True Patriot Love - Could Carney’s Majority Backfire？

00:00:00.000 Hi, and thanks for joining us. I'm Mike Wixson, and this is TPL Media. Thanks for joining us.

00:00:09.360 Subscribe, tell a friend, spread the word. I'll be joined today by Paul Micucci, and we are talking

00:00:14.540 about the by-elections going on in Canada. Paul, if you don't mind, I want to share this with you.

00:00:20.500 This is notes from our very own, one of our producers, Christophe. Here it is, a memo to me.

00:00:26.740 On April 13th, that's today, Mike, Canadians vote in three federal by-elections.

00:00:31.860 At face value, they fill vacant seats in Scarborough Southwest, University, Rosedale, and Trebon.

00:00:37.440 And, uh, Terbon, sorry.

00:00:40.180 Uh, I always say that wrong.

00:00:42.040 In reality, they may determine whether the government of Mark Carney moves from minority rule to one of the most unusual majority governments in Canadian history.

00:00:50.760 I love his notes.

00:00:51.980 Yeah.

00:00:52.100 the liberals currently hold 171 seats a majority requires 172 as reported by the toronto star

00:00:58.800 winning all three would technically deliver that majority both with limits the liberal government

00:01:03.520 currently has 171 seats winning all three by elections could give them that majority but it

00:01:09.500 would not allow them to limit debate or force their agenda through which i think is everybody's

00:01:15.380 concern now i i'll give you my response to him uh christoph this is not a simple vote it's a

00:01:21.080 structural constitutional test of Canada's parliamentary system. And as, if you follow

00:01:26.560 us just for a few minutes on this one, the question is who will actually be running the

00:01:31.160 country and more importantly, who will lose power in the process? And that's our discussion today.

00:01:38.480 Yeah. And, you know, Mike, and he gave me the same thing. And thanks to Christophe too. He gave me

00:01:42.920 some quotes for today, which are very interesting. And I had the one from Toronto Star, but CBC News

00:01:48.440 had one of the most unique majorities in canadian political history cobbled together yeah yeah of

00:01:55.160 course this was like all three we had uh the natural election process we had walking across

00:02:00.920 the floor and we have by elections which very seldom do we see anything like this i don't think

00:02:05.640 we have um pierre pauliev of course you know he came out a couple times backroom deals to seize

00:02:12.920 majority voters rejected and of course ipsos from the polling perspective you know my thoughts on

00:02:19.240 polling yeah 62 opposed party switching 69 want to buy election when this happens when they walk

00:02:29.360 across the floor and then laura stevenson focused on helping canada survive the economic turmoil

00:02:35.700 oh that's a very interesting one so that's kind of the party line right you know yeah we're doing

00:02:41.340 this to save canada yeah you know we're making moves because you know if we don't have majority

00:02:46.840 we can't make those moves fast enough um and things will will stall and and not go forward so

00:02:53.720 you're right yeah now interesting in the by-elections it mike you got some really

00:02:58.420 interesting ones happening and we'll start with kind of the more sure ones you know you had bill

00:03:02.920 blair stepped down in scarborough southwest you had dolly begum which stepped up uh originally

00:03:08.960 from bangladesh uh born in uh there moved to toronto with her family uh ran as an mpp uh as

00:03:16.840 the nd from the ndp party and then so went provincially now is coming back to run uh in

00:03:24.000 that riding federally so and she's against diana uh filipova yeah which is a very interesting one

00:03:31.140 so that one quite frankly now that's a liberal neighborhood historic in the last it is several

00:03:36.740 actually decades now that's been a primarily liberal neighborhood the danforth and quite

00:03:41.360 frankly a lot of europeans who originally came to canada you know the liberal party known for

00:03:47.120 the eastern european vote you know people who came to canada you know my family originally

00:03:52.100 everyone uh they were brought here under liberal immigration policies so they traditionally stayed

00:03:59.480 a liberal riding a liberal vote on the federal side because of their love of the trudeau family

00:04:05.360 is really what that was um university rosedale i think uh jim lang on a bunch of shows keep saying

00:04:13.020 that he could run a watermelon in this one and win from a liberal perspective so he wouldn't

