Conservative Leadership Crisis: Can Poilievre Survive?
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Summary
The Conservative Party of Canada is just weeks away from the Conservative Party Convention in Calgary, Canada's largest and most important gathering of the conservative party of Canada, and the question is, what would happen if the leadership of the party were to change?
Transcript
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look at us just a couple of weeks out from the conservative party convention in calgary at the
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federal level to see what the review is on pierre pauliev and what some of the possibilities could
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be if he was to exit the position of leader of the party and to talk about that i'm delighted
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paul micucci's here and jim lang is here how's it going uh guys thanks for doing a round table on
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this because although this might be somewhat fantastical in its nature of discussion is it
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really no no if you if i may i as a matter of fact i think the conversations this is a real tipping
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point for the federal conservatives what to do all the polls are showing federally the conservatives
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and liberals very very close within one or two percentage points but the gulf between carney's
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likability and pauliev's is massive you it's we'd be naive not to think that the power brokers of
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the conservative party of canada are not thinking if we had that person running the party what would
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the numbers be they have to say that oh yeah they have to and and you know it's interesting coming
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out of the their convention coming out of it they have to give him if they're going to keep him as
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leader they have to give him direction on how they want to conduct themselves yes the policies they want
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to get behind um and i think it's a unique opportunity because you know when the election
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happened terrorists were everything and he stuck on his main mantra you know build the homes act the
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tax you know affordability fight the crime fight the crime yeah so there was you know he stuck on it
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and that was a direction that they wanted to move towards in the election now with this western
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hemisphere domination and a lot more at stake than just tariffs tariffs is one little piece of the
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whole plan now so he's coming into this and they're going to have to look at it and say okay yeah we can
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go back and be tough on tariffs that's fine but it's now tough on a lot of things because you really
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have to figure out what you're going to do how you're going to play and when you go when the parliament
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sits again when you go back into uh the session starts he has to figure out how he wants to conduct
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himself and that's the direction because he didn't have that he kind of after the election
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he went quiet you didn't hear as much we would have conversations where we were like wow he really
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doesn't have an opinion anymore does he but then he got his seat in alberta yes and then it was the
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same old polyev but then jenny byrne was shown the door yes and they have new people around him
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sort of steering the ship yeah steve outhouse came in right and that's going to be a real x factor
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going to the convention and throughout the rest of 2026 how much that changes polyev his perception
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because right now the perception in canada fair or not hasn't changed well i will tell you this uh we
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are headed to calgary for the convention not that we've received media passes or anything yet
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not that that will stop us either uh but we'll be there having a chat with a number of people
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uh both on the conservative and the opposing side uh that revolves around this discussion because
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something obviously needs to change uh in a recent poll i found this to be almost
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it this i found shocking uh the likelihood of voting conservative should pierre polyev no longer
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be party leader this is an abacus poll that took place and you know how i feel about the polls
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but i'll give you the data anyway 29 percent of people in canada are more likely to vote
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conservative 12 percent less likely um if pierre polyev is replaced 29 percent more likely that's the
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election yeah yeah if whomever the leader is because of the last election was so close 29 percent that's
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a they're the ruling government well now i guess at this convention the uh the executive of the
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leadership sits down and they have a discussion and and a review takes place what do you think
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happens at that review first of all what do you think the discussion points are oh wow well it's
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policies so the first thing they're going to talk about in the amongst the general membership is how
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they feel about certain policies so they're going to talk about uh made they're going to talk about
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dei they're going to talk about a bunch of stuff pipelines pipelines what their position is on all
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those policies and is it the right position is that what the membership supports is that what they
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want him to go forward with um you know that's prior to the vote so that's you know a day of just
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going through what the platform is why it is what it is and just to get the climate of the group
