Valuetainment - April 02, 2026


“60 Million Jobs GONE？” - AI Layoffs Could SPARK Economic CHAOS In America

Hosted by
Patrick Bet-David
Mentioned
Mark Andreessen Richard Werner Oracle Tom Ellsworth Jack Dorsey Patrick Michelle Pfeiffer Taylor Sheridan Andrew Krapuschetz Kurt Russell S26 Ultra McKinsey Madison Menecht Salary Claude F-150 Susan Meta Luke
“Trump Is Checking The Pulse” - Trump Signals Iran War ENDGAME In National Address “There Would Be A REVOLUTION!” - Why Politicians Are POWERLESS To Fix The System

Episode Stats


Length

18 minutes

Words per minute

195.47

Word count

3,592

Sentence count

229

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Toxicity

5

sentences flagged

Hate speech

2

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, we talk about how AI is going to replace human labor, and why this is a good thing. We also talk about the dangers of labor displacement and the benefits of AI, and how it will change the world.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.200 Now streaming on Paramount+.
00:00:02.600 My center, my soul is gone.
00:00:06.320 From Academy Award nominee Taylor Sheridan.
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00:00:13.500 Starring Academy Award nominee Michelle Pfeiffer
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00:00:19.460 The worry is what you do next.
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00:00:25.160 The Madison.
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00:00:30.000 Right now, you saw what happened with AI, right?
00:00:33.820 And you got the reports that came out.
00:00:35.800 And, Rob, I don't know if you have the stories or not where, you know, Oracle is letting go of, I don't know, 20,000 to 30,000 people.
00:00:41.840 Meta letting go.
00:00:42.780 And everybody's like, well, you know, Jack Dorsey announced he's firing people, letting go of 4,000 people.
00:00:47.960 Stock goes up.
00:00:48.600 Meta stock goes up.
00:00:49.580 Oracle, you know, they react positively.
00:00:53.120 And so if all these guys, and by the way, Mark Andreessen, respect to him,
00:00:58.760 he came out and said something.
00:00:59.840 I don't know if you guys saw what Mark Andreessen said yesterday.
00:01:01.980 Did you see what he said about the whole AI thing sheet?
00:01:03.920 Okay, Rob, if you want to play this clip,
00:01:05.820 because this is going to lead to a question for you guys to see what you'll say.
00:01:08.440 Go ahead, Rob.
00:01:09.220 Yeah, so you have friends, I'm sure, who were great coders before AI
00:01:12.140 and are now using AI for coding.
00:01:14.800 What's the thing that they all report?
00:01:17.780 They're far more productive.
00:01:19.700 They couldn't live without it.
00:01:21.740 And?
00:01:22.140 and are they working fewer more or fewer hours than before fewer more more yeah so this entire
00:01:31.400 labor displacement thing is 100 incorrect it's completely wrong it's classic zero sum economics
00:01:37.580 it's the lump of labor fallacy it happens over and over and over again it's always been wrong
00:01:42.040 it's going to be wrong again believe it for mediocre people and i know that sounds very 0.97
00:01:46.140 judgmental and horrible but most social media managers mark a crap okay i'm getting in trouble 0.98
00:01:50.980 if it's not you and crap if you get a social media tool that is ai driven and can replace an 0.98
00:01:55.620 average social media manager for at&t surely you'd do it i don't say this to i don't say this to be 0.95
00:02:01.960 insulting but it's the classic marxist analysis right which is there's a certain amount of work
00:02:06.820 to be done and either the machines do it or the humans do it and so you know surely surely those
00:02:10.420 jobs go away the answer has to be and this is what technology has always done and this is what
00:02:14.140 ai is going to do and this is why i went through the long description that i did of the the
00:02:17.220 hyper democratization of AI. Every single one of those people who's a social media manager today
00:02:21.180 now has AI. They all have AI. They all have AI or they're about to have AI. And they're going to
00:02:26.180 have it at their fingertips. And if they want to, and then anything that they want to do in their
00:02:29.740 life, in their work, in their career, in their profession, in their job for the rest of time,
00:02:33.660 they're going to be able to use AI to do those things. And they're going to be able to use AI
