True Patriot Love - Is Winnipeg’s Middle Class Quietly Disappearing？

00:00:00.000 Hi, thanks for joining us. I'm Mike, this is TPL Media. Go to tplmedia.ca to support the network

00:00:06.240 and see other great shows that are based on the things that Canadians are talking about

00:00:10.260 right now. You know, for decades, Winnipeg has been the country's quiet test market,

00:00:15.780 the economic bellwether. Not too rich, not too poor, not driven by oil like Alberta,

00:00:21.060 not propped up by finance like Toronto, just a balanced working middle-class city.

00:00:25.580 When policies work here, they tend to work nationally. When they fail here, the country

00:00:30.720 usually feels it next. And right now, Winnipeg's middle class is under pressure. Home prices are

00:00:36.780 climbing faster than wages, rent is spiking, grocery bills are crushing families, manufacturing jobs

00:00:43.040 aren't what they used to be, and public sector growth can't absorb everyone. Young families

00:00:48.300 are questioning whether stability is still possible in Winnipeg. Winnipeg used to be proof that you

00:00:54.440 didn't need to live in Vancouver or Toronto to build a comfortable life. So if that model is

00:00:59.280 cracking here, in Canada's most normal city, what does that say about the rest of the country?

00:01:05.740 On today's show, we are asking the question, if the middle class is disappearing in Winnipeg,

00:01:10.960 is Canada next?

00:01:11.940 Well, Paul, it's, by the way, Paul Micucci joining me to have this conversation because our economy and

00:01:22.840 just finance in general is in your purview here. So I appreciate you joining me on this.

00:01:29.500 Winnipeg is potentially in some trouble, but not only that, it's kind of an indicator for the rest of

00:01:35.000 Canada.

00:01:35.320 Yeah, I think so, Mike. You know, the size, you know, we've talked about in the past, I think,

00:01:40.540 you know, you and I before the show, Winnipeg and Ottawa were used as test markets to sort of

00:01:45.840 symbolize what products, what was going to work in Canada. Economically, it was kind of the test

00:01:52.940 bed because of the size, right? $100 billion economy, GDP, 1.5 million people. It used to be

00:02:02.320 the average GDP per capita, but coming out of COVID, it's fallen to third last in Canada.

00:02:11.240 So that's a massive jump.

00:02:13.140 It's a massive fall, quite frankly, because, you know, a working community, 1.00

00:02:17.820 you'd think the productivity per Canadian would be high.

00:02:21.000 Yeah.

00:02:21.540 But it's actually fallen quite a bit, which I was shocked to see, like, for example,

00:02:26.880 GDP per capita is below Newfoundland.

00:02:30.420 That's incredible to me.

00:02:31.660 Yeah. So the average GDP per capita, roughly around $75,000. They're at $64,000.

00:02:42.540 And they seem to have historically had sort of a more steady economy. The GDP will level out

00:02:50.880 over a longer period of time, rather than the spikes we see in, for example, Vancouver or Toronto.

00:02:57.000 So is that, do you think, going to start to disappear based on this?

00:03:02.780 Well, the interesting part, Manitoba itself is highly dependent on the United States.

00:03:08.160 So export and import and export and imports are both three quarters of them are from the United States.

00:03:16.960 So, you know, I was diving in it because I knew we were doing the show.

00:03:19.780 So, you know, really, if you take a look at what we export, so we export to the United States pharma,

00:03:28.700 and that's pretty much died.

00:03:30.980 I don't know, you know.

00:03:32.120 And in a short period of time, when you showed me that number, I mean, it was year over year.

00:03:36.100 Oh, drop-off.

00:03:37.280 Substantially.

00:03:38.080 Disappeared.

00:03:38.760 From 24 to 25, $300 million just left the market.

00:03:43.580 Now, that was, it's interesting because the State of the Union yesterday, when you were listening to Trump,

00:03:48.760 you know, he is saying that, quite frankly, be prepared that pharma is going to come back into the United States in a big way.

00:03:55.720 And he is going to reduce the price of pharma.

00:04:00.100 So if you're going to compete in that market, your margins are going to be lower.

00:04:03.360 So even if the Canadian companies are going to produce pharma to go to the United States,

00:04:07.940 he's not going to let it bill at as high a price or sell at as high a price.

00:04:12.300 The margins will be substantially lower.

00:04:14.300 So he is really dictating what's going to happen in that marketplace.

00:04:17.680 You know, it's interesting, Paul, as you say this to me, I'm starting to envision Winnipeg is sort of central in Canada.

00:04:24.080 Yeah.

00:04:24.200 It has the major port, major hub there for logistics.

00:04:29.960 A lot of what comes into Canada from the U.S. arrives over the border and into that by rail and trucking into that center.

00:04:39.840 If we are not doing as much business across the border, that's going to fail.

00:04:46.160 And it's only indicative of what we're not doing in business with the U.S.

00:04:51.900 So as we watch Winnipeg, Manitoba on the whole, we're going to see first in places like that, things like tariffs having an effect, things like the economy failing, having an effect, because that port of distribution is going to slow right down.

00:05:07.420 Yeah, well, you look at it, you know, what are their main exports right now?

00:05:12.480 So we talked about pharma being number one, buses, public transport vehicles.

00:05:19.280 So, you know, again, the U.S. is on this mission to build this all at home.

00:05:23.360 So that's not going anywhere.

00:05:24.660 Right.

00:05:24.920 Definitely not going into the U.S.

