True Patriot Love - October 16, 2025


Carney's Budget Crisis： Will Liberals Survive？


Episode Stats

Length

49 minutes

Words per Minute

203.07803

Word Count

10,090

Sentence Count

11

Misogynist Sentences

3

Hate Speech Sentences

4


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 well mark carney promised discipline but his upcoming budget promises to blow the doors off
00:00:10.360 with billions and new spending and now even his own mps are grumbling ministers shuffled veterans
00:00:16.400 pushed aside and the caucus whispering about who's really in charge it's the kind of infighting that
00:00:22.440 eats governments alive and in rising debt costs provinces crying foul and the opposition circling
00:00:29.360 suddenly the words non-confidence vote are back on the hill canadians may not have expected another
00:00:36.200 election so soon but the way this government is burning through money and loyalty november might
00:00:41.640 be closer than anyone thought joining me today to talk more about this tpl's very own paul micucci
00:00:48.040 and jim lang hello well does carney uh have a problem on his hands right now from within
00:00:54.300 paul yeah i think he does right you know if you look at the key pillars of the government right
00:00:59.940 now that he's uh uh coming against across canada you know from the east to the west he's seeing
00:01:08.140 challenges so i think what he's trying to do he's trying to sure up his caucus and try to get people
00:01:13.400 in the right place just in case so he you know he's fireproofing his cabinet um just in case that
00:01:19.660 non-confidence does come and i think that's based on how he's being pushed with these issues
00:01:24.520 across canada and you see it now you know the shuffles which i know jim you you know have better
00:01:30.080 handle on it than i do but why don't you go through just how he's moving people around and i think how
00:01:35.280 he's moving people around and strategically where uh their foothold in canada for votes is is very
00:01:41.460 important because you see some of the strategic moves to make sure when he does announce or make the
00:01:47.020 budget decision they have enough strength in those areas to keep uh those votes alive indeed yeah and
00:01:53.640 in fact it looks to me like this is only the beginning of the list well jonathan wilkinson's
00:01:57.600 a prime example he was a a trudeau loyalist and uh jonathan wilkinson and justin trudeau were very
00:02:04.660 tied to the hip on their mindset you know pro environment all electric vehicles no no tankers no
00:02:10.900 pipelines and he got moved aside to the minister of natural resources and now you have tim hodgson
00:02:16.260 from markham thorn hill who is not quite as left-leaning as jonathan wilkinson now is your
00:02:23.180 new energy of natural resources and that's an interesting paradigm shift within the liberal
00:02:28.820 caucus it's funny because paul made this real clear to us in our meeting we we prior to the show
00:02:33.680 we both went well that's true well of course we don't really need to be in the west worrying about
00:02:38.980 oil or pipelines or tankers we've made a commitment already to electric av right so you know in ontario
00:02:46.880 we you know this is the challenge right now with stalantis in the last few days kind of uh telling
00:02:52.120 us they're leaving and we've already built plants you know with volkswagen stalantis uh we have nuclear
00:02:59.480 plants gearing up with 39 billion in spend we have over 50 billion in spend a huge amount to the grid
00:03:05.760 to support this right the plants are finishing right so and you know potentially they're going
00:03:10.680 to be these millions and millions of square feet empty um that we're going to have to do something
00:03:16.100 with so quite frankly we've already made the transition to ev for those of people in ontario
00:03:21.460 you know that are still wondering you know oil gas you know that that ship has sailed you know whether
00:03:28.580 or not we sell more to the u.s or abroad that's another issue but quite frankly within canada
00:03:33.920 it's we've made the commitment we are all going to electric cars there's no well if ends or buts
00:03:40.160 that's true paul and i don't dispute that yeah but the infrastructure is nowhere near where it needs to
00:03:45.420 be and i interviewed dan mctagg and he explained in great detail the struggles with the infrastructure
00:03:51.960 in canada if you drive outside of major urban areas across canada and get into rural parts of canada
00:03:59.100 into the trans canada highway good luck finding a charging station it's great within montreal and
00:04:04.720 vancouver and calgary and toronto because there's lots of urban charging stations but once you get
00:04:10.500 outside of that that becomes an issue i don't even know if canadians are really prepared to put a
00:04:14.320 charging station in their home so much of our uh populated areas are in condos do we have the grid to
00:04:20.520 handle it or the outlets or in fact the finance in our bank accounts to pay for an electric car
00:04:26.820 it leads me to the and we're not making them here in canada so there's no benefit to us uh you know
00:04:32.700 in that market where are the electric cars going to come from we're going to pay way more for them
00:04:37.900 coming out of the u.s or we're going to make a deal with another country let's see who's making cars
00:04:42.760 china oh china yeah yeah no no i get it but you know uh that ship sailed right we're into it for 100
00:04:49.400 billion now yeah there's no going back so whether you know and i had this conversation with you
00:04:54.960 earlier when they made that announcement like two years ago i was mortified i was like i fell on the
00:05:00.320 floor i'm like this is a terrible call awful right no one really said much so they said okay great
00:05:07.380 nothing happened you know they went forward they got elected right that decision had been made in the
00:05:12.420 trudeau area it went and they're past it now so in their minds they've where we might be still
00:05:18.460 talking about it and i know the west coast of canada um you know the there's the alberta
00:05:24.360 equation and quite frankly the fight between alberta and bc right now with respect to running
00:05:30.160 pipelines and everything but as far as the the federal government goes this is kind of a foregone
00:05:36.180 conclusion it's done they've spent the money they've subsidized you know they sent money to
00:05:40.480 enter to enhance nuclear plants they've uh you know spent the money done the deals with the the
00:05:47.380 auto companies in conjunction with the provinces so that ship's gone it's out we're not going back
00:05:54.020 we're gonna have to go forward and quite frankly those charging stations and all the grids and all
00:05:59.840 the things we have to upgrade that's coming in the budget somewhere so but the irony is paul that the
00:06:06.740 prime minister and his entourage are being driven around and gas powered suvs and lemos yeah so he's
00:06:13.300 saying that but he's got a fleet of chevy suburbans with a bulletproof glass that drives him around from
00:06:19.380 his residence to the airport don't forget the last guy uh in his position was talking about how he and
