Valuetainment - August 14, 2019


Episode 355： US Ambassador To Mexico Talks Trade War And Border


Episode Stats

Length

33 minutes

Words per Minute

179.02464

Word Count

6,024

Sentence Count

404

Hate Speech Sentences

15


Summary

Tony Wayne is a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico and former ambassador to Argentina. In this episode, Tony talks about how important Mexico is to the United States, the border crisis, and the impact of the trade war between the two countries.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 I'm Patrick Bedevi, host of Ayutem, and today's guest is Tony Wayne, former U.S. ambassador
00:00:20.980 to Mexico and U.S. ambassador to Argentina.
00:00:23.160 We're going to talk about trade war and the border.
00:00:25.460 Tony, thanks for being a guest on Ayutem.
00:00:27.740 It's great to be with you, Patrick.
00:00:28.800 Yes, good to have you.
00:00:29.780 So, Tony, as somebody who was a former ambassador yourself to Mexico, what is your take on all
00:00:35.860 these things that's going on with U.S. and Mexico tariffs?
00:00:38.400 We're not going to do tariffs.
00:00:39.480 We're going to do tariffs.
00:00:40.540 What are your thoughts on that?
00:00:42.100 Well, it's an opportunity to learn how important Mexico is to the United States.
00:00:47.860 I mean, that's one thing that strikes you when you've been when I've been following this for
00:00:52.460 the past couple of years.
00:00:53.560 I mean, we trade one million dollars a minute with Mexico.
00:00:57.700 Per minute.
00:00:58.200 Per minute.
00:00:58.800 We have a million crossings of the border every day.
00:01:04.280 We have a relationship across that 2,000-mile border that means that Mexico is a country that
00:01:11.040 touches the lives of more Americans than any other country every day, each day.
00:01:17.300 And people don't really understand that until you get into a crisis.
00:01:22.240 And then you see how much we need to work together to solve the problems that are there and to
00:01:29.880 maintain all the important benefits we're getting in this relationship.
00:01:33.860 So what is your interpretation of what President Donald Trump's challenge is with the border?
00:01:38.920 Well, there are a couple of different challenges at the border across, of course.
00:01:42.860 There are the migrants that's from Central America that have been coming.
00:01:47.300 That is a real challenge.
00:01:48.740 It is an emergency.
00:01:50.160 They've started coming in family units in unprecedented numbers, and they've surprised everybody by
00:01:56.600 how many are coming.
00:01:57.440 Sure.
00:01:57.940 Now, we can talk about the reasons for that, but we do need to have a better management of
00:02:02.820 it, and we just can't absorb that many.
00:02:05.080 Neither can Mexico, which is part of the reason why they're coming through.
00:02:08.960 They've overwhelmed their capacity also.
00:02:11.460 Secondly, we have a problem of the drug trafficking that does take place across the border.
00:02:18.740 And we have the profits from that trafficking that go back to Mexico, often in the form of
00:02:24.100 guns that they bought to take back to be used by the cartels in Mexico.
00:02:28.640 The profits of the trafficking that they do in U.S., they get the money from here and that
00:02:32.960 goes back to Mexico.
00:02:33.960 Is that what you're saying?
00:02:34.960 That does.
00:02:35.960 The estimates are they make 19 to 29, 30 billion dollars a year selling those drugs in the
00:02:43.040 United States.
00:02:44.400 Then a lot of that goes back to Mexico to the cartels to fuel their operations.
00:02:50.840 19 to 20 billion?
00:02:52.280 That's right.
00:02:53.280 And it goes back to Mexico.
00:02:54.480 And it goes back to Mexico.
00:02:57.020 And so one of the challenges is handling the illicit commerce in both directions.
00:03:03.940 And that means you have to go after supply for sure, but you have to go after demand also.
00:03:09.020 Got it.
00:03:10.020 You have to try and bring that demand down in the United States.
00:03:12.380 And that's what would be a big help to us because we have all these addiction deaths
00:03:16.160 in the United States, which we don't want.
00:03:18.020 We've got to do that.
00:03:19.220 And then in Mexico, all this money fuels the violence that they've been plagued by and the
00:03:24.820 rising homicides in that country.
00:03:27.900 So the tariff that President Trump put on Mexico that was, you know, taken out fairly
00:03:34.900 quickly, it didn't last a long time.
00:03:35.900 It lasted, I think, the lifespan of the tariff, I don't even know if it was a couple of months.
00:03:38.900 It didn't even go into effect.
00:03:39.900 Yeah, it didn't even go into effect.
00:03:40.900 So do you think the intention of wanting to have a tariff was to say, because, you know,
00:03:45.580 on the campaign he said, Mexico is going to pay for the wall.