00:05:26.360 We're building trains, not buses here in Canada.

00:05:28.460 Exactly.

00:05:29.660 Potatoes and other vegetables frozen.

00:05:33.520 So, you know, again, that's something that the supply management chains with respect to rapeseed, which canola canola and everything happening with U.S. is about to change.

00:05:47.460 Yeah.

00:05:48.020 I mean, right now, Winnipeg is heavily protected by Kuzma, right? 0.76

00:05:51.500 It is.

00:05:52.220 You know, the good thing is on that front, you know, recently the Chinese negotiation by the prime minister has opened up that market, you know, his having to give up EVs and so many EVs in Canada, 49,000, whatever the number is, in order to get that market moving again.

00:06:07.780 But again, you know, as things move forward and we get through Kuzma, how that impacts the U.S. is to be seen.

00:06:14.260 Crude petroleum oils and oils obtained from, you know, the ground, the bitmys soils, electrical energy.

00:06:24.500 So they're in the energy business.

00:06:26.840 Big way.

00:06:27.380 They're in the energy business.

00:06:28.340 And we don't think about that.

00:06:29.460 We think only Alberta.

00:06:30.820 We think, you know, that's the center of the universe and then offshore.

00:06:34.560 Both ways.

00:06:35.620 So going and then coming back to Manitoba, you know, we have a net-net export-import relationship with the United States.

00:06:45.260 Aircraft.

00:06:46.620 So this is the one you and I talked about. 0.88

00:06:49.400 Aircraft, spacecraft, parts, and then, of course, pork, pigs. 0.94

00:06:55.700 Yeah.

00:06:56.280 Or they like to refer to it swine meat.

00:06:58.440 Yeah, swine or pig meat.

00:06:59.760 Okay.

00:07:00.240 Yeah.

00:07:00.560 So.

00:07:00.820 It's very specific.

00:07:01.580 So big.

00:07:02.860 And then, quite frankly, furniture, electrical transformers, converters, inductors.

00:07:09.460 But essentially, what you're saying is Manitoba's business is with the U.S.

00:07:15.600 That's where all of the business comes and goes.

00:07:19.200 Yeah, pretty much.

00:07:20.300 So right now, taking a look at a chart, I'm going to throw it up after the show.

00:07:25.020 But this is as of June 2025, 71.6% of their trade, their exports, were with the United States.

00:07:33.980 Only 5.5% was with China, 5.8% with Japan, only 3.3% with Mexico, and 1.2% with Australia, and then others.

00:07:44.560 So then it's a distribution of others.

00:07:45.960 So heavily, heavily reliant, just like we are in the rest of Canada.

00:07:51.200 But because of their size, their small GDP in the 1.5 million population, just like the test markets you saw in marketing, this is the test market where you're going to see the impacts the fastest.

00:08:03.580 So if we watch, if we want to watch what's about to happen coming into the middle of the year, this is a market we should be paying close attention to to see the impacts.

00:08:11.960 Well, we have. That's what Canada does. 0.98

00:08:14.160 In fact, if you don't mind, I'm going to detour just for one second to talk about the test market that Winnipeg has been, just so that people understand what we're talking about.

00:08:22.320 Fast food and retail products, McDonald's, Tim Hortons, all of these guys have historically tried products.

00:08:31.640 You know, new menu items, pricing experiments, store formats even, national ad campaigns, and that in itself, advertising.

00:08:39.840 Almost every ad campaign for every bank, every financial institution, every insurance company, any major communication that needs to be done between Canadians and their health, Health Canada and the rest of Canada, is all tested historically in Winnipeg.

00:08:57.640 And, you know, then, Paul, the next thing is policy.

00:09:02.660 So we test policy in Winnipeg historically because of the population, because of the disbursement of the population, but mainly because there's a healthy, consistent middle class of people that you can test on.

00:09:16.920 The people that are going to go to Tim Hortons consistently, go to your restaurant, buy your brand, watch, they've got cable, they're watching your campaign.

00:09:26.420 This was a good, solid test market because it was a solid lifestyle in Canada.

00:09:31.560 Well, it was, you know, urban and rural kind of equally balanced.

00:09:35.160 Yeah.

00:09:35.280 So, and a lot of farming, as we just noted from the products we listed in their export totals, and quite frankly, you know, more manufacturing bases.

00:09:46.480 So, you know, we saw airplanes, spacecraft, all those things, generators, all real manual labor technical.

00:09:55.100 And quite frankly, a lot of reasons for that, as we all know, is that, you know, the history of Canada, Eastern Europeans tended to migrate towards, you know, Manitoba, Saskatchewan.

00:10:07.820 They all had a very mechanically based trade base.

00:10:12.460 So they could.

00:10:12.800 Or it was easy to get into that without a lot of jumping through hoops to get into an industry.

00:10:19.380 You could work your way up.

00:10:20.560 Yeah.

00:10:20.880 Yeah.

00:10:21.080 A lot of, you know, I noticed in the trades that I deal with on, you know, a daily and a monthly basis, a lot of the really good heavy mechanics are coming still from Eastern Europe.

00:10:31.480 So whether it's, you know, for trucks, whether it's for generators, that a lot of them come.

00:10:37.560 And that just because that's what they learn as a trade going forward.

00:10:41.260 Now, one of the other things that kind of struck me as we were talking about this, and as I was looking into my little bit of research into Manitoba,

00:10:49.860 Winnipeg households are working more hours than they did a decade ago and taking home less share of income compared to previous generations.

