Valuetainment - Episode 355： US Ambassador To Mexico Talks Trade War And Border

00:00:00.000 I'm Patrick Bedevi, host of Ayutem, and today's guest is Tony Wayne, former U.S. ambassador

00:00:20.980 to Mexico and U.S. ambassador to Argentina.

00:00:23.160 We're going to talk about trade war and the border.

00:00:25.460 Tony, thanks for being a guest on Ayutem.

00:00:27.740 It's great to be with you, Patrick.

00:00:28.800 Yes, good to have you.

00:00:29.780 So, Tony, as somebody who was a former ambassador yourself to Mexico, what is your take on all

00:00:35.860 these things that's going on with U.S. and Mexico tariffs?

00:00:38.400 We're not going to do tariffs.

00:00:39.480 We're going to do tariffs.

00:00:40.540 What are your thoughts on that?

00:00:42.100 Well, it's an opportunity to learn how important Mexico is to the United States.

00:00:47.860 I mean, that's one thing that strikes you when you've been when I've been following this for

00:00:52.460 the past couple of years.

00:00:53.560 I mean, we trade one million dollars a minute with Mexico.

00:00:57.700 Per minute.

00:00:58.200 Per minute.

00:00:58.800 We have a million crossings of the border every day.

00:01:04.280 We have a relationship across that 2,000-mile border that means that Mexico is a country that

00:01:11.040 touches the lives of more Americans than any other country every day, each day.

00:01:17.300 And people don't really understand that until you get into a crisis.

00:01:22.240 And then you see how much we need to work together to solve the problems that are there and to

00:01:29.880 maintain all the important benefits we're getting in this relationship.

00:01:33.860 So what is your interpretation of what President Donald Trump's challenge is with the border?

00:01:38.920 Well, there are a couple of different challenges at the border across, of course.

00:01:42.860 There are the migrants that's from Central America that have been coming. 0.99

00:01:47.300 That is a real challenge.

00:01:48.740 It is an emergency.

00:01:50.160 They've started coming in family units in unprecedented numbers, and they've surprised everybody by 0.57

00:01:56.600 how many are coming.

00:01:57.440 Sure.

00:01:57.940 Now, we can talk about the reasons for that, but we do need to have a better management of

00:02:02.820 it, and we just can't absorb that many.

00:02:05.080 Neither can Mexico, which is part of the reason why they're coming through. 0.99

00:02:08.960 They've overwhelmed their capacity also.

00:02:11.460 Secondly, we have a problem of the drug trafficking that does take place across the border.

00:02:18.740 And we have the profits from that trafficking that go back to Mexico, often in the form of

00:02:24.100 guns that they bought to take back to be used by the cartels in Mexico.

00:02:28.640 The profits of the trafficking that they do in U.S., they get the money from here and that

00:02:32.960 goes back to Mexico.

00:02:33.960 Is that what you're saying?

00:02:34.960 That does.

00:02:35.960 The estimates are they make 19 to 29, 30 billion dollars a year selling those drugs in the

00:02:43.040 United States.

00:02:44.400 Then a lot of that goes back to Mexico to the cartels to fuel their operations.

00:02:50.840 19 to 20 billion?

00:02:52.280 That's right.

00:02:53.280 And it goes back to Mexico.

00:02:54.480 And it goes back to Mexico.

00:02:57.020 And so one of the challenges is handling the illicit commerce in both directions.

00:03:03.940 And that means you have to go after supply for sure, but you have to go after demand also.

00:03:09.020 Got it.

00:03:10.020 You have to try and bring that demand down in the United States.

00:03:12.380 And that's what would be a big help to us because we have all these addiction deaths

00:03:16.160 in the United States, which we don't want.

00:03:18.020 We've got to do that.

00:03:19.220 And then in Mexico, all this money fuels the violence that they've been plagued by and the 0.56

00:03:24.820 rising homicides in that country.

00:03:27.900 So the tariff that President Trump put on Mexico that was, you know, taken out fairly

00:03:34.900 quickly, it didn't last a long time.

00:03:35.900 It lasted, I think, the lifespan of the tariff, I don't even know if it was a couple of months.

00:03:38.900 It didn't even go into effect.

00:03:39.900 Yeah, it didn't even go into effect.

00:03:40.900 So do you think the intention of wanting to have a tariff was to say, because, you know,

00:03:45.580 on the campaign he said, Mexico is going to pay for the wall.

