Valuetainment - “Diaper Rash Indicator” – 9 SHOCKING Recession Signs Suggest A MAJOR Economic Collapse Is Coming

00:00:00.000 Nine weird recession indicators from lipstick to snacks.

00:00:05.520 There's a lot of talks right now about recession.

00:00:07.880 A lot.

00:00:08.360 A lot of people want it to happen.

00:00:10.420 Some people think it may happen due to some of the policies that we're having,

00:00:14.920 but we kind of need to go through it.

00:00:16.500 But let's take a look at this.

00:00:17.920 So nine weird recession indicators from lipstick to snacks,

00:00:21.320 according to Business Insider.

00:00:23.280 Number one, snack index.

00:00:25.520 People buy fewer snacks during recessions with evidence from 2008,

00:00:29.520 Great Recession, showing reduced consumption of snacks, fast food, and fresh produce.

00:00:34.480 General Mills, maker of Chex Mix and Nature Valley's granola bars,

00:00:39.580 reported a 5% drop in net sales in Q3 of 2025.

00:00:44.940 We're not even in Q3.

00:00:46.560 Is it orders?

00:00:47.460 I don't know why it says Q3 here.

00:00:48.600 Number two, mini alcohol bottle indicator.

00:00:52.320 Shoppers switch to mini bottles of alcohol during economic uncertainty

00:00:56.440 instead of full-size ones.

00:00:58.540 And CEO of Lawson Whiting says the reason small sizes are doing well

00:01:03.340 is more because of the cyclical inflation and its consumer that's pinched.

00:01:07.820 Okay, so if you're ordering those mini alcohol bottles, that's an indicator.

00:01:12.760 Three, lipstick index.

00:01:14.280 Coined by Leonard Lauder, billionaire heir to Estee Lauder in 2001,

00:01:19.040 when lipstick sales rose during a recession.

00:01:22.100 Lauder's theory.

00:01:22.760 Lipstick sales and the health of the economy were in inverse proportion to one another.

00:01:27.840 Sales rose in 2001 by 11%, boomed in 2008 during Great Recession,

00:01:33.440 and great recently despite high inflation.

00:01:36.240 Interesting.

00:01:36.980 Lipstick.

00:01:37.920 Underwear index.

00:01:39.160 What is this one?

00:01:39.940 Popularized by former Federer, Alan Griesman, suggests that men delay buying new underwear

00:01:44.660 during downturns.

00:01:45.740 Yeah, this is the chairman of the Fed talking about interest rates and underwear sales.

00:01:50.500 My dad, since 21 years old, for my birthday and my Christmas only gets me Costco underwear.

00:01:54.720 I don't understand.

00:01:55.340 Do you wear that?

00:01:56.040 I have enough underwear right now that I'm not open to start a side business.

00:01:59.240 If anybody's struggling, guys, my dad's got cases in our house.

00:02:04.040 I don't know.

00:02:04.280 He's worried about underwear.

00:02:05.240 Yeah.

00:02:05.660 But I love you, dad.

00:02:06.620 I know you've been doing that for a while.

00:02:07.740 So sales dipped in 2008.

00:02:09.400 Same thing with underwear.

00:02:11.220 Hemline index.

00:02:12.580 It claims that skirts shorten in good economic and lengthen in bad ones.

00:02:19.180 That is so weird.

00:02:20.520 From the 1920s.

00:02:22.300 So in good economy, ladies wear shorter skirt. 1.00

00:02:25.520 In bad economy, they wear longer skirts.

00:02:28.020 How the hell does that make any sense?

00:02:29.520 Next one.

00:02:30.540 Cardboard box indicator.

00:02:32.520 In early 2009, during the recession, shipments declined drastically

00:02:35.860 and manufacturers operated.

00:02:37.840 Rates fell.

00:02:38.540 This one's real.

00:02:39.460 Yeah.

00:02:39.800 Diaper rash indicator.

