True Patriot Love - The Iran Update 06 24 26 - What's Next？

00:00:00.000 We've been in a technical recession now, but we've been in a technical recession with the bump in oil prices.

00:00:06.660 So where does that leave us without the bump in oil prices?

00:00:09.240 We're about to find out.

00:00:14.460 Hi, thanks for joining us. This is tplmedia.ca. I'm Mike, and today the topic, well, it is what everybody's talking about on a global front,

00:00:23.880 an MOU that has been drawn up by the U.S., presented and negotiated with Iran.

00:00:29.360 and today we're going to dive a little bit deeper into that topic to find out how this directly

00:00:35.240 affects Canada and to do that of course Paul Micucci who does the deep dive on the numbers for

00:00:40.980 us always and beyond I appreciate you doing this because you've gone through this almost every

00:00:47.700 section of this MOU yeah and you've looked at it from a number of perspectives kick us off Paul 0.93

00:00:54.040 what do you think overall this has done globally what do you think that this mou is going to do 0.87

00:01:03.080 to the economy of the world oh my goodness well the world changes it forever you know and we 0.96

00:01:09.600 talked about this on other shows mike it changes uh how transportation logistics happens throughout

00:01:16.080 the world the global powers who secures what nation what nations eventually take over other

00:01:22.300 nations it is it basically causes a chain of reaction which will impact every continent

00:01:30.780 in the world every country so but you know i'm really really focused right now on canada because

00:01:36.220 of course we live here and what impact it has on us and how we are so oblivious to the impacts i i

00:01:44.300 am shocked that actually this summer everyone's just going off on summer vacation after this and

00:01:50.860 when i looked at it i thought am i missing something you know should we be more focused on

00:01:57.180 how this is going to impact us because i think we thought okay you know the the u.s for all intensive

00:02:02.700 purposes that are pulling out they've lost they've decided to back down and go come home and last

00:02:09.020 night even you know it was interesting i don't know late late in the day yesterday the senate

00:02:14.300 voted the u.s senate voted 50 to 48 with a bunch of republicans turning uh the to make the vote go

00:02:22.860 through um empowering the wars act which is interesting that basically says he has to stop

00:02:29.020 you you have to come home now you have to come home now which you know of course they're saying

00:02:33.260 i have veto power because this is the house bill it's gone to the senate the senate finally passed

00:02:38.460 it and he's saying no it won't have any impact it makes my life more difficult but i'll still get

00:02:44.060 this mou done i'll still get the agreement done um but i don't know right it's it's it's kind of

00:02:50.620 crazy because senator um wicker who is the armed services committee chair roger wicker from a

00:02:58.140 republic from mississippi um i saw was tearing up the mou and just disgusted at how it had in his

00:03:06.220 mind had uh downgraded or uh made epic fury look like it was nothing and then now he's asking the

00:03:15.180 really big question is where does the 300 billion dollar reconstruction fund money come from which

00:03:21.420 is right now unanswered that's on the table who makes up that money within minutes of this uh

00:03:26.700 occurring uh in the senate floor of course the iranian parliament and and you know this uh

00:03:32.700 galabaf of one of the parliamentary ministers and uh representing speaker yeah i came out and this 0.72

00:03:38.620 is uh the islam is bad the islamabad understand that it's not the result of pressure and coercion 0.74

00:03:45.340 but rather the result of the resistance and authority of the brave iranian nation 0.81

00:03:50.540 that's what he said on national television that's why the islamabad memorandum of understanding

00:03:56.140 became and i like that he calls it that's very interesting uh became a declaration of america's

00:04:02.540 defeat right well so now iran is saying okay he's got to go home he lost right that has a huge

00:04:10.460 impact oh it does and i want you know for those of you and we want to spend a few minutes mike

00:04:15.180 and just go through the mou yeah sure so i really wanted to go through um a little bit about what's

00:04:21.420 going to happen so the biggest thing is it reopens the straight yeah right so you know

00:04:29.660 whatever you have to say the straight controls one-fifth of our oil supply so now the u.s is

00:04:37.820 going to back off they said they're not going to uh you know be uh blocking the straight of hermuz

00:04:45.100 so it now opens up the straight and they're going to go in and they're talking this morning or

00:04:49.660 yesterday about sweeping it for landmines making sure it was all clear again and really rolling

00:04:55.260 through right which as we're seeing now i don't know if you've noticed at the pumps the price of

00:05:00.540 gas is starting to go back down it is yeah it's it's back into the realm of some sort of reality

00:05:06.620 it feels like we're headed back to normal right back to normal the interesting part is remember

00:05:12.380 before this happened normal was low right we were remember we were talking on shows a few months ago

00:05:18.380 before uh the war happened about 60 58 we were even in calgary and they were complaining about

00:05:25.180 it oh man you know things aren't so great they had several zero barrels which is you know they

00:05:31.260 basically just keeping the flow going yeah uh at zero profit uh per barrel uh for a long time the

00:05:36.940 the bottom had been hit i think in canadian oil by the time this occurred yeah exactly so it kind

00:05:43.340 of breathed a new uh a new existence into that oil business here in canada yeah yeah we rode

00:05:49.420 the waves so we've been you know it's interesting we we've been in a uh a recession you know uh

00:05:56.300 technical how dare you yeah a technical recession as they're calling it but we've been in a technical

00:06:01.580 recession now but we've been in a technical recession with the bump in oil prices so where

00:06:07.420 does that leave us without the bump in oil prices we're about to find out yeah so you know the sugar

00:06:12.940 coating is coming off the apple right now and quite frankly uh the prime minister got to be

00:06:17.980 saying oh now i've got a few more quarters coming i'm going to lose the advantage of the uh large

00:06:24.300 exporting cost of oil right and i haven't got a pipeline going which we're going to talk about

00:06:30.380 that in a minute yeah i don't have a pipeline going and i don't have the backdrop of that

00:06:34.620 happening so when we did our last show on the technical recession that was one of the caveats

00:06:39.340 we put on it it's gonna just watch out if this war ends and and oil plummets right where does

00:06:45.340 that leave us yeah so how do you feel about this i'm just gonna this is the you know the expert

00:06:50.140 opinion keeping the root open helps stabilize gasoline prices transportation costs and inflation

00:06:56.060 directly benefiting canadian households and businesses that sounds opposite to what we

