CUSMA July Showdown： Carney vs Trump - Part 1
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Summary
On this episode of True Patriot Love, host Jim Lang sits down with host Paul Blanchard to discuss the negotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the United States, Mexico, Canada and the United Nations.
Transcript
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Today on True Patriot Love, we're going to delve into the negotiations of Kuzma.
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And today I have Jim Lang with me. Welcome, Jim.
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So this has been a controversial conversation that has not just started, you know, in the last two years, Jim.
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Yeah, 1984 was, I think, when NAFTA started, right?
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Yeah, so Free Trade, it was originally called Free Trade with Brian Mulroney and Ronald Reagan.
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And they were shaking hands and singing when Irish eyes were smiling.
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And people in Canada were quite upset with the whole concept of Free Trade.
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And then lo and behold, John Chrétien and Bill Clinton in 1994 finalized the evolution of Free Trade, which is NAFTA.
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Well, yeah, and let's talk about, so personalities a little bit.
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And that's what I wanted to kind of, you know, this is show one out of two or three that we're going to do on Kuzma.
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And I really wanted to focus a little bit of this show on the history of how it started.
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Film actor, did 50 movies, you know, was the governor of California, right?
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You know, he was quite a character, you know, and I think there's so many stories.
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You know, after he got shot and they rushed him to the hospital, he looked up and he said to the surgeon, you know, I hope you're Republican.
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So the guy had a really good sense of humor and Brian Mulroney, you know, equal sense of humor.
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So people, you know, the Cadillac candidate, they used to call him.
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So, you know, the idea of Free Trade and NAFTA really originated, you know, first of all, with Ronald Reagan.
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And Ronald Reagan had a number of policies that did really well for the U.S. and hurt the U.S.
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Still talked about to this day, you know, but left consequences, high deficits, wage inequalities.
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There were some things about Reaganomics that weren't so pretty.
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The world was seeing crazy inflation and interest and all these things happening.
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And he needed to react to probably unprecedented waters, right?
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But he did truthfully believe that free trade between Mexico, Canada, and the United States was the way to go.
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And he was a champion of it until he passed away.
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You know, and I got to tell you, it's a funny thing.
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The thing I remember the most about Ronald Reagan, because living in the States for years, they used to tell this crazy story about how he went to, he loved slippers.
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You see photos of an Air Force One in slippers.
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He went to do a national defense speech, you know, you know, when he sits in the mobile office behind the desk.
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And they shot down by accident on him, and he was wearing bunny slippers.
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But, you know, those were the characters that actually had the vision to create this and to figure out that as North Americans, we needed to work together.
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And real quick, I mean, for people who don't realize it, towards the end of Jimmy Carter's administration in the late 70s, the American economy was in very, very tough shape.
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So their morale, post-Vietnam War, all these Americans held hostage in Tehran.
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As you alluded to, the interest rates are skyrocketing.
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And Reagan basically grabbed the country by the bootstraps and found a way to turn things around.
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Was trying to find ways to get things built, to get the economy going, to make money move back and forth for the betterment of the United States.
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You know, and the Dutchman comes and off the economy goes again.
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He invested the money when no one would with Lee Iacocca and Chrysler.
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They invent the cake car and the minivan, and it saved Chrysler.
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It saved all those manufacturing jobs in Detroit and Windsor.
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Well, you know, and I don't want to leave Mulroney out because, you know, Mulroney takes a little bit of a weird, how do I say it?
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He has a weird part of our history, and I think that's probably the way he went out of government.
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You know, the end of his career was not so great in the fact that, you know, the hotel room and, you know, Fred dissed in the bag of 300,000 and the autobus scandal, right?
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So that kind of dwarfs kind of his legacy a little bit.
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But I think, quite frankly, people forget, you know, he was a true champion of NAFTA and Free Trade.
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He was the one, and the signing, you know, you mentioned to me, Kretchen, who came right after.
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So, you know, it's interesting because Mulroney did a lot of the heavy lifting on it, and then, you know, GST, I think GST was the killer for him.
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I mean, I remember Kretchen saying he was going to get rid of it all these years later.