00:02:37.120 to become a better version of themselves. They're going to be able to use AI to be able to learn
00:02:40.260 new skills. They're going to be able to use AI to become more productive at work. They're going to
00:02:43.720 use AI to be able to not do a lot of the grunt work they're doing today so that they can do
00:02:46.880 higher value work. And then now I'm just talking classical economics, which is just the other side
00:02:51.480 from Marxism. Classical economics says that the actual function, the actual economic function of
00:02:56.780 technology, and this includes AI, the actual function is to raise productivity and specifically
00:03:00.660 to raise marginal productivity of the individual worker. And again, this has happened many,
00:03:04.460 many times. You take an individual worker who used to write a pencil and paper and you give
00:03:07.620 them a typewriter, and then they used to write on a typewriter and then you give them a work processor.
00:03:11.080 I'll read the rest on what he says. He says, essentially, every large company is overstaffed.
00:03:15.320 It's at least overstaffed by 25%.
00:03:17.520 I think most large companies are overstaffed by 50%.
00:03:20.000 And I think a lot of them are overstaffed by 75%.
00:03:23.520 So what does this mean?
00:03:24.780 You know, we saw what Jack Dorsey did laying out 40% of them.
00:03:28.180 Rob, what was the average salary?
00:03:30.240 I know Meta was $379.
00:03:31.460 What does Oracle's average salary payout is?
00:03:34.360 What is the average salary at Oracle?
00:03:36.120 Oracle is $139 to $400.
00:03:38.840 Meta was $379.
00:03:40.340 So if these guys are letting go of these jobs,
00:03:42.500 and listen, we don't need them.
00:03:43.380 Profit's going to go up.
00:03:45.160 And, you know, a Bloomberg story says more than half of U.S. says AI will likely harm them.
00:03:50.620 This is a Bloomberg poll.
00:03:52.100 More than half of them are worried about this.
00:03:53.940 This is a real number.
00:03:55.280 70% of Americans think advancement of AI are likely to reduce job opportunities.
00:03:59.120 14% more than they said last year.
00:04:02.040 7% said they think advancement in AI are likely to increase job opportunities.
00:04:06.580 But that's only 7%, right?
00:04:08.480 Okay.
00:04:09.340 So if you're saying, you know, the models they have right now is the rich getting richer and the poor getting poor,
00:04:14.220 and they wouldn't want to do it the way you're suggesting, and AI is going to do what AI is going to do,
00:04:19.600 what are you going to do if people are unemployed?
00:04:21.600 What are you going to do if people don't have jobs?
00:04:22.940 What are you going to do if people are not growing, becoming successful?
00:04:25.000 Then what do you do?
00:04:25.980 Then what kind of chaos are these billionaires dealing with?
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00:05:26.060 Well, yes.
00:05:27.340 Now, do you realize that what we're talking about here
00:05:29.860 with, you know, replacing these big company jobs.
00:05:33.940 That's entirely unsurprising, I would say,
00:05:36.740 because we know there's, you know,
00:05:38.300 there's overemployment in these big companies.
00:05:40.980 But, you know, what is the percentage of companies
00:05:43.720 that are listed even on any stock exchange?
00:05:47.020 It's 0.01%.
00:05:49.480 For sure.
00:05:50.060 99.9% of companies are small and medium-sized companies
00:05:53.880 that are not listed and are likely never to be listed.
00:05:56.980 And also that's where the majority of employment is,
00:05:59.620 And that's where we have underemployment because the small firms are always liquidity rationed.
00:06:05.460 They usually can't get enough money because they don't have access to capital markets.
00:06:09.940 It's mainly banks that lend to them and the number of banks going down.
00:06:13.520 So we have increasingly a credit crunch affecting small firms.
00:06:17.520 And that's much more important.
00:06:19.320 So you can easily counterbalance.
00:06:22.280 You know, the big companies always go through these, you know, phases of, okay, we're going to cut.
00:06:26.520 And McKinsey comes in and they cut 10%.
00:06:29.120 You know, that's what they always do.
00:06:32.080 But that's marginal compared to if you increase employment in small firms and all you need to do there is create more banks, not reduce the number of small banks, but create more small banks.
00:06:42.420 I'm totally with you.
00:06:43.300 I don't think I'm what I'm saying is not against the solution.
