Valuetainment - “Benefits Of Being UNPREDICTABLE” - Hormuz Blockade SPARKS Trump’s BLAST On NATO

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00:00:30.000 NATO allies refused to join Trump on the Iranians' port blockade.

00:00:35.860 Now, this is big news because at first it was like, it's Spain.

00:00:40.140 Well, you know, the Spain president, he's a socialist.

00:00:42.760 Even he says his family, progressive.

00:00:45.280 So, hey, I want to make you work with America, but you guys can't come and land over here.

00:00:48.700 And he says, look, we don't need you.

00:00:49.940 We're going to do it by ourselves or not.

00:00:51.600 Then it was Starmer.

00:00:52.620 I don't want to be a part of this.

00:00:53.860 Now it's the whole NATO allies refused to join Trump's Iranian port blockade, according to Reuters.

00:01:00.000 Allies said on Monday they would not get involved in U.S. President Trump's plan to blockade Iranian ports,

00:01:05.320 proposing to intervene only once fighting ends in a move likely to anger Trump and increase strains in the alliance.

00:01:12.080 Trump said the U.S. military would eliminate any Iranian ships that came near the blockade that began on Monday after the weekend talks

00:01:18.660 failed to reach an agreement to end the six-week conflict with Iran.

00:01:23.040 Trump initially said the U.S. would work with other countries to block ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz,

00:01:28.320 But the U.S. military later specified that the blockade would only apply to ships going to or from Iranian ports.

00:01:34.400 Since the war started February 28th, Iran has largely blocked the waterway for all ships, but its own.

00:01:40.720 It has been seeking to make its control of state permanent and possibly collect levies from ships that use of the blockade will begin shortly.

00:01:49.220 Other countries will be involved with the blockade, Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday.

00:01:53.760 But NATO allies, including Britain and France, have said they would not be drawn into the conflict.

00:01:58.320 So he did say they will.

00:02:00.120 They're not so far.

00:02:01.360 Tom, what do we know about this?

00:02:02.340 Especially now that crude oil is at, what, 91.37.

00:02:04.860 The market's reacting somewhat positively.

00:02:07.540 S&P at 7,000.

00:02:09.320 So Wall Street, like you said earlier, is doing good.

00:02:12.040 Main Street's maybe taking a hit.

00:02:13.780 But walk us through what you think is going on here with the blockade.

00:02:15.980 So there's a lot of gamesmanship going on in the world.

00:02:20.380 So right now, Britain and France have a problem, and I dove into this. 1.00

00:02:24.900 Macron and Starmer have large Muslim populations. 1.00

00:02:28.320 you know, 8%, 10%, 12%, 15%. That's a population you have to deal with, and they are a very loud 1.00

00:02:34.460 population. And so publicly they're saying, we will not join the blockade. Well, what does that

00:02:39.980 mean? I will not put my ships next to your ships, so I won't join the blockade. But what was

00:02:44.860 interesting, Britain and France through NATO said, we are working on an initiative to open the

00:02:50.740 strait. Pat, that's what they said. You know what that initiative is? Negotiating behind the scenes

00:02:55.980 with the united states so we won't join the blockade like put our boats out there and they

00:03:00.860 say that for the headlines in their own countries but behind the scenes they are working with us

00:03:06.540 trying to negotiate and find a way out of it and it's because they have to speak out of both sides

00:03:11.540 of their mouth because of their and what that is doing is that's upsetting trump because if you're

00:03:15.600 not with me you're against me tremendously upsetting him and it's also kind of undermining

00:03:20.720 the historical importance of NATO.

00:03:22.980 I mean, looking back and asking, hey, do we still need this?

00:03:26.240 This was created at a time where we had a Cold War.

00:03:29.480 We thought there was a bunch of missiles pointing at us, pointing back.

00:03:33.100 Reagan put Pershing missiles in Germany, which caused the Russians to flip out. 0.56

00:03:37.140 But that was all part of the NATO chess game.

00:03:39.280 And a lot of people are asking, you know, what does NATO do and what are they necessary for?

00:03:45.300 And Trump is playing that card in the middle of it.

00:03:48.100 Okay, you're not with me.

