Episode 211: Is Cash Still King?
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Summary
For the longest time, if you talk to my dad, my friends, my family, everybody would say that Pat is very aggressive with his finances. I'll give you a couple stories here. If I went to Vegas and I had a couple hundred dollars, when I was 21 years old, I would lose $5,500 in one night. And by the way, I couldn't afford to lose $50,000 that night, but I lost $5500 that night.
Transcript
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30 seconds, one time for the underdog, ignition sequence start, let me see you put em up, reach
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the sky, turn the stars up above, cause it's one time for the underdog, one time for the
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I'm Patrick Bader, your host of Value Taming, and today we're going to talk about if cash
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For the longest time, if you talk to my dad, my friends, everybody would say, Pat is very
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One, if I went to Vegas, and I had a couple hundred dollars, this is when, in 21 years
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old, when I go to Vegas 26 times a year, if I go to Vegas, there would be nights where
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I would lose $5,500 in one night I lost, and by the way, I couldn't afford to lose 50 bucks,
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but I lost $5,500 that night, cause I would just go, double, double, double, double, it's
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gonna come back, this double, I'm gonna double, I'm gonna double, I lost 35, bet 70, I lost
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70, bet 140, bet 140, bet 280, 280, 560, 560, thousand, 20, thousand, 20, 2,000, boom, I
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I'd buy penny stocks, because I would sit there and I bought a Nike stock once, and I bought
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it at 27, it went to 41, and I said, oh my gosh, I just made this much money.
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And then another guy turned me on into a penny stock, and he said, dude, forget about this
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If you buy it at six cents, if this thing goes to $2, you just, your money just went
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33X, you put $10,000, that's $330,000, this one kid in our high school took $10,000 from
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his dad, turned it into $160,000 based on penny stocks, everybody was talking about, I'm gonna
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be the next penny stock guy, so we're all going for the marbles.
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Now, once I lost everything, and I hit rock bottom, and I realized, this whole aggressive
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thing, Pat, where you think no one can get in your way, you may need to readjust your
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And this office space I'm looking for, I wanted a nice office space, I knew the city, I liked
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San Fernando Valley in California, I wanted to be closer to Woodland Hills, right after
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101 Freeway, I liked that shopping center with, what was the movie theater across the street,
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I don't know if it was AMC, P.F. Changs, or just a great spot.
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And so Marriott was right there, I said, I want a building right here.
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So my realtor finds a location, he says, Pat, you're gonna love this thing.
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I said, I want a deal, I'm not paying full price.
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First of all, you could tell whoever that leased this place out, spent hundreds of thousands
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And then you walk in, the conference room glass, you press a button, you know, you would
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have these curtains that would close for privacy.
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You would have a drop down with the projector that would come out.
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As you make a right, there's a presentation wall with glass inside where you can put your
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trophies and recognitions you got from Congress and Senate and all these other people.
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And then you walk in and then you go into the office, the CEO's office.
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I looked at it and said, you've got to be kidding me.
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I couldn't believe the fact they accepted the offer.
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And I started investigating who this person is.
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And eventually I have to call on people around and say, well, this guy had $2 billion plus
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Every cash he had, he would buy commercial properties.
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He had a lot of locations in Dallas, Phoenix, I think in California, and a few in Chicago.
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He said, I'm going to be the Trump of SoCal and I'll be a billionaire.
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Everything he had, every cash, was all into real estate.
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So I sat and I looked at this thing and I said, wow.
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Here's a person that's making a run of being a billionaire.
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He was living in a house, 30,000 square foot house with a casino inside his house.
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When I say casino, I'm not talking about two tables, a full-on casino.
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This is a rich man, as we're talking about, right?
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So I came back and our lives, your life, my life is for you to learn from me, for you to
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learn from your parents, me to learn from my parents, for us to constantly be watching
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everybody and see what things we can learn to pick up, to do right and to do wrong.
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And Charlie Munger many times would say inversion.
