True Patriot Love - Canada's Condo Crash May Be Around The Corner

00:00:00.000 today on true patriot love i'm lucky enough to have chris from real joining me and thank you

00:00:11.760 uh you recently uh moved uh to a new company so tell me about it yeah um i just felt like it was

00:00:19.120 a time for a change i also felt that um i just wanted more more impact and uh more opportunity

00:00:26.720 as well within a company that's growing extremely fast so a real broker is growing really fast it is

00:00:31.840 an american company okay um uh but it's growing really fast i just want to i just i just want to

00:00:37.920 be clear it's not an american company but but but but it's growing it's growing really fast and um

00:00:42.960 i fell in love with the the culture of the company and um and and their values and one of their values

00:00:49.840 that i love and in fact we adopted it for our real estate team which is uh work hard be kind

00:00:55.840 and uh that's that's right in line with um in fact i was i had a team meeting this saturday

00:01:02.000 and uh and we talked about it and it's like man what a what an incredible statement to make

00:01:07.040 so much so that on the back of our business cards if if anybody uses business cards anymore we still

00:01:12.160 do because we have to leave them at open open houses and stuff but anyway at the back of the

00:01:15.760 business card all we're going to have is work hard be kind because it's just such it just strikes it

00:01:22.000 strikes the chord of everyone on the team so that's one of the one of the reasons the other

00:01:26.480 reason is um you know this company invests back into the people which is us the agents and how do they

00:01:35.280 do it well um let's say that um let's say that you inspire somebody um in the way that you do business

00:01:43.360 in the way that you're you know doing your day-to-day stuff and they say hey which company do you

00:01:47.920 do you work with do you partner with and if you tell them hey it's real and uh it's not a recruiting

00:01:52.880 thing you just say i work with real and here's the contact information of some people that can tell

00:01:56.640 you what it's all about if they sign up then uh then there's some revenue share that that that you

00:02:02.160 get and then you can use that and just build a bigger business and invest in your in your brand

00:02:06.880 invest in your presence invest in your marketing campaigns and so i just find that companies that

00:02:11.840 reinvest back into the agents um i think that's the new way and and a lot of people say oh well

00:02:17.920 that you know that's um what is it called multi-level marketing yeah and i just wanna i wanna reshape

00:02:24.240 the thinking of that um for example remax invests in billboards and ads okay um real in this example they

00:02:34.480 invest in the back into us so they say hey as we're growing we're gonna share our revenue with you

00:02:41.600 guys so in instead of taking that revenue that you make us and and putting it into advertisements

00:02:46.960 and billboards and and just creating a brand we believe in the people not the brand right um and

00:02:54.000 even in the way that they structure their marketing it's it's very like agent and personal brand focused

00:02:59.920 and less of it's us it's us the brand it's us the brand so that that resonates with me and um you know

00:03:07.120 remax has a fantastic um you know like they have a fantastic business model um but i think real and

00:03:14.800 in the way that right now i believe in personal brand that's something very you know i hold that

00:03:19.920 in very high regards i think that every real estate professional should be building themselves

00:03:24.720 um and then partnering with their company not only saying this is the company that i work for because

00:03:30.480 we lose a lot of confidence and a lot of flexibility that way that's just my opinion that's just my

00:03:35.360 opinion um so so it just it resonated with me i just i love the idea of coming together building my own

00:03:42.400 personal brand within a company and uh and getting compensated for representing the brand and doing a

00:03:48.480 really good job not only that it's um it's one brokerage with 32 000 agents in it and um it's almost

00:03:57.280 impossible to not have shares of the company so um you you there's so many ways to acquire shares of the

00:04:04.320 company now imagine i love the west jet model this is a model that west jet you know west jet would give

00:04:11.120 you shares when you work right so i love that idea because now you have a tendency of not doing any

00:04:16.720 funny business when the company that you're working for you don't want the company's stock to go down

00:04:20.880 right because you have shares so now you start to you start to apply yourself a little bit more you

00:04:25.040 start to build yourself up you start to go get educated you start to you know uh support your your

00:04:30.880 fellow uh uh ally you know within the company because you want the company itself to go up so

00:04:37.600 there's just so many ways that i thought man you know what this this fits the way that i think

00:04:42.400 and and the way that i want to do business oh good yeah good you know it's interesting you when you

00:04:46.880 said be kind you know i thought about you know when i called you i said come on over i want to talk

00:04:51.040 about condos i said well what do you want to talk about condos that's you know not the greatest

00:04:55.360 topic these days but you know you must have to deal with a lot of situations where you need to be

00:05:00.960 kind yeah and you know for those of you there a lot of us are hearing about condos uh and basically

00:05:07.360 how many condos are in the market right now so there's 40 000 plus empty condos sitting across canada

00:05:14.320 um toronto and vancouver are just uh doing terrible when it comes to the condo sales market

00:05:21.040 uh condo starts have almost stopped you don't hear about many new condos coming up i think

00:05:27.760 some are finishing that because you know yeah you know the you've been through it how they finance

00:05:33.840 them you know they have to get them uh approved and then they basically have to go out and pre-sell

00:05:38.960 and you know that was where um and you know stop me if i'm wrong as i'm going through the history here

00:05:43.920 because you know it better than i you know 2015 to 2022 and the funny thing is i had just come

00:05:50.720 and let me tell you i think i've told you this story but i just got back into canada in 2011.