00:02:41.280 Diaper rash.

00:02:41.920 Parents ration diapers costing $500 to $900 a year during rough times,

00:02:46.720 increasing diaper rash and ointment sales.

00:02:50.260 And in 2011, diaper sales fell.

00:02:52.360 Ointment sales rose 8%, according to Wall Street Journal.

00:02:55.440 Champagne index.

00:02:56.380 U.S. sales fell from 23 million bottles pre-2008 to 12.5 million bottles in 2000.

00:03:03.520 That's a 50% drop off, according to UC Berkeley.

00:03:06.320 And then to 18%, it dropped in 2020 before hitting a $5.7 billion in 2021 and socializing resumed.

00:03:12.380 So in the last but not list, stripper index, exotic dancers noticed recessions early, says Alia Kisick, CEO of Financial Literacy.

00:03:21.460 Economist Peter added a decrease in restaurant tipping suggests that consumers are reducing discretionary spending.

00:03:28.320 Okay, Adam, your thoughts on the story.

00:03:29.600 Well, these are all just indicators, right?

00:03:32.600 So just like the S&P 500 is an index, is an indicator of what's going on in the economy.

00:03:38.120 By the way, since January, Tom, help me out here.

00:03:42.260 How has the market performed since Trump has taken office?

00:03:44.860 Bless you, Rob.

00:03:45.280 Well, it's down in the last trailing 30, trailing 60, as market sentiment is reacting negatively to the tariffs and what that could do to future earnings.

00:03:58.960 And so there's a lot of concern about that.

00:04:00.820 But also the S&P, I think, just had a four-day rally in the midst of all this.

00:04:06.460 I think just the last four days in a row, I believe.

00:04:08.180 Right.

00:04:08.440 So I feel like just recently the market has now broken even, like it was negative for the year recently.

00:04:14.100 But we've all discussed what's going on with the tariffs.

00:04:17.260 We feel like it's a necessary evil to help the economy.

00:04:20.860 Food poisoning.

00:04:21.160 The economy's got to get through some food poisoning.

00:04:23.020 It's almost like if you have cancer and you have to take a cancer drug or have to deal with going through the ill effects of that,

00:04:32.500 that's exactly what's going on with the economy right now.

00:04:34.300 But here are three things that I want to point out.

00:04:36.460 Of these nine indicators, number one, instead of buying regular bottles of alcohol, they're buying many bottles of alcohol.

00:04:44.580 Because you've still got to get drunk.

00:04:46.260 Right, Vin?

00:04:46.800 I mean, you understand, like, people, when they're alcoholics and they're at the party.

00:04:50.740 Yeah.

00:04:51.100 I know you're alcohol-free these days.

00:04:53.300 Yeah.

00:04:53.900 May 31st is two years.

00:04:55.480 And we're very proud of you.

00:04:56.480 Thank you.

00:04:56.800 If you were still drinking.

00:04:57.920 Oh, yeah.

00:04:58.440 Rather than getting a quart or a liter. 0.80

00:05:00.280 Like a little nipple. 0.99

00:05:00.600 You got little things.

00:05:01.300 You take them in your pocket.

00:05:02.200 Oh, all day.

00:05:03.040 Okay.

00:05:03.540 Number two, the diaper rash index.

00:05:05.260 By the way, let me ask you guys.

00:05:06.240 Yes, sir.

00:05:06.780 Have you ever bought small bottles of alcohol?

00:05:09.340 Yes.

00:05:09.820 Have you?

00:05:10.500 No.

00:05:10.860 Really?

00:05:11.200 Oh, honestly, I can say.

00:05:12.600 Because tequila Jose Cueva was so cheap to small bottles, why would I go buy the small ones?

00:05:16.480 Even when I was in the army and I was broke.

00:05:18.260 Well.

00:05:18.620 You guys really bought the small ones?

00:05:19.820 If I was driving.