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Look, he would always talk about the mistakes he made with his kids.
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And mistakes other people made more than the things that people did right.
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So I sat there and I said, that stayed with my mind saying, Pat, cash is very critical,
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but you've got to know when you're making a run for all the marbles, your strategy.
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You've got to trust some of the principles you have in place.
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So with that being said, I've got a few items here I want to show you so you can be thinking
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about when it comes down to, is cash still king today?
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Right behind me, I have all the dates of history of recessions we've had in America.
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Now a lot of times people say, Pat, what's a recession?
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You know, sometimes we don't even know what a recession or depression, it's actually very
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Recession is when a nation has a wide economic decline that lasts six months or more.
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When the market's kind of going like this, six months, it's a recession.
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If it goes for several years, three to five years, it becomes a depression.
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That's why we've only had one depression in the history of America.
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Now, knowing that, how many recessions have we had in America?
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Since 1854, we have had 33 different recessions.
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33 and 164 years, which means one every five years, we have a recession.
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1945, we had a recession, it lasted eight months.
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57, we had a recession, it lasted eight months.
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1980 to 82, we had two recessions during that period.
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So we have two of them that are ten years here.
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If it would have got another six, 12, 24 months, that would have been a depression, but it was
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We have not had a recession, folks, for nearly nine years.
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Probably, could happen today, but in the next six to 24 months, we're going to experience
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Now, this is the challenge that we're facing here.
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There are people who think Bitcoin is forever going to go up, and I'm going to make my billions,
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and this is how I'm going to be on the cover of Forbes magazine, being the richest person
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There are people that think, you know, the real estate market is going to be perfectly
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Let me put everything I have into the real estate market.
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Now, if you go long term and you average it out, real estate's going to give you somewhere
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between four to six percent if you go long, long term.
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If you go long term and average it out with the stock market, you'll see between eight
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to 12 percent, depending on how the market does, right?
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But regardless of what I'm telling you, if in the back of your mind, this concept of,
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I used to think everything was about positivity, until I realized, I am very positive and optimistic
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about things I have control over, but things you don't have any control over, you can't
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I understand having faith, I understand praying, I understand having a higher law behind you,
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but you've got to be thinking about the what if, right?
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When you think about risk-taking, everybody falls somewhere in this category of risk-taking,
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You've got somebody that is so conservative, they will never do anything with their money,
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You can't even convince them to put in the bank, because they don't even trust the bank,
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because they believe Armageddon is around the corner.
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Typically it's our grandparents, and they're so afraid because of a lot of bad things that
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I believe in having some conservative balanced funds.
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Victorville, they're talking about California, that maybe it's becoming bigger because it's getting
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You know, I'm going to go for this, and I'm going to go for this, and I'm going to go
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And last but not least, this is just absolutely dumb category.
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This is the people that actually believe they can fly.
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You know, this is like, what was that one song, Mario, by R. Kelly?
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R. Kelly had a song, and it went something like this.
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By the way, this is how he would sing if he was singing to these types of people when they
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Because that's what happens to these guys that think everything is possible.
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I'm very comfortable trusting a plane to fly me to another place.
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I don't mind a plane flying me over the ocean to go to India.
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Do I trust myself to go jump off the top of a tower saying, listen, I'm such a positive,
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optimistic guy that I'm going to do this thing so fast that I'm going to fly?
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Even R. Kelly's not right when he's saying that song.
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I'm going to say this quote very slowly and hopefully it resonates.
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What sells doesn't always work and what works doesn't always sell.
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Well, what sells, imagine if I get up and I sell you a concept.
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This is what we're going to do and ta-ta-ta-ta-ta-ta.
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I sell it so good, but it doesn't necessarily work.
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And there's another thing that works, but it's so tough to sell, okay?
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It's so tough to sell because people say, no, that's boring.
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Try to know and set aside your emotions and be able to process everything logically and
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Or, dude, this guy's just trying to sell me, man.
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He's got a nice salesman smile and he looks very good.