00:07:02.300 think the effect might be because if we're not if we're not beholden to our own oil

00:07:09.260 dollars and we need the straight of her moves to subsidize this i really don't believe that

00:07:15.020 to be honest with you paul i think that no i think that it will cause a destabilization in

00:07:19.900 our economy because the price and value of our own oil is about to plummet right now this is

00:07:26.220 we're going to get into in a minute what's going to happen to the reconstruction who's going to

00:07:29.740 bear the cost how that's going to be passed down whether there are fees on the so that that's coming

00:07:34.700 up but i want to say thanks to our research team for putting up a nice powerpoint for us to follow

00:07:38.540 along and maybe what we could do is actually post that along with this episode so that you can follow

00:07:43.100 along yep uh the restoration of commercial shipping yeah yeah so all of a sudden it's back so you know

00:07:51.580 the we were starting to see the impacts it was funny i was going to order something yesterday

00:07:56.860 and it was 500 and it had a 500 shipping cost that's a crazy yeah situation for those of you

00:08:04.940 who do any shipping internationally you find that your shipping costs were starting to match your

00:08:10.860 goods costs and so we were stopping right this yeah so you know hopefully that'll go back if

00:08:17.420 i'm a manufacturer and i have global shipping challenges this one's got to be hurting me right

00:08:22.380 now well i think any petroleum byproduct uh which is an enormous amount of products that we use on

00:08:29.500 a daily basis uh i think have been drastically reduced over this the agreement puts that back

00:08:35.660 in place the partial removal of u.s sanctions on iran now you and i had a discussion about this

00:08:42.380 we'll talk about that the united states could agree to ease selected economic sanctions in

00:08:47.340 in exchange for Iranian compliance with security commitments.

00:08:50.600 And for Canada, the impact would be mixed, according to some experts.

00:08:55.300 Additional Iranian oil exports would increase global supply and lower energy prices,

00:09:02.440 but Canadian consumers and transportation companies would benefit from lower fuel costs.

00:09:07.920 But at the same time, lower oil prices reduce revenues, investment, and royalty income in Alberta

00:09:13.920 at a time where we're trying to get people interested

00:09:16.300 in building a pipeline with us.

00:09:18.060 Yeah, we're not, listen, we talk about this all the time.

00:09:21.520 We're not highly productive, especially per capita.

00:09:25.140 Having oil prices sink hurt us more

00:09:28.260 than our manufacturing increase.

00:09:30.240 So quite frankly, that's a challenge right now.

00:09:32.960 I mean, we can't deny it.

00:09:34.420 We've been slow to build pipelines.

00:09:36.280 We've had, you know, carbon discussions

00:09:38.180 that have gone on and on and on.

00:09:40.480 We have fuel emission issue and restrictions.

00:09:42.660 these are all the things that are back on the table again coming up for july 1 you know paul

00:09:47.000 i can't understand i'm sorry this is a diversion uh forgive me i can't understand how canada is

00:09:52.440 such a shipping hub such a transportation hub what the hell are we shipping transporting

00:09:59.400 and handling the logistics for we're way up here in the north yeah but suddenly it's the major

00:10:05.380 industry in ontario seems to be shipping logistics and and so important to us that

00:10:12.600 this agreement will help us because it's going to bring fuel prices down for that industry

00:10:17.680 i'm so confused what are we shipping i asked an economics professor that on a show a few

00:10:23.980 a few weeks ago and his response to me was we're shipping raw materials and and i said no i don't

00:10:30.660 think so and he said no no we're rich in raw materials we're shipping them we're storing them

00:10:34.300 I'm shipping them abroad oh I said oh okay well last I looked you know lumber no mining slow

00:10:41.640 like I you know I said I don't really understand that I said you have to we missed LNG I don't

00:10:46.820 know how much we're shipping that around the world to be honest with you yeah we were late

00:10:50.080 by like seven years but Paul I mean there are trucks and trucks and trucks on the roads in

00:10:56.200 this country I have no idea what we're shipping if we're shipping raw goods why isn't that being

00:11:01.320 reflected in our gdp right i think that's importing i really do it's my belief that that's being

00:11:07.000 imported okay and i think it's being imported because of the tariff so people avoiding the

00:11:12.120 tariff i think they're thinking of ways to actually move money around tariffs through

00:11:17.160 tariffs you know looking for uh tariffs different different nations uh the higher and the lower

00:11:23.480 tariffs the variable tariffs create flow right so if i can get to a lower tariff country i can then

00:11:30.040 shipped through there i can try to get into that country and claim it as a good produced in that

00:11:34.440 country and then i can ship it from that country to another country and i just don't i don't know

00:11:38.440 for that savvy uh no i don't think we are but i think other nations are okay i think that's why

00:11:43.000 they're barely into canada and they're trying to move things through canada just putting it in

00:11:47.000 warehouses and keeping it here which the u.s continually tells us at the kuzma table is a big

00:11:52.360 issue so it's not like that exactly please don't do that especially on the chinese front yeah so

00:11:57.800 So we hear that, Mike, we hear that quite a bit.

00:12:00.060 Sorry, thank you for that diversion.

00:12:02.280 Limits on Iranian uranium enrichment.

00:12:04.560 Iran could agree to strict limitations in this agreement on uranium enrichment levels and stockpiles.

00:12:09.980 This was one of the original reasons we went in.

00:12:12.480 They're stockpiling all this potential nuclear Armageddon.

00:12:16.920 Well, as this vote is passing in the U.S. Senate, 50 to 48,

00:12:22.200 Trump is standing up and he's saying,

00:12:23.820 we have inspections happening right now in iran are about to happen in iran they're going in

00:12:29.840 they're going to look at the uh uranium they're going to look at the nuclear capabilities

00:12:34.700 the iranians are uh i can't remember they am the negotiator you just mentioned oh uh galibov yeah

00:12:42.400 he comes up and goes no they're not and they're not coming in yet we're still negotiating right

00:12:49.420 right so he's saying one thing again the other is saying no so we still have this to and throwing

00:12:55.920 right now people say how does this affect canada oh it gives us more global security and it's going

00:13:03.160 to give us stability in our economy because we're not being threatened in the middle east

00:13:07.020 but i should point out before all of this occurred i didn't hear about iran coming after us with

00:13:13.120 nuclear weapons i'm just no no no well we're going to see it in a minute because it's uh

