Valuetainment - April 05, 2026


“15% Chance Republicans WIN!” - California Dems Panics A GOP Candidate Win


Episode Stats


Length

7 minutes

Words per minute

193.80963

Word count

1,388

Sentence count

131

Harmful content

Misogyny

8

sentences flagged

Toxicity

6

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, we talk about California's upcoming primary election and why we should all be worried about what s going on in the governor's race. We also talk about why California should be concerned about the possibility of a third party candidate making a run at the governor s office.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
00:00:00.000 There is something, I don't know if we have a story here or not.
00:00:02.080 There's conversations about the fact that a couple of Republicans
00:00:04.400 could potentially create some momentum and make it a little bit tough for California. 0.72
00:00:09.800 Tom, you were sharing a number earlier today, the 15% number.
00:00:12.380 You know which one I'm talking about.
00:00:13.620 Yes, we do.
00:00:13.840 Maybe you want to get into it for Californians to have a little bit of hope.
00:00:19.140 Go ahead, Tom.
00:00:20.100 Well, statistically speaking, there's only about a 15% chance of it right now.
00:00:25.520 But what happens in California is—
00:00:28.420 This is a town where it says we know there's a risk ahead, a 15 percent chance of calamity.
00:00:31.740 It's not a 15 percent chance of stubbing your toe.
00:00:33.500 It's a 15 percent chance of losing the governorship, losing the down ballot races.
00:00:38.100 Tom, I'm excited for this. I see a lot of highlighted notes over there, Tom.
00:00:40.600 Let's do it. What what it talks about.
00:00:43.380 I put a post out about two weeks ago about the governor's race in Boca Raton, Florida, and this is exactly what happened.
00:00:51.140 Two Republicans stayed in head to head with each other.
00:00:54.160 And because it was, you know, not a primary, there's not a primary to say there'll be one Republican.
00:01:00.500 You had three people there, a Democrat and two Republicans.
00:01:03.620 And the Democrat got elected with by just a couple of votes with thirty nine percent of the vote.
00:01:11.320 So congratulations. Boca Tone, Florida now has a mayor that they didn't that sixty one percent of the people did not want because he got thirty nine percent because the other two split the vote.
00:01:20.500 this is coming to California. And what they're worried about, they're worried about
00:01:24.440 too many Democrats on the ballot path. That's what they're worried about. And if there's only
00:01:28.880 two Republicans and too many on the ballot, could one of them be like a 39% winner? And that's why
00:01:37.360 they're saying, well, there's only about a 15% chance of losing the governorship. But the fact
00:01:41.920 that they're even talking about is telling you what's up. And they're also very, very worried
00:01:46.920 about what has been regardless of the economy there has been progressive conservative vote
00:01:54.540 progress especially in the central state and down um in inland orange county making a comeback
00:02:01.360 and outside san diego so could there be enough that one of those republicans gets 33 percent of
00:02:09.400 the vote and there's such a splintering that he gets elected so it's it's a long shot but that's
00:02:15.020 what they're talking about pat and the fact they're talking about you know it means they're
00:02:18.240 thinking about it they're thinking about it they don't like it meanwhile their leading democrat
00:02:23.340 candidate which is you know um uh swalwell china's favorite dating partner um is is sitting 0.93
00:02:31.400 okay when i sell my business i want the best tax and investment advice i want to help my kids and
00:02:37.600 i want to give back to the community oh then it's the vacation of a lifetime i wonder if my head of
00:02:44.920 office has a forever center. An IG private wealth advisor creates the clarity you need with plans
00:02:51.160 that harmonize your business, your family, and your dreams. Get financial advice that puts you
00:02:56.740 at the center. Find your advisor at igprivatewealth.com. Honestly, that is the worst
00:03:03.580 leading candidate because you have number one is him at 13, 14 percent. And then you have,
00:03:10.600 what's her name? Katie Porter. I was just about to get very upset with Tom,
00:03:13.640 I'm discounting my girl, Katie Pitati.
00:03:15.300 Yeah, Katie Porter, 10 or 13, and then Tom Steyer.
00:03:19.780 And then you have Hilton on the Republican side.
00:03:21.560 That's number one, 16%, 17%.
00:03:23.020 And on Chad Bianco is second.
00:03:27.460 I wouldn't mind having Chad Bianco and Hilton here together.
00:03:30.240 I have a conversation about what's going on with California,
00:03:31.940 maybe a friendly conversation between the two of them.
00:03:34.960 But Swalwell right now, is this Calci, Rob?