00:03:48.240 Do you think it's his way of saying Mexico paid for the wall?

00:03:51.420 Or do you think it's more of trying to focus on protecting the border, asking Mexico, what

00:03:55.660 can you do to fix the immigration problem of coming here?

00:03:59.020 What do you think yourself?

00:04:00.020 I think he was trying to get Mexico's attention to be better at helping fix the number of migrants 1.00

00:04:05.620 headed north.

00:04:06.620 Okay.

00:04:07.620 So it's very simple.

00:04:08.620 You don't think you don't read into it, thinking there's anything more than that.

00:04:10.620 Well, that's why I think he did that.

00:04:12.120 Now, he previously also said, I'm going to shut the border down.

00:04:16.040 And sometimes in some of his statements, he's linked it to drug trafficking also.

00:04:20.640 But basically he was trying to get attention.

00:04:22.860 I believe this is getting out of hand.

00:04:25.620 Let's fix it.

00:04:26.860 Now the problem with that tactic is that he also panics a lot of American businessmen and

00:04:34.280 a lot of American consumers because we are so dependent on building things together.

00:04:40.820 I mean, half of all our trade with Mexico are intermediate goods.

00:04:45.080 They go into a final product either in the United States or Mexico.

00:04:49.280 And then the other half are final things, but they're consumed in both countries.

00:04:53.680 So if you actually put those tariffs on, you would be taxing U.S. businesses and U.S. consumers,

00:05:02.360 as well as hurting Mexicans.

00:05:04.240 So everybody would really be paying the price.

00:05:07.320 So the bottom line is it's very good that we did not go on that path.

00:05:12.640 But you still have a lot of business people who are very worried about the unpredictability

00:05:18.880 of this situation.

00:05:19.880 And you know, since you produce and talk to, talk with entrepreneurs all the time, what they

00:05:25.940 crave is knowing the rules, knowing the situation so they can make their planning, they can invest,

00:05:32.940 they can take their innovative steps if they want to, but they're not going to get knocked

00:05:37.260 around by changes in government rules.

00:05:39.620 Yeah.

00:05:40.620 It's funny you say that.

00:05:41.620 We were talking to a friend of mine who runs a restaurant.

00:05:43.620 It's a very good sized restaurant.

00:05:45.180 They do 20 million years.

00:05:46.180 So it's not a small restaurant.

00:05:47.720 And I said, how much is this tariff, this conflict we're having with U.S.-Mexico affecting

00:05:51.700 you?

00:05:52.700 He says, a lot.

00:05:53.700 I said, tell me more.

00:05:54.700 Tell me what you mean by that.

00:05:55.700 He says, tomatoes, onions.

00:05:56.900 He started getting into this.

00:05:57.900 He says, we feel the pain.

00:05:58.900 He says, because five pennies or even two pennies fell on 20,000 pounds a month, that

00:06:04.500 can end up being money.

00:06:06.380 So it's interesting you say that because I know the entrepreneurs are affected by it.

00:06:09.260 So how different is our relationship with Mexico that we had a little bit of a challenge

00:06:14.880 with different than the relationship we have with China?

00:06:17.280 Because there's trade issues going both places.

00:06:20.500 What's the difference between Mexico versus China to you?

00:06:23.500 Well, first, I think Canada and Mexico have been our number one and number three export

00:06:30.320 markets.

00:06:31.320 China is number two.

00:06:33.320 China, U.S., Mexico and Canada have been number one.

00:06:36.620 And number two.

00:06:37.700 Because they're neighbors.

00:06:38.700 They're right next to us.

00:06:39.700 And then China is right there in between.

00:06:41.200 Got it.

00:06:42.200 Now, Mexico has actually become number one this year because of the problems with China.

00:06:47.060 But the difference, there are a couple of differences.

00:06:49.400 One is we build things with Canada and Mexico.

00:06:53.100 We don't do that with China. 0.81

00:06:55.900 So for example, a car coming back from Mexico that looks like a Mexican car, really 40% of

00:07:04.400 that car is American product, American input.

00:07:08.580 The car was coming in from China, 4% might be American product.

00:07:13.060 So there's a real difference.

00:07:14.360 And then if it was Canada, 25% or 20%.

00:07:18.920 So the difference is we make things together with our neighbors.

