"Disney’s A**hole Move" - Disney vs YouTube TV WAR Could SHAKE UP Streaming Forever
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
196.1931
Summary
Disney content could be pulled from YouTube TV this week. Here's what's going on, and why it's a big deal. (1:00:00) What's the deal with Disney and YouTube TV? (4:00): What are they trying to get away from? (7:00). (11:00), What are their concerns? (14:00.) (16:00); (17:00)!
Transcript
00:00:00.000
Disney content could be pulled from YouTube TV this week.
00:00:07.500
and Tom's going to break this down, which is quite interesting,
00:00:10.700
the challenge that they're having with YouTube.
00:00:14.400
So YouTube TV and Disney Carriage deal expires Thursday night at 11.59 p.m.,
00:00:21.260
which is tomorrow, meaning if a deal is not made before,
00:00:24.040
then Disney content could be removed from the streaming service.
00:00:27.100
YouTube has accused Disney of proposing cost to economic terms
00:00:30.060
that would hike prices and lessen choices for YouTube TV customers
00:00:34.420
while benefiting Disney's own live TV products like Hulu, Live TV, and others.
00:00:39.680
Soon, Fubu, YouTube said if Disney content is unavailable for an extended period of time,
00:00:44.620
a $20 credit will be given to YouTube TV subscribers.
00:00:48.480
Meanwhile, Disney has claimed that YouTube parent company, Google,
00:00:51.740
is exploiting its position at the expense of their own customers.
00:00:57.100
ABC and ESPN are on the chopping block, according to Disney,
00:01:01.220
which noted in a statement YouTube subscribers could lose access to NFL college football,
00:01:08.660
15 percent, this is the increase in viewership,
00:01:11.820
Disney's network and YouTube TV households year over year,
00:01:27.380
People are not interested in seeing a, you know,
00:01:31.860
all of the themes and stuff that gets pushed on you through Disneyland
00:01:47.640
So Disney owns Hulu that directly competes with YouTube TV.
00:01:51.620
And we know these are over the top, meaning you can get them anywhere.
00:01:57.800
And you can go on your laptop, your phone, and get Hulu or YouTube TV.
00:02:01.460
So both YouTube and Disney, the owner of Hulu, are trying to get our dollars for our $50, $60, $70 a month,
00:02:19.000
And in the middle of college sports season, in the middle of the fall, with so many things going on,
00:02:27.560
YouTube TV has generated 15% increase in viewership for Disney.
00:02:33.640
And YouTube is paying for the content fair and square.
00:02:37.060
And now Disney is coming up going, hey, boy, you addicted that heroin.
00:02:42.900
And Disney is trying to raise what's called carriage rates or channel inclusion rates or the licensing rate.
00:02:55.900
And when we renew the agreement, we'll negotiate in good faith.
00:02:58.820
And YouTube TV paid a bunch of money to the NFL to bring Sunday tickets.
00:03:03.280
So YouTube is trying to operate an alternative to cable.
00:03:07.600
In the process, it has to compete with Disney, who owns Hulu.
00:03:14.140
Because Disney has bought so many channels and has so much content.
00:03:24.920
I think Disney's in the wrong here because they're trying to leverage.
00:03:27.560
YouTube TV grew and gave 15% more viewership to Disney.
00:03:48.220
Are they trying to renegotiate a license at a higher cost, at a higher number?
00:03:53.240
I don't know what the percent is, but the renewals is what's coming.
00:04:04.260
So they want to get away from YouTube and just go put it on Hulu.
00:04:06.760
And if you people are upset that you've lost your ESPN on YouTube TV, come over to Hulu.
00:04:11.720
Because remember, the days are over where someone has to come to your house and switch the box.
00:04:20.780
I think Disney right here is in the middle, is in the wrong.
00:04:35.300
But right now, what Disney is trying to do is protect Hulu and make YouTube pay more for all the Disney channels.
00:04:42.560
And YouTube is kind of digging in a little bit, saying Neil Mohan, our friend.
00:04:47.160
And when I say that, we don't have coffee every week, but we like what he's doing.
00:04:52.280
And he's out there fighting the fight, trying to get people a fair, reasonable, economic choice in YouTube TV.
00:05:11.280
So me and Humberto watch Red Zone every weekend.
00:05:13.720
And you can literally stream YouTube TV onto the TV and then do stuff on your phone while it's streaming there.
00:05:18.960
So you could watch videos on your phone while it's streaming onto a TV.
00:05:24.540
And it's only $90 a month, which used to be like $500 for the year to watch Red Zone.
00:05:37.340
But he's also paying for the NFL on YouTube, the all-in package.
00:05:42.320
There's also $35 and $40 packs for average Americans.
