Valuetainment - July 21, 2022


Another 2008 Housing Crash - Or Worse? Real Estate Bubble Explained


Episode Stats


Length

20 minutes

Words per minute

200.07993

Word count

4,172

Sentence count

351

Harmful content

Misogyny

1

sentences flagged

Toxicity

7

sentences flagged

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, we cover the similarities between the real estate industry and the financial industry in the current recession and the 2008 financial crisis. We discuss how the same problems are happening today and how to prepare for what s ahead.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.320 Exactly a month ago today, we shot a market crash video, and at the time, I knew the market
00:00:04.400 was not in good shape, but the last 30 days, based on a lot of research and a lot of data
00:00:08.160 that we've looked at, which I want to share with you, as bad as I thought it was, it's
00:00:12.160 a lot worse.
00:00:12.760 Now, you get to do whatever you want to do with this data.
00:00:15.100 Dave Ramsey calls it fear porn, saying there's a lot of people getting scared, and they're
00:00:18.500 excited about the markets.
00:00:19.460 Nothing's going to happen to the market.
00:00:20.720 It's going to be all right, because the inventory's not taking a hit.
00:00:23.280 I'll give you data.
00:00:24.920 You read the data, free PDF.
00:00:27.020 Choose whatever you want to do with it, then make a decision for yourself, because
00:00:30.880 when you look at $3 trillion of wealth being lost in retirement in the first six months,
00:00:36.500 a trillion in crypto, and you know that domino effect, because the question becomes, is it
00:00:40.940 too late?
00:00:41.660 Can we do anything about it?
00:00:43.340 When people stop making money, and their wealth goes away, they have less disposable income.
00:00:49.860 When you have less disposable income, there's less spending.
00:00:52.680 When there's less spending, there's lower business profits.
00:00:54.920 Lower business profits leads to layoffs, then it's unemployment, then it's foreclosures
00:00:59.460 and bankruptcies, then divorce, crime, drugs, OD, alcohol, protests, riots, back at it again.
00:01:05.800 Sounds scary, but that's data.
00:01:08.100 And by the way, Elon Musk said, recession is part of the economical cycle that is natural
00:01:12.720 to go through it.
00:01:13.820 But there's three Ps that he talks about.
00:01:17.020 Number one is predict.
00:01:19.060 Always stay multiple moves ahead.
00:01:21.280 Number two, prepare.
00:01:22.800 Get ready for what's ahead.
00:01:24.200 And number three, persevere.
00:01:26.540 Stand tall and find a way to make it through.
00:01:29.220 And we're at the phase where you've got to be prepared, and you've got to persevere, and
00:01:32.700 you've got to find a way to make it through.
00:01:34.560 Okay, so a lot of this may sound scary, but I want you to put your logical hat on, set
00:01:38.040 aside the emotional hat, just go through these trends, process it together, and then make
00:01:42.360 a decision of what you want to do with yourself and your business moving forward.
00:01:45.540 Having said that, these are the topics we're going to cover.
00:01:47.740 Number one, mortgage industries.
00:01:48.900 How refi data is affecting the industry.
00:01:52.420 The interest rates.
00:01:53.720 How investors and builders are backing out and kind of changing their strategy.
00:01:58.140 Active listings.
00:01:59.320 Real estate value.
00:02:00.540 Construction layoffs.
00:02:01.780 Freddie Mac, Deputy Chief Economist, said something very interesting.
00:02:05.360 Foreclosures consequences.
00:02:07.220 And the similarities between now and 2008.
00:02:09.840 So before we get started, let me give a quick shout out to the sponsor of this video, and
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00:02:42.760 For me, back in 2007, 2008, when I was going through market crash, and I have no clue what's
