00:02:03.700But certainly the number of temporary residents, including students and workers, is way too high for us to absorb under the normal stream and still retain the integrity of the stream.
00:02:15.560Because like you just said, there are certain occupations that are in heavy demand in Canada.
00:02:19.840we aren't replacing people like me um or people like me who have skills i should put it that way
00:02:26.580you know um we're not replacing doctors and and and uh accountants and and and many other
00:02:33.140skilled professions including in the construction trades um people who you know they might work a
00:02:39.460little past 65 but not much um because physically it's just hard to do uh um to work and you know
00:02:45.800winters in on construction and they're just not replacing those people or engineering technologists
00:02:51.800or ai technicians who we didn't have anyway we're just not replacing them but in the meantime the
00:02:58.760whole express entry system is based on giving points for people that are young and well educated
00:03:04.200so the people who we were selecting all of a sudden are now not the skills we need
00:03:10.680and we can't absorb as many as there are anyway and it drove up rent prices especially not housing
00:03:18.480prices much that's much more complicated market but certainly drove up rents in in may in the
00:03:23.540major cities with so many students looking for for for accommodation and it also took away from
00:03:31.120the number of jobs available to young Canadians who were you know 16 17 18 working for the summer
00:03:37.360it did those things so they they had this problem now the answer to the problem is not just to say
00:03:43.560well send them home you know when they come here they get valid status they get valid status in
00:03:48.240the sense of a work permit or a study permit the work permits can be renewed the study permits
00:03:53.260once they're finished they get a work permit that's good for either one year or three years
00:03:57.800so you have somebody coming here with a four-year degree and three years
00:04:01.260worth of um work permits that's seven years they they can stay in canada um and if they're not if
00:04:08.860they're able to be adjust as absorbed into the labor force they can continue to stay but eventually
00:04:13.000they want permanent residence and we just don't didn't have the spots for them okay so the it's
00:04:20.020the issue has been well what do you do about those people um and then at the same time the economy
00:04:24.860has shifted enough so that the people we did say could come here and be permanent residents all of
00:04:29.600those hundreds and hundreds of thousands of students they're not the skills we need so what
00:04:34.880do you do well um canada's never been the kind that said well if the economy can't fit you in
00:04:40.560you're supposed to leave i mean that's what we say but if people said we don't want to leave
00:04:45.080we don't have the mechanism to get rid of them to be perfectly frank and we have procedures within
00:04:51.480the law that allow them to stay for a considerable length of time legally okay but when they become
00:04:57.120illegal we don't have the the the procedures or the even the public will to do the the things
00:05:04.180necessary to just throw them out and to be perfectly frank after this week's elections
00:05:09.320in the united states we will never do that um you know the the tough stance that ice took of
00:05:16.680deporting anybody and everybody from nannies to to criminals that they could think of that's you
00:05:21.860know the republicans have now paid a massive price for that um and they know what they really need
00:05:26.800is immigration reform so canada which would have been reluctant to drag people out of church
00:05:31.200basements and throw them onto buses with soldiers guarding them and taking them to the airport we
00:05:36.380would never have tolerated that and and from now on the politicians know they can't do that
00:05:40.540so the question is what do you do with them well if they become out of status and they can't work
00:05:46.920legally they become a very dangerous element in canadian society to the point where we end up
00:05:52.280with an underclass like the United States0.91
00:06:43.840but they didn't have enough capacity to absorb
00:06:47.580all of those people who were here under those programs.
00:06:50.320So they started with this last year when they said, OK, we reduced our permanent resident targets.
00:06:57.140And and I guess another thing that should be explained is up until 2020, 2022, probably 2023, Canadians really didn't care about temporary residents.
00:07:08.720Neither did the Immigration Department. They just said they're temporary. Why do we have to care about them?
00:07:12.300They're going to leave. You know, we have temporary visitors who come here, you know, millions a year.