00:10:59.800 This is devastating to many people who are lifelong, multi-generational people living in Winnipeg.

00:11:06.040 This is startling to them.

00:11:07.300 They've had a massive influx of immigration, which affects metro housing in Winnipeg.

00:11:14.820 There's no question about it.

00:11:17.460 It's changed the dynamic entirely of what jobs are available historically to youth.

00:11:23.480 Now, immigration is taking those spots. 0.74

00:11:25.940 And the health care system there, which many, it's, by the way, the largest employer by far, the largest industry by far, health care, is investing all kinds of money.

00:11:39.840 But the wait times are still way too long for the amount of people that live in that city.

00:11:46.020 So Winnipeggers right now, is that what you call these people, by the way?

00:11:50.340 Like, Christophe, I don't want to offend anybody.

00:11:52.280 Winnipegger?

00:11:53.380 Winnipegates?

00:11:55.020 Whatever.

00:11:55.540 We'll know before the end of the show.

00:11:56.660 Shout it out to me, okay?

00:11:58.940 Winnipegians?

00:12:00.100 Winnipegians.

00:12:00.640 I don't know what you are.

00:12:01.780 But I know this.

00:12:02.900 I do think that I can commiserate because, yes, food prices are going up.

00:12:08.000 That's really felt in a middle-class economy, things like food, things like taxes, you know, the housing costs going up.

00:12:19.820 Any slight difference to the middle class, and it's devastating.

00:12:25.020 Well, and think about it.

00:12:26.000 So because of the urban-rural kind of connection, you have a lot of people who are, their incomes are dependent not so much on annual raises.

00:12:37.420 They're dependent on yields.

00:12:39.300 Right.

00:12:39.800 So, you know, the better my crop does, the more money I have.

00:12:42.600 The worse it does, the worse I have.

00:12:44.300 If my trade deal goes away.

00:12:45.600 So the economy kind of rises and falls based on the commodity pricing of whether it be wheat or whether it be, you know, swine, pigs, and pork.

00:12:56.660 That's how the world works in their environment.

00:12:59.980 So you're seeing, quite frankly, that that fluctuations up and down and down aren't matching the inflation levels that they're seeing on the other side, which the rest of Canada, you know, we see it in a different way when you come east because, quite frankly, more manufacturing-based.

00:13:14.500 You're seeing a creep, but you're seeing, you know, our inflation, food prices, all those things increasing at more than our raises to our, not so much public sector, but our private sector.

00:13:27.940 Our public sectors are still getting large raises because, you know, we're codependent on them.

00:13:34.820 Yeah.

00:13:35.140 Yeah.

00:13:35.780 We don't check.

00:13:36.840 We don't check until it's after the fact.

00:13:38.540 Yeah, and we can't say no at this point.

00:13:40.120 So every time someone who's an essential service says they want more money, you say how much.

00:13:45.460 Right.

00:13:45.700 Right.

00:13:45.960 And that's kind of the spin we've gotten into.

00:13:50.340 Here's the problem.

00:13:51.400 80% of families are working harder than 10 years ago, as I mentioned, to just stay in the game.

00:13:55.180 And many middle-income families aren't seeing real wage growth.

00:13:58.460 Yeah.

00:13:58.660 The meaning, meaning that that increased expense cuts deeply into their budgets, which also means they're not saving.

00:14:06.400 And if you're not saving, you're not expanding life.

00:14:09.580 You're not making a big purchase down the road.

00:14:11.740 You're not getting your kids into a home if they need the assistance.

00:14:15.600 All of that is disappearing.

00:14:17.160 So it's not that the middle class is disappearing.

00:14:19.260 It's just being hollowed out.

00:14:20.900 Right.

00:14:21.340 One spoonful at a time.

00:14:23.480 Well, you know, and it's interesting because I took a look at the top revenues.

00:14:27.000 When you look at inflation and effects on economies, I first of all go to the top revenue-producing companies in the sector, in the area.

00:14:36.360 So commercial banking is number one, which you can see raises in commercial banking are not, you know, they're private.

00:14:44.000 The banks are doing fairly well.

00:14:46.800 But quite frankly, their raises are modest.

00:14:50.620 Gas and petroleum wholesaling.

00:14:52.280 So, you know, that's a net export, net import business in that basis.

00:14:56.340 It goes away and it comes back.

00:14:58.340 And price changes?

00:15:00.080 Price per barrel has been dreadful.

00:15:02.220 Yeah.

00:15:02.500 So quite frankly, on a commodity basis, they haven't seen, you know, it's been, as we've seen, it's been around 60.

00:15:08.300 It's growing up a little bit now.

00:15:09.980 It's starting to go up, but not much.

00:15:11.960 Hospitals, you mentioned, right?

00:15:13.760 So there's horror stories on the West Coast on hospitals.

00:15:18.180 Meanwhile, they're sinking so much money into them right now.

00:15:20.520 The premier is focused on that in a huge way.

00:15:22.940 Well, it's crazy.

00:15:24.380 Before, I think we were talking about it.

00:15:27.480 For 1.5 million people, they're at like a crazy $100 million or something.

00:15:34.800 Yeah, I think Wamp Canoe is like really maybe over skis on the health.

00:15:41.000 And I mean, reacting.

00:15:42.820 Winnipeg had a lot of news about how long you'd wait for health care.