00:04:17.940 even need anyone i noticed it was interesting over the weekend uh the prime minister uh was

00:04:24.720 actually in that riding i saw that yeah came in and did a little bit of a road show with daniel

00:04:30.660 Martin um you know Don Hutch an old politician older politician's been around for a while he's

00:04:37.000 running not sure how well he'll do uh but I think that almost seemed like a placeholder in that

00:04:42.300 yeah I think he's put his uh hat in the ring and then of course a very interesting one in

00:04:47.540 which you mentioned in Quebec uh Tatiana Auguste and uh Natalie uh Desguignon and so interesting

00:04:57.760 one you kind of have a homegrown young lady on the block quebec side who was born in france grew 1.00

00:05:04.520 up in quebec against a new immigrant haitian lady who came in and uh is running against her

00:05:11.740 on the liberal side so they're playing uh the new immigrant haitian uh vote side against sort of the

00:05:20.340 homegrown so conservatives don't uh have a pony in that race they do uh adrian charles yeah you

00:05:27.420 You know, we'll see how she does.

00:05:28.840 But that, you know, that seems like a neck and neck between the two parties.

00:05:32.240 So of the three by-elections we have today, one of them is kind of interesting and might show up on one of the betting sites.

00:05:39.200 Otherwise, you know, pretty much a clear cut by-election, which, of course, then puts the liberals in a majority position.

00:05:47.380 And it's interesting because our conversations, first of all, one of the things that you pointed out to me before we started this initially was,

00:05:54.600 By the way, don't forget, a lot of people got pushed out of the way for these by-elections.

00:05:59.160 Chris Sear-Freeland, Bill Blair, all of these people that might have given any friction to Carney at the moment that he took power were quickly shuffled.

00:06:10.080 And that's why we have these by-elections.

00:06:12.420 And then, of course, we've got these floor crossings.

00:06:15.220 And let's just address that for a minute.

00:06:16.940 Because, as you know, I just came back from the liberal convention where our other TPL contributor, Brady Wedham, was baptized a liberal.

00:06:27.500 I don't know if you saw that photo.

00:06:29.620 He's going to kill me for saying that.

00:06:31.480 But it was a very interesting experience. 1.00

00:06:34.840 We had a problem with one of the floor crossers really tainting the convention. 1.00

00:06:42.500 A convention that, by the way, was well attended. 1.00

00:06:44.860 we went to the conservative convention in alberta it was a very different scenario here

00:06:49.260 that i feel like they have a lot to celebrate there was a lot of protesting there was a lot

00:06:53.700 of political activity in montreal this weekend but gladu marilyn gladu really shook things up

00:07:01.160 by just demonstrating to the liberals what a wild move that was and a lot of the feedback that we

00:07:08.680 were hearing the next day of course saturday on friday she started talking about uh you know she

00:07:14.720 was held to task on her previous positions on things like abortion and many topics she really 0.97

00:07:22.880 she really left a stink in the room for saturday i promise you that it was a toned down version of

00:07:27.900 the liberals that day yeah but this is just an example to the liberals of okay hold on we invited

00:07:33.560 they call it the big tent we've invited this conservative who had all of these opinions that

00:07:38.280 our contrary to ours into our big tent that was notable oh yeah well now you have you know it's

00:07:45.620 interesting because you don't have an overwhelming majority yeah so you know you need 172 to get a

00:07:51.060 majority you know even if they get all three they're going to end up at 174 maybe they don't

00:07:55.720 get all three they're going to end up at 173 so now you need the consensus of a gladu or a michael

00:08:03.660 may uh you know to be to get anything exactly so you're you're shifting power right politics is

00:08:11.440 power so how are liberal voters going to feel when a bill is being held up that is near and dear to

00:08:18.320 the liberal heart and michael my is the dissenting vote or uh marilyn gladu and a couple of other

00:08:26.660 people more conservative in the group how are liberal voters going to feel on that day oh

00:08:32.260 they're not going to feel feel good and quite frankly you've cleaned up so we've talked about

00:08:36.300 it on previous shows and you mentioned it too you've cleaned up your caucus you've cleaned up

