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True Patriot Love
- October 04, 2025
Canada's GDP: Recession or Political Spin? The Truth Behind the Numbers
Episode Stats
Length
31 minutes
Words per Minute
183.88673
Word Count
5,719
Sentence Count
31
Hate Speech Sentences
8
Summary
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Transcript
Transcript is generated with
Whisper
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).
Hate speech classification is done with
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today was my lucky day i was in studio and i was able to do a podcast earlier with anthony fury and
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mike wixon and i asked them to stick around because quite frankly i had an issue that really
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bothered me over the weekend and i wanted to talk about it and i wanted them to kind of bend an ear
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and i wanted them to listen to the concern so friday i'm getting ready for a big weekend you
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know all happy getting packed up ready to go long weekend labor day ready for some fun and i look at
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the news and it says gdp came in and it's basically shrunk by 1.6 percent and then i start looking at
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the headlines and the headlines i gotta take off my glasses can i gotta read them to you canadian
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economy shrinks 1.6 percent in the second quarter as u.s tariffs squeeze exports canadian gdp
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shrinks in the second quarter but economists aren't fretting recession yet right on the verge of a
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recession trump terrorist slam slam canada new gdp numbers show canada's second quarter gdp
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contracted 1.6 percent sparking fears of a looming technical recession so now we're in a recession
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right so and you know you guys have been in media way longer than i have so i'm looking at this and
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i'm thinking friday right we dropped the gdp numbers right we send the message to the whole nation
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that watch out we're in a recession you know we have another quarter then we're going to be in
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recession we have to take recession measures what the heck are we doing guys like we're well do you
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think that they were actually sharing this with the nation on a friday before a holiday weekend
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i think they were duly burying this uh at the last week in a summer maybe maybe i'm wrong yeah but then
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to paul's point thinking it over talking it over on the long weekend it's also given people something
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to talk about from the family barbecue circuit so it's an interesting one really what what what the
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push here is in terms of this adding the trump factor onto it we know whether it's in ontario
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politics there federal politics everybody loves be scared of trump be worried don't worry about what's
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going on over here don't talk about the economy here let's talk about all the trump factor whatever
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you think of the guy like him or dislike him there's a slight of hand trick i think going on in the way
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we we talk about this well is it you know we're going so now so this is interesting so coming out
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of the weekend we're having a meeting with our cabinet to talk about going into the house on
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september 15th right no budget has been dropped we haven't seen the annual report for 2025 so is it
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softening us up for hey you know what the results might not be that good but it was done to save you
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right so now if you're going to avoid a recession you know we need to make these expenditures we need
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to do those things i'm like okay enough already do we really need to do this anymore and i know
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governments do it you know if i have bad news i drop it at christmas i drop it before vacations i drop
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it before but aren't we getting a little old for this isn't this kind of haven't we played this game
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and i know like that's a political game that is played on and on again but you know it got me and i'm
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thinking oh my goodness i cannot believe we're doing this again so i uh it's so funny that you
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say this because i still maintain and i've watched uh uh mayor olivia chow i've watched it happen in
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other municipalities at the municipal level where laws are changed at the very last minute on a friday
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they're announced the vote is taken in private and suddenly we're into the weekend when you don't
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have a hope of getting your counselor or your mp or whomever you've received bad news here's bad news
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good luck have a nice weekend exactly so i jumped and nick if you go to the next slide so i right away
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and my poor wife she's probably wondering where i went right away i jump on my computer and i i go
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go to the next slide nick the i go to it and i say to myself okay like if i look at the numbers
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and i'm trying to think why did it go down so right away my my accounting break goes on i said okay
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went down 1.6 percent right and this is kind of a uh uh quarter over quarter analysis that's how they