00:03:48.240 Do you think it's his way of saying Mexico paid for the wall?
00:03:51.420 Or do you think it's more of trying to focus on protecting the border, asking Mexico, what
00:03:55.660 can you do to fix the immigration problem of coming here?
00:03:59.020 What do you think yourself?
00:04:00.020 I think he was trying to get Mexico's attention to be better at helping fix the number of migrants
00:04:05.620 headed north.
00:04:06.620 Okay.
00:04:07.620 So it's very simple.
00:04:08.620 You don't think you don't read into it, thinking there's anything more than that.
00:04:10.620 Well, that's why I think he did that.
00:04:12.120 Now, he previously also said, I'm going to shut the border down.
00:04:16.040 And sometimes in some of his statements, he's linked it to drug trafficking also.
00:04:20.640 But basically he was trying to get attention.
00:04:22.860 I believe this is getting out of hand.
00:04:25.620 Let's fix it.
00:04:26.860 Now the problem with that tactic is that he also panics a lot of American businessmen and
00:04:34.280 a lot of American consumers because we are so dependent on building things together.
00:04:40.820 I mean, half of all our trade with Mexico are intermediate goods.
00:04:45.080 They go into a final product either in the United States or Mexico.
00:04:49.280 And then the other half are final things, but they're consumed in both countries.
00:04:53.680 So if you actually put those tariffs on, you would be taxing U.S. businesses and U.S. consumers,
00:05:02.360 as well as hurting Mexicans.
00:05:04.240 So everybody would really be paying the price.
00:05:07.320 So the bottom line is it's very good that we did not go on that path.
00:05:12.640 But you still have a lot of business people who are very worried about the unpredictability
00:05:18.880 of this situation.
00:05:19.880 And you know, since you produce and talk to, talk with entrepreneurs all the time, what they
00:05:25.940 crave is knowing the rules, knowing the situation so they can make their planning, they can invest,
00:05:32.940 they can take their innovative steps if they want to, but they're not going to get knocked
00:05:37.260 around by changes in government rules.
00:05:39.620 Yeah.
00:05:40.620 It's funny you say that.
00:05:41.620 We were talking to a friend of mine who runs a restaurant.
00:05:43.620 It's a very good sized restaurant.
00:05:45.180 They do 20 million years.
00:05:46.180 So it's not a small restaurant.
00:05:47.720 And I said, how much is this tariff, this conflict we're having with U.S.-Mexico affecting
00:05:51.700 you?
00:05:52.700 He says, a lot.
00:05:53.700 I said, tell me more.
00:05:54.700 Tell me what you mean by that.
00:05:55.700 He says, tomatoes, onions.
00:05:56.900 He started getting into this.
00:05:57.900 He says, we feel the pain.
00:05:58.900 He says, because five pennies or even two pennies fell on 20,000 pounds a month, that
00:06:04.500 can end up being money.
00:06:06.380 So it's interesting you say that because I know the entrepreneurs are affected by it.
00:06:09.260 So how different is our relationship with Mexico that we had a little bit of a challenge
00:06:14.880 with different than the relationship we have with China?
00:06:17.280 Because there's trade issues going both places.
00:06:20.500 What's the difference between Mexico versus China to you?
00:06:23.500 Well, first, I think Canada and Mexico have been our number one and number three export
00:06:30.320 markets.
00:06:31.320 China is number two.
00:06:33.320 China, U.S., Mexico and Canada have been number one.
00:06:36.620 And number two.
00:06:37.700 Because they're neighbors.
00:06:38.700 They're right next to us.
00:06:39.700 And then China is right there in between.
00:06:41.200 Got it.
00:06:42.200 Now, Mexico has actually become number one this year because of the problems with China.
00:06:47.060 But the difference, there are a couple of differences.
00:06:49.400 One is we build things with Canada and Mexico.
00:06:53.100 We don't do that with China.
00:06:55.900 So for example, a car coming back from Mexico that looks like a Mexican car, really 40% of
00:07:04.400 that car is American product, American input.
00:07:08.580 The car was coming in from China, 4% might be American product.
00:07:13.060 So there's a real difference.
00:07:14.360 And then if it was Canada, 25% or 20%.
00:07:18.920 So the difference is we make things together with our neighbors.
00:07:22.060 We don't do that with China.
00:07:24.080 The other thing is we don't have the problem with intellectual property theft that we have
00:07:28.820 with China with our two neighbors.
00:07:30.680 They respect our intellectual property.
00:07:33.660 We've had these rules under the NAFTA trade agreement since the early 1990s.
00:07:39.600 We've had problems, but we've worked them through.
00:07:42.140 We have a really smooth relationship.