00:07:17.220they all leave we have lots of temporary foreign workers who leave okay and the same thing with
00:07:22.720students when they're finished some stay some leave but the numbers that they brought in were
00:07:27.740so huge that now they realize they got a whole bunch of people who won't leave so when that
00:07:34.020became public and we looked at canadian canada's population and to be honest with you i always
00:07:38.000thought canada's population was only permanent residents and citizens no they they've included
00:07:42.960temporary residents workers and students for quite some time um but nobody really thought about them
00:07:48.780because let's say it was 150 000 out of 35 million you know so who cared well when all of a sudden it
00:07:55.880became 2 million out of 40 million and even more 3 million out of 40 million now all of a sudden
00:08:02.380people are saying hey what is this so the government realized they have to do something
00:08:07.140about the people that are here. Now, the good news is most of the people who are here, temporary
00:08:13.080residents, are they're studying legitimately, paying huge tuition fees, working a maximum of
00:08:20.32020 hours a week, will work in their own occupations probably after they graduate, and they provide
00:08:26.320a core group of people who we need for the future. They're young, they earn good money, they're well
00:08:32.200educated they speak english you know or french they're people we need but there are a whole
00:08:38.860bunch of other people in there that we just don't have room for like we've been saying so the
00:08:44.140government is is now saying oh my god what do we do with them well last year they came in with a
00:08:49.220couple of special programs they reduced the number of permanent residents under the regular what we
00:08:54.900call regular permanent residents the ones we we select and they said look we're going to add
00:08:59.960another over two years 148 000 people a bunch of them are people who we will eventually become
00:09:08.200permanent residents um you're an approved refugee claimant it's absolutely demonstrated that your1.00
00:09:13.880life is at risk if we have to you know remove you to another country and we can't and we want to
00:09:18.860provide you know safe harbor for those kinds of people and they said look we've got a bunch of
00:09:24.040those people in this country um but because there were so many applications of all kinds
00:09:29.040we just can't process them in four or five years and if it's it's one thing when you're a refugee0.95
00:09:35.660claimant if you're approved you know you're accepted and it's a tough process it's not easy0.95
00:09:40.940people who lie don't get through but if you're there and you get approved and you happen to be
00:09:46.520a father or a mother of family who are outside in a third country in tents or you know refugee camps
00:09:52.880you can't sponsor your family until you are approved right so if you have to wait three
00:09:58.740four or five six years what the government said is look let's bring those families together
00:10:02.960so they added an extra 115 000 over two years for to help them out then they said also we have
00:10:10.780a bunch of people who are approved under humanitarian grounds there are lots of reasons
00:10:15.980why people who come to canada don't fit into one of our categories that we've neatly arranged
00:10:22.060and they end up in canada and we decide that look you know these are people that we can't remove
00:10:27.860either because um you know we can't send them back canada will not send someone back to a
00:10:33.160country to be killed or tortured you know we will not do that and that's in the law but there are
00:10:38.980some people who are for one reason another run afoul of the system and cannot possibly can't
00:10:45.180even afford to leave here so they said those people have been approved they have a you know
00:10:49.940these can be um seniors in some cases who who um can't go home because they're physically incapable
00:10:56.540of doing that or whatever so they get them status by giving them permanent residency
00:11:00.060and they said we're going to take another 48 000 or they're included with the refugees then we're
00:11:05.540going to give another 48 000 we've got a people who are working in in small towns across canada
00:11:10.680been there for two or three years they're performing important services for the people
00:11:15.340in those communities nobody else is going there you know because people are aging out so a nurse
00:11:22.340a home care worker a nurse a medical practitioner they leave they retire there's nobody to replace
00:11:30.140them so those they bring in people from out of the country and now they've been working there
00:11:34.120three or four years but they don't have enough points under the express entry system to get
00:11:37.460permanent residents so they said let's add another what my math another you know up to
00:11:43.14025 000 35 000 people in that category for over two years so they started that last year right okay
00:11:50.600now this year they realized that's not enough and they've been tougher and tougher on programs
00:11:56.300where they're to be honest with you working in this business they're refusing applications
00:12:00.260with qualifications like they never did before um we're seeing more and more of those kind of
00:12:06.220refusals where before it might have been you only had to provide this amount of proof they're all
00:12:10.460good people but whatever now they're refusing more and more applications but that still isn't
00:12:15.720enough to help with this backlog so what are they going to do well they just did it and in the in
