Ceasefire… But Missiles Still Flying？
Episode Stats
Words per minute
175.55348
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3
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20
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Summary
A Ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. has been called, but the missiles haven t stopped hitting their targets. Is this a ceasefire, or is it just the beginning of things to come? And if so, what does it mean for the future of the conflict?
Transcript
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They're calling it a ceasefire in Iran, but if you're watching the headlines, the missiles
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haven't stopped. So what gives? Here's the truth. A ceasefire isn't peace, it's a pause. And in this
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case, it's a fragile, messy timeout where nobody fully agrees on the rules and nobody fully trusts
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the other side. Some regions aren't even covered. Proxy groups are still active and both sides are
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testing limits in real time. So yes, there's a ceasefire on paper, but on the ground, the conflict
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is very much alive the question now is does this hold or are we just watching the setup for
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escalation to chat about this uh joining me jim lang hi mike our resident expert on so many things
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and certainly uh you know what honestly on the military front you seem to have a good handle
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on what's happening let me demonstrate something jim yes have peace shall we cease fire oh
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Oh, I didn't expect this unguided missile coming my way.
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We have the ability to target strike, Jim, so just bear that in mind.
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But this is an interesting thing because I think, by and large,
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and certainly I thought this, a ceasefire means nobody's firing at each other,
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nothing's flying through the air, and everybody's taking a breath.
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Yeah, to that end, just so people know, the Cambridge Dictionary ceasefire,
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an agreement usually between two armies to stop fighting
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But the dictionary definition and the reality are often very different things, Mike.
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Yeah, it seems to me that in modern warfare, any sort of conflict where a ceasefire is put into place, it tends to continue on.
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There tends to be a certain aggression from all sides.
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And as I pointed out in the intro, yeah, this is a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S.
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right and the people not involved would be benjamin netanyahu and israel uh and other
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proxies in the region and other gulf states yeah i mean the big thing is for iran is
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we spoke about it last night the two million dollar per super tanker a 407 type toll to get
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out of the strait of hormuz will rebuild their economy rapidly and with more money meaning they
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rebuild the infrastructure and they can rebuild their military with that much money the americans
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hit them hard but didn't beat them so for a lot of the iranian surviving members of the iranian
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regime they're like we took blows we're still here and we're not scared of trump or america
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right now uh the iranian people standing around and protecting uh arms linked i think was a pretty
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big indicator that some form of peace needed to be had i i couldn't see uh trump violating those
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kinds of uh you know rules of engagement to that degree it would have been absolute disaster on
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their part so i think an agreement had to happen by eight o'clock last night there there is something
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called the madman theory and in december of 1972 richard nixon had enough of the north vietnamese
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not coming to the peace table so he ordered operation linebacker to unrestricted bombing
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of hanoi and haiphong and they rolled in there night after night was hundreds of b-52s
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and bob the bejesus out of that country until they returned to the peace table
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and everyone called him a maniac and it was genocide and they were bombing everything in
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north vietnam and nixon to i mean a lot of people have different feelings but he threatened to do it
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and he did it and he did it for a number of days and north vietnam on north vietnam realized he
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was not messing around until they got to the peace table then everything stopped and trump talked
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about he tried some people say well he was doing the madman theory but he didn't do it he threatened
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do it and he taco right now trump always chickens out he backed off well i don't even you know he
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chickens up because he puts himself in this undiplomatic scenario that most leaders of any
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any country would not put themselves in correct you know uh you know when i after this show jim
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i'm gonna push you onto the ground and i'm gonna i'm gonna really give you a couple of shots to
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the head yeah the reality is i'm not capable of that you're a bigger man two i don't really have
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the guts to do that nor do i have the fortitude internally to do it and three there's going to be
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repercussions when i go to jail for assaulting you so you know what i can say whatever i want
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right right and i mean it jim i do want to wrestle you to the ground having said that i know that
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it's not but if you threaten me over and over again and i'm it doesn't happen it doesn't happen
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and what does the threat mean no eventually you're going to say to me shut up i like stop
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threatening me to the ground right and you're you're you're not scared of the threat because
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you haven't followed through on the threat and well you know what it looks to me and maybe you
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can correct me on this i just took a look uh proxy groups will continue to attack each other
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And that has gone on every hour since they started doing this decades ago.
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And then violations begin to happen immediately.
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So it's widely known that, okay, yes, we're in peace talks,
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the terms of our ceasefire ongoing as we make points in the peacemaking process.
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So, you know, if I don't like something at the peace table that's going on
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in our discussions, I'm liable to launch a missile at a target that's going to make a point in that
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negotiation. From my standpoint, as long as Iran doesn't do something to provoke the Americans,
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as long as they avoid American military, American bases, American warships, Trump and his
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administration will think that the ceasefire is still on and continue to negotiate for a peaceful
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agreement but but i think people need to know the missiles still yeah it's going to be it's going to
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be confusing for the average citizen that on one hand they're seeing a story from anderson cooper
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with the ceasefire and then there's mike wickson on the next story talking about well they just
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shot two missiles into dubai yeah like i thought there was a ceasefire yeah and well the ceasefire
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is very specific it's between two countries at the moment yeah and it's tenuous at very best
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And to be honest with you, Trump only cares about American interests
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And what's best for his administration, his presidency,
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and his military in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf,
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and getting product and getting goods flowing through that sea lane again.
