True Patriot Love - January 09, 2026


Canada’s GDP Drop Signals Trouble


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35 minutes

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6,318

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511

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, I'm joined by Mike Wixson to discuss the devastating 0.3% decline in GDP in October, which is the worst monthly decline since 2011. We talk about what happened, why it happened, and what we can do about it.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Today on True Patriot Love, Under the Pillar Economy, I'm joined by Mike Wixson to go over
00:00:09.940 what happened in October. We saw a 0.3% decrease in our GDP, which is probably one of the biggest
00:00:17.340 GDP decreases we've seen since 2022. Hi, Mike. How's it going? Good, good. I appreciate you
00:00:24.260 you know what? I like being the guy in this seat because you make clarity of what tends to come
00:00:30.360 out in charts I don't understand out there often. So I appreciate this. Yeah, no, thanks for joining
00:00:35.480 me. You know what? It was a funny month because we remember back to October, things slowed down a
00:00:43.400 little. We were kind of at the point where we had seen the bubble from tariffs. People had gone and
00:00:50.440 stockpiled all their goods and then all of a sudden the economy started to slow. So we
00:00:56.620 particularly saw a manufacturing dip. We saw the the wood industry go. You know, we heard a lot about
00:01:02.380 remember we heard a lot about subsidizing the wood industry. That's right. Yeah. Yeah. Soft lumber,
00:01:06.800 lumber, all that stuff. So we saw that manufacturing. We talked a lot about auto product manufacturing,
00:01:13.620 how all that had started to slow down. So we saw the decline in that. And you know what? We saw the
00:01:20.240 construction industry just disappear in October. You know, we started to hear about condos, the
00:01:29.000 unwinding of the condo industry, and then boom, right? The overall drop we understood to be 0.3%.
00:01:37.740 That's an enormous drop across all these categories. For a monthly change. Yes, it is. And again,
00:01:44.640 we hadn't seen anything like that since the early, you know, 2020s. And, you know, that kind of alarmed
00:01:51.700 everyone. Now, this hasn't been something that we haven't been tracking. We haven't been talking
00:01:56.180 about because Deloitte, for example, I get a circular from them every month. They're predicting,
00:02:00.920 you know, a mild recession. I don't know. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I don't know how you classify a mild
00:02:07.960 recession. But they've been saying for a while. We're mildly pregnant. Yeah, we're mildly pregnant.
00:02:13.100 But they are saying, you know, they're expecting the bubble to burst and to get a few back-to-back
00:02:19.380 recession defined as several months of back-to-back decline in GDP. Over half the sectors that were,
00:02:26.840 I guess, polled or researched on this reported decline. 11 out of 20. Wow. So, and that's
00:02:35.680 interesting because if you look back since last October, so if you look back a year 2024, October,
00:02:42.860 and you go forward, out of those 12 months, six of those 12 months were a significant decline in GDP.
00:02:51.600 So, it's not something we hadn't seen coming. And people, again, you know, we're here, we talk so
00:02:56.680 much about the tariff impacts and what's happening with the tariffs. We've been in this malaise for a
00:03:02.220 while, right? This isn't something new that was Donald Trump related. This is something that our
00:03:06.640 economy was starting to see some bumps. So, when we got to the fall of 2024, I knew it. I started to
00:03:14.600 see it. And, you know, we were talking about it. So, it's not something that wasn't an indicator.
00:03:21.700 It's funny that it's such a slow grind, Paul.
00:03:24.240 Yeah.
00:03:24.460 Like, if in 2024, you were starting to see pretty serious indicators of this happening
00:03:29.200 month over month, and you can start to see this on the horizon, this is a couple of years
00:03:34.040 of getting to that point. It feels like maybe we've made some bad choices between here and
00:03:38.800 there, to be honest with you.
00:03:40.160 Oh, yeah.
00:03:40.500 We could have staved this off in many ways.
00:03:42.400 Well, and we did some things to actually kind of mask it. So, if you look at, there were
00:03:46.760 some months where we'd increase military spending, which would just get us back positive by like
00:03:52.260 a tiny bit. We'd increase, you know, housing subsidies, which would just get us back. So,
00:03:58.300 we'd have one really negative month, and then all of a sudden, you know, there'd be government
00:04:02.500 spending, or there'd be some program that would kick in. So, we saw a year of kind of up and down
00:04:08.740 based on the way we were managing GDP.
00:04:11.520 Well, this chart that you point out to me just a little bit earlier, and we'll put it up right
00:04:16.100 now for you to have a look at, this is an interesting one because it shows so many months that we've
00:04:21.160 dipped below the line in the last year.