00:02:48.600 going to be happening, especially 07, 08, 09, I start my own company.
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00:03:21.460 So let's get right into it.
00:03:22.520 First thing I want to look at is mortgage refis and how investors and builders are changing
00:03:26.880 their approach.
00:03:27.600 Now, when you think about the real estate industry, you have loan officers, you have realtors, you
00:03:32.440 have escrow, title, appraisal, all those guys, but I want to focus on loan officers.
00:03:37.120 What a loan officer does is when you're buying a house, say you're buying a million dollar
00:03:41.520 house, you need to get a million dollar loan approved so the realtor can show you the homes.
00:03:46.200 You go to a loan officer.
00:03:47.380 The loan officer comes back and gets you the loan for a million dollars and he'll say 3.8%,
00:03:52.480 5.4%.
00:03:53.540 The loan officer makes money in a couple of different ways.
00:03:56.320 One is new homeowners getting a loan from a loan officer or an existing homeowner who
00:04:03.880 is wanting to refinance their house for lower interest rates.
00:04:07.460 For example, you bought a million dollar house five years ago at 6%.
00:04:10.960 I'm just making up the number.
00:04:12.600 I call you, I'm the loan officer.
00:04:13.960 I call you a year later and I say, hey, interest rates have dropped from 6% to 4.5%.
00:04:18.600 I'd love to help you save some money on your payment.
00:04:21.660 I can lower your payment from $6,000 a month to $5,000 a month.
00:04:25.120 Oh my God, that's great.
00:04:26.000 Let's refinance.
00:04:26.980 That's refinance.
00:04:28.160 The loan officer makes roughly 2% on that loan.
00:04:30.640 If the loan is at that time, say a million dollars, 2%, $20,000, he's at 50%, he makes
00:04:35.300 10 grand.
00:04:35.960 That's the loan officer.
00:04:37.280 Now watch what's been happening with applications in the refi market.
00:04:40.280 Number one, mortgage application volume was 52.7% lower last week compared to the same
00:04:47.400 period one year ago, according to Mortgage Bankers Association.
00:04:50.900 Now that's mortgage application, which means I may be buying a house and I want to loan
00:04:55.800 for a new mortgage of a house I'm buying.
00:04:57.960 But watch refi.
00:04:59.720 Applications for refis on existing mortgage dropped 75% from a year ago, according to the
00:05:06.860 MBA's refinance mortgage application index.
00:05:09.700 According to AEI Housing Center, which tracks mortgage applications by the number of rate
00:05:13.600 locks, no cash refis have collapsed.
00:05:16.880 You ready?
00:05:17.760 By 93% from a year ago.
00:05:21.680 That's 93%.
00:05:22.860 Most of loan officers, 80% of their income was on refi the last few years.
00:05:28.340 The refi business is gone.
00:05:29.680 Which means if these guys were making 50 grand a month, now they're making roughly 10 grand
00:05:33.020 a month.
00:05:33.500 If they were making 20 grand a month, now they're making roughly $4,000 a month.
00:05:37.000 That's a very big difference.
00:05:39.480 So now, if you're somebody that's saying, Pat, I'm not in the real estate world.
00:05:42.420 I'm not good with math.
00:05:43.320 What does this really mean with interest rates?
00:05:44.700 Let me just simplify it for you.
00:05:46.220 If you bought a half a million dollar house, let's just say your loan is $500,000 and you
00:05:50.340 bought it two years ago and you got a nice 3% rate, your payment would be roughly $2,108.
00:05:56.100 Now, if you buy a house, which roughly today, the rates are on 6%, the same $500,000 loan
00:06:02.960 at 6% is $2,997.
00:06:07.420 That's nearly $900 higher.
00:06:09.600 Now, if you were to buy the same $500,000 loan at 9%, watch what happens here.
00:06:15.860 The payment becomes $4,023.
00:06:19.700 It doubles in payment from 3%.
00:06:21.920 Same loan amount, same house.