00:03:49.000 You're against me.

00:03:49.620 boom maybe i'll leave nato but make no mistake britain and france are have a two-faced uh thing

00:03:56.320 going on here public and private land where do you stand with this uh so i think a lot of it is

00:04:01.140 symbolic and it's obviously political in the sense that no one really doubts the u.s navy can do this

00:04:05.500 blockade indefinitely if they want to there's no world where u.s navy has trouble stopping chips

00:04:10.440 from going through obviously the u.s navy is limited in terms of getting the straight open

00:04:13.680 because of all the asymmetric asymmetric aspects to it but actually blocking it is fairly simple

00:04:18.560 for the U.S. Navy to do. So trying to get NATO involved is more of that symbolic coalition effort

00:04:23.200 rather than because the U.S. actually needs their ships in any material way. And so their refusal

00:04:27.340 doesn't, of course, impair the U.S.'s ability to keep the strait closed, but it does signal,

00:04:32.300 like Tom mentioned, all the domestic political aspects they're dealing with. And it does

00:04:36.000 ongoing kind of show the weakening of NATO over time, which is relevant in it. You know,

00:04:41.080 it's increasing multipolar world. And, you know, we have fractures in our own backyard,

00:04:45.500 let alone the world conflict.

00:04:47.320 Rob, can you run a poll?

00:04:48.700 And I want the poll to be what's more likely to happen.

00:04:52.480 U.S. leaves NATO.

00:04:54.800 NATO supports U.S. versus Iran and versus neither.

00:04:58.600 Okay, just run that same poll on the podcast.

00:05:01.800 Let's see what happens with it.

00:05:02.980 Here's J.D. Vance when he's talking to Brett Baer.

00:05:05.920 And Brett Baer is asking a question to see where he stands

00:05:08.020 because we remember J.D. Vance was a non-interventionist.

00:05:11.920 It's kind of like why are they sending him to negotiate?

00:05:14.100 you know is it is it intentional because if you send rubio you know where rubio stands rubio and

00:05:19.720 wick off we know what they've been doing that's right so do you send jd to kind of get him to be

00:05:23.700 a bot in and say i didn't know these people are this extreme so here's what jd had to say to uh

00:05:28.800 brett berry yesterday as soon as it can um it's being reported that you had real skepticism about

00:05:36.180 this at the beginning uh and that you expressed that to the president is that true well brett you

00:05:42.320 YOU KNOW, I GIVE MY ADVICE TO

00:05:44.320 THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED

00:05:45.660 STATES, AND WE ALL DO, AND I

00:05:47.320 EXPECT THAT WHEN I GIVE ADVICE

00:05:49.320 TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED

00:05:50.320 STATES, THAT IT'S GOING TO BE

00:05:52.320 PRIVATE, BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT

00:05:54.320 SHOULD RELY ON HIS SENIOR

00:05:55.320 ADVISORS WITHOUT THEM THEN

00:05:56.320 RUNNING TO THE MEDIA.

00:05:57.320 WHAT I WILL SAY, BRETT, IS I

00:05:59.320 100% AGREE WITH THE PRESIDENT

00:06:00.320 ON THE FACT THAT IRAN CAN'T HAVE

00:06:02.320 A NUCLEAR WEAPON.

00:06:03.320 I'VE SEEN THAT JUST IN THE

00:06:05.320 NEGOTIATION THAT WE'VE HAD OVER

00:06:07.320 THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THAT

00:06:09.320 THESE ARE TOUGH NEGOTIATORS, BUT

00:06:11.320 WEAPONS, I THINK THE PRESIDENT

00:06:13.220 IS A NUCLEAR WEAPON WOULD IMPOSE 0.78

00:06:15.340 TERRIBLE COSTS ON THE ENTIRE

00:06:16.820 WORLD.

