Valuetainment - “Break Down Of The Monetary System” – Ray Dalio FEARS Trump Tariff War May SPARK Global MELTDOWN

00:00:00.000 Ray Dalio says, I'm worried about something worse than a recession.

00:00:03.240 Okay, Rob, if you want to play this clip, and then we'll go to Jamie right afterwards.

00:00:06.020 Here's Ray Dalio.

00:00:07.160 I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession.

00:00:14.840 And I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well.

00:00:20.560 A recession is two negative quarters of GDP, and whether it goes slightly there, we always

00:00:26.020 have those things.

00:00:27.480 We have something that's much more profound.

00:00:30.380 We have a breaking down of the monetary order.

00:00:33.740 We are going to change the monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money,

00:00:38.760 so we have that problem.

00:00:40.000 And when we talk about the dollar and we talk about tariffs, we have that.

00:00:44.040 We are having profound changes in our domestic order, how ruling is existing.

00:00:50.620 And we're having profound changes in the world order.

00:00:54.060 Such times are very much like the 1930s.

00:00:56.760 I've studied history, and this repeats over and over again.

00:01:00.400 So if you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging the

00:01:05.840 existing power, if you take those factors and look at the factors, those changes in the

00:01:12.640 orders, the systems, are very, very disruptive.

00:01:16.160 How that's handled.

00:01:17.620 So that's Ray Dalio.

00:01:18.760 So he's saying something worse than a recession, which is what?

00:01:21.600 Depression, right?

00:01:22.820 Okay, so this is Jamie Dimon.

00:01:24.660 Jamie Dimon is taking a different position.

00:01:26.560 He's on Fox Business.

00:01:27.480 Go ahead, Rob.

00:01:28.880 My final question for you.

00:01:30.360 After all of these incredible years of success and leadership in this great nation and the

00:01:36.780 world, what tips do you want to give the younger generation who is coming up and watching you

00:01:42.680 and wanting to learn how you achieved all of this?

00:01:45.680 Give us some advice.

00:01:47.200 So work hard.

00:01:49.520 Learn, learn, learn.

00:01:50.200 Read everybody.

00:01:51.460 Don't get into the ecosystem of Democrats, Republicans.

00:01:54.560 He gets to the recession clip in this clip, but it's very brief.

00:01:59.320 Okay, go ahead.

00:02:00.520 Conservative, progressive.

00:02:01.920 Read everybody.

00:02:03.080 Learn, learn, learn.

00:02:03.640 Get to know, learn from everybody else.

00:02:05.440 You know, I learned a tremendous amount from talking to other people, not just from sitting

00:02:08.400 by myself.

00:02:09.780 So educate yourself.

00:02:11.080 When is it going to be a recession?

00:02:11.800 Learn how to take care of yourself.

00:02:12.900 Come on, Jay.

00:02:13.220 If you don't take care of your mind, your body, your spirit, your soul, your friends,

00:02:15.880 your family, you're not going to have a great life.

00:02:18.320 And enjoy it.

00:02:19.440 Enjoy it every step of the way.

00:02:20.760 And so have a little heart and humanity.

00:02:23.640 Treat people properly.

00:02:25.100 You know, I grew up, you know, the way you treat people is you treat everyone fair and

00:02:29.380 honest and forthright, whether it's a cab driver or a waiter or a CO.

00:02:34.580 He does.

00:02:35.160 You know, it's just there's something about this guy that feels like he's always trying

00:02:42.440 to say the right thing at the right time, you know, and always trying to seem like he's

00:02:46.100 on the right side of whatever it is.

00:02:47.720 And I feel like, you know, I covered the 2008 TARP and TALF stuff for ABC News, okay?

00:02:54.880 And I had worked in mezzanine finance before I got into this, and they didn't have a business

00:02:58.260 correspondent at the time.

00:02:59.600 And that guy was always saying what he needed to say for himself in that moment.

00:03:05.780 But he always wanted to make it like he was there for the little guy and for the people. 1.00

00:03:09.420 And that's, and I think he's full of shit, that guy. 0.99

00:03:12.000 But there's something about him that really, like, I don't trust that he's coming from 0.99

00:03:17.540 a good place, this guy, when he says things.

00:03:19.220 Not that he's not smart.

00:03:20.260 Not that he doesn't get it.

00:03:21.500 He just, he's too convenient with what he says.

00:03:24.600 It makes me think that he's not anchored by anything.

00:03:26.860 I actually think he's brilliant.

00:03:28.400 I think he's the smartest man on Wall Street.

00:03:30.400 I also think he hedges everything with, we're headed to a recession.

00:03:35.400 He's been saying we're headed to a recession for the past 20 years.

00:03:38.360 Yeah, and he's going to be right at some point.