00:07:22.060 We don't do that with China. 0.81

00:07:24.080 The other thing is we don't have the problem with intellectual property theft that we have

00:07:28.820 with China with our two neighbors.

00:07:30.680 They respect our intellectual property.

00:07:33.660 We've had these rules under the NAFTA trade agreement since the early 1990s.

00:07:39.600 We've had problems, but we've worked them through.

00:07:42.140 We have a really smooth relationship.

00:07:44.760 And the private sector has built these big networks of trade for lettuce, avocados, other

00:07:50.720 things.

00:07:51.720 But for cars, for building things together.

00:07:53.780 That's different with China. 0.58

00:07:55.840 We do have in some of the high tech areas and iPhones and other things, we do have that

00:08:00.300 kind of relationship.

00:08:02.860 But more of that is put together with Chinese products.

00:08:06.200 The intellectual property is US intellectual property.

00:08:09.660 But that's where you get into the problem of China not respecting intellectual property,

00:08:15.140 stealing it.

00:08:16.140 Right.

00:08:17.140 Trying to make it, turn it into its own industry, thus turning it into a more of a predatory

00:08:22.820 relationship.

00:08:24.320 So it sounds like you are for what President Trump is doing to China right now to re-cut

00:08:28.940 a new deal on the tariffs, whether it has to do with us not having to share our intellectual

00:08:33.160 property with them due to their new Made in China 25 plan that they have.

00:08:37.320 It sounds like you're almost for what he's doing.

00:08:39.080 Well, I'm certainly for dealing forcefully with the Chinese. 1.00

00:08:42.940 You are.

00:08:43.940 You are for dealing forcefully with the Chinese. 1.00

00:08:45.320 To get there, to get them to pay attention, to change their practices.

00:08:49.960 What you have to do is you've got to balance that very carefully, because there's a lot

00:08:54.200 of pain that comes with this at the same time.

00:08:56.900 Our farmers, for example, lost a lot of markets, and the combination of having disputes with

00:09:03.640 Canada, Mexico, and China together hurt the farmers of the United States and the Midwest 0.97

00:09:09.400 tremendously.

00:09:10.400 Those were their biggest export markets.

00:09:12.400 Record-breaking bankruptcies that we haven't had for over a decade.

00:09:15.440 That's right.

00:09:16.440 You have to measure the tools you're going to use, but the costs of using those tools.

00:09:20.900 What does that mean?

00:09:22.380 That means I probably would not have put tariffs as large tariffs.

00:09:26.680 I would have looked for other ways to increase pressure.

00:09:29.780 I would have rallied other trading partners to join us in pressuring China. 0.82

00:09:35.880 How would you do that?

00:09:36.880 Well, I would do it by working with them to get them, show them what they're losing to.

00:09:43.900 I would have explored, what are you willing to do?

00:09:46.940 We're willing to up these tariffs, do this.

00:09:49.360 Are you willing to do something similar to increase the pressures?

00:09:52.360 I would have explored that.

00:09:53.360 But doesn't it sound like they don't want to do that?

00:09:55.360 I would have tried to build a coalition.

00:09:56.360 Well, we haven't really forcefully explored that.

00:09:59.580 I think we've gone about this as the US versus China.

00:10:03.340 Now you can do that, but there are costs to doing that.

00:10:05.840 No doubt about it.

00:10:06.840 That's all I'm saying.

00:10:07.840 Worst thing that can happen.

00:10:08.840 So take us to the worst place.

00:10:11.340 So we're talking worst place on what could happen between the US and China relationship

00:10:15.680 when it comes down to trade.

00:10:16.840 Well, the worst place is that we pull down a new shade.

00:10:21.020 Not quite an iron curtain, but a trade curtain where our trade goes way down.

00:10:27.520 We have different partners in the rest of the world.

00:10:30.520 We trade with those partners, but it's no longer part of a free-flowing, unified market.

00:10:38.840 And you don't get the benefits of that more free and fair trade.

00:10:43.700 And so that would be, I think, the worst outcome.

00:10:46.020 You sort of move into two different spheres of influence.

00:10:49.660 The best outcome would be we get to an understanding of what the best practices are for trade.

00:10:58.840 And, you know, we don't like each other wonderfully, maybe.

00:11:02.340 We disagree on democracy, other practices.