00:05:57.280 um 2008 the mortgage meltdown i was in the states and i went through it and i've talked about it on

00:06:02.560 shows before uh how you know i was lucky enough uh 2006 you know not to own anything got rid of

00:06:11.200 everything in the states and basically rented and rode through uh the mortgage meltdown without any

00:06:17.440 assets which i was uh and i should say on the personal side on the commercial side i did have

00:06:23.920 assets i did actually invest in a company and was building a company and had licenses and everything

00:06:30.080 else and i got that call from the bank of america like i think most americans who lived in florida at that

00:06:35.440 time saying to me that in seven days i had to pay my mortgages off so that little clause in your

00:06:44.720 agreement that basically says when you take a mortgage that they can call your mortgage at any

00:06:50.480 time which people today when i'm having dinner and i'm at dinner parties and i tell the story

00:06:56.160 one person always says to me no they can't do that with credit cards too yeah they can they can do any any

00:07:02.160 any lending uh product yeah they can call they can call it yep and in those days when the mortgage

00:07:07.040 meltdown happened and everyone was collapsing the banks got scared and they started to call our credit

00:07:12.640 so you know again i tell the story how i came back to toronto i sold everything my business partner in

00:07:18.960 the us he sold as much and levered himself as much and we tried to keep the couple businesses we could

00:07:24.560 keep in that company because we had six licenses we tried to keep what we had and we tried to keep going

00:07:29.840 and we managed to keep a couple out of six we kept a couple and we stayed alive and uh you know to the

00:07:36.160 the grace of god uh came a buyer uh shortly after and it was only out of fluke that the buyer came

00:07:43.520 knocked on our construction door or the one site and said i want to buy your company

00:07:49.440 we had dinner at don shula steakhouse shook hands and quite frankly i i my life changed forever that kind

00:07:57.040 of luck moment that that buyer found me and bought the company so you know here we are today and you

00:08:04.880 know we're talking about condos in toronto and i came back in 2011 12 i started another business and

00:08:12.240 soon after i started watching the condo market and you know from a canadian who had been through the

00:08:16.960 mortgage meltdown i kind of saw this right away i knew what was happening you know i was going to dinner

00:08:21.840 parties and i was talking to friends and they're saying you know i just bought my third condo and i

00:08:26.560 flipped condos and i was going all over and i was meeting all these guys and they're like i drive these

00:08:30.880 pre-construction condos and i sell them right because you know my the pre-construction value is now

00:08:39.200 at the the sale value so i'll grow the appreciation i'm going to make 50 100 000 before the thing even gets

00:08:46.080 going i'm going to resell it or i'm going to rent it i'm like yeah sure you sure you'll buy as many as

00:08:52.480 you want it worked yeah and they're like paul yeah yeah it worked they're like i saw it worked

00:08:57.360 they're like paul do you want to get in on it and i'm like no yeah i don't want to get in on it i see

00:09:01.520 now this ends right yeah because you know greed the challenge of greed it's when do you stop that's the

00:09:06.960 key you can't you can't stop yeah human nature i i learned this in florida you might think okay i'm

00:09:12.640 going to get out now human nature will not let you get out and the problem is the last one more

00:09:18.640 the last loss one last loss is yeah gonna wipe out all those previous games yeah so that's the

00:09:26.320 challenge so so here we go we see 2015 i'm going to dinner parties all these people are coming in

00:09:32.240 some of them are flipping some of them are buying some of them are renting you know and they're all

00:09:37.040 happy and then you know i i i you know love to build so quite frankly you know start off and i'm

00:09:44.960 going through it and uh but on the home side not on the condo side i just couldn't get the condo side

00:09:49.840 i'd seen before and i thought oh that's going to be a tough one um foreign buyers so then all of a sudden

00:09:56.240 i start to see you know i'm giving my business i start to see a ton of foreign buyers which is exactly

00:10:02.240 what i saw in florida right all of a sudden all this and in those days it was russian money came

00:10:07.840 inland into florida and they were buying up condos like no tomorrow like literally you were uh when i

00:10:14.640 got down to florida and i was looking for a place to live i was going through and basically there would

00:10:20.880 be uh one pot on the stove one glass on the counter and a mattress on the floor in one bedroom and a

00:10:30.800 couple bed sheets and a comforter nice and no furniture luxury and walking through a three

00:10:36.880 million dollar condo right and they were everywhere and i was going in and out of them looking for

00:10:43.040 looking for a place to live and looking for you know because i just got down there so my real estate

00:10:47.360 agent was trying to figure out where i fit in the market so she was showing me a bunch of price points

00:10:52.160 and this was all over and they were empty and the funny thing was at night i would uh i finally

00:10:59.840 rented a place to get started and it was beautiful it was a jose perez i don't know if you know jose

00:11:05.280 perez jose perez is a designer out of miami and he does these beautiful white uh they're like uh miami

00:11:12.960 vice uh condos they're they're spectacular but they're really cool and they're very slick and modern and

00:11:19.200 everything's kind of poured concrete inside and it's really really cool right so i rented this place and

00:11:25.200 it had uh olympic pools in the middle and a beautiful gym so here i'm going through and i'm

00:11:30.480 parking my car on my my my floor there's no cars i'm going into my car i'm going up the elevator no

00:11:37.440 people i'm going to the gym in the morning i'm working out by myself it's a dream i'm i'm training

00:11:43.360 for a triathlon i'm swimming in the pool no people wow in the morning so i'm doing my laps doing my my

00:11:49.600 workouts getting going to work i'm like and at night i'm coming home and i'm driving i'm driving

00:11:54.400 down highway one and i'm looking around i'm thinking there's no lights on so there there's no

00:12:02.800 people in the condos now i'm thinking okay snowbirds you know maybe i'm a little early i'm new to it

00:12:08.320 because you know i'm building a commercial project so i'm thinking but what's going on so over time you

00:12:13.200 know we get into the busy season still half full right so you know fast forward come back 2015 to

00:12:22.640 toronto it's very similar right so we're going downtown you're looking you're thinking yourself

00:12:27.840 coming you know go through covid and then out of covid you know we're inching into 22. you're going

00:12:35.280 downtown no people right so now we're starting to talk and then all of a sudden boom like it happens

00:12:42.160 everywhere interest rates start to climb up foreign buyer ban gets levied and foreign buyers are gone

00:12:49.840 now at this point you know they said in 2018 30 of the condos were owned by foreign buyers yeah

00:12:56.160 so now they're all gone because they're not they're they're getting they started getting taxed remember