00:06:17.340 IF THEY ARE WILLING TO ENGAGE IN

00:06:19.940 ECONOMIC TERRORISM ON THE ENTIRE

00:06:21.400 WORLD, WHAT WOULD IT MEAN, WHAT

00:06:23.340 LEVERAGE WOULD THEY HAVE IF THEY

00:06:25.320 HAD A NUCLEAR BOMB IN TEHRAN? 0.77

00:06:27.320 THAT IS NOT AN OUTCOME THAT IS 0.72

00:06:29.320 ACCEPTABLE TO US OR REALLY SHOULD

00:06:31.320 BE ACCEPTABLE TO ANYBODY.

00:06:32.320 SO I 100% SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT'S

00:06:34.320 GOALS HERE TO KEEP NUCLEAR WEAPONS,

00:06:36.320 TO KEEP THE WORST WEAPONS OF WAR 0.94

00:06:38.320 OUT OF THE HANDS OF THE IRANIANS. 1.00

00:06:40.320 Yeah, I mean, he's saying the right things. 0.99

00:06:42.420 And can I hit NATO real quick, though?

00:06:43.980 Yeah, of course.

00:06:44.380 I mean, have we all lost sight of the fact that UK and France 0.66

00:06:48.200 wouldn't be a country if it wasn't for America?

00:06:50.480 And, I mean, with NATO, what's a positive thing that NATO has done

00:06:55.940 or a positive impact NATO's had in the last 30 years?

00:06:59.000 I mean, nobody remembers that Russia wanted to be part of NATO,

00:07:02.320 and Bill Clinton rejected that.

00:07:03.800 Bill Clinton didn't reject that.

00:07:05.100 No, Bill Clinton said no problem.

00:07:08.860 he called somebody and then he called back and said not now so wasn't he rejected i don't know

00:07:16.940 if i put that on bill clinton bill clinton was a gamer that he wanted to do it somebody he called

00:07:21.080 yeah said no and a lot of people speculate who it is but we don't know who that was that's a good

00:07:24.780 point and i mean the defense contractors led the committee to expand nato so i mean the way i always

00:07:29.600 see nato is that we needed something to throw money at after the cold war ended right because

00:07:32.880 we just throw all the military money at nato and like the audacity of these guys we have we give

00:07:37.760 them all these weapons we have all of our military troops in their bases there and like the whole

00:07:41.960 point is to deter russia from aggression but i would say that our expansion of nato is what

00:07:46.580 encouraged russia to go into ukraine so now i think we should pull out of nato asap especially

00:07:51.360 you think we should pull out 100 what's a positive thing that nato's done i mean they did a hell of a

00:07:55.080 job at bosnia hergo zivina didn't they wow they got in there stop that not that was nato's backyard

00:08:02.080 so but if you're saying that that means you're agreeing with them that we should leave nato

00:08:06.080 I'm not saying we should leave NATO, but I'm saying you asked the question, what have they done in the last –

00:08:10.480 Right.

00:08:10.800 And I'm not –

00:08:11.320 He asked the question.

00:08:12.220 I'm just wondering –

00:08:12.920 I'm making the point, yeah, they've done a terrible job.

00:08:15.920 Right. 0.96

00:08:16.140 They let that go on in Bosnia until what?

00:08:18.340 Until I think it was Clinton finally agreed to drop tomahawks on enemy positions to see if they could break the back of the rebel general that was committing the genocide in the fields.

00:08:28.500 What do you think?

00:08:29.800 Well, my focus is on finance and tech more than geopolitics.

00:08:32.940 I don't really have a firm opinion on that topic

00:08:35.780 other than I think that years ago

00:08:37.580 it made sense to pressure NATO

00:08:38.880 to put at least 2% of their GDP into the military

00:08:41.420 basically meeting all their ends of the bargain

00:08:43.100 because for a long time obviously the US

00:08:45.140 is like the bulk of NATO

00:08:46.420 so the rest of NATO is kind of that longer tail

00:08:49.080 of other support compared to the US

00:08:50.500 which is almost all of it

00:08:51.480 at this point there's obvious fractures

00:08:54.220 I wouldn't necessarily support going out of it

00:08:57.180 because it's kind of a temporary decision

00:08:59.560 that can have permanent ramifications

00:09:00.720 But I'm certainly no expert on, you know, maybe think maybe think about it from the economic side, because you watch how the market reacts to certain things.

