Valuetainment - May 25, 2023


China's Catastrophic Mistake That Destroyed Their #1 Superpower Aspirations

Topics
migration
Hosted by
Patrick Bet-David
Mentioned
Andy Grove Probably Yao Ming Henry Kissinger Jackie Chan Statista Nixon Putin
Shocking Debt Ceiling History and The Danger of Defaulting The Rise and Fall of Hollywood

Episode Stats


Length

14 minutes

Words per minute

214.53

Word count

3,086

Sentence count

292

Harmful content

Misogyny

6

sentences flagged

Toxicity

4

sentences flagged

Hate speech

21

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

China's One Child Policy in 1979 changed the world. It changed the economic and political landscape of the country forever. Today, the population in China is aging, and they're running out of young people to replace their aging population.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 Andy Grove said, only the paranoid survive.
00:00:02.120 Have you ever made a decision in life where you did not see the benefits or the consequences
00:00:07.220 of it for a year, two years, three years?
00:00:08.960 Well, China as a country made a decision in 1979 that they're seeing the consequences
00:00:14.280 of it, and it's very, very painful.
00:00:17.520 We're going to talk about that today.
00:00:18.580 So if you get value from this video, give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel.
00:00:30.700 Let's get right into it.
00:00:31.480 So what is this one policy they came up with in 1979 that changed the game?
00:00:35.060 Before I show this to you, I want to explain a couple of things.
00:00:37.520 Number one, if I ask you right now, what is the fastest growing social media platform in
00:00:43.400 America and the world?
00:00:44.620 And I told you, which former behemoth social media platform is getting slower and people
00:00:50.840 are no longer joining it, what would you say?
00:00:52.660 You probably said the first one is TikTok, right?
00:00:55.560 And you probably said Facebook.
00:00:57.280 Matter of fact, if I were to ask you right now, how often do you log onto Facebook?
00:01:01.300 If you said every day, odds are you're about 40 years old.
00:01:05.160 If you said, I don't ever go on TikTok, odds are you're about 40 years old.
00:01:09.140 If you said, I'm on TikTok every day, you're probably between 18 to 34 years old.
00:01:13.500 Here's the numbers.
00:01:14.540 Matter of fact, according to Statista, average of population on TikTok versus Facebook ages
00:01:20.200 18 to 34.
00:01:22.200 Here's what it looks like.
00:01:23.800 For Facebook, 51.5% of Facebook's population is 18 to 34.
00:01:29.860 But for TikTok, ready?
00:01:31.500 71.3%.
00:01:33.280 Whoever gets the young population will continue to grow year over year over year. 0.99
00:01:38.880 Right now, TikTok has a young audience.
00:01:40.480 Facebook has an aging audience that's kind of going away.
00:01:42.700 So let's look at China.
00:01:44.160 1979 is when they came out with the one-child policy to control population growth.
00:01:48.100 And there's this one great chart that they show with data, where if you look at this chart,
00:01:53.320 it's been said a growing economy, a healthy country is one that looks like a triangle.
00:01:59.060 And one that's a dying population is one that is looking like an inverted pyramid.
00:02:04.820 So if you look at these three, here's what you'll notice.
00:02:06.900 The one furthest to the left is China in 1990.
00:02:09.140 So what does that mean, the blue and the pink?
00:02:11.460 The blue is male population. 0.82
00:02:13.280 The pink is female population. 0.98
00:02:14.960 And if you look at the chart to the left, it'll show you 0 to 4, 5 to 9 years old, 10
00:02:19.200 to 14 years old, 15 to 20.
00:02:21.020 You see the idea.
00:02:21.820 It's showing which one is the biggest.
00:02:23.860 And it looks like a healthy triangle.
00:02:25.100 Meaning, China at that point had more kids, younger population, and their aging population
00:02:29.920 was smaller.
00:02:30.600 Then you go to 2014, look what happens there.
00:02:33.280 Then you go to 2025 is what they're predicting, look what that looks like.
00:02:37.060 And then go to 2050, if they go the way they're going right now.
00:02:39.680 This is not good news for them.
00:02:40.880 They're no longer young.
