00:26:33.140The concept is that we have all these projects and we have them all across the nation now to build the infrastructure to do the projects.
00:26:42.140And I think that's where the, again, the missing link in this budget, which I said was the same missing link in the fall budget, is they need to connect them now.
00:26:50.220So if I have a capital project, a mine, a plant or whatever in another city, and I don't have the infrastructure to locate the people, I first have to move the trades and the companies that construct into those areas, incentivize them, get them to build so people can go live there and survive and enjoy and have a family and the schools and everything else.
00:27:11.600in grocery stores and then quite frankly i can move the people into those areas and they can
00:27:16.400start to flourish by building the properties similar they can create new small towns listen
00:27:22.020we did it mining towns we we particularly did it in the 30s 40s and 50s we were good at it yeah at
00:27:27.420one point we were good at going in the north and building towns and uh infrastructure my own family
00:27:32.520relocated to timmins it was a mining town there you know there was another fan uh uh part of my
00:27:39.000my cousins and and my aunt and uncle were military so they followed that route you know yeah well
00:27:44.440let's talk about military right a huge part of uh what's coming up quite frankly and sectors that
00:27:50.440we're spending over 25 billion on the first one is defense it's 7.7 billion we're spending it right
00:27:57.000now and that's you can see it right we're we're starting to fix up bases we're actually you know
00:28:03.560buying planes equipment everything every week we're seeing another announcement on defense
00:28:08.740spending it's true which is something we're doing but again people and marrying those people
00:28:13.920to the project to the to the expenditures is the challenge right now and that's the disconnect
00:28:20.880that's where we need to get better at it right yeah it does feel that way yeah uh on the major
00:28:26.220projects uh you know okay so you've got defense uh in the industry overall uh the strategy there
00:28:34.380is basically to support uh tariff laden industries by the looks of things things like steel
00:28:39.960uh farming uh automotive automotive yeah all of those sectors well you know we're spending out
00:28:47.460of that 25 billion that's going out right now is 6.9 of us on automotive which again i'd like you
00:28:54.480know to sit down and under fully understand which it's not in this budgets it's you know they talk
00:28:59.020a little bit about it but they don't talk about what's going to happen to automotive i think we're
00:29:03.860we're waiting for kuzma so we've allocated some money we have a relief fund going to the automotive
00:29:09.560workers we have uh and the employers to say hold on to these people till we figure out what we're
00:29:15.220doing in the summer so there's kind of a uh like a hold fee being paid right now it's kind of what
00:29:21.020it feels like it is it's like construction when you're trying to keep that construction manager
00:29:24.580and you say to him go home for three weeks you know here's a whole fee so just stay at home wait
00:29:29.420for my project to start so they're they're kind of doing that with automotive you can see it circling
00:29:33.340and they're talking more about electric vehicles they're talking about what's going to happen
00:29:37.540but it really is the missing link if they're going to try to rebirth auto uh in the country
00:29:43.080i don't know if it's sustainable with only a couple million cars sold a year maybe it is maybe
00:29:48.860it isn't but somebody pointed out and i saw this in the globe the other day that our automotive
00:29:53.220might become more like mexico in the sense that we might be parts manufacturers we might be
00:29:59.440component manufacturers maybe the battery element of it but you're right there's no real there hasn't
00:30:06.000been and even from the auto industry there hasn't been really any talk of what the strategy is
00:30:13.040and i guess kuzma is the hold it is the hold so that that whole group of people that
00:30:18.380the committee that they put into place with you know dominant leblanc and the group that's
00:30:24.280continually going to the u.s not making a lot of headway right now you know they're going to come
00:30:29.180back and tell us at some point if that is even going to happen but you know just keeping in mind
00:30:34.280that the u.s is i think they're got their mindset that automotive is going back and the more you
00:30:40.120know i listen to stuff in the u.s the more they're talking about the rebirth of the auto town and the
00:30:45.700auto sector you know and for those of you you most canadians know how auto parts is essential
00:30:52.240to ontario right now but those you know magna inter magna plants and everything going with that
