Valuetainment - March 05, 2026


“A Skunk At The Party” - Jamie Dimon CAUTIONS Against Iran War Inflation Fears


Episode Stats


Length

11 minutes

Words per minute

205.02951

Word count

2,397

Sentence count

202

Harmful content

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says Iran's conflict with the US won't have a major inflationary impact on the economy. Does he have a point? And what does that mean for the rest of the world?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:12.960 Jamie Dimon was asked about how this affects the economy. Here's what Jamie had to say.
00:00:18.440 He says Iran's conflict won't be major inflationary hit.
00:00:24.280 Rob, I don't know if you have a clip on this. I think you do. Go for it.
00:00:28.580 As people kind of think about the potential ripple effects of higher oil prices, for example, obviously today's move is just one day.
00:00:35.840 Do you see a risk that this could lead to sustained inflation over the long run?
00:00:40.160 I don't think this thing in an isolated way will.
00:00:42.780 I think there's some risk there's more inflation than people think.
00:00:46.220 And that could be like a skunk at a party if that ever happens.
00:00:49.300 Hopefully it doesn't happen and no one actually knows.
00:00:52.220 But this right now will increase gas prices a little bit.
00:00:55.700 And again, if it's not prolonged, there's not going to be a major inflationary hit.
00:00:59.260 Again, if it went on for a long time, that would be different.
00:01:02.100 Another concern that I've seen mentioned out there is the risk of retaliatory cyber attacks, banks being a potential target there.
00:01:10.140 How concerned are you about that?
00:01:11.460 I know that's something that you mentioned in your letter about a year ago.
00:01:16.040 I think the most important thing is that we keep the Western world free and safe for democracy.
00:01:20.500 You know, and people like this have gotten away literally with murder for 50 years.
00:01:24.340 So that's far more important.
00:01:26.160 But, you know, as a corollary to that, you've got to expect there will be cyber attacks or terrorist attacks either here or around the world.
00:01:34.640 You know, banks maybe target so many, you know, plenty of other people.
00:01:38.220 And we always try to be prepared for that.
00:01:40.020 We never try to predict when, why, where.
00:01:41.880 We spend a lot of money protecting ourselves from cyber.
00:01:44.180 We think it's part of our job.
00:01:45.080 But I've always said, I would consider that one of the highest risk banks bear, not just the cycle, cyber.
00:01:50.880 Yes, I remember that from your letter last year.
00:01:54.060 And, of course, we are here at the Leveraged Finance.
00:01:56.480 Tom, thoughts?
00:01:57.360 So, Jamie Dimon is speaking at the Global Leveraged Finance Conference.
00:02:03.060 Translation, this is where they have their butt hung out with billions and billions and billions of global leverage.
00:02:12.940 Translation, loans to the rest of the world.
00:02:16.500 The only thing he's going to do is be a secretary of state and try to talk about calmness, especially sitting there at his own conference on global leveraged finance.
00:02:28.240 The last thing he wants would be to make some spook comments because Jamie is probably one of the few voices in America outside the Fed that can move a market, like, radically because a lot of people fall behind him.
00:02:41.840 So, Snyder.
00:02:43.660 Yeah, Jamie and inflation, there's a tortured history there.
00:02:48.480 I mean, last year he talked about how tariffs were going to create much more inflation than people were expecting.
00:02:55.640 At the same time, J.P. Morgan was buying U.S. Treasury bonds hand over fist.
00:03:00.880 So you never know what he's actually – but you're right.
00:03:03.180 He is more of a politician –
00:03:04.840 Exactly.
00:03:05.260 He's more of a politician than anything.
00:03:06.900 And so his whole point here is to maintain calm.
00:03:11.280 He realizes that if oil prices go higher, it's going to create a bunch of trouble.
00:03:16.200 There's already trouble percolating up in the credit markets to begin with, especially in private credit and leverage loans in particular.
00:03:23.520 So he is – yeah, let's keep this at the absolute minimum so that people don't get too upset about what's taking place.
00:03:30.500 Mark?
00:03:30.620 Well, I think, as you said, I mean, when Jamie talks, you have to listen.
00:03:34.840 He's one of the few people that can move markets, as you said.
00:03:37.820 He understands what's going on.
00:03:39.260 Now, of course, he has to talk his own book, and his job is to calm the market, so to speak.
00:03:42.760 But I would say, you know, as far as is he right or wrong, of course he's right.
00:03:46.660 It's pretty obvious.