00:06:24.300 Everything's the same.
00:06:25.600 One was 3%.
00:06:26.700 It was $2,100 a month.
00:06:28.500 The other one is 9%.
00:06:29.500 It's $4,000 a month.
00:06:31.360 How many Americans can go from $2,100 a month to $4,000 a month?
00:06:35.440 Not many.
00:06:36.160 That's interest rates.
00:06:37.260 So now, some people in the real estate world, you may be watching and saying, Pat, give me
00:06:40.360 a break.
00:06:40.680 It's not going to go to 9%.
00:06:41.920 It's not going to go to 12%.
00:06:43.560 It's not going to go to 15%.
00:06:44.760 Okay, fair.
00:06:45.500 Maybe you're right.
00:06:47.000 But Musk said, prepare.
00:06:49.160 And I'm advising you to be prepared so you can persevere.
00:06:52.520 So let's say, what if it goes to 9%?
00:06:54.620 I think it's going to go to 10%.
00:06:56.360 I think it may even go higher than 10%, but I think it's going to touch 10%.
00:07:00.040 Let's take a look at the history of interest rates.
00:07:02.360 If you look at this chart from 1970 till today, today it shows around 5.7% interest rate.
00:07:08.440 If you go back a couple years, you'll see 3%, 2.8%.
00:07:12.140 You see how low it is right there.
00:07:13.640 Now, if you go back 20 years ago, you'll see it was at 5.8%.
00:07:17.300 Here's the crazy thing.
00:07:18.520 If you go back around 2008, 2007, and go all the way back from 1970 till around 2007, 2008,
00:07:26.500 rates were never below 5.7%.
00:07:31.160 If you gradually move back, you'll see it go to 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 18.5% during Jimmy
00:07:40.200 Carter era.
00:07:41.560 So you saw this.
00:07:43.180 I'm giving you history.
00:07:44.880 I'm not selling you a loan.
00:07:46.240 I'm not selling you to sell your house.
00:07:47.760 I don't benefit from you doing anything with your house.
00:07:50.420 I'm not in that business.
00:07:51.640 I'm giving you stats.
00:07:52.880 Here's a part you have to be very careful with.
00:07:54.980 Go to 81, when Jimmy Carter was president, and it was hyperinflation.
00:07:59.100 Everybody was like, oh my gosh, what's going on?
00:08:00.940 CD rates were at 14.5%.
00:08:02.660 What did we do back then that caused rates to go this high versus today?
00:08:09.120 What we did back then, was it as ugly as today?
00:08:11.120 Was it a big pandemic back then?
00:08:12.460 No.
00:08:13.580 Today, printing money after printing money after printing money after keeping rates so low
00:08:18.240 after all these things happening, we have fed the economy.
00:08:22.260 With so much fake success, that it's about to pay price for it.
00:08:26.320 Meaning, be prepared that it could go that high, but definitely be prepared that it could
00:08:30.980 touch 10%.
00:08:31.740 And if it does, my example of $500,000 at 3, 6, 9%, you got to do the math at around 10%.
00:08:38.260 Here's what this means.
00:08:39.720 A $500,000 loan is probably going to be a $250,000 loan five years right now at 9%, which
00:08:46.340 means value of property could drop 30%, 40%, 50% in certain areas.
00:08:53.200 Not saying it's going to happen.
00:08:54.620 Just be prepared that it could.
00:08:56.640 Now, when it comes down to builders, a recent article from Bloomberg said the following data.
00:09:02.400 Builders are slashing their prices on new homes at an unbelievable rate as the market cools
00:09:06.980 and prices drop at the fastest pace ready since 2006.
00:09:11.780 Austin, Texas, Nashville, new construction offering with price cuts has quadrupled from
00:09:16.120 a year earlier.
00:09:17.240 Phoenix tripled.
00:09:18.400 Tampa region doubled.
00:09:20.380 So now, I want you to take a look at this chart and kind of explain to you why this matters
00:09:23.560 so much when it comes down to builders.
00:09:25.240 You're seeing this chart that says 1 million homes.
00:09:27.180 And at the top, it says single family building backlog.