00:30:58.120group you know where they're going how they're going to survive what they're going to end up
00:31:03.260making you know i'm sure they're waiting to through the summer to see and once again kuzma
00:31:07.640must be the link on that because of course mexico is the other hub you know we develop it here we
00:31:13.080get it manufactured there we yeah do parts assembly here but you know will we get back to
00:31:20.220building entire cars or how will that look it would be i'd be very curious to see what the plan
00:31:25.100is yeah once again i don't think we'll hear anything until kuzma no so that's sitting you
00:31:29.180know uh basically our critical mineral strategy um that's another one we're going to talk about
00:31:36.020that in a minute really hasn't been well defined we outlined the projects we outlined some of the
00:31:41.480things we're putting money into um but we've we've allocated five billion dollars for critical
00:31:48.760minerals now what's going to happen with that where it's going to be spent when it's going to
00:31:53.420get live that's another thing that that we're waiting to see uh and of course uh clean energy
00:32:00.040was one of the topics that came up here yeah okay do i talk energy or clean energy that's kind of
00:32:09.000my question i mean yeah we really right now are being propped up as we will we'll talk about on
00:32:15.720this budget yeah by oil prices at the moment um oh yeah he caught a break well not a break he you
00:32:21.880know the the world sort of uh sent this budget a little bit of a break in an unfortunate way
00:32:28.760when uh the war in the middle east kicked in then quite frankly you know everyone knows they're
00:32:33.800paying at the pump oil skyrocketed which then meant the fees and they come to canadians uh
00:32:39.960through the distribution of oil um that just blew up right to the point where it's actually
00:32:47.240uh cut our budget shortfall by about 17 billion dollars so the question arises in my mind can we
00:32:55.240as canadians have that money please because it's cost us so much for gas couldn't you
00:32:59.480you doesn't isn't there like a media correlation that you could make instead of claiming that your
00:33:04.340budget is going to be less in deficit this is an emergency for Canadians and he's using that money
00:33:10.120to offset a deficit at a time where this really could make a difference at the gas pumps for
00:33:15.740Canadians and for business overall in Canada yeah no it is it is true so you know the interesting
00:33:22.800part is we ended up, we ended up, uh, having a deficit of $67 billion. So, but that is primarily
00:33:30.880because we had $17 billion of, you know, revenue come in from oil. So 84 billion. So our deficit
00:33:39.380was really 84 billion. And then we got 17 billion. We had budgeted for 78 billion. Right. So we
00:33:48.420really are six billion over over right i know we want to make the you know we hey we did better
00:33:54.500than we thought and no no we don't want to do that paul why are they doing that that's not that's not
00:34:00.320ideal the the joy of numbers sometimes right they can they can show one thing but the reality is
00:34:05.780you know the oil and gas prices have uh come back now we have taken some of that saving so
00:34:13.180So, you know, he, the prime minister and liberal government have tried to take some of those savings and put them into programs to help Canadians of lower income.
00:34:22.500Right. Even all Canadians with reducing the taxes on gasoline at the pump and some of the food programs that you're getting, food rebates, GST rebates.
00:34:32.180So those have actually come back to Canadians. The problem is you add all these other programs, whether it be the the the wealth fund, whether they be jobs training.
00:34:42.000all the things we're spending in addition that we didn't budget in the fall are actually coming
00:34:47.040to roost now and actually driving that number higher. So we've exceeded the deficit that we
00:34:52.300originally have. And then we deducted the $17 billion off for what we got in oil revenue.
00:35:00.120And voila, we have a $67 billion deficit. I've seen this kind of math before.
00:35:05.380Yes. Okay. Let's take a second and drill down,
00:35:08.560no pun intended, on some of the major projects that were outlined for us in the plan by the
00:35:14.480Prime Minister. Where do we stand with those now? Still going on, right? And we've committed
00:35:19.420six transformative strategies, 15 projects, 60,000 jobs is what they're calling for.
00:35:29.740Again, these don't happen overnight. And it's an expenditure for Canadians of about $125 billion.
00:35:36.000So, you know, this is an LNG. It's for the Nickel and Crawford project that's happening up in Timmins. It's for the Darlington nuclear plant in Bowmanville. It's for the mines in Quebec and Alberta and the Tolstin hydro expansion and Great Slave Lake in the Northwest Territories.
