True Patriot Love - Carney’s EV “Mandate” Flip CUSMA - Part 2

00:00:00.000 Well, Thursday morning, Prime Minister Mark Carney had an announcement in Ontario speaking

00:00:08.940 to the media, speaking to workers, speaking to the nation about the auto industry and

00:00:13.340 electric vehicles.

00:00:14.440 And some people like what he said, and some people don't.

00:00:17.440 As always, thrilled to be joined by Paul Micucci from True Patriot Love Media.

00:00:20.280 Paul, how are you?

00:00:20.940 Good, Jim.

00:00:21.520 Yeah, interesting.

00:00:22.520 You know, we're getting ready for the show, and we're just going to talk about Kuzma,

00:00:26.100 which is pretty simple, quite frankly, and just get up to speed before, you know, that

00:00:30.020 July deadline.

00:00:31.680 And boom, pops on the screen.

00:00:33.900 You know, our Prime Minister is talking about auto.

00:00:37.220 So Brian Platt from Bloomberg News had an interesting quote on social media.

00:00:41.400 Confirm, the hated EV mandate is out, replacing it with a fuel efficiency credit system.

00:00:48.380 Huge win for automakers who lobbied hard for this flexibility under the shadow of U.S. tariffs.

00:00:54.740 Well, it's interesting.

00:00:55.860 And Pierre Polyev, the real Pierre Polyev, said, common sense prevails.

00:01:01.020 Mark Carney finally admits that the conservative plan to scrap the punitive EV mandate was right

00:01:07.040 all along.

00:01:07.940 But Canadians won't forget this original flip-flop.

00:01:10.660 We love lower taxes, not more targeted subsidies.

00:01:14.600 And interesting, and one more, Jim, I wanted to go through.

00:01:17.720 Auto expert, this is what, don't be fooled by the 75% target.

00:01:22.280 It's still a mandate by any other name.

00:01:24.560 If the infrastructure isn't there, these efficiency credits will just become a hidden tax on gas

00:01:31.120 vehicles.

00:01:31.560 Yeah, and then just a quick quote, I'll paraphrase what Doug Ford had to say.

00:01:36.680 We're on the same page for Team Canada.

00:01:39.120 If you want to sell cars here, you have to build them here.

00:01:42.160 Protecting our auto workers Ontario is my number one priority.

00:01:44.940 So Ford's conceding that, look, if whatever, out of what car it is, if you build it in Ontario,

00:01:50.900 he's like, as long as the jobs are here and the money staying in the province and going

00:01:56.040 to tax and everything, infrastructure, then he's fine with it.

00:01:59.480 And in the auto industry, we looked it up.

00:02:02.940 They started building cars in Canada in 1904.

00:02:06.160 It's been a big part of our history.

00:02:08.300 Oh, yeah.

00:02:08.480 For the majority part of our history, building vehicles, cars and trucks and minivans in

00:02:13.420 this country, especially in Ontario, which is the center of it.

00:02:16.980 Oh, yeah.

00:02:17.360 We will.

00:02:18.040 And, you know, through the bad times, we've actually put about $2 billion in subsidies

00:02:21.920 into the industry to keep it alive in Ontario.

00:02:24.440 Yeah.

00:02:24.880 You know, when recessions hit, we stepped in.

00:02:27.860 We kept basically GM alive.

00:02:31.000 Absolutely.

00:02:31.740 You know, definitely by the loans and grants that we gave to the company to keep them here

00:02:36.280 and keep them functional.

00:02:37.820 I kind of feel that this announcement by Carney in the direction, Paul, is a tweaking, an adjustment

00:02:46.280 of the auto industry in the country that maybe the kinds of vehicles, the way they're built,

00:02:52.360 the auto industry, how it functions, is evolving with the changing economy and the changing

00:02:58.220 geopolitical issues we're dealing with, especially south of the border.

00:03:01.960 Yeah.

00:03:02.420 Oh, no, I think it is.

00:03:03.500 But, you know, it's interesting.

00:03:04.380 So, you know, he's always and, you know, Doug Ford, you know, you're just on Doug Ford

00:03:09.460 a minute.

00:03:10.080 Their conversations, you know, they've been back and forth.

00:03:12.880 We've doubled down on EV cars.

00:03:15.000 Absolutely.

00:03:15.280 We said this on previous shows, like, you know, we basically, whether it be new nuclear

00:03:20.620 plants, maybe it'd be hydro, whether the battery plants up by Windsor and London and

00:03:27.340 all up there, we've really doubled down on it.

00:03:29.600 So when all this was happening and the Trump tariffs and the kerfuffle with Kuzma and everything

00:03:36.100 was happening, I'm sure there was a lot of sweating going on, right?

00:03:38.940 Because it looked like, quite frankly, with no backup and the big three automakers kind

00:03:45.080 of on the way out, it was going to mean some terrible times for Ontario.

00:03:50.240 So it's interesting.

00:03:51.620 Let's go in for a minute.

00:03:52.580 So we just got this.

00:03:54.220 So I just wanted to walk through before we start the show.

00:03:56.380 So, you know, he called it pillars.

00:03:58.900 So on the show, which I love pillars, we have nine pillars for true patriot love, true patriot

00:04:04.720 love, you know, is, is based on pillars.

00:04:06.620 So his nine pillars for his new auto strategy, the first one to accelerate investment in Canada's

00:04:12.680 auto sector, the Canada's government will allocate 3 billion from the strategic response fund.

00:04:19.620 So in the budget, we did the budget show.

00:04:21.900 There's a huge budget set aside for, for just these types of issues.

00:04:26.480 And he's going to basically allocate 3 billion.

00:04:29.220 Now, I don't know what that's for.

00:04:30.560 He didn't really spell it out.

00:04:32.080 I guess they're going to put a sub-

00:04:33.280 Retooling and stuff?

00:04:34.480 That's what I guess.

00:04:35.620 Yeah.

00:04:35.940 They're going to put a subcommittee together.

00:04:37.480 I think in the Q&A, they were talking about a committee that was going to figure out how

00:04:41.640 to allocate the monies.

00:04:43.720 If they're going to go to EVs and retool their plants or bring new plants in, I assume they're

00:04:50.880 going to need to build those plants or they're going to need to retool those plants. 1.00

00:04:53.560 Tax breaks and whatnot, right?

00:04:55.100 Yeah.

00:04:55.380 Yeah.

00:04:55.780 Well, this is funding.

00:04:58.480 So tax breaks are on top of it.

00:05:00.200 There's a lot of, he did mention that inside the budget, there's a lot of basically tax

00:05:07.400 breaks that make the effective tax rate on capital investment only about 13%.

00:05:14.120 So he's dropped, I think he said 4% less than the US, making it worth people's money or

00:05:22.320 companies' monies to make capital expenditures in Canada.

00:05:26.740 So you can directly expense it.

00:05:28.100 The tax rates dropped.