00:15:46.700 The strain on health care, he's discovering quickly, you can't just throw money at it.

00:15:51.980 It begins in other places.

00:15:53.800 Yeah.

00:15:54.560 Shout out to him.

00:15:56.140 But if he's listening or if someone's listening that wants to tell him about it, he should go look at what Quebec's doing right now.

00:16:01.960 Even though they didn't get all the way there.

00:16:04.180 But, you know, they did acknowledge the problem.

00:16:07.220 So, you know, and kind of read what's going on in Ontario.

00:16:11.440 And our Auditor General reports.

00:16:12.980 I think if you combine our Auditor General reports for what's going on in the health care with what Quebec is saying.

00:16:18.820 Yeah.

00:16:18.940 I think you get a true story of what's happening in health care, even though as Canadians, we all want to put our head in the sand and forget about it and pretend it doesn't exist.

00:16:27.780 Well, we want to do the virtuous thing, which is help each other and make sure each other's healthy, right?

00:16:32.460 Yeah.

00:16:32.640 Having said that, money has to be put into the right places.

00:16:36.180 And historically, it's really top heavy, I think, in the health care system, both at the pharmaceutical and the doctor end of it, the specialist end of it.

00:16:45.120 Which, by the way, if you can get a specialist in any period of time that you need when you're lucky.

00:16:49.560 The interesting thing, Mike, when you go down, and I'll just get to the top 10 here, but, you know, new car dealers, supermarkets and grocery stores, farm supplies, and then automobile wholesaling.

00:17:02.200 So it drops.

00:17:03.540 It's interesting to watch kind of how their top revenue companies kind of drop off fast.

00:17:08.280 Yeah.

00:17:08.720 And there aren't really a lot of, how do I say it?

00:17:11.820 There's no backup in those industries, really.

00:17:14.220 There's no backup.

00:17:15.000 So, you know, again, we talk about the U.S.

00:17:17.200 Anything to do with cars, you got to be worried right now.

00:17:20.240 Well, there's a deal in place as parts go back and forth, taxes are removed.

00:17:24.340 Right.

00:17:24.640 And if tariffs come into place, those industries are instantly impacted.

00:17:30.340 Yes.

00:17:30.620 And devastated, probably.

00:17:32.320 Yeah.

00:17:33.200 And, you know, the top 10 employers in Manitoba right now is the government is number one.

00:17:39.520 Okay.

00:17:40.060 Right.

00:17:40.720 Number two is Prairie Mountain Health.

00:17:43.940 Number three is Maple Leaf Foods, which is, I guess, is important.

00:17:47.620 Right.

00:17:47.640 Yeah.

00:17:47.740 That makes sense.

00:17:49.400 BCE Inc., Manitoba Hydro, and Walmart, and then insurance company.

00:17:56.020 And then number eight is Boeing.

00:17:58.640 The schools are number nine.

00:18:00.880 And number 10, Bueller Industries.

00:18:03.520 So, at the bottom of the list, really, are the, at the bottom of the list, at the top

00:18:08.340 of the list, are those middle-class jobs.

00:18:11.380 Yes.

00:18:11.740 The kind that pay enough to have a vacation, make sure that your kids can go to university,

00:18:16.360 your house has a roof when it needs it, and life moves on fairly smoothly.

00:18:21.660 But you're kind of gripping, you know, you're, at this point, you're kind of holding on because

00:18:25.540 that U.S. relationship is in the balance right now.

00:18:29.300 You have Kuzma coming up. 0.97

00:18:31.060 You know, that's been kind of something that everyone's been talking about over the last

00:18:34.640 year, year and a half.

00:18:36.040 So, well, we stopped talking, but now all we talk about is tariffs, apparently.

00:18:40.320 Yeah, exactly.

00:18:41.820 So, you know, that's what's challenging us right now.

00:18:45.220 You know, one of the things that caught my attention was the, just the housing situation

00:18:49.800 and what it's like to buy a home.

00:18:51.800 A typical home costs about $341,000 in Winnipeg, which means saving for a standard downsized

00:18:57.860 home requires 13.6 months of income for a 20% down payment, up from 12.4 in just 2014.

00:19:07.640 So that's a significant jump in revenue.

00:19:11.520 The money you have to put aside, now you have to jump through flaming hoops at the bank to

00:19:17.200 make sure that you're good for the money because they let it go crazy for so long.

00:19:20.460 Right.

00:19:20.860 The monthly mortgage payment now will eat 35% of after-tax income, up from 26% just a

00:19:28.940 decade ago.

00:19:29.660 So, I mean, 10% over a decade is a significant, over a decade is not a long period of time

00:19:37.440 for a family in Winnipeg to see a massive difference in what they have to do to survive.

00:19:43.260 Yeah.

00:19:43.780 And now, if they are the prototypical city and we're seeing that indication there, first

00:19:54.040 of all, it sounds to me like if the U.S. doesn't play nice, Manitoba gets hit hard.

00:19:58.720 Farmers get no margin because the margins are similar to the tariffs.

00:20:02.280 The taxes going back and forth on aerospace will be devastating and they'll take a pass on

00:20:08.140 Winnipeg.

00:20:09.120 Investment in industry will disappear quickly.

00:20:11.180 Uh, people will be out of work shortly in that scenario.

00:20:15.760 So we need to figure something out with the U.S. for, for Winnipeg.