00:35:59.920so you know these are 15 strategies they also still have slated the alto alto high-speed rail
00:36:06.880yeah i noticed that i'm still on the list and you know the corridor for conservation um which is in
00:36:14.520the northwest uh british columbia and the yukon so these are all things uh in churchill plus which
00:36:22.000is in manitoba so a lot of projects still slated um slow progress so but they're on the books they're
00:36:29.540they're referred to um and the major projects office that have been set up are managing them
00:36:34.900now you know on the critical minerals front there's an investment that's going on now it's
00:36:40.820not as substantial as you'd think so you know canadians always think oh we're into critical
00:36:45.940minerals we are making as a as a country we are making an investment in critical minerals but
00:36:52.340you know graphite mines in quebec quite frankly we're loaning 46 462 million in debt servicing
00:37:00.020to finance we have 149 equity financing in it for the nouveau mon graphite so that's happening the
00:37:08.900rio tinto um project that's happening in quebec we we're making a 25 million uh investment in as a
00:37:17.380country titanium or lithium uh in alberta that's a project we've talked about on a previous show
00:37:25.460with stan it's a good it's a good project it has a lot of challenges because it's new technology
00:37:33.380these are all loan mechanisms paul they're loans there's some equity there is a high component of
00:37:38.580equity but it's not a you know i thought it would be a higher amount and i'm always kind of um
00:37:43.860surprised how how and uh you know we talked about how our critical minerals are lifeline for a
00:37:51.840country you know i think we need to reassess whether we're making enough of an investment
00:37:57.600and what we're going to do with them so you know it's one thing to say you have critical minerals
00:38:03.560it's another thing to say where you're going to how you're going to process them where you're
00:38:08.240going to sell them what products are they going to go into right and how they're going to make
00:38:12.820you a powerhouse again you know i i don't mean well you would hope that these various arrangements
00:38:17.780have been made around the world by carney at the moment position us well with those resources you
00:38:23.460hope but you know once again we don't see that yet well and on previous shows we've talked about it
00:38:28.040mike a lot of these resources and these critical minerals countries have already left ahead of us
00:38:33.040so we're still telling it out there for example they are you know and we talked about it on
00:38:37.960previous shows how you know china australia you know whether it be lithium or it'd be graphite
00:38:43.640you know all these materials are are already being mined in other countries in a substantial
00:38:50.320way right so we've got to do startup if you look at it from a business standpoint you get into
00:38:55.260startup mode spend a lot of money enter the market late so you have to enter the market at a lower
00:39:01.480price generally speaking there's no other way to win yes and then start to build your way back
00:39:07.520and become, you know, existent in that industry,
00:39:11.860not even just a winner, just existent, ongoing,
00:39:15.160is a huge front load of debt and investment.
00:39:19.120It is, and quite frankly, you need to create it.
00:39:36.580It's not only critical minerals, but it's critical that we get going on this because, quite frankly, the world is starting to pass us by because we're moving at a too slow a pace on this.
00:39:46.200And when I look at the investment we're making, my one recommendation coming out of the budget is we put more money into this.
00:39:52.200We put more money into the mining sector for the critical minerals that build Canada today.
00:39:57.780So what are the things we need to use at home, whether it be in defense, whether it be in housing, whether it be in electronics, manufacturing?
00:40:04.360what are the critical minerals we need to get place in place today for our country and then
00:40:09.400what can we sell abroad directly what contracts can we get in the short term and you know that's
00:40:14.460the challenge because as we're doing it you got to imagine there's a bunch of other countries doing
00:40:18.420it and you know not to totally unrelated but before this we did a show on immigration it's
00:40:24.460a great show but it was a scary show because as we're creating an immigration policy the eu is
00:40:31.080already ahead of us and they've already got an immigration policy that they've deployed for the
00:40:35.400people that are kind of abandoned in their country so they're already rolling out there's we're just
00:40:41.260starting to figure out what to do so again as canadians we got to be moving at that pace
00:40:46.020uh an interesting way to position this budget is to take a look at it from that perspective that
00:40:53.600the rest of the world is also rebudgeting realigning certainly everybody in the g7
00:40:58.740is doing a realignment of how they spend and what they spend
00:50:45.300but okay yeah i mean if if we're not increasing spending i guess that's a good thing i hope that
00:50:53.640means that we've also solved the health care problems associated with you know all of these
00:51:00.160uh major critical complaints that we've heard over time you know uh hallway care
00:51:06.180huge wait times surgery wait times all of this sort of stuff i don't know that that has been
00:51:13.480taken care of yet i don't know if money is the solution to that yeah so we have around 60 billion
00:51:18.680from the federal government on health care transfers a year that's flattened quite frankly
00:51:23.560they don't i don't think anyone anticipates from the provincial i know most provinces have really
00:51:28.040said to the the health care sector hey we're done yeah you know it's going down it's got a dip they
00:51:33.880can't provincially uh go any further and from a federal perspective they they've capped off so
00:51:40.440you know we have an aging population we have a stagnating or flat healthcare expenditure it's
00:51:47.160it's one of the bigger issues that's upcoming in canada we don't talk about from a from a revenue
00:51:52.600perspective you know just uh they've done a good job of keeping a corporate tax for corporations
00:51:58.920and small businesses flat i think they've done a decent job they continue to actually show a
00:52:05.480increasing uh personal tax revenue increase oh okay yeah so that continues to grow every year
00:52:12.120we see that kind of clicking up clicking up it's interesting because we now have a conundrum where
00:52:17.960we have an aging population less people playing paying a higher amount of income tax we have a
00:52:23.400bunch of new uh immigrants who are leaving right we're exiting and therefore we think our tax base
00:52:30.840is going to go up i don't really understand i've looked at the assumptions around the uh the uh
00:52:37.400actuarial assumptions that are based in that number i don't tend to agree with it but that's
00:52:44.840the assumption they make in the budget so just to be aware that could be a number that we see
00:52:50.680change change throughout the next couple years and hopefully won't go down substantially that's
00:52:55.720That's a pretty cool observation actually to make because you're right. This kind of shows where the extrapolation of projection on these numbers can meander a little bit.