00:05:49.060
So now what Disney is threatening them is for that $20, we're going to drive it to Hulu.
00:05:55.680
And that $90, YouTube is going to make $70 a month.
00:05:58.520
Which I get it, but I don't know why they made that deal in the first place.
00:06:01.500
So I sent Rob this chart because Disney bought Hulu because they're getting crushed by YouTube in terms of streaming.
00:06:08.100
And this chart makes it look like YouTube is the future of TV.
00:06:11.300
Once it makes it user-friendly to watch, to stream on a TV for old people, that's going to be the future of TV is YouTube TV.
00:06:18.240
So I don't know why Disney would have made that deal in the first place.
00:06:20.660
Where did Disney leave off of before they started their OTT?
00:06:25.620
No, no, no, but when did Disney start their OTT?
00:06:28.620
Rob, can you pull up, what year did Disney start their OTT?
00:06:42.020
They created Disney Plus for their own content.
00:06:44.580
And then they owned part of Hulu, but so did AT&T, so did Providence Equity, so did Comcast.
00:06:52.760
Actually, there's a very funny clip that I did, which is Brooker.
00:06:55.460
Do you remember when Brooker broke down how Disney bought Hulu?
00:07:01.000
Bit by bit, price by price, they paid billions.
00:07:06.380
Yeah, what I'm saying is, Tom, where Disney Plus was on before was on Netflix.
00:07:11.160
So where I'm going with this is they had a deal with Netflix from 2012 to 2019.
00:07:16.940
Disney is doing the same exact thing today that they did in 2019 to Netflix.
00:07:24.740
They're sitting there saying, why the hell are we giving Netflix a $100 billion valuation?
00:07:29.720
If you remember when Disney Plus announced it was the fastest OTT coming out overnight,
00:07:34.940
everybody's like, wait a minute, I watched Disney on Netflix.
00:07:39.640
What is Disney Plus OTT valuation at right now, Rob?
00:07:52.080
Oh, I think YouTube is going to crush all these guys.
00:07:53.760
But to me, there was Hulu and then they put it together.
00:08:03.880
What I'm asking is, how many total subscribers does Disney Plus have right now?
00:08:14.480
Yeah, what is their valuation right now today and how many subscribers do they have?
00:08:19.080
So they're bullying YouTube the way they did to Netflix.
00:08:31.700
I would guesstimate that's a low number for that OTT, if you ask me.
00:08:36.920
I think if you go to Netflix, what is Netflix's total number of subscribers?
00:08:41.720
If you can just ask the same exact question, just change it to Netflix.
00:08:54.180
300 million subscribers at a $494 billion market cap.
00:08:58.860
So they got 128 million subscribers at only a $29 billion market cap.
00:09:04.980
So to me, I think if Disney replaces Bob Iger, they bring a new CEO, they change things up,
00:09:11.940
and they go back to being away from woke, I think Disney's a value stock, my opinion.
00:09:16.720
I think Disney, over the next five to 10 years, if you're buying Disney for 10 years,
00:09:25.360
But how do you know they won't go back to woke?
00:09:26.520
Well, but there's a risk in investing in certain stocks and companies, right?
00:09:32.080
But what Disney's doing right now, it's an asshole move.
00:09:36.420
But I understand their move because they're showing you they did this before.
00:09:40.940
Bob Iger did this where they pinned Netflix and they stepped away,
00:09:44.240
and he gained $30 billion of market cap when he went and built the OTT.
00:09:48.080
I think that's a very undervalued OTT that they have.
00:09:51.000
A guy like this, a Brandon, how many Brandons are there right now
00:09:55.040
that are watching Red Zone on Sundays, and they're on their phone
00:09:57.700
while they're seeing all the different games for $90 a month?
00:10:03.760
And yet, I'm being serious with you that I think Disney's,
00:10:10.380
I don't know if I've ever talked about this publicly,
00:10:12.180
but I was the third investor ever in Mr. Beast.
00:10:30.740
Pretty early on, a few years ago, three, four years ago.
00:10:33.620
This is when Reed announced that they're raising money,
00:10:45.380
Yeah, by the way, if anybody's watching this right now,
00:10:55.820
But now I can't invest because I'm in the government.
00:11:00.840
That guy's going to build something significant.
00:11:07.120
that it's already valued at $5 billion, around $5 billion.
00:11:19.560
with that one guy, he had all this other stuff,
00:11:39.840
Yeah, I think at one point it was at $380 billion.
00:11:48.620
No, just go back to the chart you're on and go to max.
00:12:03.040
So I think Disney, my opinion, if I sat on the board, Bob Iger, put him on the list of Hall
00:12:12.100
of Fame, he crushed it, he did some of the biggest deals ever with the assets that he
00:12:20.660
Go run to be the secretary of whatever for Newsom or whoever else that's going to run.