00:12:22.040some big surprise but it's almost like their hands are tied they have to do this they're saying well
00:12:27.700look since these people are here already how can anybody argue they're already here working paying
00:12:32.960taxes you know contributing to the economy um and we can't get rid of them so let's make them
00:12:39.320permanent residence but let's do it in a rather clever way because if you tell everybody it's
00:12:46.100okay no matter how you got here or how whether you had the qualification or not we're going to
00:12:50.180make you permanent residence the next thing you know we're going to get a wave of people trying
00:12:53.900to come here all right because any in the past amnesties have only built more unqualified demand
00:13:01.580so now what they're doing is they're saying we're going to have a one-time only exemption here for
00:13:07.300people who are have already applied for permanent residence but are having to wait a long time
00:13:12.580these are people who would again would have been approved anyway like the refugees or whatever
00:13:17.100but these are even better because these are people who you know are gainfully employed0.69
00:13:21.360all right and they're saying but the number is so big let's add another 200 000 this year alone
00:13:28.960to that section so amongst those groups you've got people like the ukrainian refugees
00:13:35.580all right we had some 300 000 refugees come from ukraine and they're different from other refugees
00:13:42.240in the fact that they didn't have to go through the refugee process you know when when the war
00:13:47.160first started in ukraine and the russians looked like they were going to take over within the next
00:13:51.680you know three weeks millions of people fled ukraine and they were they were housed in
00:13:56.840temporary camps in poland and germany and and all over europe and they needed an outlet so
00:14:02.760canada stepped up and said look we'll give you a visitor visa to come to canada right away and when
00:14:07.260you get here you can get a work permit so you can come into canada this this is after covid and we
00:14:13.560needed workers so they brought in any all you had to do is be ukrainian right and for a couple of
00:14:19.440years we brought in like 300 000 people but then and the hope was when the war ended most of them
00:14:25.800would go back because ukraine you know may not be up to canada's standards but it was still
00:14:29.820it was home to all these people and many of them expressed an interest saying look if we have to
00:14:34.740stay here three months or six months we'll go home well we all know now the war is in its fifth year
00:14:41.200and it's not ending so those people have been in Canada for this length of time they haven't gone
00:14:47.460home they're staying in Canada so what do they do well they they work they provide you know
00:14:52.920economic benefit to Canadians they marry Canadians whatever and again the government was thinking
00:14:57.600they would get absorbed some of them will get absorbed because they marry canadians
00:15:01.080their english improves and they qualify for the express entry system the regular streams that
00:15:06.720we're going through but they stopped so when that didn't work and after it looked like the
00:15:12.280war was going to be there for it was lasting longer they came in with a program where they
00:15:16.720could apply for permanent residence as ukrainians okay well that program was oversubscribed
00:15:22.160immediately and it was closed in 2024 but there's i think there's something like um
00:15:29.76050 000 people now waiting for their files to be processed so the government just said okay 50 000
00:15:36.960people by the way that's about a hundred thousand persons we're going to get we're going to allow
00:15:41.760you to we're going to process those files separate from all the other 380 000 that we're accepting
00:15:47.360and the same sort of argument is now you know that i'm going to happen with more refugee cases
00:15:54.400okay so we're not we now have an immigration program that says we're operating
00:16:00.400uh um four hundred three hundred eighty thousand temporary or permanent residents which is the same
00:16:05.260as always been but we're adding another two hundred thousand this year plus um what 70 000
00:16:11.300from the the second half of the what they started last year um and that's what we're going to do but
00:16:17.760because these people are all here already the public will accept that and frankly given the
00:16:25.600the change in attitude about immigration over the last six to 12 months which now is more balanced
00:16:31.140i would say um there there this is very much a political decision you know for all the i just
00:16:38.600give me a whole bunch of details about how the system works and why they're doing this sort of
00:16:42.500thing well the real answer is they're going to do what's politically safe for them to do
00:16:47.880otherwise they could have asked for 600 000 extra people this year because they're all here anyway
00:16:53.960but what i'm expecting is next year they're going to do it again okay last year when they brought
00:16:59.960in the first you know they announced the two-year program for 148 000 my first thought was that's
00:17:06.120That's last year. This year, they're going to do it again. Well, they've done it again, only with 200,000. So to me, it looks like they're going to deflate this balloon. And you can make the argument that it's for the betterment of Canadian society, because the option is not send them home. The option is create an underclass of people who could be exploited and vulnerable.