00:04:23.780 Yes.
00:04:24.040 Talk to me about that.
00:04:25.180 Yeah. So, those are the six, you know, six out of 12 months that we did go below the line
00:04:29.860 that we were trying to manage through. Now, GDP. So, let's make sure, because a lot of people out
00:04:35.100 there always ask me the question, you know, what's the difference between real and nominal GDP?
00:04:38.940 So, we're talking real GDP. So, which has been inflation adjusted. So, inflation isn't impacting
00:04:45.760 the numbers. So, you know, so we're not seeing months where we have more inflation and less
00:04:51.260 inflation. That's nominal GDP where inflation's already in that. It's not adjusted out. And,
00:04:57.500 you know, GDP, for those of you kind of new to the term or, you know, just remembering it again.
00:05:03.000 Well, we hear it a lot.
00:05:04.280 We hear it a lot, but GDP is a number of sectors, right? So, whether it's services, manufacturing,
00:05:10.720 natural resources, construction. So, what they do is they basically, it's like a surveying.
00:05:18.320 They go through the key industries. They take the economic volume. So, the revenues, they compile
00:05:27.400 them. StatsCan does a really good job of doing this. They do it on a monthly basis and they basically
00:05:32.700 say, okay, I'm going to take the top 90% of an industry. So, let's take agriculture. And they
00:05:39.100 take 90% of the agricultural companies, they record their revenue for the month, and then they're able
00:05:45.560 to determine whether the industry is going up or down. Right. So, they do know a dollar value on GDP,
00:05:53.920 which is great. And they can then go from month to month and they can compare the two.
00:05:58.660 And so, it's a- When you remove the inflation from that overall number though, what does that leave
00:06:06.060 us with? It leaves us with a baseline GDP. So, basically, it leaves us with the GDPs that's
00:06:12.920 adjusted out for inflation. So, for example, say if in the agricultural industry, inflation hits
00:06:19.020 harder than in the construction industry. Okay.
00:06:21.200 Or otherwise, it takes that number out. So, it's kind of apples to apples versus apples to inflated
00:06:27.100 apples. Gotcha. Okay.
00:06:28.340 So, it takes it out. So, and that's why I like the real GDP. Now, you know, as you go through,
00:06:34.680 and I think they've talked about quite a bit over the years, our GDP continues per capita to slip
00:06:41.020 significantly. Explain that to me.
00:06:43.740 Well, so, we are kind of a group. We're part of a group. It's called the Organization of Economic
00:06:50.420 and Cooperation and Development. So, you know, the acronym is OECD. So, to make it easy,
00:06:58.440 it's developed countries. So, you know, we talk about non-developed countries and third world
00:07:02.940 countries and developed countries.
00:07:04.880 How many people are- How many countries are in this?
00:07:07.100 38.
00:07:07.860 38 countries.
00:07:08.460 Right. So, 38 countries in this. And we are, unfortunately, slipped to last.
00:07:16.260 Of 38 countries.
00:07:17.940 In the forecasted. So, the OECD is predicted between 20 and 30 will be in last place among
00:07:25.480 the developed countries for GDP growth.
00:07:29.160 Wow.
00:07:29.920 Right? So, it's a scary figure. You know, it's been something-
00:07:32.660 It's almost like we're not on that list almost.
00:07:34.900 Well, you know, and I bring it up in previous shows, and I think through what they call the
00:07:40.840 lost decade, even the finance minister, you know, Chrystia Friedland, who's now, you know,
00:07:49.240 working for the Ukrainians.
00:07:50.640 Yeah, that's right. She's a special envoy to Ukraine.
00:07:54.000 No, no, she left that job.
00:07:55.200 Oh, sorry. Oh, my apologies.
00:07:56.920 That was yesterday.
00:07:57.520 She's now actually employed by the people she gave the money to.
00:08:00.160 Yeah. So, well, that's another show.
00:08:03.040 Okay. All right.
00:08:03.780 But, so, you know, the interesting part is that the growth, our growth in GDP has slipped
00:08:10.320 to last place in the developed countries. And the real interesting part of that is that
00:08:15.620 we've not really been worried about it, which is, to me, and I've said on numerous shows,
00:08:22.260 the lost decade, even the liberal government, you know, she is the finance minister was saying,
00:08:30.140 hey, you know, time out. We got to, we got to turn, you know, we got to turn.
00:08:34.560 And they were trying to figure it out, but they weren't getting any programs in place to get it
00:08:39.440 figured out. So now we've slipped to that bottom, bottom tier. So.