00:02:42.160 They're getting older.
00:02:43.240 So what does this really mean?
00:02:44.460 Let's go into a little bit deeper to see why this is a big issue.
00:02:47.100 So why did they do this, Pat?
00:02:48.020 Why did they come up with this one-child policy?
00:02:49.780 Because in 1950, the population started getting so big that they didn't have enough food supply.
00:02:54.320 They said, listen, we've got to figure this thing out.
00:02:55.880 We are way too big.
00:02:56.980 We don't have enough food.
00:02:57.780 We got to do something about this brilliant idea, one-child policy. 0.99
00:03:01.620 At least at the point, they thought it was a good policy.
00:03:03.380 And then that's kind of what turned into what it is today.
00:03:05.260 So let's look at this chart when it comes down to life expectancy.
00:03:07.800 If you look at this, you got the blue at the top.
00:03:09.680 You got the green at the bottom.
00:03:11.080 If you look at the top left, it says life expectancy from birth, years.
00:03:15.460 If you look at the bottom left, that's the green.
00:03:17.820 That's annual percentage change.
00:03:19.360 So let's focus on the top.
00:03:20.640 In 1964, the life expectancy in China was roughly 46.7 years old.
00:03:26.080 So you lived at around 46 and a half, you died.
00:03:29.340 From 1964 to current, that went from 46.73 to today, it's 77 years old.
00:03:36.520 Their life expectancy increased 30 years.
00:03:40.380 Matter of fact, if we divide 30 by 46, their life expectancy grew by nearly 70% in a span of 30 years.
00:03:46.740 So now the country's sitting there saying, how the hell are we going to handle this?
00:03:49.500 Even in one year, life expectancy went up 5%.
00:03:52.100 This is a concern.
00:03:53.260 So how did China get here?
00:03:54.320 Well, in 1971, you know, the one thing that Nixon gets a lot of credit for is to opening up the relation with China with the help of Henry Kissinger.
00:04:01.080 So they're going out there.
00:04:01.880 Things are looking a little bit smooth.
00:04:03.100 What about if we do this?
00:04:03.880 What about if we do that?
00:04:04.600 All of a sudden, 1978, China says, after years of control, they finally implemented a major program of economic reform.
00:04:10.920 It encouraged private business, foreign trade, and investment, relaxed state control over prices, and invested in industrial production and the education of its workforce.
00:04:18.480 So what did this do?
00:04:19.600 They went from growing in 1978 at 6% of their economy to 9% according to Brookings Institute.
00:04:26.080 Well, when this happens, there's a big difference between 6% and 9%.
00:04:29.140 That's a 50% growth.
00:04:30.280 They got to start looking at some things there, right?
00:04:32.180 So if you look at historically what they did in 1990, December, Shanghai stock market reopens for the first time since 1949.
00:04:38.620 And then eventually, in the late 90s, early 2000, they joined WTO, World Trade Organization.
00:04:45.300 So now, everybody around the world wants to do business with China.
00:04:48.480 So let's look at Chinese's fertility rate. 0.94
00:04:50.420 What happened over the years?
00:04:51.420 Were they having a lot of kids before?
00:04:52.720 And how bad was it when they said only one child policy? 0.73
00:04:55.340 Can they really stop everybody in China from having sex? 0.98
00:04:59.040 Here's what it looks like.
00:05:00.000 In 1950, the average woman was having around 6 kids.
00:05:04.480 And it stayed at that number until about the late 60s.
00:05:07.480 Then it dropped off from 1970 at 6 all the way down to 3 in 1978.
00:05:13.220 And it gradually kept going down and down and down until it was around 1.5 from 1995 till today.
00:05:19.400 So you may be looking at this saying, so what, Pat?
00:05:21.040 People stopped having babies.
00:05:22.360 I mean, you know, they already have 1.5 billion people.
00:05:24.500 They had a billion people.
00:05:25.240 What's the big deal if people stopped having babies?
00:05:27.140 Well, this led to the four problem that they talk about.
00:05:29.960 What is that?
00:05:30.400 Each child now is responsible for taking care of two aging parents and four aging grandparents.
00:05:37.740 Culturally, that's what you got to do.
00:05:39.160 It's like, man, I don't have that kind of money.