00:17:26.300so they're making the the choice and it's not a it's not the best choice and and it's caused not
00:17:33.620you know you and i didn't cause this it's their system and and the senior people involved in the
00:17:38.940system not the politicians who just were not watching you know they knew every day how many
00:17:45.260students were coming and they didn't watch right okay sorry that's a real short answer to your
00:17:51.400question so i thought um no no no it's it's really good so just so you know and so i got the numbers
00:17:59.000right phil so the 200 000 are the people that are here yes yeah okay i get it so all right so
00:18:08.120and the 380 are new people the 380 are people some of them are here okay okay um because you know if
00:18:16.280you're in canada and you but they're they're not ones that are they don't they haven't already
00:18:20.600applied right okay okay those are here either going to school or whatever but they haven't
00:18:26.700applied yeah or they will apply or maybe they've applied under the normal streams okay well for
00:18:31.500example their spouses you know somebody got married last month and their spouse is sponsoring
00:18:36.060them uh there's a small number of parents and grandparents um there's all the people that have
00:18:42.380been applying regularly um because the number of people they're they're saying they're in they're
00:18:48.200they're going to accept versus the number of people who apply because most of them are now
00:18:53.400invited to apply you know the 380 is how many they will will actually process and become permanent
00:18:59.960residents in the next well in 2027 okay so a bunch of applications are in the stream
00:19:06.760and and a lot of these applications a lot of these people have their applications in different
00:19:10.920streams they're just not moving um i'll give you one of the examples there's something called a
00:19:17.240startup visa class which we've talked about in the past which was a disaster from day one
00:19:22.500but there are 47 000 outstanding applications in the system and each of those applications
00:19:29.560is approximately two people okay um well they they changed the rules after these people
00:19:39.280were told what the rules were um and so we know of those 47 000 applications they're only approving
00:19:45.360about 30 percent but the quota for them this year was 500 people wow so you've got 15 000 people
00:19:53.440applications of which it's at least two and a half persons per application because these are families
00:19:58.720so that means 40 or 50 000 people and they're applying they're they're approving 500 that's
00:20:04.920the target for this year well that means they've got to wait 85 years well now so what they're
00:20:09.400going to do is they're going to accept a whole bunch of those they're going to process those
00:20:13.160people this next year out of that 200 000 okay um and and the same thing with caregivers there's two
00:20:20.440or three different caregiver programs and there's a backlog of some 30 or 40 000 caregivers who've
00:20:25.720been waiting two three four years to come to canada they've legally been here they've filed
00:20:30.600their applications they qualify for the programs but the backlog is so big so those are the the
00:20:36.760200 000 they're all people who've applied already they this isn't going to tell allow one person who
00:20:42.200hasn't applied to come into canada they're all people who are who have applied and are here
00:20:47.960okay right okay so interesting so my my initial question so it doesn't really help
00:20:56.200at the end of the day it doesn't really help the problem that we have
00:21:02.280well and that's the shortage of skilled so it doesn't really address to your
00:21:06.760beginning point because they're already here working we have the shortages now that's what
00:21:10.440what the 380,000 is for of those 380,000 approximately 200,000 are economic class
00:21:17.000okay maybe 220,000 okay and that number is about the same as before but the the reason the way
00:21:24.600they're going to get the right people in is instead of those 220,000 people now being students
00:21:29.460who went to school for one year and worked one year and are 22 years of age and don't have the
00:21:34.300right skills they now have done a couple of different things they've changed the express
00:21:39.380entry system it's not the same as it was where just most points wins now they you know everybody
00:21:45.720throws their name in a hat and they pick the people off the top that's what express entry was
00:21:50.420until two years ago now what they've done is they've divided the pool into sections and they're
00:21:55.740saying okay you're a medical professional okay we don't care you don't need to have as many points
00:22:01.900as the 24 year old master's degree student with you know in in liberal arts you're a medical
00:22:07.220professional we're going to select from your category only the same with construction workers
00:22:12.940the same with certain IT professions the one area that I don't agree with is they also have a section
00:22:21.040that said we want to increase the population of French-speaking people outside Quebec so there's
00:22:27.100actually of all of the hundred thousand express entry applications some thirty thousand of them
