Valuetainment - August 15, 2025


＂CIA Doesn’t Have Intelligence Superiority＂ - Ex-CIA Spy SLAMS U.S. Dependence On Mossad Intel


Episode Stats

Length

17 minutes

Words per Minute

186.84714

Word Count

3,327

Sentence Count

226

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

11


Summary

In this episode of the podcast, I sit down with my good friend and former CIA analyst, Mark Colburn, to talk about how intelligence agencies get their information. We talk about the process of gathering intelligence, how the CIA gets their information, and how to make sure you re getting the correct information.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 If we chose to go be as reckless as them and we get to a point where the CIA is like, look, what do you guys want to do?
00:00:09.600 We keep going like this.
00:00:10.440 Look what they're doing.
00:00:11.500 They're getting involved.
00:00:12.460 They have control over us.
00:00:13.820 I'm not playing by the rules.
00:00:15.020 You guys can't bully me.
00:00:15.820 I'm going to come in.
00:00:16.420 I'm going to own a bunch of your Congress folks.
00:00:18.020 I'm going to give them a bunch of money.
00:00:19.220 I'm going to use different NGOs, charities, APAC, whatever you want to call it.
00:00:23.420 Trust me.
00:00:23.900 I'm going to get that control over a lot of your guys here because I can do that.
00:00:27.760 I'm not doing anything illegal.
00:00:28.860 Everything, I'm going by the books.
00:00:30.460 Yeah, maybe I'll use some of the methods.
00:00:32.060 That's going to be a little bit crazy.
00:00:33.980 And for us, we're trying to be very much amicable and very much following by the rules and let's report everything the proper way.
00:00:42.440 It's a chaotic situation on how you manage that specific relationship with another intel agency that can break the rules and do whatever they want to do.
00:00:50.960 And the thing is you're not trying to manage the relationship.
00:00:54.920 In reality, what you're trying to do is leverage the relationship for your own benefit.
00:00:58.860 That's the real reason.
00:01:00.100 Is that what we do?
00:01:01.040 That's why intelligence agencies cooperate.
00:01:03.580 The problem is then it becomes a game of which intelligence officers are more skilled, can move fastest, and can make the bigger promise.
00:01:12.780 And that's where we start to shoot ourselves in the foot again.
00:01:15.280 United States sits at the table in a joint intelligence subcommittee with the Mexicans, which is happening right now to fight cartels.
00:01:22.700 In a situation like that, we bring the bigger budget, we bring the bigger weapons, we bring the better recon infrastructure.
00:01:31.320 The Mexicans are going to listen to us.
00:01:32.980 They're going to do what we want them to do, and we're going to get lots of access into their agencies.
00:01:36.980 That's a good thing.
00:01:37.820 That's a win.
00:01:38.260 But flip the ticket, somebody that doesn't have the same need as a Mexican law enforcement agency, and all of a sudden the rules change, the leverage changes.
00:01:48.740 Yeah, but what I'm thinking about with this is, so if they don't have the rules, they get the intel from us, like my kids.
00:01:57.600 My daughter will come and say, Daddy, Senna hit me, Senna hit me, and that's her intel, okay?
00:02:05.620 Then I go in there, and then my son will say, No, she didn't hit her.
00:02:11.920 Brooklyn scratched her back, and then Senna reacted, but Brooklyn started it.
00:02:18.120 And then she'll go like this and give me a look.
00:02:19.660 I'm like, Did you do that?
00:02:20.500 And I'm like, Two witnesses that I believe, right?
00:02:22.120 So then the question becomes, what if we rely on them for intel, but they come and give us whatever intel that they want us to know, but not the full intel, that makes us overreact, but we have to trust the intel because we can't go to another person that was a witness to say, No, that's not really the full story.
00:02:41.660 This is the real full story.
00:02:42.960 How do you inspect the intel that's being given to you that doesn't have another person holding them accountable?