00:11:05.500 But we still have a strong interaction between our economies that builds on the strength of

00:11:12.200 each economy.

00:11:13.200 Do you think it's really going to be a deal where it's going to be 50-50 where both benefits

00:11:17.260 from each other evenly?

00:11:19.260 Or do you think right now, you know, President Trump's trying to strike a deal that's more

00:11:23.160 benefiting US versus it is China?

00:11:25.160 Well, I'm sure he's trying to get the best deal he can, which means he'd like to get

00:11:29.400 more benefit from the US.

00:11:31.360 I don't know where it's going to come out, really.

00:11:33.760 But what I do know is the worst outcome would be that we don't solve the problems.

00:11:39.560 We sort of divide the world up and we're competing all around the world, but we're not solving

00:11:44.200 the differences between us.

00:11:46.240 And one of the problems are we are going to have some serious differences on some military

00:11:52.760 geostrategic issues in the South China Sea.

00:11:56.780 We're going to have differences over our approach to democracy.

00:12:01.620 It's easier to solve some of those problems if you're not fighting about everything.

00:12:06.860 So if we can get to some understandings on international commerce that are mutually beneficial, I mean,

00:12:12.680 we'll have to figure out.

00:12:13.680 It won't be clear right away.

00:12:15.520 This is 49, you know, 50-51 or is it 30-70.

00:12:21.740 We'll see over time.

00:12:23.000 But if we can get to an understanding and start working that, we will see who's coming out

00:12:28.520 here.

00:12:29.520 How's it working?

00:12:30.520 We can turn our attention to other issues versus just fighting about all the issues.

00:12:35.840 How much are you following the Huawei scandal with Meng in Canada and Ren?

00:12:40.640 Are you following the 5G battle between U.S. and China?

00:12:44.580 So how do you feel about the fact that when he signed the executive order, no U.S. company

00:12:50.440 can do business with Huawei and then Google comes out and cut the contract for their operating

00:12:56.180 system and now Huawei's projecting that they're going to lose 30 to 40 percent of revenues.

00:13:00.500 How much do you think the fear of China getting 5G before us is the motivation behind us pushing

00:13:08.120 China with their tariffs?

00:13:09.820 Do you see that as possibly being one of the reasons?

00:13:12.720 I don't think that's the main reason for pushing the tariffs, but I think it is part

00:13:17.180 of the calculation.

00:13:18.860 And I think what people saw was China had laid out this very ambitious plan over the next

00:13:23.740 decade to build their high-tech capacity.

00:13:27.740 They're moving ahead of us with distributing 5G technology around the world.

00:13:33.820 And the idea was they are doing this unfairly.

00:13:36.760 They're doing some stolen technology with some government subsidies.

00:13:42.300 And so people indeed are quite worried.

00:13:44.620 And they're worried about the fact that Chinese companies have to cooperate with their government

00:13:51.020 on intelligence matters.

00:13:53.520 And so thus, they're worried that Huawei systems can be penetrated by the Chinese government

00:14:00.160 when they're deployed around the world.

00:14:02.040 Now, all those things have to be verified.

00:14:06.020 They have to be looked through.

00:14:07.920 And all of our partners haven't accepted that.

00:14:11.300 And that's part of the debate that's going on internationally.

00:14:13.920 When we go other places and say, don't buy Huawei, people say, why not?

00:14:18.520 We give our argument.

00:14:19.520 They say, well, show me.

00:14:20.860 Show me this.

00:14:22.320 And show me how the Chinese are using this.

00:14:25.300 And so this is, it's not clear where this is going to come out yet.

00:14:31.120 But clearly, the U.S. government, as you said, has become very worried about Huawei and has

00:14:37.220 launched a strong effort, not just China, U.S., but internationally.

00:14:42.840 I wonder what's going to happen.

00:14:44.380 I mean, I wonder, okay, so let's just say we strike up a deal and it's a great deal.

00:14:48.600 What is a great deal for U.S. if we were able to get something with China, in your opinion?

00:14:52.600 Well, in my opinion, it would be a verifiable deal on intellectual property rights.

00:15:01.320 It would look at state subsidies for companies that compete internationally and would have

00:15:08.900 a regulation of that.

00:15:10.880 It would have the right to a dispute settlement mechanism with the right to take retaliatory

00:15:18.360 action if that settlement results and says yes, your complaint is right.