00:08:40.680 your cabinet you've cleaned up everyone some asked some people to leave that you thought may

00:08:45.760 probably hinder your ability to get people to cross yeah so they did that i think strategically

00:08:51.100 it was a good idea he did uh very efficiently he gave them other posts he moved them off

00:08:55.840 not a lot of scuttlebutt not a lot i think he gave the ukraine in its entirety to christian

00:09:00.800 Freeland. Yeah, pretty much. And then Bill Blair went to the UK and, you know, got a castle. And

00:09:07.640 right now, the only one who sits there is Stephen Gubo. And he's still, I think, waiting to end his

00:09:15.460 political career. Not the happiest guy, probably sitting on the left far end spectrum of the party.

00:09:21.200 But, you know, so now you have a different mix. But now you're kind of at the whim of answering

00:09:27.180 questions and making sure previous conservative party members are happy so whatever you put on

00:09:33.620 the floor and you have a lot of bills like we we took a look at actually the number of bills mike

00:09:38.420 so let you know let's kind of walk through what could happen today so if we if what happens is

00:09:45.840 what we just talked about they get a majority then from there they can start to move legislation

00:09:51.980 quicker so they can change the composition of committees they can now move bills that they're

00:09:58.740 interested in and they have authored they can move them to the front and move them through

00:10:03.140 right because they've changed the committee if they can keep the votes moving

00:10:08.360 and and if they have the same 173 or 174 seats they pretty much have to get all those votes

00:10:17.480 so if they have any dissension within they're not going to get them moving this is where

00:10:21.380 cobbling together a majority is is a dangerous position suddenly you're hurting kittens within

00:10:26.420 your own caucus now but think about so think about some of the things we're going to be talking about

00:10:30.500 so right now i took a look on the list and there's three pages let's say there's a hundred bills

00:10:35.860 sitting and waiting so they're uh they deal with immigration they deal with energy um they deal

00:10:42.580 with housing they deal with affordability like they deal with each of the key pillars that we

00:10:47.780 talk about almost a safety criminal code all those things they they deal with all the key issues

00:10:53.700 they're not necessarily uh supported you know the the liberal the traditional liberal view for

00:11:02.080 example and conservative view on crime is way different yeah right so now you have you know

00:11:09.380 uh you know jail and bail differences you have criminal code differences i was going to say just

00:11:14.740 the bail reform seems to slide right off the table at this moment. Right. They're not immigration

00:11:20.340 reform on crime slides off the table. So take it, you know, and I hate to use this as an example,

00:11:25.840 but let's throw it on the table. So I'm sitting in, you know, so let's take, we're just talking

00:11:30.060 about Marilyn Gladue. So quite frankly, she's sitting down in Sarnia and a new immigrant goes 1.00

00:11:36.560 out and harms or hurts or kills one of her constituents. Well, her constituents are 1.00

00:11:43.920 for somebody who's going to have a different stance on crime who is a repeat offender yeah

00:11:48.240 and quite frankly the liberal stance on that is significantly different than the conservatives

00:11:52.340 100 that's a great example that is a big divide in pure poly of and mark carney right now so now

00:11:57.480 she's sitting there and she's like okay like you know what do i do now because now i'm definitely

00:12:03.760 done no they traditionally when they walk across the floor they don't have a good shot at being

00:12:08.300 re-elected anyway but now you're really done right and now that brings to light a whole bunch

00:12:13.440 issues which was quite frankly that was one of the big gaps you saw in the u.s for those of you

00:12:18.240 you know who went through watched the u.s elections and and the run uh run up you know donald trump

00:12:25.280 that that was a huge issue that he brought to bear and brought to the table against biden right it was

00:12:30.900 the fact that their stance on crime was so different their stance on immigration was way

00:12:36.260 different well we're seeing castle law in canada continually be the discussion now if that falls

00:12:42.300 out of discussion in certain ridings now

00:12:45.800 because they have a liberal rather than a conservative.

00:12:48.540 Well, I'll be honest with you, Paul.

00:12:50.000 Even at the liberal convention,

00:12:52.160 many of the people we spoke to

00:12:53.300 were horrified with the floor crossings

00:12:55.820 because they're getting people they don't want necessarily,

00:12:59.260 people they didn't bargain for,

00:13:01.060 people that are not necessarily specialists

00:13:03.000 in an area where the government needs to focus right now.