00:07:44.760 And the private sector has built these big networks of trade for lettuce, avocados, other
00:07:50.720 things.
00:07:51.720 But for cars, for building things together.
00:07:53.780 That's different with China.
00:07:55.840 We do have in some of the high tech areas and iPhones and other things, we do have that
00:08:00.300 kind of relationship.
00:08:02.860 But more of that is put together with Chinese products.
00:08:06.200 The intellectual property is US intellectual property.
00:08:09.660 But that's where you get into the problem of China not respecting intellectual property,
00:08:15.140 stealing it.
00:08:16.140 Right.
00:08:17.140 Trying to make it, turn it into its own industry, thus turning it into a more of a predatory
00:08:22.820 relationship.
00:08:24.320 So it sounds like you are for what President Trump is doing to China right now to re-cut
00:08:28.940 a new deal on the tariffs, whether it has to do with us not having to share our intellectual
00:08:33.160 property with them due to their new Made in China 25 plan that they have.
00:08:37.320 It sounds like you're almost for what he's doing.
00:08:39.080 Well, I'm certainly for dealing forcefully with the Chinese.
00:08:42.940 You are.
00:08:43.940 You are for dealing forcefully with the Chinese.
00:08:45.320 To get there, to get them to pay attention, to change their practices.
00:08:49.960 What you have to do is you've got to balance that very carefully, because there's a lot
00:08:54.200 of pain that comes with this at the same time.
00:08:56.900 Our farmers, for example, lost a lot of markets, and the combination of having disputes with
00:09:03.640 Canada, Mexico, and China together hurt the farmers of the United States and the Midwest
00:09:09.400 tremendously.
00:09:10.400 Those were their biggest export markets.
00:09:12.400 Record-breaking bankruptcies that we haven't had for over a decade.
00:09:15.440 That's right.
00:09:16.440 You have to measure the tools you're going to use, but the costs of using those tools.
00:09:20.900 What does that mean?
00:09:22.380 That means I probably would not have put tariffs as large tariffs.
00:09:26.680 I would have looked for other ways to increase pressure.
00:09:29.780 I would have rallied other trading partners to join us in pressuring China.
00:09:35.880 How would you do that?
00:09:36.880 Well, I would do it by working with them to get them, show them what they're losing to.
00:09:43.900 I would have explored, what are you willing to do?
00:09:46.940 We're willing to up these tariffs, do this.
00:09:49.360 Are you willing to do something similar to increase the pressures?
00:09:52.360 I would have explored that.
00:09:53.360 But doesn't it sound like they don't want to do that?
00:09:55.360 I would have tried to build a coalition.
00:09:56.360 Well, we haven't really forcefully explored that.
00:09:59.580 I think we've gone about this as the US versus China.
00:10:03.340 Now you can do that, but there are costs to doing that.
00:10:05.840 No doubt about it.
00:10:06.840 That's all I'm saying.
00:10:07.840 Worst thing that can happen.
00:10:08.840 So take us to the worst place.
00:10:11.340 So we're talking worst place on what could happen between the US and China relationship
00:10:15.680 when it comes down to trade.
00:10:16.840 Well, the worst place is that we pull down a new shade.
00:10:21.020 Not quite an iron curtain, but a trade curtain where our trade goes way down.
00:10:27.520 We have different partners in the rest of the world.
00:10:30.520 We trade with those partners, but it's no longer part of a free-flowing, unified market.
00:10:38.840 And you don't get the benefits of that more free and fair trade.
00:10:43.700 And so that would be, I think, the worst outcome.
00:10:46.020 You sort of move into two different spheres of influence.
00:10:49.660 The best outcome would be we get to an understanding of what the best practices are for trade.
00:10:58.840 And, you know, we don't like each other wonderfully, maybe.
00:11:02.340 We disagree on democracy, other practices.
00:11:05.500 But we still have a strong interaction between our economies that builds on the strength of
00:11:12.200 each economy.
00:11:13.200 Do you think it's really going to be a deal where it's going to be 50-50 where both benefits
00:11:17.260 from each other evenly?
00:11:19.260 Or do you think right now, you know, President Trump's trying to strike a deal that's more
00:11:23.160 benefiting US versus it is China?
00:11:25.160 Well, I'm sure he's trying to get the best deal he can, which means he'd like to get
00:11:29.400 more benefit from the US.
00:11:31.360 I don't know where it's going to come out, really.
00:11:33.760 But what I do know is the worst outcome would be that we don't solve the problems.
00:11:39.560 We sort of divide the world up and we're competing all around the world, but we're not solving
00:11:44.200 the differences between us.
00:11:46.240 And one of the problems are we are going to have some serious differences on some military
00:11:52.760 geostrategic issues in the South China Sea.