00:13:18.800 the introduction i think of lebanon into the equation here yeah actually created some odd

00:13:25.120 dynamics which then it became everyone was like hmm i'm not sure this is about nuclear uranium

00:13:30.800 anymore right no this is about controlling an area a territory yes so i think that's kind of

00:13:36.080 where they got sideways but this was kind of one of the points in the movu i think this was number

00:13:40.800 seven or whatever it was midway through that they brought it up but but it was the original reason

00:13:45.360 we were told that this all was taking place exactly that's why you know we went in expanded

00:13:50.160 nuclear inspections uh this would permit expanded inspections by international nuclear watchdogs

00:13:56.000 i don't think historically and i could be wrong i don't think that iran has prevented the watchdog

00:14:02.000 uh community from being in there but this apparently is meant to create a greater

00:14:08.640 transparency yes yeah and uh we'll see how that goes uh the release of foreign detainees on both

00:14:16.560 sides uh they would agree to release detained foreign nationals and prisoners held as part of

00:14:21.920 diplomatic negotiations well uh direct economic impact on canada would be limited such actions

00:14:28.480 are often viewed internationally as confidence building measures they signal a willingness to

00:14:33.760 engage diplomacy and reduce tensions up and create a more stable international environment i hate

00:14:40.000 this element of the deal i'll tell you why it's a very simple one yeah it should not have anything

00:14:46.320 to do with this uh people incarcerated should be part of another arrangement this does not need to

00:14:52.160 be part of this deal this feels to me like uh the u.s giving in uh one more time saying okay yeah you

00:14:58.560 you can have your prisoners back um you know i i get it there are this is obviously an issue or

00:15:04.340 it wouldn't have made the paper but it just feels like a separate issue to me right and can't

00:15:08.120 canadians you know uh i'm trying to think is there are there any is there anyone impacted on the

00:15:13.540 canadian side that you know i don't believe so i mean i tried to understand how i think that this

00:15:18.360 isn't like the two michaels no no no no john or anything no really this feels like an extraneous

00:15:24.400 thing it doesn't really have much to do probably won't have much impact on on canadians at all

00:15:29.440 but you know i just point and the reason that i i put it in i didn't want to miss a piece of

00:15:34.080 the arrangement but to me this just seemed like one of those add-ins that make things difficult

00:15:42.000 yeah they always throw it in i would imagine the final version of this thing this is just

00:15:47.440 decorating on the cake yeah yeah i agree with you mike it's just fine uh reduction of proxy warfare

00:15:52.880 in lebanon syria in iraq this is interesting iran would agree to reduce support for regional proxy

00:15:59.040 groups operating throughout the middle east um once again a direct impact on canadians maybe not

00:16:05.920 but definitely a very interesting addition to this mou yeah how did this show up in the negotiations

00:16:13.040 you think well this is when israel you remember as they were trying to get a peace agreement in place

00:16:18.560 israel kept going in and bombing lebanon so they'd say don't bomb iran right don't go into tyran 0.67

00:16:24.320 that's like you know you got to stay out of there and then they right away they went in after the

00:16:28.080 hezbollah and then they went into lebanon now you know it's interesting i always look at this because

00:16:33.360 i find it very interesting we we've all focused on the fact that iran is a very big nation you

00:16:40.480 know it's 92 million people it's uh more than double the size of canada at 41 million lebanon

00:16:46.640 is very small i think it's like the 36th largest economy in the world who uh ran uh something like

00:16:53.200 that i think it it's it's the top 50 i'm pretty sure yeah it does but you know it's it's interesting

00:16:58.720 it's mostly for oil right right so so when i took a look where i'm going to come to that in a minute

00:17:04.400 um lebanon's five million people that's true right and his land masses so i took a look and i said

00:17:10.000 okay i was curious because we talked a lot about land mass you know we talked about the fact that

00:17:14.640 iran couldn't be attacked because the mountains and the caves and the underground well it's

00:17:18.560 interesting because um iran is only 1.6 million square kilometers okay right canada is 9 million

00:17:28.880 square kilometers right so we're less population eight times bigger and then you go to lebanon

00:17:35.040 lebanon's 10 000 square kilometers very small very tiny yeah it's a very tiny little nation

00:17:40.320 but it became a key it's amazing how pivotal this little country right with a fairly small

00:17:47.280 population now and you take a look at it now now you go to gdp right and you think to yourself okay

00:17:53.520 um you know what are the gdp uh numbers in these countries well you know it's it's interesting

00:18:01.360 because we have a larger gdp than iran in canada oh yeah so we're we're basically in us dollars i

00:18:12.720 did it all we're about 2.81 trillion they are roughly two two trillion dollars and that's

00:18:19.440 with all the oil experts that's wild to my mind because i i envision them as a an enormous economic

00:18:26.720 yeah no they aren't as big as i thought either and quite frankly now this is interesting when

00:18:31.040 you take the per capita gdp numbers and these are all i call it ppp so they're all foreign exchange

00:18:37.200 adjusted okay right and we can look at nominal gdp but um that takes into inflation and we quite

00:18:43.840 frankly it's crazy i'll just give you an example right the difference between our foreign exchange

00:18:51.040 adjusted gdp and our uh inflation adjusted gdp is only uh 400 billion dollars oh right so

00:19:03.520 the difference between uh their exchange adjusted gdp and their inflation adjusted gdp in iran

00:19:14.320 is two trillion dollars so they have a huge inflation right the economy the dollar everything

00:19:21.540 is way out of whack so the economy is totally upside down right we've known that for since we

00:19:27.040 got into this conflict right i'll be honest with you i didn't realize that they were so upside down

00:19:31.240 in their economy right and they don't honestly they export about a hundred billion dollars so

00:19:36.120 their exports are about a hundred billion dollars their uh imports are about 84 billion this is in

00:19:42.680 iran these are 2025 numbers that have it tough to get right these are all estimates by the way so

00:19:49.160 you know we dug through the team coming into this doug and doug and doug the numbers that you know

00:19:53.960 they don't like to go through and they don't like to disclose so but we found some great numbers on

00:19:58.600 this 80 million of 80 million roughly of their exports are oil so it's almost all oil so anything

00:20:06.760 moving through their economy is almost all oil to give you an ex a comparison our exports right now

00:20:14.520 are a huge amount of oil too but it's 736 billion dollars so on an annual basis they