00:20:20.340 But it also kind of indicates that the rest of Canada, when Mark Carney talks about, you

00:20:26.280 know, everybody's going to have to breathe in, tighten the, tighten the belt a little

00:20:30.160 bit and prepare, be prepared to suffer.

00:20:32.980 I think what he's talking about is what we're seeing in, in, in Manitoba, Winnipeg specifically.

00:20:38.160 Yeah.

00:20:38.300 Well, it's your test, test model.

00:20:40.060 And again, you know, I, I come back to look at the imports that we bring in in Manitoba.

00:20:45.460 So, uh, as we talked about, uh, number one, uh, is turbo jets.

00:20:51.720 So propellers, turbo jets, all the things that go into, um, number two or close by is harvesting

00:20:59.460 equipment.

00:21:01.020 So all the equipment we bring in farming tractors, number three, pesticides, number four.

00:21:09.120 So those are all the things we're bringing in to make stuff to send to the U S yeah.

00:21:13.620 Am I wrong?

00:21:14.180 All of those items we require to do business back into the U S pretty much.

00:21:18.720 Right.

00:21:19.000 So all our heavy equipment, all our motor vehicles, uh, for passenger transport, all those parts

00:21:24.500 that come in.

00:21:25.140 So again, this is a symbiotic relationship where parts are moving back and forth across border.

00:21:30.140 All our heavy machinery is coming.

00:21:32.000 So these are all things we're bringing in that are making up and, and even the insulated

00:21:39.000 wiring, uh, electrical, optical fiber cables that are all going into all the equipment that

00:21:44.860 we're building, uh, uh, centrifuges, filtering of purified machinery, all that stuff is stuff

00:21:52.780 we're bringing into, to, for oil and gas, for farming, for all those things we're using.

00:21:58.880 We're, we're bringing in from the U S.

00:22:00.960 We're not self-sufficient even so if it becomes difficult to do business with the U S, but

00:22:07.400 we have business someplace else in the world, but we're still kind of out of the game because

00:22:11.380 the items that we need to do the business with are suddenly taxed at a price that makes

00:22:15.400 us no longer valid in the other markets we found we're priced out.

00:22:20.520 Well, we are, and we'd have to go, I guess we'd have to try to, and here's the challenging

00:22:26.420 part, which is what we're seeing in Winnipeg first, which is something we've talked about

00:22:30.140 on other shows.

00:22:31.140 Our, our exporting is highly, highly dependent on the U S as we just talked about our importing

00:22:38.580 highly dependent on the U S.

00:22:40.580 market.

00:22:41.580 So that goes away.

00:22:42.580 So we can say, we're not going to import any of these things anymore, quite frankly, because

00:22:47.020 they're not taking our stuff.

00:22:49.020 They're producing it at home.

00:22:50.020 They're not taking it anymore.

00:22:51.020 So therefore, where do we go find this?

00:22:54.020 Who is a plan to manufacture it at home?

00:22:58.520 Well, first of all, Trump has told us, I don't want you doing business with China, right? 0.97

00:23:02.460 So the Asian market essentially disappears.

00:23:05.460 Maybe we do, but Japan is self-sufficient and manufacturing and certainly technology and

00:23:10.960 even farming.

00:23:12.020 Yep.

00:23:13.020 We're probably not going to do a lot of business with them.

00:23:15.020 It's a great question, Paul.

00:23:17.020 Well, I don't know where this lands because there's really no market plus Trump isn't

00:23:22.320 going to let us sell aerospace technology to people around the world is going away, right?

00:23:27.020 That business is going away.

00:23:28.020 So if we, if we, you know, if we still want to be in the agricultural business in Manitoba

00:23:33.020 and we're getting, we're importing all our parts and products and heavy machinery from primarily

00:23:40.020 the United States, then we have to go and figure out if we don't have any exports to the United

00:23:45.780 States, which makes up 71% of this market, then we're not going to be able to import,

00:23:50.200 right?

00:23:51.200 Because we can't, we can't have, we can't not be able to sell it somewhere and have the

00:23:55.440 money to buy it from somewhere else, right?

00:23:58.260 So we have to be, we have to be making it at home, but then we're going to have to figure

00:24:03.320 out where we source all of the material to do it with.

00:24:07.260 So is, I guess that's the question, you know, at the end of the day, how much of our wheat

00:24:12.460 gets diverted into other countries?

00:24:16.340 And are we in the market in those countries at the price that we can offer it by the time

00:24:20.640 we get it there?

00:24:21.620 Are we able to get it there in, you know, a fashion, I guess, if it's already processed?

00:24:26.240 Yes.

00:24:26.660 But if it's raw, no, we probably can't be in the market as easily in some parts of the

00:24:31.240 world, like, you know, Australia, for example, or, you know, even as far away as, um,

00:24:37.100 Asia, I don't know that our wheat products hold up.

00:24:40.400 I guess if it is processed, somebody else could tell me on that, but I think you've got a

00:24:44.840 great point.

00:24:45.740 Where do we go to source and to sell in enough time, in time to keep that middle class 1.00

00:24:53.160 surviving, not just in Winnipeg, but across the country.

00:24:57.920 Where, and where did, so, and, uh, not too much doom and gloom.

00:25:02.040 Where did the depression, when you see all the pictures of the depression, where do you

00:25:05.740 see it from?

00:25:06.760 Oh, it's always in the cities.

00:25:08.400 It's always the prairies.

00:25:10.500 Yeah.

00:25:10.840 Right.

00:25:11.100 Yeah.