00:13:00.720 we started putting on foreign buyer tax uh you know uh 20 25 yeah yeah every six months we were

00:13:08.160 increasing these people's taxes on on properties then we ban them so then we're done all these

00:13:15.920 condos are sitting these foreign buyers have them in the market right they can't touch them i don't 1.00

00:13:20.560 know what to do with them i'm traveling up to ottawa ottawa was a disaster by the way ottawa was even worse

00:13:26.160 when you go to ottawa it was like even to this point we were there two months ago yeah for a tpl true

00:13:32.720 patriot it still is uh like it's ghost town at night it's crazy the condos are black the condos

00:13:39.920 in the winter in ottawa are pitch black there's no one in these condos so my guess is they're all

00:13:46.800 foreign buyers so we get there uh price per square foot goes up to 1700 a square foot you know for it

00:13:54.560 was just crazy which is wonderful at the time because everyone thinks it's just going to keep going

00:13:59.600 yeah boom interest rates all of a sudden starting at half a percent then we got another jump another

00:14:06.560 jump 10 jumps in a row and we're at five percent yeah boom market explodes right and then you start

00:14:13.120 to go to those parties with people you know and there are exceptions there's people in vaughn and

00:14:17.680 north york still doing okay but then for the most part you're going to these parties and everyone's

00:14:22.080 saying do you want to buy a condo you want to get a condo you know i have a condo right no thank you

00:14:27.280 yeah i have 10 condos that's like a car right now like the minute i buy it it goes down in value yeah

00:14:34.160 so and i laugh but i'm laughing i'm crying when i'm laughing no no of course i've been through it

00:14:40.240 so many times and now in my life as you get older and i'm talking to him i say well what do you do now

00:14:47.520 like what do you do and that's what i'm asking you know and you're probably you know that whole thing

00:14:51.680 you know you got to be kind because quite frankly in your business i understand why you're saying

00:14:57.280 that because in this environment you have to be kind because people are in these weird predicaments

00:15:03.680 so what do you do like what do you do like well um i i want i want to go back to to part of what you did

00:15:13.680 to to survive when you were in florida or when you were in the in the us um and i wrote down here when

00:15:21.680 you were speaking um and this is going to sound a little you know a little jason a little halloween

00:15:26.640 but you you cut off your arm fast like you said that you sold everything and you're like wait a

00:15:31.760 second something's not so i i think a lot of times um you know you mentioned also that people were

00:15:38.880 invested in in in condos like it worked it was working right so so it's not like it was a bad idea

00:15:46.080 it was the right idea at the right time but when things shift i i think that it's more of a of a of a

00:15:55.200 you know we're talking about more of a psychological grasp that and and then and then you nailed it

00:16:00.640 you're like they can't let go and that's the problem is that nobody wants that once they see

00:16:05.520 the the the law starting to happen um they're like no it's gonna get better no it's gonna get

00:16:11.520 better the question is is that we can we can we can really tell as much of the future in terms of

00:16:17.680 what has happened in in history and we know that markets go up and down up and down and when it starts

00:16:23.360 to go down the best thing that you could do is you know this is going to sound horrible because who

00:16:28.320 wants to hear this and that's the thing the best thing that you did which is i'm selling everything

00:16:31.840 and i'm going to rent and i'm going to write it out that is the answer and but nobody wants to hear

00:16:36.800 that no nobody wants to hear that it's hard it is hard yeah it is hard because you know i put so much

00:16:41.760 effort i put so much time so and what what we're seeing is that a lot of people are in this sunk cost

00:16:47.360 fallacy thing where they're like well no i've put so much effort and time and and i put a hundred

00:16:52.880 thousand dollars of renovations and look the walls are gold chris like how am i going to get this money

00:16:57.520 back so and and and and it's like you throw up your hands and you're like look you did what you did

00:17:04.080 it was your taste you did it for whatever reason at that time we have to realize that right now

00:17:10.000 there's a there's like a little virus that's kind of taken over yeah and the faster you cut your

00:17:16.160 arm off and and stop the spreading of the loss of money virus then the better you're gonna you're

00:17:23.840 gonna do because then you can take especially if it's costing you money in that time let's say okay

00:17:29.200 that you bought a condo for 500 000 let's go let's go to 750 750 000 now it's worth 550 you're gonna

00:17:36.880 take a 200 000 haircut haircut okay now some people can't get out because it's gonna quite literally

00:17:44.240 potentially bankrupt up and some people bought it so so much earlier well no in that particular case

00:17:49.840 you're that's a 200 000 loss 100 percent yeah in some cases some people bought for 300 and it went

00:17:55.760 up to 750 value but then you have to sell at 550 that you gotta you gotta hurry up sell and get out

00:18:02.480 you gotta run immediately you gotta run so if you're in that position right now i'm speaking to everybody

00:18:07.200 in that position if you bought for less you have to sell immediately yes and here's now what you do

00:18:14.480 you have to price the listing price for where the market is going not where it is exactly that's the

00:18:23.200 key yeah because if you price where the market is and the market is on the way down you're going to

00:18:29.600 price it where it is but the market's going this way now you are overpriced in the eyes of the buyer

00:18:34.880 it doesn't matter what you think yeah you can think that your condo is worth whatever the heck it's

00:18:38.560 whatever the the market is willing to pay for it that's the value of your property period end of story

00:18:44.160 yeah 100 so you have to price if the market is trending downwards you almost have to beat out

00:18:50.880 all of the current condos that are on the market as much as it may hurt and this is the cutting off

00:18:55.920 the arm thing that i'm talking about yeah it may hurt a little bit more but then you're going to

00:19:00.080 offload the condo and then you'll start to finally you can bandage up your arm and you can stop the

00:19:05.680 bleeding the hemorrhaging yeah right and that's that's ultimately what needs to happen i think a lot of

00:19:10.800 it is is is mental in in my opinion because the stats are there okay there's there's there's a

00:19:16.720 lot of professionals out there that can tell you where the market is where it's going but then people

