Valuetainment - “China Has 21 Days” - Strait Of Hormuz Crisis THREATENS China’s Oil Lifeline

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00:00:06.220 Friday, March 6th to Wednesday, March 11th.

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00:00:13.220 Investing is all about the future.

00:00:15.300 So what do you think is going to happen?

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00:00:43.100 With everything that's taking place right now with Iran, Rob, I believe if I'm not mistaken, 1.00

00:00:52.000 it is an interview that's taking place.

00:00:53.680 Oh, by the way, this is the gas poll that you ran.

00:00:55.360 Okay, let's talk about the poll first.

00:00:56.560 How much have gas prices in the area increased?

00:00:59.180 Can you go back to it, please?

00:01:00.980 None, 20%.

00:01:02.360 So that's a fifth.

00:01:03.980 25 to 50 cents, 49%.

00:01:06.500 50 cents to 75 cents, 18%.

00:01:10.180 75 cents plus 13%, which is one out of six.

00:01:14.660 So that, Rob, how much was gas prices for you when you filled it up this morning?

00:01:18.400 It's around 350 in my area, but that's up from last weekend.

00:01:22.540 Last Friday, it was about 270.

00:01:25.380 From 270 to 350.

00:01:27.980 Yep.

00:01:28.400 With gas prices.

00:01:29.560 What is crude oil price right now, Tom?

00:01:31.540 What is it looking like right now?

00:01:32.620 I think West Texas Intermediate opened this morning at 72.

00:01:35.820 Will you do that?

00:01:36.440 Just WTI price? 1.00

00:01:39.340 Oh.

00:01:40.380 87?

00:01:41.220 Up six bucks today.

00:01:43.340 And Tom, what's the ideal price for oil?

00:01:44.860 By the way, did you just hear Tom's reaction?

00:01:47.480 Six bucks.

00:01:47.880 No, no.

00:01:48.240 Did you?

00:01:48.840 Tom meant to say 82, not 72.

00:01:51.640 Okay?

00:01:52.120 Yes.

00:01:52.300 Right, Tom?

00:01:52.820 Is that okay?

00:01:53.680 Fair to say?

00:01:54.620 So Tom meant to say 82, and it's 87.

00:01:58.040 Okay?

00:01:58.640 It's 87.

00:01:59.560 Going up.

00:02:00.140 Going up.

00:02:00.780 Six bucks today.

00:02:01.240 So, Tom, if this is six bucks today, and you're seeing, let's talk purely brass tacks,

00:02:07.500 how the individual is going to be impacted by this, whether you're like Adam, you don't

00:02:11.320 drive and you take Ubers, or if you're somebody that drives and you pay for gas, if it's going

00:02:16.500 to 87, how quickly is the speed of the market feeling the pain of gas prices?

00:02:21.940 Well, the Straits of Hormuz are there.

00:02:23.140 So, every time there's a shortage, and a shortage creates prices to go up.

00:02:26.840 Also, when demand goes up, and right now there's more demand for the U.S. oil because

00:02:32.080 we're pumping and it's available.

00:02:33.800 We've increased the output for Venezuela over the past four weeks, 2x from when we took

00:02:39.100 out Maduro.

00:02:39.800 Yeah.

00:02:39.940 So, 2x oil is coming out of Venezuela.

00:02:42.700 Remember, they would sneak the oil out.

00:02:44.540 It was like embargo oil.

00:02:45.780 Now, it's open oil.

00:02:46.840 The pipes are open from the valley, and that's 2x.

00:02:49.840 So, we're pumping and we have it available, but there's demand for it because the Straits

00:02:53.620 of Hormuz have closed.

00:02:55.020 Take a look at that.

00:02:56.000 That chart is the Iraq war.

00:02:58.640 Take a look at that.

00:02:59.320 See the first jump there?

00:03:01.460 Yeah, is the Iran war.

00:03:03.460 So, click on, if you would.

00:03:05.320 Can we go five years?

00:03:06.460 Five days?

00:03:07.000 Just five days.

00:03:07.660 Five days.

