[Sneak Peek] The Iran Update 06 24 26 - What's Next？
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Summary
On today's show, Mike and Paul discuss the Iranian MOU that has been negotiated by the U.S. with Iran, and how it could have a big impact on Canada and the global economy. They also talk about the impact on oil prices and the potential impact on the Middle East.
Transcript
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We've been in a technical recession now, but we've been in a technical recession with the bump in oil prices.
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So where does that leave us without the bump in oil prices?
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Hi, thanks for joining us. This is tplmedia.ca.
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I'm Mike, and today the topic, well, it is what everybody's talking about on a global front,
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an MOU that has been drawn up by the U.S., presented and negotiated with Iran.
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And today we're going to dive a little bit deeper into that topic to find out how this directly affects Canada.
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And to do that, of course, Paul Micucci, who does the deep dive on the numbers for us always and beyond.
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I appreciate you doing this because you've gone through this, almost every section of this MOU.
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And you've looked at it from a number of perspectives.
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kick us off paul what do you think overall this has uh done globally what do you think that this
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mou is going to do uh to the economy of the world oh my goodness well the world changes it forever
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you know and we talked about this on other shows mike it changes uh how transportation logistics
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happens throughout the world the global powers who secures what nation what nations eventually
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take over other nations it is it basically causes a chain of reaction which will impact
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every continent in the world every country so but you know i'm really really focused right now on
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canada because of course we live here and what impact it has on us and how we are so oblivious
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to the impacts i i am shocked that actually this summer everyone's just going off on summer
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vacation after this and when i looked at it i thought am i missing something because you know
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should we be more focused on how this is going to impact us because i think we thought okay
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you know the the us for all intensive purposes that are pulling out they've lost they've decided
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to back down and go come home and last night even you know it was interesting i don't know late late
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in the day yesterday the senate voted the u.s senate voted 50 to 48 with a bunch of republicans
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turning uh the to make the vote go through um empowering the wars act which is interesting
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that basically says he has to stop you you have to come home now you have to come home now which
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you know of course they're saying i have veto power because this is the house bill that's gone
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to the senate the senate finally passed it and he's saying no it won't have any impact it makes
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my life more difficult but i'll still get this mou done i'll still get the agreement done um but i
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don't know right it's it's it's kind of crazy because senator um wicker who is the arms services
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committee chair roger wicker from a republic from mississippi um i saw was tearing up the mou
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and just disgusted at how it had in his mind had uh downgraded or uh made epic fury look like it
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it was nothing and then now he's asking the really big question is where does the 300 billion dollar
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reconstruction fund money come from which is right now unanswered that's on the table who makes up
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that money within minutes of this uh occurring uh in the senate floor of course the iranian
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parliament and and you know this uh galabaugh of one of the parliamentary ministers and uh
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representing speaker yeah i came out and this is uh the islam is bad the islamabad understand that
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it's not the result of pressure and coercion but rather the result of the resistance and authority
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of the brave iranian nation um that's what he said on national television that's why
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the islamabad memorandum of understanding became and i like that he calls it it's very interesting
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uh became a declaration of america's defeat right well so now iran is saying okay he's got to go
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home he lost right that has a huge impact oh it does and i want you know for those of you and we
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want to spend a few minutes mike and just go through the mou yeah so i really wanted to go
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through um a little bit about what's going to happen so the biggest thing is it reopens the
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straight yeah right so you know whatever you have to say the straight controls one-fifth of our oil
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supply so now the U.S. is going to back off they said they're not going to uh you know be uh blocking
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the Strait of Hormuz so it now opens up the straight and they're going to go in and they're
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talking this morning or yesterday about sweeping it for landmines making sure it was all clear again
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and really rolling through right which as we're seeing now i don't know if you've noticed at the
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pumps the price of gas is starting to go back down it is yeah it's it's back into the realm of some
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sort of reality it feels like we're headed back to normal right back to normal the interesting part
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is remember before this happened normal was low right we were remember we were talking on shows
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a few months ago before uh the war happened about 60 58 we were even in calgary and they were
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complaining about it oh man you know things aren't so great they had several zero barrels which is
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you know they basically just keeping the flow going yeah uh at zero profit uh per barrel uh
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for a long time the the bottom had been hit i think in canadian oil by the time this occurred
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yeah exactly so it kind of breathed a new uh a new existence into that oil business here in canada
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yeah yeah we rode the wave so we've been you know it's interesting we we've been in a uh a recession
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you know uh technical how dare you yeah a technical recession as they're calling it but
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we've been in a technical recession now but we've been in a technical recession with the bump and
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oil prices so where does that leave us without the bump in oil prices we're about to find out
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yeah so you know the sugar coating is coming off the apple right now and quite frankly uh the prime
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minister's got to be saying oh now i've got a few more quarters coming i'm going to lose the
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advantage of the uh large exporting cost of oil right and i haven't got a pipeline going which
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we're going to talk about that in a minute yeah i don't have a pipeline going and i don't have
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the backdrop of that happening so when we did our last show on the technical recession that was one
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of the caveats we put on it it's going to just watch out if this war ends and and oil plummets
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right where does that leave us yeah so how do you feel about this i'm just gonna this is the
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you know the expert opinion keeping the root open helps stabilize gasoline prices transportation
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costs and inflation directly benefiting canadian households and businesses that sounds opposite
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to what we think the effect might be because if we're not if we're not beholden to our own oil
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dollars and we need the straight of her moves to subsidize this i really don't believe that to be
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honest with you paul i think that no i think that it will cause a destabilization in our economy
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because the price and value of our own oil is about to plummet right now this is we're going
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to get into in a minute what's going to happen to the reconstruction who's going to bear the
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costs how that's going to be passed down whether there are fees on the so that that's coming up but
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i want to say thanks to our research team for putting up a nice powerpoint for us to follow
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along and maybe what we could do is actually post that along with this episode so that you can follow
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along yep uh the restoration of commercial shipping yeah yeah so all of a sudden it's back
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so you know the we were starting to see the impacts it was funny i was going to order something
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yesterday and it was 500 and it had a 500 shipping cost that's a crazy yeah situation
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for those of you who do any shipping internationally you find that your shipping
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costs were starting to match your goods costs and so we were stopping right this yeah so you know
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hopefully that'll go back if i'm a manufacturer and i have global shipping challenges this one's
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has got to be hurting me right now well i think any petroleum byproduct uh which is an enormous
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amount of products that we use on a daily basis i think have been drastically reduced over this
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the agreement puts that back in place the partial removal of u.s sanctions on iran now you and i had
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a discussion about this we'll talk about that the united states could agree to ease selected
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economic sanctions in exchange for iranian compliance with security commitments and for
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canada the impact would be mixed according to some experts additional iranian oil experts would
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increase exports would increase global supply and lower energy prices but canadian consumers
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and transportation companies would benefit from lower fuel costs but at the same time
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lower oil prices reduce revenues investment and royalty income in alberta at a time where we're
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trying to get people interested in building a pipeline with us yeah we're not listen we we
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talk about this all the time we're not highly productive especially per capita having oil
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prices sink hurt us more than our manufacturing increase so quite frankly that's a challenge
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right now i mean we can't deny it we've been slow to build pipelines we've had you know carbon
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discussions that have gone on and on and on we have fuel emission issue and restrictions these
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are all the things that are back on the table again coming up for july 1 you know paul i can't
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understand i'm sorry this is a diversion uh forgive me i can't understand how canada is such a
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shipping hub such a transportation hub what the hell are we shipping transporting and handling