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do the gdp analysis and i think okay so what went wrong right because last quarter we had record
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quarters right we had records so we were doing two percent uh gdp growth month on month and where
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did we go astray so of course right business investment down well it makes sense business
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investment right now based on the tariffs i and i agree on the tariffs analysis goes up and down like
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a toilet seat right donald trump says one thing we all you know we all run through reactionary yeah
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you know i hate this quite frankly you know we get these news reports uh there's a discussion
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happening today on tariffs right i'm like okay all right pause don't open the new plant yeah
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you know you're like why either they need the product or they don't yeah now i found it funny
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because you guys you know you guys saw it too right after they make the friday announcement what happens
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in the u.s well they announced that he lost the court decision right yeah so for trump's tariffs in the
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first place they mean nothing why why how do these numbers reflect so badly on us doing what we do as
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canadians i hate to say it we overreact i think a little bit yeah can i go off on a deep end here
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and i want to ask you as as the accountant here so we've talked before about immigration challenges
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creating economic challenges for the people who are newly arrived and for other categories of people
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i feel like i know that more and more people are operating off the grid in the way they conduct
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their their economics their business their jobs both like decent people just off the grid and
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then organized crime proliferating massively how accurate are these numbers great question how much
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of a black market gdp even is there well the interesting so you know the interesting thing is
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it's a blunt tool so and if you look at gdp so gdp was something it's interesting because gdp was
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created after world war ii they started tracking gdps around the world to get a kind of a base you know
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well-being of the world but it doesn't gdp itself is not a good indicator of how countries are doing
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because it's not foreign exchange or inflation adjusted right so you know i i started kind of
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digging in over the weekend because it was bothering me i'm thinking why the heck are we still
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reporting gdp why are we calling recessions on gdp and quite frankly our gdp has not been super
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great for years so it was this isn't a new we're trying to make like this is a new uh uh we're in a
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downturn yeah yeah that's been created because of tariffs and everything else we have been in a
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non-productive cycle for quite a long time and you know i've talked about it with with both of
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you on different occasions but the real real standard to look at is gdp which is uh purchasing
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power parity adjusted so that's one where you actually go and you take a look at your uh basket
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of goods for a country and then you take out foreign exchange and you make it like a common dollar
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and you inflation uh uh adjust it and then you come to basically a a dollar to dollar or apple to
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apple comparison so because gdp comparing between countries quite frankly is is has a huge foreign
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exchange swing based on currency makes sense values so really not a good indicator you can inside a
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country you can look at it but it's a very basic indicator so but we use it kind of for these giant
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statements that try to shift us to how we're going or whether we're going to recessions well you know
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what i got to tell you so and this is a crazy story i'm in florida right and i'm uh have six businesses
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in the panhandle of florida and i'm cooking life is good and i'm doing really well and all of a sudden
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i start to notice uh some weird real estate happenings you know people are buying multiple
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condos and the unemployment rate is going up but gdp is looking good right gdp in america is growing at
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one two percent every quarter i'm thinking wow well okay you know i'm younger you know maybe more
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i'm naive i'm thinking man like it is pretty good right i think i'm okay uh i'm taking uh i'm levering
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myself to buy more businesses because i'm thinking that's the right thing to do because i'm gonna
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a hot turn on this business it's the right time to be running this business and so i get up to six
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licenses and things are moving and canada is showing a downturn in gdp so i'm sitting there
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i'm looking at saying wow i'm glad i left canada you know i'm now down in florida i got everything