00:09:29.600 Look at the difference with the blue, which is single family homes under construction, permitted,
00:09:35.880 skyrocketing, that's inventory, and the orange is mortgage purchase demand.
00:09:41.820 This is from a U.S. Census Bureau.
00:09:43.400 So if we haven't more builders are building areas that is not bought by anybody, but mortgage
00:09:50.980 is dropping, that's when inventory goes up.
00:09:53.780 When inventory goes up, prices goes down.
00:09:56.020 So this is not a good sign to look at when it comes down to a value of homes staying stable.
00:10:00.920 So the next thing to take a look at is active listings, which Dave Ramsey, who said, you
00:10:04.600 know, this fear porn, all this stuff that he says, it's just not a big deal.
00:10:07.880 Maybe a little bit.
00:10:08.860 It's not going to happen.
00:10:09.680 Nothing over five years, which by the way, five years, he may be right that nothing's
00:10:13.280 really going to happen over five years, but we're talking today.
00:10:16.120 Okay, we're talking today when, hey, I want to buy a house right now.
00:10:18.560 You may want to wait another year till you buy a house.
00:10:20.880 Just watch this data here and you make a decision for yourself.
00:10:23.120 So this is from realtor.com showing active listings and you'll see the different colors
00:10:28.700 represent different years, 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22.
00:10:32.780 I want you to focus on 2022 all the way at the bottom, which is yellow.
00:10:36.880 You'll see the active listings in January goes down.
00:10:40.200 If it goes down, property value goes higher because there is less inventory for you to
00:10:45.380 buy a house.
00:10:45.920 For example, if I make an offer on a house here and I'm saying, I want to buy a house
00:10:49.240 that's close to this schooling because I want to send my kids to this private school and
00:10:52.560 my realtor says, there's only two houses in this market with a swimming pool.
00:10:56.100 I don't have a lot of options.
00:10:57.440 There's only two homes.
00:10:58.560 If there was 50, I can negotiate and say, if you don't give it to me at this price, I'll
00:11:02.380 go over there.
00:11:03.200 But if it's only two, they're going to get 50 offers because 50 people are fighting to
00:11:07.080 get that one house.
00:11:08.260 The seller's in charge.
00:11:09.760 But if listing was 50, the buyer is in charge.
00:11:13.280 Make sense?
00:11:13.680 So look at the numbers.
00:11:15.120 January to February, inventory goes down.
00:11:17.540 This is good for sellers.
00:11:19.120 February to March, pretty much unchanged.
00:11:21.260 Good for sellers.
00:11:22.340 March to April goes up a little bit better for buyers.
00:11:25.740 Look at April to May.
00:11:27.000 Goes up.
00:11:28.200 Look at May to June.
00:11:29.460 Goes up 18.7%.
00:11:32.800 Now that's only two months.
00:11:34.800 If this chart, the number to follow is this one.
00:11:37.400 It's very important.
00:11:38.480 If the active listing keeps going higher and higher and higher and builders have a bunch
00:11:45.940 of place that's not occupied, and that goes higher and higher and higher, and the amount
00:11:51.480 of mortgage applications goes lower and lower and lower, you don't need to be a genius
00:11:56.900 to know.
00:11:57.880 You have to drop the value of your house to sell it.
00:12:01.020 It's just what's going to happen.
00:12:02.020 That's pure basic economy, supply and demand.
00:12:04.780 This is why one of the most important data to look at is active listing that tells a story.
00:12:10.780 So that real estate value, obviously, in the last two years has gone up.
00:12:13.320 Not 10%, not 15%, not 20%.
00:12:15.500 It's gone up 40.4%.
00:12:18.080 Some areas, even more than 40.4%.
00:12:20.820 But across the board, 40.4%, which is great.
00:12:23.640 It's gone up, so people are making money.
00:12:25.540 If you own a house, you build a lot of equity for yourself.
