Valuetainment - April 30, 2026


＂46% MORE Bankruptcies＂ - Is The Strait Of Hormuz Blockade DESTROYING Farmers？


Episode Stats


Length

13 minutes

Words per minute

213.88559

Word count

2,940

Sentence count

257

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged

Toxicity

6

sentences flagged

Hate speech

9

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

On this episode of the Stock Market Movers podcast, Ryan Henderson and Brett Schafer discuss the impact of the Iranian sanctions on the global economy and the impact on farmers. They discuss how the sanctions are hurting farmers and how they will impact the economy in the long-term.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:27.920 Do you know how bad farmers are doing right now?
00:00:32.840 You know farmers right now, I think bankruptcy for farmers last year in 2025 was up 46% bankruptcies.
00:00:39.700 You know the Strait of Hormuz, how much they're relying on the fertilizer that's coming from the Strait of Hormuz,
00:00:45.300 how big of a liability this is for them.
00:00:47.640 And when you go through all the different kinds, what they need it for, price going from $300 to $650 in a month.
00:00:53.800 So they're dealing with regulation.
00:00:55.540 They're dealing with prices going up for, you know, fertilizer.
00:00:59.080 They're dealing with all this stuff.
00:01:00.480 So I think that economy is like, oh, my God, farmers are charging up.
00:01:04.080 Farmers are not making any money.
00:01:05.180 If you look at the average farmer's margins, they make 3% to 12% if they're lucky,
00:01:08.700 and they make 0% to 5% on average, and most of the time they're losing money.
00:01:12.840 So we've got to make sure they're good.
00:01:14.620 We've got to make sure the younger guys are buying houses, having kids.
00:01:17.760 You know, and you're saying first-time buyers dropping from 40% to 26%,
00:01:21.400 so they can't afford to buy a house. 0.74
00:01:22.880 I think that affordability issue was there before Iran, but this just kind of ratcheted things up a lot. 0.82
00:01:29.980 We can't do it the European way by writing everybody checks because that will just cause more inflation.
00:01:34.140 But we are doing that with farmers.
00:01:35.500 We're getting 44 billion .3 this year.
00:01:37.580 Sometimes it's necessary.
00:01:39.140 With farmers it may be, but I want to hear his thoughts on farmers.
00:01:41.600 Well, that's where, you know, it would be lovely if they could score a victory.
00:01:46.000 If Venezuela would actually have a change of regime, if Cuba would have a change of regime,
00:01:50.300 If Iran would have a change of regime, that would be, hey, we actually notched one big victory.
00:01:54.880 Otherwise, you know, yes, you and I, we say, oh, in the long run, this is a good thing for the U.S. strategically.
00:01:59.980 But at some point, you want to win a political goal.
00:02:02.720 That's massive. 0.92
00:02:03.460 If they do flip Iran. 0.94
00:02:05.880 If. 0.88
00:02:06.500 That's a big if.
00:02:07.420 It's a 5-10%, by the way.
00:02:09.060 I'm putting it very low.
00:02:10.120 But if they're able to flip that, this may be a complete.
00:02:13.700 I think it's a higher percentage of success.
00:02:15.820 And if it does happen, it'll certainly be worth it.
00:02:18.220 So, again, it's short-term pain.
00:02:19.720 I think they realize this is going to cause short-term pain.
00:02:22.040 And this food issue is much bigger than people who are giving it credit for.
00:02:24.940 Not only will you have people who are pissed off about the economy for the last couple of years,
00:02:28.480 now you jack up the price of gasoline.
00:02:30.780 It's going to get to $5, maybe $5.50, $6 a gallon.
00:02:34.080 You're going to see food prices rise not next month, but three, four, five months from now.
00:02:39.060 So there will be a delayed effect right before the midterms.
00:02:41.600 And it's baked in the cake at this point.
00:02:43.620 There's no going back.
00:02:44.220 If they get the Hormuz problem solved tomorrow, it's too late.
00:02:47.740 There's still going to be some short-term pain.
00:02:49.060 So by the time you get to November, you're going to have gasoline prices that are still relatively high, even if they start to come back down.
00:02:55.100 You have food prices that are going to be up.
00:02:56.720 There's going to be a lot of unrest around the rest of the world.