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happening the mortgage meltdown hits right we get wiped out i get a phone call from the bank of america
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and a banker is a personal friend of mine uh went golfing with them ate dinner with them knew his
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family so i'm really sorry paul he says i gotta call all your loans business personal everything
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and you have seven days to pay everything wow right so i come back to canada i basically
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lever sell whatever i can everything i go back and i try to keep as many businesses as i can
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my partner my business partner is from florida he's doing the same thing and we're running like
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running like crazy um but you know the gdp indicators were all wrong right because we saw
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you didn't see that on the horizon no it's a number of factors so the top line number says you're doing
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great but the banker says we're closing shop we're closing shop and we were done right and i'm like
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man that really sucks and mark says to me he says well welcome to america right i said no i'm not
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welcome to america the lesson i learned quite frankly it's a number of indicators right so
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you know if you're unemployment if you're housing all these things got to be added up you know
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is it look you know great in canada right now you know i think we got to be concerned um but i think
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you know putting out something about gdp before the long weekend without looking at the other factors
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and talking also saying and this this isn't really a recession so just so you know nobody said
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recession well it's funny bloomberg you know the the only one that was the anti-recession over the
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weekend was bloomberg right so which is interesting too because i think we got to be a little bit
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cautious because you know i just know from my experience of that meltdown right they want to get
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their money out right so it's the last people that want to keep buying keep buying and they've
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recently been stung they don't forget yeah exactly so they're the ones who want to exit first so they
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left leave you in the game right so it's funny it's if if it's a pump and dump scheme with one stock
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it's illegal if it's with the entire economy yeah okay it's just called life exactly right so somebody
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still wins anthony don't kid yourself there's the big players still win on that on that gamble on that bet
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so you know let's talk about gdp for a minute because i think that's that's something that we
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gotta we should talk about gdp i'm not saying we shouldn't but i think we should talk about gdp in
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another way and i think it i'm just the reason i brought it up and i want to talk to both of you
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because we look at our gdp and we say okay we're doing okay we're number nine so if you look at gdp just
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the number of trillions in u.s dollars canada is about 2.2 trillion dollars in gdp on an annual
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basis for 2024 the u.s is the monster in that equation with 29 trillion dollars u.s china second
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uh and i think we have if nick if you throw it up there india you know and it's funny because it you
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know when i look at this i always i'm amazed uh yeah there you go i'm always amazed at how it drops
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so fast so you know you go from you go from china at 18 trillion 18.7 trillion and then all of a sudden
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you have india at 4 trillion which i always think to myself isn't india a bigger country bigger on
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people but not particularly big in the gdp market it's big but you figure if it's 4 trillion and we're
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2.2 trillion and india has a billion people right it you know it may it shows you kind of what the
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country is but you know uh and then you have all the european countries and us right so part of the
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g7 equation that we always kind of uh hinge on when we talk about our country and anthony you know and
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we've talked about it we've talked it out in a previous process we always say we're this huge
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country we're a g7 country we're a major country you know we throw gdp up there that's a little bit
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of a disguise right that's kind of what it calls a shell game number wise so we say okay we 2.2 trillion
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dollars in gdp okay that's fine now let's uh power purchasing price adjusted right and let's see
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where we stand what does that mean power purchasing price so that's that's the one i talked about where
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you foreign exchange that's after the foreign exchange is adjusted you equalize your foreign
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exchange so basically if you looked at a basket of goods across every nation it would be the same
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currency right gotcha so this is the the great equalizer the equalizer okay so then when you look