00:03:36.760 Calci is showing 57.6%.
00:03:39.720 Hilton's at 9%.
00:03:41.760 Tom Steyer's at 14%.
00:03:43.220 on Kalshi, and this is $5 million of volume we're talking about.
00:03:48.620 It's not like a small number.
00:03:49.560 Adam.
00:03:50.140 I can't believe that Eric Swalba is in the lead here right now. 0.99
00:03:52.500 By the way, Tom Steyer, for such a successful person, what a loser. 0.95
00:03:58.740 This guy just donates money to running for something and wins nothing. 0.65
00:04:04.320 Like, remember when Michael Bloomberg just basically spent $100 million
00:04:06.960 to basically throw himself in the race?
00:04:09.240 He's going to be the savior.
00:04:10.800 And then just basically made a donation.
00:04:12.640 This guy's just donating money left and right.
00:04:14.220 Public speaking is not everyone's ability.
00:04:15.560 Public speaking is not.
00:04:16.600 You think public speaking is like just because you're a billionaire,
00:04:20.000 you're great on stage?
00:04:21.020 No, you've got to be able to sell, persuade, fight.
00:04:23.480 No.
00:04:23.800 You know, market.
00:04:25.020 No, he doesn't have that.
00:04:25.820 If he had, if Katie Porter had his money, 0.97
00:04:29.040 Katie Patati could be going someplace. 1.00
00:04:30.840 She's special.
00:04:31.980 She's got that.
00:04:32.720 I know you have a.
00:04:33.600 I do.
00:04:33.980 I don't want to bring.
00:04:34.780 You're married.
00:04:35.520 You're happily married, Jen.
00:04:37.100 But you do have a thing for Katie.
00:04:38.300 I don't know what.
00:04:38.780 I do.
00:04:39.540 America's gift.
00:04:40.280 I don't want to put a secret out there, Pat.
00:04:41.620 But don't do that.
00:04:42.160 Don't do that.
00:04:42.680 Like, don't say stuff like that about her because it offends me.
00:04:44.760 If you put some stuff about Katie Porter online, people have to appreciate her talent.
00:04:48.220 Rob, can you pull up one of the clips?
00:04:49.940 I mean, you can't do stuff like this.
00:04:51.760 I'm sorry for letting the camera.
00:04:52.140 I don't like when you do that.
00:04:53.180 You know, you're—
00:04:53.980 I want to be in the inner circle.
00:04:55.020 You lose the respect when you talk about people.
00:04:59.460 I'm sorry, man.
00:05:00.900 Rob, which one?
00:05:02.060 Do you want to do this one?
00:05:03.140 You tell me this is not a sweetheart.
00:05:05.360 Go ahead.
00:05:05.780 This is what—
00:05:06.320 Go ahead.
00:05:06.560 We did recently this fall in September, and what it showed is if we don't—
00:05:11.380 If a Democrat in California wins, I want her. 1.00
00:05:15.180 That we're going to lose more than half a million Californians dying prematurely to air pollution and other problems.
00:05:21.700 And the state could lose. 1.00
00:05:24.520 Get out of my fucking shot. 1.00
00:05:29.040 It's not that it's electric vehicles. 1.00
00:05:31.480 It's that.
00:05:32.560 Look at her.
00:05:35.100 Okay.
00:05:36.000 It does.
00:05:36.420 Okay.
00:05:36.980 You also were in my shop before that.
00:05:39.640 No, she wasn't.
00:05:40.340 Stay out.
00:05:41.000 No, she was.
00:05:42.340 But you know what, though?
00:05:43.300 I'm going to start again.
00:05:44.060 You mean to tell me you don't think that's governor quality?
00:05:46.400 Oh.
00:05:46.640 You mean to tell me that's not TV stuff?
00:05:48.580 Oh, yeah.
00:05:48.940 Listen.
00:05:49.380 She's made for TV. 1.00
00:05:50.340 By the way, if she goes on The View, and I keep saying this,
00:05:53.680 if she goes on The View and she does what she does, superstar.
00:05:57.560 Superstar.
00:05:57.940 Oh, my God.
00:05:58.260 Yeah.
00:05:58.740 But anyways, going back to California.
00:06:00.060 She could throw America into the panic, you know?
00:06:02.120 Remember when I said L.A. used to be cool?
00:06:04.020 That's the new face of California.
00:06:06.600 Unbelievable.
00:06:06.960 If I have to choose between Swalwell and her, I'm actually being very serious.
00:06:11.500 Oh, we want Petey.
00:06:13.020 I want her.
00:06:14.000 I want her to be to California to see what she will do to California. 0.97
00:06:17.500 But the 15% chance that the California has to have a Republican,
00:06:21.500 to all the people that want California change,
00:06:23.560 you better get behind Bianco or Hilton.
00:06:25.700 Pick and choose.
00:06:26.780 Play ball.
00:06:27.740 Give some money.
00:06:28.520 Support.
00:06:29.120 Go do your part.
00:06:29.900 Because if you don't, she's your governor. 0.97
00:06:32.620 Oh, man.
00:06:33.600 Oh, man.
00:06:33.800 She's been desperate and sinking in the polls.
00:06:36.000 She's been sinking.
00:06:36.960 right now and i'm just waiting for the comeback story something that maybe we'll just throw
00:06:41.040 america into panic katie porter and playboy reach terms i'm waiting for that headline
00:06:47.840 tom and the dirty mind guys if you're watching this you're part of the 51 that watches and
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