00:02:49.120 And again, you're right on the money with the question.
00:02:53.120 We have a process that we have called the corroboration of intelligence, corroboration of intelligence.
00:03:00.280 So when an intel report comes in, that is a single-sourced intel report.
00:03:05.060 We're looking for corroborating intelligence, a second intel report that says the same thing or nearly the same thing as the first intelligence report, but from a completely separate source.
00:03:14.140 When you have corroboration, that's the two witnesses that you trust.
00:03:17.940 That also lets you know if the first source or the second source is being honest, because if you have information that's not corroborating and they both say they're telling the truth, you have reason to doubt them both.
00:03:28.800 That is a big part of why we have 36 intelligence agencies, because Air Force is giving us intel, Navy is giving us intel, NSA is giving us intel, NRO is giving us intel, CIA and NSA are giving us intel.
00:03:42.720 So even between the agencies, we're hoping to find corroboration that allows us to validate foreign sources.
00:03:48.060 Oh, that's actually not what I'm asking.
00:03:49.100 I'm asking if we're dealing with, you know, for example, if we're trying to get intel, how many CIA agents do we have in Iran right now?
00:03:55.760 That's a great, exactly.
00:03:56.980 Who do we have?
00:03:57.440 We have Mossad agents in Iran.
00:03:58.620 Correct.
00:03:58.920 We can't go in there, right?
00:04:00.560 We did a skit a couple of weeks ago, not a skit.
00:04:02.620 We're in the middle of the podcast.
00:04:03.480 I'm like, what if we send 200 African-American agents to Iran to act like they're Iranian?
00:04:08.040 You know, Tyrone Johnson, right?
00:04:09.720 Tyrone Johnson, but they're African-American.
00:04:11.780 I don't care if you're a speaker or anything.
00:04:13.220 They know you're not from Iran.
00:04:14.440 They know you're, it's weird for you to be here, right?
00:04:16.480 But so who do we rely on to get intel on what's going on with the scientists that are working on nuclear weapons or where Khamenei is in Iran?
00:04:29.040 We have to rely on somebody else's intel to give to us.
00:04:31.860 And whose intel are we going to rely on?
00:04:33.260 Iraq, Saudi, or Mossad?
00:04:35.980 So what I'm saying is if Mossad has whatever the numbers we've read about, low 700, high 2,000, and Iran just kicked out, I think, 550 of them.
00:04:43.740 They arrested them.
00:04:44.440 Something happened to them.
00:04:45.240 So, Rob, if you want to verify what I'm saying here, how do we know when Mossad's given us intel, we don't have representatives there to check to see if they're telling us the truth or not?
00:04:55.600 Do we just risk believing them?
00:04:57.520 So the short answer is yes.
00:04:59.480 The short answer is when you don't have intelligence superiority, when you don't have information superiority, you have to start to take risks on the people that you think do have information superiority.
00:05:11.460 Now, there are certain benefits here.
00:05:12.680 Saudi Arabia and Israel both have a threat from Iran.
00:05:18.440 So we would anticipate that both of them would be actively collecting against Iran.
00:05:22.560 However, neither of them fully trust the United States.
00:05:25.920 So we're going to be getting groomed intelligence from both of them, meaning it's going to be shaped for what they want us to know.
00:05:32.280 But it's still an opportunity for us to see if one or the other is saying the same thing or something different.
00:05:37.160 Plus, don't forget about all of our intelligence assets that are not human, right?
00:05:41.320 SIGINT collection, satellite connection, open source collection.
00:05:44.560 There's lots of other collection efforts besides just human beings on the ground that we can use to collect intelligence.
00:05:49.180 So we're now trying to find whether or not the SIGINT corroborates the Saudi report.
00:05:53.860 Tell me about the SIGINT.
00:05:54.720 Tell me about all the three.
00:05:55.600 So what I'm talking about are human sources coming from two allied countries and then a third signals intelligence that's coming from NSA.