00:09:08.900 Right. How how would the market react if all of a sudden say things are not going the right way?

00:09:14.580 Say the Thursday negotiation gets nasty and behind closed doors, the president's not happy with the way NATO's supporting him.

00:09:21.520 Hypothetically, he announces because, you know, he's capable of announcing anything.

00:09:25.000 He announces we're out. How do you think the market reacts?

00:09:27.820 My guess would be more muted than one might think.

00:09:30.300 I mean, I think, you know, the market could have a sell-off that day.

00:09:32.720 I don't think it would be particularly catastrophic because when the market says,

00:09:35.800 okay, what does this mean over the next, let alone weeks, what does this mean over years?

00:09:40.060 Are we worried about any of those NATO members getting attacked more than they might otherwise,

00:09:43.720 especially if the rest of NATO stays intact?

00:09:45.700 So some of the smaller members are still defended by some of the bigger members.

00:09:48.520 You know, multiple of them are nuclear powers.

00:09:52.220 So I don't think anyone would seriously worry about the safety of NATO countries

00:09:56.860 just because the U.S. was out in any sort of multi-year time frame.

00:09:59.720 Obviously, that has long-term implications for deterioration between the U.S. and Europe in particular.

00:10:05.580 But probably the market would just look through that, kind of like how it's been surprisingly resilient

00:10:09.420 looking through all the current energy shortages.

00:10:11.620 Yeah, it's interesting you're saying that because I don't know if you guys saw that or not.

00:10:14.760 Zelensky the other day said in a press conference, he's been kind of quiet.

00:10:18.040 He says U.K. should come back into NATO.

00:10:20.440 I don't know if you saw that or not.

00:10:21.660 Tom, did you see that with Zelensky saying, hey, U.K. should come back and you should rejoin?

00:10:26.040 Is that it?

00:10:26.520 We don't want NATO and NATO.

00:10:27.940 I think the EU and NATO can partner on the military.

00:10:32.520 I don't know if this is it or not, but it was one of the ones where we're just asking for UK to come back in and rejoin NATO.

00:10:38.680 I mean, not rejoin NATO, EU.

00:10:40.300 My apologies.

00:10:41.160 It's EU, not NATO.

00:10:42.040 You know what he's looking for?

00:10:42.700 He's looking for a pocket.

00:10:43.880 Of course he is.

00:10:44.540 Yeah, of course he is with that taking place.

00:10:47.760 But, yeah, I don't know.

00:10:49.080 I wonder how likely it is that Trump is capable of using that card to say we're pulling out, Tom.

00:10:57.920 Give me a percentage.

00:10:59.060 Because right now the poll we ran, here's what the poll looks like.

00:11:02.060 3,000 votes, five minutes.

00:11:04.740 What's more likely to happen?

00:11:06.860 51% say the U.S. leaves NATO.

00:11:09.880 That's the listeners.

00:11:11.120 And we have some – our listeners are business owners.

00:11:13.120 These are people that run businesses, are watching the market to see what's going on.

00:11:19.640 51% thinks U.S. leaves NATO.

00:11:22.260 15% think NATO will support U.S. versus Iran.

00:11:25.640 34% say neither.

00:11:27.100 Tom, do you agree with them?

00:11:28.360 Yeah, I think it's 50-50 because look at what will happen.

00:11:31.200 We have bases in the Philippines.

00:11:33.400 We have bases in Japan.

00:11:35.320 We have bases everywhere.

00:11:37.300 We would still have bases in Germany.

00:11:38.980 You still have bases in the U.K. on the south coast of U.K. where we launch all the B-1 bombers from.

00:11:46.040 All of that we would still have.

00:11:47.920 So we would have regional defense alliances.

00:11:50.840 So you leave NATO as a group at the middle, Pat, but we would still have all those bases and all of our military presence over there.

00:11:58.700 And if something happened in Germany, we're going to be there to back them up.

00:12:02.480 So I think it's 50-50 to leave NATO, but it would not change our deployment of resources in each country.

00:12:07.900 the same way we've got resources deployed all around the world.

00:12:11.520 You know what, it would change?

00:12:12.320 It would change the fact that none of those countries have invested in their militaries in a big way since NATO got put in place.