00:06:46.920 I'm not against.
00:06:47.820 And I know the numbers, because when I go back right now, 46 percent, 45 percent of Americans work for a small business.
00:06:54.920 OK, it's well, but you could even say it's more than that, depending on the definition.
00:06:58.860 Sure. Let's just say the definition this is used by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is 45% small business today.
00:07:06.920 Of all employees work for a small business. Everybody here works for a small business.
00:07:10.540 50 years ago was 60%. 70 years ago was 65%.
00:07:14.860 Okay, so what is it doing? The bigger companies are employing more.
00:07:18.020 The smaller ones are being picked up or whatever. They're going out of business, right?
00:07:21.960 My argument isn't your solution is a bad solution.
00:07:24.260 My argument is why would the people in power and the billionaires not want that?
00:07:28.860 Why would they not want others to create small businesses?
00:07:32.560 The answer is what Luke earlier said.
00:07:34.120 It's about power and control.
00:07:36.240 Barrier to entry, to have more control, to not allow somebody else to come in to help.
00:07:39.560 To maximize profits.
00:07:40.940 Essentially, these billionaires, they love the central planning because they think they can be the central planners.
00:07:48.280 It's about power.
00:07:49.160 They want to control things, which is actually betrayal of the American dream of individual freedom.
00:07:54.680 Yeah, I mean, and this AI thing, to your point, if you're shrinking the banks while you're doing this, because I agree with you, Patrick, which is there's an order of operations.
00:08:07.400 I agree with what Andreessen's saying, and I found that a lot of the sort of tech billionaire class like Andreessen, they are brilliant, and they also, I think they're a bit disconnected from the reality of how this has gone.
00:08:23.160 I live in Cleveland. I live in the U.S. Rust Belt. I saw, for me, my working mental model of what AI is going to do to these white collar jobs is what China did to these blue collar jobs, which is to say a lot of what Andreessen said is exactly what the politicians and the billionaire class were saying about NAFTA and about China going into the WTO.
00:08:49.440 And from the time China entered the WTO in December of 01, by 08, 09, the number of manufacturing jobs in the United States had dropped by almost 35%.
00:09:00.780 And they never came back, right?
00:09:04.480 So there's an element of –
00:09:05.440 For sure they're not going to come back.
00:09:06.680 Never coming back.
00:09:07.460 You're not going to bring –
00:09:08.140 You're never going to bring that back.
00:09:09.460 And so there's this assumption of essentially teaching old dogs new tricks, right?
00:09:14.940 And number one, it's hard to teach old dogs new tricks.
00:09:17.820 You get to 50, 55 years old, it's hard to re-skill.
00:09:23.120 Unless if your name is Tom Ellsworth, because Tom Ellsworth is an exception.
00:09:26.780 Yeah, exception to the rule, of course.
00:09:28.660 There are always exceptions.
00:09:31.920 And he would be even offended. 0.62
00:09:33.240 I'd call him an old dog.
00:09:34.180 I'm just joking.
00:09:35.840 Please.
00:09:37.360 The challenge is this order of operations, the point you made, Patrick,
00:09:41.060 which is these people took on mortgage loans.
00:09:45.440 They took on car loans.
00:09:46.480 Student loans are less of an issue because they're owed to the government.
00:09:49.000 They can be forgiven.
00:09:49.800 In extremists, they probably wouldn't be, but that's a separate discussion.
00:09:52.900 But basically, our entire credit-based system is not prepared for a deflationary impulse,
00:10:01.180 a productivity driver, the magnitude of AI.
00:10:04.940 In 38 of 50 U.S. states, the New York Times reported last year,
00:10:08.380 the single biggest employer in the United States is health care.
00:10:13.840 35 years ago, it was manufacturing.
00:10:16.000 It's health care now.
00:10:16.780 And these aren't doctors and nurses.
00:10:18.180 These are health care.
00:10:18.840 What's your point?
00:10:19.480 Health care administrators are one of the biggest jobs.
00:10:22.320 So AI is uniquely suited to disintermediate, to driving high unemployment among health care administrators.
00:10:28.720 These are good-paying jobs.
00:10:30.360 These are people that have never had to think about what the blue-collar guy has, which is, wow, my job might go to China.