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But, you know, interesting because that was the thing that was the nail in the coffin politically and then the side scandals that happened after.
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But, you know, did a yeoman's task to get us to where we are today and where we have been.
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And, you know, so then Kretchen and Bill Clinton, who you mentioned earlier, right, step up.
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And the Mexican president, I'm trying to think who it is, it'll come to me in a minute.
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So they step up and they sit down and there was a negotiation between, it was Mulroney and Bush and Salinas who did 14 months of heavy lifting on this, right?
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And then Clinton came in and Clinton's big thing on this one for my member was environment and labor rights.
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So where he was, he was kind of offside with Bush.
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Bush, you know, I think we all remember Bush Senior, right?
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Because Bush Senior war hero pilot, you know, Second World War.
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Former head of the CIA, a millionaire by the age of 40.
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He was kind of one of the few millionaires that people knew and very successful guy, right?
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He made a lot of money and quite frankly, financed his own real run for the Oval Office, right?
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So he did a lot of leg with heavy lifting and then he went out, Bill Clinton comes in and it was interesting.
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So we talked about this before the show, you know, Bush going out, you have Mulroney going out, you have Kretchen come in.
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And thank goodness at that time, which is a very interesting time in the world, that Kretchen and Clinton got along so well.
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So polar opposites, but tight friends, love the gulf together and were really good together doing business.
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They may not run in the same social circles and have the same likes and dislikes in a lot of ways.
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But when it came down to sitting in a boardroom to do business, they were quite good together.
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It's interesting because now you have, you know, a gentleman who's Bill Clinton.
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So I'm going to go sideways for a minute, but I met Bill Clinton years ago.
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So, and I was throwing a party at the Preakness and I had a bunch of governors coming to this party because they all want to come to the Preakness.
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So they're coming to this party and the table that was sitting across the way from me was a bunch of celebrities and rock stars.
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So the first rock star who walks in is Bon Jovi.
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Remember, this is the clubhouse, you know, at Pimlico.
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And they're having, you know, pretty nice wine, champagne.
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This is a big event for those of you who haven't been to a Triple Crown race.
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You know, they just zoom in on this one location.
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And we're at the, we're in the nicest dining room in this place.
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So, you know, we're, I'm hosting this table of people and we're having, you know, drinks and everything.
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All the ladies in the room, psst, psst, psst, psst, psst.
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But Bon Jovi's a pretty laid back guy, you know.
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He goes and sits down and starts to talk, chat with his table.
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Well, and the funny thing is, so, you know, Bon Jovi, of course, a rock star, doesn't do the rounds.
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But Bill Clinton actually went and spoke to everyone in the room.
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And I can't say that I've been tongue-tied too many times in my life.
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The charisma of this guy was so overwhelming that, you know, it took me a minute to get on my feet.
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But, you know, he's just like, he looks into your eyes.
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Remember the famous quote, he would go, I feel your pain?
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And after that to be, it was a project that we had going with the company I was with.
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I went and stayed for a month in Little Rock, Arkansas.
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Met him again in a more casual setting in Little Rock.
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And same thing, like just the room just buzzed, right?
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So, so it's interesting because Chrétien, you know, the other day when he was sitting with Harper and getting, you know, that they were having the conversation.
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It was so nice to see, but, you know, you really, you really realize the struggles of people.
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You know, there's a gentleman, you know, a French Canadian, you know, he was paralyzed on one side.
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You know, he started off, did so well, you know, his background, became prime minister and went on to befriend, you know, at that time, Bill Clinton, you know, no matter, forget his Monica, forget all the stuff about Epstein.
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I mean, you know, he eclipsed all of that and still is probably one of the most popular presidents in the U.S. history, like people still today, you know.
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However, the revelations of the Epstein files is tarnishing his image and legacy.
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I mean, I mean, to go there that many times, it is tarnishing.
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I will say this about Jean Chrétien, who was the little guy from Schoeningen, he is still very respected on Parliament Hill amongst all political parties, and his voice and presence still carries a lot of weight in Canadian politics.
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Well, it doesn't have the baggage of a Bill Clinton.
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But, you know, it's interesting, and to Chrétien, you know, we've talked about it on previous shows, you know, having that ability, which we, you know, coming from Calgary, we talked about the other day.