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gentlemen you alluded to some other factors in the world now leading into the convention
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i mean let's face it the american military and their elite tier one operators went in there
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grabbed maduro and his wife and took control of venezuela in hours and no matter what denmark says
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or nato says they could do the same thing to greenland by lunchtime with where they already have a
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military presence there i almost wonder by the time that we put this out greenland might have already
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been uh invaded so the the the what donald trump now calls the dunro doctrine which is a take on
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the monroe doctrine from the 1800s in his vision they want all of north america usa canada greenland
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and now venezuela all under their sphere with their resources and oil and minerals and whatnot so
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there has to be some hard questions about polygave if you're prime minister if you're running the party
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how do you handle that because fair or not this is not conspiracy theory this is we're seeing in
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real time what's happening in venezuela and how open trump is about his future canada could be next
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we also see our prime minister making no strategic headway in other countries so far uh and he's headed
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to countries already that trump is saying in his national defense strategy he doesn't want us visiting
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with uh and so our policy as canadians under one leadership might come under question heavier than
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ever heavier definitely than in the last 10 years we've seen and it's really the time where the
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conservative party it could be theirs to lose again well remember so we're maybe or potentially a few
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short months from another election absolutely you know because you have budgets coming up again and
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so you have the whole uh session starting again budget starting again you have all that and will
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given this climate he'll be able to get the votes to get it passed and when it happened before so the
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last budget was kind of like let let it pass and we'll wait and see how he does since then though
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yeah okay christian freeland stepped aside it's going to be a by-election yeah there's already been a
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number of mps who have come forward saying they've been recruited ndp and conservatives and they said
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thanks but no thanks right yes so that has to tell you that carney and the liberals aren't convinced
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they'll get another vote through yeah the backdoor dealing i think is over for uh control um in
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parliament i wonder and it's funny paul you bring this point up i wonder with all of these uh scrutinies
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being placed on the budget suddenly we got a new budget the budget was completely different than
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one we've seen historically in canada i think even the experts have just finished digesting that
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we've then seen what moves carney has made and will they align with the budget that he presented us
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if not you're right he could be really under a lot of pressure it already does there could be a vote
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of non-confidence yeah it already doesn't right the fact that venezuela now is under control of the u.s
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puts major pressure on what to do with the oil and gas yeah um and what to do with resources
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there's been a number of announcements you know we're doing another show on it so i won't
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circumvent the show but uh there's a number of announcements came out of major resource fines
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so a lot of countries are ahead of us on the resource development side and now we're planning to
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catch up and they're jumping right whether it be china or whether it be gold or lithium their
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discovery to mining uh timeline is so drastically different than ours because we have such net net
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zero and so much red tape to to cut through yes australia uh many euro countries that are are just
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making discoveries right now china is absolutely killing it with gold at the moment right and
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they're just getting into the ground exactly so you know we have some decisions to make because
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we're either going to be in that market or in a big way and compete or we're not or we're going to
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be too late to the party and that's not going to be part of the equation so those are all the things
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he's got now that we didn't have in the last election and that's such a short period you think
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about it the number of announcements since the election the venezuela as you mentioned and the
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invasion by the u.s all these things weren't even there so now as if i'm going to the convention i'm the
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conservative party i'm now sitting down and saying okay time out how much do these things mean am i
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going to micromanage the policies here so i you know and i'm not i'm not calling them when i say micro
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i don't mean they're small in the fact that to people's lives but in the big picture of things
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i think people are going to want to know what we're going to do on the global stage and how we're going
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to compete before they're worried about affordable housing and you know not that you know you really