00:06:24.960 his family drink from boxes so i mean really engaging with the environment i don't think is is the actual
00:06:30.400 reality but the interesting thing about this move so back to this move with the cabinet and everything
00:06:35.100 else in markham right high tech exactly so you usually you're not worried about the west coast of
00:06:41.140 canada now you want to be in a high tech high investment sector because to jim's point this is
00:06:47.960 going to take a real push of technology to move charging stations to move electrical grids so this is
00:06:56.040 where you got to be on the tech zone so you don't need to refining and oil patches and all that good
00:07:02.440 stuff they're not thinking that right they're thinking i got to be in tech zone because i got
00:07:07.540 to make this happen so you know switch okay strategic and also of course ontario right having
00:07:14.560 a strong liberal backing right that's where he wants to sure up his base yeah if that was one of those
00:07:21.060 areas that could really swing uh markham thorn hill yeah there was a battle that was a battle
00:07:26.220 it was intense battle uh and so to put somebody there to actually say okay we're moving this agenda
00:07:30.960 forward we're using technology it's in in the farm equipment is run by diesel engines all the
00:07:36.980 tractors all the tractor trailers that transport the goods we can't i understand the the need to
00:07:43.160 say get as many electric vehicles in the country as possible but until they create the technology we
00:07:49.460 will need diesel fuel to transport goods from point a to point b there's no way around well i don't see
00:07:54.560 anything in the in the spending that we've done so far that uh sets us up in manufacturing our own
00:07:59.060 vehicles whether it is farming or i mean maybe that's where we begin where we need it to make
00:08:05.600 the biggest difference but to be honest with you i don't see a combine and maybe i don't understand
00:08:09.800 the technology i don't see a combine out there running a lithium battery yeah three kilometers out
00:08:15.740 into the uh into the cut and not not in the short term i'm only going to say that to you not in the
00:08:21.420 short term so i think diesel has you know it has its life still but quite frankly uh our cars like
00:08:28.620 passenger vehicles you know light uh light trucks all that good stuff you're going to ev but i'm see
00:08:35.800 i have a hybrid toyota and i swear by it and when you break it charges the battery and when you're
00:08:41.660 driving along the engine stops and the battery runs the vehicle and we get double the mileage of a
00:08:47.320 regular vehicle so you get the best of both worlds but they have the can the safety and the confidence
00:08:52.560 that what if we can't plug in i don't have to worry about plugging in because the engine would charge
00:08:57.720 the battery you don't plug your car in no it's a non-plug-in hybrid i'm sorry you're gonna have to
00:09:02.820 move we only have ev here i mean that's that's the problem that's the view that we have is so far
00:09:08.780 advanced so much money was spent on that infrastructure it was just to buy votes well and and that you know
00:09:15.660 that horse has left the gate right i guess we're you know we're in that right the election happened
00:09:19.400 and quite frankly you know the liberals got in that was their agenda and that's where they've gone
00:09:23.800 another one that shocked me was uh the shuffle that uh happened in the east coast uh some key
00:09:30.140 positions were moved to different parts of the country that were really ontario and quebec centric
00:09:36.920 we've now he's shuffled those into different parts of the country especially pei new brunswick and nova
00:09:42.780 scotia right because they lost seats in the maritimes in the last election and even all the
00:09:48.340 political pundits were quite surprised the inroads that the conservatives made in the maritimes which
00:09:53.720 is historically very very liberal and they're getting a lot of heat as well because the those places are
00:10:00.320 dying on the vine that are resource uh fortified uh by mining uh by forestry by fishing all of these
00:10:09.380 things that have been consistently reduced and and frankly driven communities out of business well
00:10:15.400 and mike you have people in the maritimes now commuting 45 minutes an hour an hour and a half
00:10:19.800 from where they live because they can afford it to where they work which is unheard of
00:10:24.180 and a lot of maritime communities that you would have a commute like that they associate that
00:10:28.220 with vancouver toronto montreal not in moncton or halifax i mean i don't know what what words come out
00:10:33.500 of the mouths of these people now in these markets uh representing our government and and the liberal
00:10:39.020 party but they have a battle on their hands still just even being there i think well it's it's a
00:10:44.760 national problem we see people strung out on drugs in community parks across the country homeless
00:10:51.380 encampments across the country there is a fear a security fear for people with carjackings and
00:10:58.200 smash and grabs and malls and home invasions that didn't exist and they're not just in the city
00:11:02.860 they're now in the suburbs and bedroom communities in places across canada that never experienced
00:11:08.040 crime like that before that is true and you also don't forget you you have in the upcoming budget
00:11:12.860 you have a huge dispense sorry defense spend coming yeah so quite frankly the east coast of canada is
00:11:20.080 where some of that's going to happen big time right so and the military military recruitment and the
00:11:26.120 basically commitment to defense has been primarily in the east coast yeah and in the right well the
00:11:30.640 serving shipyard in halifax is a massive company exactly so you're going to see a boatload of money
00:11:36.280 spent down on the east coast so quite frankly strategically moving people or ministers into
00:11:41.360 that area makes sense when you're coming into such a again an out of control high budget spend for a
00:11:48.540 deficit um you know you're going to say to those people you're going to benefit because we're going
00:11:52.960 to spend it on defense so hang with us as liberals um and and that's why strategically i would i think it's a
00:11:59.340 good move on his part he moves a minister down there you know someone who has presence he gives
00:12:04.120 them comfort that there's a huge amount of government spending coming their way and actual
00:12:08.180 attention they've got a focus on them great which is a big deal yeah so it helps them but okay shows
00:12:13.120 it up shows up votes on the east coast totally agree because carney's run into some speed bumps
00:12:19.360 along the way that maybe no one expected losing to the stalantis plant in brampton going down to
00:12:25.380 illinois all of a sudden crime and safety and bail reform has become a huge issue across the country
00:12:31.140 not just in pockets people still struggling to feed themselves a lot of those things are issues that
00:12:36.380 people want to have addressed and then at the same time staring at a budget deficit far beyond anything