00:05:30.320 So those are all good things.

00:05:32.280 And that's the product super deduction, which will reduce the tax burden of those companies.

00:05:39.900 So, and then a hundred million from the regional tariff response initiative.

00:05:43.600 So there's a lot of capital put on the table here.

00:05:46.020 Absolutely.

00:05:46.620 How it gets spent and how it gets retooled, you know, and who it goes to.

00:05:50.460 And there was questions after whether it went to China, whether it had Chinese companies

00:05:55.300 coming in, which, you know, the, the, uh, energy initiative, there was interesting yesterday.

00:06:00.860 I don't know if you watched the energy minister on TV at CBC yesterday, but they were asking

00:06:05.500 him several questions about the pipelines and Chinese companies coming in and actually investing

00:06:10.740 and building the pipelines.

00:06:12.180 And he, and he was very elusive.

00:06:13.980 He basically said, you know, if it, if it works with the Canada act, we're up for it,

00:06:17.940 right?

00:06:18.180 If, if the Canada act allows it, we're up for it.

00:06:21.120 So, you know, if you look at this, you know, this business, the auto automotive business,

00:06:26.100 the Chinese are the leaders by far, right?

00:06:30.580 So, and they make them cheaper.

00:06:32.380 They make them Chinese electric cars in Canada would cost approximately 35,000.

00:06:37.240 Exactly.

00:06:37.820 But they make the, the, they more than double the number of cars sold around the world from

00:06:43.100 the U S so the U S sells roughly 13 million a year.

00:06:46.740 The Chinese sell 31 million cars a year around the world.

00:06:51.500 That's a big number, Paul, right?

00:06:52.980 Oh, it's huge number.

00:06:54.060 It's huge number because we put in perspective, Canada buys.

00:06:58.440 So our cars sold new cars sold on an annual basis is slightly less than 2 million, 1.9

00:07:03.400 million.

00:07:03.780 Yeah.

00:07:04.120 So let's say for just our today, 2 million, right?

00:07:07.860 So, you know, it's six times bigger in the U S you know, and 15 times bigger in China and

00:07:14.640 it's a trillion dollar business in China and it's, you know, it's cars.

00:07:18.240 I was taking a look last night, getting ready for the show.

00:07:20.720 The number, number one sales, uh, group in China or one of the number one sales, it was

00:07:25.400 a group called cherry.

00:07:26.600 So cherry cars, uh, SAIC, uh, Chen gang, GD great wall motor, BYD Tesla, China, and GAC.

00:07:38.780 So those are kind of the top.

00:07:40.800 So, so those are the cars that they see.

00:07:42.540 And when they produce them, they're rolling them around the world at a low cost target.

00:07:47.940 And right now with the, the economy and people strapped for hard currency, if you can get

00:07:53.840 electric vehicle at a cheaper price than a Tesla or anything else, well, I mean, it's

00:07:59.400 too, it's too appetizing to buy it.

00:08:02.040 If you're going to sell 20, save 20, 25,000 to buy the Chinese one, eventually you're like,

00:08:07.100 well, okay, I'll buy that one.

00:08:08.960 Oh yeah.

00:08:09.460 Yeah.

00:08:09.600 We remember you and I are old enough to remember the hue and cry with Japanese cars coming to 1.00

00:08:14.520 North America.

00:08:15.420 Oh yeah.

00:08:15.900 And Honda and Toyota, and they were cheaper in that.

00:08:18.480 And eventually people started buying them a big numbers because they were more affordable,

00:08:22.640 dependable and cheaper.

00:08:23.820 Yeah.

00:08:24.280 Yeah.

00:08:24.480 Big time.

00:08:25.320 You know, it's interesting.

00:08:26.220 So pillar two.

00:08:27.060 So Jim, and it comes to, to rationalize emissions reduction policies, to focus on outcomes that matter

00:08:33.900 to Canadians.

00:08:34.560 It's the Canadian, Canada's government, new government will introduce stronger greenhouse

00:08:39.860 gas emission standards that put Canada on the path to achieve a goal of 75% EV sales

00:08:46.920 by 2035.

00:08:49.500 That's not that far away.

00:08:50.840 No, it's not.

00:08:51.560 And 90% EV sales by 2040.

00:08:53.960 So what they're saying, you know, reading between the lines here is they're saying we're going

00:08:59.320 to be given some greenhouse gas emission standards and those are going to actually influence us

00:09:05.100 to switch over to EV cars.

00:09:06.880 So it's, you know, that comment that I read at the beginning, that's what he's saying,

00:09:11.160 right?

00:09:11.340 He's basically saying it might not be a mandate, but it is a reverse mandate.

00:09:15.760 So, you know, the old days, you remember it.

00:09:17.880 We're not telling you, but we're telling you.

00:09:20.640 Remember, we used to go to our mechanic and he used to hook up that hose.

00:09:24.060 Yeah.

00:09:24.240 And you used to think, oh, I hope I pass.

00:09:26.320 Otherwise, I don't know, Paul.

00:09:28.280 They used to come out and go, oh, we have to test again.

00:09:31.440 You just go, oh my God.

00:09:32.340 Here's some more money.

00:09:33.580 Yeah, exactly.

00:09:35.020 But it looks like we're kind of going to be back down that path again, where we're going

00:09:38.400 to go for admissions testings on our vehicles.

00:09:41.760 So three, to strengthen domestic demand by making EVs more affordable and reliable for

00:09:48.020 Canadians, Canada's new government, I hate when he says that, will launch a five-year

00:09:53.040 EV affordability program?

00:09:56.140 Hmm.

00:09:56.680 So this is the one where they're going to give rebates.

00:10:00.120 So they're going to basically put $2.3 billion to provide rebates or incentives up to $5,000

00:10:10.220 for battery, electric, and fuel EVs, and up to $2,500 for plug-in hybrids with a final

00:10:20.260 transaction value of up to $50,000 on cars made by countries Canada has free trade agreements

00:10:27.680 with.

00:10:28.320 Okay.

00:10:28.620 So just to go back to your one pillar.

00:10:30.680 That's a load.

00:10:31.640 That's a load.

00:10:32.200 So the rebates, they hope will get us to the 75% of EV sales, right?

00:10:38.240 They're hoping that with the rebates and all that.

00:10:41.100 Well, no, I think it's a little different.

00:10:42.980 I think they're thinking, with the admissions testing, they're going to force us to EVs.

00:10:49.960 But I just want to point out, you're saying 75%.

00:10:52.940 I just double-checked it.

00:10:55.040 15% of cars in Canada in 2024 were EVs.

00:11:00.080 15%.

00:11:00.880 Yeah.

00:11:01.520 And we want to go to 75%.

00:11:03.540 Yeah, yeah.

00:11:04.080 It's a big jump.

00:11:05.000 It's a huge jump.

00:11:05.820 Huge jump.

