Valuetainment - ＂90% Unemployment＂ – AI Expert Predicts an Economy Where Nobody Needs to Work

00:00:00.000 Have you heard Ilan saying, you know, here in the near future, you know, people are going to get paid.

00:00:04.720 You know, you don't have to worry about, you know, don't worry about retirement planning.

00:00:07.540 Don't worry about investing your money.

00:00:09.260 You're not going to really need it.

00:00:10.380 Everything's going to be.

00:00:11.360 What do you think he's talking about?

00:00:12.680 What world do you think he sees in five years?

00:00:15.640 So if you have free labor, physical and cognitive, the standard approach of go to work, make minimum wage in U.S. dollars doesn't make any sense.

00:00:25.200 AI would automate all of that.

00:00:26.940 Does that mean there is no wealth?

00:00:28.680 Does that mean there is no rare objects, waterfront properties, art, and some way of measuring that?

00:00:34.440 No, of course not.

00:00:35.700 Maybe it's compute.

00:00:36.680 Maybe it's Bitcoin.

00:00:38.180 But something there means you can obtain something you want.

00:00:41.880 Somebody can sell it.

00:00:42.740 You can buy it.

00:00:43.620 That will not go away.

00:00:45.160 Now, will minimum wage jobs go away? 1.00

00:00:47.820 Will all the boring and stupid jobs go away? 1.00

00:00:50.020 Yeah, because we can automate them. 1.00

00:00:51.960 Would podcasters be unemployed?

00:00:54.060 No, people like you.

00:00:55.080 They want to hear you talk, not a robot.

00:00:57.200 So you'll keep your job because the market says,

00:00:59.580 I want a human to do that job.

00:01:02.800 Yeah, so you think that part will still stick around.

00:01:05.520 But it seems like the way Elon is talking about it

00:01:08.260 is a form of a UBI being done by companies

00:01:11.700 that there's going to be so much money being made

00:01:14.220 that no one's going to need to work.

00:01:17.240 It's just you choose to work.

00:01:18.420 That's how he's presenting it.

00:01:19.540 That is the existing infrastructure we have right now.

00:01:22.280 We tax wealth, including from corporations, 0.71

00:01:24.980 and we give it to unemployed. 0.99

00:01:26.800 That's what we have set up.

00:01:27.920 So if everyone loses jobs, they get paychecks,

00:01:30.380 and we get it from mega profits of AI companies.

00:01:32.940 Yeah, but you're talking about levels of unemployment.

00:01:35.320 What you're talking about, we're not talking about 7% unemployment.

00:01:38.700 We're not talking about 10% of unemployment.

00:01:40.060 Even if it's 90, if you have hyper profits, if everything is in abundance

00:01:43.700 and you can make more and more with very cheap labor,

00:01:48.380 your economy is not growing 10%, it's growing 100%.

00:01:51.300 So you think we'll get to a point where there could be a possibility

00:01:54.740 of 90% unemployment, but the 10% is growing at such a fast rate

00:01:58.320 that it's paying the other 90% through taxes,

00:02:00.960 and whether they choose to work or not, it's up to them.

00:02:02.940 The economy will switch from being driven by humans

00:02:05.400 to being agent, AI, agent-driven economy.

00:02:08.300 Again, not superintelligence, just intelligent software.

00:02:12.580 What goes away?

00:02:13.580 What does life look like in 2036 in your mind?

00:02:16.640 I think the jobs you do to get money go away.

00:02:19.640 Things you do, you hate your job, but you need money,

00:02:21.960 you need to pay rent, so you do it, that goes away.

00:02:24.380 What stays is things you love doing, and you can't believe they pay you to do it.

00:02:29.300 Such as?

00:02:30.600 Podcaster.

00:02:34.680 So you do it because you love it, and you get paid by who?

00:02:37.520 The government?

00:02:38.380 Similar to how a...

00:02:39.420 Well, it depends.

00:02:40.460 So we said some wealth will remain.

00:02:42.400 So if people want to donate bitcoins to you, they can.

00:02:46.240 There is unconditional basic minimum income.

00:02:49.540 He calls it high income or something like that.

00:02:51.880 But if everyone makes it, it's not high.

