Valuetainment - China's Catastrophic Mistake That Destroyed Their #1 Superpower Aspirations

00:00:00.000 Andy Grove said, only the paranoid survive.

00:00:02.120 Have you ever made a decision in life where you did not see the benefits or the consequences

00:00:07.220 of it for a year, two years, three years?

00:00:08.960 Well, China as a country made a decision in 1979 that they're seeing the consequences

00:00:14.280 of it, and it's very, very painful.

00:00:17.520 We're going to talk about that today.

00:00:18.580 So if you get value from this video, give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel.

00:00:30.700 Let's get right into it.

00:00:31.480 So what is this one policy they came up with in 1979 that changed the game?

00:00:35.060 Before I show this to you, I want to explain a couple of things.

00:00:37.520 Number one, if I ask you right now, what is the fastest growing social media platform in

00:00:43.400 America and the world?

00:00:44.620 And I told you, which former behemoth social media platform is getting slower and people

00:00:50.840 are no longer joining it, what would you say?

00:00:52.660 You probably said the first one is TikTok, right?

00:00:55.560 And you probably said Facebook.

00:00:57.280 Matter of fact, if I were to ask you right now, how often do you log onto Facebook?

00:01:01.300 If you said every day, odds are you're about 40 years old.

00:01:05.160 If you said, I don't ever go on TikTok, odds are you're about 40 years old.

00:01:09.140 If you said, I'm on TikTok every day, you're probably between 18 to 34 years old.

00:01:13.500 Here's the numbers.

00:01:14.540 Matter of fact, according to Statista, average of population on TikTok versus Facebook ages

00:01:20.200 18 to 34.

00:01:22.200 Here's what it looks like.

00:01:23.800 For Facebook, 51.5% of Facebook's population is 18 to 34.

00:01:29.860 But for TikTok, ready?

00:01:31.500 71.3%.

00:01:33.280 Whoever gets the young population will continue to grow year over year over year. 0.99

00:01:38.880 Right now, TikTok has a young audience.

00:01:40.480 Facebook has an aging audience that's kind of going away.

00:01:42.700 So let's look at China.

00:01:44.160 1979 is when they came out with the one-child policy to control population growth.

00:01:48.100 And there's this one great chart that they show with data, where if you look at this chart,

00:01:53.320 it's been said a growing economy, a healthy country is one that looks like a triangle.

00:01:59.060 And one that's a dying population is one that is looking like an inverted pyramid.

00:02:04.820 So if you look at these three, here's what you'll notice.

00:02:06.900 The one furthest to the left is China in 1990.

00:02:09.140 So what does that mean, the blue and the pink?

00:02:11.460 The blue is male population. 0.82

00:02:13.280 The pink is female population. 0.98

00:02:14.960 And if you look at the chart to the left, it'll show you 0 to 4, 5 to 9 years old, 10

00:02:19.200 to 14 years old, 15 to 20.

00:02:21.020 You see the idea.

00:02:21.820 It's showing which one is the biggest.

00:02:23.860 And it looks like a healthy triangle.

00:02:25.100 Meaning, China at that point had more kids, younger population, and their aging population

00:02:29.920 was smaller.

00:02:30.600 Then you go to 2014, look what happens there.

00:02:33.280 Then you go to 2025 is what they're predicting, look what that looks like.

00:02:37.060 And then go to 2050, if they go the way they're going right now.

00:02:39.680 This is not good news for them.

00:02:40.880 They're no longer young.

00:02:42.160 They're getting older.

00:02:43.240 So what does this really mean?

00:02:44.460 Let's go into a little bit deeper to see why this is a big issue.

00:02:47.100 So why did they do this, Pat?

00:02:48.020 Why did they come up with this one-child policy?

00:02:49.780 Because in 1950, the population started getting so big that they didn't have enough food supply.

00:02:54.320 They said, listen, we've got to figure this thing out.

00:02:55.880 We are way too big.

00:02:56.980 We don't have enough food.

00:02:57.780 We got to do something about this brilliant idea, one-child policy. 0.99

00:03:01.620 At least at the point, they thought it was a good policy.