00:03:41.280 Right, but as the market goes up and JP Morgan's stock goes up and Jamie Dimon looks smarter

00:03:47.620 and smarter, if it does turn negative, he looks like he called a recession.

00:03:52.760 But I, yeah, but he is very, very smart.

00:03:55.700 But even this, bringing our trading partners closer as we build our military.

00:03:59.600 You just check in boxes.

00:04:01.520 Yes, of course you want your trading partners close.

00:04:03.620 Churchill had a great reminder for FDR during World War II when FDR was vacillating.

00:04:09.000 The only thing worse than fighting against your friends is fighting without them.

00:04:12.620 That's what we're risking right now is going alone.

00:04:15.180 And when we're, as a coalition with all these other countries, we're much more formidable,

00:04:19.000 even if we are very strong in our own right.

00:04:21.880 And I don't like two things that are coming our way right now.

00:04:25.100 One, oh, turns out we have to spend a lot more money on military to compete with China.

00:04:30.120 No thanks.

00:04:31.040 We did that with the Cold War.

00:04:33.800 It doesn't work.

00:04:34.880 We don't need to do that.

00:04:35.820 And the other thing we're going to hear is, you're right about all these concerns about

00:04:38.960 the domestic market.

00:04:40.060 We need those tax cuts right now.

00:04:42.400 I don't want to see another tax cut for me.

00:04:44.260 That's not going to help the same people who are going to get hit by these tariffs if they're

00:04:47.080 in place.

00:04:47.680 And I feel like both of them are coming.

00:04:49.000 See, now I would say we would agree on tariffs and we'll disagree on tax.

00:04:53.920 That would be the one way to energize the U.S. economy is allowing us to keep more of 0.85

00:04:59.000 our money.

00:04:59.440 It's always been a great driver of spending and saving.

00:05:05.280 I think making them permanent.

00:05:06.400 Yeah, but just target it right.

00:05:07.920 Target it right.

00:05:08.800 You called it a middle class tax cut and they didn't get the money.

00:05:11.220 Chris, I don't think there's a bad target to reduce a tax, whether it's corporate tax

00:05:14.820 or individual personal income tax, lower level, high level, middle class, lower taxes, you

00:05:20.380 create economic activity.

00:05:22.280 That's fine.

00:05:22.640 As long as you cut the spending.

00:05:24.260 Not like he did it last time, Eric.

00:05:25.660 The way he did it last time was screwed up.

00:05:27.560 And they just kept saying they paid for themselves.

00:05:29.540 And the only way you can get to that, as you know, is if you include the pandemic money.

00:05:34.340 And you want to cut taxes, fine.

00:05:35.900 Cut spending.

00:05:36.800 I agree with that.

00:05:37.280 Cut spending and go to the DOD and cut spending.

00:05:39.500 We do not need to build up to compete with China.

00:05:42.240 They're not our problem that way.

00:05:43.940 It's not like we're going to get a land war in Asia.

00:05:45.920 It's not the Princess Bride.

00:05:46.460 If you can become fully, listen, oil is the lifeblood of the global economy, period.

00:05:51.380 Whoever has it does the best.

00:05:52.960 So drill, drill, drill, drill.

00:05:54.000 Knock yourself out.

00:05:54.620 So drill, baby drill, lower taxes, and you don't have to worry about paying more in your

00:05:59.680 tariffs when you send stuff to China than they send it this way.

00:06:02.860 Cut spending.

00:06:03.300 The best year of my life is the year I pay the most freaking taxes, okay?

00:06:07.380 Because I made a lot of money.

00:06:08.700 Right.

00:06:08.800 And my point is, if we are so strong, so powerful, our economy's pumping at $30, $40 trillion a

00:06:15.320 year GDP, okay, so China's doing 42.

00:06:19.060 We have a fifth of their population.

00:06:21.640 It's all good.

00:06:23.040 It's not bad.

00:06:24.320 Lower our taxes, lower our fuel prices, and we will compete on a global stage for the rest of

00:06:29.260 our lives.

00:06:29.460 But we're missing a piece.

00:06:30.360 We're missing the most important piece.

00:06:31.720 One of the things I love about Pat and what he's doing here is the culture that's an extension

00:06:38.560 of family, okay?

00:06:39.620 You go see Pat with his kids.

00:06:41.940 You know, one, he's present, right?

00:06:44.420 And his wife, obviously.

00:06:46.200 They take education very seriously.

00:06:48.340 Those kids have to nail it. 1.00

00:06:49.900 They have to be STEM sensitive.

00:06:51.420 Yeah, you got to be able to kick the ball and be a good team player.

00:06:54.720 That's what China did. 0.92

00:06:56.100 China invested.