00:05:22.040 Oh, okay.

00:05:22.560 Really?

00:05:22.760 Hey, if I was going somewhere, like if I was driving to a comic club.

00:05:24.760 Oh, if I was driving.

00:05:25.640 I would do it.

00:05:26.400 And then, dog, I was an alcoholic.

00:05:27.840 There ain't no shame in my game.

00:05:28.940 I would, right before I went in.

00:05:30.080 Would you drink and drive or would you pull over and take sips?

00:05:32.720 I did a lot of things.

00:05:33.740 I did a lot of crazy stuff.

00:05:35.620 Okay, so what else?

00:05:36.220 Let's see what else you did.

00:05:36.760 But here's another little hot tip for anybody out there.

00:05:38.700 You might have noticed, you know, drinks in clubs are like a hundred times more expensive.

00:05:43.220 Yeah.

00:05:43.400 So, you know, you bring a couple mini bottles in the club, next thing you know, or you have

00:05:49.480 a girl with a purse.

00:05:50.380 How much are drinks at the club right now?

00:05:51.980 Oh, in Miami?

00:05:53.260 Yeah.

00:05:53.660 20 bucks a pop.

00:05:54.440 That's insane.

00:05:54.860 For what though?

00:05:56.200 I mean, just standard cocktail.

00:05:57.820 Yeah.

00:05:58.460 20 bucks a pop.

00:05:59.060 What's a standard cocktail?

00:05:59.860 For ghetto liquor. 0.56

00:06:00.360 I mean.

00:06:00.800 Single martini off and just shell vodka, not a upscale.

00:06:04.480 If you want a cocktail, it's going to cost you 20 bucks.

00:06:06.560 Maybe it's 16 and they add tax and tip, bing, bing, bing, you're at 20.

00:06:10.180 Sometimes it's, yeah, here you go right here.

00:06:12.240 Well, that's what we were drinking in the car.

00:06:16.800 Like, that's why we would like, we would get, I'm dead serious.

00:06:18.980 We would get the little bottles.

00:06:20.020 And before we walked into the club, we would drink fast, go and have fun and have one drink

00:06:24.820 in the night.

00:06:25.380 Or you have a girl or the purse.

00:06:27.360 She brings a couple of bottles in the club.

00:06:29.260 You know, she does your dirty work for you. 1.00

00:06:30.820 Okay.

00:06:31.260 So here's another thing.

00:06:32.360 The three things.

00:06:33.940 Number two, the diaper rash index.

00:06:36.440 I mean, how tough are times if you're not going to basically get enough diapers and diaper

00:06:43.260 rash, ointments, Vaseline, what do you use for kids these days?

00:06:46.280 I don't know.

00:06:47.040 I don't have kids, but your kids are going to suffer.

00:06:49.820 There you go.

00:06:50.560 But then here's the big one, Pat.

00:06:52.140 And I'm sure it's going to create a little storm here.

00:06:54.640 But you know who notices recessions before anybody?

00:06:59.640 Forget Jim Cramer.

00:07:00.980 Forget Warren Buffett.

00:07:02.260 It's candy to the stage, candy to the stage, because strippers notice recessions before anybody, 0.99

00:07:09.500 because they are the sole beneficiary of consumer discretionary spending.

00:07:16.760 They're used to making it rain, $100 bills at a time.

00:07:19.540 Next thing you know, they're getting quarters.

00:07:21.020 Here we go.

00:07:21.620 Uh-oh.

00:07:22.700 Recession happening right now.

00:07:23.980 So across the U.S. and the U.K., strip clubs have slowed down significantly.

00:07:33.160 I mean, the last thing we need for a market is to go flat.

00:07:35.400 Same thing for the ladies out there. 1.00

00:07:36.580 But here's a little quote from Nikki Adams, who runs the campaign group English Collective 0.91

00:07:42.960 of Prostitutes. 0.91

00:07:45.100 She says, 0.99

00:07:45.580 The cost of living crisis is having terrible effect on sex workers.