00:03:03.380 And then that's kind of what turned into what it is today.

00:03:05.260 So let's look at this chart when it comes down to life expectancy.

00:03:07.800 If you look at this, you got the blue at the top.

00:03:09.680 You got the green at the bottom.

00:03:11.080 If you look at the top left, it says life expectancy from birth, years.

00:03:15.460 If you look at the bottom left, that's the green.

00:03:17.820 That's annual percentage change.

00:03:19.360 So let's focus on the top.

00:03:20.640 In 1964, the life expectancy in China was roughly 46.7 years old.

00:03:26.080 So you lived at around 46 and a half, you died.

00:03:29.340 From 1964 to current, that went from 46.73 to today, it's 77 years old.

00:03:36.520 Their life expectancy increased 30 years.

00:03:40.380 Matter of fact, if we divide 30 by 46, their life expectancy grew by nearly 70% in a span of 30 years.

00:03:46.740 So now the country's sitting there saying, how the hell are we going to handle this?

00:03:49.500 Even in one year, life expectancy went up 5%.

00:03:52.100 This is a concern.

00:03:53.260 So how did China get here?

00:03:54.320 Well, in 1971, you know, the one thing that Nixon gets a lot of credit for is to opening up the relation with China with the help of Henry Kissinger.

00:04:01.080 So they're going out there.

00:04:01.880 Things are looking a little bit smooth.

00:04:03.100 What about if we do this?

00:04:03.880 What about if we do that?

00:04:04.600 All of a sudden, 1978, China says, after years of control, they finally implemented a major program of economic reform.

00:04:10.920 It encouraged private business, foreign trade, and investment, relaxed state control over prices, and invested in industrial production and the education of its workforce.

00:04:18.480 So what did this do?

00:04:19.600 They went from growing in 1978 at 6% of their economy to 9% according to Brookings Institute.

00:04:26.080 Well, when this happens, there's a big difference between 6% and 9%.

00:04:29.140 That's a 50% growth.

00:04:30.280 They got to start looking at some things there, right?

00:04:32.180 So if you look at historically what they did in 1990, December, Shanghai stock market reopens for the first time since 1949.

00:04:38.620 And then eventually, in the late 90s, early 2000, they joined WTO, World Trade Organization.

00:04:45.300 So now, everybody around the world wants to do business with China.

00:04:48.480 So let's look at Chinese's fertility rate. 0.94

00:04:50.420 What happened over the years?

00:04:51.420 Were they having a lot of kids before?

00:04:52.720 And how bad was it when they said only one child policy? 0.73

00:04:55.340 Can they really stop everybody in China from having sex? 0.98

00:04:59.040 Here's what it looks like.

00:05:00.000 In 1950, the average woman was having around 6 kids.

00:05:04.480 And it stayed at that number until about the late 60s.

00:05:07.480 Then it dropped off from 1970 at 6 all the way down to 3 in 1978.

00:05:13.220 And it gradually kept going down and down and down until it was around 1.5 from 1995 till today.

00:05:19.400 So you may be looking at this saying, so what, Pat?

00:05:21.040 People stopped having babies.

00:05:22.360 I mean, you know, they already have 1.5 billion people.

00:05:24.500 They had a billion people.

00:05:25.240 What's the big deal if people stopped having babies?

00:05:27.140 Well, this led to the four problem that they talk about.

00:05:29.960 What is that?

00:05:30.400 Each child now is responsible for taking care of two aging parents and four aging grandparents.

00:05:37.740 Culturally, that's what you got to do.

00:05:39.160 It's like, man, I don't have that kind of money.

00:05:40.580 How can I go out there and take care of all these guys?

00:05:42.340 On top of that, parents wanted to start having boys, not girls.

00:05:47.040 So gradually, because boys can help with the businesses, right? 0.99

00:05:50.300 That's kind of how they viewed it.

00:05:51.720 Gradually, when you think about population, for every one girl, there's one boy, right? 0.82

00:05:55.640 That's kind of what we're all.

00:05:56.500 So in China, it kept going higher and higher and higher, where there were years, where

00:06:00.740 it was 110 males for every 100 female, 10% higher, because they were leaning towards

00:06:06.480 that.