00:25:11.240 Oh, in the prairies.

00:25:12.320 Of course.

00:25:12.780 You see all the pictures of the farm guys.

00:25:14.700 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:25:15.200 Yeah.

00:25:15.480 Yeah.

00:25:15.660 Yeah.

00:25:15.740 The farm guys dry up fast.

00:25:16.440 Right.

00:25:16.740 Because quite frankly, uh, as the market and the nationalism and the borders closed, the

00:25:21.820 thing that gets hit first is farms, right?

00:25:25.160 Because they need to farmers just, you know, and you think about it now, this season's done

00:25:30.340 in the farm business, you know, they've started, you know, they've bought fertilizer.

00:25:34.280 They've, you know, they've already figured out what they're doing for the upcoming summer

00:25:38.340 season.

00:25:39.580 Like they've already made that jump.

00:25:41.760 You had to commit to get into pricing at that time.

00:25:44.580 Exactly.

00:25:44.940 So you had to be in, you know, planning, be there, you know, so you're, you're planning

00:25:50.360 is for next year now.

00:25:51.700 So you're kind of, I'm going to get through this season come the fall.

00:25:54.900 I'm going to make my decision up for next season.

00:25:57.160 So, you know, you're always, uh, you know, a year to six months, six months to a year

00:26:01.320 ahead of the market.

00:26:02.360 Yeah.

00:26:02.720 You have to be, to be in that market, like any business.

00:26:05.100 So now they're sitting there watching this, they're going to watch Kuzma and then they're

00:26:09.740 going to figure out what to do next.

00:26:11.480 If they don't get a, if they don't have a decision, they're just going to stop.

00:26:16.840 And then at that point, they're going to, the imports, uh, from anywhere else in the

00:26:22.000 world are going to slow down the exports.

00:26:24.400 They're not going to be shipping anything other than the stuff they've made this year,

00:26:27.520 uh, to get rid of it.

00:26:29.440 They're going to be at a standstill.

00:26:30.960 They'll, they'll standstill, they'll stall.

00:26:32.760 And then again, that's why markets, when you see things sort of bogged down in smaller

00:26:38.040 cities and, uh, uh, rural, uh, uh, communities, you see that quite frankly, because of the

00:26:45.160 timeline of planning.

00:26:47.600 They can't, it's not real time.

00:26:49.780 It's they have to be ahead of the game on pricing.

00:26:53.040 It's a forecast actually at all times.

00:26:55.200 You could lose a crop, a disease, a bad situation.

00:26:58.380 Um, so already farmers are taking a pretty big risk.

00:27:02.280 Oh, a huge risk.

00:27:03.480 You know, and now add to this, you know, they only make eight to 15% on average profit margin.

00:27:09.540 Right.

00:27:10.060 So now if they're tariffed 10%, they have to find another market.

00:27:16.380 If the U S dries up that quickly on that, they just can't afford to be there.

00:27:21.760 But, but here's the, you know, and this is the question I'm starting to ask more and

00:27:25.040 more in these conversations.

00:27:26.320 Where's the other market?

00:27:27.480 I don't know.

00:27:28.700 I know that this is a frightening discussion.

00:27:30.720 Is it Europe?

00:27:32.160 I don't know.

00:27:33.360 I don't know.

00:27:33.860 But, you know, you look at, you look at the numbers and we've talked about in other shows,

00:27:37.320 like when, when you go, you know, uh, for example, Mexico, and I, and I'm pretty sure

00:27:43.640 I'm pretty close to the number, but we did, we export about $6 billion.

00:27:49.200 Canada, you know, the UK 30 something billion dollars, like the amount we export to the U S

00:27:56.220 for hundred and seventy nine billion dollars.

00:27:58.760 So like, you know, we're talking, we're talking, um, you know, an asterisk, uh, uh, uh, period.

00:28:06.060 We're not talking, you know, something, uh, that we can just pass by.

00:28:10.620 No, this is like a full stop.

00:28:13.080 We need to, but you have one point.

00:28:15.120 So, and, and that's where I'm, I'm getting concerned because the date for Kuzma is coming 1.00

00:28:20.320 up.

00:28:21.080 It's time to go in region by region and actually lay down a, a contingency plan to, to start

00:28:29.120 to talk to people by region, what they're going to do.

00:28:31.500 Um, I'm wondering if Carney comes back from his most recent trip, it's funny.

00:28:35.840 He's got, uh, he's taking a premier with him on this one.

00:28:38.760 Yeah.

00:28:39.040 Nine cities.

00:28:40.460 I mean, well, the premier with him, because the premier is smart enough to realize where

00:28:45.900 does he, where does he sell his wheat?

00:28:47.620 Where does he, you know, what he probably said, I'm coming with you.

00:28:50.240 I don't know what you're up to.

00:28:51.120 He doesn't have a farmer market anymore.

00:28:53.260 So he's got to figure out how to push, you know, that industry out.

00:28:57.840 He's got to figure out what to do with canola.

00:28:59.680 Also, you know, Saskatchewan, not to switch provinces, they're also pretty healthy historically.

00:29:07.960 Uh, that could be another test market in Canada, but we see the premier going, getting on a

00:29:13.080 plane and going with the prime minister and saying, I look, I need to know what you're

00:29:18.060 up to here.

00:29:18.580 I, well, I've got to be doing business for my province.

00:29:20.960 Well, and honestly, I think it's, I think it's his constituents behind him.