00:11:56.780 We're going to have differences over our approach to democracy.
00:12:01.620 It's easier to solve some of those problems if you're not fighting about everything.
00:12:06.860 So if we can get to some understandings on international commerce that are mutually beneficial, I mean,
00:12:12.680 we'll have to figure out.
00:12:13.680 It won't be clear right away.
00:12:15.520 This is 49, you know, 50-51 or is it 30-70.
00:12:21.740 We'll see over time.
00:12:23.000 But if we can get to an understanding and start working that, we will see who's coming out
00:12:28.520 here.
00:12:29.520 How's it working?
00:12:30.520 We can turn our attention to other issues versus just fighting about all the issues.
00:12:35.840 How much are you following the Huawei scandal with Meng in Canada and Ren?
00:12:40.640 Are you following the 5G battle between U.S. and China?
00:12:44.580 So how do you feel about the fact that when he signed the executive order, no U.S. company
00:12:50.440 can do business with Huawei and then Google comes out and cut the contract for their operating
00:12:56.180 system and now Huawei's projecting that they're going to lose 30 to 40 percent of revenues.
00:13:00.500 How much do you think the fear of China getting 5G before us is the motivation behind us pushing
00:13:08.120 China with their tariffs?
00:13:09.820 Do you see that as possibly being one of the reasons?
00:13:12.720 I don't think that's the main reason for pushing the tariffs, but I think it is part
00:13:17.180 of the calculation.
00:13:18.860 And I think what people saw was China had laid out this very ambitious plan over the next
00:13:23.740 decade to build their high-tech capacity.
00:13:27.740 They're moving ahead of us with distributing 5G technology around the world.
00:13:33.820 And the idea was they are doing this unfairly.
00:13:36.760 They're doing some stolen technology with some government subsidies.
00:13:42.300 And so people indeed are quite worried.
00:13:44.620 And they're worried about the fact that Chinese companies have to cooperate with their government
00:13:51.020 on intelligence matters.
00:13:53.520 And so thus, they're worried that Huawei systems can be penetrated by the Chinese government
00:14:00.160 when they're deployed around the world.
00:14:02.040 Now, all those things have to be verified.
00:14:06.020 They have to be looked through.
00:14:07.920 And all of our partners haven't accepted that.
00:14:11.300 And that's part of the debate that's going on internationally.
00:14:13.920 When we go other places and say, don't buy Huawei, people say, why not?
00:14:18.520 We give our argument.
00:14:19.520 They say, well, show me.
00:14:20.860 Show me this.
00:14:22.320 And show me how the Chinese are using this.
00:14:25.300 And so this is, it's not clear where this is going to come out yet.
00:14:31.120 But clearly, the U.S. government, as you said, has become very worried about Huawei and has
00:14:37.220 launched a strong effort, not just China, U.S., but internationally.
00:14:42.840 I wonder what's going to happen.
00:14:44.380 I mean, I wonder, okay, so let's just say we strike up a deal and it's a great deal.
00:14:48.600 What is a great deal for U.S. if we were able to get something with China, in your opinion?
00:14:52.600 Well, in my opinion, it would be a verifiable deal on intellectual property rights.
00:15:01.320 It would look at state subsidies for companies that compete internationally and would have
00:15:08.900 a regulation of that.
00:15:10.880 It would have the right to a dispute settlement mechanism with the right to take retaliatory
00:15:18.360 action if that settlement results and says yes, your complaint is right.
00:15:26.660 You know, it would be a big set of issues.
00:15:29.740 What it would not be is we're going to buy 50,000 more tons of soy next year.
00:15:36.320 That would be good, but what you need are institutional fixes that deal with the bad practices, not just
00:15:44.860 promises of buying more things for a year or two.
00:15:48.440 Yeah, again, I'm really curious what's going to happen with this because it's been going
00:15:52.240 on and it doesn't seem like either side has given in, so we'll see how that's going to
00:15:56.620 end up.
00:15:57.620 Talking about you as an ambassador of Mexico, when you were there, did you have any direct
00:16:03.460 dealings?
00:16:04.460 I would assume you did with Peña Nieto.
00:16:06.460 Yes, President Peña Nieto.
00:16:07.960 And so President Peña Nieto, I read an article one time about El Chapo saying that New
00:16:14.740 York Times article, matter of fact, I think it was, that he got $100 million when El Chapo
00:16:20.600 was doing what he was doing.
00:16:22.360 How is he held accountable if that is verified that that happened?
00:16:26.340 What do you or what do we, is that a worry for Marca to say, why is the president of Mexico
00:16:31.980 being paid $100 million by El Chapo, who we know you're talking about the $19 billion of
00:16:37.180 drug trafficking back and forth and it's not just cocaine, he's doing a lot of different
00:16:41.380 drugs that you're dealing with.