00:12:18.680 Because, like, they've all been hollowed out.

00:12:20.900 They just rely on us that we'll have their back if they ever needed us.

00:12:23.680 So, you know, they've gotten fat and happy and casual, and they would immediately stop that, I think, if we pulled out of it.

00:12:28.860 Because, I mean, and, you know, we don't have to pull out of it, but that's our leverage.

00:12:32.760 You know, if we want them to do something, we have all the means at our disposal to encourage them to do it.

00:12:37.800 The benefit, this is the benefit of having an unpredictable leader that's also predictable.

00:12:43.660 That's the benefit of it.

00:12:44.960 He keeps everybody on their toes, and they don't know what's going to be happening.

00:12:47.460 By the way, a couple of clips, Rob, if you want to play it. 0.68

00:12:49.480 One of them is the clip where the president says he won't let Iran blackmail and extort the world by shutting down the strait. 0.60

00:12:57.560 If you can play this clip. 0.99

00:12:59.280 We can't let a country blackmail or extort the world because that's what they're doing.

00:13:06.660 They're really blackmailing the world. We're not going to let that happen.

00:13:10.040 And, you know, the amazing thing is we don't, can you believe this?

00:13:14.240 We don't use this trade. We don't need this trade.

00:13:16.080 We have our own oil and gas, much more than we need.

00:13:19.160 We have more oil and gas than Saudi Arabia.

00:13:22.100 Think of this. We produce more.

00:13:24.080 Saudi Arabia and add Russia to it, substantially more.

00:13:28.360 And by next year, we'll have double that amount.

00:13:31.200 So we don't need it, but the world needs it.

00:13:33.840 And many ships are heading to our country right now, as we speak, to load up with the

00:13:39.600 best, really, I guess you could say, somebody said the best and sweetest.

00:13:44.460 I don't know exactly what sweet is, but when it relates to oil, it's a good thing.

00:13:49.100 But they're coming to our country right now.

00:13:51.480 There are many boats coming to our country.

00:13:52.900 Now, it could very well be this is going to be settled before that.

00:13:56.420 Now, you can pause this right here, Rob. 0.76

00:13:57.600 Go to the clip about what this is costing Iran on a daily basis and how long they can

00:14:02.800 afford for this to happen, whether it's water, you know, the revenue coming in. This right here

00:14:07.700 is a phenomenal clip by Jesse. Go ahead, Rob. Iranian oil blockade is probably the knockout

00:14:13.020 punch. The Iranians are trying to outlast us. The longer the war goes on, the longer their regime 1.00

00:14:18.980 can hold off a revolution. But their economy is experiencing a crippling depression. This

00:14:25.040 blockade is costing the regime almost $400 million a day. That's $13 billion a month.

00:14:32.420 Plus, the Iranians can only store oil for about two weeks

00:14:35.380 before they have to start shutting off wells. 1.00

00:14:38.280 The Iranians can't outlast us. 1.00

00:14:40.420 The world's turning to us for energy. 0.94

00:14:42.840 Over 120 empty oil tankers are on their way to the Gulf of America.

00:14:48.300 Many ships are heading to our country right now.

00:14:51.500 If you want to go a little bit further out to see when Jesse comes back,

00:14:55.560 let him keep going.

00:14:57.060 Okay, keep playing it. Keep playing it with Jesse.

00:14:58.860 The oil and petrochemical industries have been wiped out. Without oil revenue, all they can sell are pistachios to Pakistanis. It could get worse. The president's still weighing limited airstrikes, saying a number of additional targets are very easy to hit. The Iranians are losing their cards here. And Vance, who just spent 20 hours negotiating with them, says that we're in the driver's seat. 1.00

00:15:20.880 Tom

00:15:21.940 Economically speaking we're in the driver's seat

00:15:25.600 But only if it's a rational 0.87

00:15:27.500 Iran leader negotiating 0.93

00:15:29.780 On the other side

00:15:30.560 When you have irrational leaders that just want to wait you out

00:15:33.720 Then anything

00:15:35.480 That you would do for them

00:15:37.240 I mean look at the rebuilding of Japan

00:15:39.300 After World War II

00:15:40.060 Look at the rebuilding of South Vietnam

00:15:42.140 And look at all that happened 1.00

00:15:43.880 You don't want these guys to be rebuilding

00:15:46.060 You know the weaponry

00:15:48.380 And what they do

00:15:49.860 And so, yeah, it's hitting them and it's hitting them hard. And yes, you've got this. And yes, drill, baby, drill and the renewed relationship with Venezuela and all that Venezuela oil coming out and benefiting the people of Venezuela, hopefully more and more next year than this year.