00:02:58.720 So I think Trump administration being pragmatic.
00:03:00.620 This is much worse than the rest of the world, and that's going to spill over to us.
00:03:02.940 Yeah.
00:03:03.620 You said this is much worse for the rest of the world?
00:03:05.380 Yeah, much worse.
00:03:06.400 Much worse.
00:03:07.040 The food and energy issue.
00:03:08.080 They rely on us, so we have to lead the way.
00:03:10.100 Well, the fertilizer issue is underappreciated.
00:03:13.640 I mean, if it continues to go this way, you could see countries fall.
00:03:17.040 You could see regimes collapse.
00:03:19.060 That's that's the real downside scenario. Oh, my God. When you look at the data of how bad it's impacting farmers, it's you know, you don't just 10 years this year.
00:03:27.140 We're going to get we're committing to forty four point three billion dollars to farmers because less than nine percent of farmers are under the under the age of 35,
00:03:35.160 which means young guys are now growing up saying I want to be a farmer. Everybody's above 35, forty four point three billion dollars.
00:03:41.260 We have to give them this year. Farmers 10 years ago, that was only eleven, twelve billion dollars in 10 years.
00:03:46.420 It's forexed.
00:03:47.180 Well, I will challenge the have to.
00:03:49.480 So Franklin Roosevelt started giving money to farmers.
00:03:52.240 We've been doing it ever since.
00:03:53.780 The fraction of the U.S. who works on farms is way under 2% right now, 0.99
00:03:57.520 most of which are illegal immigrants.
00:04:00.540 So, you know, this is a tiny slice of the U.S. economy.
00:04:03.360 They lost illegal immigrants.
00:04:03.860 They lost some of those. 1.00
00:04:04.660 Well, that's another problem for farms is you can't get Americans to do it.
00:04:09.300 So there's stuff rotting on the vine right now because you can't get workers.
00:04:12.600 You can't.
00:04:13.300 That's the one thing you can't.
00:04:14.680 God loves farmers.
00:04:16.260 For the U.S., it's a small fraction of our economy that, God forbid, could be allowed to be the free market.
00:04:20.620 If you're in the Philippines, if you're in Thailand, if you're in Malaysia, you know, they— 0.64
00:04:24.960 South America. 0.51
00:04:25.680 South America.
00:04:26.120 That's where it's really going to hit.
00:04:26.940 This is really hard on the overall economy as well as just—
00:04:29.800 Yeah, so I always wonder about that.
00:04:31.280 So play that out.
00:04:32.240 What does that look like if we don't do farming subsidies?
00:04:34.060 Because I always wondered if that was necessary or if they did it so that farmers could sell it at lower prices
00:04:39.380 so they didn't have to kind of raise the prices with the market fluctuations.
00:04:42.760 What would that look like if we stopped with farming subsidies?
00:04:45.720 We would get cheaper food.
00:04:49.260 More productive.
00:04:50.360 More productive and cheaper food.
00:04:51.820 Which you end up subsidizing are all the unproductive farms.
00:04:55.560 Right.
00:04:55.900 Because they can't make enough food to make it profitable to sell at the market.
00:05:01.220 Are they worried they would go out of business, though, if they had to lower the price that much?
00:05:04.380 They will.
00:05:04.920 You eliminate some of the unproductive producers, and the overall system, they get absorbed by the larger producers.
00:05:10.400 Yeah, the mom-and-pop car company went away in the 1920s.
00:05:13.660 Sorry, they were cute.
00:05:14.720 But, you know, big companies are more efficient.
00:05:17.020 So why doesn't Trump understand that, though?
00:05:18.480 Because Trump does the law of farming subsidies, and he seems like a free market guy.
00:05:21.740 Trump is not a free market guy, and everybody has understood this since about 1955, and farmers vote.
00:05:28.200 And the Senate is very, very biased towards rural areas.
00:05:32.780 Let's say, why do we have corn ethanol?
00:05:33.440 Are you saying there's a big farm out there?
00:05:35.840 Big pharma, there's a big farm.
00:05:37.880 Trump just went back in, and we do more corn ethanol now, which is, this is, anybody wants industrial policy,
00:05:43.880 My answer is corn, ethanol, complete waste, doesn't save the climate, but boy, oh boy, they vote in Iowa.
00:05:51.060 Interesting.
00:05:51.600 Yeah, no, I always wonder about that, if it was actually necessary or not.