00:19:22.160 don't want to make decisions they they see what what they need to do and they're like no i'm not

00:19:26.080 willing to do that are you crazy i just sold the con i mean last in three years ago it was selling for

00:19:31.520 two hundred thousand dollars more i'm not gonna do it yeah and then what do you like it's so that's all

00:19:36.000 mental right there's nothing that can be done there and now it's up to the person to either

00:19:42.240 bleed out or to stop the hemorrhaging by offloading well it's interesting because now 81 of the

00:19:49.600 investors is investors with mortgages are losing 600 a month right i believe that just by only 100

00:19:56.640 that's what the stats are telling us now and it's interesting the way you say it chris because you

00:20:00.720 know i i look at the comparison and this is kind of a u.s canadian comparison and like having lived

00:20:05.840 through the 2008 debacle americans are much faster at making that decision canadians seem to be

00:20:12.960 struggling right now and i it's interesting to watch because they're like hold hold hold and and it you

00:20:21.600 know it's it's kind of uh and i'm looking at it i'm thinking okay you're all holding the inventory

00:20:29.200 is growing so what you're doing is so you know as as another thousand come on to market you're all

00:20:35.680 holding you're all losing your 600 and whatever a month yeah i mean it's just price is dropping

00:20:43.600 canadians are holding on to hope they are holding on that that's it they're making decisions on hold

00:20:48.080 that's a bad plan right but americans are more aggressive and they're gonna say hold on a second

00:20:52.320 i'm taking control of this thing whether it hurts or not i'm gonna hobble into the next century i

00:20:57.200 don't care but i'm gonna be alive canadians are like oh you know it's his fate you know i'm just

00:21:01.360 gonna ride it out and see what happens um i believe in the government i believe in what everybody else

00:21:05.840 does for me but they're not willing to take the bull by the horns per se i was i was amazed in the

00:21:11.360 meltdown so what i saw in the meltdown which is very wild for me to see is in florida of course

00:21:17.600 this is where the worst impacts you know fannie mae and all the craziness was the it was the hub of 1.00

00:21:22.480 the meltdown um i was shocked how fast americans loaded up their u-hauls

00:21:31.280 yeah and headed out and headed out and restarted again they literally just they pulled the parachute

00:21:36.640 and they were in u-hauls and it was almost like i remember i remember going back to sell coming back

00:21:43.680 to canada selling trying to get some a bunch of cash together i remember the whole rigamarole the

00:21:49.040 news everything it was it was very like uh scary i can tell you it's crazy scary one of the scariest

00:21:55.040 things i ever went through business-wise in my life we're heading back and i'm watching the news

00:22:00.160 i got back to florida and i was driving to one of my properties and literally it was like a movie

00:22:06.080 the doors of the homes were flapping open the the the people were in pulling the wire stealing the

00:22:13.120 the copper wire from the uh the pools were all green uh the security gates were open there were

00:22:19.920 no security guards at the at the secure uh developments they were all gone and i was

00:22:26.160 driving through and you're just seeing empty home empty subdivision empty and u-hauls kind of going down

00:22:31.840 the road in front of me just heading out people had thrown their keys on the table they were moving

00:22:37.360 on they were heading back to be with their families for a while they were setting up to restructure and

00:22:42.800 i was like oh wow this is crazy but they were very aggressive the way they did it we're watching

00:22:47.760 another thing here we're watching this slow kind of malaise as people sit and they're like kind of

00:22:52.160 walking around they're like you know things came back and the funny thing which i so this is the

00:22:57.200 interesting thing is they got ready for this show because people are saying now well you know

00:23:03.040 construction workers there's equal number of construction workers going to be out of job which

00:23:06.880 makes sense yeah there were 40 000 plus guys building condos now they're going to be out of

00:23:12.000 work makes sense they're going to be okay some of them are going to retire the rest of them quite

00:23:16.400 frankly are going to move to other jurisdictions sure the one good thing about the construction trade

00:23:20.720 is you learn to be mobile and you learn to be agile so they'll pick up and they'll go they'll sell their

00:23:26.000 homes here whatever leave their families here go to there and live by themselves they'll figure it

00:23:30.720 out yeah it won't be the greatest but they're tough enough to do it right so they'll go they're saying

00:23:36.880 okay but then there's going to be an undersupply in 2020 so as this inventory kind of rolls off

00:23:44.080 in 2029 2030 there is going to be a market again and the market will be your condo will be valuable again

00:23:52.720 except for the except for the little condos they'll never be there so those will never be valuable i

00:23:59.440 think we've all kind of wrote those off anyone who bought a 500 square foot or 650 yeah you you just

00:24:05.920 got to say goodbye to all the cash you put into that cash that's just a total write-off right there's

00:24:11.360 no point i think everyone's agreed on that so now and for sure now it's going to come back so my question

00:24:17.360 which i can't see right now so this is what i'm not seeing i don't see how that i know that's hope

00:24:23.760 i know it's another hope signaling okay you you know you got to make it to 2029 so hold on because

00:24:30.160 it's coming back because the supply will kind of work its way through what's going to make it work

00:24:35.840 itself through we we have almost zero birth rates so we're not it's not like we're having tons of kids

00:24:41.920 or kids they're not like me anymore that's for sure everyone has like none or one that's exactly

00:24:47.120 so it's not like we're not immigration quite frankly is netting the opposite way so it's starting to

00:24:52.800 there's more people you know leaving than there are coming so and we still have people coming to

00:24:58.320 the country but the people coming in the country they're not buying homes no they're renting right 1.00

00:25:04.800 yeah they're renting they don't have the money to buy and quite frankly they're smart not to buy

00:25:08.160 so they're not coming here with enough money to put it down payment down to you know get their

00:25:14.560 family in a good neighborhood they're coming in and renting and they're trying to get on their feet

00:25:18.960 yep so and there's i don't think unless you're seeing a group i don't think there's any group in