00:29:25.580 I think the difference a little bit between the two provinces, you know, in Saskatchewan,

00:29:29.680 I think there's a big collective of business people behind him saying you get on the plane.

00:29:35.540 Yeah.

00:29:36.740 I don't know if it's him so much.

00:29:38.240 I think it's quite frankly.

00:29:39.480 And then when he gets off the plane, I think there's a big constituents of people waiting

00:29:43.540 for him.

00:29:44.020 Come here.

00:29:44.560 What deal did you sign?

00:29:45.640 Yeah.

00:29:46.160 I don't think there's, I think it's a little different there.

00:29:48.720 I think, I think we're talking about two and you know, not to knock, not to, not to knock

00:29:53.760 Manitoba because I think they've had their challenges, but you know, they did have, um,

00:29:58.440 the, the premier before, uh, canoe.

00:30:01.400 Oh, uh, um, well, there was, uh, Stevenson and then before that, uh, the missing premier,

00:30:06.960 the one that went to Costa Rica or somewhere for three quarters of the year.

00:30:10.260 Yeah, that's right.

00:30:10.940 Uh, uh, pop, uh, Christophe on that one.

00:30:15.560 So.

00:30:16.560 Pallister.

00:30:18.660 I know that I'm close.

00:30:20.800 Patterson.

00:30:21.760 Pallister.

00:30:23.000 Hey, listen, nobody said that there was going to be a premier's quiz at the start of the

00:30:27.900 show, but that was an era.

00:30:31.520 Uh, well, things were just getting done.

00:30:33.620 Right.

00:30:33.880 So we were, we were in a kind of one of those areas where we, we, we had, you know, Biden

00:30:37.740 was in great relationship with the U S weren't worrying too much.

00:30:41.720 You know, we could spend three quarters of the year in the sun and, you know, be, you

00:30:46.260 know, calling everyone from, you know, FaceTime and doing all that cool stuff.

00:30:50.780 And now you have to be in the game.

00:30:53.580 You can complain all you want.

00:30:55.180 You can, you can hope that, uh, you know, the U S changes their mind, but.

00:31:00.140 You know, we saw last night if state of the union, you watched him.

00:31:04.280 He's not, you know, he, he told you, he said.

00:31:07.980 I don't care what Congress is going to vote.

00:31:11.080 I don't care what the Supreme court's going to do.

00:31:13.800 I have embargo power.

00:31:15.940 And quite frankly, if you decide you don't want to take my deal, I won't take any of

00:31:20.640 your goods.

00:31:21.260 I'll embargo you.

00:31:22.400 Yeah.

00:31:22.900 You're done.

00:31:24.600 So I don't really care about what you want.

00:31:26.300 You guys.

00:31:26.740 Yeah, I don't really, I have the power to do it.

00:31:28.420 That's the power I have.

00:31:30.240 I'll use it.

00:31:31.640 I'll get it from somewhere else.

00:31:33.600 And he's, that's, that's what he's willing to do.

00:31:36.580 So, and if that's the case, then there's not much choice, but we're going to take the

00:31:40.500 deal.

00:31:41.520 Yeah.

00:31:42.000 Maybe negotiate a little bit on the 10% in certain industries, but overall taxation back

00:31:49.640 and forth kills aerospace, kills agriculture, kills pharma.

00:31:53.720 Well, and also, you know, we're, we're at the point now, so this is, um, you know, the

00:32:00.900 Ukraine Russian war is still ongoing, but at some point that'll stop and the U S will 0.65

00:32:08.040 move in right to, to assume the materials and lands that they were promised under the

00:32:13.800 agreement that he, you know, that he didn't make Zelensky sign that we didn't.

00:32:18.720 So, you know, we gave the money without any hooks or conditions.

00:32:22.720 So, and they will move in and they will really working against our own interest.

00:32:28.340 We'll start to export and, uh, or, you know, or the U S will import as much as they can from

00:32:36.080 a country that they're supporting or they have supported, uh, imagine that our relationship

00:32:41.520 is tilted.

00:32:42.100 So that market will change too.

00:32:43.720 So then we'd have to shift, but these are all the plans.

00:32:46.940 Like, I know we don't want to talk about it.

00:32:49.220 I get, we don't want to talk.

00:32:50.320 And this is the frustrating thing to me.

00:32:51.800 I know we don't want to talk about it, but it's not hard to find like, you know, preparing

00:32:57.240 for this show and I, you know, just for the, the people watching, you know, preparing for

00:33:01.600 this show is, you know, we pull the annual report of the, of the, of the province.

00:33:05.720 We sit down and look at the, you know, in import export associations, we pull the numbers.

00:33:11.480 It's pretty easy to see there's graphs.

00:33:13.500 You see where all these things are provided, um, you know, and you look at it and you say,

00:33:18.500 okay, what's, what are my risks industries?

00:33:21.220 But at this point, let's like, let's start to actually talking, you know, intelligently

00:33:25.960 about what the contingency plans are.

00:33:28.580 If that goes sideways.

00:33:30.120 Well, you, you want to, I mean, if you take a look at Winnipeg is a good example.

00:33:33.860 Yeah.

00:33:34.180 If you take healthcare out of the mix, which we can't really afford to be, you take healthcare

00:33:39.960 to the mix aerospace out of the mix and even just a little bit of the farming and there

00:33:45.340 is provincial collapse.

00:33:46.800 I think, you know, they can't, and then what does that mean federally?