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you're right the focus suddenly just changed dramatically yeah so you know how do we keep
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our sovereignty how do we uh start to compete globally these really become matters to everyday
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canadians so you yeah mike you're at the inner circle of the convention and you turn to paul one of
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the power brokers and you say let's be honest if the election happened and paul he had won could he
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handle trump in the current climate we are in the world that's the question because it was before
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tariffs and that now we're looking at whomever is voted and decided that they should be the next
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leader the conservatives because we believe if they're elected prime minister they are best capable
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of handling trump and what's going on in the world right now let me ask you this question in response
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do you think that pierre polyev could switch from cheeky combative mode to uh diplomatic
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world leader mode no and if he doesn't how much does trump like a cheeky leader and we've seen this
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a couple of times now zelinski being one of them so the risk to canada is that the personality doesn't
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match with trump and sadly that makes a huge difference and and personality is matching and still being able to
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to be forceful and maintain your position with trump that's a real skill that i don't think we're
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seeing mastered by many yeah like paul you mentioned it in a few shows we were stunned i was stunned that
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when he came back to the house of commons after being re-elected he didn't change no the theatrics were
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the same it was still high school juvenile tactics and i think a lot of people went oh no he didn't learn
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a thing so how why you know this is the big question in a couple weeks okay so we've justified
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it there's probably a chance there's at least a chance that yeah the leadership review uh comes back
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uh and and votes down polyev and then we go to a leadership election um so now abacus takes one step
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further and they take this uh poll and they ask people okay if not polyev who do you think would
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be the best leader for the conservative party in canada and uh the top five some of them not not
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that big a surprise number one with 34 percent would never take the position i don't believe
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stephen harper no people still have love in their heart for stephen harper in a big way yeah
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yeah yeah well you know stable uh quiet statesman statesman yeah you know not overstated didn't
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over speak no theatrics controlled the media very well you know wasn't out there flamboyantly waving
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around and uh people people like them and and success and a record of success you know that that
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the truth when the economy grows and the productivity grows oil flows all those things happen people are
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happy but paul from your background in economics and finance he had the brains to delegate to jim
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flarity oh yeah and and they made a nice team yeah they did they did a very good team their strengths
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were totally different and and that's what made you know the country a success at the time but a very
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understated success there wasn't a lot of theatrics and the stability was really you know i have to say
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part of that era was it was just stable the federal government was there they're doing their thing they
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were paving the way they were finding ways to you know get things and and lubricate the skid so
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things moved along and and your life was a lot easier the red tape was not there now on that note
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stephen harper alongside a trump or a macron or anybody uh on the world stage i think is met with
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probably a more calm more reasonable once again stephen harper if you want to consider it go right
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ahead but uh you you're certainly in the lead in popularity according to this poll uh number two
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is worth discussion among all of us as we have speculated this as a group for some time doug ford
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31 percent um jason kenny 30 carolyn mulrooney uh 29 and michelle rumple garner at 28 percent uh if you
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wanted to go beyond that tim houston mark mulrooney around 27 percent each so having said that
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the real number one on this list according to canadians would be doug ford yeah yeah yeah well
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you know loved by the people for sure you know not without some words uh but loved by the people
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yeah and uh you know had some challenges definitely on certain files that have come back to bite him a
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couple times in ontario but the people have forgiven him um and he's got a you know the popular vote in
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ontario is very high it's it's you just nailed it right there paul in a nutshell despite all his
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pitfalls despite controversy despite how he's perceived him everyone says i hate him three straight
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majorities yeah they love the party right they love the party and they they like kind of the the
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folksy manner with which he conducts himself and you know being forgiving of someone who once in a
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while says well i don't get it right i go back and try it again so he and that's it's what he's told