00:08:44.200 Compare us to the U.S. for a minute.
00:08:45.760 Well, so, okay. So the U.S., that's interesting. Per capita. So what they do is they take GDP per
00:08:50.680 capita and they compare us to the U.S. And the U.S. has been on this sharp increase and we've
00:08:57.120 flattened off and went down. So we've, you know, we went the opposite direction. So GDP per capita,
00:09:03.680 you know, is wide. And I've talked about on other shows, almost to the point where it's,
00:09:10.180 I think, $8,000 per person per capita difference difference between the two countries. So if you
00:09:16.900 look at it in 1970, we started off on the same plane. So we were in the same position. And then
00:09:23.100 over, you know, decades, we've just constantly, we've divided, divided, divided the U.S. climbing,
00:09:29.600 we sort of stabilizing or, you know, leveling and then going down, unfortunately. So not a good
00:09:36.440 predictor. And quite frankly, it doesn't help us going into this economic climate, which, you know,
00:09:42.180 is a, as Deloitte says, will be some type of recession. Not only that, but it does seem to
00:09:46.820 add a little bit of fuel to the flames for Trump in any sort of negotiation he does. I mean, I can
00:09:52.540 almost hear him saying, your GDP is dead. You've got no GDP. Well, yeah, that's the, that's the
00:09:58.600 whole bargaining chip. Well, that's interesting because, you know, there's a couple, a couple
00:10:03.540 indicators of the cause GDP decline. So there's a number of indicators that cause GDP decline. But
00:10:10.660 one of the key ones is capital investment in your own country. And we've unfortunately managed to go
00:10:18.500 the opposite direction. So we spend more money investing in other countries than we do in our
00:10:26.240 own country. And that's, that's very bizarre. So even our CPP, which we've talked about on other
00:10:32.580 shows, 50% of that is invested in the U S and not Canada. So I looked into that. There's not
00:10:38.220 another country on earth that would invest more outside of their own country than they do. And
00:10:43.680 yeah, which is bizarre. So, so that's been kind of the challenge. Our, our, our basic, our capital
00:10:49.780 investment. So our capital investment into the country has managed to go down. So as your product
00:10:55.620 productivity decreases and your productivity is a function of labor and resources. So, and technology,
00:11:03.080 of course, in the innovative technology. So those are the kind of the three components that make up
00:11:07.900 your productivity in your country. Um, our labor, you know, our labor, uh, productivity has gotten
00:11:13.760 scarily low. We don't do any manufacturing. We don't do many manufacturing. So the level of
00:11:19.080 manufacturing do is sunk, uh, sorry to manufacturers in this nation, but you're among a really rare
00:11:24.400 group. You're in rare air if that's what you do. But if you're not, you're not manu, if you're not
00:11:28.980 manufacturing anything, you're not spending capital. So they kind of go hand in hand, right? So now I'm
00:11:34.820 not building anything or I'm not manufacturing anything. Am I going to buy machines, buy equipment?
00:11:40.360 Am I going to worry about innovation? Am I going to try to make that widget better?
00:11:44.320 Do I need to construct a new building? Do I need more warehouse space? Do I need more drivers?
00:11:49.080 Like, yeah, all of that is impacted. Well, we have done, which is interesting. So that's an
00:11:53.460 interesting one on the real estate side. We do do a lot of storage. And, uh, so we do build a lot
00:12:01.340 of things to store things. We don't build a lot of places to manufacture things. So our, our, you know,
00:12:08.260 we've seen over the years, it's come to an end, but our residential construction was a booming industry.
00:12:13.100 Oh yeah. Our commercial was a booming industry only from a perspective of storage, not a perspective of
00:12:20.480 manufacturing. So that, that was interesting. You say that in many parts of this country,
00:12:24.300 as you leave the outskirts of the core of the city and you get to the main, uh, transport areas,
00:12:30.480 we have huge warehouses. Yeah. Uh, a lot of the Amazon warehouses, there's warehouses in this country
00:12:37.240 that cover, cover square kilometers. Yes. It's remarkable. Yeah. Yeah. Well, you know,
00:12:42.980 even, uh, Mississauga by me, uh, it's amazing even over the last few years coming out of COVID,
00:12:48.740 the amount of storage that we've, we've built and you see them, I, you know, you wonder who
00:12:54.420 speculate that with me. What's in them? Why are we doing that? Are we a hub for the world for
00:13:00.020 distribution? I don't think so. Are we storing product that we're going to buy in the future?