00:06:57.020 They are five to one STEM graduates over us, okay, per capita, five to one.

00:07:03.960 We're leaving that piece out, okay?

00:07:05.920 You want those jobs.

00:07:06.880 Who's going to do those jobs? 0.95

00:07:08.680 We're not STEM activated here in our education.

00:07:12.660 See, Trump's trying to fix that.

00:07:14.000 Well, is he?

00:07:14.720 Get rid of the Department of Education.

00:07:16.320 How does that help? 0.96

00:07:16.780 Kill the unions, and all of a sudden, things get better. 0.99

00:07:19.940 Look, I think a lot. 0.82

00:07:21.160 How do you know that?

00:07:22.200 That that's what's going to make it better?

00:07:23.540 Well, that's the theory.

00:07:24.720 I mean, the theory is free them up, just like the free market.

00:07:27.580 Free up education.

00:07:28.960 Allow parents to take the money that the public school system is wasting on students

00:07:35.120 and failing miserably at, and let them choose where the best schools are and where the best teachers are.

00:07:39.120 I think you have to do what we don't want to do, which is what other cultures do, 1.00

00:07:42.900 which is you have to pick winners and losers.

00:07:44.780 You have to test kids at different points as they're coming up and figure out who has the aptitude,

00:07:49.560 and then put them on different courses like you see in other places.

00:07:52.760 And you pay for their education.

00:07:55.120 If you're that smart, Vinny, you're that good, I'll pay for your education.

00:07:58.880 And you're going to give it back to me with what you do.

00:08:01.180 We'll figure it out.

00:08:02.740 We are not doing that in this country right now.

00:08:04.840 We are a culture of accommodation right now.

00:08:07.180 Everything's okay.

00:08:08.460 Everything's okay.

00:08:09.220 You be you.

00:08:10.300 And it's as big a part as anything we've talked about in the podcast up to this point as to what our concerns are with China.

00:08:16.480 You misgendered me. 0.84

00:08:17.260 I'm not you.

00:08:17.840 I'm they, them.

00:08:18.640 So this is correct.

00:08:19.260 I thought you were macho macho.

00:08:21.880 You're making the case to eliminate teachers' unions, Department of Education.

00:08:27.120 No, I'm not.

00:08:27.660 I think that that's.

00:08:28.240 You literally just said that.

00:08:29.300 No, I didn't.

00:08:30.080 Based on meritocracy rather than a union mandate.

00:08:34.740 Collective bargaining matters.

00:08:36.500 You know, you go back to the Gilded Age and you see how workers were doing and what the die rate was and child labor.

00:08:41.580 Beyond the Gilded Age, Chris.

00:08:42.180 Unions have a place.

00:08:43.160 No one's dying in factories anymore.

00:08:44.020 The president says that's what we should go back to.

00:08:45.900 No, it's a new golden era.

00:08:47.640 It's not the Gilded.

00:08:48.240 The golden era was after World War II. 0.99

00:08:50.280 The Gilded Age, which is fake gold, right?

00:08:52.820 That's the one that he points to.

00:08:54.520 Look, collective bargaining to me, I think, is a virtue.

00:08:57.140 Can it go too far?

00:08:58.000 Do you have to regulate it the right way?

00:08:59.400 Of course.

00:09:00.300 But what I'm saying is I don't care about what the mechanism is.

00:09:02.880 I'm talking about the goal.

00:09:04.600 You don't have enough smart people with the right kinds of educations in this country.

00:09:08.720 That's all I'm saying.

00:09:09.340 You don't even have enough trade workers in this country.

00:09:12.000 We agree.

00:09:12.300 And we need to foster that is where we disagree.

00:09:14.940 A hundred percent.

00:09:15.840 I don't necessarily disagree.

00:09:17.180 I'm open to it.

00:09:18.080 I think the best idea should win.

00:09:19.700 I don't know what they are.

00:09:20.820 I ask questions for a reason.

00:09:22.820 You know what I mean?

00:09:23.300 Tom, chances of a recession.

00:09:26.320 Well, a recession by definition, two quarters.

00:09:32.000 I'm only at like 10, 20 percent.

00:09:34.720 But you have to remember what a recession is.

00:09:36.420 A recession is the consumer spending drops.

00:09:41.680 GDP drops two quarters because people aren't spending.

00:09:44.680 Why are they spending?

00:09:45.520 Because their sentiment went down.

00:09:46.740 Why are their sentiment dead now?

00:09:47.720 Because everybody's telling them it's bad.

00:09:49.060 Why is everybody telling them it's bad?

00:09:50.480 Because they don't give enough time for these tactics to be come to fruition to get to the

00:09:55.100 other side of where we're going to do.

00:09:56.820 You know, a recession doesn't mean that the auto industry has been nuked.