00:13:05.600 That was palpable.

00:13:07.120 Oh, yeah. No, it is.

00:13:08.180 And, you know, as we are seeing from the Iran war,

00:13:11.380 life is dynamic so it just doesn't stop with you know a vote or something you want to put forward

00:13:17.080 the war is happening uh energy look at our look at the two parties difference in energy policy

00:13:23.440 exactly it's holy cow you couldn't you you couldn't get a wider divide now carney is coming

00:13:28.900 closer to the center on that because of necessity and you know the current situation in the world

00:13:34.800 is really illustrating to us what we need to get back to doing something we need to do something

00:13:39.200 for the economy and manufacturing and we need to get into our resources and we need to start to

00:13:44.060 quicken this process i think we're hearing that story now more than we have however the conservatives

00:13:50.620 are like you say a very different stance on it oh yeah and there's uh there's there's uh uh

00:13:56.980 provinces quebec and alberta that are going to see this as a sever moment well yeah so think about it

00:14:05.420 So if you're with the block, right now you have a seat at the decision table.

00:14:11.880 So when a vote happens, you get to come forward.

00:14:14.140 In committee, you get to put together.

00:14:16.040 Your members sit on committee.

00:14:17.580 They get to make comments.

00:14:18.980 They need to structure bills.

00:14:20.580 They're involved in the process.

00:14:23.000 Majority happens, they get removed off the committees.

00:14:25.840 So committee restructuring, they're all gone.

00:14:27.900 New committee members come in.

00:14:29.280 Quite frankly, you control all the committees because you have majority.

00:14:32.440 so now all the committees you're not at the decision table uh you know the the gentleman

00:14:39.300 his name's escaping me uh who is running for the provincial seat which is up in october

00:14:45.640 already wants separation the in in quebec yeah christophe young guy what's that sorry yeah you

00:14:52.040 give me the name plan don't nom i always forget to say yeah pierre said plan planned on nom but

00:14:57.800 it's with the party quebecois so he's actually picking up a lot of he's picking up a huge amount

00:15:03.300 of steam actually he's the front runner so now he's going to use this to his advantage so if

00:15:08.160 i'm sitting in his shoes he'd say look at look at your federal government right we no longer have

00:15:14.540 any we don't have any seat at the table they've obviously stacked the government they're they've

00:15:19.640 threw this cobblestone or cobbling together of government you've created uh no no position at

00:15:26.680 table for quebec so he's going to make that case big time yeah so now that's talking about a

00:15:32.040 referendum that's leading to separation so he's talking about that you know we've talked about

00:15:36.600 it on previous shows with respect to mining and resources and hydroelectricity quebec is

00:15:43.160 uh more key than we ever think now than ever yeah so and and quite frankly we did a show the other

00:15:49.720 day on lithium i know and it's getting a lot of views online if you get a chance watch it

00:15:54.280 Yeah, please do. The response to that was ridiculous.

00:15:57.100 Lithium, with which we need for batteries, especially in our manufacturing of EVs and everything we're talking about in Ontario, Quebec is key.

00:16:07.460 Our relationship with Quebec is key, and what that looks like going forward is key.

00:16:11.800 So there's one that is critical to the future of Canada, which is key.

00:16:17.640 Aluminum, steel, all the mining that we do there.

00:16:20.740 you know even just power when you started with power i was like yeah yeah we really do need to

00:16:26.180 be careful about that becoming an independent business of quebec because what it does for

00:16:31.860 the rest of canada for certainly for the eastern uh those connecting provinces is pretty major

00:16:38.420 so now mike and then what we sell to the us is highly profitable so here's the interesting

00:16:43.620 about this majority which is probably never been seen before in canadian history to this extent

00:16:48.980 it's been seen but not to this extent quebec really are they yeah sure they would like to be

00:16:55.460 at the table they would like to have the the party uh quebecois um and uh at the table they would

00:17:03.780 like um to be represented but or sorry the box the but quite frankly there are going to be saying to

00:17:12.980 to the government now we need a deal regardless of whether it's majority or not to stay we need

00:17:20.040 a deal and then you go west to alberta alberta's going to say the same thing we need a deal we

00:17:25.220 need a deal if we're going to stay yeah because quite frankly you can end up with you know you

00:17:30.260 you're probably going to put the majority tonight but that majority hinges on the two provinces

00:17:36.420 staying within canada and and the mandate just to reiterate both of those party leaders while

00:17:42.820 you know, the hopeful in Quebec and Daniel Smith, both are on the separation kick.