00:03:08.200 All you need to do it.

00:03:08.900 Okay, there you go.

00:03:09.680 The war starts, and Pat, take a look at that.

00:03:13.140 It gently goes up, and now look what happens on March 5th.

00:03:16.960 The war escalates.

00:03:18.060 See there?

00:03:18.960 March 5th, the war escalates.

00:03:20.920 Yeah.

00:03:21.060 So, it was hanging tough until the war started escalating, and now the Straits of Hormuz have

00:03:26.880 been closed for a couple days, and that's putting pressure, you know, on China.

00:03:31.040 So, this is demand related.

00:03:33.020 The U.S. is fine.

00:03:34.080 We have plenty.

00:03:34.740 We're not going to have shortages at the pump.

00:03:36.280 But the demand for what we're pumping is up.

00:03:39.340 So, guess what?

00:03:40.100 The price goes up.

00:03:41.100 And Rob, do you mind going to five years or even go to max?

00:03:44.740 Tom, correct me if I'm wrong.

00:03:46.740 They want to keep the oil, bear of oil, around 70 bucks.

00:03:50.060 Is that sort of-

00:03:50.660 65.

00:03:50.680 Plus, above 65.

00:03:52.300 Yes, that's correct.

00:03:53.200 65 in the U.S., you make a profit, and you can afford to extract shale.

00:03:57.440 Okay.

00:03:57.800 So, if you look at this, and Pat, you're the numbers guy, it basically fell below market

00:04:04.320 average in 2020.

00:04:06.020 Nobody was moving, right?

00:04:07.580 It went down to almost 20 bucks a barrel.

00:04:09.260 They couldn't even get it away.

00:04:10.660 But historically, if you're looking, if you want to go back 10 years when Trump took office,

00:04:15.840 oil was around 40 bucks.

00:04:17.560 Is that right?

00:04:18.320 Yep.

00:04:19.640 I remember that.

00:04:20.220 2016, yeah.

00:04:20.540 And that was also the Saudi market manipulation, trying to keep the price low to hurt Alberta

00:04:26.980 oil sands and North Dakota shale, because those are alternative drills that were working.

00:04:32.140 And then, Tom, walk me through this.

00:04:33.460 2022, it spikes under Biden because we weren't pumping as much oil.

00:04:38.000 How does this affect America?

00:04:39.340 What happened in the middle of 2022?

00:04:41.240 We slowly opened after COVID, but what had Biden done trying to keep the price down?

00:04:46.500 He emptied the SPR, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

00:04:49.740 And so suddenly, the demand shoots way up.

00:04:53.100 So that's Biden's, by the way, that's also Biden inflation, and just poor executive management

00:04:58.980 from the Department of Energy.

00:05:00.060 That didn't have to happen after COVID.

00:05:01.760 So, Tom, walk me through this.

00:05:03.060 Even though there's been a major spike in the last five days with the Iran war, it pales

00:05:08.740 in comparison to what happened a few years ago, right?

00:05:11.000 The spike is that little tiny thing at the end.

00:05:13.260 You can put the...

00:05:14.300 You see, since Trump was elected, what's been happening?

00:05:17.480 A gentle slide back to...

00:05:18.940 So he gets elected.

00:05:19.660 Go to November.

00:05:21.600 November 24.

00:05:23.400 There you go.

00:05:23.940 Keep going.

00:05:24.340 See?

00:05:25.320 Yeah.

00:05:26.020 So the guy we should be asking is Vinny, who's got a massive truck.

00:05:29.320 Oh, let me explain something to you.

00:05:30.300 People that are like, hey, come to Miami.

00:05:31.720 I'm not coming to Miami.

00:05:32.640 I'm not hanging out with you at all.

00:05:33.600 What do you mean people?

00:05:34.500 You mean me.

00:05:35.400 By the way, just so you know, here's what you need to know.

00:05:37.540 This is well-managed.

00:05:38.400 This Friday, but when did war start?

00:05:41.200 It's been what now?

00:05:41.940 Today's six days.

00:05:43.180 Last Friday, it was around $67, $70 to now being at where it's at.