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A leader has to have the ability to just walk among the common people, to just get out and have a conversation and listen and talk.
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And, you know, both of those guys did, you know.
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He doesn't have to walk around the room, and he doesn't have to care who I am.
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But he took the time to meet everyone, and there's probably 400 people in that room.
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So, you know, those guys, you know, back to NAFTA, they went ahead.
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Now, from 1993 to 2015, NAFTA created over a trillion dollars of trade.
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Tell the story about that, because for the younger people, they probably don't remember the trucks with the symbol.
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Yeah, so after everything happened with NAFTA, when you would do a road trip in Canada, the United States, you would see tractor-trailers, and they all had the three flags.
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Doing trade from Guadalajara all the way up to Oshawa.
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Auto parts, food, agriculture, whatever it was.
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I mean, it was big, big money, big business, logistics, freight forwarding, on and on and on.
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And, you know, he did, you know, I guess a little bit, he did say in previous years that it was.
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So, quite frankly, for years, he had talked through the Obama years that he hated NAFTA, right?
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So, right away, tariffs on steel and aluminum, lumber, and then we do counter tariffs, right?
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I know at some points, Trudeau tried to go down and have break bread and have a conversation.
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He actually, I think, in 2017, I think he reached out to Trump's daughter.
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He tried to get a relationship, I think, with her, who was more kind of his cup of tea.
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And basically tried to make it in through to Trump.
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And so, that was kind of what he was trying to do to kind of form a relationship.
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But, you know, gone were the days of two guys just getting together and having dinner.
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You look at the personalities, and I really wanted to focus on that, because this is really
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And you look at these two guys, they got together, you know, whether it be Kretchen and Clinton,
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you know, the Mexican president always kind of on the sidelines a little bit, quite frankly,
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language bearers, and, you know, never always have their own issues.
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But they got together, and now we get to this era, and we have, you know, you don't see
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But as we found out that Donald Trump would rather hang out with Vladimir Putin than Justin
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Trudeau, Donald Trump would rather hang out with all these other people, because he was,
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we've discovered that Donald Trump is not a reasonable man to negotiate with.
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You mentioned off the air, you mentioned earlier, that Donald Trump came up in the really rough
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70s and 80s of development and building, dealing with the unions.
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It's always attack, you're never wrong, and you're always on the offensive, and you're
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always trying to get something over on the next person in a deal.
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Whereas if you think about Kretchen and Clinton, they were trying to win, but also they were
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smart enough to realize it's okay if the other person has a victory as well, as long as the
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No, well, it's not his negotiating style, and quite frankly, he's also, you know, we've
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talked about it on previous shows, he's also in an environment right now in the U.S. where
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They, you know, he wants to, rah, rah, rah, they're doing well.
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When he came into office, huge deficits, no manufacturing, productivity at its lowest.
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You know, he has, he did have, you know, quite frankly, he has huge drug problems.
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So why not do a deal that benefits America and maybe benefits Canada, Mexico, and other
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countries and quit being such a jerk about it?
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So we go forward and we look at this and we say, okay, now we're here.
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He said he's, you know, personality's not jiving.
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You know, he even, quite frankly, when he, when he addresses our prime minister, he calls
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him by his first name, you know, Mark, Mark, Mark, you know what I mean?
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He's not going to, you know, he's decided and regardless, he's a good guy.
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You know, I don't know what that really means half the time.
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You know, he makes quips about, um, you know, different gender issues.
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You know, he's really always kind of poking them a little, as you can tell.
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It's not a, it's, it's a little bit of an offset, uh, relationship.
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So they get to this point and we're coming up to July.
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So now we're coming up to July and we're going to be negotiating Kuzma, right?
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Trump said, ah, I don't really need to, you know, technically he doesn't.
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And up in, uh, basically it was ratified in 2020.
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You know, it's a six year review is what we're into.
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You could walk away at any time during the agreement with six months notice.
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The American economy already is showing some, um, dents and bruises.
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We're seeing many stories of, uh, same problems here.
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Young Americans can't buy a home, jobs, manufacturing.