00:20:21.080 they are really we are really a much bigger exporter right a smaller population bigger

00:20:28.440 land mass bigger exporter and a bigger importer of course because we're around 741 billion

00:20:35.000 their importing is only 84 billion now right the secret secret sauce for them is the straight

00:20:42.040 right it's not the oil that's it that's really that's what it shows and you know quite

00:20:47.000 their gdp per capita is very low at 21 uh thousand dollars so if you look at our

00:20:53.160 canadian gdp per capita this is only currency adjusted it's about 67 okay we're honestly

00:20:59.320 68 000 so a poor nation quite frankly uh wealth distributed really in in in equally yeah and huge

00:21:07.320 inflation so just to give you a feel for but you know if you look at all these and you think to

00:21:13.160 yourself wow these are some very interesting stats for a country that was able to rebuff the united

00:21:19.000 states you know which one i didn't even get into the numbers that's my thinking is like really the

00:21:24.600 us with all due respect and and i i even i made the points to you just beforehand you know here's

00:21:31.000 how you can tell the us has not won this war and if you go through the points it's stunning to me

00:21:38.360 that such a small country was able to put up such a big fight yes it was a big fight you know what

00:21:45.000 i mean i i don't you know we were told it was a big fight i'm that's yeah that's a good point i

00:21:50.040 know what you're saying yeah there wasn't a huge loss of life in this scenario but there was an

00:21:55.320 enormous expense to the u.s we did we did go to the periphery of the country and we did send

00:22:01.640 bombs and we did have air defense half trillion dollars or they did the u.s did they had air

00:22:07.640 defense systems they had all those things there was no land incursion there was no

00:22:13.160 launch of a ground defense so it really that's as far as it went right a half trillion dollars

00:22:21.040 that's almost as much as Mr. B spent on his Netflix series but you know what I mean like

00:22:27.940 it's it that's an enormous amount of money yeah it is it is that's economy changing money yeah

00:22:36.160 so I mean that is the one thing I think that we look at here is that they

00:22:40.380 that's a really interesting point that a country smaller than canada there you go canada just saying

00:22:47.280 was able to hold their own in a scenario that the u.s was unable to manage with a partner yes with

00:22:54.900 it with a regional partner yeah so it's very interesting and quite frankly you know to cap

00:23:00.040 off just some numbers to very just for interest uh today um basically it's three cents a liter

00:23:07.380 for gas inside Iran oh wow right okay uh we're we're today 131 us per liter yeah I paid 167

00:23:16.060 I think yesterday yeah exactly so that the conversion on us so they're just to give you a

00:23:19.680 feel uh what the price okay that's a good person I appreciate that perspective because really

00:23:24.520 you think of these countries as enormous powerhouses no of potential death and destruction

00:23:30.200 but then you realize it's an completely an equal economy it's the the wealth is distributed badly

00:23:37.240 high inflation yes very little export by comparison and they held their own that's a

00:23:45.800 that's a very interesting perspective on this yeah well and i i think that's that has downstream

00:23:52.460 implications for us in canada this was interesting to me what do you feel about this is this a

00:23:58.500 reality direct u.s iran communication channels right now all of the communication between these

00:24:04.320 two countries is done through third parties in other countries pakistan is a good example they

00:24:09.700 do it out of switzerland yep uh the agreement could establish permanent diplomacy or military

00:24:15.560 communication channels between washington and tehran tehran i think i say it wrong every time

00:24:21.720 my apologies uh i think this is a good thing if they can actually pull it off because i think

00:24:29.740 these intermediaries they wash their own clothes in the same water as these deals you know there

00:24:37.200 is no way pakistan is not trying to find something by being the negotiator of this what do they need

00:24:42.660 what's our what can be avoided in miscommunication and miscalculation through direct contact

00:24:50.480 oh yeah cripes well they need peace in the region for pakistan right because they're so reliant on

00:24:56.480 iran from a number of perspectives no i can see their perspective but also when when you're the

00:25:02.640 the negotiator there is i mean your self-interest as a nation must have to be included in there

00:25:09.600 oh yeah 100 that's why they're that's why they're pulling the us to the table exactly yeah they got

00:25:14.000 to get this thing stopped capped off um do you think we'll miss miss those third party uh

00:25:21.440 analytics and negotiators no no seems seems like a clunky way to do business no

00:25:28.000 uh it is but that's the way it's in the region that's the way it's been done you know since

00:25:32.080 jimmy carter and everyone else you know turkey used to step member turkey used to step in and

00:25:36.960 be the mediator then you know pakistan got involved and you know the allegiances over the

00:25:42.000 years you know we can spend a whole show with a historian going through the number of factions

00:25:47.760 that have changed you know become friends become enemies turned again with another nation coalitions

00:25:54.080 that died coalitions that started this this this part of the world is you know the stability is

00:25:59.680 never there right um you ever been in a negotiation there's a mediator involved and you know from the

00:26:04.880 onset that mediator has an agenda oh yeah for sure well the mediator tells you how wrong you

00:26:10.160 are right the hard part about having a mediator when you go into a room good mediators tell you

00:26:14.320 i don't think your position's that strong right right and then they go into the other room and

00:26:17.920 tell the other person i don't think your position's that strong so what they're doing is they're trying

00:26:21.840 to find the weakness and the first person to crack right okay the next one reduction of attacks on

00:26:26.800 commercial shipping seems like an obvious one that might maybe could have been number two or

00:26:31.680 three on the list but uh this would provide substantial economic benefit to canada in what

00:26:39.360 way i don't know well it just frees the oil price right again just the more the more it can freely

00:26:45.440 ship through the straight the oil prices go down the argument we made earlier does that actually

00:26:51.440 have a net net benefit to canada probably doesn't i don't know i mean our shipping well we're going

00:26:56.880 to see so here's the here's the litmus test we're going to live through mike in the next two quarters

00:27:02.800 in canada are we going to see an increase in you know are we going to be saying our technical

00:27:06.640 recession isn't a real recession because we've been propped up with oil prices based on the war

00:27:12.880 yeah do we actually have the framework to stay outside of a recession if this occurs a real

00:27:17.760 recession not even a technical recession that one that you know consumers and canadians at

00:27:24.160 by and large all feel yeah um so yeah no this is a i can't be a bad thing but of obvious it's once

00:27:31.280 Once again, an obvious one, return of Iranian oil to global markets.