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at the equalizer well lo and behold we fall from spot nine to spot 16 yeah so 1024 so if you look
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it makes sense though the way you describe it with india and so forth you're like how can a billion
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people even though the account's not rosy there and they're not all upper middle class like how can
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a billion people not be outpacing us when they put all their efforts together yeah oh exactly right
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and so they climb up the map you know they climb up and and quite frankly china moves ahead of the u.s
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because now what this indicator is talking to us about is our productivity which is where we need
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to be right we've we've been talking about this for a long time so paul how do we view ourselves as a g7
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country well we number 16 and frankly at the best of times number nine we negotiate ourself in right
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so we buy dinner we enter nato right we do all these things we were around for the ride like
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the vimy ridge passchendaele stuff participating in world war ii yeah just kind of always being
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around the way you let a family member yeah join in the opportunity even though even though they're
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basically sleeping on your couch because they can't afford to really be at the party well and i think
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like the vimy ridge stuff like we were very much a part of the game early on so there's a holdover
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from that and people aren't yet recognizing that we're no longer a big player like we were back in
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in the earlier part of the 20th century yeah exactly we don't want to realize that right we want to keep
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you know all our foreign trips our dinners our diplomats our you know flights our planes everything
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we are doing right now would go away if we said hey we're just not big enough to do that anymore right
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and and quite frankly when you look at the numbers now this it even gets better and you know if you
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break it down because now we look at our per capita right so then we start to say okay per capita and
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per capita has been interesting because our per capita spend productivity wise has gone down or
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stagnated in comparison to the u.s so even though the u.s and it's funny because now with tariffs
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happening the big debate you know senator ron johnson who you know i enjoy listening to he makes the
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debate that the tariffs won't work because americans will not be productive enough they don't have the
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skilled workers of the desire to go back into factories right which i quite frankly when the
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when the tariffs came i totally bought into that like that was my first argument i lived in the u.s
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quite frankly i i worked along in the construction business with many uh u.s construction firms right
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i wasn't working with many americans i'll be truthful with you when i hit a job site whether it be
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florida oklahoma illinois whatever it was me and a lot of new immigrants quite frankly some great
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mexican people that i was working with and and quite frankly no one there was was homegrown right so are
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you willing to show up for this dollar an hour as opposed to that dollar right yeah yeah they weren't
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right so and then also the unions are so powerful in the u.s that any sort of major manufacturing shift
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in-house would quickly be met with well we can't afford to do it here based on the hourly rates that
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the unions are demanding yeah those jobs were gone right those jobs were going to other countries and
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quite frankly anything building quite that was needed to be built wasn't being built at home or by
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people who came from home so so that's kind of where they were so the per capita right so we stagnate
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so think about that so that's an interesting scale the u that's an argument that's a valid argument in the
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u.s they grew on the gdp per capita side and we didn't yeah right we've stagnated we've almost stood
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still so and we've lost ground um to the point how is that sorry how is that possible if we're doing
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pretty much the same things that the u.s is doing that we're not in the same realm so we loaded in
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what we did is we loaded in uh we loaded in more people into the country right who are less productive
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with fewer projects right so the u.s you know good or bad they do build right so the one thing down
00:18:10.500
there they built a lot of projects they build them fast and they're very efficient in their building and
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they their mandate their their companies uh is very aggressive right that's that's a cultural thing
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ours isn't quite frankly so we're loading in unskilled workers who quite frankly weren't being as
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productive and we're being trained as fast or put in the social safety net in canada allowed them to