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So he's, if he does this, Paul, if he does this, he's not thinking about the long-term effects
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on the average American worker and the average American family and the American economy.
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And Carney, to his credit, love him or hate him.
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I'm, he's probably seeing what's coming up the highway and he's cutting deals at other
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countries to keep some money flowing in and out of our country.
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I, you know, and, uh, I'm hoping, you know, we're all hoping that that keeps going.
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And quite frankly, there's no, uh, roadblock from the Trump camp.
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But, you know, you look at this and you have to say personalities again, because when Kuzma
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comes into play and all these terms are being negotiated, we send, of course, Freeland.
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Trump and her, his group despise the lady, right?
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He even says when she's leaving, he's even doing tweets about her leaving, how good it
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is they finally gotten rid of her when she resigns, right?
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And goes to the Ukraine, which is another bizarre, you know, thing to get into.
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But the personality is just not working, right?
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And quite frankly, he's already said he's gone.
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So, you know, you have, again, in this end of this kind of era when this is going on,
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you have, uh, Trudeau, uh, you know, who, and, and Freeland who are exiting now giving
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Uh, it's, it's just an interesting dynamic of personalities and Trudeau at the time, Trudeau
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Trudeau, quite frankly, the last, you know, four years of Trudeau's was scandal after
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scandal, whether it be we, SEC lab, SNC lab, uh, the India pictures, Chinese interference,
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It's just one thing after another going sideways, quite frankly, probably didn't have a lot
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of time, just was managing the portfolio at the end.
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And Paul, but Paul, here's Kearney coming in who has spent the last four decades doing
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what big deals, big business, negotiating, managing banks, managing multi-trillion dollar
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As a Canadian, I have better faith that Kearney can negotiate some kind of deal because at
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the end of the day, Justin Trudeau did not have that background.
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He did not have the background of sitting in boardrooms with big business, the elite business
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But that, you know, honestly, a little bit of that, you know, and I'm, uh, it's the personalities
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of the day and the negotiation, you know, learned it many years ago, uh, dealing with great
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negotiators, great negotiators leave the table, hopefully with everyone feeling like they got
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Which is what you said Clinton and Gretchen used to do.
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Like there's personal animosity there with, with, uh, Trudeau and there was personal with
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And I think those tweets and everything he's writing, you know, there wasn't a lot of love
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And quite frankly, you know, uh, even, uh, the Mexican, uh, president at that time, you
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know, Nieto, Nieto, yeah, Enrique Nieto, uh, you know, there was some dissension, you know,
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And he led to some odd times in that relationship.
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So they got, they got to Kuzma, but Kuzma, Kuzma was muddy, right?
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Uh, there were, and it was muddy since the Clinton days, right?
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They were always worried about, quite frankly, Mexico and their low labor and their low cost.
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You know, they, they constantly, whether it be automotive or, or a steel or whatever, they
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wanted the composition of, uh, the products not to be made somewhere else and shipped through
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So they didn't want China shipping things to Canada and into the U S they were very cautious
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And, you know, whether it be steel, whether it be aluminum, whether it be cars, they want
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our car parts, they were always very cautious, the U S when it came to Kuzma and even to back
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And a lot of that agreement, you know, it's 500 pages long, so I didn't want to go through
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all of it, but, you know, a lot of the agreement really is just the suspicion of where things
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So the ports, where they're built, how they're coming out, what their content is.
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And in order to make them, to make them, uh, tariff free, you know, they have to originate
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in Canada or originate in the U S and the content has to be so much.
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So you could see that as we were going through it and supply management didn't help us at all.
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I understand what you're saying, Paul, but here's the dichotomy to all of this.
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Meanwhile, millions of Americans go to their local store and buy Nikes built in Vietnam.
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Millions of America, if I can get my Nikes for $50, great.
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If you have this much money to spend and you need to buy certain things, sometimes you have
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to live the basic surviving, shoes in your feet, food in the table, roof over your head.
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And I understand what the government and the administration and negotiators are trying to
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do everything for the country. But there's also the reality of the lack of money for a lot of
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people. The average person in North America is trying to do more with less and less money.