00:15:26.660 You know, it would be a big set of issues.

00:15:29.740 What it would not be is we're going to buy 50,000 more tons of soy next year.

00:15:36.320 That would be good, but what you need are institutional fixes that deal with the bad practices, not just

00:15:44.860 promises of buying more things for a year or two.

00:15:48.440 Yeah, again, I'm really curious what's going to happen with this because it's been going

00:15:52.240 on and it doesn't seem like either side has given in, so we'll see how that's going to

00:15:56.620 end up.

00:15:57.620 Talking about you as an ambassador of Mexico, when you were there, did you have any direct

00:16:03.460 dealings?

00:16:04.460 I would assume you did with Peña Nieto.

00:16:06.460 Yes, President Peña Nieto.

00:16:07.960 And so President Peña Nieto, I read an article one time about El Chapo saying that New

00:16:14.740 York Times article, matter of fact, I think it was, that he got $100 million when El Chapo

00:16:20.600 was doing what he was doing.

00:16:22.360 How is he held accountable if that is verified that that happened?

00:16:26.340 What do you or what do we, is that a worry for Marca to say, why is the president of Mexico

00:16:31.980 being paid $100 million by El Chapo, who we know you're talking about the $19 billion of

00:16:37.180 drug trafficking back and forth and it's not just cocaine, he's doing a lot of different

00:16:41.380 drugs that you're dealing with.

00:16:42.820 Is that concerning at all?

00:16:43.820 And if yes, what are the repercussions to him for being held accountable for that?

00:16:47.820 Well, yes, it is a great concern because we know there is corruption.

00:16:52.560 We know these drug groups by a lot of officials.

00:16:56.140 They threaten them and pay them.

00:16:59.900 And it makes it very, very hard to go after these organizations in Mexico when that's happening.

00:17:07.500 Now, I don't know anything about a particular bribe to the president except I saw that allegation.

00:17:13.920 But we do know that money was flowing to officials.

00:17:17.060 And so what this makes really important is that you have an effective and independent justice

00:17:22.740 system that can investigate these things, bring people to trial.

00:17:28.000 That has not been particularly the case in Mexico.

00:17:31.700 Their justice system works slowly.

00:17:34.620 There have not been big corruption cases that have been brought.

00:17:38.000 That's one of the promises of the new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, that he's going

00:17:43.940 to really go after corruption.

00:17:46.000 They've announced a few new cases of corruption.

00:17:49.660 But what you really have to have are big, high-level officials being held accountable if there is

00:17:56.600 indeed evidence they got payments from drug groups or from others for public contracts

00:18:02.820 or other things.

00:18:03.820 Who holds them accountable?

00:18:04.820 Us?

00:18:05.820 U.S., as somebody that's trying to have a trade relationship with them, or is it Mexico's government

00:18:10.440 holding them accountable?

00:18:11.440 It ultimately has to be Mexico's government, but if the money comes to the U.S., or if there's

00:18:19.520 property purchased in the U.S., then the United States can take action against that money from

00:18:26.640 corruption.

00:18:27.640 Got it.

00:18:28.640 And we have, in fact, brought cases against governors and others in Mexico who have transferred

00:18:34.760 questionable funds, let's say, into real estate in the United States, for example.

00:18:40.200 So that we could, if they do?

00:18:42.700 If they do that, if it passes through our system, we have authority to go after it.

00:18:48.960 So if Pena Nieto, former president of Mexico, Pena Nieto, buys a property in the U.S., and

00:18:54.880 we feel a strong urge to want to investigate him because we think he was paid off by El Chapo,

00:18:59.800 then we could.

00:19:01.240 We'd have to have more than the urge.

00:19:02.780 We'd have to have some evidence that he actually got paid off, but we have done that with other

00:19:08.280 Mexican officials.

00:19:09.280 We have done that.

00:19:10.280 Because we have gotten the evidence and testimonies, in some cases, of witnesses who helped facilitate

00:19:17.160 the money transfers.

00:19:18.280 Let me ask you, what do you think about whistleblowers?

00:19:20.780 Are they good for the world?

00:19:22.780 Are they good for the country?

00:19:23.780 I think they are good for the world.

00:19:25.780 I think we do need to have people who are willing to speak up, and we do need to protect

00:19:30.180 them when they speak up.

00:19:31.780 And their evidence is proven to be good evidence, you know, not just trying to retaliate against

00:19:37.280 somebody.