00:17:51.560 This gives a great deal of momentum to them with Canadians. If a majority comes in

00:17:57.500 and they're not getting anywhere with the government, there's no deal being made pre-referendum

00:18:01.820 in the West. We have new power in the province in Quebec. There's going to be a lot of attention

00:18:09.060 on separatism in this country and it's going to be squarely blamed on this arrangement right now

00:18:14.440 a cobbled government because there's no huge power in it there's no uh massive force behind

00:18:22.580 this majority government and they're made up of you know frankly a few conservatives one of them

00:18:28.920 i think might be the prime minister well yeah i'm just saying no but you know given again life is

00:18:36.340 dynamic so things are changing all the time this issue in iran right that's caused oil to become

00:18:43.000 front and center yeah you know gas prices everything else oil has been so we talked about

00:18:47.400 it almost you know 24 hours a day we sit here and we you know dan mctagg who's been on our show many

00:18:54.200 times you know he's on tv every day going gas is going up you know 15 down three down six so we're

00:19:00.840 we're primarily focused if i'm seeing alberta shoes they're doing well right now you know price

00:19:06.840 price of oil is going up the barrels are increasing the price is increasing everything is good on

00:19:11.960 their side so quite frankly and as a as a demand chip as a bargaining chip their bargaining chip

00:19:17.800 has gone up substantially just by something happening unrelated in the world that they

00:19:22.600 haven't had any impact that's true so timing is everything and the world is dynamic so now

00:19:28.680 you know coming out of this alberto says well it's fine you have majority we're not represented

00:19:34.040 we're primarily conservative cut us a deal yeah like how are we that's how it feels how are we at

00:19:40.600 the table now and then it feels like there could be more blockage than carney has bargained for to

00:19:47.640 be honest with you with this arrangement getting a majority seemed to be the primary focus but

00:19:52.520 now there's other challenges well i think you got it quickly now now you got to quickly get across

00:19:57.800 and have a discussion with those two provinces, figure out a deal, hopefully that makes them happy

00:20:04.320 and keeps them sort of on side with the direction of the country, and then come back to your own

00:20:10.820 internal party, which is now, for the most part, you have a few people have a lot of leverage.

00:20:17.000 You've given a small group within your party, almost like American politics. It's interesting

00:20:24.700 how this turns out american politics you know you have these uh small caucuses or small groups of

00:20:31.580 people that can actually have power to block so if at any point in time these former conservatives

00:20:38.900 get together and actually form a block they barge together yeah they can they can call your shots

00:20:46.240 they negotiate with each other okay if you block this i'll block that if you you know yeah so then

00:20:51.420 then they can block whatever bill they want because they have the same theoretical background,

00:20:56.440 theoretical thinking. So that's the risk you take. The risk you take is you bring them into the party

00:21:01.200 and then they form factions within your party. Those factions became voting blocks. And because

00:21:06.160 you're so close to a majority, you still can't pass anything. So we have a federal government

00:21:10.720 that's going to be negotiating with two separatist provinces. We're going to have potentially a lot

00:21:17.420 of lockage right in the house because getting a bill through can become um an interpartisan thing

00:21:24.980 um and i think that's the frightening thing to people who voted liberal is that there's

00:21:30.060 a certain amount of conservative now that has flown in they've cobbled together a by-election

00:21:35.160 in some pretty safe uh ridings where they're likely to get this majority but then i you know

00:21:44.480 my first thought was, okay, Mark Carney is going to get this win and he's going to be

00:21:49.820 the road runner out of town for the summer. But if I was him, I'd stick around because he's going

00:21:55.360 to have to do some wheeling and dealing to solidify what he does with this majority government. He's

00:22:00.300 going to have to make some friends now. Well, Piroguing the government, what Christophe,

00:22:04.360 what's that gentleman's name? Okay. Paul St. Pierre Flamondon. Okay. Did I say that right?