00:05:55.020 And that's interesting.
00:05:56.100 I wonder how that would play out if we let the free market do its thing there.
00:05:59.160 I always wondered if it was different than the rest of the industries.
00:06:03.200 No, there's almost no anti-free market argument you could make about food.
00:06:08.340 I mean, all the fancy arguments my fellow economists like to make.
00:06:10.820 Food, it's you plant stuff in the ground, you grow it, you sell it.
00:06:14.980 Sometimes prices are high, sometimes prices are low.
00:06:17.140 There's no failure free market there.
00:06:19.760 Because you hear the things about them like destroying a certain amount of crops
00:06:22.380 or whatnot to keep the prices elevated, right?
00:06:24.300 Yep, that's what the government does. 0.93
00:06:25.880 So we pay artificially high prices.
00:06:27.900 Then the government buys the artificially high-priced stuff
00:06:30.800 and gives it away for free via food stamps,
00:06:32.780 another way of supporting the farmers.
00:06:36.080 But it is a form of it getting nationalized.
00:06:38.400 We used to have 14,000 banks, and we had a lot of small loans being given away.
00:06:42.120 And then all of a sudden, the banks started picking them up.
00:06:43.860 We saw what happened during COVID.
00:06:45.840 We saw what happened during the recent crisis when JPMorgan Chase started buying up a bunch of smaller banks,
00:06:50.720 the signature bank, whatever it was, one by one by one.
00:06:53.320 But the model was, hey, we need more loans.
00:06:55.280 And even during quantitative easing, we're going to say, we're going to give $700, $800 billion,
00:06:59.340 and it's going to be loans going to the small business owner.
00:07:01.520 It never went to the small business owner.
00:07:02.820 It got stuck up there.
00:07:03.620 So the same thing happened with defense.
00:07:06.320 We used to have 55 defense companies that we would buy from,
00:07:10.540 and they would compete.
00:07:11.620 Now it's down to five because they're all picking each other up.
00:07:14.680 So nationalizing that, nationalizing banking, nationalizing farming
00:07:18.900 makes me a little bit uncomfortable, you know, on that side.
00:07:23.320 But it is happening.
00:07:24.840 You know, these guys, like even on the insurance side,
00:07:26.700 people are picking up the smaller guys,
00:07:28.540 and it's getting more and more power going to 5, 7, 10, 12 players.
00:07:32.820 Well, large can be very competitive, so don't confuse.
00:07:35.760 Large can be efficient and very competitive.
00:07:38.060 So four or five is fine if they're competitive.
00:07:40.880 The banks are very much protected from competition by the Fed.
00:07:44.420 You know they're on the same team.
00:07:45.720 They eventually end up being on the same team, and they don't really –
00:07:48.560 it's the wink-wink business model.
00:07:50.740 I'm not with that.
00:07:52.740 And by the way, there's a lot of other manipulation that happens as well.
00:07:55.300 We saw this in Florida since 2005 where a blithe was, you know,
00:08:01.020 all of a sudden came in to different farms and 90% of our groves in Florida
00:08:06.560 were destroyed, orange groves, since 2005.
00:08:09.520 And some are speculating the disconfirmation.
00:08:12.240 Farmers have a lot of different risks that they deal with.
00:08:14.300 It's almost like forcing them to say sell, sell, sell to the bigger guy, sell.
00:08:18.700 And they have so many deceptive, dark ways of forcing the smaller guy
00:08:22.760 to sell to the bigger guy.
00:08:25.060 And, you know, long-term, long-term, if the small business owner,
00:08:29.900 However, if the barrier to entry is tough for the small business owner to get in and it's all going to flow from the top, I don't look at capitalism, free market capitalism, as that being a good thing for us.
00:08:40.560 But we'll see.
00:08:41.540 We'll see what's going to happen.
00:08:42.360 Let me get to the next story here.
00:08:43.620 You look like you want to say something.
00:08:44.900 Well, if we're going to go to a capitalism versus socialism debate, it's going to take a while.
00:08:50.120 Let's go on to the next story.
00:08:52.020 There's not going to be much debate here.
00:08:53.940 Capitalism, crony capitalism, or socialism, I'll take freedom.
00:08:57.360 Capitalism is the freedom one.
00:08:58.860 But let's be clear about capitalism.