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I'm just not buying your bullshit because what sells doesn't always work.
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You've got to know how to decipher between the two.
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Typically, the way you learn how to do this is after a lot of people take advantage of
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you, then you start having that eye and say, let me watch everything out there.
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Remember how I talked about all this recession that took place?
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In 2009, when the market crashed, here's what took place.
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Imagine if you could buy that stock on that, if you had some cash sitting inside.
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Think about if you could buy 10,000 shares at a buck?
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Nine years later, you would have had 110,000 dollars.
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I'm showing you these things because this is not a 6% return.
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The 6% return means it takes 12 years for your money to double.
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But this happens if you anticipate a recession's about to come up.
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So having said that, let me show you some companies here that have the most cash.
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Apple, $261 billion of cash is what they're sitting on.
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And by the way, this is from a Business Insider article, which was December of 2017.
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Apple today, give or take, they're at $285 billion today.
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And by the way, I'm not even talking about the offshore dollars that they find out how
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I'm talking money in America that they have to report because they're public companies.
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And by the way, something for you to be thinking about.
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It's a completely different topic, but watch this here.
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They did $485 billion in top-line revenue last year.
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That's more than Apple and Amazon combined on their top-line revenue.
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This is why Walmart is so worried about Amazon.
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Walmart needs 2.3 million employees to function.
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Amazon only needs $341,000, and Apple only needs $123,000, and they got $285 billion in cash.
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For all these people that say you shouldn't have a lot of cash, do you think the people
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in the boardroom of Apple that say, man, let's have a lot of cash.
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You think Google guys, Sergey, and all these guys?
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Now, why are they stashing so much cash away today?
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Probably because they're anticipating a recession to come up.
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And when this recession comes up, they're hoping a recession comes up, because when the recession
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comes up, some of the companies that make bad mistakes, they can pick them up on $0.40
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And that's how they keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger, because they have cash.
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On this risk factor here, I want you to know, Mario, I'm going to go back and come back.
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I don't want you to think, I am telling you to be here.
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By the way, if you do want to be extremely wealthy one day, if you do want to be possibly
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a deca-millionaire, a hundred, maybe even the B word, you do need to be kind of here.
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You have to take some risks that maybe have a very big risk.
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But at the same time, I'm not a fan of people who recommend saying, only keep 5% and out
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of your million dollars, 50 of it keep cash, everything else, put it invested.
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If, based on what I showed you, this is not a myth.
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These are not, well, could have, hypothetically.
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If you look at this, you be the judge of it based on where you're at on that risk side.
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When do you think a recession is going to take place?
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Because in your mind, you wanted to go for another seven years where the market keeps going
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Or are you thinking back there saying, hmm, I think something's about to happen.
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The people that I'm talking about, they're not scared about it.
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This thing's been going and delaying for eight, nine years.
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Now, this is not me projecting and saying, I can't wait for another one to happen.
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I've been going 11 top line revenues quarter as a company.
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But the message I'm giving to you is, realize, cash is still king.
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Don't listen to the R. Kelly song thinking you can fly.
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But sit there and strategize yourself to say, oh my gosh.
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In the next year, two years, three years, five years, something could happen.
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And then when it does, oh my goodness, I'm going to capitalize.
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Somebody said, well, Pat, isn't this kind of deceptive?
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Because somebody's sliding and hitting their back and other people laughing at them.
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And then people wonder why so few people are wealthy.
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Very, very wealthy, successful investors fully embrace this concept.
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The question is, are you going to embrace the concept?
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Are you still going to be way too optimistic about the fact that everything's going to work out?
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Because if this is right, in the last seven years, the longest time we've gone without a recession has been ten years.
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So we've got one more year until recession comes.
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And by the way, if you haven't already subscribed to Valuetainment on iTunes, please do so.
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And if you have any questions for me that you may have, you can always find me on Snapchat, Instagram, Facebook, or YouTube.
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And I actually do respond back when you snap me or send me a message on Instagram.