00:05:40.580 How can I go out there and take care of all these guys?
00:05:42.340 On top of that, parents wanted to start having boys, not girls.
00:05:47.040 So gradually, because boys can help with the businesses, right? 0.99
00:05:50.300 That's kind of how they viewed it.
00:05:51.720 Gradually, when you think about population, for every one girl, there's one boy, right? 0.82
00:05:55.640 That's kind of what we're all.
00:05:56.500 So in China, it kept going higher and higher and higher, where there were years, where
00:06:00.740 it was 110 males for every 100 female, 10% higher, because they were leaning towards
00:06:06.480 that.
00:06:06.940 Well, that's a problem as well.
00:06:08.100 There's a lot of times you hear about, you'll read about that women are sitting there and 1.00
00:06:11.160 say, well, I want to pick and choose what man I want to be with, because there's more
00:06:13.980 men than women.
00:06:15.440 That's one of the challenges that they're seeing in China today.
00:06:18.420 So we get the idea.
00:06:19.300 Some people might say, well, Pat, give me a break.
00:06:20.920 I get what you're saying here.
00:06:21.760 Okay, fine, 110 per 100, fine.
00:06:24.600 Their workforce has gotten bigger year over year over year.
00:06:27.040 You're right up until 2014, 2015.
00:06:30.700 Here's what it looked like.
00:06:31.760 If you look at it from 2000, that's 739 million people working.
00:06:35.320 It kept going up, up, up to 760, to 770, to 780, all the way up to 800 in 2015.
00:06:43.500 And then what do they see?
00:06:44.580 Every year, it keeps going lower and lower and lower.
00:06:47.400 Why?
00:06:48.180 Because aging populations retiring.
00:06:50.120 They don't want to work anymore, and they're not having enough kids, so the younger population 1.00
00:06:53.440 is having to do double the work, because there's not enough of them to sustain and take care
00:06:56.960 of everybody.
00:06:57.620 This is a major issue.
00:06:58.660 So what happens when there's an aging population?
00:07:00.300 What do they need to think about it?
00:07:01.360 They need what?
00:07:01.880 Social security.
00:07:02.460 Someone's got to take care of retirement.
00:07:03.640 I didn't save any money.
00:07:04.560 How do I eat?
00:07:05.680 Health care.
00:07:06.180 I need to go see the doctor.
00:07:07.260 Things are no longer working the way they did.
00:07:08.740 My body's breaking down, right?
00:07:10.500 MedSup, MedAdvantage, you know, health care, prescription.
00:07:14.180 So that's expensive.
00:07:15.580 Who's going to pay for that?
00:07:16.660 Taxes?
00:07:16.980 So if you look at this, you may say, well, it could be okay if they're having more newborns,
00:07:22.680 zero to four, than people that are above 60.
00:07:25.420 So as long as that's bigger than the other, we should be okay.
00:07:27.840 Look at this chart here on what it's looking like, comparing newborns to four years old,
00:07:32.820 new kids being born, versus the population of 60 plus.
00:07:36.500 This is deeply concerning.
00:07:37.820 Take a look at this.
00:07:38.380 1950, if you look at that, till 1995.
00:07:43.100 Every year, they had a bigger population ages zero to four than they did 60 plus until around 1995.
00:07:48.900 Then look what happened to it.
00:07:50.060 By now, the elderly people in China, quarter of a billion people and climbing while the zero to four
00:07:59.020 is declining.
00:08:00.120 Who the hell is going to take care of these folks? 0.94
00:08:02.620 Who?
00:08:03.200 With what kind of money?
00:08:04.700 With what kind of wealth?
00:08:06.220 How are they going to handle this?
00:08:07.280 And by the way, they've been trying to keep this a secret for a while, because just in 2020,
00:08:11.480 China finally begrudgingly admitted that they overcounted their younger population by 100 million people.
00:08:20.140 100 million?
00:08:20.880 Then the world's like, wait a minute.
00:08:22.480 You're not as young as you told us you are.
00:08:24.720 You were not reporting these numbers right. 0.99
00:08:27.100 Damn, if this is the case, you're in trouble. 0.99
00:08:29.860 People are not starting to figure it out. 0.99
00:08:31.400 Pat, this is a lot of fear mongering, because look, if you really want to say that this has happened,
