True Patriot Love - July 10, 2026


Canada's Government Bonds: Investment or Hidden Risk?


Episode Stats


Length

9 minutes

Words per minute

170.41

Word count

1,703

Sentence count

15


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
00:00:00.000 are there benefits sure you know and they state them their manufacturing or steel demand and
00:00:06.160 engineering contracts refinery activity uh long-term pipeline operations who owns it
00:00:18.480 so mike i'm having my coffee the other day yeah and i'm reading this article it's about foreign
00:00:25.040 investors who have bought canadian government debt at a record pace in april so you know there's a
00:00:32.480 lag between reporting on all this stuff so purchasing 46.9 foreign uh billion in canadian
00:00:39.920 securities overall which kind of caught my eye and i thought what was that number again well this is
00:00:46.320 this is total security so this is everything right but these are foreign investors coming in
00:00:51.280 but the thing that really caught my eye was that the government of canada bonds
00:00:58.000 now have an ownership stake of 43 by non-resident canadiens that's a really really high number
00:01:06.640 right so you know and and welcome to the show i didn't i just jumped in but you know and and
00:01:11.760 everyone welcome to the show true patriot loves uh very happy to have everyone watching today
00:01:17.120 but this one's a really interesting one because right away when i see something like 43 of bonds
00:01:24.000 are owned by non-residents my mind asks and this is my accounting brain it says
00:01:28.960 what are the total amount of government of canada bonds what do we have out there so we now have 1.48
00:01:36.160 trillion dollars now this this is needs to be updated but that was the 1.5 trillion dollars
00:01:42.560 in coming into 26 we had 1.48 trillion dollars of government bonds so you know those uh
00:01:50.480 government of canada bonds we used to buy remember when we were kids oh yeah yeah we all had bonds
00:01:54.960 you know our parents you know learn the bond market would buy a bond it seemed to be like a
00:01:59.920 if you the bond market was primarily owned by canadians right well we did right we all bought
00:02:05.520 and for some reason i don't know why that went away yeah it did so you know you don't say to
00:02:10.320 your kids anymore get a government bond but you know there were canadian savings bonds we all
00:02:14.800 used to buy them they had a low interest rate but it's kind of how you uh entered the investment
00:02:20.480 world to learn a little about the market right so time went on these started to get bought up
00:02:26.720 by foreign investors so if you have what we have let's say 1.5 billion now it's a little over 1.5
00:02:34.000 sorry trillion trillion yeah right 43 of that
00:02:39.840 is now in the hands of foreign investors so roughly 600 billion dollars is held by
00:02:46.320 foreign investors in canada yes almost half of the the uh bond investment is held by foreign entities
00:02:56.240 right so governments go out when they need money they go out and borrow money in the marketplace
00:03:01.520 so half of it over 43 percent of it is now uh owned by us asian german other other countries
00:03:11.680 and also uh other investment arms in other countries how do we work these bonds like
00:03:17.280 do we have to say okay here is a national project specifically no no no we just we go get a bond
00:03:24.160 rating for the cut so we basically say canada has a bond rating of like triple a therefore you know
00:03:29.920 this is a good bond it's a safe place to do business which i find very interesting given
00:03:34.800 the fact that our debt in the country is about 1.27 trillion dollars so we're already underwater
00:03:42.480 with what we have out there in bonds right well and and we're the third i took a look so then my
00:03:48.320 mind goes and says okay are there any other countries that have foreign ownership higher
00:03:55.040 than us and there's only two others which not a good example is france and germany so we're the
00:04:00.960 third so our 43 is like the third highest saturation or content of foreign ownership
00:04:08.880 of government bonds so that's okay how do i feel about that so i started looking into it
00:04:15.120 it feels like we've lost a huge chunk of our financial sovereignty to ownership in other
00:04:22.400 countries i mean probably probably primarily the u.s yeah a lot of it a lot of it is as you know
00:04:30.080 they they seem to be the april so uh in april uh government of canada bonds out of the total
00:04:37.520 investment in securities accounted for uh 27.7 billion so they bought a lot of bonds so someone
00:04:45.200 or some people they don't say specifically who um they they tell you the countries that buy them or
00:04:51.360 the places of the companies that buy them where they're from but roughly it was a record uh
00:04:59.360 coming in and most of them are from the us and asia so is there a limit that we will allow is
00:05:08.080 there i mean at 50 foreign investment we stop it is there any place or any indication that we would