00:27:36.280 This could allow Iran to significantly increase oil prices over time.

00:27:41.480 Canadian drivers, transportation companies, again, would benefit airlines,

00:27:45.780 which we didn't talk about much, but it's been heavily impacted here as well,

00:27:49.660 which impacts many things.

00:27:51.420 Manufacturers would likely benefit from lower fuel prices.

00:27:54.500 However, Canada's energy sector will face reduced revenues

00:27:58.580 if global oil prices decline substantially.

00:28:01.280 And as you point out, Paul, oil is a major factor of our export and GDP.

00:28:07.140 Oh, yeah.

00:28:07.660 So this has, in my mind, pretty negative effects potentially on Canada.

00:28:11.720 Oh, yeah, definitely has negative effects.

00:28:13.680 And, you know, the real key issue that we have to think about now is are they going to put a transfer fee on everything going through the strait?

00:28:20.280 So that was on the table, off the table.

00:28:23.000 So it's now part of, you know, the negotiation that's going forward.

00:28:26.560 So are we going to see an increase in prices in our oil and gas going forward?

00:28:31.280 as a transfer fee but remembering quite frankly that transfer fee strictly goes back to Iran

00:28:37.160 so that doesn't have any economic benefit to Canada other than a cost so that's not going

00:28:42.660 to help our economy no and and also the U.S. economy I was going to say or the U.S. yeah

00:28:47.360 uh this really and and okay so we'll get to the 300 billion down the road I wonder if this is part

00:28:54.340 of that you know settlement okay you'll be able to you'll be able to charge a uh i guess a toll

00:29:01.320 yeah as you make your way through the yeah and that will be part of the 300 billion so in other

00:29:06.100 words if that does happen the u.s has negotiated on behalf of all of us a an increase in cost to

00:29:13.520 our countries yes so and not an economic benefit not at all so you know again when the price of

00:29:20.900 oil goes up in canada you know the west coast actually we lived listen we can't deny it you

00:29:27.060 know in the harper days we all benefited from the increased cost of oil and gas right you know we

00:29:34.040 were we were a rich country we were flying because you know a barrel price per barrel was you know

00:29:39.720 just below 100 we were rocking development was happening on the west coast we were all seeing

00:29:45.360 the spinoff benefits everyone was heading west to work you know manufacturing back home the auto

00:29:50.840 industry was robust all those things were happening right now we're not in that now and

00:29:56.360 quite frankly a uh a tariff or a transfer fee on oil coming through the strait just increases the

00:30:02.680 cost of our all of our manufacturing again and makes us less yes so self-sufficient would be a

00:30:11.080 better scenario for us you know kind of okay so let me take a dive off to the left on this one

00:30:16.040 if i'm yeah let's go this is the moment where you think to yourself okay we really do need to think

00:30:22.760 about our own oil it's not going to be valuable in the global marketplace yeah we don't have uh

00:30:28.760 delivery mechanisms to make it efficient and a better deal for people in other countries

00:30:33.720 the last time that we found ourselves in this scenario uh thanks to jimmy carter i believe

00:30:39.560 we pivoted really in a smart direction as a nation and we started our own oil company

00:30:45.640 a national oil company that processed shipped became internationally uh well-known and and

00:30:54.040 quite a vibrant corporation petro canada yeah here we are uh let me share some of this with you

00:31:01.640 mark carney and uh daniel smith of course i met uh in when was it september i believe

00:31:06.920 october september or october something like that for the first time and then they uh got together

00:31:13.880 and put together an mou to create a pipeline so uh the deal lowers the effective carbon price

00:31:22.140 this is so crazy for alberta to 130 a ton by 2040 instead of 2030 and still we have

00:31:31.180 no this is a major project we have no plan for this no it's not a major project at july 1st

00:31:37.660 we're going to know if it's a major project coming up well it can't be a major project

00:31:42.300 two big two big things on july 1st mike right yeah kuzma with the united states and what happens

00:31:48.420 with the pipeline yeah well kuzma i don't think anybody's going to i think that i haven't got my

00:31:52.340 invite i think they forgot about it uh the provincial government have uh said that they'd

00:31:57.500 like to see the new pipeline up and running no later than 2033 out of alberta 2034 that's eight

00:32:03.680 years eight years to get this up and running uh but there's no answers whether or not they've got

00:32:09.160 anybody private to come in and back this and let's talk about that for a second why would they

00:32:15.000 no why would they what is the appeal to coming into a country that has such strict regulation 0.53

00:32:21.040 yeah it's going to take eight years to build the thing yep it goes through indigenous lands that

00:32:26.660 have not properly been negotiated through this thing already it's a bad investment by all accounts 1.00

00:32:32.740 we'll throw it up actually they haven't even figured out a route of north through northern bc

00:32:37.620 so i was actually looking this morning trying to find if they determined a route take a look at this

00:32:42.020 map what yeah okay so we'll throw it up on the screen for the show but there's three routes

00:32:46.340 they're still looking at they don't have a route determined they don't have anyone interested so

00:32:49.940 far in building the pipeline they don't have a timeline that's reasonable but it's okay here's

00:32:54.980 the thing mike here's that i find ironic it's okay for everyone to take the summer off it's okay for

00:33:00.500 us to you know relax a little yeah right on the heels of what's happening with iran so you know

00:33:07.380 there are and the funny thing is they'll say you know what it's a good thing you know well our

00:33:12.420 prime minister came out our prime minister came out and he said it he said you know i'm happy that

00:33:16.420 there's an mou being signed yeah okay i'm happy too right i'm happy when any war ends i'm happy

00:33:22.500 right but what are the consequences of that war ending and how does it impact us and

00:33:30.100 you know it's too easy to say oh thank goodness the war ended just in time for summer vacation

00:33:36.180 yeah so what what yeah i'm with you this is interesting i think that our our parliament

00:33:41.860 needs to be working visibly yeah for canadians right now saying here's how we're going to react

00:33:47.780 Our major projects need to step up now, and we need to add oil to that because of this, this, this, and this.

00:33:53.800 Here's the economic impact this whole thing has had on us.

00:33:56.660 Here's how we're going to react, and here's our plan.

00:33:59.580 Well, so think about our earlier conversation.

00:34:02.420 Our earlier conversation is the price of oil goes down, right?

00:34:06.540 So therefore, the economic benefits we get from the West Coast, from an increased price per barrel, go away.