00:02:53.680 it's average or below, but I think that's very doable in the economy, which is driven by free

00:03:00.500 labor. What happens to economy if you can hire as many people as you want for free? How well would

00:03:07.060 you scale your businesses if you had access to free everything, free lawyers? What's the incentive

00:03:11.440 for them, though? Those are AIs. You pay them, what are you paying right now, $20 a month for 0.99

00:03:15.780 basic plan? That's how much it costs to have them. That's your lawyer, that's your accountant,

00:03:20.220 that's your graphic designer.

00:03:22.360 Once they're at human level,

00:03:23.780 they literally are a drop-in employee for your company.

00:03:26.780 And everybody else goes doing whatever they're passionate about,

00:03:30.160 not even a job.

00:03:32.060 Go to virtual worlds, explore the universe, whatever you want.

00:03:37.980 And that's a weird world to me.

00:03:40.260 We are on the verge of making life very different.

00:03:43.800 People think in historic terms.

00:03:46.740 Countries compete over sand.

00:03:48.720 That makes no sense.

00:03:50.220 It's not a zero-sum game.

00:03:51.640 Economy can grow for everyone.

00:03:53.720 You don't have to have your enemies lose for you to win.

00:03:56.800 Everyone can win economically.

00:03:58.440 As long as there is drive, ambition, ego, pride, competition, vengeance,

00:04:05.800 as long as there is that, this utopian thing you're selling is not possible

00:04:12.460 because man has a tendency.

00:04:16.400 2,000 years ago there was this fruit,

00:04:18.440 or, you know, a few thousand years ago when they ate this apple thing

00:04:20.820 and their creator said, don't do it,

00:04:23.700 and the girl convinced the other guy to eat it.

00:04:26.000 From that moment on, we have a lot of weird emotions

00:04:28.940 that's been passed down from generation to generation.

00:04:32.600 Do you think we can handle utopia without any competition?

00:04:35.580 You see, even God couldn't control his biological robots.

00:04:38.680 No.

00:04:39.260 Telling you.

00:04:40.500 But what do you say to that?

00:04:42.820 It's a very large universe.

00:04:44.660 There is no shortage of resources.

00:04:46.080 Sometimes people fight because they have the same limited shared resource for two different people.

00:04:51.980 If everyone gets their own, there is no fighting.

00:04:55.380 Notice what happens when two fighting groups move somewhere else, and there is abundance.

00:05:00.120 They stop fighting.

00:05:00.940 Do you believe in God?

00:05:02.220 It depends on how you define it.

00:05:03.900 How do you define it?

00:05:04.920 Simulation.

00:05:06.320 We live in a simulation.

00:05:07.600 There is a great programmer.

00:05:09.900 It could be AI.

00:05:10.500 It could be future generations.

00:05:12.000 This is a virtual world.

00:05:14.320 Were you raised that way?

00:05:16.200 No, of course not.

00:05:17.320 Well, how were you raised?

00:05:18.840 I grew up in Soviet Union.

00:05:21.620 So, but was it like Catholic?

00:05:23.320 Was it materialism?

00:05:24.380 Was it like...

00:05:25.040 Soviet Union was strongly against religion.

00:05:27.080 It's materialistic.

00:05:28.200 Right.

00:05:28.480 It was materialistic.

00:05:30.080 So, so that's what you believed in.

00:05:33.200 How much has it changed from then till today?

00:05:35.600 Completely.

00:05:37.820 Tell me more.

00:05:38.800 I now think intelligence is a bottom layer behind all of it.

00:05:44.060 That's what makes a difference.

00:05:45.280 What do you think happens to religion in 10, 20 years?

00:05:48.900 I think we'll see a lot of what these books talk about delivered by science.

00:05:55.060 We'll have godlike superintelligence.

00:05:57.520 We'll have created worlds, virtual worlds populated by intelligent agents.

00:06:01.980 You can do it right now.

00:06:03.080 Second life type environments.

00:06:05.620 We'll have more of them.

00:06:06.560 We'll have them for marketing, for entertainment, for testing, for research.

00:06:10.260 We're going to have billions of virtual worlds looking just like ours.

00:06:14.200 And statistically, you're more likely to be an agent in one of those.