00:53:06.680Yeah, yeah. If we have 2.3 million people exit the country and we have a bunch of people crossing the finish line that are leaving the workforce, hopefully they stay in Canada and retire in Canada.0.71
00:53:19.320if they decide not to retire in canada we'll lose some of them depending on where they would go
00:53:23.880i don't know where they go but uh that's a challenge and we have to always keep that in
00:53:27.640mind as we're doing these but so we have some you know as we go as a country we have some definitely
00:53:32.040challenges you know housing affordability quite frankly um from this budget i still you know i
00:53:37.960mentioned it before i still struggle with some of the uh logic on why we're spending some of that
00:53:43.480money i think would be best suited other places um but once you stimulate an economy and people
00:53:49.160have money and they have jobs homes begin to sell again yes the market opens up to people
00:53:56.920pre-buying homes which i think is the major stagnation right now is nobody's getting in on
00:54:03.320pre-sales certainly condo pre-sales are dead uh subdivision pre-sales are at their all-time low
00:54:09.720over the last 10 years so delinquencies have actually almost doubled in like three years
00:54:16.600so we're seeing more and more you know even you know we just did a show we took a look at
00:54:21.480brampton for example being the highest delinquencies in canada right now for for power of
00:54:26.760sales yeah a lot of mortgages were written up there that didn't make sense you could feel it
00:54:31.080these were yeah monster homes at huge uh huge rates that uh you know selling prices that were
00:54:37.320outrageous so yeah not surprised actually to see that but once the economy is stimulated once we
00:54:43.560are productive that's how housing becomes accessible to people not through building
00:54:51.800i don't know how the government does this except offset okay taxes we'll take the hst off up to 50.
00:54:59.800i mean that spreads out into billions of dollars but to the average person it doesn't mean much
00:55:04.840if they don't have a decent paying job exactly exactly and i think that is honestly mike the
00:55:10.360the the government and the prime minister right now that's the biggest challenge that is to get
00:55:16.260his caucus to get his ministers into play to try to figure out what to do to stimulate each of those
00:55:21.540areas and actually try to integrate them it'd be interesting right now i know they they love
00:55:26.920committees and they love to form things it'd be interesting to try to figure out or to for the
00:55:32.640government to sit down and try to figure out how to integrate all these ministries into one
00:55:38.400integrated strategy and where to go and um you know we did a show on norway the other day um
00:55:44.640and after we did the show i you know i came away and we were talking about the fact how they create
00:55:49.580equinor they created a wealth fund and they grew and grew and you know you came away and you thought
00:55:54.000wow that is a real strategy of a government talking about the long-term viability of their
00:56:00.200country yeah and every party that comes into power stays with this constitutionally so that
00:56:06.140forevermore that country can grow and the citizens will not allow them to change it no because the
00:56:11.400citizens have seen the benefit of reaping the rewards of the oil in the country we have the
00:56:17.140ability it's not too late for canada we can do this it's just getting the integration in place
00:56:22.400to make that happen and getting everyone to buy into it there's your spring budget update paul
00:56:28.240thanks for uh tearing it apart and by the way in case you wonder uh how big that budget is
00:56:33.440this is the working document that 167 pages oh thanks it's a good read yeah well for you thank
00:56:41.300you so much for uh making it clear for all of us though don't forget to subscribe tell a friend
00:56:46.320about where you saw the video you can share it of course comment and uh if you would like the
00:56:52.720notes that paul made for today's show we'd be happy to send those along to you so just reach
00:56:57.460out to us visit tplmedia.ca thanks we'll see you next time thanks paul thanks