00:25:24.640 the world right now and when i mean the world there's any group that's going to immigrate here that's

00:25:30.080 going to bring and when i say that you know the russian group that came to florida right they were

00:25:36.160 well healed they were buying two million three million they were buying with cash they're buying

00:25:41.040 with you know down huge down payments you know they were moving with lots of fluid money um they

00:25:49.200 were then selling those and moving inland so there was a lot of that going on south american money there

00:25:55.280 were places that people were coming with with cash boatloads cash the groups we're seeing come now

00:26:02.240 they're not bringing boatloads of cash yeah you know we're not seeing those those foreign buyers

00:26:06.800 coming in with large sums so where is the bottom to this and 29 i don't see what props i and i think

00:26:15.440 that's the thing we need to be uh reasonable about now with people we need to say okay that might happen

00:26:21.120 that's speculation and i think you got to kind of think through this now because 29 comes if they think

00:26:28.240 the 50 000 condos have worked through and now there's zero supply of condos in the market

00:26:34.400 i think they might be kidding themselves at that point i think we're still going to be going through

00:26:38.640 the damage of this and people are still going to be looking to rent them now there could be a shortage

00:26:46.160 of rental properties down the road if we let enough people in the country but you know it it's becoming

00:26:54.640 less and less uh interesting for canadians and interesting for immigrants to come here right now 1.00

00:27:01.920 so canada is not as uh you know fruitful for anyone and so the our immigration process is slowing and

00:27:09.920 it's naturally slowing you can see it and people are starting to figure that out so where where does it

00:27:15.920 end where is the bot i guess you know and you've probably been asked this before where is the natural

00:27:21.920 bottom to this okay when when when i i'm gonna talk right now about the the the overall value of of

00:27:31.120 where homes are it including um detached semis townhouses condos everything okay right now we have

00:27:38.720 we have essentially gone down to the right trend line um and i wish i had the graph to show you but

00:27:46.240 but but we are right about where home prices are to be and and so it's it's about right the problem is

00:27:53.200 that people can't still can't afford them right so okay so so so that's that so now will home prices

00:27:59.680 continue to drop so that it matches um you know our our economic salaries like our salaries i don't i don't

00:28:08.640 think they're gonna keep going down i think at some point um we need to start making more money um uh

00:28:16.080 and i don't know how that part of the economy works but but we we need to like the average salary is like

00:28:24.640 fifty four thousand dollars a year like it just it's just impossible to buy anything to even rent

00:28:32.000 with fifty four thousand dollars for one person okay so you go and you get uh you know you get

00:28:36.880 married all right so now let's say two averages a hundred thousand all right that's barely it but

00:28:42.560 you're still not affording a home unless you're going to windsor right but if you live in toronto

00:28:46.000 and you're making the average and you have to drive to windsor it's just not going to work okay cool

00:28:50.320 so where are the prices right now i think the prices are pretty stable i don't think we're going to see

00:28:57.280 a spike and i don't think we're going to see a massive drop um let's see let's see if i'm right

00:29:04.320 three years from now i don't i i i i think they they they're going to continue to go up slightly the

00:29:12.800 way that it should go up the three to five percent a year i think these these these massive you know um

00:29:19.360 changes of of price points i don't i don't think we're going to see it but then again i can't predict

00:29:23.280 another pandemic or whatever the world war five or six or seven or how many world wars are going to

00:29:28.400 happen and how many countries are i i don't know how that's going to work out but i from my perspective

00:29:33.280 of average home price we're right at the but but i think what do you think about the the average

00:29:40.560 salaries in canada in comparison to i saw another chart before you i saw another chart where i think it

00:29:47.840 was 1990 92 93 92 when i came to canada that the average home compared to the average salary like

00:29:56.320 you can pay off your house in like five years or something and i was like man this is this is

00:29:59.920 incredible and then everything went up properly with the home prices but then the salaries just started to

00:30:06.560 not increase so how does that work because where is the bottom i mean can can home prices go

00:30:14.960 down further i don't think so based on what you're telling me of what you saw in the us and florida

00:30:22.080 you are probably of the school of thought that you're like uh-huh yes it can because i've seen

00:30:26.880 the doors flapping right so so that like it's funny you're here asking me questions and i'm actually

00:30:31.920 learning from you and i'm like oh my god can we go down lower and you're like yes it can so now the

00:30:37.040 question is we need to we need to match salaries i don't i don't think anything happens as long as we go

00:30:42.640 up in salaries because then people can afford it and then we don't have a problem now if people can

00:30:47.360 will continue to not afford it then that's really the only thing if salaries don't rise

00:30:53.760 unfortunately the the home prices are going to continue to at some point there needs to be they

00:30:58.240 people need to be able to afford now they can't so what do they do they rent right okay now go back

00:31:03.120 to condos can the condos keep going down um i'm gonna i'm gonna toss a wrench in the engine here okay

00:31:10.880 okay i believe that right now yeah i believe that right now if you are renting who who is a condo good

00:31:19.360 for i believe right now if you're in a basement renting if this is you if you're somewhere in a

00:31:24.960 basement in the second floor and you're renting and you have a hundred two hundred thousand dollars

00:31:28.320 saved up in the last five years yeah and i i strongly believe that it's actually better to go and buy

00:31:35.040 a condo at a massive discount right now and not rent than to then to rent if this is for the people

00:31:42.400 that have the money i still believe so what am i saying i guess what i'm saying is that for the right

00:31:47.520 person condos right now are a good investment because you're getting in at the bottom and i do believe

00:31:56.160 that they may increase in value but not that the way that to the way that it was before i think

00:32:02.960 like like i said at the beginning of this of this we're right at the at the at the correct price

00:32:09.520 point the average price point of the real estate market so there's not that much fluctuation if

00:32:15.680 condos go up they're gonna go up in the three to five percent annually that property should go up if

00:32:21.520 you maintain it if you you know three to five percent annual increases is is good you know that that's