00:13:04.520 I think we thought, well, coming out of COVID, I think we thought we had supply management
00:13:08.820 challenges. So, so I think a lot of that was just, you know, did, uh, that was the perception.
00:13:14.420 I think we built to meet a demand, uh, or a supply issue that probably wasn't there in the end.
00:13:20.940 So now I think a lot of those are sitting empty. You don't see many people around those
00:13:25.160 buildings anymore. You see them kind of vacant with 10 cars at most.
00:13:29.380 Yeah. It seems like they're just a storage space, um, on occasion.
00:13:33.840 Yeah. That's, and there's so much of it anyway. It's interesting. And I think we should take a
00:13:38.380 look at back down the road. What's, what are we warehousing in Canada that we have so much space?
00:13:43.100 Exactly. The other one, um, I wanted to bring up, and this is on the GDP front per capita,
00:13:47.780 is that when you look across the country, you know, you, we seem to think for years, we had Ontario,
00:13:54.520 uh, was a boom for manufacturing, uh, Alberta for oil and gas. So since 2019, we basically, um,
00:14:05.960 have not had a, uh, province grow above the 2% mark. So all 10 provinces, right. That we have,
00:14:17.440 have not exceeded that. There's no superstar. There's no superstar. In fact, Alberta, uh,
00:14:27.140 since 2019 has been in a negative growth. Our oil and gas business has just not been happening.
00:14:35.060 And that was, that was maybe the star actually. It was, and Ontario is slightly down. It's like
00:14:41.200 0.1% down, but it's negative. So, and you know, the East coast, except for New Brunswick,
00:14:47.440 you know, PEI is slightly up, but you know, that's not been positive either. So,
00:14:53.260 so basically across the nation, even on a localized basis, there's no real relief at any one place in
00:15:01.340 this country. No. Well, you know, that's a little frightening. It is frightening, but you know,
00:15:07.720 we've tried to do a few things. We've tried to lower interest rates. We've, you know, given credits for,
00:15:13.340 uh, manufacturing, you know, right now we're, as we talked about before the show, when we did the
00:15:18.840 budget show, we gave a lot of tax breaks. So we came out for, you know, buy equipment, invest,
00:15:25.440 innovation. Uh, we, we are trying to do things. The challenge right now is how fast will those kick in
00:15:31.080 and then where are we going to end up the next few months as we go through into the winter
00:15:36.200 when we do hit this recession in 2026, when technically we are in it. And then how deep do
00:15:43.180 we go? So that becomes the question now, is it a mild recession? It is a deep recession.
00:15:48.760 And then what does the government do? And, and if these programs, the tax credits and all these
00:15:55.860 things that we put in the budget, don't kick in and don't kick in fast enough, which I think that was
00:16:00.300 the, that was the budget sort of complaint from everyone is that it was two mile, not hard hitting
00:16:06.080 enough and we were going to hit it. And it was lengthy in delivering. Exactly. Like it was long
00:16:12.200 in the tooth by the time that they get there from the original concept. And frankly, it's an election
00:16:17.400 period. Right. But we're into it now. So we're, we're basically into it. And how do you get
00:16:22.700 productivity up? Because without people investing in machinery, innovation, we have an aging population
00:16:29.140 growth. We have a high immigration, that's not product, hasn't been productive, quite frankly, 1.00
00:16:34.660 to the country. So that's been a challenge. We haven't had a huge productivity from our immigration 1.00
00:16:39.380 groups. Um, how do you get that stimulated again? And what programs do you follow? So we started
00:16:46.320 looking into it and we said, okay, what happens? So this is an interesting thing. What do countries
00:16:51.300 do, right? When they hit, uh, our circumstance? Yeah. You can, that's, that's my next question
00:16:58.660 is like, okay, so we're here. Yeah. Can we get out of this? Is there, are there, is there a model
00:17:03.420 out there? Sure. We've, you know, five, six, five that I can count, uh, since 1961, you know,
00:17:09.660 recession, we've been in recessions before. This is a recession. That's a little different
00:17:13.340 because we're, we're kind of missing a large portion of the baby boomers. Yeah. So this is,
00:17:18.340 this is a little different. So, you know, I think we're underestimating my, my opinion.
00:17:23.760 So Paul's opinion on this is we're underestimating how deep we're going to go on this. I think this
00:17:28.180 is going to go deeper than what we thought. Since the last recession, correct me if I'm wrong on any
00:17:31.920 of this, because I'm just a, an average Canadian guy looking at the numbers. But since the last
00:17:37.280 recession, there's policies that make it different, difficult to mine. There's policies that are put in
00:17:43.240 place to make it difficult to manufacture because you could be creating pollution of some sort.