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See, this is the thing, and we talked about this last night.
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He's telling Iran, open up that Strait of Hormuz,
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Yeah. And so now that's his demand. It's going to be a tough negotiation, I think,
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through this ceasefire because they really have all the power. They'll just close the strait again
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and then they'll bring back their people around the power plants. I think that we've
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seen Iran demonstrate that they are a formidable opponent and they're not going to sit down.
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And not easily intimidated by the American military might and the Israeli military might.
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Like, they were on the receiving end of cruise missiles and smart bombs and you name it, and they're still there.
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And I would have to think that in Pete Higgs' crazy mind and the people that surround him with equally crazy thoughts,
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they thought unleashing American air power and a military might for a few days bring Iran to the knees.
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And that, I think, was shocking to everybody as well.
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So now let's let's and and I notice in the comments people despise when we do this, but I want to anyway.
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Let's armchair quarterback this just a little bit.
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Sure. Do you think that we see Israel making moves on Iran during this peace process?
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Well, that is the million dollar question right now.
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And I've not seen or heard much from them about the ceasefire.
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I did see something that apparently Netanyahu wasn't crazy,
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I don't know why it seemed to make me feel better that Bibi was not in the mix on this.
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Trump or America does not need Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel's permission to go to a Pakistani emissary and create a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
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They don't need their permission, and they don't need to ask them or tell them anything until they want to.
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It made me laugh that two or three congresspeople posted the same thing.
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So I do think that back home in America, this pause gives people a moment to reflect on how we got here.
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We talked last night that it was going to be in the neighborhood of around $2 trillion to repair the damage done in that region overall.
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We're still a million ships away from recouping.
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And quite frankly, I think the one thing on the 10-point plan, Mike,
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that I think the Americans will push back at is the Iranians want them to get rid of all their military presence in the Persian Gulf.
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And I can't see Americans getting rid of all of it.
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We'll get rid of this and this, but we want one left.
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And the $2 million a ship, maybe that's negotiated down to $1.5 million or $1 million per ship.
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But obviously, this is the first salvo in the negotiations with Iranians.
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Americans will come back because that's how negotiations work.
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Yeah, I predict over the next couple of weeks that there will be conflict,
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a lot of conflict between Israel and the US over this peace process. I think Iran is definitely in
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a seat up front with the US in this negotiating, because like you point out, they didn't just sit
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down. They said, okay, we took it on the chin. Let's go. Now what are we doing? And so I think
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that that position over the next couple of weeks keeps the US and Iran at the table. But I think
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that there are going to be detractors from the other states in the region. And I wonder how that
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goes. I almost think that could be the break on ceasefire and the break on peace talks is other
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players in the region. I might think about Dubai. Dubai has emerged as one of the top tourist
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destinations in the world. They want to get their money flowing back into Dubai. Yeah, they want to
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create a safe state within the Middle East. And that is, I mean, remains to be seen how they do
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that at this point but because no i don't know anyone's like oh oh it's two weeks okay let's go
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to dubai now for four day trip that's not in your agenda funny enough they're on sale if you need to
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go look at the flight deals man i never dreamt i'd be on arab emirates airlines wow look at this
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qatar saudi arabia all those countries whether it's the oil and the oil fields and the oil
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ports the liquid natural gas the sulfur for uh for fertilizer the helium for microchips and
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microprocessors there's so many facets the economy that are affected about this so it's the gulf
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states and all the other countries that they they're eager to get a peace deal and stop this
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and get the economy back to normal so bullets missiles and drones are going to fly during this
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peace process but you need to know a ceasefire isn't maybe what you thought it was the next
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four or five days will be very very telling um how the negotiations go are there talks are there
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substantive talks between iran america and with the pakistanis mediating and if we're seeing stories
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from legit sources that there's actually progress being made then you think okay
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they're getting somewhere because as much as iran's taking it on the chin and keep fighting
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i'm sure they want this to end as well and the fact that they're going to be potentially getting
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that much money per tanker to go through the strait of hormuz they're also thinking practically
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let's get the business let's get the business done and rebuild our economy yeah uh all right
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the next five days we'll keep a watch on it but uh don't be surprised if you keep reading that
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missiles are flying in the Middle East through the Persian Gulf region, because that's likely
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what's going to happen. Thanks, Jim. Like and subscribe and comment. And isn't he a sweet
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bastard? Look at him. How can you dare say that? Look at you. Thank you.
1.00
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Patriotic means looking out for each other and fixing things together. True patriotism is being
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