00:12:27.860 But here's the challenge.
00:12:29.040 If that's going up, what else has gone up?
00:12:31.060 Construction's gone up.
00:12:31.980 Steel's gone up.
00:12:32.920 Material's gone up.
00:12:33.720 Energy's gone up.
00:12:34.940 Furniture's gone up.
00:12:35.760 Concrete's gone up.
00:12:36.780 Transportation's gone up.
00:12:37.800 Softwood, lumber's gone up.
00:12:39.220 Price of freight has gone up 26%.
00:12:41.460 Price of deep sea transportation freight is up 35%.
00:12:46.780 So that's all good for the economy.
00:12:48.960 But what happens now when inventory goes up and people are no longer buying at the pace
00:12:53.560 that they were?
00:12:54.460 What's going to happen to that 40.4%? 0.99
00:12:56.640 Could it go back down to zero?
00:12:58.020 If it goes back down 40%, it's what?
00:13:00.180 It's what it was worth two years ago.
00:13:01.680 So that's pretty realistic.
00:13:03.220 But what if it goes down 60%?
00:13:05.140 What else takes a hit?
00:13:06.480 Steel, furniture, construction.
00:13:08.840 All of those industries also take a hit.
00:13:11.740 This is why it's all intertwined.
00:13:14.420 But let me continue.
00:13:15.440 Remember at the beginning when we talked about the fact that less disposable income leads
00:13:20.020 to less spending, lower business profits, layoffs, unemployment, foreclosure, bankruptcies,
00:13:23.840 divorce, crime, drugs, OD, alcohol, protest, riots.
00:13:26.800 Okay.
00:13:27.320 What does this lead to?
00:13:28.860 Layoffs.
00:13:30.040 There's layoffs everywhere.
00:13:31.420 Compass.
00:13:32.420 Who, they, I love Compass.
00:13:34.100 I've done business with Compass for many, many years.
00:13:35.940 They're great.
00:13:37.180 Compass is letting go 10% of their sales.
00:13:38.900 Compass is like the, you know, the high-end community realtors.
00:13:42.680 If you work at Compass, it's very prestigious.
00:13:44.700 They're letting go of 10%.
00:13:46.020 Okay.
00:13:46.760 Redfin announced they're laying off a ton of people.
00:13:48.840 Chase, they're laying off just 1,000 loan officers.
00:13:53.260 And then you're seeing layoffs in all these other industries.
00:13:55.980 But this is what Freddie Mac's deputy chief economist, Len Kiefer, said last week, tweeted
00:14:01.420 about this.
00:14:02.440 He said, the U.S. housing market is at the beginning stages of the most significant contraction
00:14:08.300 in activity since 2006.
00:14:10.420 By the way, keep in mind, he doesn't get paid to do this.
00:14:13.400 He's in the industry.
00:14:14.340 So Freddie Mac knows something about this because they've been through this before, but they're
00:14:18.180 also saying it's going to be worse than 2006, which the last one I'm going to share with
00:14:22.120 you on this topic is foreclosures.
00:14:23.960 Why foreclosures this early?
00:14:25.460 Aren't foreclosures are supposed to happen six months from now, maybe next year?
00:14:29.180 What would you say is the increase in percentage of foreclosures that we have in 2022 compared
00:14:36.600 to last year, same time?
00:14:38.960 What do you think the increase is?
00:14:40.820 20% more foreclosures?
00:14:42.700 40% more foreclosures?
00:14:44.660 60% more foreclosures?
00:14:46.960 It's not going to be 100%, right?
00:14:49.060 You ready?
00:14:50.180 We have 700% more foreclosures this year, same time than we did last year.
00:14:54.920 Let me say that one more time.
00:14:55.720 700%, 23,204 foreclosures, according to the database management company, ATTOM, Data Solutions.
00:15:05.920 That's 700%, and it's just getting started, okay?
00:15:10.360 These are the kind of things, when you watch Big Short, did you notice how cocky and arrogant 0.54
00:15:14.360 everybody was?
00:15:15.240 Lehman's going out of business? 1.00
00:15:16.360 You're crazy. 0.63
00:15:17.380 WAMU going out, and it never happened to WAMU. 1.00
00:15:19.360 Oh, it's a 300, with AIG, Merrill Lynch, Countrywide, New Century, you're out of your mind.