00:34:12.800 We're in a technical recession.

00:34:14.060 manufacturing doesn't get spurred to go forward or increase so therefore we go further into a

00:34:20.460 recession so coming out of the summer he comes back and says wow we're in a really deep recession

00:34:25.000 now yeah we're in a really deep recession because you guys went away for the summer

00:34:29.680 right hello did nothing hello created no deals wake up didn't find somebody to back the pipeline

00:34:38.140 yeah it didn't get this a major project didn't get it going didn't increase the public confidence to

00:34:44.300 make sure you're going to be an energy giant again so now so now on top of you know you just brought

00:34:50.140 up emissions indigenous all the reasons why someone's probably not going to come on come in

00:34:55.180 and actually back this pipeline the question i have mike do we want someone to come in and back

00:35:01.980 the pipeline well that's my question foreign investment in our in our resources seems to be

00:35:08.300 what we do no but i mean we're doing it in mining but it's never to our benefit but given okay so

00:35:14.780 now this is this is you know we just went through all these and we have a few more to do which we'll

00:35:18.780 get to in a minute but now we've gone down this rabbit hole i want to go down this is the major

00:35:22.780 hole i think that this drags us into yeah now that the u.s has basically retreated or you know

00:35:28.380 they're basically you've read the mou or you're reading the mou you know you heard the vote last

00:35:33.260 night in the senate he's coming home right he's gonna pull his ships out they're all gonna you

00:35:38.300 know claim whatever you know they did that they're gonna claim some type of victory we created

00:35:43.660 security in the middle east security in the middle east we have a nuclear war pact whatever iran's

00:35:49.260 pretty confidently saying you know for such a small economic engine they did amazing against

00:35:56.380 the giant right so it's you know david and goliath for all purposes in their mind so they're they're

00:36:02.860 dumping their chest and they're saying we have control of the straight one-fifth of the oil

00:36:07.100 so now which is true it's not a lot you know you can't argue that that's what happened right

00:36:11.980 so now economic stability on the energy front is gone so we don't have you know before we used to

00:36:17.740 say oh if anything happened the u.s would step in therefore you know the energy sector should be

00:36:24.060 regulated through a group of people who set the pricing for it because quite frankly there's

00:36:28.700 security and peace through us being the global leader that no longer exists anymore so therefore

00:36:35.340 energy stability is no longer present the best you could do is try to create your own 0.62

00:36:41.580 you don't have to anymore so if there's no energy stability and you're reliant on a middle eastern 0.72

00:36:46.380 country to dictate what your prices are you should disconnect from them now there's no

00:36:50.620 market left you should disconnect you say bye bye you guys go on your own you know sell you know

00:36:55.500 you're going to sell to china you're going to sell to pakistan you're going to do that you got

00:36:58.940 to go we we as an energy rich country should go on our own and say okay we're done us we'll work

00:37:04.540 with you we're removing ourselves from the buying market yeah we don't need to worry about you know

00:37:09.340 international uh oil prices anymore quite frankly because why would we we don't control it we it's

00:37:16.300 an economic factor how could you how could you stably uh transact and set a pricing market with

00:37:25.820 a person that controls one-fifth of the oil we can actually tool that around to do whatever

00:37:31.740 they want with it they can do a transfer fee a fine they can transfer anything and you'd have

00:37:35.980 to pay it and your economy would be influenced by it why would anyone do that no it's hard to

00:37:41.500 justify especially now no you wouldn't do it you wouldn't it's crazy to do it so what we should be

00:37:46.540 doing is we should be setting down going back to i said it on a number of shows we should be looking

00:37:51.900 at the old petro canada model going back to it i know albertans hated it i get it right and then

00:37:58.060 uh but now it's a different world albertans hated it but they benefited the most in recent history

00:38:05.500 during that era but there was more jobs they were taxing more they were drawing more out of

00:38:11.020 the out of uh our own resources but think about it okay so now you know think about where you're

00:38:17.180 at now a little bit and i know albertans tend not to focus on this so if iran now says okay

00:38:23.180 we're paying three cents a liter i brought that up in the show yeah right i'm gonna take the price

00:38:28.140 per barrel down i'm gonna dip it now i'm gonna throw i'm gonna throw north america into a total

00:38:35.260 global recession but we right i'm gonna i'm gonna i'm gonna tank you right right we're gonna go for

00:38:43.100 that ride we're gonna go down to 30 a barrel for because they can run it out what do they have to

00:38:48.300 lose think about it they have nothing to lose they've honestly they have all the cards they

00:38:53.580 can ride for as long as they want right the provincial government said they'd like to see

00:38:58.780 the new pipeline up and running no later than 2034. how can we do a deal no no but that just

00:39:07.180 speaks to my point right how can we do a deal they have to do something right but but so i'm

00:39:12.460 sitting over and i ran i'm thinking those guys can't even build a pipeline in eight years don't

00:39:17.020 think about it like as bad if you're looking at as unproductive as they are quite frankly if you

00:39:21.820 said to them build a pipeline i guarantee those leaders would put a million people out on the

00:39:26.620 on on the fields putting pipeline up by hand they've been carrying the pipes across the

00:39:31.980 major project is right a major project is an inordinate amount of people from a nation are

00:39:38.780 put to work on a massive project that otherwise would not have any occurrence and at a time when

00:39:44.940 they need it the most this is let me read this to you you're going to go crazy when i read this

00:39:49.660 in a statement canadian climate institute president rick smith hire rick friend of the show

00:39:55.580 i said an agreement will put canada's target of net zero by 2015 well at a reach and to that i say

00:40:02.300 good uh ndp leader abby lewis meanwhile criticized the carney government and called the announcement

00:40:09.340 official surrender to the oil and gas lobby oh god really abby i mean all we've done is acquiesce to

00:40:17.740 virtue signaling about how we're the greatest we're going to save the planet i mean okay

00:40:24.620 so all of the opposition is out there the only the only opposition out there that really

00:40:30.460 seems to be behind getting an oil pipeline is are the conservatives and by what means i think is is

00:40:37.260 there yeah he wants to drop all the admissions he wants which is never going to happen no you're

00:40:42.380 never going to get full consensus on that all these things and he wants to sign it within 100

00:40:46.480 days i do like that though i truthfully his initiative to actually kick start it into gear