00:17:47.780 And all of this is necessary to have a protected world. And I understand, but a lot of industry
00:17:53.680 restriction has come into place in almost every sector that does manufacturing, that does resource
00:17:59.700 mining, uh, or, you know, pulls anything out of the ground. Do you think changing some of that
00:18:06.680 and our policy in this country, just with the existing industries we have could be a tipping
00:18:13.720 point for this?
00:18:14.620 Oh, a hundred percent, a hundred percent. Here's the challenge we're going to hit. So
00:18:19.300 we're going to dip. Leaders are going to have to make decisions. So whether it's cutting red tape,
00:18:25.840 whether it's, uh, internal trade barriers, we've gone too slow. So we didn't hit it. We missed it. So,
00:18:31.840 you know, we're in October, we've seen the dip. We, if we hit November, December, where the results
00:18:36.360 are going to come out shortly, we'll know. So then they'll put, you know, they'll announce it. It'll
00:18:41.220 be the, you know, the big news story of the day, which is imminent. Yeah. It'll come out and we'll
00:18:46.380 be, and a lot of people will be like, wow, you know, why are we in a recession? Well, we just kind
00:18:51.420 of explained why, here's how you got here. You know, you might want to share this with your friends
00:18:55.320 when they say, I don't know how we got here. Here's here. Well, I've got something. So now you
00:18:59.680 mentioned, uh, we've seen some examples and how they got out of there. Share some of those with me,
00:19:04.180 if you don't mind. Sure. Well, you know, some hope, some hope. Well, you know, I don't know if
00:19:08.480 it's hope, but it's, it's changing your economy. So a lot of times what, what countries do when they
00:19:13.120 hit, uh, bad recessions is number one, they have to renegotiate their loans and debt and everything
00:19:19.240 else. So like, uh, you know, I was looking just for some examples before the show and, you know,
00:19:24.320 one popped, which I had forgotten about was in the 1997 Asian financial crisis when, uh, South Korea,
00:19:31.340 uh, uh, took a bunch of loans from the IMF and they were defaulting on them. So they actually
00:19:36.940 went to their citizens and requested that people donate gold. So gold, jewelry, gold.
00:19:43.520 Wow. So, you know, everyone has to pony up. The citizens all ponied up actual gold.
00:19:48.940 They pointed up valued, sold it, and they actually raised $2 billion to stay afloat. Um, which was,
00:19:55.460 you know, that was a wake up call for a nation, like a huge wake up call for the nation to say,
00:20:01.140 you know, yeah, we're really in trouble. Like this isn't funny. So they had to get together and
00:20:06.700 they had to redevise, uh, business sectors. So one of the business sectors, which everyone will
00:20:11.380 know is Korean cars. They've done really well. So they came out of no place with that. This must 1.00
00:20:16.520 have been where, but you know, here's the nice part about what they did or the good part about what
00:20:20.660 they did. Number one, they, they started building their own cars. Number two, they took the time to
00:20:25.760 actually make sure the technology in those cars, the innovation, all the things that increased their
00:20:30.580 productivity went into those cars. And from there, they created a nation that became more productive.
00:20:36.260 So that was kind of the, that spurred them on to actually be more diligent and create an industry
00:20:42.180 that then brought them through the recession. They created formulas for creating great product.
00:20:47.500 Yeah. That they can put into other places. Yep. Yeah.
00:20:50.660 So, and then the banks know how to lend against that formula. Exactly. Investors can have reliance
00:20:56.260 on that. Yeah. The, the, the building process becomes formula. The employment process becomes
00:21:02.140 formula. A reset like that is pretty good. Okay. Guys, give me your gold. Well, and well,
00:21:07.200 here's the other thing. It, it actually is stimulated. The government stimulates it. And then the
00:21:11.860 private, private enterprise takes it and runs with it. So that's the nice part of that because
00:21:17.200 we're going to talk about this in a minute. A lot of countries don't do that. And that's
00:21:20.640 also a challenge. Um, Iceland. So 2000 to 2000, I don't remember 2008 was terrible. The
00:21:26.820 meltdown across the world, subprime mortgages, all that crazy stuff. But, uh, Iceland actually
00:21:33.300 let their financial institutions collapse, their banks collapse. So they let them fail. They basically,
00:21:39.580 uh, uh, uh, restarted, they hit the restart button. Right. And they devalued their currency and they
00:21:49.020 devalued their currency to make themselves more attractive as a trading partner. I don't know if
00:21:53.780 you remember, you know, remember the spa days in Iceland. Oh yeah. You could, I was going to say
00:21:57.660 they really, they took advantage of this in so many ways because tourism opened up, airlines opened up.