00:12:26.600
If you want to go be a president, I know you're a liberal.
00:12:28.580
I know you're on the left, and I know you support some of that stuff, even though I
00:12:37.020
Bob wanted to run for office at one point when he was talking to News Corp, and they
00:12:40.940
were asking him, I think Murdoch or one of those guys asked him, saying he wouldn't run
00:12:44.240
He talks about it in his book, Right of a Lifetime.
00:12:53.040
If Disney recruits a Brian Nichol, I think Disney within five to ten years is a trillion
00:13:03.820
Could be a game changer, but are they going to let, is Iger going to let them hire somebody
00:13:09.120
He doesn't have a choice, because Kathleen Kennedy is about to get fired.
00:13:12.620
Kathleen Kennedy, who was the person behind all the LGBTQ stuff, she's not getting fired,
00:13:18.280
but they said her contract comes to an end January 1st of 2026.
00:13:21.540
Can you tell me, when is the last day her contract ends when?
00:13:28.960
Yeah, I think they're calling it retired, and I think the Hollywood Reporter called it
00:13:34.520
End of 2025, her contract is done with Lucasfilms.
00:13:38.800
She was the woke leftist, LGBT, I even think one of her kids is part of the LGBTQ, so she
00:13:44.700
was extremely protective on Zooms talking about candidates and all this other stuff.
00:13:48.700
Okay, so you get rid of her, but what about the others?
00:13:49.860
I mean, I don't know if you see the board of Disney, but isn't it pretty protectionist
00:13:53.860
No, there's a couple board members on Disney that own two or four billion dollars, some
00:13:59.500
of the biggest shareholders who are actually fighting the fight, and they're doing the
00:14:06.360
Not shareholders, but guys who have big stock in the company.
00:14:17.060
I know he's not, but he's a four billion dollar guy.
00:14:19.140
He owns a couple billion dollars of shares in it.
00:14:24.400
Rob, can you pull up who was the other person with Nelson Peltz that was going against Disney?
00:14:33.440
If you think about, are you freaking kidding me?
00:14:37.780
Netflix at 300 million subscribers is worth a half a trillion dollars.
00:14:44.100
And Disney Plus with 130 million subscribers is only worth 25 billion, and they're about
00:14:51.480
to cut and do to YouTube what they did to Netflix?
00:14:57.580
Tom, what's the likelihood Disney is negotiating with YouTube right now?
00:15:05.480
Let's say less than 5% that they're negotiating.
00:15:08.340
Yeah, the word you're looking for is legitimately negotiating.
00:15:13.020
They're like, oh no, no, we're at the bargaining table.
00:15:20.800
Brandon, in 2026, on his phone, is going to own Disney Plus.
00:15:31.160
Because I've got to own Hulu and all this other stuff.
00:15:34.140
And by the way, you know what I think is going to happen?
00:15:37.340
I've got to make a phone call after this meeting is what I've got to do.
00:15:45.300
130 million subscribers Disney's got right now.
00:15:52.780
YouTube goes from, Red Zone goes from 90 to 70 bucks a month.
00:16:06.260
So they got, right now, if you want to watch Red Zone, it's on YouTube.
00:16:16.200
Yeah, I think it's, I think we're at nine-digit impact.
00:16:34.200
And then they put the black screen on there and says,
00:16:41.880
And they'll put Fox five times on a black screen.
00:16:46.220
And it's like, and I'm saying Fox, but they've done the same thing, ABC.
00:16:50.000
It's like the cable guys are trying to put a package together and put it out there for you and me.
00:16:58.540
But what I'm most annoyed about, and I've already made my point, Pat, is that Disney owns Hulu and it's not playing fair on YouTube TV because it's, in my view, invoking monopolist position because of the scarcity of the one critical resource that Americans want.
00:17:18.620
So, you know, where's the Federal Trade Commission?
00:17:23.860
Yeah, this chart here, Brandon, if you want to talk on this chart.
00:17:26.940
Yes, I mean, this is really what we're talking about.
00:17:28.220
I'm going to go into the Federal Trade Commission and change my name to Attila.
00:17:31.400
So this is from 2022 to 2025, the streaming versus cable market share.
00:17:39.200
So just in three years, cable was at 35 in 2022, streaming was at 33.
00:17:44.460
But then three years later, it goes to 24 versus 44.
00:17:47.660
So that's the pace at which streaming is outpacing cable.
00:17:50.020
Then on the side column, it shows the top streaming platform.
00:17:53.300
So Netflix and YouTube are dominating, and then they start pulling away.
00:17:57.100
And then Disney Plus and Hulu get together, and they start catching up to Netflix and YouTube.
