Venezuela Oil Shock Could Crush Canada
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Summary
In this episode of the Tall Tales Podcast, we are joined by Dan Marteague, an expert in the field of Venezuelan oil, to discuss the current situation in Venezuela and its impact on the world oil supply chain.
Transcript
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well the reason was narco trafficking and now nick maduro has been uh pulled out of power by
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the u.s and really that's the last i heard of narco trafficking since then mainly the discussion
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has been oil and so when it comes to that topic here at tpl we always head to uh the realm of
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dan mcteague thanks so much for joining us dan and uh hopefully adding some uh depth to this that
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we're only getting in sound bites uh right now uh before our discussion began today i pointed out
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and uh we had this discussion there's not many people that are experts in this country on oil
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uh like you so i'm delighted to have you with us thanks so much my great beer thanks very much and
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yeah i was wondering what the new year would look like i didn't have to wait very long to figure it
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we were going to be very busy and it all comes down to one well two words uh canada's big mistake
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and that's zero but i'll explain that later yeah okay well that's uh that's a great place for us to
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land uh in this discussion for sure one of the uh things that i'd love to do out of the gate is kind
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of paint a picture for canadians uh we've all heard the news we all understand what's going on i'm not
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entirely sure that i understand uh the legality of what uh what the u.s has done here or what the effects
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will be but as i point out dan this really what we're talking about here uh has gone from narco
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trafficking safety quickly to oil as uh this morning we're hearing that oil is coming out of
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uh venezuela and headed to the u.s almost in in the form of reparations or something i don't even
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understand that can you give us a more rounded picture on where we stand right now with this
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uh entire problem yeah sure venezuela's largest uh supplier of uh the largest reserves of oil in
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the world over three uh billion provable barrels that's a lot of uh barrels if you consider the
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world's consumption is about uh you know in the vicinity of a hundred million barrels a day so on
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its own i mean you could see how their reserves or proven reserves could last and keep the world
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going for a very long time if they had to but what's critical is understanding the role venezuela
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played prior to the uh arrival the takeover by uh hugo chavez um back 15 20 years ago and where that
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industry stood venezuela had the cheapest largest uh plentiful abundance of oil that had exported to
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the world but mostly to the united states they would uh you know operate through their own national
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company and several other companies get product to the united states gulf coast now why is that important
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why is houston important why is texas and you know uh louisiana alabama uh that region of the united
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states so important from an oil perspective not just because the drilling and where the
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where their proximity to west texas and original texas uh and oklahoma drills of 150 120 years ago
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it's also home to the refiners that produce half of all the fuel consumed in the united states and just to
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make this more interesting the united states is still the largest consumer of oil in the world it's
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not china it's not india it's the united states so access to the u.s market is uh is is critical not
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just for americans but also for countries that want to uh you know improve their economies and uh venezuela
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did much of that by getting most of its oil to the u.s gulf coast three three and a half million barrels a
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day that fell to about a million barrels uh in terms of production and none of that went to the united
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states after it imposed sanctions on uh the socialists that had basically stolen uh the assets
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that uh were owned by american companies but not limited to american companies but such as exxon not
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a small company uh conoco phillips not a small company and uh messed around even with chevron the
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effect of which was to reduce and pretty much eliminate venezuela's exports of its oil to the u.s gulf
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coast in the meantime a little country to the north named canada said we can get that uh oil to you
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the same heavy oil you need and why is heavy oil i know the people on the left like to disparage it
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no heavy oil no diesel yeah it seems like yeah so we seem to be one of the biggest suppliers of uh
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of heavy oil for diesel uh potentially in the world exactly and so i mean everybody has various slates
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of oil canada has a little bit but we have heavier oil and people who do ride it don't really understand
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that its properties are that you can produce anything with heavy oil but most notably for the
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purposes of economies being functional uh you know diesel is the global workhorse and you can't
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make it using light tight shale oil and you don't want it coming from countries that have you know
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pretty dodgy reputations on human rights and on environment and so canada became a real obvious
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no-brainer and how they did it mike was they the pipelines that went from houston or went to texas
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and then made their way into north into oklahoma to what's a place called cushing cushing oklahoma is the hub
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for west texas intermediate when you hear oil price well it's always wti at least for us in north america
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so a critical spot that got most of its oil certainly most of its heavy oil from venezuela that changed