00:08:35.120 show us some of the health expenditure, because you can't tell us this is happening and their
00:08:38.240 health expenditure is not really going higher.
00:08:40.660 Here's a chart that's going to validate this.
00:08:42.580 From 2001 till today, look at this.
00:08:44.280 This is in billion won.
00:08:46.500 Eight trillion is what they had to spend last year.
00:08:49.540 Just 20 years ago, it was a little over half a trillion a year to now eight trillion and 20 years.
00:08:57.620 Let me unpack this for you.
00:08:59.540 This means it used to take you $75,000 a year of expenses to take care of yourself 20 years ago.
00:09:08.620 And you know what it is today?
00:09:10.180 Today, you have to do, I don't know, $1.2 million per year in 20 years.
00:09:16.660 How are you going to do that?
00:09:17.980 That's a lot of pressure in a nation that China is currently having to solve.
00:09:22.840 That's a big problem they have as well.
00:09:24.160 So now you may say, well, Pat, pick on somebody your own side.
00:09:26.520 You know, China, you're comparing it to smaller countries.
00:09:28.900 Why don't you compare China with somebody its own side, such as India?
00:09:31.420 No problem.
00:09:32.480 So China used to be the biggest population in the world.
00:09:35.260 India just passed them up just recently.
00:09:36.820 This is not like happened 20 years ago.
00:09:38.960 This is recent.
00:09:39.600 The last year or so passed them up.
00:09:41.020 But when you look at China's population above 65 years old, China has 166 million people above 65.
00:09:47.520 You know what India has above 65 years old? 1.00
00:09:49.380 Only 84 million.
00:09:50.940 Okay, that's what India's got. 0.99
00:09:52.100 And India's young. 0.89
00:09:53.300 Their average age, I believe, is around 26 to 28 years old.
00:09:55.900 The average age of the population in China is around 38.4 years old.
00:09:59.480 That's a big number right there.
00:10:01.120 So yes, even if we pick on somebody their own size, India's young, China's old. 1.00
00:10:06.880 There's a reason why these guys cannot stand each other.
00:10:09.380 And India just blocked over 100 apps from China.
00:10:12.620 China, if there is a country they may hate, as much as they hate America, and they keep it to themselves,
00:10:19.420 and they don't publicly advertise, well, sometimes they do publicly advertise it,
00:10:22.260 they hate India, because they fear India.
00:10:25.380 Because India is young, and they're getting old. 1.00
00:10:27.600 So what happens to us when we're getting old?
00:10:29.320 As we get older, we don't spend as much money as we did when we were younger.
00:10:31.940 Younger, we want to kind of buy and impress people.
00:10:33.720 You get older, you're going to say, I'm not really too worried about it.
00:10:35.780 So what's the problem with this?
00:10:37.100 Well, today, household consumption accounts for around 37 to 38% in China.
00:10:43.820 Okay, this is according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China,
00:10:47.040 which means they're having to rely on outsiders to buy their stuff, like America and other countries.
00:10:53.040 And this 37, 38% number that I just gave used to be 68% in 1980.
00:10:58.320 They relied on themselves.
00:10:59.460 They can't do that anymore.
00:11:00.900 Now they need you and I.
00:11:01.940 Now they need other countries.
00:11:03.060 So that is problematic for a country like China,
00:11:05.860 because if other people don't buy their customers, they're going to take a massive hit.
00:11:10.140 Like, well, listen, look at America.
00:11:11.540 We got 40 million immigrants.
00:11:12.840 At least America's got all these immigrants coming. 1.00
00:11:14.520 I'm sure China's been crushing with immigration. 0.98
00:11:16.200 Who wouldn't want to go to China?
00:11:17.360 See all these big buildings?
00:11:18.900 See all these things they're doing?
00:11:20.060 They got to be crushing it with migration, right? 1.00
00:11:22.100 What if I told you, since 1950 till today,
00:11:25.660 China's net migration rate has been in the negative.
00:11:29.540 They've never been in the positive.
00:11:31.240 The only thing is people want to escape that place.
00:11:33.260 No one's trying to go to China.
00:11:34.420 They're trying to leave China.