00:12:42.880 anyone thought possible he's got a bully neighbor to the south of us yes shore up your border shore up
00:12:48.360 your immigration uh you know you're not taking anything for free from us anymore we still have problems
00:12:54.400 around the world that we're dealing with at the same time but those are blocking ndp see the
00:12:58.880 interesting thing in my mind is those are blocking ndp problems now a little bit right because so now
00:13:04.580 he's kind of where before you know the block was just trying to get to a provincial election
00:13:10.720 um before all the things you mentioned with auto and other things that were started happening
00:13:17.160 um so they were kind of like okay whatever the budget is we're going to vote it if it's 60 if it's
00:13:21.740 70 if it's what 80 right i don't know if anyone was prepared for a hundred billion dollar budget
00:13:26.220 deficit but you know the block was kind of like just get us you know uh they share uh resources
00:13:32.700 provincially and federally so they're not equipped for a big election charge on two fronts right
00:13:39.020 because they definitely do not want to lose their hold provincially so they were just like okay whatever
00:13:44.280 happens we'll vote it through and you know let's get the provincial election knocked down do well in
00:13:48.400 that and then we'll live to fight another day that was kind of but now i think it's kind of uh
00:13:53.740 positioned them in a weird spot because now quite frankly i think they see most of canada looking at
00:14:00.480 them and probably at home you know where in quebec they're probably saying it's a mess he's at 100
00:14:06.840 billion if you concede and vote with him on the budget we're gonna have a hard time with you
00:14:11.860 provincially and exactly so it's kind of middle them a little and then if i'm the ndp jim and i were
00:14:17.460 talking this before the show i'm sorry like i would vote non-confidence you got nothing to lose you
00:14:22.600 don't have official standing you don't have a leader you don't have a leader the liberals are
00:14:26.360 weakened right there you know as much as you want to say dropping this budget and everything happening
00:14:31.080 with auto and aluminum and everything in the world you know and tariffs they probably have an
00:14:38.060 opportunity to pick up more seats and get official standing back that's a huge thing financially for the
00:14:42.780 party it is so you know sitting there you're probably like really weighing your options now
00:14:48.060 and saying eh i think if this is a hundred billion dollar deficit budget i'm probably voting against
00:14:53.720 and you know the only one swing vote that comes is the block and it's easy to vote against a hundred
00:14:59.380 and a hundred billion dollar deficit which we're by the way hearing now that it's maybe more maybe
00:15:05.080 more and and also if you don't mind i put this out there please our sources are telling us that
00:15:11.700 elections canada is already bracing for this by this this uh next election because this non-confidence
00:15:18.360 vote over a budget is a likelihood or at least it's a potential that they're they're getting ready
00:15:23.560 yeah just in case yeah but there's no question that historically anytime a government releases a
00:15:29.300 budget there is a huge marketing and publicity oh yeah blitz on all levels of media and the public
00:15:36.340 to sell the budget to the canadian people which is interesting so this is a very interesting you know
00:15:41.480 strategically usually it happens a few weeks out so it by now you almost know everything going in
00:15:48.540 yeah yeah usually see you know they release pieces of it they're very they leak the headlines
00:15:54.040 they leak it out it's been kind of quiet yes you know and last week he was still you know the
00:15:59.000 prime minister was still uh canvassing his his cabinet asking them for projects and there was
00:16:04.940 still a lot of that kind of uh budget building going on which traditionally is done already and
00:16:11.100 they're out kind of moving to do the pr around it before they launch it so they're a little laid out
00:16:17.460 out of the gate do you think that he was waiting for good news out of the u.s like he was gonna
00:16:21.200 have a meeting well and something the only thing yeah and i agree he thought he was going to get
00:16:26.760 something when he went to the i really do think he thought that was going to be a more fulsome
00:16:31.180 developed conversation the budget i got this the only sort of budget um tease we got was just before
00:16:37.480 we started taping this basically a crime and punishment revival in canada for mark carney a promise
00:16:44.340 to hire a thousand more members of the royal canadian mounted police to change the the bail laws if you
00:16:50.660 have a serious crime which is something people across the country have been crying for
00:16:54.360 and it steals a lot of thunder away from the conservatives if he institutes this because
00:16:59.020 that's stuff they were talking about in the last election well he he does tend to uh scoop them on
00:17:03.580 some pretty obvious stuff you know crime bail reform those are easy things to scoop on but it does
00:17:09.820 leave the conservative at least probably have a position to say okay what can i complain about now
00:17:14.760 how can he vote against it because he campaigned for it exactly but he should and this is kind of you
00:17:20.820 know non-political pr but you know the conservatives should uh take the hero's walk on this one so this
00:17:27.860 is one that they should be out front saying i took the leadership role in you know putting uh the last
00:17:33.920 bill up that you knocked you know you voted against so all parties voted against their their legislation
00:17:39.160 on bail reform and he should go back out and say if i hadn't done that it would have caught wouldn't
00:17:44.860 have caused you to move faster and therefore you move faster and so it's he should you know i really
00:17:50.140 do this i actually do think there's credit there uh you know i don't know if they're taking credit
00:17:55.200 for it but they will you would hope because that is one of the moments that they actually shone on this
00:18:00.260 on this front yeah but uh as we take and i don't know nick if you can pull up the map that we have
00:18:05.460 uh it just kind of gives a a view of a country divided well you can start to see why it was important
00:18:13.840 to start to move some of these ministers around you know uh so much of their weight in ontario quebec
00:18:22.260 and the atlantic provinces could easily just slip away and and undecided or less decisive markets in
00:18:29.960 in those places they could slip away that that majority could slip away that you know and on the
00:18:35.560 west coast quite frankly he's still got some challenges right so you know you look at bc and
00:18:40.120 the soft lumber and everything going on there yes you have the energy file which you know they're
00:18:45.080 fighting tooth and nail the two provinces on you know he's going to have some challenges because
00:18:50.140 he's got to pick his side and you know and now there's a lot a lot of um when auto came up in