00:05:15.040 do that no no we don't seem to have a you know no one's there's not a law or a guardrail yeah
00:05:22.800 there's no mechanism to no no no we do say this is the interesting part and i've always i've always
00:05:29.520 heard this but i've never tested the theory on it they say well canada the foreign countries
00:05:36.400 and companies from foreign countries like the bonds because it we have a high uh bond rating
00:05:42.000 okay a triple a bond rating we're a safe place to do business we have stability even though we have
00:05:48.080 1.3 trillion in debt and 1.5 trillion in bonds out there we seem like a good bet huh
00:05:54.800 we yeah i'm with you we always make the case that we have a low debt ratio um but you know we don't
00:06:02.080 talk about how our productivity levels are low you know we don't talk about our gdp per capita we
00:06:08.480 don't talk about quite frankly that we have which i find interesting we are going on what we're
00:06:13.920 talking about a technical recession but yet at the same time our bonds are attractive that that's
00:06:21.600 i don't understand how that how that aligns that's that's kind of where i was going with this now
00:06:27.760 here's my other question yeah if we aren't on a growth pattern and the u.s is exceeding if their
00:06:35.280 bond yield is exceeding ours do we not then have to go to the marketplace with a better value
00:06:40.800 with more interest uh for investors do we do we not then have to enter with a more attractive
00:06:48.960 product to the market and if so how can we afford to do that because doesn't that then
00:06:55.440 lean on all the all the projects that we're going to use the money for yeah exactly well it's
00:07:01.280 interesting because you know uh you know our defense projects so we've got some big projects
00:07:07.120 coming up so infrastructure defense housing uh productivity initiatives that we put in our budget
00:07:13.520 so what we're going to the market we're saying please come in and finance these essentially
00:07:19.440 that's exactly what it feels like the timing on it is exact yeah yeah yeah and that's what we're
00:07:24.800 doing so we're we're basically going to market we're bringing in for now the issue becomes
00:07:30.880 what happens if no one talks about it what happens if there's a downturn in market
00:07:36.960 so you can't you can't take care of these bonds right so you have to renegotiate the bonds you
00:07:43.280 have to come up with other i suppose that could happen it is a financial arrangement
00:07:48.080 and you've got these investors there if the bonds start to fail the security is the government right
00:07:53.040 and the people so we elect the government the government goes out and creates the policies
00:07:57.360 they've told us in a budget they want to do infrastructure defense and housing now they've
00:08:02.080 gone to market and now all these firms no this is interesting because we just did a show on kuzma
00:08:08.480 mike so we're we're actually going to have a negotiation with a country that is now buying up
00:08:16.000 a substantial amount of our bonds on the market to get into those sectors it seems odd doesn't
00:08:22.960 Yeah, that we're negotiating on one page on one day and over here selling investment in these very same things that we're, well, it's interesting that you say that because one of the things that crossed my mind just now was, okay, so now we've got this much in bonds out there at 1.5 trillion.
00:08:41.600 does the arrangement now change with in the face of tariffs that we saw this morning you know
00:08:48.340 Trump jetting right over Kuzma and adding Trump's tax or the tariff of 25 percent in a lot of cases
00:08:56.480 an additional 10 percent how does that affect our bond rating and how does that affect our ability
00:09:01.380 to service the bonds yeah it's got to have an impact so you should in other words of course
00:09:08.600 it does right so if you can't reach an agreement the market goes soft you have to you can almost
00:09:14.020 create your own outcome because you have now the other thing that he gets to write his own script
00:09:18.700 on that one because we need bailed out essentially the other one we talked about you know which is
00:09:24.040 the vulnerability say the ai bubble bust and he's got to actually pull his money back yeah because
00:09:28.920 he's loaning the money right he's actually giving the money buying the bonds he's got to say okay
00:09:32.760 i'm now going to either pay the penalty or the bonds come due i'm going to take them out i'm
00:09:36.740 and take them back because they need the money back at home we're vulnerable to that because we
00:09:41.460 take in the foreign investment whatever's happening in their world now impacts our world
00:09:46.260 and as they have we get dragged along and as they exit this bond even though they're paying a penalty
00:09:52.020 we're going to be i'm just guessing and please tell me if i'm wrong we're going to be borrowing
00:09:56.980 from Paul to pay Peter.