00:15:26.040 That'll never happen. 0.99
00:15:27.220 And then everybody said, holy shit, it's happening. 0.98
00:15:30.100 So I'm not telling you it's going to happen. 0.88
00:15:32.180 All I'm telling you is history says, if it repeats itself, it's happening, except it may
00:15:38.160 be uglier because we printed way more money.
00:15:41.380 Now, this next data, simulators of 2008 versus today.
00:15:45.440 In 2008, okay, the average worker, say he made $80,000 a year, whatever the number is,
00:15:51.800 the house prices at the time were eight times the average worker's earnings.
00:15:56.920 So eight times 80 is what?
00:15:58.520 $640,000, right?
00:16:00.340 You know what the number is today?
00:16:01.980 Eight and a half times.
00:16:03.760 So if in 2008 was eight times, the average American's like, I can't afford to buy that
00:16:08.940 big of a house.
00:16:09.460 What are you talking about?
00:16:10.340 It's eight times my income.
00:16:12.420 It's crazy.
00:16:13.780 Don't worry.
00:16:14.440 It's eight and a half today, okay?
00:16:16.560 Which means it's worse than what it was in 2008, which means what?
00:16:20.940 It's got to come back down to around three or four times, which is the number, okay?
00:16:26.160 It's either income's going to go up, which it ain't going to go up because there's layoffs,
00:16:29.820 or it's the price of real estate's going to come down.
00:16:31.520 So again, if you're watching fear porn like Dave Ramsey says, I'm giving you stats.
00:16:36.820 Go chop these data up and say it's a bunch of crack or whatever, but give your argument.
00:16:41.420 This is data telling you eight and a half times today versus what it was in 2008.
00:16:47.000 So everything we talked about so far is real estate related, right?
00:16:49.300 It's all tied to real estate.
00:16:50.280 But what about crypto?
00:16:51.600 All these people that became crypto millionaires, 80,000 wiped out.
00:16:55.080 80,000 crypto millionaires wiped out.
00:16:57.240 What do you think they were buying?
00:16:58.420 Nice homes, nice cars, nice watches.
00:17:00.960 Wiped out.
00:17:02.180 Luxury watches.
00:17:03.040 Exotic Rolexes, Patek Felipe, they were taking a massive hit.
00:17:07.080 Exotic cars taking a massive hit.
00:17:08.900 All the tech stocks, NASDAQ is down.
00:17:11.220 S&P is down 19% for the year.
00:17:12.860 NASDAQ is down 28% for the year.
00:17:14.660 It doesn't matter what you look at.
00:17:16.220 Everything's taking a hit and everything's intertwined.
00:17:18.800 So when you're looking at this data and you're asking yourself, how bad can it be?
00:17:23.520 Michael Burry from The Big Short said the following.
00:17:27.160 He said, as I said about 2008, it is like watching a plane crash.
00:17:30.760 It hurts.
00:17:31.420 It's not fun and I'm not smiling.
00:17:33.600 He also predicted that the next crash will dwarf the 2008 bust, which sparked a global
00:17:39.100 financial crisis.
00:17:40.700 Okay, so now that you've put your logical hat on and you've got a lot of data, let's
00:17:43.820 take that off.
00:17:44.320 Put the emotional hat on because we've got to now move.
00:17:46.320 You've got to move.
00:17:46.880 You've got to take some action.
00:17:48.000 We'll give you the PDF here in a second, but stick around.
00:17:50.400 There's a few things I want you to be thinking about.
00:17:51.940 Number one, I said this back in 2009, 2010, when I had a lot of money in the bank.
00:17:56.540 I spent cash and Denver posted an article on me saying, why are you living in a house
00:18:00.200 and you're renting?
00:18:01.500 I said, why should I buy a house?
00:18:03.000 Well, isn't that the American dream?
00:18:04.380 I said, absolutely not.
00:18:05.920 American dream is not home ownership.
00:18:07.780 American dream is equity in businesses, entrepreneurship, side hustles, being part of a startup, getting
