Alarming Predictions Made About China & US Economy
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 23 minutes
Words per minute
172.51772
Harmful content
Misogyny
13
sentences flagged
Toxicity
43
sentences flagged
Hate speech
56
sentences flagged
Summary
In this episode of Value Taming, Patrick and Daniel discuss alarming predictions made about China and the U.S. economy, and the impact they are having on the American economy. They also discuss the impact masks have had on our understanding of the world, and what could have been done better.
Transcript
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30 seconds did you ever think you would make it i feel i'm so close i could take sweet victory
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i know this life meant for me yeah why would you bet on goliath when we got bet david
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value taming giving values contagious this world of entrepreneurs we get no value to haters how
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they run homie look what i've become i'm the i'm the one i'm patrick bedevio host of item and today
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i'm sitting down with daniel de martino boot this is our second interview together and this time
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we're talking about alarming predictions made about china and the u.s economy daniel thank you
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for being back on value taming and we've got a special surprise for everybody today yes we have
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a special surprise at the end so a long drum roll but okay cannot wait to do that at the end so
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opening question from the last time we met to today april 7th to three and a half months later
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what's changed both what you feel optimistic about and what are you more pessimistic about in the last
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three and a half months so optimism pessimism um we have seen in the past few months i think
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the best that america can be i believe that in the aftermath of the great depression we saw
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the country come together and we've seen that on so many levels over the past few months we've seen
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people's hearts open up we've seen people's wallets open up it's just it's been tremendous
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you know it for for a time there and we're still at risk of this you know patriotism was a four-letter
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word and i i think that having the country come into a crisis of this magnitude has helped bring out
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the best in americans and along the way we're discovering our innovative inner selves there
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are going to be generations of new types of companies that come out of this and the the trend
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towards how we receive services in this country is accelerated exponentially and i think that that's
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fabulous for the next generation of entrepreneurs they've got massive opportunity that's what you're
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optimistic about what are you pessimistic about what got worse in the last everything else 100 days
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everything else what's the biggest one out of everything um the lack of coordination okay the lack
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of coordination is going to cost this country countless small businesses and that's where my focus is
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my focus is on the backbone of the country okay and the small business owners who wanted to hold on
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for dear life for a successful coordinated thoughtful well-led reopening who are having to reclose again
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and that's it they're calling it a day now a successful person cannot be stopped by one failure
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these people will come back but it's going to be a huge setback that it wasn't necessary it would it
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didn't have to be the way it is right now because we're we're going from having optimism about a v-shaped
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recovery to knowing full well that we're going into a w and there's no way to stop it not even though
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you're going to w we're going into a w shape there's absolutely no doubt about it absolutely no doubt so
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what wasn't done what what could have been done better in the way of handling the original no mask
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mask hoax no hoax coronavirus slowdown what could have been done better the president told us today
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the president is on the wires today he has a mask on he has said he's tweeted it out himself with a
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picture of a mask it has come to my attention that if there's not an opportunity to social distance
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if that's just not there then wearing a mask is the next best thing so i'm the biggest patriot in
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the world i'm putting on my mask you do too he tweeted it out today that should have been tweeted
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out on day one that should have been where it started it should have never been on day one what is day
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one well unfortunately medicine and science don't behave the way we want them to if his closest medical
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advisors scientific advisors flip the switch for whatever reason they felt like pp was available
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in abundance for whatever reason if the people because you have to rely on experts you're not
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you're president you're not god so you you're allowed to rely on the people you put around you
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but the day that it was decided that maybe masks are better we're looking at other countries and we're
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seeing their example they're having an easier time closing down they're having a much easier time much
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more importantly reopening masks are better the science was still on both sides but on that day had he gone
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with his closest advisors there would be millions of people who would be able to keep their jobs
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and it's as simple as that how much of that is on him how much of that is on fauci well again
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he's fauci did terrible damage to to the cause of masks in the 60 minutes interview coming flat out
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and saying that they were not necessary um when it was decided that that was a mistake it needs to have
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been sung from the hills this was a huge mistake on mark on my part mia culpa but please trump or fauci fauci
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okay but please in all humility yeah please listen now please listen to me now and you know what listen to
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my equivalence around the world listen to my equivalence in other countries look at the examples of other countries
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countries that are going to reopen much better than we have germany take to take but one example
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don't listen to me if you don't if you've lost confidence in me listen to them look at their
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example and then make the decision to not have it be a patchwork approach from one state to the next
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look this is still a baby virus we are living under the assumption that it is agnostic to heat
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well i am sorry but it is 96 degrees and they just raised the level in brownsville texas to a level
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four because their hospitals are overwhelmed this virus doesn't give a damn about the heat