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and over the period i would say 210 to about 218 216 we reversed a number of pipelines south of illinois so
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that oil wouldn't be flowing from u.s gulf coast because there's none left all the way up to illinois
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uh instead it was canada oil going to illinois then making its way and then some through the
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existing keystone pipeline right down into the u.s gulf coast such that 900 000 barrels of canadian oil
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that didn't didn't have a market before are now finding their way to the u.s gulf coast about 2.4
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million barrels of the what we sell to the united states goes to the u.s midwest and so
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we uh we have a pretty large presence in united states what worried me most on sunday after i
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heard about the uh removal of maduro was the great reality that uh we had to now accept and that was
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that we are going to see a resumption of venezuelan oil into the u.s market displacing canadian oil and
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making a complete mockery of the fact that we've spent 10 years dithering uh you know uh naval gazing
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and uh you really uh call it what it is uh you know thumb sucking over the idea that somehow we had to
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be the world's international boy scouts and girl guys when it came to climate such that we had to
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decarbonize our own oil no other country does this but no canada has to decarbonize this oil in order to
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be able to sell because we want to be virtually signaling unfortunately we're about to have
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our backsides sent to us because we are we could lose that market and we could lose it in a much
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shorter period of time than so-called experts are telling us yeah you raise a good point it seems
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like uh in many ways canada finds itself uh virtue signaling around the world whether it's uh i and
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you know what i'll i'll take heat for this but i am and this is a great example with oil but in many
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ways we're out there acting like way too big for our britches uh in the global uh in the global uh
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theater uh you know whether it's peacekeeping or uh resources uh fuels and gas all of this sort of
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stuff we tend to uh want to be the most virtuous out there at our own expense uh now this is something
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i just started to understand if you if the price of oil changes even slightly albertans for example
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the price per barrel in canada is a significant marker and it has a big impact on us can we talk
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a little bit about that with uh with this new potential oil arriving from venezuela yeah so that
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oil might come for free to a large extent to be uh money uh rather uh in in the form of uh reparations
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that venezuela or at least its oil will have to cover for the uh for the theft if you will of the
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socialists in venezuela who stole the property of belonging to exxon and chevron and conoco phillips
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and a host of others including companies from india some from south korea those are much smaller
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but the claim is that uh if it's several billions of dollars uh these companies may very well be able
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to get that back by getting not by demanding the venezuelans pay for it because they can't
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uh but by getting uh you know other than royalties going back to the government to sustain it
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uh that they may be able to get this at a much cheaper price now i just want to make people
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understand something canadian oil cannot be uh produced it cannot be uh made possible for under
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40 bucks a barrel we're at 44 right now so if it's coming in zero in in the us if it's coming from
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venezuela zero we're not competitive at all for at least a period of time and it seems to me that during
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that period of time new arrangements for that oil could easily be made out of venezuela under new
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terms with the us precisely and we now know that venezuela was only able to put out about a million
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not even quite a million barrels a day but as of yesterday the only country that was picking up
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most of that oil was china it was told to basically pack up and get out and the contract was was shut
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down so there's a million barrels now sitting out there guess where that's going and it's going to
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go there a lot sooner than the 10 years some of the uh oh the experts who've been around this for
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five or six years and suddenly understood this i've been to venezuela i've been in the united states
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i've worked in this industry since 1995 both as a member of parliament and in the in the in the real
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sense from the consumer's perspective but 40 is the number i'm looking at canadian oil drop to
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lower 40 you're going to start to see some shut-ins and you're going to start to see revenues drop and
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you're going to start to see not just for the alberta government you're going to start to see that
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impact the canadian government and so we've been we've been pretending prancing around you know
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playing this idea that we can somehow do without oil and our economy will just flourish and all this
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money will come in and there'll be investments on green energy and all sorts of other nonsense
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after 10 years of that we are going to see a much higher level of debt federal because of course the
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revenues uh that come in from the oil and gas sector are substantial net 25 30 billion dollars
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every year on what we currently have in fact what we currently have is about to be compromised or
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lessened then it's going to have a direct impact on the finances of the country which means of course
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higher interest rates it means a higher debt it means a number of implications in terms of