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Oh, no, I get it. And, and, you know, in both countries, it's not. And in Mexico,
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and I think all three countries are feeling the inflation push. Right.
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And that's, that's the other thing hanging over the negotiators is that inflation,
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that cost of living now is the number one concern for Canadians and all the polling.
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Number one concern more than anything is, can I afford to do things? Can I buy these things?
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Because it's getting harder and harder every month.
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Yeah. Well, and that's, you know, that's what the polling is telling us. Right.
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But, but, you know, they all go hand in hand. So what's going to happen here with Kuzma,
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what's going to happen with is going to dictate that. So we were talking before,
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you know, and it's interesting. And this is a challenge that I think,
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you know, Trump's going to bring to the table at some point. He can bring all the manufacturing
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back. He can bring it out of Mexico. He can bring it back out of Canada. He can make autos
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only in the U S but what does a car cost at that point? Well, I mean, the, the U S auto union's
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not going to allow the workers to be paid two 50 an hour. Right. So that's not happening.
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Right. So what does that translate to the people in the U S right? And so that's some
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of the issues he's going to see. They haven't come up against that yet because it's not done
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yet. Right. We're still in the old format. We're still, we're still moving cars seven
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or eight times across borders where, you know, there are, you know, we put a tariff on,
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they put a tariff on, we kind of counter tariffs for a while. Then we drop tariffs and then we go
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back and forth. Right. So that's real quick. This has been going on the auto act since 1965.
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Oh, of course. Sure. There are a way that maybe you can tweak it, streamline it,
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make it more efficient, but still make it in such a way that vehicles are made.
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That's one of the hardest things. Now you try finding a new vehicle in this country under $35,000.
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It's very, very difficult. Oh yeah. And I drive by car lots all the time and it's filled with new cars
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that people simply can't afford to buy and the interest rates don't help and the economy doesn't
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help. So if those prices start going up, how will the manufacturers actually sell anything to people?
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It'll go back for the, for a while. I think it'll go back to the used car market. Like it was
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remember when we were younger, right? Everyone had a used car. Everyone had a used car. Now no one
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has a used car. You know, well, people still have new cars, but there's less. And quite frankly,
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there's more, uh, cars sold. So, you know, I was looking the other day, we, we buy around 1.9 million
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cars a year in Canada. So those are kind of the new car market. The U S is around 13 million.
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Uh, China is the lead, you know, buyer of around 31 million. Uh, and, and, you know, so you look at
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it, is there going to be a market for Canada on its own?
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On its own. I don't think that, no, we have to partner with somebody, right? We're not big enough
00:26:28.980
of a country to do something on our own, but, but that's almost the case. Well, uh, steel and
00:26:35.960
aluminum. No, we could, we could, it would be a much smaller industry. So it would, it would,
00:26:41.100
but building and selling cars globally on our own. I don't see that. Yeah. No, I don't see that.
00:26:46.420
Uh, when it comes to steel and aluminum, we could still have an industry. It'd be a smaller industry
00:26:51.780
because, you know, yeah, because, you know, we, we roughly push around 5 billion in steel and
00:26:56.940
aluminum to the U S and, you know, we use about 3 billion ourselves. So we still have an industry
00:27:01.980
there, but it would be smaller and more condensed. And can we find other markets to go into? And I
00:27:08.600
think that's where the prime minister is trying and trying to do it. But it, it's interesting when
00:27:13.480
we, it comes to Kuzma and you look at all those things, the quintessential challenge, which we're going to
0.53
00:27:19.560
talk about on more shows is you can change auto, you can change steel. Uh, you can change lumber.
00:27:27.280
What's going to happen with energy? Cause that's the key one when we get there, because quite frankly,
00:27:32.800
that's where we hold a little bit of leverage in the conversation.
00:27:36.440
Well, we have staggering amounts of hydroelectric. Yep. Ontario just redid a fabulous job refurbishing
00:27:44.240
the Darlington nuclear plant under, ahead of schedule and under budget. Yeah. I saw that,
00:27:49.900
which was pretty impressive for Steven Lecce and Doug Ford. So we have tons of energy from nuclear
00:27:56.420
plants, hydroelectric, and we still have all that oil, natural grass, uh, natural gas on the ground.