00:16:42.820 Is that concerning at all?
00:16:43.820 And if yes, what are the repercussions to him for being held accountable for that?
00:16:47.820 Well, yes, it is a great concern because we know there is corruption.
00:16:52.560 We know these drug groups by a lot of officials.
00:16:56.140 They threaten them and pay them.
00:16:59.900 And it makes it very, very hard to go after these organizations in Mexico when that's happening.
00:17:07.500 Now, I don't know anything about a particular bribe to the president except I saw that allegation.
00:17:13.920 But we do know that money was flowing to officials.
00:17:17.060 And so what this makes really important is that you have an effective and independent justice
00:17:22.740 system that can investigate these things, bring people to trial.
00:17:28.000 That has not been particularly the case in Mexico.
00:17:31.700 Their justice system works slowly.
00:17:34.620 There have not been big corruption cases that have been brought.
00:17:38.000 That's one of the promises of the new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, that he's going
00:17:43.940 to really go after corruption.
00:17:46.000 They've announced a few new cases of corruption.
00:17:49.660 But what you really have to have are big, high-level officials being held accountable if there is
00:17:56.600 indeed evidence they got payments from drug groups or from others for public contracts
00:18:02.820 or other things.
00:18:03.820 Who holds them accountable?
00:18:04.820 Us?
00:18:05.820 U.S., as somebody that's trying to have a trade relationship with them, or is it Mexico's government
00:18:10.440 holding them accountable?
00:18:11.440 It ultimately has to be Mexico's government, but if the money comes to the U.S., or if there's
00:18:19.520 property purchased in the U.S., then the United States can take action against that money from
00:18:26.640 corruption.
00:18:27.640 Got it.
00:18:28.640 And we have, in fact, brought cases against governors and others in Mexico who have transferred
00:18:34.760 questionable funds, let's say, into real estate in the United States, for example.
00:18:40.200 So that we could, if they do?
00:18:42.700 If they do that, if it passes through our system, we have authority to go after it.
00:18:48.960 So if Pena Nieto, former president of Mexico, Pena Nieto, buys a property in the U.S., and
00:18:54.880 we feel a strong urge to want to investigate him because we think he was paid off by El Chapo,
00:18:59.800 then we could.
00:19:01.240 We'd have to have more than the urge.
00:19:02.780 We'd have to have some evidence that he actually got paid off, but we have done that with other
00:19:08.280 Mexican officials.
00:19:09.280 We have done that.
00:19:10.280 Because we have gotten the evidence and testimonies, in some cases, of witnesses who helped facilitate
00:19:17.160 the money transfers.
00:19:18.280 Let me ask you, what do you think about whistleblowers?
00:19:20.780 Are they good for the world?
00:19:22.780 Are they good for the country?
00:19:23.780 I think they are good for the world.
00:19:25.780 I think we do need to have people who are willing to speak up, and we do need to protect
00:19:30.180 them when they speak up.
00:19:31.780 And their evidence is proven to be good evidence, you know, not just trying to retaliate against
00:19:37.280 somebody.
00:19:38.280 I think it is valuable.
00:19:39.280 So you think WikiLeaks, what they do is good for the world?
00:19:41.780 Do you think it's good for U.S.?
00:19:43.780 Well, in a sense, what I'd say is I wouldn't quite call that whistleblowing.
00:19:48.780 I would say that's just putting all sorts of stuff out there that wasn't public and making
00:19:54.880 it public without any thinking through what are the effects of that going to be.
00:19:59.480 What I think of a whistleblower is somebody that comes into a prosecutor and says, look,
00:20:04.880 this bad thing is going on, here's some evidence, and I'm willing to testify about it.
00:20:09.880 That's not going out to the public and just saying, here are all these secret files that
00:20:13.880 we don't think there should be any secret activities going on, so we're going to publish
00:20:17.380 them.
00:20:18.380 That's a different thing.
00:20:19.380 Got it.
00:20:20.380 So you're for whistleblowers.
00:20:21.380 You're not for WikiLeaks and what they're doing.
00:20:22.380 Yes.
00:20:23.380 Do you think they're going to slow down at all?
00:20:24.380 I think it is slowing down because people are getting blowback.
00:20:29.380 People are saying, wait, this is too much.
00:20:31.380 Why are you doing this?
00:20:32.380 You know, are you just trying to destroy and not necessarily bad things?
00:20:37.380 Now, it is one thing to find a scandal, to find corruption, to find something illegal
00:20:43.180 going on, publicizing that.
00:20:45.680 It's another thing just to publicize things because it's not public.
00:20:49.280 What's the difference?
00:20:50.280 What's the difference?