00:18:15.480 a piece of that company.
00:18:16.420 That company goes sales.
00:18:17.960 It goes public.
00:18:19.200 That's the American dream.
00:18:20.720 Then you make the money there and then you can buy a house if you choose to.
00:18:24.080 The stress has been so much about the American dream.
00:18:26.780 We have to shift.
00:18:27.540 So a lot of people are looking at renting.
00:18:28.920 And by the way, the plus minus for renting right now, it's $850 more makes sense to rent
00:18:34.500 than it is to buy.
00:18:35.220 It's more expensive to buy today than it is to rent, to own to rent.
00:18:38.380 So that's one part.
00:18:38.980 Now, again, if you're in real estate, you're not going to like what I'm talking about,
00:18:42.080 but I've been straight up with you since the day I started Value Team.
00:18:44.240 So that's number one.
00:18:44.860 Number two, side hustle. 0.98
00:18:45.900 If you're making a million now, you're making 200, you got to do something on the side.
00:18:48.620 If you're making 200, you're making 50 now, you got to do something on the side.
00:18:52.200 If you're fully unemployed, you don't have a job, go learn new skill set and get a side
00:18:56.120 hustle for yourself.
00:18:57.300 There's never been more important than now to do that.
00:18:59.760 Collaboration, find the right partnerships, save money today.
00:19:03.960 Get some cash.
00:19:05.840 Things are going to be discounted even more.
00:19:08.620 My prediction, I may be wrong, but I'm telling you what I'm doing.
00:19:12.660 Things are going to be discounted even more, I believe, the next 6, 12, 18 months.
00:19:15.880 Don't try to time it perfectly.
00:19:17.440 You just want to be able to get it as low as possible, even though you're not going
00:19:20.260 to hit the...
00:19:21.120 To get things you purchase at the rock bottom, very few people get that lucky.
00:19:26.380 But even if you get a 20% of rock bottom or 10% above rock bottom, you're going to be
00:19:30.400 fine.
00:19:30.960 Things are going to be discounted over the next 6, 12, 18 months.
00:19:35.120 Just an hour before I shot this video, I got a tweet from a guy that's a value-tainer
00:19:38.860 sending me pictures of a bunch of watches that are, you know, million for watch or Rafael Nadal.
00:19:44.820 He's selling this next one here for $132,000.
00:19:48.900 This next one is $68,000.
00:19:50.720 He's sending me all this stuff with watches.
00:19:52.400 All of these guys are going to be discounted 50 more percent the next 6 to 12 months because
00:19:56.780 people are not going to have a choice.
00:19:57.700 They need cash.
00:19:58.760 And last but not least, as painful as it is, it's time to recreate yourself and start
00:20:03.060 kind of doing your own research.
00:20:04.520 Don't wait for me to do it.
00:20:05.540 Go study for yourself.
00:20:06.940 I did a Zoom with a bunch of CEOs yesterday.
00:20:08.860 83 of them were on, CEOs that are part of our consulting firm.
00:20:12.500 You know what every one of them I taught?
00:20:15.080 I went 15 minutes showing them how to research anything within their industry.
00:20:20.160 I said, here's how you research.
00:20:21.660 Go spend an entire day, not an hour, not 30 minutes winging it.
00:20:26.120 Spend an entire day away from everybody.
00:20:28.920 Research the history of your industry to learn what kind of right pivots to make.
00:20:33.380 So now having said that, I owe you this PDF.
00:20:35.000 If you want this PDF, click over here to get the entire thing, all the notes, all the links,
00:20:38.660 everything we talked about, and if you never got a chance to watch the Market Crash video,
00:20:42.580 somebody shared this video with you because you're in real estate, you may want to watch
00:20:45.620 the Market Crash video as well.
00:20:46.960 Click on that link here to watch that.
00:20:48.820 Have a great day, everybody.
00:20:49.860 Take care.
00:20:50.460 Future looks bright.