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joblessness and canada becomes less attractive you don't take my word on how less attractive we are
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because it takes 138 canadian pennies to buy one us dollar that's adding 35 40 to the cost of
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everything no wonder grocery prices are through the roof no wonder we feel like we're losing this great
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battle why because we made a stupid move in 2015 to say we are going to shut ourselves in and we are
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going to become virtue signalers on something over net zero that has been extraordinarily damaging to
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canada we see the damage being done in europe it's far worse for canadians who decided we're not
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going to build lng we're not going to build pipelines we're going to block all these things
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and basically cut our nose off to spite our faces we have choked the golden goose and now we're about
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to pay for it it seems to me that uh there's a lot of discussion of uh the carney says i've got an mou
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for a pipeline uh you know uh net zero does it does it seem like we can at some point start to walk back
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from this have we virtue signaled too hard in the world to say okay we've got to open up new ways
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to uh access our resources we need to uh or once you ring that bell it's you know really difficult
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to unring it yeah i mean you can't unscramble eggs i've been on this since 2017 2018. i left gas
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buddy in the united states to be able to focus on where canada was going the deterioration of our
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standard of living which is why affordable energy made so much sense drive up the price of energy you
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you see that an appreciable drop not only the ability for people to make ends meet and pay for
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things but also drive away the very uh you know that one of the major engines of uh of economic uh
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prowess that we have in this country uh you know net zero isn't just about a concept it's it gave
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you the carbon taxes the first one which uh we suspended temporarily the consumer carbon tax we still
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have the clean fuel standard by the way gasoline's gone up two cents a liter no one knows that
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because they don't follow it the way i do but it's up two cents a liter it's going to us 20 cents a
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liter to displace the previous one and we have the obps the uh the industrial carbon tax now as far as
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the mou is and of course we have apart from that zero the ev mandates i worked at toyota canada public
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relations i know exactly what was going to happen i predicted these would be failures colossal failures
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once people realized what was involved the cost the shortcomings uh the inefficiency the unreliability
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all these things that they had to be massively subsidized by hard you know by our hard tax
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dollars by people who could hardly make ends meet it made no sense it was a recipe to destroy the
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canadian standard of living it still is the longer the liberals and their buddies and the ndp and the
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greens and the bloc continue to cling to this the less likely it is you're going to have a country
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that's going to be able to survive economically over the next decade it's already i don't know what you
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what you mean we we made beautiful battery plants and uh oh yeah we need uh we need to resource
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certain minerals to um to make those batteries and also uh the companies are gone this the writing on
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the wall here i mean even a guy like myself could have seen this three four years out that if we are
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trying to replace what we naturally have and the access that we could easily have to resources in our
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own country providing jobs providing export at a better value um you know i'm surprised if the
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industry didn't also see that and certainly the government dan how do we get back into the oil game
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is there uh is there a road back that you can see there is and it would be if i were prime minister
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dan mctegg tomorrow morning i would tear up that stupid mou and say you're not going to impose any more
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burdens on getting canadian product to market and you're going to use your federal authority to say
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the pipeline is approved now based of course on northern gateway now who's going to invest well we
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now know in the past 72 hours investment has pretty much dried up or to a large extent been compromised
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by the fact that our dithering has given opportunities for new events to emerge geopolitically
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that have put us at a at a disposition we paid 50 billion dollars out of the taxpayers pockets to
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build the transmount pipeline expansion because we had fruit cakes and nut jobs going around saying we
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should not be building pipelines and we should block pipelines right beside the existing pipeline uh tmx
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which has been there since 1953 without yeah with zero incidents so look we have snookered ourselves
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don't blame the rest of the world but if you have a guy like mark carney if i was a smart mark carney
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i'd be going out saying to china you just lost 800 000 barrels of oil how about picking up some from
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us that would create the investment and the climate that they we would need to maybe fulfill the idea
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of rebuilding northern gateway but as i said earlier it takes resolve by the federal government you're not
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going to get it from a bunch of liberals whose only support was you know being a bunch of el bozos
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who've gone and basically said oh we can spend our way into more debt you know we can make this
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about your work while killing the very sectors and by the way mike i don't want to be too too hard on
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this i'm not just talking energy i saw a stat this morning it showed that canada's manufacturers have