00:07:48.240 We recorded a 30% jump in the last year in the number of callers seeking support.

00:07:53.400 Women are calling us upset and scared.

00:07:56.140 Women are frantically asking if we can provide food vouchers for food banks. 1.00

00:08:00.440 So they're having housing problems.

00:08:02.700 I guess this is going on all around the globe right now.

00:08:05.660 But it is a leading indicator of a recession.

00:08:08.980 So we'll see what happens.

00:08:09.820 Rob, the poll you ran of do you see the United States going into recession in 2025?

00:08:17.220 Okay.

00:08:17.500 Watch how it came out.

00:08:19.060 It's actually very interesting how everybody voted.

00:08:21.760 2,400 people have voted so far.

00:08:23.540 2,500 people have voted so far.

00:08:25.080 And the vote results are 53, no, 47, yes.

00:08:29.820 But 47 believe it could happen this year.

00:08:33.420 So it's 50-50.

00:08:34.040 It's 50-50.

00:08:35.120 Tom, your thoughts on this.

00:08:36.460 So some of these indicators are interesting headlines.

00:08:40.800 And it's something that business media can put out.

00:08:42.940 And this was from Business Insider.

00:08:44.080 But there are several of these indicators that are very real.

00:08:47.300 And people that track the economy watch them.

00:08:49.500 I watch the cardboard box indicator because that is a clear indication of shipping.

00:08:54.740 And you can see more or less happening.

00:08:56.920 Also, which is very interesting, is when inflation and when times are tough, the snacks are down.

00:09:03.940 People aren't buying the bag.

00:09:05.820 I mean Halloween.

00:09:07.020 They're not buying the bag of, like, Snickers minis and those little treats and stuff.

00:09:10.440 Those stay out of the grocery cart because, you know, things are a little tough.

00:09:14.920 And I have never in my life, and I think everybody on this podcast, what people know, is that we're not partying and none of us have full liquor closets at home.

00:09:24.260 I don't ever remember buying little bottles to take them home.

00:09:28.560 That may be a whole different slice of life.

00:09:30.280 But I don't ever remember that.

00:09:32.240 You know, you see them on airplanes, on the cart, when people do.

00:09:34.560 But I don't know about that one.

00:09:36.700 But the snack index and the cardboard index, I would see that.

00:09:40.700 What's a little alarming to me is I really was bummed out to see, I hadn't heard about this before, the diaper rash indicator, that parents would actually leave the diaper on their kid a little bit longer because now if you've walked down the diaper aisle, it's expensive.

00:09:55.400 Diapers are not cheap.

00:09:57.220 They're very expensive.

00:09:58.720 And so, by the way, if you know people that have had kids, one of the greatest gifts you can give them is those newborn diapers.

00:10:06.320 Go to Costco, get a couple of those big, big, giant shrink wrap things because they're expensive.

00:10:11.680 But I didn't know about that one.

00:10:14.460 But I also had heard about the champagne index, that the high-end wines in champagne, that that is another, you know, very, very clear index.

00:10:23.560 I find the underwear index in Alan Greenspan funny.

00:10:26.200 Alan Greenspan, we're talking about interest rates.

00:10:28.580 What concerns you about the economy?

00:10:31.060 Well, you know, the underwear index has really got me bothered.

00:10:34.360 I just can't see Alan Greenspan talking about that.

00:10:36.300 Tom, you want to know why I love you and appreciate you?

00:10:38.420 Because your two leading indicators were the cardboard box indicator and the mini snacks.

00:10:47.040 And I'm looking at the mini alcohol bottles and the stripper index.

00:10:51.520 But we meet in the middle at the diaper rash indicator.

00:10:54.060 So that's amazing.

00:10:54.540 Exactly.