00:10:35.460 Up until two, three years ago, a health care administrator.
00:10:37.600 What's the average salary on that?
00:10:38.400 Health care administrator, Rob, what is that?
00:10:40.060 Give me a high low of a health care administrator.
00:10:43.200 Salary.
00:10:43.600 I bet you it's 80 to 120, let's say.
00:10:47.580 It's not a bad number.
00:10:48.800 You're pretty spot on.
00:10:49.660 94 to 120.
00:10:50.860 By the way, and the top earners make 150 to 200.
00:10:54.560 So you couldn't make it up to a, okay, so you're saying AI is going to replace these guys.
00:10:59.360 These types of jobs, it's very easy to do.
00:11:01.720 And, again, if you have the, there's no social safety net big enough.
00:11:06.620 They're going to fall into default on their mortgage loans possibly.
00:11:11.820 And you can already see that delinquencies and defaults on consumer loans are at the highest levels already since 2011, 2012, shortly after the great financial crisis.
00:11:22.800 So if you have some sort of institutionalized system like what Richard's talking about of small banks that are looking to take risks to support entrepreneurs as they go from this to something new, empowered by what Andreessen highlights is absolutely the productivity-enhancing power of AI, then this can work.
00:11:44.280 It's going to be tenuous, but it could conceivably work.
00:11:46.860 But as it's structured now, what's going to happen is you're going to see increasing unemployment amongst high-earning classes that took on loans, never thinking that their job would be threatened in a way a blue-collar guy's job was threatened by China.
00:12:00.520 And they're going to default on their house and on their car, and then the banks are going to have to constrict credit because they were taking credit losses due to the regulatory ratios that Richard talked about.
00:12:08.840 And we're going to have another something that looks like GFC.
00:12:11.220 And you're starting, in my opinion, to see cracks already when you see these private credit headlines.
00:12:15.620 Global financial crisis.
00:12:16.620 Global financial crisis.
00:12:17.520 Oh, wait.
00:12:18.640 So what percentage of jobs are those like, you know, the entry clerks, the customer service, the call center?
00:12:25.980 What percentage of American jobs are we talking about that AI could take?
00:12:30.280 Oh, just this health care administrator.
00:12:32.120 I'm glad you asked.
00:12:32.820 I just looked it up right now.
00:12:33.740 How many people have that job?
00:12:36.280 560,000 health care administrators in America.
00:12:39.240 That's one.
00:12:39.840 That's one.
00:12:40.420 For all jobs.
00:12:41.720 So what do you think?
00:12:42.420 What percentage?
00:12:42.840 Well, Andre Carpathy, who's an AI expert, did a study using the 342 Bureau of Labor Statistics job classifications, and it was a heat map.
00:12:54.320 You can probably find it online, a heat map of risk to AI.
00:12:59.180 Okay.
00:12:59.580 And he rated them from low risk to very high risk.
00:13:03.720 And the low risk were exactly where you would think.
00:13:05.740 It's construction workers, laborers. 0.76
00:13:07.880 It's such things that in the real meat space, there it is.
00:13:10.740 There's the heat map.
00:13:12.100 Okay.
00:13:12.840 you can see the very high risk, very high risk. There are 25 million jobs at very high risk of
00:13:21.100 disintermediation and another, I believe, 34 million jobs at just high risk. So you're talking
00:13:27.800 about 60 million jobs. What's the labor force? 120 million, 150 million in the United States,
00:13:33.900 something like that. You're talking about 30 to 40 jobs, 30 to 40% of the jobs at risk. And look
00:13:39.140 at all these jobs here right that you can scroll over to the right on this thing it's what i do for
00:13:43.260 a living right i'm in financial markets and think about this and that i love that you brought that
00:13:47.720 up because that kind of economic desperation once those people if they're not trying to recreate or
00:13:52.380 and i takes over ai takes over you're talking about a serious civil unrest where they they
00:13:58.960 haven't gotten ready there's no other jobs that's like civil war type hey we're hungry we're i can't
00:14:04.740 feed my oh if this oh my god oh by the way here's the thing though let me let me tell you you know
00:14:08.440 the whole rich gets rich or poor get poor yeah a part of it is on the poor a part of it is on the