00:22:13.860 Say it again.

00:22:18.740 Plamondon.

00:22:20.980 PSPP.

00:22:21.860 Oh, okay.

00:22:22.480 All right.

00:22:23.120 Thank goodness for acronyms.

00:22:25.580 Thank you, CS.

00:22:26.880 Yeah.

00:22:27.380 But, you know, this gentleman gets elected, Parti Quebecois.

00:22:30.440 He gets elected in October.

00:22:32.000 So you have a very short period. 0.98

00:22:33.700 You have the young lady who just took Legault's spot, right?

00:22:37.680 And quite frankly, she's in for six months and probably going to be removed.

00:22:42.080 the parti quebecois is yet a very separatist uh platform and if they're voted through that's where

00:22:50.220 they're going so you're going to then be dealing with that head on by the fall um the government

00:22:55.500 for the most part this is where you know and i know people know this but they don't focus on it

00:23:00.200 unless they're doing something to do with government they're almost done for the summer

00:23:04.460 yeah naturally so even if they don't prorog i know the other day when that came up i'm thinking

00:23:09.040 And that's kind of a weird discussion.

00:23:10.940 I was trying to think, why would he prorogue?

00:23:13.400 There's no benefit to it?

00:23:14.820 I think it may benefit if he doesn't, if he didn't get majority.

00:23:19.520 So if anything went terribly wrong today and he doesn't get majority for some reason,

00:23:26.460 then I think maybe he'd look at it and say, okay, I got to try to figure out how to get to an election.

00:23:30.420 Oh, please.

00:23:30.980 He's got enough money to get another person.

00:23:33.140 Yeah.

00:23:33.260 None of it. But, you know, he I think we'd have to figure that out or he'd have to figure that out at that point.

00:23:40.940 So I never thought of that. I guess I just thought, oh, we're so sure we're going to win a majority here in this in this government that there's not much that would be prorogued about.

00:23:51.220 Yeah, we're done. Government is done. I think it's the second or third week of June.

00:23:55.860 anyways we're in you know the coming into the middle of april so we got another you know month

00:24:01.840 and a half or two months to go it'll go quick a lot most times they travel for example they'll be

00:24:08.540 he'll be back on the road not a lot will get done they'll do a lot of committee structuring

00:24:12.180 you figure it'll take them at least two or three weeks to reformat committees after this i was

00:24:17.620 going to say there's going to be a whole new group of people sitting in committee on issues that i

00:24:23.960 think kind of sat there before to be honest with you uh he didn't need to address exactly the world

00:24:29.720 you know even today coming in you know you and i saw it you know uh trump and the pope are arguing

00:24:34.240 uh there's blockades in iran there's so many critical issues happening i even if he did focus

00:24:40.800 on new legislation and new committees and everything does he make it by summer break

00:24:46.020 i doubt it so summer break there won't be a lot happen they're off for the summer they don't come

00:24:51.840 back till september october um he's going to be deep into budget time because he's deferred the

00:24:57.900 budget right now so there will be that's what i think his summer is the next story that we get

00:25:02.860 told yeah the well explaining probably the uh budget overruns for this year and then quite

00:25:09.360 frankly talking about what's gonna what's coming up where we're going next but you have to remember

00:25:13.980 in the middle it was our date for kuzma so you also have our date for kuzma you have the budget

00:25:21.580 You have a bunch of stuff when they're finished session anyways.

00:25:25.080 You have all these new government people that you're trying to figure out where they're going to vote.

00:25:29.500 They have all new Liberal members trying to figure out where they sit, what they think.

00:25:33.700 So he's going to take the time to sort of massage that, meet with them, figure out what they can, convince them of his platform in the fall, see where we end up with Kuzma.

00:25:42.880 There's so many things happening.

00:25:44.600 It's a lot.

00:25:45.860 Like, it's a lot.

00:25:46.980 He has a lot to deal with right now.