00:03:47.420 If this is a prolonged conflict, we're going to have inflation for any number of reasons, and we can go through the list of what those are.
00:03:53.780 If this is relatively short, it gets wrapped up in four or five weeks, as Trump said, maybe it will, then probably it's just a little blip and it's not a big deal.
00:04:00.700 But certainly we already see a little bit of uptick in oil prices, a little bit of uptick in gas.
00:04:05.900 I think not only about prices going up because of supply chains and oil prices, et cetera, but also because of the sheer amount of debt and monetary stimulus we're going to need to fight this war as well.
00:04:16.340 So if it's prolonged, yes, we're going to have inflation.
00:04:18.540 And I think, you know, Trump ran on a couple main points, number one, bringing inflation down, two, having markets do very, very well, and three, peace, no wars.
00:04:29.380 And so a sustained conflict takes away all three of those points.
00:04:32.900 But two, anyway, to Jamie's points, if this is sustained, yeah, inflation is going to be a problem.
00:04:37.200 Okay.
00:04:37.520 All right.
00:04:37.720 We'll see.
00:04:38.240 I mean, last time, Rob, we ran a poll.
00:04:40.800 The poll was how long do you think this is going to last?
00:04:44.260 And what was the number?
00:04:45.460 57% said less than four weeks.
00:04:47.240 Some 50% to 60% said less than four weeks.
00:04:49.840 Are you guys in the same spot?
00:04:52.040 You're not?
00:04:53.120 Okay.
00:04:53.580 Why don't we do this, Rob?
00:04:54.400 Why don't we do this?
00:04:54.940 I think it lasts longer.
00:04:55.320 Don't say anything, Rob.
00:04:56.360 Run another poll, identical, because now it's been how long?
00:05:00.900 It's been five days, right?
00:05:02.320 Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.
00:05:04.280 We're now, today's Wednesday or Thursday?
00:05:05.700 I think today's Wednesday.
00:05:06.540 Wednesday.
00:05:06.860 Wednesday.
00:05:07.200 Five days.
00:05:08.100 They all blend together.
00:05:09.220 Ask the same exact question, and I'm curious to know what the audience is saying on how long they
00:05:14.700 think it's going to last now.
00:05:16.020 And pull it up on Polymarket, too.
00:05:18.940 Polymarket has it up.
00:05:20.040 Calci and Polymarket, they have it?
00:05:21.260 Okay.
00:05:21.540 We'll take a look at that as well.
00:05:23.180 Rob, if you want to post that, I'm curious, because...
00:05:26.740 I'm sure there's a Calci on that.
00:05:28.340 100% there's going to be Calci.
00:05:30.440 Rob, did you post it or not yet?
00:05:31.960 I'm posting it right now.
00:05:33.220 Okay.
00:05:33.520 The other day, Polymarket had like 50% ending in like 12 weeks.
00:05:37.740 Ending in 12 weeks?
00:05:38.700 Yeah, 50%.
00:05:39.540 A couple days ago.
00:05:40.420 I don't know where it's at as of today.
00:05:42.080 Where do you think it's going, Jeff?
00:05:43.260 I think this is more complex than people want to give it credit.
00:05:46.260 Four weeks, I think, is overly optimistic.
00:05:48.200 This is a very complex operation that takes time.
00:05:51.340 And unlike previous administrations, I mean, they're absolutely right talking about this.
00:05:54.400 I mean, think about the first Gulf War.
00:05:55.600 As soon as they got into the complex part of it, the Bush administration said, oh, we're done.
00:06:01.580 They stopped way short of where they probably should have.
00:06:04.100 And I think it was a realization that to go to the final lengths that they wanted to go to,
00:06:09.600 the final lengths that the Trump administration wants to go to, this is not a four-week operation.
00:06:13.960 This is a complex operation.
00:06:15.420 It's going to take time.
00:06:16.960 It's going to take an investment.
00:06:18.580 I think they're laying the groundwork for that to take place.
00:06:20.760 That's why they're saying four weeks, maybe five, we'll see how it goes.
00:06:25.180 But that doesn't mean it's going wrong.
00:06:26.880 It just means it takes time to do what they're trying to do.
00:06:29.640 Because what they're trying to do is not have to do this every couple of years.
00:06:35.540 Yeah, it's funny.
00:06:36.180 Right now, if you look at the poll, Rob, if you want to pull it up, is that it?
00:06:39.460 Yes, sir.
00:06:39.820 Okay, it's 2,000 sample size, a little over 2,000, 25% less than a month, one to three months, 44%,
00:06:47.260 three to six months, 12, six months plus, 19.
00:06:50.240 Now, when we did the same exact poll on Saturday, look what Saturdays look like.
00:06:54.600 You have a picture of it, Rob, if you just want to.
00:06:56.400 It's going to be a little bit pixelated.
00:06:58.880 How long do you think it'll last?
00:07:00.520 6,000 votes, 47% less than a month.
00:07:03.880 And that is now flipped from less than a month to one to three months in five days.
00:07:08.820 So I'll take the one to three.
00:07:11.820 You'll take the one to three?