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dropped to almost zero their investment in new equipment no new equipment no productivity no
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productivity no economic gain we are in a free fall and the only way to stop it is to basically say the
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stupidity of 2015 and our obsession with net zero and wokeness and dei has got to come to an end or
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there will be no country it seems like uh an investment in oil in canada right now is the kind
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of investment that you make in an underdog uh you know it doesn't seem like a bright investment for
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many people on the heels of oh look the american market one of their biggest buyers is about to get
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free oil uh you know it's uh heavily i don't know how you feel about uh actually processing oil into
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the the fuels here in canada but doesn't seem to be something we do we send a lot of that to the
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states it goes to billings as you point out uh into into the midwest as well i don't know if that's a
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solution for this but the one thing that i do think is that as an investment in oil right now canada
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looks like a tough game canada has the capital uh and has made the capital investments in refineries
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yes we've shut down refineries i dealt with that 25 uh years ago when i was a member of parliament uh
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you might record remember this little gem produced in what year is that 1998 so i wrote that on gasoline
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pricing so i'm not new to this business but you know refineries not the issue the irony is that
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we're going to send your refined product if you still don't have pipelines to send it that's true i
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mean a lot of people no wonder no one wants to make investments but a lot of refiners have bulked
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up we have little pipelines that uh like for instance if you're in winnipeg all your gasoline
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comes from saskatch from saskatchewan or even as far as away as edmonton much of my oil that i'm
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using here in toronto ontario milton ontario comes from out west through line five through michigan so
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pipelines have been the solution the fact that we have attacked them that we have uh as we say in
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frenchies they actually targeted to uh to prevent these things from being built is nothing short of
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reckless irresponsible and a form of economic vandalism likes which we're paying for today
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take a look at venezuela for me three years out if you don't mind dan in your mind what do you see
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venezuela's back to pumping three million barrels a day remember it isn't about the decrepit nature of
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what maduro did and what chavez did i mean the biggest challenge venezuela faces today in terms of
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production of oil uh is the is the takeaway it's diluent now like canada you have to mix it with
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lighter blends in order to make it flow better the stuff that's in the orinoco belt is heavy it's
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more or less the surface of what we have in canada's take steam to get it out in most cases you have to
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upgrade it that's that's a very expensive process the operators have not been kept to date but they can
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be done so very quickly given that the infrastructure is there the fact that it needs to be rehabilitated
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is uh is small potatoes when you consider the money's already there in terms of reparations
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these companies can take advantage of but the two biggest obstacles diluent as i mentioned can now
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be made possible the united states can send it there and they can start getting a few hundred thousand
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more barrels of oil a day and that can happen in the next six months if not sooner and of course the
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other one sanctions they're over they're finished sanctioned oil is not going to the united states
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donald trump the president announced last night he's getting 50 million barrels now
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a purchase from venezuela it'll help venezuelans but also help americans that oil coming to the
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united states means there's no longer need for canadian oil so well done canadian fanatics who've
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gone out and said no canadian oil you may not like the product but the product pays for your hospitals
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it pays for your pensions it pays for your social programs and how do i know yeah i spent some time
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both in cabinet and as a member of parliament for 18 years as a liberal and i know how important this
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was why when i wrote this report you'll see was embargoed uh embargoed to 1 p.m wednesday june 10th
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1998 both kretz and martin came up to you martin's finance minister and kretz saying nervous said what
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the heck you have in that report because it was written by about 30 liberal members apart when i was
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chair i said uh it's all about the downstream it's all about uh retail gasoline why questions and it was
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martin pulled me aside and said dan we're producing and selling about a million barrels of oil a day
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we can go to two maybe even three million barrels the next few years that's how we're going to pay
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down the debt you remember in 1997 1998 we were the country that was uh targeted by the imf as being
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the honor honorary future members of its uh unders tutelage you don't want to be in that position
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that's what scared them they recognize that you can't crap on the oil industry like it or not and i'm
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from ontario and i fought uh you know i i was there around long enough when i ran a national
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energy program and yeah when i was a young liberal uh turk in the riding if you will working for the
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liberals paul cosgrove at the time and i've got the receipts to prove it um god i did a lot when i
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was young nevertheless you're not slowing down dan i'll be honest with you it's too much and i'm saying