00:18:56.260 ontario and they started to talk about you know subsidies for the auto industry which right now i think
00:19:02.500 most people know this but you know it's it's roughly 50 billion dollars a year we do subsidize
00:19:07.920 auto in ontario or canada uh across so we do spend a lot of money to keep that industry here
00:19:14.720 um okay so we just lost it now what do we do with that money and do we continue to spend it well that's
00:19:19.860 what the soft lumber guys are saying put it into us but then the question the question that people
00:19:24.100 are asking right now is okay if we put it there where do you go with it so what happens so you can
00:19:29.720 produce more soft lumber but where's that soft lumber go and so there's a lot of discussion
00:19:33.720 everyone's kind of you know out there vying for dollars in the budget and where do we use them
00:19:38.740 and how much contingency do we put aside and he's kind of stuck right he's got to say okay i got to
00:19:43.860 keep my votes in bc so i got to put some money down to bc you know i need i need to keep the east coast
00:19:49.800 um he's got pressure to spend on nato he's got special pressure on nato and he's got ontario which
00:19:55.460 is kind of falling apart right now because ontario is kind of crumbling with you know you got steel
00:20:00.040 mills you got auto you got all the manufacturing bases crumbling they're trying to get the ring of
00:20:04.560 fire revitalized and get going as fast as possible to make up for it but it's not you know we all know
00:20:10.200 that's not a liberal a liberal initiative right so it's going to drag its heels no matter what happens
00:20:15.320 that's that's an old so that's an old guard versus new guard issue right so uh environmental
00:20:20.560 protections over uh land and indigenous rights and everything else are a huge liberal hot point
00:20:27.320 right so he's got an old cabinet sitting there right you know he's got uh uh jolie yeah yeah he's
00:20:35.960 got those people sitting there and they're saying time out buddy no way like we're that's not who we
00:20:40.420 are you know we don't go tear up lands and go mining like crazy well this is my question i mean
00:20:47.100 that's the hotbed for absolutely right now it's interesting when we were all chatting before
00:20:51.500 uh i raised the question okay so he has uh carney has a position where he has all of this trudeau
00:20:59.540 virtue signaling that's cost so much money anything from environment to uh land rights to you know
00:21:06.240 carbon tax and all that sort of stuff he's carney's got that already built into the cake
00:21:13.340 and now he's got other problems that he needs to get out of to keep his stronghold in parts of the
00:21:20.420 country that could shift otherwise yeah and uh and uh uh there's some signaling there'll be another
00:21:25.800 cabinetship yeah in a couple of weeks they're saying that so so is that is that in order to well is
00:21:31.260 that in order to kind of sure up his party so he can make some of these moves so the dissension isn't
00:21:35.860 too large right because if you leave some of the people in place and they're so against this move that
00:21:40.760 you have to make up to mining and and potentially some pipelines right you need to then you know is
00:21:46.580 that going to splinter his party when he may be going into a non-confidence vote which would mean
00:21:51.380 he'd be done at that point because you know that would hurt him on a number of fronts but think about
00:21:57.340 this gentleman so he's going to be dealing with his potential unrest in his own caucus some upset
00:22:03.400 people in the public and some very strong powerful premiers in this country that he's going to have to
00:22:09.320 be dealing with as well in dud fort and daniel smith and tim houston and david eby and they are
00:22:16.000 really strong powerful entrenched premiers who will have a lot of say beyond what that happens in
00:22:21.980 parliament hill and that's all stuff he's going to have to deal with yeah it'll be interesting to hear
00:22:26.860 your premier telling you how to vote in a federal election because you're upset with how you think the
00:22:31.300 budget is for your province right and you would have very little cause to be quiet on that because
00:22:36.240 once you hit a hundred billion dollars in excess spending that you can see is just meant to keep
00:22:41.540 everybody happy has long-term really heavy long-term effects on us as a country franco franco tersana a
00:22:49.180 few minutes ago right we're we're basically up to 50 billion in interest payments on debt so far
00:22:55.140 right so far so far you know in our based on our our total deficit and that's going to grow because
00:23:01.800 he's slating you know 60 plus billion dollars for the next four years so that's going to almost
00:23:07.100 double right and and what happens to our dollar then well yeah that's well ultimately our dollar
00:23:13.220 devalues right so our dollar devalues we print more money our bond ratings go down our interest
00:23:18.480 is intense yeah so you know and it's you know if you look at you know i always use germany as kind
00:23:24.460 of an example of someone who's a little further ahead of us on the scale of diminishment then you know
00:23:29.360 you really see the devaluation the unemployment uh unfortunately and then you have to get more
00:23:35.940 uh government-backed projects you know that's why right now that country is for you know a lot of
00:23:41.440 what they do is arms and defense because quite frankly they need to create those projects yeah
00:23:46.200 you have to create those jobs and and that becomes i know for selfish reasons as a parent with two
00:23:51.740 daughters in their early mid-20s the one thing i'm looking at this upcoming election
00:23:55.460 youth unemployment because our family's dealing with it right now yeah and there's a lot of young
00:24:00.720 well-educated well-trained people who can't find a job in this country and even if they weren't trained
00:24:06.460 well uh certainly in ontario we let a huge amount of training uh capital and funding just vaporize
00:24:14.220 so even if there was hope for them to be retrained into something we've lost auto it's okay nobody's
00:24:19.740 training into that community colleges have been slashed there's absolutely no way that we have
00:24:25.280 the right number of people trained to build the infrastructure that is the housing that we need
00:24:29.960 and these ports and building these ships and stuff like that it kind of leaves carny in spending money
00:24:37.200 that goes out of our country into other places for expertise for resources for things that we could
00:24:42.960 be supplying ourselves now that if there's an election in november that's going to be rung hard
00:24:49.400 in front of his face because you can't spend a hundred i'm hearing 150 billion a hundred billion
00:24:55.420 dollars of new deficit money to rebuild a country that will take 10 or 15 years to realize on these
00:25:01.440 projects and still look like a good guy at the end of the day well that's where his back's up against
00:25:06.220 the wall right you know so jim brought up housing you know and ontario was one of them
00:25:10.520 they came out the other day and they said they're i think 500 000 skilled trades short of even coming