00:25:49.380 Oh, yeah.

00:25:49.740 Right now.

00:25:50.300 Unbelievable.

00:25:50.700 So I wonder how he gets to the summer with, I think that the, I think the liberal party overall has put themselves in a position to have a very busy summer, frankly.

00:26:03.160 Oh yeah.

00:26:03.560 And I don't know that a summer recess is going to work for them.

00:26:07.820 It worked for them from a perspective of they get time to retool and see where they're at and everything else.

00:26:14.080 Unless, and this is the big, you know, the wild card.

00:26:16.800 Again, the world's really dynamic as far as what we're seeing right now.

00:26:20.300 um things get worse on the gas front yeah so then they're going to have to come back and they're

00:26:26.000 going to have to take some measures and figure that out we were supposed to for major projects

00:26:30.600 just before he leaves he's supposed to announce what's happening with alberta right so we do have

00:26:36.820 this uh you know there's they did relax some of the environmental standards with respect to oil

00:26:43.160 um and that was done in conjunction with the alberta government right which i think the

00:26:47.760 provincial government which was really good so now he's coming up to the deadline where he's

00:26:51.820 got to announce what he's going to do with pipelines which was to be negotiated under

00:26:55.680 the mou up until june so he's got that coming up before he leaves he could postpone that not a good

00:27:02.120 idea to do because quite frankly you already have all the referendum so all the referendum stuff's

00:27:07.480 actually loading up also the alberta is very busy over the summer i was going to say you don't want

00:27:12.620 leave alberta to its own devices over the summer no got stampede albertans get together this is

00:27:19.200 where you're going to get them getting together and coming up with ideas together like but you

00:27:25.240 then possibly now with the blockades everything happening in the world and the disruption with

00:27:30.380 the oil supply you have a very very lucrative alberta oil and gas uh industry yeah growing

00:27:38.440 growing growing and then you have a lot of people looking at it and saying if we don't get our way

00:27:42.380 So, you know, you've got to, again, that's that whole leverage point due to the dynamic oil and gas industry across the world.

00:27:49.660 So let's get timing, timing, timing's not great right now.

00:27:53.140 So, you know, you're getting this majority, but you got issues.

00:27:56.600 And as we just talked about, we have this election coming up in October in Quebec.

00:28:01.140 Yeah.

00:28:02.040 So, you know, in an increasingly challenging world where you remember this is, you know, on our lithium show,

00:28:09.440 we're talking about the fact that today and this is uh as we were coming into this show

00:28:14.720 the u.s has blockaded the ports of iran yeah right so someone said to me what does that mean

00:28:20.160 and i said well what it means quite frankly is china now is in play and they're not going to

00:28:27.040 be happy that the the cutoff of energy to them is going to become significant now they have

00:28:33.100 resources they have reserves and they've done a good job of that although they're saying

00:28:37.320 eight to ten weeks from now they're not going to be happy right and then they have to restock

00:28:43.920 that's another three weeks to do that so so if you know the peace deal fell apart on the weekend

00:28:50.560 right you know this uh two-week ceasefire and a ceasefire is still happening but the they they

00:28:57.020 they talked they didn't reach a deal blockade comes in now so now he's you know they're saying

00:29:02.140 to them okay we really need to negotiate or if we're not negotiating nothing's going in or out

00:29:06.560 so that puts extra pressure on the whole scenario and and quite frankly if in the end of the day

00:29:13.900 they do concede which right now if they do block off imports and exports into iran it does force

00:29:22.100 a potential surrender to the united states and then at that point the united states

00:29:26.640 really controls the region would cause the other option is it doesn't right and china takes a

00:29:35.560 position of defending their current purchase plan right and and and they don't you know gdp is a big

00:29:44.560 deal to china on the world stage right now they don't want to mess with that right you know they

00:29:49.540 have every reason to keep their economy moving the way that it is this is potentially going to

00:29:55.840 draw them in yeah but think about that too mike because then coming back to canada that has all

00:30:01.180 kinds of implications of the things we get from china of course and australia you know lithium for

00:30:06.780 our batteries for all our again it all comes down to key resources and where they come from

00:30:11.980 quebec is instrumental in those key resources so i don't think people realized how much we became

00:30:18.120 co-dependent quebec is very quiet you know you were there when when you and brady were heading

00:30:22.440 to montreal we're in the car we're talking we're having that conversation i know sometimes you know

00:30:28.000 you go to Montreal, you go to different, uh, cities in Quebec. It doesn't look so great.