00:06:18.860 What problems does that create? 0.69

00:06:22.200 What problems does that create with specifically the different religions that we have?

00:06:28.060 Well, I think it hopefully resolves some of those problems

00:06:30.620 because now things you argue about, you can have your own universe.

00:06:34.040 You don't have to fight for the same resource.

00:06:36.680 Meaning you're only around people that agree with you?

00:06:39.440 That's one option.

00:06:40.260 If you choose to have that option, you have infinite options.

00:06:42.660 You can create any personal universe you want.

00:06:45.200 You can be the only agent.

00:06:46.740 You can share it with friends and family.

00:06:48.520 You can have a very difficult universe where you have to fight enemies.

00:06:52.080 You decide.

00:06:53.560 You're three kids.

00:06:54.620 When you're talking career planning with them, what are you telling them?

00:06:58.000 I tell them drop out of school and start a business, but they're very bad kids.

00:07:01.940 They want to be doctors and lawyers.

00:07:03.980 Really?

00:07:04.460 They want to be doctors and lawyers?

00:07:06.940 But you literally tell them drop out of school and go start a business?

00:07:10.360 A doctor will take 10 years to even start.

00:07:13.140 You think in 10 years, the world will be the same?

00:07:16.320 Are they going to look for a human to decide what disease you have?

00:07:20.220 Did you see that, again, another one that Elon Musk was speaking to a panel about doctors and surgeons

00:07:25.700 and what it's going to look like in four to five years that surgery is going to be done?

00:07:29.360 But you can find it on X if you go on Musk and surgery and doctors.

00:07:33.480 Elon is always right.

00:07:34.640 He's just off on timing.

00:07:37.460 He's right, but off on timing.

00:07:39.040 He'll predict self-driving cars, but he'll say next June, and it could take 10 years.

00:07:44.220 Yeah, got it.

00:07:45.160 But he's always right.

00:07:46.100 Is this the one that, yeah, this is it.

00:07:48.140 If you want to play this clip, go for it.

00:07:49.920 When do you think Optimus will be a better surgeon than the best surgeons?

00:07:55.820 How long for that?

00:07:57.100 Three years.

00:07:57.660 Three years.

00:07:58.060 Three years, okay.

00:08:00.100 And by the way, that's it.

00:08:01.380 Three years at scale.

00:08:03.160 Yes.

00:08:03.400 There will probably be more optimist robots that are great surgeons than there are all surgeons on Earth.

00:08:10.500 And the cost of that, but that's an important statement in three years' time.

00:08:15.180 Because medicine, I mean, I'm not like absolutely certain, but I'd say if you say like four years, I'd be absolutely certain.

00:08:20.100 If it's four or five years, who cares?

00:08:21.900 It's still extreme precision.

00:08:24.040 Yes.

00:08:24.440 Three years.

00:08:26.360 Yes.

00:08:27.340 Better than any, probably, I'd say if you like put a little margin on it, better than any human in four years.

00:08:33.400 who's in plastic surgery by five years it's not even close i think your point was

00:08:38.520 medicine it might be good to explain here that time is relative to the speed at which you're

00:08:43.240 moving through the universe so if ai is now a scientist doing research and it's a thousand

00:08:48.360 times faster than a human scientist then those three years are three millennia so if ai is doing

00:08:53.960 research on robotic surgeons that may be enough time the question is at what speed are we moving

00:09:00.200 through the space time so is it the fact that your kids what do your kids think about you

00:09:06.160 you have to bring them on the podcast but let me explain what i mean by this like

00:09:11.440 you know as parents i got four kids so you're telling them about career planning like yeah

00:09:16.640 you know i'm gonna do this they know their dad went viral they know that they know when you go

00:09:22.860 to school to drop them off or pick them up a couple of them drive they're older but their

00:09:27.700 Their friends say, hey, you know, hey, mister, you know, good to see you.

00:09:32.560 They talk to you like that, right? 0.99

00:09:33.620 But do they think, dad, you're crazy. 0.90

00:09:36.500 This is too negative. 0.79

00:09:37.400 There's no way that's going to be happening.

00:09:38.700 I'm going to go be a doctor.

00:09:39.720 It's going to be fine.

00:09:40.600 What do they think?