00:25:16.840 close to meeting their goal of housing housing so yeah they don't they're not even it's not even
00:25:22.720 attainable at this point so again you got to move your you're moving your people around because you're
00:25:27.520 trying to shore up your base but that's tough because you know you have people like you know
00:25:31.740 you're talking about your kids and your family you have people that are saying well hey what are we
00:25:35.620 going to do with them where are they going to live where are they going to work you know those are the
00:25:39.200 challenges you have right now and and you're trying to shore up political zones to get people
00:25:43.980 to tell them something's coming but you're going to have to spend your way out of it and you can
00:25:48.820 spend your way so to your point about you know economies you can spend your way out of it because
00:25:53.780 that's pretty much where you're at right now you've got to spend your way up the challenge is you have
00:25:58.460 to do gdp positive growth projects which is a pipeline which is a pipeline so whatever you're producing
00:26:06.680 you're a bang on so you use a pipeline as an example whatever's coming out of that pipeline
00:26:10.220 needs to be sold for revenue got it right so it has to have it but it can't be sold to yourself so
00:26:15.300 you can't do internal projects where you're just right you know uh affordable housing so you need a
00:26:21.240 tanker going to germany or a tanker going to japan it has to be going somewhere right so it has to be
00:26:25.960 it has to be helping your gdp and so quite frankly if if you set down and you create projects to create
00:26:31.800 those goals now that has a whole bunch of other issues that canadians are going to face which
00:26:36.340 you know we talked about earlier in another show but that means uh people will have to migrate more
00:26:42.580 in canada which is like you're talking about your kids you know my kids the day of like kids growing
00:26:47.540 up and staying with you in toronto or you know when they're getting a job and you know you having
00:26:52.680 thanksgiving and they drive over to your house in your house probably is going to go the way of the
00:26:56.900 buy-bye right so a lot of the people that are working or need work right now will probably have
00:27:01.660 to go north they'll have to work up in camps and mining camps they'll have to go west it might be
00:27:06.720 shift uh one week on one week off exactly yeah like we do with oil rigging or other sort of resource
00:27:12.960 mining being so resource heavy we're gonna have to create that right and that's you know again backs
00:27:18.540 him into the whole issue of environmental projects and everything else but we're getting to the point
00:27:23.000 where that decision like it's narrowing right so that decision is narrowing upon him that he he has
00:27:28.400 to make that call can he make that call with the existing cabinet that's well that that's i would
00:27:33.780 have to think there's a lot of private intense meetings going on oh yeah from carney and his most
00:27:39.780 trusted lieutenants sitting down with the trudeau holdovers and saying exactly what you said paul the
00:27:45.800 only way we get out of this we have to do this this and this i know it's not the way we did things but
00:27:50.540 we'll never get out of it but he does have that crowd there jim saying no no we've already committed
00:27:54.380 to this and this and this do that and we're not going so i do think you're right his his backup
00:27:59.720 is up against the wall uh with canadians in general first of all his uh ratings are slipping
00:28:05.240 okay still ahead of polyeth though i will yeah yeah yeah but he he does seem to be having this
00:28:10.880 the sheen is off of yes i agree off the job and i think some of uh some of his travel has led to
00:28:16.960 nothing uh we we are we're looking a little foolish i think on the international scene to
00:28:22.620 be honest with you yeah don't you know egypt and you know they're calling him the wrong name in
00:28:26.740 egypt and referring to him as the president of canada you know all that stuff i get that trump did
00:28:31.260 that yeah as well well i mean he i think he wasn't as he's entering 80 i feel like sometimes i call the
00:28:37.980 the cat and the dog in our house the wrong mr president yeah you know like it's all the cat mr
00:28:43.060 president now trump yeah exactly and so now trump is acting like a guy about to turn 80 calling
00:28:48.060 someone are you the president or you know what i like what he said he goes oh yeah i did that i'm
00:28:51.700 sorry about that at least i didn't call you governor huh and he just moved away he just kept going he
00:28:55.960 laughed yeah yeah it was funny he just bounces it doesn't nothing bothers him but you know the
00:29:02.360 interesting you know part of that whole equation is he's uh carney's got to make a move and figure
00:29:08.620 all this out relatively quickly so you took look at the timeline so there's the wild part of this
00:29:13.380 right because we're going into the budget because we have a non-confinance company he's got a shuffle
00:29:18.360 coming up so he's he's i think he hoped when he went to the u.s he was coming out with a deal because
00:29:24.400 something to show canadians and show his caucus so let's be serious to insert in the budget yes yeah
00:29:29.880 solantis doesn't just show up the other day and close the plan right exactly so he knows about it two
00:29:36.060 three weeks in advance so you know he's going to the u.s he's sitting down with him and he's hoping
00:29:41.560 something's coming because he needs it right then he comes back he didn't get it then he goes to
00:29:47.100 egypt he doesn't want to go to you who want you know egypt's nice place but i'm sure he wasn't like
00:29:51.400 that wasn't on his list i'm not a flight well the armed forces wasn't even ready for it they had they
00:29:55.400 didn't have a plane ready like it came out of commercial he didn't even allow any reporters to join
00:30:01.980 him and got in trouble for that he took flair no no but so so he drives you know he flies over
00:30:07.300 drives over he flies over because quite frankly he needs another conversation yeah anything that
00:30:12.840 like he's not going he needs face time yeah he's using anything to get face time to say hey by the
00:30:17.500 way you know we didn't talk about we're going to build that pipeline all the way down to texas and
00:30:21.660 ford ford's calling or uh trump's calling him the wrong yeah yeah can i like go away you know and
00:30:27.280 and he's like they're leaving him out of photo shoots well he was stuck in the back there with
00:30:31.640 his arms folded while they were signing all the documentation yeah well and again i don't think
00:30:36.600 he's there for that you know he might be there partially for that but quite frankly he's there
00:30:40.240 to have another conversation because he's getting what's coming right and it's a it's such a narrow
00:30:44.840 like if you think about the timeline now november 4th is just around the corner then we're into
00:30:50.760 winter yeah we're into more heating costs and potential climate issues what if there's a