00:10:00.600 It just means that all the spending was down for two quarters.

00:10:04.940 Now, I think there's a 20 percent chance that that could happen.

00:10:08.040 That's what I think.

00:10:08.880 But I'll tell you, I'm with Eric on the tax thing.

00:10:12.560 Right now, we're about to cross, if we haven't crossed already, 1.3 trillion on consumer credit

00:10:18.700 card debt.

00:10:19.280 Records that are being set that the consumer shouldn't be setting.

00:10:22.140 You know what I'm talking about.

00:10:23.280 And so, and we have the cumulative effect of inflation.

00:10:26.720 So a tax cut on those people helps moderate that.

00:10:30.600 And so, and I think that helps them.

00:10:32.300 And I also agree with drill, baby drill, because I would, I would go after Anwar and I would 1.00

00:10:39.380 pump the hell out of Anwar and I would be selling it to people that own our T-bills and I'd 1.00

00:10:43.840 be taking down our long-term debt.

00:10:45.820 And guess what happens?

00:10:47.040 You do that.

00:10:47.840 You would now, you go watch what happens.

00:10:49.300 But right now, I think there's a 20 percent chance of a recession by definition, not by the

00:10:54.080 redefinition they did under Biden, where they ignored the fact and worked around the

00:10:59.100 fact.

00:10:59.340 Well, they took out food and energy to conveniently remove the two most volatile and spiking portions.

00:11:05.660 Yeah, that's exactly.

00:11:06.380 Without my wife and I, the average age, we have a very young, healthy household.

00:11:10.300 Right, right, right.

00:11:11.260 Yeah.

00:11:11.600 A lot of you have been asking about the Cigar Lounge that you want to come to it.

00:11:15.280 And we've been having back to back to back.

00:11:17.260 This last Friday was the biggest event we ever had at the Cigar Lounge, which was fantastic.

00:11:21.920 However, grand opening is this Thursday night.

00:11:25.140 This Thursday night.

00:11:26.340 And this is what we're doing.

00:11:27.240 Thursday, we're not doing a podcast in the morning.

00:11:29.960 Thursday, we're doing a live podcast at our comedy club, at Cigar Lounge, 59.90 live.

00:11:35.480 Tickets are being sold.

00:11:36.380 It'll be myself, Vinny, Tom, and Adam.

00:11:38.960 Live audience.

00:11:40.120 Come on down. 0.94

00:11:40.960 Bar opens at 6.

00:11:42.000 If you get there at 6 p.m., you buy tickets.

00:11:44.800 No matter whether you buy the regular ticket, the general, the premium, or VIP, if you get

00:11:49.400 the ticket and you're there early, we're going to give private tours of the Cigar Lounge and

00:11:52.880 then bring you back in the room.

00:11:54.300 And the podcast will start at 7 p.m.

00:11:56.260 It's going to be a skeptic.

00:11:57.160 I mean, it's going to be, if you've been to it before, it's a spectacle.

00:12:00.100 It's incredible.

00:12:00.900 The energy, the vibe, the announcements, different things that we do on a lot of people networking

00:12:04.540 together.

00:12:05.420 But that's the QR code.

00:12:07.060 The website, Rob, if we can give them the website so some of the folks on Spotify can go to it

00:12:10.780 as well.

00:12:11.120 I believe it's BoardroomCigarLounge.com.

00:12:16.440 BoardroomCigarLounge.com.

00:12:17.640 Go a little bit lower so it gives the details.

00:12:20.220 You'll get the tickets.

00:12:21.160 So go lower, Rob, lower, lower for the tickets.

00:12:23.020 There's general premium VIP, $100, $250, $500.

00:12:26.500 VIP, you get a chance to actually go afterwards to the Cigar Lounge and we'll be with you guys.

00:12:30.600 And we're doing it Thursday instead of Friday because Friday is Good Friday.

00:12:33.300 So Thursday, we'll celebrate it together.

00:12:35.120 Come on down. 0.94

00:12:35.700 Bring a friend.

00:12:37.080 Network.

00:12:37.660 Join the rest of us.

00:12:38.780 We'll have a good time.

00:12:39.380 If you've been to it before, typically the people that have been to it before, they know

00:12:42.900 VIPs sell out immediately.

00:12:44.400 This year, we have fewer VIPs because platinum members get first on those seats.

00:12:49.860 So if you want to have a VIP seat, hurry up and place your order and we'll see you guys

00:12:53.020 Thursday night.

00:12:53.480 If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this, click here.

00:12:56.320 And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.

Valuetainment - April 15, 2025

“Break Down Of The Monetary System” – Ray Dalio FEARS Trump Tariff War May SPARK Global MELTDOWN

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