00:22:32.760are going to people who all they need to qualify is a job offer and a French language test
00:22:40.160at a modest level. All right. And so a whole lot of people are doing that and they're saying,
00:22:46.500well, this is, and you must be coming to live outside of Quebec. So they're trying to increase
00:22:51.680those numbers, but they had their own study last spring that said, okay, we've been doing this for
00:22:57.900about a year and a half or two years, bringing these people in as permanent residence. They've
00:23:01.960got a job offer but what they're finding is when the market switches the jobs aren't that great
00:23:08.580and the people who are coming in can't find other work how many jobs do you know in ontario or
00:23:16.340saskatchewan that that require bilingualism you know because they certainly don't require people
00:23:22.540who are unilingual french right you don't you don't have a job offer in saskatoon for somebody
00:23:27.400who could only speak French you know I mean so you so they're saying and so what's been happening
00:23:32.440is a lot of those people are coming in and their jobs don't last okay or their temporary jobs and
00:23:38.960where do they where do they go to look for work they go to Quebec because now they're permanent
00:23:43.780residents and Quebec can't stop them and you've got a government in Quebec that's saying we have1.00
00:23:48.500too many we have too many we don't want as many so right I mean this program and yet the allocation
00:23:55.300and it was almost a lead line in the minister's talk about the levels plan
00:24:00.600was that we want to increase, and they are,
00:24:02.740they're increasing the percentage of permanent residents
00:24:06.000living outside Quebec who speak French.
00:24:08.800Now, that's a political decision entirely.
00:28:19.100So now student numbers have gone down, and then you have, I guess, to layer on top of that, you know, the Alberta, I don't know if you followed the referendum in Alberta bill on all the things going on, but then you have provinces starting to get into immigration policy on their own, quite frankly, or trying to get into immigration policy as far as dictating, you know, if someone does move there, you know,
00:28:49.100whether they'll pay for their own medical costs there of course they're doing education now
00:28:53.740so there's and then quebec is so little by little the provinces are shifting into that
00:29:00.380let's call it that's not what's really happening okay except for the quebec accord which gives
00:29:06.060them the right to choose most types of permanent permanent residents but not refugees not some
00:29:12.380other areas as well um the ottawa controls the immigration program and it dictates to the
00:29:20.300provinces how many they get and who they get there's no question about that and the the one
00:29:27.500question on the referendum that wasn't associated with immigration questions but which which
00:29:32.860solidified the ottawa's authority to do that was the question on whether or not when the province
00:29:39.340and ottawa have jurisdiction shared jurisdiction which is an immigration in the bna act is a shared
00:29:45.740jurisdiction okay but the law says if there's a conflict between the two the federal government
00:29:53.340has paramountcy you know and that says when that was question eight i think on the referendum that
00:30:00.620said provinces should have the right if they don't agree with a federal government with a
00:30:05.420a law a federal law whatever they should have the right to opt out well that was devoted down
00:30:12.700so because that lost the questions on immigration are really moot and all you're hearing is
00:30:18.620politicians being you know nice to each other because the feds don't want to alienate the
00:30:23.420people that vote in alberta by saying no you know they're saying yes we'll work together
00:30:28.780well they do work together now they they work together and it goes in waves they first brought
00:30:33.420in provincial nomination programs as a way to get the federal government out of all the big
00:30:39.200decisions on on immigration but it was controlled by ottawa but they gave the the provinces the
00:30:45.240right in certain areas to pick their own immigrants well the provinces screwed it up
00:30:49.380okay the first time around um you know they they and so the fed said you're not bringing in family
00:30:55.100people period you don't know how to do that you're not bringing in refugees you're not bringing any
00:30:58.820it's only economic immigrants all right and then several provinces tried to do their own thing with
00:31:04.580regards to entrepreneurs and the provinces shut them down i mean the feds shut them down and then
00:31:09.980ontario was another province which didn't have a provincial nominee program because they didn't
00:31:14.300need one because 55 of all the people came to ontario anyway but they finally did bring in a
00:31:20.060bit of a program but it was always more just a little bit and it wasn't until the feds on started
00:31:26.280bringing in people who couldn't find work and then the provincial governments had to had to
00:31:31.160basically fund the unemployment insurance rolls and the welfare costs that they started pushing
00:31:39.200Ottawa to say we want to pick some people so the pendulum swings back a little bit as to what