00:18:01.820
So, yeah, no, I totally understand why Hulu's doing what it's doing, and I'm surprised they let YouTube have NFL in the first place.
00:18:08.920
So, yeah, I mean, this is the future of TV, I think.
00:18:17.860
I am not currently a Disney shareholder, and I'll say I'm long YouTube.
00:18:25.400
But I'm well under a Form 4, so I'm not like push.
00:18:31.540
Not right now, because Disney – remember, Disney, you have to buy the whole flywheel.
00:18:35.660
When you buy the stock, you're buying the flywheel.
00:18:37.760
And right now, they're doing horrible things with management of pricing and things at the theme parks.
00:18:49.920
And so when you buy Disney, remember, you're buying the whole thing.
00:18:57.940
When you buy the stock, you buy the whole flywheel, the good, the bad, and the ugly.
00:19:06.920
I think Disney Plus alone – forget about everything else.
00:19:12.240
Do you think Disney Plus alone has the chance of going to 300 million subscribers like Netflix?
00:19:24.660
That means I don't give a shit what's in the flywheel.
00:19:27.980
Disney Plus alone has what it takes to be a half a trillion dollar company within the next five to ten years.
00:19:34.300
Two and a half times Disney's entire market cap today.
00:19:46.780
The only – Disney simply needs to bring a business person in with no woke bullshit.
00:19:58.760
Get the families to start trusting Disney again.
00:20:03.160
It's just people are on strike right now with Disney.
00:20:05.040
And that $199 billion valuation they have right now should be a half a trillion dollar valuation,
00:20:11.180
And I think eventually capitalists are going to show up and say, get your act together.
00:20:16.720
If you care so much about all the LGBTQ agenda, go run for office and do something about it.
00:20:20.960
Stop paying attention to the kids over here in the company.
00:20:23.540
Go do something else for yourself and not with a company like this.
00:20:28.440
All I'm saying is I'm making a phone call after this podcast.
00:20:31.640
This is why I'm a big fan of what people like Nelson Pels and what...
00:20:40.740
What Bill does with other companies, calling them out and calling them to deliver returns for shareholders.
00:20:46.400
They're not negotiating with like, hey, YouTube, YouTube is sitting there saying, you think we're dumb?
00:21:01.340
I am convinced this is going to be a very, very special year, in my opinion.
00:21:07.560
I think we got this other rate cut that's coming.
00:21:10.040
I think we're going to have three more in 2026, give or take, based on what Goldman Sachs and a lot of other people are saying.
00:21:14.660
We may even experience a new person that's running the Fed by June-ish.
00:21:19.580
I think June 26-ish, around that time, that could turn things around the second half of the year.
00:21:25.540
If the China-U.S. trade deal gets done, it could be an unbelievable day for the stock market.
00:21:32.200
However, all of that stuff going into 2026, what that means to you is nothing if you're not prepared for it going into 2026 with momentum.
00:21:41.920
So having said that, if you don't yet have a plan to write out a great business plan for yourself, your family, your executives, your employees, watch this video, Rob, if you have.
00:21:51.580
This is a video we shot of me going into a car, driving a car that goes 1.9 seconds, 0 to 60, and I also borrowed Vinny's old car to see.
00:22:04.660
Because we're testing to see the difference between a Prius on 0 to 60 and then versus the Tesla Plaid.
00:22:10.780
The owner was freaking out saying, I don't know if you can handle it or not.
00:22:13.160
I said, I've been driving fast cars for a very long time, but I want you to watch this video.
00:22:27.880
Behind me, I have a 2019 Toyota Corolla, and I have a Model S Tesla Plaid.
00:22:50.200
Any of these companies that eventually dominate their competitors, their edge isn't always just product.
00:23:17.360
So at this point, we know speed is critical in business.
00:23:20.320
The question becomes, with 2026 around the corner, it'll be here in no time.
00:23:24.460
How prepared are you going to be versus all your competitors?
00:23:28.280
Once here, I host an event called the Business Planning Workshop.
00:23:30.680
We'll recover the 12 building blocks on how to write a proper business plan that drives emotion and logic.
00:23:38.020
If you've never attended it, do whatever you can for you, your wife, your team to tune in together.
00:23:45.620
That's through a webinar, which means anybody from anywhere around the world can tune into the Business Planning Workshop.
00:23:54.620
If you haven't registered yet, click on the link below to get registered.
00:24:01.540
For some of you guys that are only listening to the audio, go to BPW.BitDavidConsulting.com.
00:24:11.660
We'll spend the day together on December 12th and make that the beginning of the greatest years of your life in 2026.
00:24:18.300
If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this, click here.
00:24:20.900
And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.