00:07:12.740 I'll take the one to three.
00:07:13.440 And I say that based off of Trump seems to have this pattern.
00:07:18.180 So if you look at this pattern that he has where if we look at the tariff negotiations, for example, right,
00:07:24.640 he has this pattern where he comes in and says, hey, if we're going to make a deal
00:07:29.120 and I'm going to take everything from you, really, really strong.
00:07:31.520 And then he sort of like backs off like make a deal.
00:07:33.380 Then he started moving warships over, started staging them.
00:07:36.380 So we saw it happening with Maduro as well.
00:07:38.360 Started staging the ship, started applying pressure.
00:07:41.260 And then he backs it off.
00:07:42.260 He starts kind of seeding the news stories like, hey, there's probably a deal coming.
00:07:45.580 Then no deal happens.
00:07:46.980 And so you see these waves of power.
00:07:49.200 And so when we look at the tariffs, when we look at Maduro, Venezuela, et cetera,
00:07:54.260 I think about six to 12 weeks seems to be about the time frame that it takes to go from like that sort of first pressure to getting the deal done.
00:08:03.980 Do you have the Calci numbers, Rob?
00:08:05.300 And we'd have to say what done looks like.
00:08:07.660 Yeah.
00:08:07.880 And so when I say done, obviously, to your point, this is probably going to take a long time.
00:08:11.620 But what I would say what done looks like is where the war de-escalates.
00:08:15.940 Yes.
00:08:16.480 What is this?
00:08:17.280 The show is done when the Straits of Hormuz is no longer any threat and then they can still do whatever it is they need to do.
00:08:22.700 It's really the active conflict that leads to potentially escalating branches.
00:08:27.880 I mean, that's really done.
00:08:29.280 We'll see that part.
00:08:30.460 Go back to that Calci, Rob.
00:08:31.600 Is that the one that we're looking at?
00:08:33.440 U.S.-Iran nuclear deal?
00:08:34.640 Oh, that's a whole different thing.
00:08:35.920 I think that part, I don't, again, if it's regime change versus regime collapse, who the hell is negotiating nuclear deal?
00:08:44.320 If it's about regime collapse, there is no nuclear deal.
00:08:46.860 We're not doing no nuclear deal with you. 0.98
00:08:48.780 It's just there is no conversation similar to how, and this says what?
00:08:53.100 This says who the next leaders are going to be?
00:08:54.780 Yes, sir.
00:08:55.180 They have this one figured out.
00:08:58.900 $7 million.
00:09:00.240 $7 million waged on this one?
00:09:03.740 Interesting.
00:09:04.740 By the way, you know who's quietly coming up, Tom, who's getting more press than J.D.?
00:09:10.460 If you were to right now go and look at minutes on TV, okay, the last 90 days, who has more?
00:09:19.880 Is it Hexet or Rubio?
00:09:22.220 I'm sorry, Hexet or J.D.?
00:09:24.180 Yeah.
00:09:26.680 90 days.
00:09:27.880 Oh, it's Hexeth and Rubio over J.D.
00:09:32.260 So you realize it.
00:09:33.220 As they should.
00:09:33.240 Any way you want to look at it.
00:09:34.220 As they should right now.
00:09:35.740 It is as they should right now, but that's also, you know, a lot of these Calchis have J.D. at the top.
00:09:41.240 Now Hexet's coming up.
00:09:42.720 So imagine this ends good for Hexet.
00:09:45.000 Now you have a three-way race of who's going to be running for 2028.
00:09:49.480 You have J.D., you have Rubio, and you have, you know, Hexet wanting to put his hat in there.
00:09:53.740 Didn't Rubio say, if J.D. runs, I'm not going to run?
00:09:56.940 He did.
00:09:57.720 But let me tell you, the people that are in his ear, they have a lot of work to do to kind of shift his mindset to be like, look, you know, you don't get it.
00:10:05.800 Think about how hot DeSantis was in 2020, 2021.
00:10:09.780 Remember how hot he was at one point?
00:10:11.420 And he won by 34,000 votes first time.
00:10:14.100 Second time he won by a million and a half.
00:10:16.420 Check how many chances.
00:10:17.320 Everybody forgot already what DeSantis did.
00:10:19.800 DeSantis' news is yesterday, right?
00:10:21.840 If this is happening right now, Hexet may want to get involved and participate in some of the stuff that's going on.
00:10:28.200 Show us you how quickly we forget, because remember that.
00:10:29.980 We were talking about that for three days on a national level, not just this podcast.
00:10:33.800 Which one?
00:10:34.180 On a national level, when the re-election of DeSantis, oh, my gosh, he won Dade County.
00:10:40.560 Remember that?
00:10:41.200 A Republican won Dade County.
00:10:43.060 It was only Orange County, a small, you know, part of Orlando he lost.
00:10:47.520 Oh, my gosh, he's on a roll.
00:10:49.260 And guess what?
00:10:50.320 One season later.
00:10:51.640 For those of you guys that are watching this and you're tuning in, I've got two more stories to do before we wrap up.
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