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look the institutional memories of what's happened and what's what's taking place when paul martin and
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john crescent said we can't make ends meet without alberta oil getting to global markets at that time
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one million now today four or five million the threat that might be reduced back to three million
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well that's going to cost uh you and i and we're going to see our deficit in this country blow up
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investments will walk away jobs will be lost and the uh the effect will be cataclysmic now
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someone's going to say oh it's only three or four percent of your gdp i hear them all the time
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yeah well 70 of your economy is based on service nothing wrong with that 30 has to produce to make
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that 70 and if part of that 70 is civil servants how the hell you think you're going to keep your
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job much less your pensions if you don't have gdp someone making uh you know making revenue
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our gdp keeps dropping below the line we've seen it six times in the last 12 months uh and it's all
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based on the manufacturing sector failing uh the lack of production of our own resources and and exports
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it is a frightening experience to know okay one major resource that we could be tapping into with
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a market that's natural to us we just let it go um what should canadians in your mind be saying to
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their politicians and to the federal government at this point um to to get it turned around what is the
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one thing that would uh terrify politicians and our federal government into uh making us a better
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producer of our own resources you want to come after donald trump you want to stop your elbowzo
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routine that you were engaging in several months ago get canadian oil to alternative markets we have 12
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countries that showed up in the past four years begging us not for a hydrogen not for ai not for
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our trendy ev battery or buses or cars you know they they they're past that foolishness they came here for
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our oil and for our natural gas because they know we have a lot of it we produce it to the highest
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ethical standards in the world and i'm not tooting the canadian horn because i'm a canadian these guys
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came to us saying please give us something we said oh there's no business case i mean if people are going
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to be as simplistic as voting for socks sobbing selfies and if someone walks around trying to pump
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up their uh their cv by saying they were everything you know all things to all people i was upset mark
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carnegie said he had something to do with the but the balancing the budget in 1998 baloney poppycock
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that's not true he could have great deals with uh donald trump in a very short period of time baloney he
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never did had nothing to do with the 2008 global economic meltdown that was paul martin and my old friend
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who was my provincial counterpart before he became federal uh jim the late jim flaherty who had a lot
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to do with making sure the country didn't go off the rails all that aside i think canadians need to
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recognize and they have by the way the polls are finally showing they want pipelines built but it's
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too little too late and if you really want to stick at donald trump the only way you can do it is by saying
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you don't want our market you don't want our oil we've got dozens of others that'll take it china
1.00
00:23:47.140
japan south korea indonesia emerging nations would take canadian oil handily overalls why
00:23:53.860
they have the refinery capacity they have the upgraders they can take these things but we keep
00:23:59.220
sitting here selling to the united states our natural gas for two bucks in mmbtu they're selling
00:24:05.700
to lng because we said there's we're not going to build lngs we're going to block these things for
0.92
00:24:10.420
the past 10 years now we're getting a couple done too little too late americans have seven they're
00:24:14.740
selling for 17 in mbtu i mean what that really means is that we're giving americans the feedstock
00:24:21.700
they're making the profit on it because they were not encumbered by net zero what would i say to
00:24:26.980
canadians lose the fallacies of net zero because what it's doing at the end of the day is leaving
00:24:32.740
you with a lot less money and the only thing that's winding up is net zero in your bank accounts and for
00:24:37.860
generations to come dan mcteague thank you so much i know you're busy everybody wants to talk to you
00:24:43.860
uh and uh you know this is a really good sort of uh summation of where we're at i hope that we can
00:24:50.260
stay in touch with you as we work our way through this as canadians it is a little terrifying that
00:24:54.900
we've put ourselves in this position i couldn't agree with you more that we've we've put ourselves
00:24:58.980
and there is nothing wrong with trying to save the planet but we can't be alone in it we can't pay the
00:25:04.820
price for it as canadians and uh the the net results of net zero have only been negative to this
00:25:11.060
point it's tough to sell canadians on it i think uh overall right now uh dan where can people find
00:25:16.340
out more about what you're up to and keeping an eye on affordable energy for us yeah president
00:25:20.900
affordableenergy.ca gets you directing me i do read my emails whenever they come in from time to time
00:25:25.940
uh affordableenergy.ca look at the site by the way i'm putting up an article today about
00:25:30.820
my take on venezuela i know it's only the third day third working day into uh the new year but
00:25:36.820
uh we've really had to as it were hit the ground running on this issue because it does suggest that
00:25:41.300
canada has uh is in a crisis moment and it's not about going to europe and going to other places
00:25:45.940
around the world we need to address this very quickly and that's what you're going to find in
00:25:49.620
some of the writings that i have leading up to this time i'm really wrong on these things only because
00:25:54.100
thank god i've got the experience both in the private sector and the public sector to know what's
00:25:57.860
going on and having been to venezuela having been to guyana having worked in the united states i mean
00:26:02.340
all of these things provide me an insight that tells me canada can get it right but it needs the
00:26:07.780
leadership in this country to say let's get on with building pipelines and let's nix net zero i'm
00:26:13.700
with dan mcteague if you're in the media and you haven't interviewed him about this topic yet
00:26:18.900
i can't help you he's the guy thank you so much dan i appreciate it and we'll see you next time