00:11:06.360 So, but we're going there, right?

00:11:10.300 Well, no.

00:11:11.780 So here's the thing.

00:11:14.800 No.

00:11:15.480 Yeah, we are going there.

00:11:16.640 So the way this is written, again, we'd like to work with the U.S.

00:11:22.500 So when he did the press conference, he said, we'd like to work with the U.S.

00:11:26.100 and we'd like not to have tariffs.

00:11:28.720 But if we have tariffs, we have to go on our own path.

00:11:32.360 Therefore, this plan will get us to the new path.

00:11:37.960 And the new path, and this is where I was a little confused with it, the new path really

00:11:43.060 speaks to the fact that we'd be producing a couple million cars for sale on an annual

00:11:47.840 basis in Canada.

00:11:49.420 Because that's what the appetite is for new cars in Canada.

00:11:51.600 And that would keep the auto industry thriving and surviving in the country?

00:11:55.560 No, it really wouldn't.

00:11:57.180 Two million a year?

00:11:58.420 It would be okay.

00:11:59.320 But right now, because right now we're selling another two million into the U.S.

00:12:03.680 Like, you know, our, you know, crossing the border eight times and going back in the fourth.

00:12:08.980 So our traffic in the auto business, the automotive business, and whether it be parts or whether

00:12:14.620 it be cars built, is roughly another two million cars that are going across border built.

00:12:21.300 So yeah, no, I don't think this, it does something.

00:12:25.680 I'm not sure, it definitely will not get us back to where we are today.

00:12:29.980 My first thing is, I wish I was smart enough as an engineer or an inventor to come up with

00:12:34.660 an additive to putting your fuel tank before you get your testing.

00:12:38.520 And then you come up, oh, geez, Mr. Makutu, your EV numbers are fantastic.

00:12:43.860 Pass, keep driving your truck.

00:12:45.280 But pillar number three is your rebates that you get if you buy an EV car.

00:12:50.760 Yeah, yeah.

00:12:51.260 Yeah.

00:12:51.580 So four, this is to establish a comprehensive trade regime that strengthens the competitiveness

00:12:58.360 of the auto sector.

00:13:00.160 Canada's new government will.

00:13:02.980 And then it goes on and takes you through all the things that we'll do.

00:13:05.960 But, and it talks about Canada recently deepened its strategic partnership with the Republic

00:13:11.820 of Korea by signing a memorandum of understanding to strengthen Canada-Korea industrial collaboration

00:13:17.480 for future mobility.

00:13:19.480 This MOU builds other MOUs that Canada has signed with global automakers to promote cooperation.

00:13:26.080 Now, this is tied also to the potential deal to buy 12 state-of-the-art new submarines from

00:13:32.900 South Korea and to Republic of Korea.

00:13:35.460 Now, it just came out yesterday that to even sweeten the deal, not only will they have special

00:13:41.260 docks and dry docks in Victoria, B.C., and CBS-Kleimalt to service the submarines, the Republic of

00:13:50.200 Korea is saying we'll build new mobile artillery units and vehicles in Canada as well.

00:13:56.660 Yeah.

00:13:57.120 Oh, congrats.

00:13:57.820 We did a show on this.

00:13:59.100 Right.

00:13:59.980 We did a show on this.

00:14:01.020 And so they already have the idea of building SOB jets in Quebec.

00:14:05.780 Yeah.

00:14:06.020 And somewhere in Canada, they would build these Korean mobile artillery pieces.

00:14:11.400 They're doing it.

00:14:12.180 So this is where I see he's like, okay, we'll buy the subs, but build a factory and build

00:14:17.140 those things here.

00:14:18.280 Yeah.

00:14:18.980 Well, and he also goes on.

00:14:20.260 Canada has agreed to a new strategic partnership with China, a global leader in EV manufacturing,

00:14:25.820 to further diversify trade and catalyze new investment in the auto sector.

00:14:31.680 So, and he's talking about the fixed volume of EVs, but quite frankly, you know, I think

00:14:37.160 where we're going, I think we all know where we're going, but eventually if the market drops

00:14:41.740 out and the big three automakers don't retool themselves to get into the EV game.

00:14:46.540 Then what?

00:14:47.360 Well, then the Chinese will expand their quotas. 0.86

00:14:49.520 You know, as much as a lot of people are upset about this and wring their hands over Chinese

00:14:54.900 investment, find me a country where China doesn't have a foothold in that, that country's

00:15:02.200 economy.

00:15:03.140 Yeah.

00:15:03.580 They're all over the world, Paul.

00:15:04.940 Oh yeah, for sure.

00:15:05.920 All over the world.

00:15:06.980 And if it, if it can benefit Canadians to build some Chinese made Chinese design electric 0.83

00:15:13.320 vehicles in the province and keeps people employed and tax review coming to the system

00:15:18.600 for social services and infrastructure, is it a bad thing?

00:15:21.780 I don't think so.

00:15:23.640 No.

00:15:24.160 Does it have to be GM or Ford always?

00:15:27.160 And if they're not going to do business with us, don't we have a moral obligation for the

00:15:32.200 people and the workers of Canada to figure out if someone will do a job here and we'll

00:15:36.540 keep these plants open somehow, some way.

00:15:38.980 I mean, if they're, if Carney's saying, as you're saying like, Hey, this is the reality of what's

00:15:44.100 going to happen in the next decade, the testing, the emissions, the EVs, we're going to have to

00:15:49.000 get them somewhere and make them affordable.

00:15:52.080 Well, and if, if the tariffs are prohibited from the U S and you know, the U S the big three

00:15:57.700 automakers are going to pack up and leave, which kind of ties into pillar five, right?

00:16:03.120 To protect Canadian auto workers and business for immediate pressure while helping them bridge,

00:16:07.940 helping them bridge them to the future.

00:16:10.220 Canada's new government will, and basically provide a grant sharing, prevent supports and

00:16:18.240 established workforce alliances.

00:16:19.940 So provide employment assistance and reskilling supports to 66,000 workers across Canada, including

00:16:28.780 displaced workers with a $570 million investment.

00:16:33.940 Well, they're going to need to, if some of the, I mean, we're already seeing some of the

00:16:36.980 car plants or cutting shifts.

00:16:38.780 Well, so the interesting thing, so just think about it, how many people are in the auto?

00:16:41.800 So I think if I remember correctly, there's 130,000 people in the auto industry in Canada.

00:16:48.120 That sounds about right.

00:16:48.880 Yeah.

00:16:49.120 Yeah.

00:16:49.360 That might be off by some.

00:16:50.760 And if I am, let me know.

00:16:51.800 But, uh, so now you're talking about 66,000 workers possibly being displaced.

00:16:57.680 So, but I, you know, if I, you know, it's, it's a fairly mature industry.

00:17:01.960 So I, I assume by the time they retire and do everything else, you know, and the rest of

00:17:07.440 them are going to be on the line, uh, looking for work.