00:06:06.940 Well, that's a problem as well.

00:06:08.100 There's a lot of times you hear about, you'll read about that women are sitting there and 1.00

00:06:11.160 say, well, I want to pick and choose what man I want to be with, because there's more

00:06:13.980 men than women.

00:06:15.440 That's one of the challenges that they're seeing in China today.

00:06:18.420 So we get the idea.

00:06:19.300 Some people might say, well, Pat, give me a break.

00:06:20.920 I get what you're saying here.

00:06:21.760 Okay, fine, 110 per 100, fine.

00:06:24.600 Their workforce has gotten bigger year over year over year.

00:06:27.040 You're right up until 2014, 2015.

00:06:30.700 Here's what it looked like.

00:06:31.760 If you look at it from 2000, that's 739 million people working.

00:06:35.320 It kept going up, up, up to 760, to 770, to 780, all the way up to 800 in 2015.

00:06:43.500 And then what do they see?

00:06:44.580 Every year, it keeps going lower and lower and lower.

00:06:47.400 Why?

00:06:48.180 Because aging populations retiring.

00:06:50.120 They don't want to work anymore, and they're not having enough kids, so the younger population 1.00

00:06:53.440 is having to do double the work, because there's not enough of them to sustain and take care

00:06:56.960 of everybody.

00:06:57.620 This is a major issue.

00:06:58.660 So what happens when there's an aging population?

00:07:00.300 What do they need to think about it?

00:07:01.360 They need what?

00:07:01.880 Social security.

00:07:02.460 Someone's got to take care of retirement.

00:07:03.640 I didn't save any money.

00:07:04.560 How do I eat?

00:07:05.680 Health care.

00:07:06.180 I need to go see the doctor.

00:07:07.260 Things are no longer working the way they did.

00:07:08.740 My body's breaking down, right?

00:07:10.500 MedSup, MedAdvantage, you know, health care, prescription.

00:07:14.180 So that's expensive.

00:07:15.580 Who's going to pay for that?

00:07:16.660 Taxes?

00:07:16.980 So if you look at this, you may say, well, it could be okay if they're having more newborns,

00:07:22.680 zero to four, than people that are above 60.

00:07:25.420 So as long as that's bigger than the other, we should be okay.

00:07:27.840 Look at this chart here on what it's looking like, comparing newborns to four years old,

00:07:32.820 new kids being born, versus the population of 60 plus.

00:07:36.500 This is deeply concerning.

00:07:37.820 Take a look at this.

00:07:38.380 1950, if you look at that, till 1995.

00:07:43.100 Every year, they had a bigger population ages zero to four than they did 60 plus until around 1995.

00:07:48.900 Then look what happened to it.

00:07:50.060 By now, the elderly people in China, quarter of a billion people and climbing while the zero to four

00:07:59.020 is declining.

00:08:00.120 Who the hell is going to take care of these folks? 0.94

00:08:02.620 Who?

00:08:03.200 With what kind of money?

00:08:04.700 With what kind of wealth?

00:08:06.220 How are they going to handle this?

00:08:07.280 And by the way, they've been trying to keep this a secret for a while, because just in 2020,

00:08:11.480 China finally begrudgingly admitted that they overcounted their younger population by 100 million people.

00:08:20.140 100 million?

00:08:20.880 Then the world's like, wait a minute.

00:08:22.480 You're not as young as you told us you are.

00:08:24.720 You were not reporting these numbers right. 0.99

00:08:27.100 Damn, if this is the case, you're in trouble. 0.99

00:08:29.860 People are not starting to figure it out. 0.99

00:08:31.400 Pat, this is a lot of fear mongering, because look, if you really want to say that this has happened,

00:08:35.120 show us some of the health expenditure, because you can't tell us this is happening and their

00:08:38.240 health expenditure is not really going higher.

00:08:40.660 Here's a chart that's going to validate this.

00:08:42.580 From 2001 till today, look at this.

00:08:44.280 This is in billion won.

00:08:46.500 Eight trillion is what they had to spend last year.