00:22:03.660 Yeah. They built a new airport, uh, international, uh, runway so that people could, it became a tourist
00:22:09.420 attraction around the world. Yeah. 200 bucks. You were in Iceland, you know, you $80 a night,
00:22:14.140 you, you know, one of the most incredible scenery, uh, locations on earth. Great coal plunges. Yeah.
00:22:20.260 Yeah. So Iceland really took advantage of it. So, you know, that's one way Australia. So let's talk
00:22:26.300 with that. So then when Australia, this was in the 2022 Australia probably did it a different way,
00:22:32.060 which didn't end up for them, did not going well at all. So they just gave cash subsidies.
00:22:38.700 So one of the things, one of the main things they did is they gave everyone 900 bucks.
00:22:43.500 And I think we learned from Justin Trudeau that quite frankly, giving cash to citizens as a pure
00:22:49.900 stimulus never works, right? It doesn't cause it's probably the goofiest idea I've ever heard in my life.
00:22:56.220 Okay. We've taken your money. Yes. At a high rate that you don't want to pay in the first place in
00:23:01.980 taxes. Uh, don't worry. We're going to give some back. What can't you work this out better than that?
00:23:07.580 Yeah. Well, and, and they took the interesting thing is the other, uh, flip side of that is they
00:23:12.780 took significant loans from China and then they actually paid them off with resources or they're
00:23:18.140 still paying them off with resources. So they kind of, uh, took their resource, the country's resources,
00:23:24.300 which were vast Australia. Yeah. And sold them basically to the Chinese in return for the loans 0.91
00:23:31.020 to bail them out of the meltdown. So they used their resources to save the nation?
00:23:41.260 Anybody? Anybody? Well, it is an interesting approach. I don't know, you know, and this is
00:23:46.620 interesting because, you know, that was in a climate where we were totally different and there were,
00:23:50.780 there was no anxiety about Western hemisphere protection, you know, and if this was happening
00:23:56.620 at another time, that would be something I'd throw on the table right away. But right now, um,
00:24:01.740 you know, on the show a few, uh, a month ago, we actually went through the national defense paper
00:24:08.140 of the United States. Um, they want nothing to do. They went to, they were basically saying they
00:24:13.900 won't allow that now. Yeah. So they won't allow, uh, an economic bailout of a country, uh, in the
00:24:20.060 Western hemisphere. Yeah. So they're time out. We're not doing that anymore. You, you will, 0.96
00:24:26.700 in that paper that they published, uh, basically you will buy your goods and resources from the United
00:24:31.980 States. You will take loans from the United States. You will partner with the United States.
00:24:35.500 That's the way they see the world. It's very interesting because Australia seems to
00:24:38.940 be doing very well with the resources right now. So whatever investment went in from whatever
00:24:43.500 countries and, uh, they are mining. Well, productivity, right? So, you know,
00:24:49.580 if you look at the pride of productivity factors by industry, mining is one of the highest. So it takes
00:24:55.420 people, it takes innovation, it takes resources, it takes machinery. It's a, it's a great stimulator
00:25:01.340 for productivity that actually stimulates GDP. So they kickstarted it after a bad, you know,
00:25:08.300 after a bad downturn and it actually stimulated growth. They also, you know, leadership wise,
00:25:13.980 um, right now they have a, they have a great prime minister, quite frankly, he's doing a really good
00:25:18.860 job. Uh, very humble, very, you know, uh, focused on the work, focused on the work, uh, not, not needing
00:25:25.980 the money, quite frankly. So doing it because he wants to better the country. So, which is great.
00:25:32.460 Germany. I remember this in 2008, right? And I, and I'm not picking, this was a weird one to not
00:25:37.900 picking on Germany, but Germany always is an interesting test case in everything. When you
00:25:41.660 read it, I always, when I, when I read the German economic stats all the time, it's so interesting
00:25:46.780 to me the way they look at things. So, um, in 2008, what they did is they basically reduced work times.
00:25:55.420 Oh, so to kind of increase, they thought that they would increase their productivity
00:26:01.500 and, uh, they didn't have enough work in the country because the slowdown
00:26:07.660 that they would actually have people work like 30 hours a week. Right.