00:06:03.740 Because NSA collects signals worldwide.
00:06:06.180 Okay.
00:06:06.560 So you don't have to be there to get that.
00:06:08.100 And then you said, what was the other two, SIGINT?
00:06:09.940 And then?
00:06:10.420 So there's SIGINT.
00:06:11.320 There's open source, open source information.
00:06:13.220 Those are all the analysts that can pull things in foreign languages, in English language, academic sources, et cetera, and then start to cross-reference to see what intelligence you can derive from open source information.
00:06:23.160 Okay.
00:06:23.440 But if we're getting it from Mossad and we're not there, just a question for you.
00:06:30.020 Human rights reported that 530 people across Iran that were violating espionage Israeli Mossad.
00:06:36.720 So this was June 13, 2025, 530 that they found that they were going through and they detained a bunch of these guys.
00:06:43.220 But if Mossad gives us the intel, how many CIA agents does America currently physical have in Iran right now?
00:06:51.780 I don't know the answer.
00:06:52.780 If I knew the answer, it would be classified.
00:06:54.800 But I will say that my assessment, less than what fit on two hands.
00:07:00.020 Damn.
00:07:00.320 Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, your sophisticated or rather your most rogue nations have been systematically kicking Americans out, hunting down anybody who even looks like an asset,
00:07:16.920 and then publicly punishing these people to further instigate and protect themselves against people turning against their country for a long time.
00:07:26.420 Now you'll see, and I mean, it's fantastic if you do a quick search, you'll see the kind of commercials that CIA and MI6 are putting out there to try to get people to volunteer.
00:07:36.660 The reason those things don't work very well is because your next door neighbor just got arrested because they think he's an American spy.
00:07:42.900 And then you on the Internet see a CIA commercial says, hey, become an American spy.
00:07:47.180 And you're like, fuck no.
00:07:48.200 I just saw what happened to my neighbor.
00:07:49.960 I can hate the regime all day long without talking to you.
00:07:52.560 What do we, like, let's just say it's Russia or Iran and somebody reaches out, right?
00:07:57.000 And China, somebody reaches out.
00:07:59.020 What do we give in return for them to give intel?
00:08:01.140 Well, so you're talking about if I, if like.
00:08:05.940 So the Russia ad, right?
00:08:06.980 The Russia ad that you have, and it tells the story.
00:08:09.060 It's very emotional, by the way.
00:08:10.100 Remember back in the days when your father and he went through this and now you have this.
00:08:13.560 Do it for your country like these China ads, these Russia ads that they do.
00:08:17.320 Okay, so I want to give intel.
00:08:19.240 What is that Iranian, that Russian, that Chinese person that's sick of their own country?
00:08:24.520 What do they get in return?
00:08:25.500 This is a lot like our conversation about why would an American support CIA.
00:08:29.260 Okay, a huge chunk of their motivation is that they believe they're doing the right thing.
00:08:35.840 They'll take the risk believing they're doing the right thing.
00:08:38.500 Now, America never wants that.
00:08:40.220 You always want to have leverage.
00:08:41.540 So we try to find a leverage point.
00:08:43.620 Is that leverage point money?
00:08:44.920 Is that leverage point, you know, medicine?
00:08:46.920 Is that leverage point a visa to get your family out of the country?
00:08:49.980 We look at all of those options.
00:08:51.840 But we have to give something right away.
00:08:53.600 One of the reasons I really don't like Bitcoin is because Bitcoin has become the currency of choice for espionage around the world.
00:09:01.000 If you're a North Korean trying to recruit an American scientist, you're going to pay them in Bitcoin.
00:09:06.960 Well, if you're a Chinese person trying to report to American intelligence, you're probably also getting paid in Bitcoin.
00:09:12.580 In a way, I know this is not the answer you're probably expecting to hear from me.