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sit without having to become productive right in america there's no social safety net so i go to
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america i land right and that's why quite frankly most of the people that were actually and we don't talk
00:18:44.500
about it very much most of the people who are being smuggled across the mexico u.s borders what were
00:18:50.580
they doing first they're they were heading up to quebec i was going to say were they're not coming
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to coming to coming to canada was their final destination i don't think i don't think i i worked
00:19:03.820
uh with the turkish trade that hadn't crossed through quebec for probably three years here
00:19:09.340
wow yeah and i'm not knocking them i love those guys but quite frankly the stories they all told they
00:19:15.920
crossed over the quebec border they came through mexico went up through the u.s they had no interest
00:19:20.960
in staying in the u.s there's no social safety net in the u.s they knew that they weren't going to stop
00:19:25.600
they you know we were under biden we were making you know oh look at that caravan crossing the u.s
00:19:32.740
border right yeah sure they're crossing the u.s border to get to the quebec border right that's what
00:19:37.920
they were doing so so quite frankly we our productivity as our population's growing is going
00:19:43.240
down so interesting part is now this is the part that you know as i'm going through on the weekends
00:19:48.700
blowing my head off i'm looking at the gdp per capita go to the next slide nick the gd and it's small
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i apologize but the gdp per capita um and basically ppp adjusted so that parity adjusted
00:20:05.000
we slipped to 30th in the world god right so we didn't just slip so on the gdp we adjusted it for
00:20:15.920
ppp we slipped to number 16 then when we actually do per capita we slip out to number 30 right so
00:20:25.000
think about some of the and you know i just wanted to kind of run through and this was blew my mind on
00:20:30.160
the weekend so right rod gdp is kind of the equivalent of ebit da from the investing world
00:20:36.500
in other words the most attractive number possible based on real stats the most attractive extrapolation
00:20:44.480
yeah so then so countries that are countries that are ahead of us which is i was shocked to hear
00:20:51.300
australia is ahead of us right australia has had a dreadful time coming out of covid i don't know
00:20:58.820
if you followed australia but australia the same issue as us housing immigration right but you know
00:21:05.740
and they were criticized heavily remember the government was just chastised right um and raked
00:21:10.940
over the coals and i think nick if you can go to the next slide on this one the but it really was
00:21:16.420
raked over the coals um finland korea germany guiana taiwan denmark netherlands like it's amazing
00:21:29.120
like the countries what's that norway norway norway norway now some of these countries you know
00:21:35.000
an economist will make the argument that some of these countries are their gdp is made off of uh tax
00:21:41.660
shelters right right i get that you know there's some of these i think i look at shows up that's
00:21:46.620
the first few yeah and macau in their situation but all the other ones above us are just very similar
00:21:51.760
european quasi-socialist states yeah like ireland always gets a bad rack because of its tax shelters
00:21:58.300
quite frankly that's what makes its gdp high right number four i think yeah so that that's why it gets
00:22:03.400
up there but quite frankly the rest of them you know you know if i look at there's not many on that list
00:22:09.500
that can actually be categorized that way most of them are just doing business like we are yeah so
00:22:16.020
it's you know i kind of and i'll fast forward a little and uh as i go through this but you know
00:22:22.820
it was interesting in two i don't know in 2022 when remember minister friedland members the finance
00:22:30.620
minister she you know she uh she tried to talk about this she brought it up she said listen
00:22:37.240
we have to increase our productivity and if we don't our children uh won't be as prosperous
00:22:46.440
and the canadian dream will die right so and the way we're going to do this is we're going to actually
00:22:53.100
try to set targets for gdp right and you know and i thought you know what not a big fan but you know
00:23:00.160
sensible smart a lot of professors you know we basically uh had uh a couple professors from the
00:23:08.720
university of calgary came out and they you know did a comparison of us gdp wise per capita versus the
00:23:15.960
u.s and said we are in danger so we did all that and and we saw the divide of about 20 000 between
00:23:22.480
gdp per capita so in the u.s if you um they kept growing and their gdp per capita equated to about a
00:23:32.860
22 000 per person divide between canada so we were at one point we were neck and neck right and then
00:23:40.400
they pulled away and grew it 22 000 more and that was because their productivity increased so much and
00:23:47.920
ours did so i get that but now going into this budget coming up and going into what we're about
00:23:55.780
to hit in session the key to me is now to set some parameters for gdp so rather than tell us we're
00:24:03.380
going into a recession tell us how we avoid a recession tell us what we need to do to create
00:24:09.840
programs that will be productive to avoid it so and this is where i think i wonder if that will be
00:24:17.460
part of the discussion uh coming back um with the legislature i wonder if we will hear that there
00:24:24.220
is a plan i mean our prime minister is a banker do you do you have faith that maybe this is something
00:24:30.220
that he's keeping an eye on that maybe we will uh see a strategy that builds itself around a more
00:24:37.440
robust gdp yeah he's got it so covered he doesn't need a budget you don't need to ask questions and just
00:24:43.040
you know right the way he's got it all covered don't worry folks yeah don't worry be happy
00:24:47.580
i think that's kind of the message that he sent right which is to print money right we talked about
00:24:52.960
earlier thanks that that song will not leave my head for the next two weeks anthony i appreciate
00:24:57.120
that bobby darren but it does tie you know he he knows and any economists will tell you and they do
00:25:03.640
know this quite frankly they need to print money i do at this point they have to print money because
00:25:10.420