00:09:41.640 What do they believe?

00:09:42.740 I don't think there is anyone who has a counterargument to what I'm saying.

00:09:47.960 It's all emotion.

00:09:49.260 It's all, but we can't give up, but we want money, but it's whatever.

00:09:52.480 There is no technical arguments.

00:09:53.880 No one is saying he's wrong because we have a solution.

00:09:58.520 We have a patent.

00:09:59.620 We published a paper in Nature explaining how to do it.

00:10:02.780 There is no other side.

00:10:04.280 I cannot have a debate where someone would present factual scientific arguments.

00:10:08.660 They can say, you're wrong.

00:10:10.380 I don't believe you. 1.00

00:10:11.600 You are a Chinese spy.

00:10:13.360 That's what I hear.

00:10:14.420 There is never a technical argument.

00:10:16.160 Here is the algorithm.

00:10:17.220 It controls it.

00:10:18.140 It scales.

00:10:18.600 yeah but uh your your own kids today is when you say emotions is it emotions like yeah i don't

00:10:28.940 think it's going to happen i'm still going to go do my own thing or do you notice more younger kids

00:10:33.620 coming to you and truly asking for counsel saying what if you believe this is what's going to be

00:10:39.900 happening you seem very certain about it how should i manage my career do you see that happening with

00:10:44.120 the youth or your your kids friends as a college professor i certainly see lots of young people

00:10:49.360 trying to figure out what to do they're very concerned they're starting let's say a four-year

00:10:53.620 degree in computer science part of it is learning to program computers you're like you're like you

00:10:58.660 would be the worst computer science teacher because you're telling them i don't know what

00:11:01.880 i'm teaching you but you don't have a job like i know what i'm teaching you but i cannot guarantee

00:11:07.320 you'll have a job in four years doing this so professor why am i why should i continue listening

00:11:13.040 to you and going through this class if what you're teaching me is going to be extinct in a year?

00:11:17.420 For reasons of continuous employment, I'm not going to answer that question.

00:11:21.400 At least you're honest about it. It's like, you know, I'm getting paid. This is how I get paid.

00:11:26.060 I mean, every job is like that. It's not unique to mine.

00:11:28.540 Okay. So if all of a sudden tomorrow you got a $5 million check from somewhere,

00:11:35.280 would you still continue teaching?

00:11:37.520 You're assuming I don't have $5 million.

00:11:39.620 Let's say somebody, no, I'm doing, let's just say you're a professor. Professors make what?

00:11:43.040 prefers to make $300,000, $400,000 a year?

00:11:45.480 A person at your level, let's say.

00:11:47.260 No.

00:11:48.060 Okay, let's say $200,000.

00:11:48.720 You live in a bubble.

00:11:50.140 We don't make anywhere close to that.

00:11:52.640 Let's say $200,000 a year.

00:11:54.160 Think of it as I'm a teacher in Kentucky.

00:11:56.820 Okay, you make $100,000 a year.

00:11:58.400 Here we go.

00:11:58.900 Okay, so if you make $100,000 a year,

00:12:01.000 a third is gone, you're keeping $70,000,

00:12:03.320 $6,000 after taxes.

00:12:05.500 If somebody paid you $5 million right now

00:12:08.060 after tax money that you're able to keep,

00:12:10.320 would you still keep teaching?

00:12:11.960 Yeah, my job is not related to my...

00:12:13.980 Why would you keep...

00:12:14.660 But you just said right now,

00:12:15.700 I'm teaching it because I have an obligation

00:12:17.360 and I have to make money.

00:12:18.440 I don't know.

00:12:18.820 I said I want to keep my employment.

00:12:20.460 Why do you want to keep your employment?

00:12:22.220 It opens a lot of doors when you have affiliation.

00:12:25.280 If you say, I'm an independent scholar

00:12:26.900 studying superintelligence simulation and consciousness,

00:12:29.740 they usually show the door.

00:12:31.340 Whereas I can talk to governments,

00:12:32.820 I can talk to people who respect credentials.

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00:13:26.720 If you enjoyed this video,

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Valuetainment - August 31, 2026

＂90% Unemployment＂ – AI Expert Predicts an Economy Where Nobody Needs to Work

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