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the people the people are fine with it uh but you if i'm federally the conservatives and i see his
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success in ontario and ontario is the key to the next federal election i can see why they're thinking
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long and hard about it well i would imagine that it's so funny because his uh convention and the
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federal convention are right on top of each other so he won't even he won't visit calgary i'm sure or
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have anything to do with that um do you think do you think that his lack of presence at the convention
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uh sort of signifies i'm i'm not in the i'm not in the race no no a lot of times the premiers don't
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go to the convention but one of the things it does cause a challenge for it pulls a bunch of
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people who might have gone uh to make a decision i'm going to go to his or i'm going to go to calgary
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so it does pull some people away uh which maybe that is the deciding vote maybe that is one of the
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strategy what is it and hey i'm not going to rock the boat he could say well i stayed away
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the people want me what can i do yeah like so now his hands are clean like well i didn't go there
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they have they asked for me yeah it wouldn't shock me now i i ask you this question that we've kind of
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put everybody the same lens that we put in front of everybody how does he do uh in a federal election
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against carney and how does he do if elected with the global stage in your opinion he would do well
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in small town rural canada in the west in ontario the big cities uh the inner cities it would be a
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struggle i mean it doesn't really matter who the leader is those key liberal writings in central
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montreal toronto big cities like that they're going to go to the liberal leader yeah but can he get
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enough of the other writings in the maritimes will it play well in the maritime i think he plays well in
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the maritimes to be honest with you i think that same folksy i think he would well and if he doesn't
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do what pauliev does and starts the election by garnering the support of tim houston and scott mole
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and all the other premiers and get behind it and have that support that could make a big difference
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i mean ford nation right right seriously well the premier conferences and having him as the lead has
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been a a big a big boost for him personally with them because they're seeing him as a leader of the
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group they're seeing building relationships he's building all those relationships he has time to
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have dinner with them yeah so it's been a smart move i think you know putting that together and
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getting them to meet so frequently uh has been has been good for him if that is something he wants to do
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and he's been quiet about it you haven't heard much so which tells me that that you know if he's quiet
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about it and we haven't heard much that tells me that maybe something's being worked on behind the
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scenes well and purposely everything's the lids being kept on there didn't you guys just say to
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me before the show cory tenecki's headed west uh yes he is yeah yeah yeah that sounds like a shoring
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up to me well it sure helps right so if you help the conservative leader in bc yeah you get some more
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votes and you turn the tide definitely helpful if he comes through because that's just another feather in
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his cap so smart move uh they're you know those two are very tight uh they were and had a lot of
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success together but they've had a lot of success and i think they understand that they need to do
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better uh in bc so yeah it's a good move it'll be fascinating because there has to be other people
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around the country even looking at objectively even if you don't care where the poly of wins or not
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if he didn't change after losing and is basically the same person it was the definition of insanity
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doing the same thing expecting a different result it'd be pretty weird to see a different poly up to
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that point though right wouldn't you be like what what if he said like hey i i lost i'm humbled
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you know that happens to people after they lose i've got to take a new tax i'm taking you know
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and maybe he'd be perceived differently but there's no reason to perceive him differently
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well but can i throw and i'm gonna add a component sure so part of the importance of the upcoming
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few days is that the membership has to provide him direction and guidance for him to go forward so
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i think what's important for them as a conservative party is they need to sit down and they need to talk
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about that i agree because you know sometimes it got criticized for being too tough you know too
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too militant you know looking too serious and so they have to say to him you know we want a softer
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or quite frankly you know given the times we might want you to go harder yeah right we might want you to
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be more aggressive now because canadians need that strength and it do they feel that there's a gap and