00:17:10.680 Yeah.

00:17:11.160 And quite frankly, they're going to have to find something to do with them.

00:17:14.560 Right.

00:17:15.480 Whether it's building the Republic of Korea design, artillery pieces or Chinese electric

00:17:20.940 vehicles or electric buses and trucks, it will be something.

00:17:24.960 Well, and hopefully, and hopefully we make it a requirement, you know, whether it's Chinese, 0.99

00:17:28.960 Korea, wherever these new cars are coming from, to your point is to set down in Canada and

00:17:33.300 use our steel and aluminum and those things.

00:17:35.440 Cause we have to, right?

00:17:36.440 Yeah, yeah, we have to.

00:17:37.760 So, so, you know, it's interesting, Jim, I, you know, went through and, you know, I was

00:17:42.480 getting ready for the show and I spent a lot of time on Kuzma.

00:17:45.360 So, and, you know, uh, with, with vehicles, vehicles have been a funny thing for North America

00:17:53.180 as far as how countries have coveted.

00:17:56.600 And I remember this back to when I was first starting in business, you know, you could show

00:18:01.640 up and you could be pitching, you know, a product or something going on.

00:18:06.140 You got off a plane and said, you were going to build an auto plant.

00:18:09.400 You were given tax breaks.

00:18:10.920 You were given employment incentives.

00:18:12.580 You were given like, people just went bananas.

00:18:15.080 If you said, and you know, and I remember that made a town, I remember the Magna guys, 1.00

00:18:19.300 you know, wherever they went, they were coveted to go there.

00:18:21.640 Right.

00:18:21.880 They were basically, you know, oh my goodness, they're here.

00:18:24.900 Let's roll out the red carpet.

00:18:26.760 And it was very interesting, right?

00:18:28.440 Because a lot of times there was a net negative to the community from a tax perspective or from

00:18:35.320 a revenue perspective.

00:18:36.320 It created jobs, but quite frankly, uh, you know, they had to fund it.

00:18:41.500 They had to fund the infrastructure and they did quite frankly.

00:18:44.380 So, you know, when Kuzma came up, it was the same type of, you know, tug and pull that happened

00:18:50.740 amongst the politicians of the time, as we talked about, you know, whether it's, uh, Trump and,

00:18:55.940 and, uh, Trudeau and, and all those people, they still were battling over components and,

00:19:01.560 and basically, and with a real specific attitude that they want to make sure that foreign, uh,

00:19:09.760 entities could not surface in the automotive market in North America.

00:19:13.740 So it's interesting how things have shifted.

00:19:15.940 And I, you know, I was going to get more into it today, but then I looked at this and I thought,

00:19:19.900 wow, what a paradigm shift.

00:19:22.720 Absolutely.

00:19:23.380 It is like this whole agreement.

00:19:24.840 When you read all the, you know, labor value content and, and, uh, uh, uh, how they determined

00:19:33.040 components and the percentage of, uh, qualifying original destination of parts that go into vehicles

00:19:40.920 and content and all the formulas that went into determining Kuzma for vehicles to make sure

00:19:46.800 that those parts were made in North America, made sure the labor rates that were used and

00:19:51.440 the labor quality of the people that worked on them was, uh, fair and equal that then it

00:19:57.820 was months and months of hard negotiation went into figuring that out.

00:20:02.360 And now we've broken, it appears we're going to break that, you know, that's what's signaling

00:20:08.340 is that that's not going to happen.

00:20:10.000 And we're going to end up in Canada going in the opposite direction.

00:20:14.760 Well, and I do find something interesting.

00:20:17.420 So every modern car now, when you go to mechanic, they plug a computer because that's how they

00:20:23.400 diagnose the car.

00:20:24.700 Yeah.

00:20:25.000 That's the diagnostics in that computer are microchips that are made in Taiwan.

00:20:29.580 Yeah.

00:20:30.100 So it's not possible to have a vehicle now basically around the world that is a hundred

00:20:36.000 percent, all domestic parts.

00:20:37.680 There will be some part of it that comes from some other country.

00:20:40.980 That's the way it is right now.

00:20:42.420 Yeah.

00:20:43.320 Oh yeah, it is.

00:20:44.340 And it goes back and forth, but you know, and there's, there's, you know, I brought up

00:20:48.400 Magnum, there's a few other ones, quite frankly, but aftermarket parts became a huge market in

00:20:53.740 Canada that has, I think 700 parts suppliers in Canada right now.

00:20:58.840 And, uh, you know, I was wrong early on.

00:21:00.660 I just came to a stat here that basically 12% of cars manufactured in Canada are sold in

00:21:06.600 Canada.

00:21:07.220 Yeah.

00:21:07.920 So it's a huge number that goes outside of Canada.

00:21:10.160 It's bigger than I thought, quite frankly.

00:21:12.420 And, and that's where we've come to.

00:21:14.240 So now, you know, how do we, how do we function with that going away?

00:21:20.000 That's where he's at.

00:21:20.940 So, you know, and that was today, that was where he said, now I didn't think the EV, I'll

00:21:25.320 be truthful with it.

00:21:26.060 I was, I was thinking, uh, when all the press releases were coming out last night, I thought

00:21:31.660 he would, uh, eliminate the quote, the quotas, you know, the mandate to go to electric cars

00:21:37.180 and he wouldn't bring it in, but he did.

00:21:39.540 He did it in a reverse methodology.

00:21:42.040 And I guess the reason Doug Ford was so happy with those conversation is he's still going

00:21:48.080 down the EV.

00:21:49.480 Yeah.

00:21:49.900 Yeah.

00:21:50.220 The EV way.

00:21:50.980 So find me a country that isn't thinking, well, Western countries, the middle power,

00:21:58.860 central Europe and all that.

00:22:00.640 They're going to electric, this electric, that, I mean, I've traveled on the high-speed

00:22:04.180 electric train in France.

00:22:05.520 It was fabulous.

00:22:06.560 So for a lot of countries around the world, electric trains, trucks, cars, and vehicles

00:22:11.420 are just a way of life.

00:22:13.440 And it's, it's, it's great that he's doing all this, but part of his Mark Carney and all

00:22:20.500 levels of government is building a hydroelectric infrastructure to the point in this country

00:22:25.660 where you can be in a small and medium-sized town far away from a big city and be able to

00:22:31.100 plug your vehicle in.

00:22:32.440 And until that happens, that's the big challenge, Paul.

00:22:35.240 Yeah, no, it is a big challenge.

00:22:37.160 Now he's got to, again, it's transitioning into that challenge and then figuring out what

00:22:41.980 to do with those people who are currently here.

00:22:44.580 Yeah.

00:22:45.080 And there's, I was right.

00:22:46.320 There's 130,000 people directly in the auto industry.

00:22:50.140 Indirectly, there's 473,000 people in motor, motor vehicle sales and services.