00:14:14.480 rich let me explain my opinion okay and i get i get hateful because i used to be the poor guy
00:14:19.080 yeah okay my dad was a cashier at a 99 cent store doesn't get worse my mother ran out of money went
00:14:23.660 back to iran and i would go and he'd be making sandwiches and we're broke he's making fifteen
00:14:28.360 hundred dollars a month my dad okay working at a cashier out of 99 i joined the military why i
00:14:34.240 have no money. My credit score, 484, 495, 499. Now ask me the way I lived. Anything I made went
00:14:41.560 straight to the nightclubs. Anything I did, it was all about sports. Partying, traveling, hanging
00:14:46.840 out, no investments, could care less about mutual funds. I'm not getting paid. All of a sudden,
00:14:51.060 it's like, boom, I read a book called The Millionaire Next Door. The Millionaire Next
00:14:54.440 Door drives a Ford F-150. You know what he talks about in that book that the millionaires,
00:14:58.880 the number one car millionaires drive in this book, it says F-150. It's not the Ferrari. It's
00:15:03.740 It's not the Lambo, and it's not any of that stuff.
00:15:06.180 This guy uses dollar-cost averaging.
00:15:07.960 Puts the money away long-term.
00:15:09.020 It grows from at 11%, 12%.
00:15:10.500 Stay in the market, S&P, because that's the way for you to hedge your money against all these other guys.
00:15:15.180 If you really want to compete against these other guys, they're in the market.
00:15:17.540 And half the time, they can't beat the S&P anyways.
00:15:19.720 So if the last 40 years S&P's done 11.5%, guess what?
00:15:23.360 If you don't know a lot about it, go buy a nice little mutual fund, American Funds Investment Company Act.
00:15:27.380 Go to Vanguard.
00:15:28.120 Go to somebody that's got an ETF to play it safe, right?
00:15:31.000 and then you know expenses you know find a way to save 20% if you can 10% live way below your
00:15:41.120 means this is on the individual learn a new skill set go learn Claude go learn coding go learn the
00:15:46.960 skill set today so if the poor is not doing that that's on them those who do to get out of it
00:15:52.420 different story now let's go to the rich a part of this being on the rich if you're building a
00:15:57.580 company Richard and this is this is what I thought about I was in a company that I went and had a
00:16:02.840 meeting with them at Duluth Georgia and I said one day I would like to be the CEO of this company
00:16:06.540 I want to know what I can do to own a real piece of this company because I'm going to give 20 years
00:16:10.920 to this company they laughed me out of the room I was 29 years old 30 years old like who the hell
00:16:15.200 are you I said oh really yeah this lady named uh Susan so I walked and I'm like very interesting
00:16:22.120 how they handle this okay they said you'll never leave you're not going to start a company you're
00:16:26.100 coming here to get a few million dollars because another guy does this every four years and you're
00:16:29.920 trying to scare us you have a very good life you're not going anywhere i'm like wow how many
00:16:33.980 other people came and they were faking it and then i said i'll never do that so i left i started
00:16:38.040 insurance company i gave everybody who were leaders equity and what happened when everybody got equity
00:16:42.460 we didn't lose people they stuck around their lives changed happy marriage they had kids players
00:16:48.860 that spend the most time with me they got on average three to five kids because to me it's
00:16:52.680 like, I want you to have a happy marriage, have a lot of kids, have your dreams become
00:16:56.460 a reality, you know, enjoy your life, wear nice clothes, eat good food, you're good to
00:17:01.220 go.
00:17:02.880 If you don't think that way, people are leaving you and your company collapses.
00:17:07.640 So I can't see the logic of not creating an economy where young people want to get married, 0.99
00:17:12.740 want to have kids, want to have their dreams become reality, want to live in a nice place.
00:17:17.320 If you don't have that kind of an environment where everyone's having a dual career, you
00:17:22.620 You know, husband's working, wife's working. 0.99
00:17:24.420 This is not a good climate for the economy.
00:17:26.220 And that's kind of where we're going today.
00:17:27.380 Richard Werner's on Menecht.
00:17:28.880 If you want to ask him any questions, we're going to put his QR code around here and the link as well.
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