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maybe it's even angrier when you get to the cold we don't know until we get to the fall but it's still
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a baby virus but it's raged through much of the country and i don't look at this from a scientific
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perspective and that is what gets oh i don't know 99 of my twitter followers so angry as i don't i won't
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look at this from a scientific perspective because i'm not a medical doctor i'm not an epidemiologist
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and i never will be what i know is that the media is a source of dissension in america and divisiveness
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the mainstream media so every single time i cite a source i go to this website called media bias
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fact check and they have a spectrum the wall street journal is right of center leaning cnn's
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probably way on the left i don't know i don't ever cite cnn per se but gallup polls which has been
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around since 1935 is smack dab in the middle not biased period end and i find it to be a great
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resource especially as we get closer to elections because a lot of polling is biased so late april
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gallup did a poll and they queried americans based on their age based on their political affiliation
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based on their educational level what do you feel is the efficacy of masks yay or nay well 41 percent
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of college graduates believed in masks so i then because analysis is about connecting the dots
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not looking at different sightings in vacuums so i connect that 41 percent or 46 percent of post
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degree holders and i look and see what they make what their what their incomes are these two cohorts
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go into the top fourth and fifth quintiles of income earners in america 80th to 100 percent 60 to
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80 percent top 20 percent of america just 40 percent of america top 40 percent of america top 40 percent
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of american earners okay they are responsible for 61 percent of consumption
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us gdp is 75 percent consumption put differently the people who believe in masks forget the science
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the people who believe in masks are responsible for 42 percent of u.s gdp
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fear and i know you i know you know about fear and i know you cannot stand fear fear is powerful
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if i'm joe q american with the greatest spending power and i'm afraid to come out of the door
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the economy is going to stop and you know what the economy has stopped because they're afraid to come out
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now there were certain places in germany if you decided to go out and in a public place without a
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mask on that's fine you need to get get out your wallet and pay a 10 000 euro fine you make up your
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own mind their restaurants are open their restaurants are open 20 percent over 2019 at this time right
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now fine wonderful people are like 10 000 euros oh wear the mask but the country's economy is open
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and you've got your spenders out there spending we don't have that in the united states of america
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and that means that small business owners who are in neighborhoods of wealthy people
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have disproportionately gone out of business say that one more time dry cleaners restaurants in the
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highest zip codes in america small businesses and highest uh wealth of america they've gone out of
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business disproportionately why because the people who they serve are afraid to leave their homes
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so okay by the way the way you process that was very logical i mean it's just a pure way of
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reasoning and brown university have come together because real-time data is very hard to come by so
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they've created a national repository that is free and you can follow all of the data based on
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highest middle and lowest zip codes lowest income earning zip codes in the lowest income earning zip
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codes the recipients of the 600 extra per week that's 15 billion dollars a week of fiscal stimulus
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in this one 600 extra a week in unemployment insurance that's part of the cares act in the lowest
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income zip codes the bottom third spending through july the 11th was down 1.8 percent since january
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not even really a blip right that's not even a recession no it's not okay in the highest zip codes
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spending was down 11.8 percent that's a recession i see what you're saying so what you're saying is
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the the top 40 percent educated these are folks that maybe have a degree they're they're making
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decent income uh and they're doing a little bit more research than maybe the bottom would and they
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can work from home and they can work from home they're spending less the 11.8 versus the 1.8 which is
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pretty much 10x that give or take it's i think it is 10x that to be exact as 10x that that's a pretty
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scary number right there uh uh 10 point is about seven times six times it's a big number let me go
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back to what you said with fauci and trump okay because this is something that comes up a lot
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so fauci says masks are not effective okay and even you see fauci when he uses the mask when he was
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uh being grilled i think by uh ran paul and ran paul saying who are you to tell us where kids
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shouldn't go back to school and he's touching his mask putting it down picking it up putting it back
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up putting it up putting going back and forth right here's a guy that we're supposed to listen
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to that's not good mass protocol that's not a good mass protocol and we're supposed to follow your
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example why do you think trump doesn't trust fauci well i think maybe he is looking for consistency
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in analysis and that's that's okay but trump is one man he is in washington dc within three hours
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of him he has some of the best scientists in the world whether you're talking about mit or down in
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new york at corner he has he has access to all sorts of people who have continued to do the studies
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the wall street journal front page today says well you know what they have finally figured it out
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masks are more efficacious than not and by the way if you want to reopen the economy to the maximum that
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you can just i'm just talking about money wear masks and this economy i don't mean to be insensitive to
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the horror of this virus this virus is agnostic the economy only revolves around money
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okay fair enough let me take it a different angle for you here on this topic so we've had a lot of