00:09:18.700 In a way, that's good because there is a way to give something that if you do this and it's real, we can send half a Bitcoin or we can send a Bitcoin over to you and it's decentralized.
00:09:29.860 So it can't be fully tracked of where it's coming from.
00:09:32.440 So part of that is good, but the other part of it is if, okay, when you were in the CIA, and you don't need to give this answer, I'm just trying to see if you knew it.
00:09:45.680 Would you guys all know how many actual officers were in any country at any given time?
00:09:52.380 Did you guys know that?
00:09:53.060 Only for our, the short answer is yes, for the area of responsibility we were working in.
00:09:59.600 The longer answer is there are different categories of officers.
00:10:03.400 Some of them are outside of our need to know.
00:10:05.480 So I would know how many officers of my caliber were there, but then there might be some of a deeper cover that I wouldn't know at all.
00:10:11.800 And there might be some that were barely covered that I also wouldn't know at all.
00:10:15.160 So above your rank, you wouldn't know if they're there or not.
00:10:19.840 Correct.
00:10:20.060 Okay, so at the peak ever, if you were to guesstimate, what's the most officers that we had in Iran actually working, what would that be?
00:10:31.740 I mean, the peak would have probably been under the Shah and 60-ish.
00:10:38.160 Still 60, still not a big number.
00:10:40.140 Not a big number of American officers.
00:10:42.780 That's exactly what I'm saying.
00:10:43.820 Yeah, but they would be running networks of locals.
00:10:45.800 So, okay, so if they're there, would they be white guys?
00:10:51.480 Would they be regular guys that look like?
00:10:53.960 They could be.
00:10:54.700 They would be basically whatever the United States, whatever the United States was hiring at CIA, which was predominantly Caucasian back then.
00:11:01.100 But there could have been women.
00:11:02.260 There could have been blacks.
00:11:03.500 There could have been Asians that were also recruited by CIA at the time.
00:11:06.700 So it's not like they're going and finding American, Iranian, Iraqi, whatever, to be able to leverage them to send them there.
00:11:13.520 Correct.
00:11:13.920 If anything, they're trying to avoid that because of the instant suspicion.
00:11:17.380 So what is the population right now of Americans living in Iran today?
00:11:21.880 Do we know that number, Rob?
00:11:22.940 Can you pull up?
00:11:23.740 That's a good question.
00:11:24.320 What is the population of Caucasian Americans living in Iran today?
00:11:30.900 White Americans living in Iran today.
00:11:33.040 You can put Caucasian.
00:11:33.820 Let's see what it says.
00:11:34.840 Living in Iran today.
00:11:36.000 Because if I'm Iran, even if I see one person, it appears there's no publicly available reliable sources.
00:11:44.860 Although exact numbers are not published past this, it may suggest that thousands of U.S. citizens, including expats, dual national students, and business professionals reside or stay in Iran, often intermittently in mid-2025 during the rising tension.
00:11:57.860 The State Department issued this vacuum.
00:11:58.880 I remember this one.
00:11:59.520 This is recent.
00:12:00.860 That just happened.
00:12:01.480 25,000 people.
00:12:02.680 This is right before they attacked the nuclear facility.
00:12:05.040 They say, you've got to get out of there.
00:12:06.460 But what I'm trying to say is, okay, even if one white guy lives in Iran, why are you here?
00:12:13.260 So if I'm Iran and I'm overly paranoid consistently, I'm going to be like, you're either CIA, you're either somebody that's trying to give intel to another, get him out of here, right?
00:12:23.380 Or arrest him.
00:12:23.980 Find a way to get.
00:12:24.540 So that's not going to work effectively.
00:12:27.360 So we have to rely.
00:12:28.820 What other intel do we rely on as much as Mossad to get intel from Iran?
00:12:33.780 So I don't want to think of it as a country.
00:12:36.620 I want to think of it as a rogue nation.