00:30:56.800 massive storm somewhere that that cripples part of the country that's unforeseen you can't plan
00:31:01.660 for that exactly so he's trying to get all this knocked down before and it's not coming it's not
00:31:07.260 sequencing properly right you know so they're you know but and hence that's why all these political
00:31:13.940 shuffles so he can hopefully sure up because he's contingency planning maybe it's not going to go the
00:31:20.280 way he wants so he delivers the budget and then you anticipate more uh ministerial shuffle or do we
00:31:29.260 see that i that's a great question is it before or after yeah before you think there will be the
00:31:34.800 dominance will fall before i think he'll do it before yeah right because the fallout of uh you know
00:31:40.680 again i think the convert you know it's always there are they're having that conversation now
00:31:45.320 and he's trying to figure out potentially if he drops a certain type of budget who stays with him
00:31:52.480 oh who yeah who comes up against it yeah who are you going to stay with me i think that's that
00:31:57.420 conversation happening now i i'm going this way because i have to go this way and he needs ministers
00:32:02.220 and mps out there selling it hard exactly so if they're not going to if they can't get behind it he
00:32:07.700 doesn't need a lot of people just to walk away the worst thing could happen for him right now he
00:32:11.760 strategically moves some people around he goes to drop the budget and they're like i don't like
00:32:16.240 this budget a couple of people are left over going i don't know and they're not selling it no they're
00:32:20.180 not selling they just go back to their writings and sit quietly right in the whisper campaign right
00:32:25.260 yeah you know the opposition here here's uh tales of unrest and they talk to their friends
00:32:31.120 reporters and columnists and drop a little hints here and there exactly and then that non-confidence
00:32:36.460 bubble that we talked about starts to bubble up and quite frankly and the the the writings where
00:32:42.880 it could go either way start to really shift well look how many seats in the last election were
00:32:47.800 a coin toss really yeah a hundred seats either way yeah yeah multiple dozens of seats were like that
00:32:54.420 it makes me wonder if uh we deliver this he delivers a budget we receive it as canadians
00:33:00.400 he's made the the the shift all of this looks like we've got a bright brand new government we've
00:33:06.380 shifted all of our people into the right place and now we've got a budget that we they can work with
00:33:10.480 right that seems to be what the image will be if they can get aboard and then on the other side you
00:33:16.420 have you know you see the conservatives have now started a couple days ago with nothing's happened
00:33:21.680 they're starting their campaign to get ready for the budget so they're they're out already you know he's
00:33:26.440 doing the interviews the videos where he's saying you know he's been in power nothing's happened we
00:33:31.040 haven't dropped it's been ineffective we've done tours haven't signed deals so they're going to start
00:33:35.360 that ramping up that messaging even harder uh we never go back has said some things too yeah they've
00:33:41.280 been i'm shocked that the block has come out as early as they have now and actually now i know
00:33:46.680 again they're trying to get things in the budget so they're negotiating i get that but they've been
00:33:50.560 quite strong with their yeah criticism i was i was a little shocked with some of the the rhetoric
00:33:55.680 that yeah which yeah i didn't think they would we don't we don't go backward ever so now the largest
00:34:03.160 budget in the history of canada does it ever reduce from this point on well it didn't okay so we talked
00:34:11.080 about that before you remember uh you know i was i was we were talking about the mid 90s okay yeah that's
00:34:17.480 yeah i was just telling the story about how slow it was right right we were you know we were at a
00:34:22.720 150 billion dollar deficit and things were really slow things got to the point where you go to work
00:34:30.420 and it was painful because it was so unproductive and so little to do everyone was just kind of
00:34:35.600 hanging on waiting for you know the shoe to drop and it really did feel that way for a few years it
00:34:41.480 did you're right there was there was a lot of just trotting along yeah waiting and then all of a sudden
00:34:46.700 you know there was a like mass restructuring government paul martin you know those days came
00:34:51.760 in restructured everything got things back on the rails went down to a 10 billion dollar deficit and
00:34:57.460 what period of time paul was that three years three years three years okay it was a three year i looked
00:35:01.700 at it this morning with okay so let's let's say let's there's a unicorn in the house of commons
00:35:07.140 working with paul martin or mark carney um is it possible to get from the budget we're about to get
00:35:13.160 to three years like they did in the 90s it is but remember there was like you know and i probably get
00:35:18.700 the number wrong but it was you know close to a hundred thousand uh people laid off and government
00:35:23.540 like it was a huge massive restructuring but would this current government yeah get rid of that many
00:35:30.200 civil servants no they're actually looking to increase cra by a huge amount that's one of the
00:35:34.760 things you can't get anybody in the full well he's bounced around a little right chase people for the
00:35:38.900 money bail yeah the prime ministers bounced around a little you know originally he said yes he was
00:35:43.640 going to do a major structuring then he went to just uh you know he was going to give packages and
00:35:48.280 slowly wind people out i'm not sure where they're going again that i think that's part of the uh
00:35:55.000 conversation he's having within his own cabinet and caucus he's trying to figure out where are they
00:36:01.100 going to get the money where they're going to get the money and and what can i cut well and also
00:36:05.320 who's potentially at risk you remember these are massive unions oh yeah right so powerful yeah
00:36:11.640 these are powerful unions they go up against so like you know we tell the paul martin story but
00:36:16.500 they have consequences right so as soon as you do those things you know you kind of last for a while
00:36:21.600 but eventually it comes to bite you right because they they're they're mad right and they shift the
00:36:26.560 vote of their union members yeah they're they're large blocks jack layton rose and rose on the heels
00:36:32.720 that did they yeah i remember remember the whole where that all came to be and so you know that's
00:36:37.320 the power shift that happened so you know that's the you know the joy of politics is what he's in
00:36:42.560 the middle of you know your back is going against the wall and your next move it could be your last
00:36:47.480 it just feels to me maybe i don't understand this properly but it feels to me that he's going to try
00:36:52.840 to spend his way out uh based on trying to keep everything in place that the trudeau government
00:36:58.460 uh put into place which was in some cases bloated spending and programs that don't necessarily make