00:20:51.280 Well, one, you're breaking the law.
00:20:52.880 You're doing something, you're breaking a set of rules.
00:20:56.080 Like emails.
00:20:57.080 If they're publicizing emails, if they're publicizing a communication with me and somebody
00:21:01.680 else and it has to do with the government and I did something that I broke the law, is
00:21:06.080 that considered whistleblowing or is that considered sharing information that could potentially hurt a country?
00:21:10.680 Well, you'd have to look at the specifics, I think, of what was shared and what laws were
00:21:17.580 being broken and what you were doing.
00:21:19.680 I'm asking that question because I wonder how much that's going to go on in the next election
00:21:23.580 that we have.
00:21:24.580 I wonder because, you know, I think this is going to be a very ugly one that's coming up.
00:21:29.180 And I think moving forward, it's going to get uglier and uglier.
00:21:31.480 I don't think it's going to get any more diplomatic and, oh, I respect my opponents, but this is
00:21:36.880 what I believe in.
00:21:37.580 I don't think we're in that era.
00:21:39.080 No, I think you're right that socially we're redefining what is privacy, what should be
00:21:47.080 private, what needs to be protected, what shouldn't be protected, and what's fair play to bring
00:21:51.880 up.
00:21:52.880 And I think that is changing.
00:21:53.880 We've seen it change over this last decade.
00:21:55.880 It's going to change some more.
00:21:57.880 And I think you're getting both some reaction to too much of that.
00:22:03.880 But we haven't really defined what are the new social norms here.
00:22:08.200 And we have all these actors from all over the world intervening everywhere.
00:22:12.000 And they're not going to stop, though.
00:22:14.000 And they're not going to stop.
00:22:15.000 They're not going to stop.
00:22:16.000 They're just going to get bigger and bigger.
00:22:17.000 It's so hard to catch them, though, because it's massive.
00:22:21.000 You're not dealing with three or four.
00:22:23.000 You're dealing with so many of them.
00:22:25.000 It's going to be fun.
00:22:26.000 It's going to be, you know, when you pay to watch a good fight, you know, a good boxing
00:22:31.900 fight, I think if they put the debates on pay-per-view, I think you would sell so much
00:22:36.200 if they did it this time, whoever it's going to be.
00:22:38.000 I mean, if it's going to be Bernie or Biden or whatever person, Elizabeth Warren, that
00:22:42.300 comes up to go up against Trump, it will be very entertaining.
00:22:44.800 Because I know the last one was.
00:22:46.800 Venezuela.
00:22:47.800 Do you have any opinions about what's going on with Venezuela and what the long-term solutions
00:22:52.900 would be for the folks of Venezuela?
00:22:54.800 I know a lot of friends from Venezuela.
00:22:56.800 In our company, we have a lot of people that are Venezuelans that work.
00:22:59.800 I myself did a video on Venezuela, and it's a concern when you see how they don't have vitamins,
00:23:04.800 they don't have food, they're going through really tough times, and a lot of them are
00:23:07.600 leaving to Colombia or Peru.
00:23:09.100 What is the long-term solution for us to address someone like Maduro, who is not willing to
00:23:15.600 work to allow the free election taking place?
00:23:18.600 What's the long-term solution for the folks of Venezuela?
00:23:21.100 Well, you're exactly right that it's a horrible situation.
00:23:24.900 Three and a half million refugees, a lot of malnutrition in the country, lack of medical
00:23:29.900 care, horrible situation.
00:23:32.300 On the other hand, nobody is willing to step forward and say there's a military solution
00:23:39.400 here.
00:23:40.900 And part of that is there's part of it what justifies intervening in another country.
00:23:45.900 Part of it is recognition he still has a lot of support, not just from the military, but
00:23:52.700 from the militias, the chivista militias that are armed in that country.
00:23:57.820 So the solution that people are trying to pursue, I think, is in principle right, which is you
00:24:04.820 find ways to increase the pressure on them.
00:24:09.580 And you try to reduce the resources they have available to pay for what they're doing in their
00:24:17.380 government.
00:24:18.380 And that you get to a situation where either they decide they're going to leave or they're
00:24:24.620 happy to negotiate a way to leave and a transition maybe to an internationally supervised election.
00:24:34.180 But I don't think this is going to happen quickly.
00:24:37.940 It is going to be necessary to have a constant effort to look at ways by the regional countries,
00:24:45.420 by other international countries to increase that pressure.
00:24:49.320 And that probably means we get back to China here.
00:24:52.260 It probably means working China, working Russia, working Cuba to get them to stop buying Venezuelan
00:24:59.420 petroleum to increase that pressure.
00:25:03.100 You think that would cause him to say, OK, I give up?