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that they need to be more aggressive uh to take leadership to to win an election and that's something
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that they have to share and and the the board and the membership have to vote on and and whether or
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not he gets an overwhelming vote whether he gets uh you know just eats by uh whether or not they think
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that they want him to stay or not after they're done all said and done if he does stay they really
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have to give him some guidance because i i think a little bit um where he got put in the middle is he
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came up with an approach people were going to rallies supporting those rallies pushing him
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forward rah rah rah but they weren't voting like they were there you know that that's it didn't
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translate to see translate to seats right and they did a lot better so i give them that you know they
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got way more seats well they did great in the places where they really reached out to the community
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really reached out to community right but but is that going to resonate and given the change of
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climate is it going to resonate more now or less now that's really going to make this and that is
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the you know we can we can look to him to say it's all on him but really is it is the membership and
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the committee that really has to give them that guidance because that decision that they make to push
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that forward will decide the future of the party that will decide it's such a brilliant point
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in your part think about the transition from the liberals dead in the water yep trudeau leaves
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incomes carney they make a decision we're going to go elbows up team canada and they won the election
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and they all stuck to it yeah with really a pr campaign right and that was totally appeared with
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this crazy thing about that with mike myers and all the commercial yeah they got totally away from
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policy yeah i don't think any of us had heard mark carney's voice to be honest with you and then
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he said commercials yeah he said stephen colbert well and you know i'm sitting having dinner with
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people and they're saying to me well you know he was a good business person so we should let him lead
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and i'm like but i want to hear his policies i don't want to hear that all i just want to hear what
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we're going to do but you wonder how you want a popular vote that way it's wild but the liberals had a
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plan to paul's point and they stuck to it let's do it but that's gone see here's the here's the
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interesting dynamic in this which the conservative party i don't know if they're going to focus on
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they don't have any idea but if i'm sitting in their shoes i would i'm like okay that was then
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that was the climate we're in we're in a new climate now wherever so our approach and whoever
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takes the right approach on this one for canadians how they're feeling will win if an election is
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triggered in the spring all i can think is she must not want to do it at all because the one
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name that's not on this list i noticed is daniel smith and i was wearing my calgary jacket
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i was like you have out there you go to cowboys later i hope i see daniel smith and i hope we get
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an interview so i wore my jacket and yeah well you know what at the very least you should be campaign
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managing for her uh but it's interesting to me because she has done uh so much on the west coast
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for not just creating an identity but creating a sort of a protection around an entire province
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dealing directly with the u.s on on you know uh clever terms as best she can and really uh kind
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of representing canada as one of the more stable voices but would she play in eastern canada would she
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i don't know would she get enough support in ontario and eastern canada to win an election
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that's the hard question that has to be asked well she's nothing against her but you have to think
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realistically would she get enough seats well i think she communicates better than almost any party
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leader that i've seen in a long time on her feet love him or hate him doug ford has got a way to connect
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to the average person that we've not seen in canadian politics in a long time now i can see that
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what i could see also is both doug ford and in in the opposition uh moment of this i could see both
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of them dealing well with whatever prime minister is in place and whatever government is in front of
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them they both tend to have a desire to get to the table and get things done so it just it's
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ford had mark carney to his house for dr cottage and they had a barbecue so yeah that would be they
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would get along well so i think that it just shocked me a little bit that i guess danielle
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smith has no desire there's no rumbling she's made well no bones about no rumors ever so carolyn
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mulroney yeah but not danielle smith which to me is i find that bizarre well she's fluently bilingual
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carolyn mulroney and she has the mulroney legacy the brand the brand so the brand and the fact she's
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fluently bilingual that's one reason the name is being mentioned yeah it's you i mean you have