00:05:48.300 So you're talking, you know, $17 to $20 up, which is direct impact.

00:05:53.120 People are feeling it.

00:05:54.440 And how much of that's going to translate here?

00:05:56.120 Trump's going to have to control this.

00:05:57.740 But if straight of Hormuz, if nothing's leaving there, and China's sitting around knowing 80% of their oil, 0.76

00:06:03.940 they're relying there.

00:06:04.780 However, Tom, how much longer can China sit around without coming out and saying, 0.90

00:06:10.900 hey, we kind of need to protect ourselves with Iran because the oil we're relying on? 0.60

00:06:15.140 How long can they go?

00:06:16.160 China's going to need oil in 21 days.

00:06:19.000 I was reading that 21 days, they will start to feel it.

00:06:22.080 It won't be catastrophic.

00:06:23.200 But within 21 days, they're really going to start to feel it.

00:06:25.780 So I'd like to know this.

00:06:28.500 Iran is closing the Strait of Hormuz.

00:06:31.520 If we control the skies, which we do.

00:06:33.440 I was just going to say.

00:06:34.160 And we have basically impacted a tremendous amount of their navy.

00:06:38.920 What exactly is keeping the Strait of Hormuz?

00:06:41.160 Because that's where China's going to get their oil. 0.73

00:06:43.760 Or are we, on the backside, willing to say, okay, I'm sorry, the Strait's closed.

00:06:49.140 Because that's going to put pressure on China. 0.90

00:06:51.600 Yeah, if you look at this chart that Rob just pulled up,

00:06:53.660 Iran and Venezuela export most of their crude oil to China.

00:06:58.400 Share of Iran and Venezuela's crude oil export that go to China.

00:07:01.160 Look at that.

00:07:01.580 87% of Iran and 55% of Venezuela.

00:07:07.760 Bingo.

00:07:08.180 And if you control both of them now, and China no longer has control of Panama Canal because of what happened with Panama.

00:07:16.540 C.K. Hutchinson.

00:07:17.300 Oh, yeah, Panama's Supreme Court.

00:07:19.140 Panama's Supreme Court comes out and says, no, we're not doing it.

00:07:21.720 Listen, you don't have any more authority over this.

00:07:23.860 These two ports are ours.

00:07:25.480 If you think these guys, when they say they're playing, you know, chess and they're grandmasters, if you think that.

00:07:32.060 You lock in Panama Canal first.

00:07:33.860 So China can't play that as a weapon. 0.56

00:07:36.060 You lock in Venezuela next.

00:07:37.740 Then you go after Iran. 0.85

00:07:39.140 Now China's sitting around saying, well, how can we create pain for U.S.?

00:07:44.140 How can we create pain for U.S. to do anything? 0.97

00:07:47.500 Strategically, it's actually very interesting when you think about the sequencing of what's been done.

00:07:53.100 Well, we're coming into summer.

00:07:54.440 Maybe they could embargo the knockoff Callaway drivers.

00:07:58.540 Yeah.

00:07:59.460 Well.

00:08:00.100 That'd be catastrophic for guys like you.

00:08:02.060 Calistrophic.

00:08:02.680 Yeah.

00:08:03.180 Tom, can I speculate on something?

00:08:04.800 Yeah, go for it.

00:08:05.480 So, oil.

00:08:08.640 Trump's been saying he's going to do two things.

00:08:11.160 You know, we talk about the 20-point plan that he was going to do.

00:08:13.500 Yep.

00:08:14.740 At the top of the list, he was going to shut down the border, and he's going to drill baby drill.

00:08:19.520 Did he not say those two things?

00:08:20.680 Yes.

00:08:21.160 What if this were all a part of Trump's plan?

00:08:25.440 Shut down the border, drill baby drill.

00:08:28.020 Let's go through here.

00:08:29.420 We just learned that China, which is our number one combatant. 1.00

00:08:33.640 You want to say that?

00:08:34.300 They're our enemy.

00:08:35.540 They get what percentage of their oil from Venezuela and Iran?