quite frankly boring money will just increase the the debt interest ratio and that's not a good
00:25:16.160
thing for the country and the debt on the country so they have to print money they have to print money
00:25:21.000
to put them into productive programs to grow gdp so where he's got to kind of and and rather than
00:25:28.520
telling us we're going because when the messaging is and i don't i know i don't hopefully he's not
00:25:33.520
telling us but when the media tells us that we're going into a recession that's really saying i'm
00:25:39.280
going to give up that's kind of that moment that's that moment i'm in florida when i get that phone
00:25:45.200
call and say i'm giving up and i don't want to give up i want him to print money but i want him to
00:25:50.120
print money to put into productive programs and projects right that will grow the country and get
00:25:56.500
our gdp per capita going our gdp ppp and i want him to put the metrics in place the accountability to do
00:26:03.240
that so don't give us don't give us you know no we're going into we're going into also that talk
00:26:12.780
leads us there well i bet you're on to something you know that that's a good that's a good situation
00:26:18.760
to have everyone be fearing fearful selling and so forth that's good for the mna guys that's good
00:26:24.000
for the asset guys that's good for all everybody's friends anything if you want to go in that direction
00:26:28.360
you know there's like you push recession there's also good buying opportunities for certain circles
00:26:33.300
yeah recession listen who does recession benefit the rich right and even with cash yeah they keep
00:26:40.620
with cash so quite frankly creating a recession is good for a small group of society it's not good for
00:26:45.980
the low to middle scoop up their houses yeah it's not good and that's not where we want to go
00:26:50.420
fun yeah so let's not do it right you know what i mean because i uh you know and auntie and i have
00:26:56.520
told him this story a couple times so i'm probably boring him with it but you know that go back to
00:27:01.600
florida right so you know that call comes the bankers i'm driving to work so i came back to
00:27:07.660
canada and i'm i'm i liquidated i levered i went through it all i fly back to florida and i'm driving
00:27:14.860
to work in the morning so i my from my rental place i'm driving to work and i'm driving through all
00:27:20.680
the neighborhoods and the doors are flapping open the pools the people are in pulling the
00:27:26.440
copper wire they're they're pillaging the homes there's neighborhood after neighborhood the
00:27:32.380
security gates are all left open for the the security uh neighborhoods secure neighborhoods
00:27:38.300
um it's like a ghost town you know u-hauls moving down the highway and that's what happens right it's
00:27:45.520
it decimates areas right when people start handing in their keys
00:27:49.340
yeah they threw their they throw their keys on the kitchen table and they walked out and that's
00:27:55.220
that's a restart of life for those people by the way you know this we look at the economy but you
00:27:59.620
think about the process of going uh getting to the point with your with your spouse and your family or
00:28:05.400
whatever the case is and you have to sit down and say guys i'm sorry we have to give our house back to
00:28:10.640
the bank right but we don't need to do that right we what we need to do is set the metrics and the
00:28:15.960
accountability to move forward to create projects right listen we've seen it in the past china did
00:28:21.740
it you know and i know people saw china a communist country right no they were in a really bad economic
00:28:28.220
situation decades ago decentralized they decentralized they made loans to small businesses they increased
00:28:35.680
productivity they moved money into the economy small banks growing bigger businesses yeah yeah with
00:28:41.660
less resource base than we have see that's the crazy that that's when i when i see this gdp thing
00:28:47.260
go across the screen i think my goodness we're resource rich right we have skilled trades we've brought
00:28:53.660
all these people into the country now so we have we have people right we need to train and deploy them
00:28:59.620
into projects that will grow the gdp of the country and you know that's i appreciate you guys sitting
00:29:06.080
down with me today but that's that's really the message i wanted to leave and if if anything going
00:29:11.280
into the session coming up we can kind of get out there is let's quickly get the projects going because
00:29:17.920
so far we haven't right we've kind of come out we've talked about a bunch of stuff there's been a lot of
00:29:25.360
meetings i don't know if you guys notice there's there's like there's a cabinet meeting there's a
00:29:30.740
minister's meeting there's a premier's meeting there's a lot of meetings right let's stop the
00:29:36.060
meetings let's get some projects going and let's get some plans and strategies into place and let's
00:29:41.060
start growing because that's what's going to move the country forward and increase the productivity
00:29:45.840
thanks paul i i'm glad to you know what to be honest with you and and anthony maybe you're you're
00:29:51.960
the guy who understands all of this no i sit with paul i sit with paul and i realize afterward oh i
00:29:57.940
i really did trust the gdp was the marker but i didn't he trusted the government you know every
00:30:04.360
day it's not my it's not in my nature i don't know how that happened thank you yeah and you know what
00:30:10.320
for those of you out there and i i really appreciate uh you listening in please subscribe and i also would
00:30:16.780
like you to comment because the more you know i want to get people active in this discussion because
00:30:22.640
i think the more we talk about this we change uh the tone the temperament and the agenda which for
00:30:30.060
the better of the country and i think that's what we need to be doing right now so please you know let
00:30:34.540
us know your comments i'd like to hear them and uh for those of you who any experts come on the show
00:30:40.360
i'd love to have this discussion with you for sure if you have another way of looking at it i want to do
00:30:45.120
a show on interest rates because i think that's a really interesting show to have which is another
00:30:49.980
indicator that you know all of a sudden we're talking about you know our savior is lowering
00:30:54.620
interest rates another show but it isn't so let's look forward to having that discussion i thought
00:31:00.380
that was our savior too all right i better show up for that lesson too all right thanks guys
00:31:05.540
you
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