00:09:00.460 Capitalism is at its core competition.
00:09:02.940 Competition.
00:09:03.860 That's the key here.
00:09:05.580 Competition by the right to enter.
00:09:07.320 We don't need a big deal.
00:09:08.080 We don't get to decide what.
00:09:09.120 The Federal Trade Commission approving any deal.
00:09:11.960 That's not competition. 1.00
00:09:13.440 Milton Friedman said, let her rip. 1.00
00:09:15.520 Let him go compete.
00:09:16.440 I'm part of the Milton Friedman.
00:09:18.180 Competition solves so many problems. 0.99
00:09:20.040 But let me tell you, which is bullshit. 1.00
00:09:23.220 And this is the bullshit I'll call. 0.99
00:09:24.880 Is if you want the free market and let the guys compete great, 1.00
00:09:28.680 Get rid of the lobbyists.
00:09:30.240 Get rid of the crony stuff.
00:09:31.540 Get rid of the other stuff.
00:09:32.560 Or else, hey, if I can afford to spend billions of dollars on lobbying and you can't and you're a small guy coming up, that is a problem we'll be facing if the small guy cannot compete.
00:09:44.040 The heavier guy gets to control the market.
00:09:46.040 Well, that kind of monopolistic behavior is supposed to be something that the government takes care of.
00:09:49.560 That's where you take the Teddy Roosevelt view and say, look, if you're going to act like a monopoly, we're going to break it.
00:09:53.580 No, but the monopolies are granted by the government.
00:09:55.340 The reason the big guy can go and get the lobbyist is because the lobbyist can get with the regulator.
00:10:01.240 The regulator can pass rules.
00:10:03.300 You need limited government.
00:10:04.960 And the lobbyist can hire the regulator after the regulator has given it a favor.
00:10:07.880 Exactly.
00:10:08.820 Because the government is so powerful and putting its nose in so many places.
00:10:12.380 What phone do you use?
00:10:13.160 That's what's going on with tariffs right now.
00:10:15.120 I'm going to go to the tariff story.
00:10:16.780 The sad part about tariffs is everybody's in there saying, oh, give me an exemption.
00:10:20.500 It's just catnip for Coney Capital.
00:10:22.240 John, what phone do you use?
00:10:23.600 I have an iPhone.
00:10:24.380 What do you use?
00:10:25.040 I use Samsung.
00:10:26.360 Samsung, Rob.
00:10:27.820 iPhone.
00:10:28.520 What are you?
00:10:29.080 iPhone.
00:10:30.120 I'm an iPhone, so this is what?
00:10:31.960 Five out of – four out of five?
00:10:33.820 Is it four out of five?
00:10:34.680 Four out of five is Apple.
00:10:36.160 Okay, if I were to ask the guys over there,
00:10:39.140 Apple's a – what percentage of U.S. uses iPhones?
00:10:42.740 It's 57%, 55%.
00:10:45.100 It's a better product.
00:10:45.600 It is a better product.
00:10:46.720 I disagree.
00:10:47.740 But, by the way, there's also – 0.83
00:10:50.180 There are two darn good products which compete like crazy,
00:10:53.720 even though there's only two. 0.63
00:10:54.520 What are monopoly laws in America?
00:10:56.940 50%.
00:10:57.340 Well, wait a minute.
00:10:58.060 They're at 55%.
00:10:59.140 So I don't even know if we're implementing the monopoly laws that we have in America.
00:11:02.780 We're not.
00:11:03.280 No.
00:11:03.900 So you said monopolies are granted.
00:11:06.240 The monopoly law is not about size.
00:11:09.180 So it's just size of the market.
00:11:10.620 It's about behavior.
00:11:11.080 It's supposed to be about – it used to be about consumer welfare.
00:11:14.560 Can we prove that you're hurting consumers by raising prices?
00:11:17.700 That was the standard.
00:11:18.260 Or restricting other competition.
00:11:20.900 Anticompetitive.
00:11:21.340 What used to be a big part of the mandate was, are you engaging in anti-competitive practices,
00:11:25.320 which, everything John just said, could be categorized as anti-competitive.
00:11:28.940 It's kind of subjective.
00:11:30.740 Monopolies are granted largely by the government looking the other way.
00:11:33.000 That's what I'm saying.
00:11:33.940 Yeah.
00:11:34.200 When he said the word granted, I agree.
00:11:36.300 So you're allowing this monopoly to be there and I'm going to look away.
00:11:38.960 The teachers' union has a monopoly, and that's because nobody can enter in a given market.
00:11:42.860 That's a government-granted monopoly.
00:11:45.280 Banks, you have to have a charter in order to become a bank.
00:11:47.860 Okay.
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