00:08:38.760 The vast majority of it.

00:08:40.940 Drill baby drill. 1.00

00:08:42.780 Taking down China. 0.88

00:08:44.420 Now, let's pan out a little bit.

00:08:46.680 A year ago, when Syria was about to fall, Syria, Bashar al-Assad calls his boys,

00:08:55.080 Vladimir, what's up, man?

00:08:56.300 Eh, Nietzsche, can't help you.

00:08:58.440 A buddy of mine did a great breakdown of this.

00:09:01.100 Can't help him, because he's embroiled in a war in Ukraine.

00:09:04.360 Bingo.

00:09:05.160 Hey, he calls up Iran.

00:09:06.900 Iran can't do anything, because they're fighting with Israel. 0.78

00:09:09.400 So, now, everything leads back to China.

00:09:12.440 So, Russia's embroiled in a war with Ukraine.

00:09:14.920 We're funding that.

00:09:16.860 Iran is tied up with Israel.

00:09:18.760 Israel's knocking out all their proxies.

00:09:20.540 Bing, bing, bing, bing, bing.

00:09:21.980 Syria falls. 0.71

00:09:23.180 Venezuela, when they fall, they say, hey, guys, who's going to come help us out here?

00:09:26.620 Nobody.

00:09:27.720 So, now, who's helping Iran?

00:09:29.080 Is China showing up?

00:09:30.520 No.

00:09:30.860 Is Russia showing up?

00:09:31.860 No.

00:09:32.420 So, could it be that Trump, when he said, drill, baby, drill, this was all part of his plan

00:09:37.840 to take out all these countries and basically say, China, what's up with the tariffs now,

00:09:43.860 buddy?

00:09:44.140 All your oil, all your power, all your energy.

00:09:47.040 You have a billion people that you need to keep the lights on, and you're going to be

00:09:50.800 major struggling when I take out all your allies.

00:09:53.760 So, could it be that Trump had this planned all along?

00:09:57.420 Could be.

00:09:58.600 If it is.

00:09:59.920 Yeah.

00:10:00.480 If this is exactly how they thought about this, what a master plan.

00:10:04.320 That's against the move.

00:10:05.620 What a master plan.

00:10:05.940 It's almost like he read your next five moves.

00:10:07.720 What did he call it?

00:10:08.480 He said Marco Rubio will end up being the greatest.

00:10:11.320 Secretary of State.

00:10:12.400 Of all time.

00:10:13.180 Oh, yeah.

00:10:13.480 Is what he said.

00:10:14.120 So, Tom, what are we looking at here with the China imports?

00:10:16.560 Well, thank you, Rob.

00:10:17.920 China imported 5 million barrels a day through the Strait of Hormuz last year. 0.99

00:10:25.420 Damn. 0.99

00:10:26.200 Yeah. 0.99

00:10:26.660 And it tells you from where.

00:10:27.680 1.2 from Iraq, 395 Kuwait, 106 Qatar, 666 UAE.

00:10:32.800 They should have done 667.

00:10:35.120 703 Oman, 1.5 million Saudi, and 1.4 million Iran.

00:10:38.640 Yeah.

00:10:38.880 And so, never mind the numbers.

00:10:41.320 Iran is only 1.4 of that.

00:10:43.340 But the highway's closed.

00:10:44.820 Exactly.

00:10:45.240 Gang, you guys heard.

00:10:47.440 I think there's a massive leadership taking place at the Trump Doral.

00:10:51.300 Trump even yesterday said, hey, go to Trump Doral.

00:10:54.020 Go to Trump Doral.

00:10:55.180 And guess what?

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00:11:11.440 Go ahead, Rob.

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00:12:27.880 Getting ready for a game means being ready for anything, like packing a spare stick.

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00:12:57.880 Thanks for listening.

00:12:58.780 Thank you.

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00:13:01.460 Thank you.

00:13:15.840 Thank you.

Valuetainment - March 06, 2026

“China Has 21 Days” - Strait Of Hormuz Crisis THREATENS China’s Oil Lifeline

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