00:37:05.320 sense depending on who you are you might have a different opinion but he's got all of that
00:37:09.060 commitment that trudeau just basically on the way out the door everybody hates me anyway i'm gonna and
00:37:15.300 and it just seemed to me like all of these programs fat cat programs got fatter he's got that to deal
00:37:20.920 with he's got to contend with canadians who can't get homes get can't get health care uh are having a
00:37:26.160 hard time getting their kids employed with trump got to do yeah he that's right he's got all of
00:37:31.100 these variables playing against him now uh that almost leads me to think the only thing he can do
00:37:38.480 is spend his way out at our expense yeah you will try again spend your way out but you know how he
00:37:45.340 spends his way out and how he gets growth out of spending his way out is the key and my i don't doubt
00:37:51.180 that he will like i really i think pretty much a hundred percent the the deficit's going to go up
00:37:56.320 they are going to try and they're going to try to hop it the key now it's like trump you know this is
00:38:01.460 an interesting discussion because you know he thinks terrorists bringing manufacturing home will do him
00:38:07.340 well he'll get people to go back into factories i said from day one i don't think that has a shot
00:38:13.600 at all obby totally i've said that on a number of shows i think i lived in the u.s for for quite some
00:38:20.740 time i think getting americans and kids of young kids from you know a few past generations to come
00:38:27.260 and go back into the manufacturing lines of america is is highly unlikely it's tough work it's not for
00:38:34.740 everybody paul no it well and it's hard on the mind it's hard on the soul and i think kids today have
00:38:39.540 a little more holistic uh you know organic view of life quite frankly the way they want to live it
00:38:44.880 you can't be on your phone while you're trying to weld a car's engine together you can but you might
00:38:49.680 take your colleague's eye out yeah yeah so i you know so now those are not desirable jobs to the
00:38:54.940 kids we've raised in this country no yeah so now we have a little bit of the same issue as you think
00:38:59.580 about it because now in order for us to spend our way out of it with projects that have gdp growth
00:39:04.900 we'd have to create jobs that produce something so jobs that produce something tend to be manual
00:39:10.220 so whether you're going to mining or whether you're going to a pipeline or whether you're
00:39:14.600 you know you can do ai and you can have it and all those things they're all great but you know a lot
00:39:19.980 of them quite frankly we've hit the bubble of that you know i think the tech that we still have ai
00:39:26.180 and everything and that'll reduce labor and there'll be some work in that structure
00:39:30.580 and and that industry but a lot of what we need to do in canada will pretty much be hard manual labor
00:39:38.660 that people will have to go do so then they'll have to move they'll have to relocate or go to a town
00:39:46.940 work for a few weeks and come back and the challenge will be are canadians ready to put that because you
00:39:53.540 know back in i don't know in the mid 90s if you guys remember it i remember working pretty damn hard
00:40:01.260 same so like as a as a young man i remember quite frankly you know my days were damn long
00:40:08.140 i worked really hard and my employer worked me really really hard and because he didn't have a
00:40:14.340 choice no and i i didn't i didn't i know i didn't know no no they're all in the same boat yeah if you
00:40:20.020 said no you're the next person was ready to take gladly do it yeah so there wasn't a lot of options
00:40:26.040 and so we're kind of getting into that spot again where uh but why are we in that spot we're one of
00:40:31.680 the most resource resource rich countries on earth take a look at other resource rich countries are
00:40:37.720 they worried about their labor force having to become part of their economy norway isn't no look
00:40:43.260 i mean but that's a cultural shift right they were they they embraced their they embraced their
00:40:49.220 resource rich uh environment and they they created a work ethic of people who enjoyed and took pride in
00:40:57.500 doing it and norway now is set up with different levels of society from being an infant to a senior
00:41:03.080 citizen you're taking care of yeah well that's because of the work ethic the way they were able to
00:41:07.520 structure themselves and we didn't right we kind of you know we had low birth rates we had you know
00:41:13.600 medium unemployment we tried to do tech crisis we had poor immigration policies we we did it we
00:41:20.240 thumped it pretty hard on the you know doing a lot of really wrong things for a while and quite frankly
00:41:25.560 that came back you know to bite us and so now the shift is where we're gonna have to but same as the
00:41:32.520 us we're gonna have in order to get those gdp growth projects we're gonna have to convince people
00:41:37.560 to take these kind of jobs and that it's worth doing and that's the only option some of those jobs
00:41:43.840 are well worth it though oh absolutely but oh yeah gentlemen paul you just nail it we'll have to convince
00:41:48.160 people that what we heard the last 10 12 years we're gonna have to put that aside for now for the
00:41:53.960 good of the country we're gonna have to build the pipeline and do this and do that and things that
00:42:00.360 we were told were not good now they're going to be have to be good otherwise we won't have the money
00:42:05.200 in the gdp to pay down and pay for everything and and the people that are going to do it have to
00:42:11.720 we have to tell them that it's there's no option they have to go do it so that's you know and that's
00:42:17.500 the challenging part you know because we for a while there on our education we brought everyone in
00:42:23.340 we educated everyone you know we free education is our culture so we pretty much the people who lived
00:42:29.300 here got very low cost education people came in paid a lot of money but they paid it because they
00:42:34.220 wanted to immigrate here right but we we've done a good job at educating people now we have to say
00:42:38.920 to them okay you need to roll up your sleeves and go you know you got a decade of really hard labor
00:42:43.420 before you maybe get to the promised land and do the trade you wanted although i will say as a parent
00:42:48.080 who had two kids at university that's not free yeah right but now you know they went through
00:42:53.340 the you know but also are they prepared to go get work on the line for the next 10 years of their
00:42:57.660 life none of them one of them studied anything remotely like that we don't we don't need them
00:43:02.140 to study we just need them to show up we'll train them but we need them to be here eight hours a day
00:43:07.120 on this line pulling this resource it's a tough ass for a lot of canadian young people but it's a
00:43:12.560 generational shift you know and i tell this story all the time my dad had a cartage company right so
00:43:18.240 and basically so we moved furniture right so when i go went to go to university being a you know a new