00:22:57.520 Yeah.

00:22:57.940 So that's 2024 stats.

00:22:59.600 So it, it is bigger than I thought, you know, and, and that's going to be the

00:23:05.080 challenge is getting them through it.

00:23:06.680 Now it's interesting, you know, you look at, so let's, let's talk about it for a minute.

00:23:10.900 And this is something that I know, uh, Ian Lee, he's a professor at, uh, Sprott school

00:23:17.620 of business.

00:23:18.320 He's talked about, I know Dan McTaggs talked about it, right?

00:23:22.000 The, the auto industry gets this, as I mentioned, a lot of this focus, but there are people that

00:23:27.260 believe that the contribution to GDP outside of all the subsidies and everything we give to

00:23:31.620 it isn't as big as we think.

00:23:34.120 Well, and it's funny to say that because if you talk to Doug Ford, that's the holy trinity

00:23:38.620 of the economy in the country is the auto industry.

00:23:41.280 How dare you even mention that?

00:23:43.020 Yes.

00:23:43.560 So the separating fact from fiction is not easy.

00:23:46.300 No.

00:23:46.880 Both with the political spin in the media or the reporting.

00:23:50.200 Yeah.

00:23:50.560 Because it's a lot of, it's like, if we lose the auto industry, we lose our economy.

00:23:54.400 Yeah.

00:23:54.800 But as you're saying, that's not necessarily true.

00:23:56.980 A lot of times when they report the stats for the auto industry, they put kind of oil

00:24:01.260 and gas in there.

00:24:02.240 So when you kind of take everything out and you take a look at it, it tends not to be as

00:24:07.020 big as we think.

00:24:08.140 So, and I'm not downplaying it.

00:24:09.700 It's a lot of jobs and it really is jobs and politics and unions.

00:24:12.980 And what hurt the towns that they lose.

00:24:14.440 And the towns.

00:24:15.260 So it's very, it's very targeted and specific to areas that, that basically their ecosystem

00:24:20.200 is based on those auto plants, which very, you know, how do we see, you remember a lot

00:24:24.740 of American cities, you know, in the old days when their mining dried up or when the

00:24:29.200 manufacturing dried up.

00:24:30.100 The Rust Belt.

00:24:30.840 The Rust Belt.

00:24:31.420 Yeah.

00:24:31.560 Yes, exactly.

00:24:32.520 Right.

00:24:33.040 Pennsylvania and Cleveland, Ohio, Erie, Buffalo, all those places.

00:24:37.140 Yeah.

00:24:37.380 They remember when it all dried up and the, it just, that's it.

00:24:41.680 Right.

00:24:41.900 It was over.

00:24:43.060 And for a lot of them, nothing came back.

00:24:45.100 Well, and that's part of the Trump scenario, right?

00:24:47.560 He wants to bring them back.

00:24:49.100 He wants to open them back up.

00:24:51.160 And again, I've always struggled with where he was going to find the people and the resources

00:24:55.740 to do that.

00:24:56.420 But, you know, that's to be seen, I guess, as we go forward.

00:24:59.900 So auto, I guess now we wait, now we're waiting now again, as we talked about on the other

00:25:05.080 show, we wait till July.

00:25:08.380 And in the interim, I guess we've put our cards on the table.

00:25:12.460 So this is an interesting, a very interesting negotiating strategy, right?

00:25:16.340 We've put our cards on the table and we've said, here's where we're going to go.

00:25:21.640 You tell us what you want to do next.

00:25:23.280 So it's, again, you know, whether it be a Davos or whatever we're doing, our, our prime

00:25:28.700 minister has taken the stance that he's going to lead in this conversation.

00:25:35.180 Which goes back to the previous show.

00:25:36.960 You'd mentioned that, Hey, we've done deals.

00:25:39.360 We're ready to go.

00:25:40.640 We're not waiting for July 1st.

00:25:43.120 Yeah.

00:25:43.400 We're just simply not going to wait around.

00:25:45.000 There's too much at stake here.

00:25:46.380 Yeah.

00:25:46.720 We have a plan.

00:25:47.700 And, you know, if you, if you say you're not interested on July 1st, here we go.

00:25:51.780 Yeah.

00:25:51.980 All right.

00:25:52.440 Now let's go to another industry for a minute.

00:25:54.880 So I'm going to kind of move away from auto, from a steel and aluminum.

00:25:58.140 Yeah.

00:25:58.680 So now we're in the steel and aluminum.

00:26:00.220 So primarily Ontario and Quebec, you know, Hamilton, Saginaw in Quebec, that's where we,

00:26:07.720 you know, see our smelters in our, our mills.

00:26:10.540 And so the issue now is becoming, you know, we've, we've been living with tariffs.

00:26:17.600 You know, this started in our previous show, I think in 2018 when Trump or 2017, when Trump

00:26:23.380 got in right away, tariff, steel and aluminum tariff.

00:26:26.720 Right.

00:26:27.080 Uh, and then, you know, we reciprocated with tariffs.

00:26:31.620 And so we've been doing these reciprocating tariffs on steel and aluminum for, you know,

00:26:36.820 a decade and it continues, you know, uh, I forget which address it was recently, but he

00:26:44.620 actually came out and he said, we have more steel plants opening up in America now than

00:26:50.960 you can believe.

00:26:52.340 Oh, Davos.

00:26:53.740 It was Davos in his Davos speech.

00:26:55.380 He actually said that he said, I don't need any of you now.

00:26:58.640 He says, I have more steel plants opening up.

00:27:00.960 So now, you know, uh, unfortunately Canada has been fairly reliant, very reliant on the

00:27:09.060 U S you know, we talked about it earlier.

00:27:11.120 Most of our steel, uh, is exported to the U S there's only a small amount.

00:27:18.140 It's a very tiny amount goes internationally.

00:27:20.460 Our aluminum, we're in a little more robust, uh, situation because, uh, we have the ability

00:27:26.400 to use our aluminum for, uh, power generation and other things that are more valuable and

00:27:32.560 we can keep producing it.

00:27:33.740 And given, you know, uh, Quebec and bauxite and everything we have, we have the ability

00:27:40.180 to produce very good aluminum.

00:27:42.080 So we do have some advantages there, but I think in our steel world, we're going to struggle

00:27:47.200 a little, and I think our market is probably going to contract substantially, but that's

00:27:52.000 ties into some of the deals that Mark Carney is making.

00:27:54.920 If he makes this submarine deal with South Korea, right?

00:27:57.880 Part of his, he's going to use Canadian steel to ship to Korea to make those submarines.

00:28:03.720 So that's creating a market there using steel for all sorts of different major projects.

00:28:10.580 They're building a whole series of state of the art guided missile destroyers in Halifax

00:28:15.080 at Irving shipyard, shipping Canadian steel down to the dockyards and the dry docks on Halifax

00:28:20.700 to cut the steel, to build those ships.