00:10:55.500 GBD, which of these nine do you focus on?

00:10:58.180 Oh, I couldn't even tell you.

00:10:59.920 I mean, the reality of it is yesterday we're at the event, event, event.

00:11:05.960 And it's the last 15 minutes.

00:11:08.260 And everybody starts asking different questions.

00:11:10.900 This one kid asks a question.

00:11:11.920 So, Patrick, let me ask you.

00:11:13.920 If you were me, what would you invest in right now?

00:11:17.140 Would it be gold?

00:11:18.660 Would it be commodities?

00:11:20.120 Would it be futures?

00:11:21.740 Would it be stocks?

00:11:23.300 Would it be this?

00:11:24.140 Would it be Ethereum?

00:11:24.980 Would it be?

00:11:25.300 He's asking me all these questions.

00:11:27.300 And I'm like, how old are you?

00:11:29.260 Guy's like 18, 19 years old.

00:11:31.500 I said, how much money did you make last year?

00:11:34.740 He, how long does he take?

00:11:35.760 He goes like this.

00:11:36.720 There's 4,000 people in the room, by the way.

00:11:38.160 And I'm no joke that he goes, 10.

00:11:41.220 That's like, 10 what?

00:11:42.100 He says, I made $10,000 last year.

00:11:44.580 Living at home.

00:11:45.300 And I'm not making fun.

00:11:46.260 No, no.

00:11:47.020 He's 19 years old.

00:11:48.200 Yeah.

00:11:48.740 So I said, you're making $10,000 and you're asking me where to put your money with futures

00:11:52.700 and, you know, all this stuff.

00:11:54.900 I said, brother, what you need to fix is you have an income problem.

00:11:58.420 You don't have an investment problem.

00:11:59.720 You have an income problem.

00:12:00.420 Let's go fix that income problem that you have.

00:12:02.560 And look, I get it.

00:12:03.760 I was in the Army.

00:12:04.360 I got out of the Army as an Army E-4 specialist.

00:12:07.120 I was making 20 grand a year.

00:12:09.180 It's not a lot of money when you're making, you know, you're trying to find a way to increase

00:12:12.140 your income.

00:12:12.900 For people that are watching this, this is what's going on right now.

00:12:17.020 You have to ask yourself if, in what way this is impacting your income, what you're doing

00:12:23.380 to protect yourself from this.

00:12:25.280 You know, some people are kind of going through and then they're feeling it and there's seasons

00:12:29.160 to it that you're going through.

00:12:30.360 So I've always been from the school of thought of having cash.

00:12:33.620 I think the biggest reaction from last night's event was when I told the story about having

00:12:39.860 cash in place for opportunities.

00:12:42.280 There's nothing more evergreen than always making sure you have an emergency fund, always

00:12:48.980 making sure you have money in place, always making sure you live below your means, always

00:12:53.920 make it.

00:12:54.400 It's such an evergreen, boring concept to talk about, but it applies to everyone.

00:12:59.940 The more you can do that, like I remember when I was running an insurance company and let's

00:13:03.080 just say we only had $100,000 in the bank, just the first year, we got all the way down

00:13:07.160 to $13,000.

00:13:08.340 The way I would look at $100,000 is I have 100 $1,000 decisions to make.

00:13:15.180 I have only 10 $10,000 decisions to make.

00:13:19.020 I have only four $25,000 decisions to make.

00:13:21.940 So I'm like, oh, this is kind of scary, right?

00:13:23.920 So if you got 10 grand in a bank and you're trying to do your thing with your husband,

00:13:28.240 your wife, your kids, your family, like, dude, I only have 10 $1,000 decisions to make.

00:13:33.060 I only have 50 $200 decisions.

00:13:35.920 That's not a lot.

00:13:37.480 So you got to make sure you do whatever you can to increase your savings.

00:13:40.180 And if it means living below your means and talking to the family about that trip that

00:13:44.020 you were going to spend $4,000 that you shouldn't, don't.