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pandemics in the past before i mean i went and pulled them up and i kind of looked at the numbers
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because when the pandemic happened i was in la on my board meeting and de la jolla and everybody
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you know said oh we're not going to come to the board folks from greenish didn't fly in
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i said we're coming back so we came back to dallas i pulled up i said let me see what the pandemics
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have done in the past top 10 and see what kind of returns they've had i pulled up aids uh pneumonic
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plague sars avion flu all these fever swine cholera mers ebola and i looked at everything to see how the
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market will do six to 12 months later how fast does it recover right every one of them recovers six to
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12 months later except for one of them which is aids aids is the only one that was minus 16 and a
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half 12 months later you look at nasdaq nasdaq is now what nasdaq is now at uh give or take uh you
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know shy of 11 000 right it's it's up it's doing good for itself so for some that are wondering
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sitting there saying danielle you make a very good point here's my question for you how come we've never
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shut down in the past and we've had different pandemics why have we not shut down why are we
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shutting down this time what is the difference so there are two things going on first of all
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the stock market is completely divorced from from the economy right now there are few who would dispute
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that it is it is not reflective of the economy or the economy's prospects it's reflective of the
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federal reserve printing more money than they ever have and rescuing junk rated issuers you had
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record bankrupt bankruptcies in june you had record junk bond issuance in june these things don't tend
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to happen together unless there's this artificial force in fact today a republican on the hill
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suggested that there be an inquiry into the fed pumping so much money into the financial system
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when as best as we can tell the markets are doing just fine so i'll i'll be coming to the hill myself
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i'll testify if they need me so that's one thing but you're asking a much deeper question
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it takes us back to the first time that we visited um in fact i spoke to my friend leland miller about
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this a few days ago if you're flying blind in a twitter age in a world of social media when you've got
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when you've got people up in the middle of the night looking at satellite imagery over wuhan and
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tweeting it out the next day saying look at this it's got to be the crematoriums going at night
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it can't be anything else from the sky well how would we know one way or the other what it was what we
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do know about instilling fear and inciting fear is nobody believes the chinese data nobody now if you're
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john or jang q world leader and the only thing that you know about this virus is that it's really
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contagious and that that's all you can say about it because the chinese didn't let the world health
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organization in no data came out so you are a scientific community flying blind into the eye
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of a storm and you can't even say how big the storm is or isn't you just know that it's something that
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was a massive cover-up because there was enough social media that got in and got out and enough
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imagery to scare the hell out of you of people bodies lying dead here and there that you're like
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oh hell this is really bad can you quantify it no china held back with the data so we didn't know what
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the fatality rate was from day one we just knew to be really really really afraid of it and if you look
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at places like baja california where 50 of people who walk through the hospital don't walk out with
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covid in countries where there are no health health care systems to speak of because you know
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what we've gotten to be much better at treating this thing much much better march new york city
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you enter the icu with covid 60 chance you're dead today nationwide 42 chance we've learned how to treat
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this thing much better and we're going at it and we're going at it fast but we had to learn without
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the benefit of the origin of this damn thing because data were never released from china so it's very
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possible that unlike in the past prior to the social media age when all information was disseminated
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immediately it's possible that there wouldn't have been this big of a reaction we just don't know
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okay so now i got a follow-up for you on that fair so you're saying we did the right thing
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shutting down that's what you're saying i'm saying that it's pretty consistent with what you're saying
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i'm saying that we did the right thing shutting down i'm saying that italy did the right thing
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shutting down germany did the right thing shutting down uk did the wrong thing shutting down too late
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herd immunity boris johnson that's what he wanted to do until he got coronavirus
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They have probably the highest developed world death rate out there.
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But closing down and closing down violently and then requiring masks and reopening, that's a different blueprint.
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Because, again, restaurants in Germany are up 20% year over year, reservations.
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But to manage what you're saying here, you are saying shutting down is the right choice here.
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Okay, so is it fair to say there will most likely be future SARS, Ebola, coronavirus, other forms of it?
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Is it fair to say that when this does happen, there's still going to be a 12 to an 18-month period where we can't figure out a vaccine?
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Okay, so what you're saying to me is 90% in the future when another pandemic happens, we're going to have more shutdowns over the next decade or two.
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But how do you know if you don't know anything about the virus?
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What you do know about the virus is we don't know what the true fatality rate is, and we won't know for a while.
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Not until we go past the risk of a second wave.
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And not every virus in the world is as contagious as this thing.
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There are many other viruses that there are not scores very high, and they still didn't shut down.
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The shutting down part is agreed, but again, in countries that didn't – let me put it differently.
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Are we going to be scarred by this as a nation by shutting down?