00:08:49.540 Just 20 years ago, it was a little over half a trillion a year to now eight trillion and 20 years.

00:08:57.620 Let me unpack this for you.

00:08:59.540 This means it used to take you $75,000 a year of expenses to take care of yourself 20 years ago.

00:09:08.620 And you know what it is today?

00:09:10.180 Today, you have to do, I don't know, $1.2 million per year in 20 years.

00:09:16.660 How are you going to do that?

00:09:17.980 That's a lot of pressure in a nation that China is currently having to solve.

00:09:22.840 That's a big problem they have as well.

00:09:24.160 So now you may say, well, Pat, pick on somebody your own side.

00:09:26.520 You know, China, you're comparing it to smaller countries.

00:09:28.900 Why don't you compare China with somebody its own side, such as India?

00:09:31.420 No problem.

00:09:32.480 So China used to be the biggest population in the world.

00:09:35.260 India just passed them up just recently.

00:09:36.820 This is not like happened 20 years ago.

00:09:38.960 This is recent.

00:09:39.600 The last year or so passed them up.

00:09:41.020 But when you look at China's population above 65 years old, China has 166 million people above 65.

00:09:47.520 You know what India has above 65 years old? 1.00

00:09:49.380 Only 84 million.

00:09:50.940 Okay, that's what India's got. 0.99

00:09:52.100 And India's young. 0.89

00:09:53.300 Their average age, I believe, is around 26 to 28 years old.

00:09:55.900 The average age of the population in China is around 38.4 years old.

00:09:59.480 That's a big number right there.

00:10:01.120 So yes, even if we pick on somebody their own size, India's young, China's old. 1.00

00:10:06.880 There's a reason why these guys cannot stand each other.

00:10:09.380 And India just blocked over 100 apps from China.

00:10:12.620 China, if there is a country they may hate, as much as they hate America, and they keep it to themselves,

00:10:19.420 and they don't publicly advertise, well, sometimes they do publicly advertise it,

00:10:22.260 they hate India, because they fear India.

00:10:25.380 Because India is young, and they're getting old. 1.00

00:10:27.600 So what happens to us when we're getting old?

00:10:29.320 As we get older, we don't spend as much money as we did when we were younger.

00:10:31.940 Younger, we want to kind of buy and impress people.

00:10:33.720 You get older, you're going to say, I'm not really too worried about it.

00:10:35.780 So what's the problem with this?

00:10:37.100 Well, today, household consumption accounts for around 37 to 38% in China.

00:10:43.820 Okay, this is according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China,

00:10:47.040 which means they're having to rely on outsiders to buy their stuff, like America and other countries.

00:10:53.040 And this 37, 38% number that I just gave used to be 68% in 1980.

00:10:58.320 They relied on themselves.

00:10:59.460 They can't do that anymore.

00:11:00.900 Now they need you and I.

00:11:01.940 Now they need other countries.

00:11:03.060 So that is problematic for a country like China,

00:11:05.860 because if other people don't buy their customers, they're going to take a massive hit.

00:11:10.140 Like, well, listen, look at America.

00:11:11.540 We got 40 million immigrants.

00:11:12.840 At least America's got all these immigrants coming. 1.00

00:11:14.520 I'm sure China's been crushing with immigration. 0.98

00:11:16.200 Who wouldn't want to go to China?

00:11:17.360 See all these big buildings?

00:11:18.900 See all these things they're doing?

00:11:20.060 They got to be crushing it with migration, right? 1.00

00:11:22.100 What if I told you, since 1950 till today,

00:11:25.660 China's net migration rate has been in the negative.

00:11:29.540 They've never been in the positive.

00:11:31.240 The only thing is people want to escape that place.

00:11:33.260 No one's trying to go to China.

00:11:34.420 They're trying to leave China.

00:11:35.460 People trying to come to America. 1.00

00:11:36.680 Ain't nobody trying to leave America, at least not till today, right?

00:11:39.600 If it wasn't for migration in America, we would also be in the negative. 0.89

00:11:43.460 But we get other people, immigrants, that want to come here, like this guy. 0.91

00:11:46.660 Like some of you, maybe.