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to win some seats in quebec i would say but the other thing is i don't know that brand name means all
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that much uh in in this scenario now i think you're right we're in a different you know we're
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in a different different atmosphere globally certainly nationally we're watching over a budget
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that's leaving people unable to feed themselves unable to get into a home all of these issues that
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we have and at the same time i think what we want is somebody with a policy well and you know look at
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the position she's in right now so it's very interesting alberta's in this middle position
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right now with venezuela and the oil production coming and everything happening and you know the
00:25:30.660
fact that he's going to look at columbia and cuba and all these places so now if i'm sitting in their
00:25:37.380
shoes i'm thinking to myself i need an opinion on what we're going to do here or maybe i have to go
00:25:43.380
up so if you're daniel smith yeah maybe i have to go up like if i'm sitting here i'm no one wants to
00:25:49.940
be a sitting duck right so either they have to move or but if she can kind of deal with that memorandum
0.99
00:25:57.060
of understanding with carney and get the pipeline to the bc coast does that save her job well it's
00:26:02.420
interesting because i don't know if you noticed today before he flew to china he went and met with
00:26:07.940
the coastal right first nations yes right so i think he understands that also i think he understands
00:26:15.700
the fact that he's got to cut a deal keep her at bay and the last thing he wants is her either going
00:26:22.980
up trying to come up because she has nowhere to go you know the the province she has somewhere to go
1.00
00:26:28.500
but i mean the province is stuck it keeps them happy keeps well it gets a deal done and they sort
00:26:33.700
of secures them from you know saying to her we need you to run because quite frankly if pierre doesn't
00:26:40.820
get the nod um if you don't we're going to be foobarred and she goes up to get it done she goes up and
00:26:47.460
tries and which then that becomes kind of a tough race because then if you have potentially doug ford and
00:26:54.420
her and they're both coming up and they're both coming across the worst thing that can happen to
00:26:59.780
carney is they co-join yes so they decide to kind of enter into a kind of a one-two relationship and
00:27:08.900
because they do like each other they get along well yeah yeah they seem to get along well at the
00:27:12.820
premier's events they're in you know on camera they seem to get along well so quite frankly and
00:27:18.500
it does if carney gets that resolved the the you know the coastal first nations
00:27:25.780
quite frankly are one of those groups that should be fairly easy to deal with and dan mctagg on one
00:27:31.700
of her earlier shows he did say that the prime minister has executive powers that he can override
00:27:37.780
eb and if he has a deal with the coastal first nations and he has the memorandum of understanding the
00:27:43.300
pipeline will get built and then get to the markets of indonesia and japan and south korea who
00:27:48.260
are begging for our oil right yeah which now is the time if you're gonna go because if you don't
00:27:54.740
do that there's no way he can go to this spring without something in the bay no we definitely made
00:27:59.300
a major project online by the time that has to be resolved so you know he's got a few months left
00:28:07.380
you know we're in january now so he's you know he's skating because he's got to get there and he's
00:28:12.900
got to get that resolved if he doesn't get a resolve and it gets to uh budget time election
00:28:17.860
happens and people are going to say well you didn't you just didn't get those issues off the
00:28:22.260
table your major projects really were stuff that was happening anyways he's going to get a lot of
00:28:27.060
criticism he so i think he saw that today as a key and why would you fly to bc before flying to
00:28:36.500
you wouldn't take the time no he really made a round trip basically to do that and i think this is
00:28:42.420
where we and you've talked about it both you gentlemen that mark carney this is being in high
00:28:48.660
finance and hedge funds and the head of a bank for four decades understanding this has to happen to
00:28:54.900
get this done and then this and then you get that that that that's that's a pretty shrewd move in his
00:29:00.420
part you know the uh the one thing that i will say about looking for the right leader for the
00:29:05.940
conservative party is i think whoever it is really does need to be working uh in lockstep with whomever
00:29:13.620
is in power and if they if we have to get a conservative government they need to be ready
00:29:18.740
to work in lockstep with all of the areas in canada that are uh you know polarized politically because
00:29:26.820
now that is what canadians want i think that we're less polarized than ever have you noticed guys as we do
00:29:33.060
these shows yeah we seem to be coming closer and closer and closer to consensus of common sense
00:29:40.340
and i think that's where canadians that's why we get the response that we get because
00:29:44.660
we're having discussions that are in line with the common sense discussions canadians are having
00:29:49.780
every day about what we should be doing next in this country and mike i mean every day you're seeing a
00:29:54.580
story venezuela what's happening in iran all these other countries we're like we have to protect what we
00:30:00.660
have we you say the consensus let's let's do something let's have win-win deals break down
00:30:08.100
provincial trade barriers let's get pipeline get stuff built and help each other well i think if
00:30:14.100
that's not happening by the spring then we are really down the barrel elections so yeah you know
00:30:19.140
it'll be interesting to see what happens i think that you're right paul a new set of policies and
00:30:24.900
approaches have to come out of this convention at the federal level for the conservative at least
00:30:29.060
at the very least at the very least uh and i've got it you're going to write in daniel smith on the
00:30:33.380
ballot yourself um spolumbo's fine foods and deli in calgary former cfl lineman johnny spolumbo
00:30:40.900
and it's his mom's italian from the old country sugo recipe and it's some great deli sandwiches so
00:30:47.060
when you guys are at the convention spolumbo's fine food yeah good guy in the room okay and something
00:30:54.020
duly noted we'll say that you sent us yeah yeah i show respect look we'll see you from calgary
00:30:58.420
between here and there don't forget to subscribe to tplmedia.ca and the app oh download the app it's
00:31:05.220
beautiful it's for the iphone and for android yeah and so you can't argue over that you can both have
00:31:10.100
the app uh thanks guys i appreciate it thank you thank you