00:40:51.560 yeah within 100 days is great we're talking the fall so you know in in political terms when

00:40:57.240 someone says the fall they mean the spring yeah exactly okay frank said in the fall we will get

00:41:02.420 so if we get this done we'll start construction in the fall well let's be serious for those of

00:41:07.880 you who do any building no one starts construction on anything in the fall because we live in canada

00:41:13.880 and we have something called winter oh that's a good point yeah yeah every year and quite frankly

00:41:18.360 winter and that affects construction you say paul oh i'd like you to go to northern bc or alberta

00:41:24.360 and try to build something uh in the winter okay yeah good luck to you on that one right right so

00:41:30.520 that means the spring summer right we'll have a shot so no wonder it's going to take eight years

00:41:36.040 quite frankly it's taking us you know a year even get into ground after we agree to get into it right

00:41:43.800 yeah because we actually have to work with the okay so yeah by the way eb says as a country it's

00:41:49.140 time to stop rewarding bad behavior yeah well yeah that's his right you know uh if you if you

00:41:55.560 want to separate you know because you wanted to separate from the country if we give you the

00:42:01.560 ability to build a pipeline we're rewarding bad behavior right so we should switch to natural gas

00:42:06.960 and ev cars because that's what you know you'd like to do in bc which but the reason i illustrate

00:42:13.480 this is because ottawa can make a plan to green light a pipeline but we're we are miles and miles

00:42:21.640 from that possibility we can't even get consensus among our leaders to get to work on this

00:42:27.420 you know some virtual signaling some saying the market is not right one creating and by the way

00:42:33.760 we write more memorandums of understanding you know paul i understand everything in this deal

00:42:40.980 could we have the deal now but why do we do mous and then never get to the actual deals well an

00:42:47.740 mou when you don't have a third so you don't even have a third party at the table that wants to do

00:42:53.360 it exactly so so it's interesting because you know our offshore pipe our offshore uh oil drilling

00:42:59.140 we now uh down on the east coast have brought norway in yeah equinor to help us out a little

00:43:05.320 to increase production so which is a good thing but again we're bringing other countries in to

00:43:10.960 do what we should have done so a country like Norway who's actually created a massive wealth

00:43:15.840 fund out of their oil and gas industry when we got out of it so we're making the same twist and

00:43:21.280 turn again we're relying to another country to come in and bail us out take the funds back home

00:43:27.040 to their country treat us like a vendor take our own resource and treat us like a vendor of our own

00:43:33.280 resource and then take the wealth back to their nation so their peoples can have better better

00:43:38.880 healthcare can have better quality of living what are we doing no what are we doing at this point

00:43:45.040 we gotta kind of wake up this is a resource that we need to channel for the benefit of our own

00:43:51.360 people through pipelines that for oil that sold to other nations and sold to us back home to

00:43:57.920 decrease our price of gas and oil so we can actually manufacturing things at a cheaper price

00:44:04.000 it's it's 101 economics anyone who cannot figure that out i i really do struggle with at this point

00:44:11.120 mike you know it's interesting because you point this out and as you're talking i'm thinking about

00:44:16.160 all of the other things that occur when you do this when you just say that okay we're going to

00:44:21.200 work on this pipeline we've started our own uh we're going to do our own processing we're going

00:44:25.840 to supply our own nation with fuel oil heating oil you know industrial oils and all the products

00:44:32.960 associated with it the petroleum byproducts we're going to start to harness that ourselves

00:44:38.000 think about what that does to the world market on canada's behalf the perception of canada as

00:44:43.360 a world power starts to reignite yeah the uh people working on all of these projects are

00:44:50.320 are doing very well financially and the economy is starting to rebound because of it i don't

00:44:55.600 understand why we have to fight it so hard well the funny thing is we're going to we're going to

00:45:00.400 washington right now and we're asking for meetings and we're not getting them still

00:45:06.000 why would we we have a warehouse here avoiding tariffs on the u.s norway pulls out an investment

00:45:11.840 in caterpillar in the united states yeah i saw that right and the president calls them

00:45:16.800 to ask them to put their to for their wealth fund investment to go back into the country

00:45:22.240 so they have so much swag that they can realign those dollars and have the president call them

00:45:28.400 to talk about where the dollars are going think about that think about that and that is this

00:45:33.200 policy decision made in 1980 by the Mulroney's and by Brian Mulroney and his government that took us

00:45:40.240 out of Petro Canada right supported by the next Liberal government quite frankly so it was

00:45:45.360 disassembled by two governments they both have their fingerprints on it it's not exclusive to one

00:45:50.880 and they took us out of it and quite frankly from then on our oil and gas

00:45:56.480 uh saga has continued uh through the history of the country to this day and that's so sad that

00:46:02.960 we did that and we still cannot see that our policy decisions of today or lack of policy

00:46:10.240 decisions are driving us remember back in the 80s you'd get a stereo system you'd start with the uh

00:46:15.840 the tuner then you get the graphic equalizer right and then the the nakamichi dragon yeah

00:46:21.120 set deck i remember and and then oh wow and then you would get the best speakers and before you

00:46:26.160 knew it you had this amazing sound system and three years later you sold it for 300

00:46:31.200 uh through a classified ad that seems to be what we do every time we build something rather than

00:46:37.040 enjoying the music coming out of that stereo system for 20 years that it has a lifespan of

00:46:43.200 and making good use of it we build it up and sell it off immediately yeah as soon as we've

00:46:48.800 got something we're willing to discount it and get rid of it because we desperately need the cash

00:46:53.600 for something else yeah but why do we desperately need the cash i don't know i don't know i could

00:46:58.480 never figure out what we desperately needed it's always budgetary oh we're going to offset the

00:47:02.800 budget you know here's you know it's one of those things the books balance themselves for five

00:47:07.680 minutes yeah but yet but yet we've continually had bigger deficits so we've we've taken that

00:47:13.120 strategy and it's only drove us further into a hole right yeah hey i want to bring up mike and

00:47:18.320 it's one other thing before and i don't want to lose it yeah because quite frankly as we go through

00:47:22.960 all these items but we're almost at the end this reconstruction the 300 billion dollars

00:47:28.880 yeah that's on the table it's disturbing americans to no end well it is because they don't want to

00:47:33.920 pay it right right i'm going to say this about canada before we end the show i don't want to

00:47:39.360 pay it either and i don't want to pay a tax or a tariff or a transfer fee to pay it i'm not

00:47:46.640 interested in paying it you know we didn't participate no we didn't no we didn't advise

00:47:53.520 we didn't have anything to do with it why do i feel like we're going to get dragged into covering

00:47:58.560 the cost well and and are we gonna listen i i'm with you and i i'm going to just be so upset if

00:48:06.000 i'm sitting there and there's a podium and we're standing on the podium you know dedicating x 0.91

00:48:12.000 billion dollars to this fund because what is that group the peace uh oh the ccc the uh creepy cretin 0.90

00:48:21.360 club oh no no i'm sorry the board of peace the board of peace yeah the board of peace right 0.94

00:48:26.320 let the board of peace that we got kicked off of or we got denied entry to let uh them pony up the

00:48:34.320 money that's what it was built for right i was the three ways and let's stay out of it quite frankly

00:48:40.480 So who's going to pay for this?