00:28:22.920 So by doing a lot of these, especially with the armed forces, the huge spending spree and

00:28:28.120 some of these other major infrastructure projects he's talking about, he's trying to think doing

00:28:32.400 it with an eye to Canadian steel and aluminum.

00:28:34.580 So at least there's some business happening there.

00:28:37.720 Algoma in Sault Ste.

00:28:39.500 Marie and the big steel plants in Hamilton.

00:28:41.840 Yeah.

00:28:42.400 Well, and you know, it's interesting.

00:28:43.940 So I think it was, we shipped $6.3 billion worth of steel in 2024 to the US.

00:28:50.180 The US shipped 3 billion back to us.

00:28:52.640 And there's different types.

00:28:53.960 You know, we did a show as a really great guy.

00:28:57.200 It was when we started and he owned a steel mart or he ran a steel mart.

00:29:01.900 And quite frankly, it was a really good show.

00:29:04.220 And he educated us on the types of different steels.

00:29:07.220 They're not all equal.

00:29:08.420 Round steel, flat steels, aluminum.

00:29:10.580 So he took us through it all and which ones come from where and why Chinese steel tends

00:29:15.140 to have some challenges with imperfections and quality.

00:29:18.080 So he took us through why and how.

00:29:20.100 And it was very good.

00:29:21.160 And his analysis was we weren't going to have a problem.

00:29:24.480 And I hope he's right.

00:29:25.860 But he basically said that we would, over time, we would gravitate if the US went away

00:29:32.780 to make the steels they were providing.

00:29:34.780 So we would lose the $6.3 billion that we shipped to the US.

00:29:40.420 We would do our own internal trade, which is roughly $3 billion inside of Canada.

00:29:45.140 And we would replace what the US was shipping.

00:29:47.540 So our net-net $6 billion would be the same.

00:29:50.640 I hope he's right.

00:29:51.640 Yeah.

00:29:52.120 And it was a very interesting conversation.

00:29:54.680 That gentleman definitely sounded like he knew what he was talking about.

00:29:57.440 Yeah.

00:29:57.660 He was very knowledgeable on the subject, Paul.

00:29:59.140 He was very good.

00:29:59.880 And so he thought that the net-net of over time would balance out.

00:30:04.400 Yeah.

00:30:04.600 So fingers crossed, I'm hoping that would happen.

00:30:06.620 But I think we all know at this point, the steel and aluminum business to the US is eventually

00:30:13.240 going to disappear.

00:30:15.200 But that is why Carney is working so hard, traveling around the world, trying to cut different deals

00:30:21.980 to different countries, maybe markets we've never thought about before.

00:30:25.500 Because every year, if you're selling that much aluminum and steel to America, why would

00:30:29.600 you break your back to cut deals with other countries?

00:30:31.860 You don't need to.

00:30:32.820 It's right there.

00:30:33.940 But now they have an incentive to sell huge amounts of steel and aluminum to countries

00:30:39.620 around the world that are not America.

00:30:42.140 Yeah.

00:30:42.280 And that's, I mean, that's really one of the reasons Carney got elected, because everyone

00:30:45.940 thinks he's the one that can cut those deals.

00:30:48.340 Yeah.

00:30:48.820 Well, and it's time now, right?

00:30:50.240 So I think the pressure is on to actually, because as we get closer to July and that

00:30:55.140 conversation takes place, I think we're there.

00:30:57.620 So, you know, Quebec, nine aluminum smelters.

00:31:01.100 I didn't know there were nine.

00:31:03.540 Kitimat actually has a smelter for aluminum smelters, right?

00:31:08.420 And of course, you know, Ontario, as we know, we have Algoma and, you know, all the stuff

00:31:13.540 going on.

00:31:13.780 Those are huge plants.

00:31:14.720 They're huge plants and a huge number of people.

00:31:18.080 So that's why I believe in the next, the next four to six weeks, Paul, sometime late

00:31:23.180 February, early mid-March, Carney will make the announcement about the submarines and

00:31:27.600 that deal would include Canadian steel and aluminum.

00:31:30.540 Well, the military, you know, you were before the show.

00:31:32.440 It's interesting.

00:31:33.040 You and I were sitting there, you know, you were on your phone, you were talking to me

00:31:36.120 about defense and you were saying, you know, we got to get to 3% and that's about

00:31:42.720 35 billion extra, extra dollars we got to spend.

00:31:46.200 So now's the time if we're going to dump, you know, dump, I don't mean dump, but if

00:31:51.560 we're going to move to do that, it's the time to do that because that'll create, that'll

00:31:55.740 backfill what's being that 3 billion that needs to be transitioned can be rejigged to

00:32:03.340 use the aluminum and steel from our existing plants and smelters.

00:32:07.420 And that'll last a few years because unfortunately the timeline to build some of these things

00:32:11.360 are pretty complex and complicated.

00:32:13.280 So it's not like this short term thing.

00:32:15.160 This is four or five, 10 years of work to build everything they're trying to plan to buy and

00:32:21.120 create.

00:32:21.780 Right.

00:32:22.360 And that, that helps.

00:32:23.720 And he's put, you know, as far as programs, you know, they've basically, uh, uh, they've

00:32:29.840 allocated about $2 billion.

00:32:31.460 I was looking at it before the show, about $2 billion in assistance to help that happen.

00:32:36.400 So the funds he's, you know, the budget, as we went through, had a lot of questions and

00:32:42.380 a huge deficit.

00:32:43.840 But the one thing I think that I commend them for doing is they put a big enough, uh, let's

00:32:49.040 call it not a slush fund, but it's a big enough fund contingency fund that's available

00:32:54.040 so they can, uh, use it for things like this.

00:32:57.000 So now's the time to transition those, those plants and smelters and all those things over

00:33:01.820 to actually get ready for what's coming.

00:33:03.440 And I'll give Carney enough benefit of the doubt that when he's doing these announcements

00:33:09.640 and pronouncements, you may quibble with some of his language and what he's saying and what

00:33:14.060 it means in the longterm, but he's not thinking that day.

00:33:17.780 He's thinking six months, two years, 10 years from now, how it'll benefit these plants and

00:33:24.600 these manufacturers and these industries in Canada.

00:33:27.300 He's trying to play the long game where Trump is just every day waking up when he goes to

00:33:31.360 the bathroom, sits in the toilet and tweets something crazy.

00:33:34.740 He's not, Carney is.

00:33:37.380 A little bit of, you know, and again, having, having lived in both places, it's a little bit

00:33:42.040 of different characters, right?

00:33:43.500 So, you know, the American go, go, rah, rah scenario.

00:33:47.740 You know, he's like, I want to build, uh, uh, you know, I want to go and build, uh, steel

00:33:52.920 mills, they go and build steel mills, right?

00:33:55.440 It's just like overnight they're in play and there's, you know, and I, I don't disagree

00:33:59.540 with him.