00:25:06.200 I think it would make it a lot harder for them to run the country because they would have
00:25:11.880 less income to actually pay their soldiers, their militia.
00:25:18.680 And that, I think, would open the door.
00:25:21.480 I don't see another solution.
00:25:23.820 What's another?
00:25:24.820 What do you see as another?
00:25:25.680 Well, I mean, you know, the whole saying goes where it's like, you know, we're not everybody's
00:25:28.680 mother.
00:25:29.680 We're not here to take care of everybody.
00:25:31.180 We should stay out of people's business.
00:25:32.360 It's like, hey, if people are going through marital issues, just kind of leave them alone.
00:25:36.780 Let the husband and wife resolve.
00:25:38.580 But if there is domestic violence and it's getting pretty ugly and you know it and you
00:25:42.520 see it and you hear about it, should you get involved and say, Johnny, listen, man, if
00:25:46.040 you hit her, I'm sorry.
00:25:47.640 I got to get involved.
00:25:48.640 I just natural instinct.
00:25:50.140 It's kind of like what Maduro is doing to some of his people.
00:25:53.040 It's a different form of hitting them because they're not being fed.
00:25:55.500 These are young kids that are eating rotten meat.
00:25:58.040 So you sit and wonder, should we get involved and be a little bit more proactive about this
00:26:01.860 or should we just kind of sit in the sideline and say, it's Venezuela's problem.
00:26:06.040 It's central.
00:26:07.040 It's South America's problem.
00:26:08.040 Let them figure it out.
00:26:09.040 It's not our problem.
00:26:10.040 Maybe somebody that's coming out, the gentleman that's currently in Colombia, Guido, I believe,
00:26:15.340 maybe he's going to do something about it, but let their election take place for itself.
00:26:19.260 So do you think we should get involved and do something about it, whether it's military
00:26:23.160 or any other kind of support?
00:26:25.720 I don't think we should get militarily involved.
00:26:28.100 I think that it would take so much force and be such a long intervention that it wouldn't
00:26:34.200 have the support of the American people.
00:26:36.400 But I do think we need to remain economically involved with diplomacy, with more sanctions,
00:26:43.120 with trying to cut off those resources and finding new ways to cut off those resources,
00:26:47.960 for sure.
00:26:49.120 And we have to do it with others.
00:26:50.660 We have to have an international coalition that gets stronger and stronger.
00:26:54.560 You still think we need China, we need Cuba, we need these guys to participate to help us
00:26:58.160 out.
00:26:59.160 Well, we need to figure ways to get them to stop supporting that regime.
00:27:03.700 It's going to be hard, but it would be very hard to militarily intervene in that country.
00:27:10.220 Yeah, it's like it's almost where it's a Pablo, except he runs the country.
00:27:17.720 Yeah.
00:27:18.720 It's a Pablo that's running the country, so it's not the usual dynamic we're used to.
00:27:25.560 Maybe we are used to a little bit of it, but we didn't do much about it back then.
00:27:28.980 Anyway, so last but not least, you've got a project where you're working on future workforce
00:27:33.600 with AI and you see a lot of people concerned about what AI could do and how jobs are changing.
00:27:40.540 You know, we have to reposition ourselves, we have to learn different things.
00:27:44.380 What are your thoughts with how AI is going to affect the future of economy and job placement?
00:27:49.500 Well, I think probably we're going to see about 30% of, on average, everybody's job change
00:28:01.000 over the next five to ten years.
00:28:04.260 Some jobs are going to be completely eliminated.
00:28:07.120 Some new ones are going to be created and then others are going to be reinvented.
00:28:11.080 And so if we don't get smarter about the mix of private sector business models, education
00:28:20.380 and education coming into the workforce and while you're in the workforce, and then government
00:28:26.320 policies that help support that, we're going to suffer some of the same problems we've
00:28:32.100 seen over this first 15 years or so of this decade with a lot of people feeling left behind,
00:28:38.420 getting pushed out of the workforce, being politically disgruntled.
00:28:43.180 We need to get ahead of it right now.
00:28:46.260 One recent study found that the same parts of the country that got hit by the first decade
00:28:54.620 of job losses are going to be hit again when AI comes in.
00:28:58.800 It's going to be these traditional manufacturing areas, on average, that are going to be hit harder.
00:29:04.000 So unless we change our approach, we're going to relive that same kind of pain.
00:29:10.260 So what I've been working on are a number of specific ideas of how governments, the education
00:29:16.060 sector and private companies can start working nationally at state levels and then locally
00:29:23.720 to really train people as part of just the way you do business.
00:29:28.240 So for all the entrepreneurs and business people watching your channel, it's building
00:29:33.240 into their model, I'm just going to have to count for spending money to invest in my
00:29:39.920 human capital, to give them retraining when we get new technologies.