00:19:38.280 I think it is valuable.

00:19:39.280 So you think WikiLeaks, what they do is good for the world?

00:19:41.780 Do you think it's good for U.S.?

00:19:43.780 Well, in a sense, what I'd say is I wouldn't quite call that whistleblowing.

00:19:48.780 I would say that's just putting all sorts of stuff out there that wasn't public and making

00:19:54.880 it public without any thinking through what are the effects of that going to be.

00:19:59.480 What I think of a whistleblower is somebody that comes into a prosecutor and says, look,

00:20:04.880 this bad thing is going on, here's some evidence, and I'm willing to testify about it.

00:20:09.880 That's not going out to the public and just saying, here are all these secret files that

00:20:13.880 we don't think there should be any secret activities going on, so we're going to publish

00:20:17.380 them.

00:20:18.380 That's a different thing.

00:20:19.380 Got it.

00:20:20.380 So you're for whistleblowers.

00:20:21.380 You're not for WikiLeaks and what they're doing.

00:20:22.380 Yes.

00:20:23.380 Do you think they're going to slow down at all?

00:20:24.380 I think it is slowing down because people are getting blowback.

00:20:29.380 People are saying, wait, this is too much.

00:20:31.380 Why are you doing this?

00:20:32.380 You know, are you just trying to destroy and not necessarily bad things?

00:20:37.380 Now, it is one thing to find a scandal, to find corruption, to find something illegal

00:20:43.180 going on, publicizing that.

00:20:45.680 It's another thing just to publicize things because it's not public.

00:20:49.280 What's the difference?

00:20:50.280 What's the difference?

00:20:51.280 Well, one, you're breaking the law.

00:20:52.880 You're doing something, you're breaking a set of rules.

00:20:56.080 Like emails.

00:20:57.080 If they're publicizing emails, if they're publicizing a communication with me and somebody

00:21:01.680 else and it has to do with the government and I did something that I broke the law, is

00:21:06.080 that considered whistleblowing or is that considered sharing information that could potentially hurt a country?

00:21:10.680 Well, you'd have to look at the specifics, I think, of what was shared and what laws were

00:21:17.580 being broken and what you were doing.

00:21:19.680 I'm asking that question because I wonder how much that's going to go on in the next election

00:21:23.580 that we have.

00:21:24.580 I wonder because, you know, I think this is going to be a very ugly one that's coming up.

00:21:29.180 And I think moving forward, it's going to get uglier and uglier.

00:21:31.480 I don't think it's going to get any more diplomatic and, oh, I respect my opponents, but this is

00:21:36.880 what I believe in.

00:21:37.580 I don't think we're in that era.

00:21:39.080 No, I think you're right that socially we're redefining what is privacy, what should be

00:21:47.080 private, what needs to be protected, what shouldn't be protected, and what's fair play to bring

00:21:51.880 up.

00:21:52.880 And I think that is changing.

00:21:53.880 We've seen it change over this last decade.

00:21:55.880 It's going to change some more.

00:21:57.880 And I think you're getting both some reaction to too much of that.

00:22:03.880 But we haven't really defined what are the new social norms here.

00:22:08.200 And we have all these actors from all over the world intervening everywhere.

00:22:12.000 And they're not going to stop, though.

00:22:14.000 And they're not going to stop.

00:22:15.000 They're not going to stop.

00:22:16.000 They're just going to get bigger and bigger.

00:22:17.000 It's so hard to catch them, though, because it's massive.

00:22:21.000 You're not dealing with three or four.

00:22:23.000 You're dealing with so many of them.

00:22:25.000 It's going to be fun.

00:22:26.000 It's going to be, you know, when you pay to watch a good fight, you know, a good boxing

00:22:31.900 fight, I think if they put the debates on pay-per-view, I think you would sell so much

00:22:36.200 if they did it this time, whoever it's going to be.

00:22:38.000 I mean, if it's going to be Bernie or Biden or whatever person, Elizabeth Warren, that

00:22:42.300 comes up to go up against Trump, it will be very entertaining.

00:22:44.800 Because I know the last one was.

00:22:46.800 Venezuela.

00:22:47.800 Do you have any opinions about what's going on with Venezuela and what the long-term solutions

00:22:52.900 would be for the folks of Venezuela?