00:33:59.740 He's probably, he probably does have a hundred mills coming up.

00:34:03.520 Maybe, maybe I know he wants to build battleships with no one's built a battleship in any Navy

00:34:08.800 since the 1940s.

00:34:10.140 And he's declared he wants to build them now.

00:34:11.940 That's the problem.

00:34:12.540 They're going to need a lot of steel if they're doing that.

00:34:14.580 The problem is people.

00:34:16.000 Yeah.

00:34:16.940 Right.

00:34:17.320 The problem is people in training.

00:34:19.460 That's where he's, that's where I think he falls short.

00:34:21.300 I don't think he fully gets it how, and, you know, having worked there and having spent

00:34:26.260 time there, quite frankly, you know, as you do all these things to remove people and you're,

00:34:31.500 you're, you know, going through and looking at your immigration policies, you know, you

00:34:36.880 do need to have a healthy population that's willing to go back into that plant and stand

00:34:42.380 on that line and do that work.

00:34:43.960 And that's something that I just didn't see when I was in America.

00:34:47.380 I'll be truth with you.

00:34:48.160 When I left America, uh, there was none of that happening.

00:34:51.320 So if you're, if you're going to the bowels of a ship and welding and upside down, yeah.

00:34:57.780 Right.

00:34:58.360 I mean, that talk about specialized skills and some of the jobs in, in the skillset it takes

00:35:04.220 to do things.

00:35:05.280 Uh, if you watch the show land, man, uh, you know, uh, Taylor shared, and they do a great

00:35:10.920 depiction of what it is to be in an oil rig and drill.

00:35:14.160 How bloody dangerous it is and how hard it is.

00:35:17.160 Oh, they get killed.

00:35:18.040 They get, they get limbs cut off.

00:35:19.980 Oh yeah.

00:35:20.660 All the time.

00:35:21.520 And so maybe an 18 year old graduating high school and a middle class in Oxnard, California

00:35:28.420 doesn't want to go work in an oil rig offshore and maybe get his arm ripped off.

00:35:33.000 Right.

00:35:33.160 Well, that is, if you avoid a drug problem, gambling problem, you know, you don't get

00:35:38.180 killed or murdered in one of the camps and you get to actually survive working every day

00:35:43.140 to get out and get done.

00:35:44.360 They get some money.

00:35:45.080 Well, they say, you know, you gotta, it's basically, you got a 10 year, you got a decade

00:35:48.700 lifeline on it.

00:35:49.480 So if you're going to go do that for a decade, you're running.

00:35:52.640 And if you make it, if you make it, which in the show they talk about, right.

00:35:56.560 It's time for me to retire.

00:35:58.000 Right.

00:35:58.420 Yeah.

00:35:58.780 Before it gets me.

00:36:00.180 And it does get you.

00:36:01.500 It does get them.

00:36:02.280 Right.

00:36:02.560 So that's why there's only so long you can do it.

00:36:05.420 You know, because the reason I'm bringing it up is Trump is talking about, as you say,

00:36:09.160 we're going to do this and this and get these.

00:36:11.200 Well, you, okay.

00:36:12.000 There's all these young people graduating high school, college, university that he thinks

00:36:17.320 are going to take all these jobs, but the stats and demographics have shown Paul that

00:36:22.940 they'd rather do these jobs.

00:36:24.540 Oh, I don't want to do that job.

00:36:26.120 So then what do you have to, well, you're going to have to bring people in from out

00:36:29.480 of country who are willing and able to do those jobs.

00:36:32.140 You have no choice because that's not for everybody.

00:36:36.280 But, but then they'll become wealthy.

00:36:39.000 Absolutely.

00:36:39.400 They will.

00:36:40.320 Imagine what a welder makes in some of those shipyards. 1.00

00:36:43.220 Exactly.

00:36:43.500 How dangerous it is.

00:36:44.920 Yeah.

00:36:45.480 Well, that's the, the, the higher, you know, the higher education, uh, conundrum right now.

00:36:49.940 Right.

00:36:50.220 Do I, do I go get a trade or do I go get a higher, you know, higher education, quite frankly,

00:36:54.840 in America right now, you'd probably be going the other way.

00:36:58.200 To get a trade.

00:36:58.980 Yeah.

00:36:59.160 You'd be crazy. 0.84

00:36:59.900 Yeah. 1.00

00:37:00.160 You'd be crazy.

00:37:00.740 If your kids are coming out, would you want to take the loans and the challenge and hope

00:37:04.600 that they can, you know, make it through the competition?

00:37:08.120 I'm living it right now.

00:37:09.400 Yeah, exactly.

00:37:11.500 So the last one I had for today, right.

00:37:13.580 And I want to go through is energy.

00:37:14.940 Yeah.

00:37:15.080 And I left it for last because it really isn't last for Canada.

00:37:19.300 It should be first.

00:37:20.820 Oh, I agree.

00:37:22.060 And I just wanted to, I wanted to hit on it because it is our biggest leverage.

00:37:26.560 Absolutely it is.

00:37:27.280 It is.

00:37:27.540 And we don't talk about it and I'm sure they're talking about it.

00:37:30.620 I'm sure behind the scenes in, in, you know, the liberal caucus and around the table,

00:37:36.000 they're talking about all the time, but you know, from a natural gas perspective, I was

00:37:40.300 taking a look this morning in 2024, Canada exported 8.8 billion cubic feet per day of

00:37:47.840 natural gas to the United States.

00:37:49.900 This marked an increase of 8.1% from previous year.

00:37:53.840 Canada supplies approximately 99% of its natural gas imported into the U.S. and accounts for

00:37:59.920 9% of the U.S.'s natural gas demand.

00:38:02.800 That's a big, big number.

00:38:04.400 Yeah.

00:38:04.600 We're a big player.

00:38:05.340 Like we're a big player in that.

00:38:06.820 And we haven't even tapped that.

00:38:09.200 No.

00:38:09.720 And we're just starting to do the liquid natural gas and ship it to the Asian markets.

00:38:14.940 Exactly.

00:38:15.600 Right.

00:38:16.340 And we export into the Midwest, West and East, you know, primarily into the Midwest and

00:38:22.100 West of the United States.

00:38:23.600 You're talking Chicago, St. Louis, Denver, all those kinds of cities rely on our natural

00:38:28.180 gas.

00:38:28.680 Yeah.

00:38:28.900 Midwest into Oklahoma.

00:38:30.300 Yeah.

00:38:30.540 Yeah.

00:38:30.780 So, yeah.

00:38:31.740 So that's where we were sending our natural gas.

00:38:33.920 And we're a huge player in that.

00:38:35.520 And quite frankly, that's not an overnight disappearance.

00:38:38.980 So at the end of the day, if we said we need a tariff on that, over time, they might replace

00:38:47.380 it.

00:38:47.580 Over time, they'd find.