00:32:26.560 fair that's right you know it makes sense right um but we're not going to see a a jolt in i mean the

00:32:33.200 prices have been corrected i guess is what is what i'm trying to say um i think we had a lot of growth

00:32:39.920 in canada through immigration i'm an immigrant so you know um canada brought you know allowed us to come

00:32:47.280 here and and then we built our lives and and so forth so i think that's still the right way i think canada

00:32:53.120 still needs to let people in but it's who you let in right so i know we're going back and forth into

00:32:58.560 like i mean who am i to tell canada what to do but but from a perspective of what i'm seeing in in

00:33:03.120 real estate and people being able to come in and afford and be contributors because i teach my kids

00:33:08.080 when you leave this world you have to leave it in a better place and you found it right right that

00:33:12.480 that is that is the essence of us being here and and and sucking up and eating up the resources we

00:33:18.000 have to leave this place better so that the following people can continue on and then they leave it

00:33:22.240 better and then that's how we're going to grow right so we do need more like we do need immigration but

00:33:27.280 we need the right people i think we need we need the right filters to get the right people in here

00:33:31.360 that want to invest that want to grow the country that want to bring in their culture but also adapt

00:33:36.160 to the way that we're doing things and like you know amalgamate you know kind of like merge into

00:33:41.280 what we're doing and at the same time bring those colors of culture um uh and i'm telling you this

00:33:46.160 because i'm not you know i'm from venezuela you know west indian roots and guyanese and venezuela

00:33:51.760 so i mean i brought my colors into this into this country and everybody else brings their colors and

00:33:56.160 then that's why it's such a beautiful place to be in um however nobody wants to be here because

00:34:00.240 it's too cold there i said it i said it i said it i'm going on record nobody wants to be here it's

00:34:05.440 too cold but we can't beat that so um it's still a good country but man we need some help well no no i'm

00:34:11.280 with you and you know it's a couple of things because you kind of hit on a few things there

00:34:15.280 that i want to go back to yeah so you asked me kind of what i had seen so this is interesting

00:34:20.400 i saw condos that were three and four hundred thousand go down to seventy five thousand oh my god

00:34:26.480 right so this is where i believe it's going to land i think we're in a prolonged fall because of the

00:34:33.680 way our psychology is kind of making this go longer than we saw there um but i think it does fall now

00:34:43.440 the good news is it started at 75 and it grew back up again right so then in florida if you could wait

00:34:50.880 it out then i guess i guess that's the other and you asked me actually initially you said what what

00:34:55.280 do people do really there's only two options you get out fast or you wait it out no the question if

00:35:01.840 you can if you can if you can hold and yeah yeah yeah you don't sorry continue i interrupted you but

00:35:07.040 i just wanted to lay that out and the reason what happens is is people are turning their keys back

00:35:11.920 it's actually halving the price and then halving the price so i've watched this happen it's kind

00:35:16.720 of a weird syndrome that i think we're about to go through we're still about to go through as people

00:35:21.440 turn back their keys right they turn back their keys the banks uh literally drive down the price

00:35:28.320 so the banks actually resell again for less because as you mentioned and you you brilliantly said it

00:35:33.680 earlier and i right away you kind of got in front of me on it whoops you know it being in front of

00:35:38.560 the curve yeah banks are way in front of the curve because they don't have that risk scenario right

00:35:43.280 they're not they're getting an asset back and their only goal is to sell that asset yep absolutely

00:35:48.080 right away they get the asset back half half and then that drives everyone down to the half and then

00:35:53.760 what happens is when everyone settles at the half and if you haven't hit the bottom yet it's another

00:35:57.920 half and then it's another and i watched it half half half in florida so that was kind of my experience

00:36:03.280 in in the florida market when i was there and i think we're about to kind of still go through

00:36:07.360 that on the condo side the house side i don't know where we're at so that one's a little more difficult

00:36:12.400 for me uh and it depends on some decisions the government makes um you know these these crazy bylaw

00:36:18.880 decisions i think are right now are not needed and i think they're better to sort of get rid of them

00:36:25.120 all uh building buildings with no parking building more buildings around density you know yeah i think

00:36:31.280 they're better to say goodbye that's the flavor that's the flavor of the year yeah the problem is

00:36:36.000 they're just anyone who's interested in putting money into the uh single housing market is so worried

00:36:43.680 right now with all this craziness especially in toronto and vancouver so i think you have all those

00:36:48.720 issues to deal with then you have so this is what i saw there too then you have the issue which no one

00:36:54.320 ever thinks about right is maintenance fees on condos right so this crazy so and people talk to

00:37:01.120 me about it all the time they say you know what do i do now and it's funny i go to parties now and

00:37:06.400 people say you know my my condo fees are going up and i said well you're living in a building i you know

00:37:12.160 the the gentleman i rented off uh in miami when i was there at the time was a school teacher

00:37:20.480 and he called me up one day he says you know i'm losing money on this do you want to buy it yeah i

00:37:25.520 said no i wouldn't want to buy this condo and he said i love this car i know he's got a nice kind of

00:37:29.920 he says i know but after my maintenance fees because the building's half empty yeah i'm i'm struggling

00:37:35.440 away paying the fees on it now i can't cover the mortgage now i can't cover the maintenance fees on it

00:37:41.120 um and in canada now we're in the same issue and what happens and i didn't even really know this

00:37:47.120 what happens when a condo association can't cover their maintenance fees

00:37:55.360 well it's gotta it's gotta it it's the same thing i mean it's almost like the the the corporation itself

00:38:02.240 um uh has to has to look for that money and they're gonna go to the owners of the the the like

00:38:10.000 everyone's gonna be liable all the owners of that so if they can't cover they're gonna go back to the

00:38:14.480 owners and this is called a special assessment and they're going to say hey look guys we're um

00:38:19.840 150 000 in the hole so now i need everyone in this building to give me 15 000 to cover this this so

00:38:26.080 i mean you know like the owners are on the hook that's the end of it right the corporation will