00:11:35.460 People trying to come to America. 1.00
00:11:36.680 Ain't nobody trying to leave America, at least not till today, right?
00:11:39.600 If it wasn't for migration in America, we would also be in the negative. 0.89
00:11:43.460 But we get other people, immigrants, that want to come here, like this guy. 0.91
00:11:46.660 Like some of you, maybe.
00:11:47.860 So these numbers, when you look at China's net migration rate versus U.S.,
00:11:51.920 we've always been in the positive since 1950.
00:11:54.340 And matter of fact, since 1970, we've been at 3% every year, as high as 6% at times.
00:11:59.680 Because everybody wants to take advantage of the American dream.
00:12:05.020 Millions want to do that every year.
00:12:07.060 Look, I don't have any more data.
00:12:08.040 I can pull a bunch of different things to show you, but it's like beating a dead horse
00:12:10.640 right now.
00:12:11.200 I think it's fair to say Xi is probably not going to like this post, this video.
00:12:13.920 We're not going to get a thumbs up.
00:12:14.820 Probably Yao Ming's not going to like.
00:12:15.920 Probably Jackie Chan's not going to like this video. 0.98
00:12:18.380 I think he's going to be probably upset about this.
00:12:19.980 So what's the point about this whole thing?
00:12:21.360 To have a population, a country grow, you need to average around 2.1 child per woman born,
00:12:27.100 right?
00:12:27.540 China right now is around 1.1.
00:12:29.400 We covered that part already.
00:12:30.640 But what does all this stuff really mean?
00:12:31.860 I mean, look, Xi stands there very confidently around everybody else.
00:12:35.460 He doesn't look like he's concerned.
00:12:36.640 He's brokering deals with Putin.
00:12:38.560 They look very confident talking about the next hundred years.
00:12:41.120 They're teaming up with Iran. 0.63
00:12:42.540 They're teaming up with Saudi.
00:12:44.020 They're teaming up with Russia.
00:12:45.380 They're teaming up with all these other guys.
00:12:46.940 And everybody around the country is saying, well, the new world order 2.0 is those guys.
00:12:51.880 Should we be worried about it?
00:12:53.160 The video started off with the first phrase I said was what?
00:12:56.060 Andy Grove, only the paranoid survive.
00:12:58.820 We have to stay paranoid all the time.
00:13:00.960 Because as things like this happen, if you get too cocky and say, don't worry about those
00:13:05.000 guys, they're not doing as good as they think they're doing, I understand.
00:13:08.700 But also at the same time, 75% of poker hands, the winner wasn't the best hand.
00:13:15.260 It's who could bluff the best.
00:13:18.160 And man, gee, dude, somebody send that man a bracelet.
00:13:22.740 Dude, you're crushing it.
00:13:24.180 They're going to have to deal with this issue.
00:13:25.840 This is not a good one.
00:13:27.060 And this is an issue that's going to take a couple of decades to fix.
00:13:29.540 You know, certain things in life, you're like, man, I put on 48 pounds.
00:13:32.020 You can get off of your sweets or coke or bread and you'll lose the weight eventually
00:13:36.200 three, six months.
00:13:37.100 You cannot lose this weight in three to six months.
00:13:39.360 You know how long this could take to fix?
00:13:41.220 50 years this could take to fix.
00:13:43.600 50 years.
00:13:44.140 And you know what it means?
00:13:44.720 It's 50 years of husband and wives having to spend time in the bedroom for the next 0.65
00:13:49.200 10 years just making babies.
00:13:50.680 Left and right.
00:13:51.680 They need to go bring the best R&B songs to China and these R&B guys need to go out and
00:13:56.280 perform nonstop on the radio, right?
00:13:58.600 Sade needs to be on repeat, baby.
00:14:00.860 Cherish the day, right?
00:14:02.260 That's all they need to be playing.
00:14:03.500 I'm going to stop here.
00:14:04.560 You get the drift.
00:14:05.920 So, if you got value from this video and you're thinking, and maybe I got you a laugh
00:14:11.000 as well, give it a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel.
00:14:14.020 I did a video titled 2023 Predictions and I talked about India and China.
00:14:17.580 If you've not seen it, this was shot in December of 2022.
00:14:21.100 Click here to watch it.
00:14:21.880 Take care, everybody.
00:14:22.640 Bye-bye, bye-bye.