00:29:44.860 Sometimes it might be a week, sometimes it might be a month, depends on the business.
00:29:49.880 And I'm going to have to be supportive of working with that local community college
00:29:54.400 or university that they actually give the courses that are going to make people good workers
00:29:58.940 for me.
00:29:59.940 They can't just do English literature, as important as that is, or history or those straight business
00:30:06.220 classes.
00:30:07.540 They really have to know what kind of technology is coming through, where business is going.
00:30:11.480 But aren't they slow?
00:30:12.480 Aren't colleges slow to adapt with what's needed to teach?
00:30:15.700 They are.
00:30:16.700 I mean, if there's a criticism of colleges, if there's skill set that is needed today, we're
00:30:19.440 not going to get it as a class for four years.
00:30:21.400 That's right, so that's why we, what I think is we have to establish these active, interactive
00:30:28.680 councils between government, education and business in different localities, it's something
00:30:33.640 that can be done regionally, to be talking about this on a regular basis, so people are
00:30:39.540 reinforcing the need to change, so they can do it more quickly.
00:30:43.900 And it's the same way for business, you know, business traditionally, if I need somebody new,
00:30:47.900 I'll hire that person new, and if these people don't have the skills, thank you for your
00:30:52.060 service.
00:30:53.060 I think that's going to have to change in a sense, as it already has in Germany and Japan.
00:30:59.120 They build that into their business model that, sure, some people leave, but they're
00:31:03.860 really training their workers along the way.
00:31:06.620 So when that new technology comes in, when those robots come in, when the machine learning
00:31:10.940 starts, they train those workers, and that's just part of the expense of doing business,
00:31:16.060 it's being more competitive to do that.
00:31:18.120 Yeah, it's going to be, again, with AI, I think private sector is going to be, those
00:31:24.040 who adapt and adjust quickly will have the edge, but I also read a lot of people say, experts
00:31:29.580 say that AI is not going to have a big effect for a long time.
00:31:33.520 And when it does, you know, those who adjust and adapt quickly will benefit from it.
00:31:38.020 Those who don't are going to take a hit, but it's not going to be the next five, 10 years.
00:31:42.140 There are some experts that are saying 30, 40 years is when it's really going to happen,
00:31:45.700 but nobody knows.
00:31:46.700 We're going to see what's going to happen.
00:31:47.700 Now, there are a number of studies, the World Economic Forum, Accenture, you know, a number
00:31:52.040 of the other manpower groups and stuff look at it and they say, no, you're really going
00:31:55.980 to start feeling it over the next five and 10 years.
00:31:59.060 So you, if you're smart, you just start changing your system.
00:32:02.100 Now you get ready.
00:32:03.100 Well, I think it's better to anticipate it coming, right?
00:32:06.320 I think it's smarter to anticipate it coming.
00:32:08.120 So you're not surprised.
00:32:09.120 The last thing you want to do in business is to be surprised.
00:32:11.120 We've seen a lot of companies do that.
00:32:13.280 And there's many, many cemeteries filled with companies like Blockbuster, Kmart, and many
00:32:18.860 other ones that are buried there.
00:32:20.660 So some of the areas, for example, you think, well, some of it is on the job learning, apprenticeship,
00:32:25.360 but there are other things like credentials.
00:32:27.220 Like when you're going to hire somebody, what does that credential mean?
00:32:30.540 So there are a lot of things you can do to make those credentials more, have more confidence
00:32:35.240 in them, to be shared more widely.
00:32:37.720 You can have data of the markets that's more transparent and more readily available for
00:32:42.600 all the businesses.
00:32:43.600 So they know, gee, over in New England, they have an excess of these engineers that we need.
00:32:51.560 Let's reach out there and get them.
00:32:53.540 There are things you can, governments can do to make that data more available.
00:32:56.520 So there are a whole bunch of things you can do to make this a smoother process.
00:33:01.040 And that's what we're looking at.
00:33:02.720 I think the wind either got excited or got upset at your feedback about AI, but we're
00:33:07.980 going to find that next five to 10 years.
00:33:09.320 What happens?
00:33:09.900 Tony, thank you so much for being a guest on Valuetainment.
00:33:12.040 A pleasure.
00:33:12.540 Appreciate you.
00:33:13.540 I really enjoyed it.
00:33:14.040 Thank you.
00:33:14.540 Thanks everybody for listening.
00:33:15.660 And by the way, if you haven't already subscribed to Valuetainment on iTunes, please do so.
00:33:20.140 Give us a five star, write a review if you haven't already.
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00:33:36.060 With that being said, have a great day today.
00:33:37.980 Take care, everybody.
00:33:38.700 Bye-bye.