00:26:10.940 Uh, it, it was a horrifically bad idea, um, that it turned out to have another many social
00:26:18.460 consequences. Well, yeah, I can imagine it did. People left Germany for other jobs. I mean,
00:26:23.180 they lost a brain trust and, and a talent base through it. Yeah. Uh, it, it changed the work
00:26:28.460 ethic for a period of time in Germany, as I recall. Yeah. I thought, I felt this one was a strange one.
00:26:33.900 And, uh, you pointed it out. We actually did it here. We did Ray days. Yeah. We were,
00:26:38.300 remember we were on that in Ontario at one point, we were on a path to do it. And all of a sudden
00:26:43.740 the citizens of Ontario were like, Oh, get out of here. The businesses went bananas. I'm not paying
00:26:48.540 people for, and remember the, the idea was that the businesses would pay people for the time off
00:26:54.540 and not to work. Yeah. So you would still make the same income. You just wouldn't work as much.
00:26:59.580 Yeah. And so how, and the business were like, well, how's that going to increase my product,
00:27:03.420 productivity, my profitability. I still have to hire another shift. How am I going to,
00:27:07.180 yeah. How am I going to buy capital or reinvest? It didn't make any sense. Right.
00:27:11.180 It, it, it has no philosophical economic, uh,
00:27:16.060 Yeah. Germany did support, but they did it. And, and now they're doing, you know,
00:27:19.740 now they've kind of went into, uh, government sustained programs. So, which I think are helping
00:27:27.820 the country, you know, to come back, but it's been a tough comeback for them, um, since 2008.
00:27:33.580 And they have a lot of government supported projects.
00:27:38.460 If you have debt in the country, it always seems to me that you're just building more debt.
00:27:42.540 I, I think unless you're manufacturing, unless you're doing something, unless you're producing
00:27:48.220 something, you don't really, your startup, your restart. First of all, you might not end up closer
00:27:53.900 to a recession, but even if you have to bump out of a recession, it's your resources,
00:27:59.020 your manufacturing, your price per product, and all of that, that's going to really save your country.
00:28:03.740 Yeah. Well, it's interesting. So, you know, it's how deep your recession goes. So this, this is,
00:28:08.540 you know, if you look at the lessons learned from the 1930s to 2008, you know, depression to recession.
00:28:15.580 Yeah. Um, you know, as you get deeper into your recession and closer to depression,
00:28:20.460 quite frankly, you have to stimulate those projects. So, you know, the U S you know, we saw it,
00:28:25.900 you know, 1930s, they, you know, had to actually start to build major projects, you know, the,
00:28:32.460 whether it be the Hoover Dam or roads, highways, all those good things, you know, they had to create
00:28:38.460 big, massive projects to be put people back to work, uh, and get companies moving again to jolt
00:28:44.460 the economy. So that was a huge jolt. They had to get going to get people back.
00:28:47.900 They also had a boost of immigration. They needed to get to work at that time as well.
00:28:51.420 Yeah. I mean, they, they really were in that situation where, well, but you look at Canada,
00:28:55.820 so let's stop for a minute. Cause you know, it's interesting. We have, you know, baby boomers. 0.98
00:29:01.900 We've talked about another shows make up roughly 20% of the population. So kids, you know, make up
00:29:10.220 another 15%. So that's 35 and then unemployed. So we're projecting EI to go up to 10%.
00:29:18.860 And then people who are just not on the EI role, just have left, you know, their welfare or just
00:29:26.700 left the economy. So we're right now, 50% of Canadians are supporting a hundred percent of the pie.
00:29:34.540 Yeah.
00:29:34.780 Yeah. So we're, we're kind of getting a scary, you know, that's the scary math, you know, it's an
00:29:41.900 estimate, but it's a scary, uh, projection because you're having, uh, as it surpasses the 50% mark,
00:29:49.020 you're having a very small part of the population supporting the whole pie.
00:29:52.700 So the, you know, the reason again, our productivity low is so low is that our unemployment's high,
00:29:58.620 our aging population. These are all the things that we're kind of dealing with in this country
00:30:03.340 right now that are causing GDP per capita to drop. And it's, it hasn't been right now. It's been over
00:30:10.620 time.
00:30:11.660 Yeah. It's, uh, interesting because you talk about the United States coming out of the great
00:30:16.140 depression and building these big projects. The projects that they did for infrastructure were the,
00:30:21.340 the Hoover dam and they, they, uh, you know, short up all of their national parks and they build a
00:30:26.300 highways and, and, uh, rail systems and, uh, commuter rail systems. And they really got to work
00:30:32.380 building out a country that wasn't already in the outskirts. They built train stations where there
00:30:38.460 would be towns. They built monuments that would drive Americans to want to drive across their new
00:30:43.820 highways to see this wonderful thing.