00:38:30.560 come back to the owners and say hey guys um we don't have enough money so now you guys all need to

00:38:35.360 spit it up right yeah and if you can't pay then they lean your assets and then they have to go

00:38:39.440 after the payment right so yeah it becomes and that's what i saw in like florida but it was so

00:38:44.080 funny because the you know being so litigations in america it's fast oh oh yeah it's like oh yeah

00:38:50.800 they're in and they're getting like your liens going you're getting the money or and that's that's

00:38:55.360 falling right so then i saw it so we're still not there yet no i'm still about to see that you know

00:39:00.880 know those ottawa condos i was talking about those trucks we're still about to see kind of all that

00:39:05.520 kind of what march out and then we'll see the what happens after that so as that kind of moves through

00:39:12.640 now the good thing about all this is it hits the bottom then all of a sudden you will get to a level

00:39:19.680 where people come back in then there's that then you start to see then you start to see your

00:39:26.000 grocery so it does build up those u-hauls start to drive back down that you know and as i was there

00:39:31.920 i started to see it again which was it was kind of funny we had dark days and those businesses i

00:39:37.600 mentioned but then over time we started to see people start driving around picking up homes restoring

00:39:44.080 rebuilding and coming back and it gets better but you know you got to go through those together but we

00:39:49.360 still have a ways to go in that market to get there and you know i i think the good news is we will

00:39:55.440 get to an area will a lot of people be impacted i think they will yeah yeah i know there's going to

00:40:01.360 be you know uh a major impact and i think that i think that the impact that people are most afraid

00:40:08.480 of is um the change of lifestyle that happens when you lose an asset or when you lose your shirt on

00:40:13.440 something i think that's really people are used to a certain lifestyle eating a certain way um having

00:40:20.080 a certain brand of car wearing a certain set of clothing um most people are afraid to go

00:40:25.280 down to neanderthal uh uh lifestyles like everyone's like no i came from that i don't want to go back

00:40:31.200 to and and that is like what what gets their heart palpitating faster they don't want to go so i think

00:40:37.040 it's just at times it's a status thing and at times is i can't survive but um there was an exercise that

00:40:44.800 i did with um with an agent that i was coaching um not currently anyway that's irrelevant but i was

00:40:50.720 coaching him in the past and um uh there was a deal massive deal that he was working on it was a

00:40:57.520 commercial deal and he said to me man if this doesn't go through i just don't know what to do

00:41:03.840 i don't know what i'm going to do like i mean it's just you know it's going to be so hard i'm

00:41:07.440 going to have to have a discussion with my wife and it's going to be very difficult 0.94

00:41:11.280 and then i i said can we can we play that out can we play out what happens when it doesn't work right

00:41:17.440 and he goes okay go and i'm like all right so the deal doesn't go through what happens

00:41:21.920 i put all my eggs in this basket man if it doesn't go through then i won't have this is a big big big

00:41:26.160 transaction it's going to pay me about 180 a thousand um and i've been working on this deal for

00:41:31.760 the last you know six to eight months i may not be able to pay my my house okay cool and then what

00:41:38.400 happens i gotta sell my house okay cool and then and then what happens well i probably make you know

00:41:45.200 there's about 100 and he said like 120 that he would have made on it um he had just bought the

00:41:50.160 house and like okay cool so you have 120 and then what and then go find a place to rent i'm like uh

00:41:55.440 okay and then you do that um and you find a place to rent okay you still have money and then what

00:41:59.920 well and i gotta rebuild okay keep going and then what and then i don't know i mean nothing and i'm a

00:42:06.320 good stop there what what so so did you lose did you lose one of your he has two kids did you lose any

00:42:11.600 of your kids no are your kids still going to school yeah would you still be able to feed them

00:42:15.360 yeah would your wife be okay yeah she works okay good so so what what happened like there were some

00:42:21.520 changes there were some fluctuations in lifestyle and things like that but what what exactly happened

00:42:26.320 like what are we afraid about exactly like if it works if it doesn't work it doesn't matter

00:42:30.240 play it out go write it all the way down and then use all that knowledge that you acquired and ride it

00:42:36.080 right right back up and now with that knowledge you're going to be able to make even better decisions to

00:42:41.040 triple quadruple and 10x right so so i think um people need to believe in themselves a little bit

00:42:47.760 more if you are smart enough i'm speaking to the people that are feeling um suffocated right now with

00:42:53.200 this decision if you were smart enough to be an investor and have a property um that's particular

00:42:58.720 well i'm speaking to the investors if you're smart enough to make an investment and get a condo

00:43:02.640 and you're going to take a loss you got to believe in yourself that if you were smart enough to get

00:43:07.120 there and make the investment you'll be smart enough to take the hit and bring yourself right back

00:43:10.880 into it after you um in some cases there are people that are maybe you know 70 years old and and

00:43:16.480 they're like well i don't have that time um uh that's a different consideration that we have to

00:43:21.680 look at because of course time is is a big is a big factor here right they may not have the time to

00:43:26.480 to wait it out so they have to just take the loss and write it off and you know get creative with how

00:43:33.200 they either keep it or or sell it you know whatever the case may be um you know there's there's a lot of

00:43:39.760 decisions people have to believe in in themselves if they feel suffocated because of the decision to

00:43:44.960 lose they have to believe in themselves so they can come back from it right and if you are you

00:43:48.880 know i always say if you're a baby boomer and you went through the those great errors and you saw that

00:43:53.040 huge appreciation you're probably in the shoes of someone who you mentioned earlier who is basically

00:43:59.040 working off of a lower platform and just has to go back you know they're not going to make x appreciation

00:44:06.080 they're going to just sell it for what they paid for it sell it for a little more than what they

00:44:10.000 paid that's true they're going to have to yeah you know if to your point and that's the resilience i

00:44:14.960 saw i guess at the you know kind of i don't want to be too negative but what i did see and the good

00:44:21.360 thing coming out of that experience i saw people who were resilient enough to pick up understood they