00:12:38.240 A rogue nation means a nation that basically prevents the transients of American citizens like Iran, like North Korea.
00:12:46.460 These are countries where you can't get in.
00:12:49.740 If you have an American passport, good luck getting in.
00:12:52.720 And if you do get in, good luck not going to jail right away.
00:12:55.020 So rogue nations, you primarily rely on third country intelligence, like we're talking about with Mossad.
00:13:01.460 You primarily rely on signals intelligence, which you would get from NSA.
00:13:04.900 You primarily rely on military intelligence, which you would get from the intelligence services of your four branches or five branches of military with the Space Force.
00:13:12.540 And those branches of the military are getting a lot of their information from other third party groups.
00:13:18.580 They're getting it from the UN.
00:13:19.640 They're getting it from military channels.
00:13:22.100 Submarines collect secrets.
00:13:23.840 Airplanes collect secrets.
00:13:26.240 So you've got this conglomerate at all times that are always collecting.
00:13:29.700 But you're primarily relying on signals that you can absorb and intercept.
00:13:34.320 And your human intelligence is coming from a third party.
00:13:38.040 But aside from Mossad, do we have another intel that we trust that would be in Iran to get intel for us or no?
00:13:43.540 It would mainly be Mossad.
00:13:44.680 So the 25,000 people, if you scroll back up again, this is an important two words that often get overlooked.
00:13:51.800 You see the dual nationals?
00:13:53.800 Yes.
00:13:54.280 There are only a handful of countries that allow you to have dual citizenship with the United States.
00:13:57.900 Those countries would allow you to have both an American passport and a foreign passport.
00:14:03.660 So you could travel into Iran on the foreign passport, and essentially the border agents would never know you're an American citizen.
00:14:08.880 Who are the five countries?
00:14:09.820 There's only a handful.
00:14:11.160 Costa Rica allows you to have dual citizenship.
00:14:13.400 Spain allows you to have dual citizenship.
00:14:15.520 I believe Canada might let you have dual citizenship.
00:14:17.980 Rob, can you look that up?
00:14:18.880 Yeah, thank you.
00:14:19.620 What countries allow Americans to have dual citizenship?
00:14:22.280 Israel is one of them.
00:14:24.420 There you go.
00:14:25.020 Canada, Mexico, many in Latin America.
00:14:29.280 Oh, these require that you scroll that up again one more time.
00:14:33.940 These nations do not require that you renounce your citizenship.
00:14:36.240 So these are all dual national countries for the United States.
00:14:40.460 Okay.
00:14:40.760 And then if you go lower up, where is Israel on that list?
00:14:45.140 Because a lot of, you know, the criticism that a lot of, there it is, go a little bit lower up, countries that allow it only in limited circumstances, Japan, Singapore, countries that generally do not allow dual citizenship.
00:14:58.640 Let's see this list real quick.
00:15:00.420 China, India, Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Indonesia, Malaysia.
00:15:04.480 Where is Iran on this list, by the way?
00:15:07.340 Did you see anywhere Iran above?
00:15:08.920 I think Iran allows dual citizenship, actually.
00:15:12.380 If you, there it is.
00:15:16.580 So scroll up to section one, sir.
00:15:20.220 No, I don't see it under Asia Pacific.
00:15:22.900 I didn't see it under Middle East either.
00:15:25.120 So this is not all encompassing.
00:15:26.280 There's 160 something countries.
00:15:27.580 So this is not every country.
00:15:28.580 Iran does not formally recognize dual citizenship.
00:15:31.300 Under Iranian law, anyone who is considered an Iran citizen is treated solely as an Iranian citizen while in Iran.
00:15:35.980 Iran, even if they hold another passport, dual citizenship is legally, isn't legally acknowledged.
00:15:41.560 Iran will not provide conciliar access to dual nationalists from their country while in Iran.
00:15:50.020 If you are an Iranian citizen under Iranian law by birth, Iran assumes you are 100% Iranian in legal matters.
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