00:13:47.020 Save that money right now while you're going through it.

00:13:50.500 Nothing excites me more than when I'm out there and I watch people wearing future looks

00:13:55.440 bright gear.

00:13:56.100 It's getting bigger and it's getting now to a lot of different places, which is fantastic.

00:14:00.180 And ladies, you've been asking for it. 1.00

00:14:02.700 You've been talking to VT Merge and the team's been listening to you.

00:14:05.440 Spring Collection is here.

00:14:06.800 Now we have some of this active wear hats for those of you that work out that you want

00:14:11.280 something lighter, your runners, but you still want to represent the vitamin gear.

00:14:15.160 We have it in many different colors, you know, yellow, you got them in pink, you got them

00:14:19.760 in baby blue, you got them in the Tiffany blue color, you got them in all these other

00:14:23.560 things that are here.

00:14:24.500 And for some of you, what did you call this, Rob?

00:14:27.260 There was a name for this, Rob, Tom, what do you know?

00:14:30.060 Active wear.

00:14:30.760 Active wear.

00:14:31.360 But this hat here, for some that like this style, this is out as well.

00:14:35.760 Some of you guys asked for it.

00:14:37.120 And then the shirts.

00:14:38.080 I'm telling you, the material of these shirts when you put them on is unreal.

00:14:43.420 Unreal, the material, when you feel it and you put it on.

00:14:46.240 This is a new one that came in future looks bright with the logo on the front.

00:14:49.020 We got the sweater that's here as well.

00:14:52.420 Navy blue.

00:14:53.860 Future looks bright. 0.88

00:14:55.640 The material is ridiculous.

00:14:57.720 Honestly, the material to me is unbelievable. 0.96

00:14:58.900 Look at that.

00:14:59.620 Did you see these?

00:15:00.300 Those are good.

00:15:00.900 I tried to get one of these, but he said they don't have my size yet.

00:15:04.160 You'll get us medium one of these days.

00:15:05.500 No, I get large, homie.

00:15:06.340 I get large, homie.

00:15:07.160 You're not large.

00:15:07.780 Rob, is this on the web?

00:15:08.560 Can you see if this is on the website?

00:15:10.000 It is.

00:15:10.880 Can you go to the gold one?

00:15:11.880 Right there.

00:15:12.360 Oh my goodness.

00:15:13.220 Looking sick.

00:15:13.760 And it's not just screen printed.

00:15:14.900 Those are like thick letters.

00:15:16.360 Yeah, it pops off the shirt.

00:15:17.740 Yeah, it's great.

00:15:19.500 And then on the back, you've got the value taming gear.

00:15:22.280 Go to vtmurch.com.

00:15:23.680 Place your order.

00:15:24.400 We want a million of us wearing this everywhere we go.

00:15:28.680 If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this, click here.

00:15:31.420 And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.

00:15:34.200 Next episode, bye.

00:15:39.680 Bye.

00:15:39.920 Bye.

00:15:40.160 Bye.

00:15:40.720 Bye.

00:15:42.700 Bye.

00:15:42.980 Bye.

00:15:43.300 Bye.

00:15:43.840 Bye.

00:15:44.800 Bye.

00:15:45.220 Bye.

00:15:45.340 Bye.

00:15:45.580 Bye.

00:15:46.340 Bye.

00:15:46.500 Bye.

00:15:47.480 Bye.

00:15:47.560 Bye.

00:15:50.220 Bye.

00:15:50.560 Bye.

00:15:51.360 Bye.

00:15:52.220 Bye.

00:15:52.420 Bye.

00:15:53.660 Bye.

00:15:58.580 Bye.

00:16:03.360 Bye.

Valuetainment - March 27, 2025

“Diaper Rash Indicator” – 9 SHOCKING Recession Signs Suggest A MAJOR Economic Collapse Is Coming

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