00:38:48.440 But I still think this is why it's such an urgent need to expand pipelines to Churchill,

00:38:57.140 to the BC coast and create other markets and sell natural liquefied natural gas and

00:39:03.600 heavy oil to all these Asian and European countries.

00:39:06.420 So if anything happens with America, they still have markets and still have the way to get

00:39:11.220 it there.

00:39:12.100 Right.

00:39:12.280 Well, and that was the conversation yesterday with the energy minister.

00:39:15.260 Yeah.

00:39:15.860 You know, when he was questioned about whether the Chinese investors were going to actually

00:39:19.900 build the pipeline.

00:39:20.700 So now pipelines, oil and gas or crude oil exports, right?

00:39:25.580 4 million barrels to the U.S. each day.

00:39:30.500 That's a lot.

00:39:31.760 That is a lot.

00:39:32.280 Yeah.

00:39:32.440 It's about 130 billion a year.

00:39:34.760 Right.

00:39:35.380 Is what's moving back and forth.

00:39:37.260 Right.

00:39:38.460 So, and we make up 60% of imported oil to the U.S.

00:39:45.480 I mean, it's a huge amount, it's a huge amount, right?

00:39:49.560 And think about how cost effective it is.

00:39:51.740 You're just laying a pipeline from one field on Canadian side to another field to the American

00:39:56.900 side.

00:39:57.440 You're not crossing oceans.

00:39:59.160 You're not worried about super tankers.

00:40:01.180 I know.

00:40:01.540 It's the easiest transaction of oil and gas on the planet is from one country to the other.

00:40:06.780 And we've, unfortunately, we've picked a fight in Canada amongst ourself over it, which

00:40:11.720 it seems, again, I get why, you know, we do the Dan shows and we do a bunch of shows on

00:40:17.100 this all the time.

00:40:18.580 It just, it's, it's, it's almost like, it's almost like EVs at some point, whether I like

00:40:24.820 it or not, I might not love EVs.

00:40:27.640 I don't.

00:40:28.640 But we're probably going to be driving them someday.

00:40:30.180 But it looks like we're going in that direction.

00:40:32.260 Yeah.

00:40:32.540 But we picked the lane.

00:40:33.920 Yeah.

00:40:34.660 So good.

00:40:35.240 We picked the lane now, you know, let's wrap it up.

00:40:37.660 We are, you know, quite frankly, we picked that lane a long time ago in Ontario.

00:40:41.260 When we basically, you know, put so much money into those plants, as we talked about.

00:40:47.480 So we've already, we picked that lane two years ago, quite frankly.

00:40:51.500 And there's no getting out of the lane.

00:40:52.640 No, no, there's not.

00:40:53.400 We got to go forward.

00:40:54.480 And so quite frankly, transitioning over with the oil and gas, you know, that's our, that's

00:41:00.520 our trump card or ace card, right?

00:41:03.600 Yeah.

00:41:04.060 Our ace card.

00:41:04.740 So that's our card.

00:41:05.720 We got to play it.

00:41:06.440 Yeah.

00:41:06.740 And quite frankly, in those negotiations.

00:41:08.360 So if he comes to the table and says, fine, okay, well then let's talk about oil and gas

00:41:13.520 and natural gas.

00:41:15.160 Because especially the kind of winter we're going through now, do you see they're having

00:41:19.840 record cold temperatures in Georgia, Northern Florida?

00:41:23.520 Two feet of snow in Georgia the other day.

00:41:25.580 Can you believe that?

00:41:26.620 Yeah.

00:41:26.700 So if they don't have natural gas for heating, they would freeze to death.

00:41:30.660 Exactly.

00:41:31.500 So, and they're not going to replace that in the next decade.

00:41:35.900 No.

00:41:36.320 He's not going to be there.

00:41:37.420 So quite frankly, that's the discussion that has to take place.

00:41:40.980 And, you know, all these other things right now.

00:41:44.780 So at the end of the day, you know, when we go through, these are just three of the items

00:41:50.440 in Kuzma.

00:41:51.860 They've shifted even today as we came to go to the show, right?

00:41:56.300 It changes hourly.

00:41:59.620 So, you know what?

00:42:01.200 When we originally did the first show on Kuzma, I was a little skeptical when the prime minister

00:42:06.860 said he was done with discussions on Kuzma till July.

00:42:10.760 Yeah.

00:42:11.220 You know what?

00:42:12.080 I'm actually understanding what he's doing now.

00:42:14.100 Yeah.

00:42:14.720 He's cutting deals for other industries and other sectors of our economy, bit by bit,

00:42:20.900 country by country, here, there, and everywhere, and letting the other guy, Trump, stew.

00:42:27.660 And now he knows Trump is showing all his cards.

00:42:31.900 Well, it's pretty easy to win at poker if your other guy keeps dropping his cards in front

00:42:35.420 of you and you haven't.

00:42:37.060 Exactly.

00:42:37.620 So he's just moving forward.

00:42:38.900 And then when July comes, whatever he wants to talk about, you'll just be there or not.

00:42:43.700 Okay.

00:42:44.700 Yeah.

00:42:45.320 And be nice, calm, professional, business-like manner.

00:42:48.840 This is what we're doing now.

00:42:50.080 Okay.

00:42:50.820 Yep.

00:42:51.300 And then, you know, and then I think that's going to rattle Trump if that happens to that

00:42:56.480 point.

00:42:56.820 Because he's going to expect Carney in Canada to be groveling and begging, oh, please don't

00:43:02.140 go.

00:43:02.780 And if they're not playing his game, and then it makes Trump look weak.

00:43:06.700 Yeah.

00:43:07.220 And effective.

00:43:08.380 Yeah.

00:43:08.660 And not needed.

00:43:09.980 No, no.

00:43:10.280 I think, listen, I was wondering what he was doing the last show.

00:43:14.040 I think I said that to you.

00:43:14.900 I'm not sure what's going on here.

00:43:16.280 Why?

00:43:16.960 He's always playing ahead of him.

00:43:18.680 Yeah.

00:43:19.480 I get what he's doing.

00:43:20.840 Yeah, absolutely.

00:43:21.960 Yeah.

00:43:22.160 And look, if at the end of the day, if Canadians can buy a reliable vehicle at a reasonable

00:43:27.520 price, it's not too expensive when we have to do go to the gas station or heat her home. 1.00

00:43:33.200 Canadians are happy.

00:43:34.440 Yeah.

00:43:34.840 Yeah.

00:43:35.120 Okay.

00:43:35.520 Sure.

00:43:35.900 Fine.

00:43:36.440 Yeah.

00:43:36.720 Just don't mess with us.

00:43:39.880 Thank you, Jim.

00:43:40.640 I appreciate it.

00:43:41.260 Thanks, Paul.

00:43:41.420 Thanks, Paul.

True Patriot Love - February 19, 2026

Carney’s EV “Mandate” Flip CUSMA - Part 2

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