00:31:44.400they're able to do or allowed to do but in the last year when Ottawa cut back the numbers from
00:31:50.900you know 500,000 down to 380,000 they didn't ask the provinces and they cut provincial allocations
00:31:57.700by as much as 50 percent they didn't ask them for for for their opinion so that we can you know
00:32:04.780even though the referendum questions put immigration questions on the map the ones that
00:32:09.360had anything to do with the the the federal authority went will go nowhere one or two of
00:32:15.520them were about should immigrants pay for health care well it's a strange thing if if you're an
00:32:21.080immigrant coming to canada you're a student coming to canada and you come to ontario you don't get
00:32:26.220health care you have to buy into an insurance program if you're a student coming to alberta
00:32:31.200to study in alberta you get health care right away so alberta already had the most liberal
00:32:37.480rules for new people coming into the country at the same time if you're a permanent if you're
00:32:43.500coming in as a worker you're paying you know you're being paid by an employer and you and the
00:32:49.300employer are paying for your health care you're paying unemployment insurance you're paying
00:32:52.420Canada pension and Alberta wanted to say well for some of these people maybe they shouldn't get
00:32:57.600anything for 12 months well the feds are never going to agree to that and and by the way neither
00:33:02.640will most people you know if if Alberta tried to do that you know and the question being asked was
00:33:08.400does danielle still um does she like tea you know because this is taxation without representation
00:33:14.080um and and we know what happens there so i i think you're you're you see the noise going on
00:33:21.540about the provinces frankly it makes sense for the provinces to pick what types of workers they
00:33:27.440need for special areas that they have a priority for and provinces have the right to manage their
00:33:33.040own economy you know and and the federal government has the right to tax but they also have the right
00:33:39.360in immigration to say how much control they're willing to give up and for how long
00:33:44.200interesting so hey phil the question is jumping to my mind thank you for that clarification
00:33:50.980the next one that's jumping to my mind is housing now so then it's interesting so because
00:33:56.020again on the budget uh the budget show we just did you know there's a there's a lofty number
00:34:01.680in the budget for affordable housing you know for the government to build houses and also to provide
00:34:07.200loans and subsidization for different types of housing across canada um and now with the it's a
00:34:15.280unique situation to your point where you're they're creating this um i don't even know how did you
00:34:20.960refer to it off kind of off the books worker right that basically is kind of caught in the middle
00:34:27.520not going to get into the pr system underclass not going to want to leave um so but their ability
00:34:36.080ever to get into that affordable housing unit is non-existent really because at that point how it
00:34:42.240how do they they're not really here on the books they're they're here like you said they're working
00:34:47.280for cash they're working side jobs they're working hustles so quite frankly they're not going to be0.99
00:34:52.560able to show t4s and any a lot of the things they're doing there so it's a it's like a it's0.77
00:34:59.500a black market worker really right so yeah so when they refer to this whole housing conundrum0.97
00:35:06.040with respect to immigration they're referring to the people who only who are in the system and
00:35:10.780working towards the pr working towards or or or the student but the student numbers have declined
00:35:17.260so much i'm trying to figure out who they're aiming at at this point so that because i don't
00:35:22.080know if it's a disconnect again it's a disconnect that they're actually ramping up this number
00:35:27.100thinking and maybe it's just they're not well maybe they do understand that they're creating
00:35:32.340this subset of individual well they're they're trying to prevent the creation of that underclass
00:35:38.280okay because they know they can't get rid of them so now they're absorbing them into the system
00:35:42.940properly so they can become permanent residents but they're like i said if if they wanted to do
00:35:48.560it all in one fell swoop they would have they would have said instead of 200 000 it would have
00:35:51.660been a million too yeah so for now there's still maybe a million people who are are you know some
00:35:58.000of those people will leave you know we just don't know how many um and some of them will find
00:36:03.200employment some of them will marry Canadians you know some will be absorbed and what they're
00:36:07.080indicating now is they're going to try and and and make this a two-year problem a three-year problem
00:36:11.920and one of the key elements it's a reward is they want these people to stay in status
00:36:16.080because if you're out of status you're not qualifying for anything people don't realize
00:36:20.320that if you lose your status in canada you can't apply for anything in canada okay now you right
00:36:26.720you could marry a canadian okay and and that's normal um but that comes with its own challenges