00:48:41.440 The Middle East and North Africa, Europe and Eurasia and Asia and the Americas.

00:48:48.020 Great. 1.00

00:48:48.580 And let them.

00:48:49.800 Great, frankly.

00:48:50.440 If they feel that it's beneficial, I can see how a lot of those people should pay for it.

00:48:55.460 Do you think that that is the group that's going to be on the hook for it?

00:48:57.860 I think that's probably the first group that starts a discussion of where the money's coming from.

00:49:02.380 Can you imagine joining that club, how disappointed you are right now in your membership?

00:49:06.600 Oh, my God.

00:49:07.240 First of all, I thought I was just posing for a pitcher at Davos.

00:49:10.480 i didn't know i was signing up no no but but where else is the money going to come from i don't know

00:49:15.680 this americans are going to go bananas if he's he's going to pony up some money i'm sure but

00:49:20.160 he's going to come back and say i'm only ponying up like 1 30th of the money or something and the

00:49:25.680 rest of the nations are going to come to the table to rebuild iran so you bobbed iran right you went

00:49:32.080 in you made the decision to bomb iran now you're going to go back you're not i find it interesting

00:49:38.720 in the news today he's their americans are arguing about unfreezing the assets of iranians

00:49:45.040 when you told me this i thought this was stunning how much in the way of assets did they have frozen

00:49:49.840 it's 12 to 18 billion dollars frozen somewhere you know but listen to what they want to do this is

00:49:55.680 this is a really strategic move yeah this is very interesting trump is saying that they're going to

00:50:00.160 actually use the monies to buy food and medical uh equipment and and medicine for the iranians

00:50:08.720 So just ship it down from U.S. companies. 0.90

00:50:12.220 So he's going to use the money, spend it inside his own country

00:50:14.940 to help pay for some of the pittance compared to what he spent on the war.

00:50:18.800 Yeah, right.

00:50:19.320 But quite frankly, he's justifying using the money in trust.

00:50:24.800 So that money is just going to go back into the U.S. economy.

00:50:27.360 Why do I feel like that's going to be a sticking point in this whole arrangement?

00:50:30.540 That one small amount of money.

00:50:32.980 Not that it's small, but you know what I mean.

00:50:34.780 in the grand scheme for a nation the size of of iran as you see from the economy it's a big deal

00:50:41.100 it's a big deal for them and quite frankly it was their money you know and i don't know how it was

00:50:47.980 you know earned or transferred but it is their money and quite frankly uh i see what their point

00:50:53.740 is to get it back but yeah but again i i as a canadian do not want to be on the hook for any

00:50:59.020 of that i don't really have an interest in it not only that stay away from it we you know we continue

00:51:03.820 we've we've done our bit our bit quite frankly has been in the ukraine in the russian war we've

00:51:09.900 done give we've given excessive amount of money there i think that's been our contribution we

00:51:14.860 should leave it at that entering in to go to the middle east and try to fund reconstruction funds

00:51:22.220 you know let the u.s if the u.s if the u.s decides it's that important to them

00:51:28.220 they went there they started it they went to do it they should deal with it

00:51:31.580 i couldn't agree more i really do feel bad for the uh the club of creepy cretins uh the board 0.96

00:51:39.200 of peace i really do think these countries had no intention of being dragged into anything like

00:51:45.940 this maybe one or two of them i think they were trying to remember this was a time i mean israel

00:51:50.640 is on the list i should point that out but you know aside from them who really wants to go to

00:51:55.920 war who wants to pay for war that the u.s wages well and it was a time of tariffs right and so

00:52:02.160 remember when this was getting done this was right after davos remember he did this kind of on the

00:52:06.620 heels of davos when coming out of it when all those speeches i'm taxing the world every well

00:52:11.340 and mark carney was giving his big davos speech so out of this he created it people were on and

00:52:16.700 off it he was making decisions because you know yeah he was taxing the world he was creating

00:52:21.300 tariffs and you know he was standing remember the remember that on the lawn of the white house with

00:52:24.900 those boards how much everyone was going to pay and you know it was very theatrical right it was

00:52:30.240 yeah yeah and even this was a theatrical move it was so weird because you looked up at this group

00:52:35.160 of people and you went none of them have anything to do with proximity to America at all no I don't

00:52:42.880 it was hard to figure out I don't I'm sure they were trying to define what they were doing did

00:52:47.520 see them look at each other like why are we here uh okay this is uh this is a good overview of the

00:52:57.840 deal i appreciate you doing this paul because i do think that we feed ourselves a lot of nonsense

00:53:03.440 about the benefits to what's going to happen in this deal when really what we need to do is take

00:53:08.240 a i would agree with you 100 this is a moment for us to reflect and get to work get to work

00:53:14.160 like really get to work now we we this isn't when i say we let's specify because we do that a lot

00:53:20.160 here yeah we i'm not an elected official no the government government get back to work we got to

00:53:24.880 move now so it's you know not a time to be taking time off and reflecting yeah all right well look

00:53:32.480 uh subscribe to this channel and to your local channel uh and get behind what we're doing i

00:53:38.560 will point this out in the coming months you will be able to participate in our debate area you'll

00:53:43.520 be able to participate in our think tank area which we will take messages directly to the government

00:53:50.480 from that group join us become part of the group become part of our movement

00:53:55.040 and we'll see you next time thanks paul thank you

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True Patriot Love - June 30, 2026

The Iran Update 06 24 26 - What's Next？

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