00:33:50.120 Well, that means that we're going to be subsidizing the farmers, the aerospace, it, we're just

00:33:54.480 getting deeper into debt.

00:33:56.000 Well, these, you know, these people will pick up and move.

00:33:59.140 They have to, at this point they will, but because the aerospace will for sure.

00:34:02.820 Yeah.

00:34:03.080 Once those industries are leaving as they, as they start to, you know, move to other places

00:34:07.860 and they, they leave Winnipeg, quite frankly, you'll, you know, banks will close.

00:34:14.480 Yeah.

00:34:14.700 Hospitals will get smaller.

00:34:16.080 Commercial real estate.

00:34:17.020 Supermarkets will wind down.

00:34:18.740 Yeah.

00:34:19.020 All those things will happen, you know, and you're, you're starting to see it's, it's

00:34:23.220 interesting what you're starting to see in market trends, even, even here in the East,

00:34:27.240 central and Canada.

00:34:29.840 You know, you're seeing the composition of business is changing, you know, the Loblaws is

00:34:34.740 going to open more no frills.

00:34:36.640 I saw that.

00:34:37.820 Yeah.

00:34:38.060 So they're changing to discount supermarkets.

00:34:40.220 So they're not, you know, they're going to expand shoppers, but reduce the Loblaws

00:34:45.420 branded stores.

00:34:46.560 So, you know, they're, you're, you're going to see all these things happen as, as the

00:34:50.160 market changes.

00:34:51.300 And then quite frankly, co-ops, farmer co-ops, equipment, all those things they'll reduce.

00:34:57.660 Well, Winnipeg is already starting to feel it.

00:35:00.600 They started with housing, the cost of living, food and less hours to be paid for on an overtime

00:35:06.440 basis.

00:35:07.280 Government jobs started to be cut.

00:35:09.260 The healthcare industry grew, but they imported people to do it with.

00:35:13.220 And so really as our test market, as the prototype in Canada, it's a little frightening right

00:35:20.860 now.

00:35:21.120 The, the teeter totter that, that Winnipeg is sitting on, we all are.

00:35:27.000 And probably with, maybe it goes down faster than anybody else, but it is indicative of

00:35:33.880 what we're going to see in every other province across the country.

00:35:36.060 I believe in some fashion.

00:35:38.100 That's why so politically, and then just, you know, before we wrap up, if I was, you

00:35:42.980 know, if I was on the political end and I was actually in power as a government right

00:35:47.540 now, I would be moving to places like Manitoba to get a plan in place.

00:35:51.780 Cause the last thing you want to do, it's, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

00:35:55.080 If you see Winnipeg and the province of Manitoba start to struggle significantly, the rest of Canada

00:36:01.740 will see it's coming in certain fashions and form, and then that'll be the domino that

00:36:06.860 starts going.

00:36:07.620 And I think that's why you got to get a plan in place.

00:36:10.000 Maybe what we need to do is, uh, that's a great idea actually in my mind.

00:36:13.460 Okay.

00:36:13.680 So let's talk that through for a second.

00:36:15.140 Sure.

00:36:15.520 Let's use Winnipeg as a test market.

00:36:17.400 Yep.

00:36:17.780 Let's say, okay, us, we're going to do everything based on our successes in Winnipeg and Manitoba

00:36:24.400 at large.

00:36:25.760 And if everything works out there, then we'll roll it out across Canada.

00:36:29.240 But until we come to this negotiation point in one of our bellwether provinces, we don't

00:36:34.780 know if it's going to work for us.

00:36:36.100 Let's do a test.

00:36:37.100 Yeah.

00:36:37.500 And the first thing I would do, a big infrastructure project.

00:36:41.240 Sounds right.

00:36:42.140 We're talking about huge infrastructure projects and other places in Canada right now.

00:36:47.260 This is a province that needs, needs a big win.

00:36:50.580 So, you know, I know we're talking about AI centers and energy and all that good stuff.

00:36:55.440 And if you use the resources of Manitoba and find a way to actually do something on a big

00:37:01.040 scale here that helps Canada from an infrastructure perspective, I think it makes sense.

00:37:07.220 Rather than losing people to other cities from Winnipeg that are qualified, keep them. 0.52

00:37:11.620 You have machinists.

00:37:12.600 You have people who are heavily skilled from different countries to build turbines, to

00:37:16.580 build motors, to build.

00:37:18.380 Isn't this the place to go?

00:37:20.000 Sounds right.

00:37:20.840 Yeah, it does sound right, doesn't it?

00:37:22.160 All right.

00:37:22.740 Well, I think we solved another problem, maybe just for Winnipeg today.

00:37:25.900 Thanks for talking to me about this, because I think it's important, Paul, that as Canadians,

00:37:29.660 we understand there's indicators out there already right now that we need to look at.

00:37:34.520 And I do like the idea of making that test market where we begin to solve some problems.

00:37:39.820 Yeah.

00:37:40.100 And look forward to talking about it more as we proceed, because really the outcome here,

00:37:44.720 it will show.

00:37:46.320 Remains to be seen.

00:37:47.540 Yeah, remains to be seen.

00:37:48.200 We have one tariff announcement, one Kuzma meeting left, and we'll be back at this table,

00:37:52.680 I think.

00:37:53.140 I think.

00:37:53.740 Thanks, Paul.

00:37:54.440 Thanks.

True Patriot Love - March 01, 2026

Is Winnipeg’s Middle Class Quietly Disappearing？

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