00:36:33.600um you know i've told clients that it's much better to be uh um uh live in another country
00:36:40.000than to be married to the wrong person right um right but right now they're they're managing this
00:36:48.320bulge okay because it's it is temporary and they will get rid of it um they'll make other mistakes
00:36:54.400unfortunately you know we hope they aren't as serious as this this has been the most serious0.98
00:36:59.360and again right it's serious because if they didn't do something and they create this underclass0.89
00:37:05.040society changes the respect for law changes you know the the criminal element succeeds um you know
00:37:13.200because they can exploit people who have no other options and some of some of that will happen but
00:37:19.200i don't believe that's going to happen in terms of housing it's purely you know the housing market
00:37:23.440has now been demonstrated that it's it's not immigrants that change the housing market except0.65
00:37:29.200when they don't come okay um right and and you know we we all thought everybody thought that0.99
00:37:35.520the housing market had hit the bottom and starting to go up and look what's happening again it's
00:37:39.680continuing to go down um and so that's that's a problem they took the speculation out five years
00:37:45.780ago or so when they said people who are not permanent residents or senior citizens i or
00:37:50.940citizens i'm a senior citizen um citizen if they're not citizens or permanent residents they
00:37:56.260cannot buy a home and that took the speculators that the chinese people who bought 12 condos in
00:38:01.900in a building in toronto and you know vancouver and all this stuff because they had the money and
00:38:06.520They didn't know where to put it, you know, um, that, that's gone from the market.
00:38:10.800And, and boy, I would not want to have been a real estate speculator in the last two years,
00:38:15.160because all you would do is lose money, you know, and, and you, you've been around long
00:38:19.360enough to know that at one time, everybody thought that houses could do nothing but go
00:38:23.380up forever, you know, until the, until the late eighties, when they went down for a little
00:38:33.560No, no, I've been through it twice now.
00:38:35.000been through it in florida and now here again in my lifetime so yeah i've seen that i've seen the
00:38:40.120bottom on this on that market for sure so housing will write i guess uh you know if if the let's call
00:38:47.640it the bubble if the bubble subsides just due to phased in uh permanent residency and there's no
00:38:56.680uh there's no backlog behind it coming then you know they'll they'll morph into i guess
00:39:04.600whatever number of houses are being built under the current system yeah to to make it so and i'm
00:39:11.960trying to figure i guess where i i love the the analysis and that's what i'd love to see at some
00:39:16.280point someone frame it out for me is what does that look like so you know the the economist or
00:39:22.920the actuarial who's actually doing those numbers and trying to match those two up together and
00:39:28.760saying okay we we do need so much housing because this is what it looks like i i still i struggle
00:39:34.760with the numbers i i'm truth truthful with you phil i i really struggle with um if they do connect
00:39:42.040at all well the answer is they connect but it's not a big factor the real in my experience you
00:39:50.760know having lived a few more years you know you've been around a little while i've been on a long
00:39:54.440while um and live through the housing markets um and continue to you know i'm not an economist but
00:40:00.780it's really clear that the biggest difference or the biggest issue in housing is the balance
00:40:06.620between renting and owning okay right when um people make enough money to be able to afford
00:40:13.180a house um they buy it okay um if they can't afford it they rent or if they you know there's
00:40:21.560there's fringes around all of that but it's moved from renting to buying um that that drives housing
00:40:29.160demand and housing prices and right now we're in a situation where there's two factors going
00:40:35.240um the population of people eligible to buy a house and wanting to buy a house has actually
00:40:42.440dropped because of our low birth rate and even immigration hasn't been keeping up until recently
00:40:48.120um so so there are fewer 25 35 year olds you know who've been now working and want to have kids and
00:40:54.980you know all that stuff so right that's part of it and the other part is mortgage rates um
00:41:00.780you know a change in mortgage rate has a bigger effect on on the market now in terms of disposable
00:41:08.400income and you know some people blame it on one thing or another i blame it on the fact that we
00:41:12.760have so many things to spend money on these days compared with you know a hundred years ago when i
00:41:17.980was newlywed, you know, and you're worried about food and stuff like that, and you didn't
00:41:25.300have, you know, everybody didn't have a cell phone, and everybody didn't have televisions
00:41:28.780with, you know, 15 streaming services, and, and, and, and, and, you know, we didn't have
00:41:33.840all those options, and so housing was something you could do.