00:44:27.280 needed to pick up understood they took a risk yeah they did take a big jump they did and they knew it

00:44:34.240 they weren't they weren't naive to it they didn't sit in the bar at night and tell you a story

00:44:38.560 um you know they knew and you know it was interesting i saw uh before the the bust i

00:44:46.480 saw a huge bubble where people were living off those assets like they were uh cash

00:44:55.120 so they were boring off them they were living off them and they were over leveraged oh my god

00:45:00.320 they were living amazing lives they were flying around they were going on these vacations all of

00:45:05.520 a sudden that stopped and to your point you know and you were that scenario with that gentleman you're

00:45:10.000 talking about is so amazing but all of a sudden it stopped and for a while there you saw in america

00:45:15.040 americans didn't take vacations they didn't eat out very much so all the things they were doing they

00:45:19.760 stopped for a while absolutely and they had to retool and you know we're about to see yeah we're seeing

00:45:24.640 it slowly like if you notice uh and and the indicators that you see what they report on every

00:45:30.640 quarter restaurants very few few people are eating in restaurants right now you know they're talking

00:45:36.800 about a huge amount of actually restaurants shutting this year yeah even more so than i see it i see it

00:45:43.200 they're starting so we're seeing some of it now yeah because they're paying the extra 600 a month and

00:45:48.720 everything but being resilient enough to to your point to say okay enough's enough i'm out before the

00:45:54.000 bottom hits yes because if you do ride it to the bottom it's critical yeah the people ride to the

00:45:58.800 bottom it does have life altering effects so it's good to kind of cut your cut your loss now yeah and

00:46:05.760 that's what i've learned through the but but the nice part is they will pick up they will go again

00:46:11.440 they'll move for a while and they will come back and i i think your your comment about how they had

00:46:16.480 the knowledge to identify an opportunity it might not have worked but now they have even more

00:46:22.320 knowledge if that opportunity comes again yeah it'd be to be in out not to overstay not to get greedy

00:46:28.320 not to do the things they did and quite frankly hopefully it'll help them down the road yeah there

00:46:32.560 and there and there's other financial benefits of a loss okay we we we know we know very well that

00:46:38.960 there's write-offs that you can you know there's there's um you know reach out to the government see

00:46:43.760 what's available and things like that i don't know of the maybe i should actually note to self i'm

00:46:48.480 going to look and see if there's some government help for people that have taken a massive haircut

00:46:52.400 i don't know that there is but like if you've lost a significant amount you know and it's like

00:46:56.960 you just bought it and it's like you know you're you're going to be in a in a tough position maybe

00:47:01.120 there's some there is there is investment income if it's an investment income set up in a company and

00:47:06.080 you're lost down the road if you make money you can offset so there's a there's a period of time it

00:47:11.440 changes all the time but yeah so and and and well not that this is the topic but that's another reason why

00:47:16.640 if you're making an investment it's important to put it under a corporation because there are these

00:47:20.000 benefits that you can oh yeah that you can have yeah yeah learn so so then you don't look at a loss

00:47:25.440 as a as a loss you just look at as one of the plays in the chessboard that you're playing of life

00:47:32.160 right okay i lost the pond shocks let me try and get another you know let me try to eat something else

00:47:38.240 you know like okay like it's it's okay like you you know the king is not down yet the queen is not

00:47:43.600 you know you got your your main pieces sometimes you take a hit on a particular piece you sacrifice

00:47:48.560 certain things but the knowledge the information that you got and things like that like i mean you

00:47:52.880 know the the the silver lining is that you're a much wiser and better investor um than you ever were

00:47:58.480 before i think we learn better through through the losses and um you know at times i think the winds are

00:48:07.120 are the we put a magnifying glass to the winds because that's what we show off on instagram sure

00:48:14.080 but like the losses is really where we triumph as as as a society that's where we really learn right

00:48:22.000 you know i had within the covid times you know there's a company i was involved in and it went um

00:48:30.240 you know i went belly up and and and i you know i lost a significant you know over over half a million

00:48:36.240 dollars right so it was it was a tough i had to swallow that i was in depression mode for for

00:48:41.200 three months and four days before i slapped myself out of it and i'm like let's go man like there's

00:48:46.160 more to do yeah that's that's okay and and at times i i you know not that this is a good answer either but

00:48:51.520 at times i went spiritual where i'm like it's okay i lost that because god knows that i can afford to lose

00:48:57.440 that so i need to understand that that is a loss that i was able to to to to take because i'm worth more

00:49:03.600 and i can do more right so sometimes you have to get in your head yeah um uh you know whether

00:49:08.400 you're a businessman or not whether you're a business woman or not i think we have to tell

00:49:12.160 ourselves you know good things to get us past these dark times you know it's not always going to be

00:49:17.440 sunshines and rainbows but hey as long as you can wake up and fight another day i think you know

00:49:21.520 um we're in good shape well chris you know the next show i want to do with you yes i want to do a

00:49:26.560 show where we talk about 2029 2030. i'm in yeah you got it speculation yeah that would be incredible

00:49:34.880 um imagine if we get it all right i know oh my gosh that would be like that's why i want to record

00:49:39.520 have you seen the sword of the stone yeah you know when merlin opens the hole and says he's gonna fall

00:49:43.200 right here you know and he falls right right there like that that's what that moment would be like if

00:49:47.200 we get it right i'm gonna say if because the truth is is that it's all speculation at the end of the

00:49:53.200 day right paul like i mean we're here we're looking at some facts we're looking at some ideas

00:49:57.520 life experiences i mean you're full of it you know i come here and i'm and i'm like you know

00:50:02.160 i'm almost inspired with all the information that you have you you come here to to to interview me

00:50:07.760 and i end up asking you questions like can i learn from you right because of that experience

00:50:11.600 that you have so thank you so much for having me it's always a pleasure thank you

True Patriot Love - February 20, 2026

Canada's Condo Crash May Be Around The Corner

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