00:43:26.520 immigrant to canada his first thing he thought it was insane that i want to go to university
00:43:31.060 so he did everything he could to get me not to go to school because why wouldn't you do what i did
00:43:37.200 well he wanted to buy another truck right and he wanted another truck on the road making money all
00:43:41.000 day so he wanted me working in the business making money last thing he wanted to do is subsidize a kid
00:43:46.140 to go to university because he didn't see any value in it yeah so now the shift is so that you know i had
00:43:52.340 to come we were over as our generation we were overcoming that right we were kind of like people
00:43:56.880 who are kind of hot and cold on education yeah if you want to go go but you know for the most part
00:44:02.240 you know get a job so now we're going to have to reverse some of that thinking and that's going to
00:44:06.180 be like the u.s that's some of the challenges we're going to encounter a university education is amazing
00:44:11.000 but it's funny how many uh the just a percentage of my own children that got a university education and
00:44:17.400 they'd had to go for more practical training from the college system yeah you know so it's we made
00:44:22.440 it a two-tier program for these kids let me ask you guys as we wrap here um first of all do you think
00:44:30.500 the budget is more or is 100 billion or more more more more i'm i'm up around but if you add in defense
00:44:39.160 i think you're probably closer to depending on whether we do the golden dome or whether we just go on our
00:44:44.280 own you're somewhere between 125 and 150 billion second question does carney clean up his uh his
00:44:51.040 cabinet to back this and promote it properly does it get it done in time and do do you think the public
00:44:57.780 receives it uh well based on his shuffle he will do it because he has to do it and i don't think it
00:45:04.260 will be perceived well initially and they'll have to use everything in their power to sell it so it is
00:45:09.780 perceived well yeah no i don't think he'll clean it up in time i don't think you can get the old guard
00:45:15.160 out so i'm a little different but yeah i think he's going to struggle he's had he's had timeline
00:45:20.260 issues from day one he set goals one of the challenges i think he's finding in government
00:45:25.080 similar to a lot of people who have their first term in government who come from the business sector
00:45:30.240 in the business sector you send your business plan you know it's up to you you get up every morning
00:45:34.600 and you march as fast as you can because you have resources to do it in government there's so many
00:45:39.060 factions resisting against you and i think that's kind of the challenge he's having right now he's
00:45:43.480 has all these factions around him he's trying to figure out where they stand in politics it's hard
00:45:48.500 to figure out where anyone stands so true therefore struggling a little think about his background
00:45:53.400 goldman sachs brookfield management the bank of england the bank of canada he got things done and had
00:45:59.340 people and he would say this has got to be done this day and things happen yes sir how fast
00:46:03.480 right yeah and he had a whole team of people now he's dragging santa's sled behind with
00:46:08.660 reluctant premiers and the privy council and this and that who does it sound like
00:46:13.800 trump in his first term right remember yeah he had to drag a lot of people around he didn't
00:46:19.060 understand he went to he went to washington and he just didn't understand and everything's slow
00:46:24.940 and there's all these layers and you don't know who's zooming who and why and right yeah and he's
00:46:30.960 going through that right he's been there like he spent time with trudeau but it's one thing to be
00:46:36.060 behind the scenes it's another thing to be in charge and then in ottawa all of a sudden there's
00:46:40.740 a coffee shop or a place where they you know a little dive bar and there's a disgruntled member of
00:46:46.180 the liberal caucus siloing up to a reporter telling some gold while they have a coffee or a drink and
00:46:51.680 letting them know because they're not happy but they'll be more than happy to tell you or you or what's
00:46:55.600 not not going on right it's so funny i i was at a an event on the weekend and uh former privy council
00:47:02.180 uh deb schultz for the liberal party was there brilliant woman actually uh one of the greatest
00:47:07.020 uh in in in my life uh in politics and just part of the community uh one of the good ones but it was
00:47:13.740 interesting because i said to her as we're doing what we're doing i go in with a very distinct opinion
00:47:19.640 i'm going to be angry at mark carney today about this and i'm going to be mad at pierre paliev about
00:47:25.040 that and her response was but the more you ask the more you see these layers the slippery layers and
00:47:33.260 the slimy layers you have to get through yes and that picture is a lot for somebody to deal with i think
00:47:39.220 who comes from the business community and had things done when he asked when he mark carney needed
00:47:43.660 something done it got done and it was like that his whole business career because he was the prime
00:47:48.680 minister and i want an apple bring it to my office immediately how long eight months right it'll
00:47:54.580 have to be a pair oh my god yeah seriously paul you make a good point this is a real uh life
00:48:02.100 adjustment form as someone who spent the last 35 years working one way and now things are done
00:48:07.280 completely different oh yeah within government look at look at you know on the on the u.s front right
00:48:12.340 how many timelines and you know and i i listen i sympathize because i can only imagine
00:48:16.920 because if i tried to do the same thing i i think i'd be totally frustrated but you know he went to
00:48:23.740 the u.s he thought he had a deal four or five times right and he left yeah and you know now he's
00:48:29.240 dealing with a guy who quite frankly is in his second term he's wheeled many deals on the political
00:48:34.640 side now yeah probably seen the you know he's seen the inside of washington he's still he's no in no
00:48:40.660 hurry he's gonna just move him around one last question do we have an election in november what do you
00:48:45.340 think no 50 50 i think it's 50 50 50 right now i wasn't i was probably 80 20 uh i think as we're
00:48:54.520 seeing things unfold i'm getting to the 50 50 yeah it seems like there's flipping a coin on this one
00:48:59.480 now it feels like enough i'm sure a lot of people not will agree with you both well apparently
00:49:03.720 elections canada is looking into it so uh doing what they have to do guys thank you for the discussion
00:49:08.660 on this i really appreciate it uh don't forget subscribe like make comments we love your comments
00:49:14.340 even the nasty ones they're fine and uh we would love to uh get you in on the discussion with us
00:49:19.460 visit tplmedia.ca for all the content to subscribe to support the show you can do that on all the
00:49:25.980 platforms thanks we'll see you next time see you
00:49:27.900 you