00:41:41.120I think that's the biggest factor, that there just isn't the demand for, you know, and which
00:41:46.520is why we're seeing house prices come down and we're seeing new homes not being built at the
00:41:51.680same time rental properties are being built more and more now but you know these are three and five
00:41:56.620three to five year swings that they're talking about and it will swing back as long as the
00:42:02.820fundamentals come along that said yeah we want we want orderly growth in in house availability and
00:42:11.480in in in pricing you know every time you run a shortage of one or the other you get extremes
00:42:18.380and you know vancouver toronto hit extremes because of high demand and low supply right
00:42:24.960i think now the supply side to me i'm wondering with the demand for housing new housing still not
00:42:31.640picking up or condos whatever and the federal government saying we need to build more housing
00:42:37.700well wait a minute if we already have enough supply so that the price is coming down why do
00:42:43.800we need more housing it's changed from two years ago when we needed more housing to the fact we're
00:42:50.160now if is this a question of if they build it you know they will come um i don't understand that but
00:42:57.740no and and who's coming i guess that's the question on the immigration side i'm trying to
00:43:02.780figure out phil is who's coming to fill those houses so that's that's where i struggle with
00:43:07.440I mean, I know most immigrants don't buy a new house.1.00
00:43:13.480No, no. And most new immigrants, you know, honestly, the team, the teams that I have in my business, you know, who went to school and came here for an education and employment are living in a house, co-sharing houses.0.99
00:51:59.920They did this before with the federal investor program.
00:52:02.560And when they had to cancel 20,000 files of people that just were giving money to become permanent residents, like it or lamp it, but they couldn't manage the program.
00:52:11.040they couldn't manage an entrepreneur program that said we'll give you pr and if you create two jobs
00:52:15.900you can keep it by the time they got to evaluate whether they did the two jobs they didn't know
00:52:20.080how to find people you know and so they had to cancel that program and now they've canceled the
00:52:24.540suv program you know and they've they've left um tens of thousands of people who have come to
00:52:30.880canada started businesses um looking at 80 year wait times you know that's where some of this
00:52:37.920200 000 people are going to be they're going to grant them permanent residence but they couldn't
00:52:43.140manage the program they just meant they're horrible so the department hates business
00:52:48.280immigration um and they don't ask the right people there's there's lots of people out there
00:52:53.640they could ask and get the program right including people in the business you know who who handle
00:52:58.780business immigration for this and other countries and there are ways to do it and you can win from
00:53:03.880but but nobody asks it's the department itself you know it's it's it's part of a legacy they've
00:53:10.420had for for for a couple of decades um right well that's that's unfortunate but definitely i hope
00:53:16.840you know i hope they listen at some point yes you know thank you i really appreciate it you know i
00:53:22.480i leave them with the pause you know it's nice because uh when we were talking and doing shows
00:53:27.400you know for the last six months eight months you know some of the shows we were doing were pretty
00:53:32.040you know we're pretty negative so i'm glad it sounds like we're getting getting on a better
00:53:37.000track which is good and yeah we are and you know if you learn from mistakes the department is is
00:53:42.100you know hopefully the department's getting smarter all the time you know because they're
00:53:46.000learning they make a lot of mistakes and they're learning from them you know um but we can see the
00:53:51.580the progress this this this budget and this new levels plan um certainly is is worthwhile and i
00:54:00.120I mean, it looks like it's addressing the real problem of these temporary people, a problem they created, you know, the department created.
00:54:10.080And so you can feel good and bad about that.
00:54:13.200The bad part is I know everybody that loves on the political side wants to blame Trudeau or blame the politicians.
00:54:20.200Unfortunately, the politicians don't know enough about how this works to even screw it up.
00:54:24.740all they know is what they want politically but the department manages the politicians
00:54:31.440they give them what they want in a way that the department likes not right not what's good for
00:54:36.720anybody okay sorry i don't even know these people but i know what they do and i know how they work
00:54:42.780because i've worked with them in the past on different programs and it's just the way it works
00:54:47.300yeah no no thank you and thanks for taking the time i really appreciate it um and then
00:54:54.120And look forward, you know, always lots of things popping.