00:16:07.980 that's all good you know but i i look at it yeah it is are they going to break are they going to

00:16:13.720 negotiate are they going to give up the nuclear option and so a rational player would but you

00:16:19.200 have to remember these are irrational players that would allow their own people they'd allow

00:16:24.660 90 of their own people to die before they give up the card because it's a theocratic it's a

00:16:30.940 suicidal theocracy that believes in that endgame. And so in that way, they're not a rational actor.

00:16:38.940 So, Lynn, I'll give you this last thoughts on here. And I know it's more you're more economy

00:16:43.720 than some like this. But have you thought about what would be an ideal situation where the market's

00:16:48.660 going to sit there and Trump comes out the winner? What could happen where Trump comes out the winner

00:16:53.380 in this issue with Iran? I can certainly see an agreement like years ago where Iran agrees to

00:16:59.660 kind of defer any sort of nuclear program it has observers in in exchange for letting off the

00:17:04.500 attacks and things like that that's kind of the a possibility here there's also just i mean they

00:17:09.140 can declare themselves a winner the u.s can declare themselves a winner and kind of back out

00:17:12.640 and you know see how the optics go i think you know with that clip we saw there's some

00:17:17.800 simplification of talking points because even though the u.s does produce a lot of oil and gas

00:17:22.360 it's not as though we have just a bunch of spare capacity sitting around we we export a lot we

00:17:27.380 import a lot not all oil is the same because it has to be matched at certain types of refineries

00:17:31.700 uh and so we i mean we've seen pretty clearly obviously gasoline prices and other energy

00:17:35.500 prices have spiked here in the u.s just like many other parts of the world we're not you know we're

00:17:39.400 not the most vulnerable in the world that's mostly going to be the uh the the poor per capita

00:17:43.640 development developing countries that have to import a lot and are now being outbid by all

00:17:47.500 the wealthy nations in the east and and elsewhere um but we are impacted and you know right now

00:17:52.640 there's obviously iran's on a clock i mean they you know they've hyperinflated not for the first

00:17:56.960 time. They've got severe economic issues. They've got all sorts of issues. You know, but as Tom

00:18:02.700 pointed out, they're ideological more so than they're pragmatic. The U.S. is also on a less

00:18:08.140 severe ticking clock. But I mean, just politically speaking, there's the midterms coming up right

00:18:12.100 now. Consumer sentiment is a record low, lower than 2008, lower than the peak of COVID, lower

00:18:17.300 than the late 70s. Those were kind of all other low points. We hit new lows. And that's partially

00:18:21.540 because, I mean, gasoline prices at the pump are up. And then even things we don't see directly,

00:18:25.520 all the transportation costs and you mentioned seven dollar dorito bags crazy that part of that

00:18:30.340 i mean going forward all all these things that have to move around the country that's impacted

00:18:33.720 by transportation costs five dollar diesel yeah exactly uh and so the u.s consumer is being

00:18:39.200 squeezed uh and then that of course has you know the polls are already shifting pretty greatly

00:18:43.600 toward the midterms uh so i think that the trump administration has an incentive to try to get this

00:18:48.020 wrapped up sooner rather than later uh and then it's it's a force of wills between obviously

00:18:52.300 You know, the average Iranian is a lot more impacted than the average American here, but they are a very resilient ideological type regime there.

00:19:00.680 Way more than Venezuela.

00:19:01.980 There's no question about it. 0.95

Valuetainment - April 15, 2026

“Benefits Of Being UNPREDICTABLE” - Hormuz Blockade SPARKS Trump’s BLAST On NATO

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