00:30:46.140 It made a huge difference for productivity. So you see, that's the leadership piece.
00:30:51.020 If you build a highway, you reduce, uh, you increase productivity because you don't have
00:30:55.820 people sitting on the highway, right? You don't have people not wanting to drive the
00:30:59.260 highway to go to work. So now all of a sudden you have more people working, more people getting
00:31:02.780 there faster. So you create methods to actually get people to their work, get people to invest in
00:31:08.700 their work, uh, logistics, getting materials to factories.
00:31:12.380 So expanding the industrial area in which your country works.
00:31:17.740 Exactly. So that's the key, right? That's the, if you look at a lot of, uh, great, uh,
00:31:22.860 rebounds from recessions, it is people who thought about actually increasing their productivity
00:31:28.140 first. And that's, that's, you know, coming through this and talking about this today,
00:31:33.500 the one thing that keeps coming to mind, we need to set us,
00:31:37.900 we need to start setting some indicators, benchmarks that we look at every month.
00:31:43.660 And we say, okay, we got to hit these because if you don't drive towards those goals for the
00:31:48.460 country, whether it be a GDP per capita growth, whether it be, uh, PPE, uh, you know, whatever
00:31:56.380 we determine that we want to look at, we need to actually set those and drive those benchmarks
00:32:01.580 forward. And by doing that, we can do similar to what they did coming out of the depression. They,
00:32:06.700 they start to drive industry back.
00:32:08.380 If you're building bridges, you've built steel companies, you've, uh, trained people for the
00:32:13.180 next project that comes in. So if you say to a Germany, we can do the bridge, uh, here, we can 0.98
00:32:19.500 build this, we can use our expertise, our steel, and our, you're already ready to go. And that
00:32:24.380 productivity of having those trained people and the, the plant built and the systems in place to
00:32:29.820 transport it, that must increase your productivity and your economy.
00:32:34.060 Exactly. And, but, and also as we do that, it's actually starting to report.
00:32:39.340 And this is, you know, we, we talked about this on another show, Mike,
00:32:43.100 it's actually the PR around doing it. You remember, you remember when they were coming
00:32:47.740 out of the great depression, the amount of PR, you know, we're building dams, we're building
00:32:52.220 highways, we're building roads. We are America, right? Remember that whole,
00:32:56.220 the new Las Vegas is now open. Yeah, exactly.
00:32:59.340 Come to Palm Springs. The highway is now here. Yeah. The route 66 is now ready to go.
00:33:05.420 Exactly. You remember those, you know, the, the advertising, the PR around those,
00:33:10.460 and that is when you get a nation kind of coming back. And so I think as we, you know, as the next
00:33:16.380 few months go by and we're going to do, uh, every month when we get the GDP results, we're going to
00:33:21.100 actually go through them. I think what we need to talk about and what we need to start focusing on
00:33:26.700 is, okay, we're here. You know, did we all want to be in last place in the, in the OECD? No. In the
00:33:33.900 developed country world, out of 38 countries, did we want to have, be projected to have the lowest GDP
00:33:39.820 growth? No, none of us wanted to do that, but we are here. How do we build it back? And what are the
00:33:45.660 plans that we have to do? And what do we recommend to the government to do? That's the other thing.
00:33:50.300 I think that, uh, even I'm hoping that this episode focuses somebody in, uh, you know, one of the,
00:33:57.340 one of the advisory, uh, research houses or, or think tanks here in this country to say,
00:34:05.500 you know what? I think Canadians are ready to focus on getting up that ladder two or three rungs 0.94
00:34:12.540 every couple of years just to get ourselves back into play. We don't need to be the top of the list,
00:34:17.500 although we were near, uh, for many years just to make our way closer to the, uh, to the top of that
00:34:24.140 list. We have to do some things. I hope that this inspires that. Thank you for doing this. I agree.
00:34:29.100 Thank you, Mike. And for those of you, we're going to be doing, uh, a show every month when the GDP
00:34:34.220 results come out from stats Canada. So please, uh, stay tuned, watch, subscribe, uh, and, and let's,
00:34:40.940 if you have any ideas. So I always say at the end of every show, you know, write us, let's talk about
00:34:46.380 it because the more creative we are, the more innovative we are, the faster we get out of this
00:34:51.340 challenge. I'm glad to know that GDP does not stand for a great deal pickles. Like I thought.
00:34:57.100 Thanks Mike.