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I'm asking you my questions for a complete – you're about to get a curveball when I ask you what direction I'm going with this.
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But to ask me the question, are we going to be scarred by shutting down?
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Well, so are lots of countries that got whacked by viruses that we didn't get whacked by in Asia.
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And when this happened, they treated it much differently.
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But what you're saying is it's a new way of handling this issue, is what you're saying.
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Whoever that runs and becomes president, it's fair to say that they're going to have a lot of pressure if there's a pandemic,
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that they're going to have to shut down because they're going to say, back in 2020.
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No, because we're going to be scarred as a nation.
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We're going to say we're never going to go back to shutting down again.
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Do you know the risk of that president not shutting down?
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No, I don't because nothing happened to the president in South Korea.
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Now, they emptied out their restaurants of half the tables.
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Everybody put masks on and everybody social distance, but nothing closed down.
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Okay, so what you're saying is it's fair to say we have another virus.
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The likelihood of us shutting down 50%, going down to 50% restaurant, we're not going to be at 100% or 75%.
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We're going to go to 50% and shutting down gyms, all this other stuff.
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That stuff is pretty much going to be protocol moving forward.
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But think about the generation of pharmaceuticals.
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Think about the mass manufacturer outside of Dallas who, in the aftermath of SARS, was promised a government contract but didn't get one.
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Think about the next generation of pharmaceuticals and personal protective equipment that's coming to our country, coming soon to a country near you.
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Never to be relied upon the kindness of the people in China again.
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But we can have our response mechanism can be fast.
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But what I'm thinking when I'm asking with this is, so in the future, when another pandemic happens, if we look at these, the timeline on these are AIDS 81, pneumonic plague 94, SARS 03, avion flu 2003, the next fever 06, swine flu 09, cholera 2010, MERS 2013, Ebola 20.
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It's every two, three years that we have something like this that's coming up.
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So every two or three years, we should be prepared to potentially shut down or lower ourselves from 100% to 75% to 50%.
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And are you also saying because it is the whole quantitative easing and sending $600 per week to people to be able to save us from going through that ought to be the new norm?
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This is where the one Ebola person came to the whole country.
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In fact, my pulmonologist is the guy who, Gary Weinstein, that's my doctor.
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So I can't jack with this COVID thing personally.
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But he treated the one Ebola person who came to the United States here in Dallas.
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So Ebola was kind of a good thing because it stayed away from us.
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We don't know what future viruses are going to behave like.
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But we do know that future leaders can be prepared.
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And modifying our behavior is not shutting down the economy.
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And this has been so devastating that I hope it never happens.
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And the greatest fear is that we turn to some form of socialism.
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Because other countries will cook our goose, period, end.
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It seems like that's what's being proposed by a lot of people today in politics.
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I hope, I hope, I hope that, look, the stimulus bill has not been passed.
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And as far as I know, the GOP is pushing back hard against the 600.
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So we both know what industries have taken a biggest hit.
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I'll just read off some of the stats so we know, because I know you know this like the
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Okay, I got stats for industries, unemployment by industry.
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In May, leisure and hospitality, unemployment, 36%.
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And you had construction, manufacturing, 11.6%.
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And you had a few other industries that took a hit.
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Mining, coring, and oil and gas extraction, 17.8%.
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Well, if you're receiving an unemployment check,
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just because you're not missing your rent payment
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does not mean you can go out and buy a new Nissan Centra.
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are the 25 million Americans receiving that extra $600 a week.
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doesn't mean that they can go qualify to buy a new car
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We just talked about that they ought to shut down
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And if Fauci and Trump were on the same page, fine.
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and been irresponsible with the way he handles his mask
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Maybe we wouldn't have the problem that we have today,
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we will most likely go the same direction again
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We may have to go down from 100% to 75% to 50%.
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And some industries like gyms may have to shut down.
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what industries wouldn't you go into as a courier
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and what industries would you get into as a courier?
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So I think we've learned that a lot of industries,
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I mean, there are a lot of companies that are like,
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It is not industries that require a lot of touching.
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And people don't ever think of the United States
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You think of all these generations of outsourcing
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They've been able to grow by virtue of the fact
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so that they can try and keep up top-line revenues
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without having people come into the restaurants.
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There will be whoever is the youngest, smartest,
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who is starting a nationwide telemedicine network
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And frankly, as a mother, it's a little bit too late
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because I've gone to one too many pediatricians' appointments
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when apparently I'm coming to find out because of COVID
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it could have all been delivered to my home
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But there's going to be a whole new generation
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That means that mom and dad can be more productive.
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Life's going to be more streamlined in the future.
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Let's us be the next generation of manufacturers.
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because we're making things better than they do.