00:30:32.320 I get it. Right. And you know, it was, is it grade a beautiful? No. It's got so much historic

00:30:38.980 elements to it. A lot needs to be maintained. Yeah. It hasn't been maintained. I think we can

00:30:44.280 say that. And it, it, it feels a little, yeah, it's rundown. So, you know, and that that's

00:30:49.360 unfortunate, but that's what's happened. But I think they're very quiet about their abilities

00:30:54.320 on the mining and resource front on purpose.

00:30:57.380 I think that's one of the things they don't brag about.

00:30:59.600 They're very industrious.

00:31:01.780 They always have been.

00:31:02.840 We did talk about that.

00:31:04.040 The industrious nature of Quebec

00:31:07.240 has floated the boat in Canada many times.

00:31:10.800 And they've also kept, you know,

00:31:12.060 they've kept their identity very, you know,

00:31:14.160 their identity, whether it be, you know,

00:31:15.900 the language, the culture,

00:31:17.500 they've been very staunch

00:31:20.200 in making sure they keep that in case.

00:31:23.180 So they kept that, you know, if one day they do separate, I think they've made the strategic direction to do that.

00:31:30.160 What a position of strength, really, if you think about it, right?

00:31:33.140 Yeah, it really is.

00:31:34.500 Yeah.

00:31:34.800 Yeah.

00:31:35.120 You know, if we do, you know, we're not going to need to integrate in such a way that we survive.

00:31:40.800 Okay, let's see.

00:31:43.120 Just to review, the elections, if you're going to get out there and vote, in the University Rosedale area,

00:31:49.360 You've got Daniel Martin, Don Hodgson, I don't know, that one seems straight away liberal,

00:31:57.300 Dolly Begum, Diana Filippova, and Fatima Chabon.

00:32:03.040 So you've got in Scarborough, Southwest Toronto, once again, another liberal stronghold.

00:32:09.400 And Terrebonne in Quebec, the real battleground, Tatiana Augusta and Adrian Charles,

00:32:15.960 And the Quebec candidate, Bloc Quebecois, was?

00:32:21.620 Was Nathalie Descaneau.

00:32:25.200 Originally from France, I believe.

00:32:26.920 Yes, yeah.

00:32:27.600 Okay.

00:32:27.920 Living in Quebec.

00:32:28.860 Living in Quebec now. 1.00

00:32:30.120 So those are the races. 0.82

00:32:32.000 And I guess what we'll do here is we'll follow up at some point tomorrow

00:32:35.940 with a review of what happened in this.

00:32:38.800 But it looks like the Toronto Ridings will stay liberal.

00:32:41.800 And Turban is the knife fight at the moment.

00:32:44.240 Well, we said, Mike, it's going to be a majority. 1.00

00:32:46.600 I think we're all kind of, we conceded that a few,

00:32:48.740 you know, we all talked about it on shows

00:32:50.820 for the last three or four weeks.

00:32:53.720 It now comes down to what do you do with that majority?

00:32:56.860 How do you keep that majority?

00:32:58.180 And quite frankly, what do you do constitutionally

00:33:00.500 to keep Canada together?

00:33:02.900 Thanks, Paul. I appreciate this.

00:33:04.400 Thanks, Mike.

00:33:11.560 Patriotic means looking up for each other

00:33:14.000 and fixing things together true patriotism is being in a country you love surrounded by people

00:33:20.560 you love and great weather being a patriot is being a part of your community and caring for

00:33:24.720 it it doesn't matter who you are or where you're from patriotism is the one thing we all share

00:33:30.240 it's okay to be critical of government and still be a patriot it's gratitude to your country of

00:33:36.240 course i'm a patriot i'm canadian it's my home well actually true patriot love is the mission

00:33:44.000 Thank you.

True Patriot Love - April 14, 2026

Could Carney’s Majority Backfire？

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