00:11:47.860 So these numbers, when you look at China's net migration rate versus U.S.,

00:11:51.920 we've always been in the positive since 1950.

00:11:54.340 And matter of fact, since 1970, we've been at 3% every year, as high as 6% at times.

00:11:59.680 Because everybody wants to take advantage of the American dream.

00:12:05.020 Millions want to do that every year.

00:12:07.060 Look, I don't have any more data.

00:12:08.040 I can pull a bunch of different things to show you, but it's like beating a dead horse

00:12:10.640 right now.

00:12:11.200 I think it's fair to say Xi is probably not going to like this post, this video.

00:12:13.920 We're not going to get a thumbs up.

00:12:14.820 Probably Yao Ming's not going to like.

00:12:15.920 Probably Jackie Chan's not going to like this video. 0.98

00:12:18.380 I think he's going to be probably upset about this.

00:12:19.980 So what's the point about this whole thing?

00:12:21.360 To have a population, a country grow, you need to average around 2.1 child per woman born,

00:12:27.100 right?

00:12:27.540 China right now is around 1.1.

00:12:29.400 We covered that part already.

00:12:30.640 But what does all this stuff really mean?

00:12:31.860 I mean, look, Xi stands there very confidently around everybody else.

00:12:35.460 He doesn't look like he's concerned.

00:12:36.640 He's brokering deals with Putin.

00:12:38.560 They look very confident talking about the next hundred years.

00:12:41.120 They're teaming up with Iran. 0.63

00:12:42.540 They're teaming up with Saudi.

00:12:44.020 They're teaming up with Russia.

00:12:45.380 They're teaming up with all these other guys.

00:12:46.940 And everybody around the country is saying, well, the new world order 2.0 is those guys.

00:12:51.880 Should we be worried about it?

00:12:53.160 The video started off with the first phrase I said was what?

00:12:56.060 Andy Grove, only the paranoid survive.

00:12:58.820 We have to stay paranoid all the time.

00:13:00.960 Because as things like this happen, if you get too cocky and say, don't worry about those

00:13:05.000 guys, they're not doing as good as they think they're doing, I understand.

00:13:08.700 But also at the same time, 75% of poker hands, the winner wasn't the best hand.

00:13:15.260 It's who could bluff the best.

00:13:18.160 And man, gee, dude, somebody send that man a bracelet.

00:13:22.740 Dude, you're crushing it.

00:13:24.180 They're going to have to deal with this issue.

00:13:25.840 This is not a good one.

00:13:27.060 And this is an issue that's going to take a couple of decades to fix.

00:13:29.540 You know, certain things in life, you're like, man, I put on 48 pounds.

00:13:32.020 You can get off of your sweets or coke or bread and you'll lose the weight eventually

00:13:36.200 three, six months.

00:13:37.100 You cannot lose this weight in three to six months.

00:13:39.360 You know how long this could take to fix?

00:13:41.220 50 years this could take to fix.

00:13:43.600 50 years.

00:13:44.140 And you know what it means?

00:13:44.720 It's 50 years of husband and wives having to spend time in the bedroom for the next 0.65

00:13:49.200 10 years just making babies.

00:13:50.680 Left and right.

00:13:51.680 They need to go bring the best R&B songs to China and these R&B guys need to go out and

00:13:56.280 perform nonstop on the radio, right?

00:13:58.600 Sade needs to be on repeat, baby.

00:14:00.860 Cherish the day, right?

00:14:02.260 That's all they need to be playing.

00:14:03.500 I'm going to stop here.

00:14:04.560 You get the drift.

00:14:05.920 So, if you got value from this video and you're thinking, and maybe I got you a laugh

00:14:11.000 as well, give it a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel.

00:14:14.020 I did a video titled 2023 Predictions and I talked about India and China.

00:14:17.580 If you've not seen it, this was shot in December of 2022.

00:14:21.100 Click here to watch it.

00:14:21.880 Take care, everybody.

00:14:22.640 Bye-bye, bye-bye.

Valuetainment - May 25, 2023

China's Catastrophic Mistake That Destroyed Their #1 Superpower Aspirations

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