00:28:02.520
Yeah. So in that way, Canada is poised quite strongly for the future in that sense.
00:28:10.020
It is. I mean, we sell currently hydro to the Northeast U S from the big hydroelectric dams
00:28:16.240
in Quebec and Labrador, which I'm sure they're more than happy to take terror free.
00:28:21.820
Right. Right. Cause what else, but, but, but at that point, I know, but at that point,
00:28:27.020
if he's said no to steel, no to aluminum, he said no to auto.
00:28:31.820
So what's the next step you can go abroad, but at some point, and that's always been the, you know,
00:28:39.820
that's the elephant in the room that no one wants to address. Right. It's always been one of those
00:28:43.640
ones where remember Doug Ford kind of tiptoed toward, and then they were like, Oh, stop, stop.
00:28:48.520
We're not going to talk about that. Alberta, of course, you know, is not happy right now.
0.95
00:28:52.680
So that's really the elephant in the room in this negotiation. Now it's interesting. Cause I find,
00:28:59.300
uh, Mark Carney right now has said, we're done. So the prime minister has said, we're finished.
00:29:07.860
You know, we're ready for negotiation. We're ready for July. Here's our info. There you go.
00:29:11.960
Beginning of February. Yep. We're, we've done our review. We've got our comments. We know where
00:29:15.920
our position are. We're ready to negotiate when you're ready to negotiate. Here we are.
00:29:19.480
Yep. Yep. Right. Today he's on, you know, the press conference on auto, you know, if it happens,
00:29:28.460
great. If it doesn't happen, I'm going another path. Like here's the path that I'm putting in
00:29:33.280
place. So, you know, again, we'd love to deal with us automakers. We'd love to do all that stuff,
00:29:37.940
but if it doesn't happen, because what could happen, when he knows it in July, July 1st,
00:29:43.040
we could go to the table and he could come, he could come to the table and say, we're, we're terminating.
00:29:48.700
And I totally agree, Paul, but here's the big issue hanging over all of it. There is so much
00:29:55.060
drama happening in DC with Trump, with his health, with the Epstein files, with his cognitive abilities,
00:30:01.900
who knows what Donald Trump will be talking to Carney in June, as opposed to now in early February,
00:30:08.560
who knows what kind of power he has, who knows what state he's going to be in. That's the difficult
00:30:14.120
thing for Carney is dealing with these other presidents and prime ministers. I know when I
00:30:19.180
talk to prime minister Makuchi in three months, he's going to be the same guy I'm talking to right
00:30:23.580
now. Yeah. But with Donald Trump, you don't know. No. And I think it's difficult for Carney, for Kuzma,
00:30:29.180
for every country in the world right now. Well, you know, he's, he's kind of laying out the path
00:30:34.860
and it's interesting today. I thought, uh, before the show we were going into, we didn't have this
00:30:39.480
on the agenda, but I was like, okay, that's interesting. He's putting his auto plan. So
00:30:43.840
my guess is over the next few months, leading up to July 1st, he's just going to lay out a plan for
00:30:49.220
every industry. Right. I think, Hey, if you're going to do it fine, we want to do business. I'll do
00:30:53.940
business. If you don't, here's what we have. Yeah. I'm not waiting. No, that's smart. No, no. And
00:30:59.220
listen, I liked it today. I don't know if I agree. We're going to talk about it on another show. I
00:31:03.820
don't know if I agree with everything he's talking about, but he's not waiting until something happens.
00:31:08.340
No, I think, I think being, uh, being, uh, proactive, proactive. Thank you. Uh, being proactive
00:31:15.660
and moving forward and trying to get ready for it is a great idea. And I, I look forward to seeing it,
00:31:20.140
but Jim, thank you. And thank you for the show. And why can't you negotiate Kuzma?
00:31:25.640
Well, I'd be, I'd be playing golf or hanging out. I would get a deal done. And hopefully,
00:31:34.480
you know, I get a tan. Thank you everyone. Uh, please, we have a new app, so please subscribe
00:31:41.660
and subscribe and get the new app. And we look forward to more shows on Kuzma.