00:22:54.800 I know a lot of friends from Venezuela.

00:22:56.800 In our company, we have a lot of people that are Venezuelans that work.

00:22:59.800 I myself did a video on Venezuela, and it's a concern when you see how they don't have vitamins,

00:23:04.800 they don't have food, they're going through really tough times, and a lot of them are

00:23:07.600 leaving to Colombia or Peru.

00:23:09.100 What is the long-term solution for us to address someone like Maduro, who is not willing to

00:23:15.600 work to allow the free election taking place?

00:23:18.600 What's the long-term solution for the folks of Venezuela?

00:23:21.100 Well, you're exactly right that it's a horrible situation.

00:23:24.900 Three and a half million refugees, a lot of malnutrition in the country, lack of medical

00:23:29.900 care, horrible situation.

00:23:32.300 On the other hand, nobody is willing to step forward and say there's a military solution

00:23:39.400 here.

00:23:40.900 And part of that is there's part of it what justifies intervening in another country.

00:23:45.900 Part of it is recognition he still has a lot of support, not just from the military, but

00:23:52.700 from the militias, the chivista militias that are armed in that country.

00:23:57.820 So the solution that people are trying to pursue, I think, is in principle right, which is you

00:24:04.820 find ways to increase the pressure on them.

00:24:09.580 And you try to reduce the resources they have available to pay for what they're doing in their

00:24:17.380 government.

00:24:18.380 And that you get to a situation where either they decide they're going to leave or they're

00:24:24.620 happy to negotiate a way to leave and a transition maybe to an internationally supervised election.

00:24:34.180 But I don't think this is going to happen quickly.

00:24:37.940 It is going to be necessary to have a constant effort to look at ways by the regional countries,

00:24:45.420 by other international countries to increase that pressure.

00:24:49.320 And that probably means we get back to China here.

00:24:52.260 It probably means working China, working Russia, working Cuba to get them to stop buying Venezuelan 0.84

00:24:59.420 petroleum to increase that pressure.

00:25:03.100 You think that would cause him to say, OK, I give up?

00:25:06.200 I think it would make it a lot harder for them to run the country because they would have

00:25:11.880 less income to actually pay their soldiers, their militia.

00:25:18.680 And that, I think, would open the door.

00:25:21.480 I don't see another solution.

00:25:23.820 What's another?

00:25:24.820 What do you see as another?

00:25:25.680 Well, I mean, you know, the whole saying goes where it's like, you know, we're not everybody's

00:25:28.680 mother.

00:25:29.680 We're not here to take care of everybody.

00:25:31.180 We should stay out of people's business.

00:25:32.360 It's like, hey, if people are going through marital issues, just kind of leave them alone.

00:25:36.780 Let the husband and wife resolve.

00:25:38.580 But if there is domestic violence and it's getting pretty ugly and you know it and you

00:25:42.520 see it and you hear about it, should you get involved and say, Johnny, listen, man, if

00:25:46.040 you hit her, I'm sorry.

00:25:47.640 I got to get involved.

00:25:48.640 I just natural instinct.

00:25:50.140 It's kind of like what Maduro is doing to some of his people.

00:25:53.040 It's a different form of hitting them because they're not being fed.

00:25:55.500 These are young kids that are eating rotten meat.

00:25:58.040 So you sit and wonder, should we get involved and be a little bit more proactive about this

00:26:01.860 or should we just kind of sit in the sideline and say, it's Venezuela's problem.

00:26:06.040 It's central.

00:26:07.040 It's South America's problem. 0.97

00:26:08.040 Let them figure it out.

00:26:09.040 It's not our problem.

00:26:10.040 Maybe somebody that's coming out, the gentleman that's currently in Colombia, Guido, I believe,

00:26:15.340 maybe he's going to do something about it, but let their election take place for itself.

00:26:19.260 So do you think we should get involved and do something about it, whether it's military

00:26:23.160 or any other kind of support?

00:26:25.720 I don't think we should get militarily involved.

00:26:28.100 I think that it would take so much force and be such a long intervention that it wouldn't

00:26:34.200 have the support of the American people.

00:26:36.400 But I do think we need to remain economically involved with diplomacy, with more sanctions,

00:26:43.120 with trying to cut off those resources and finding new ways to cut off those resources,

00:26:47.960 for sure.

00:26:49.120 And we have to do it with others.

00:26:50.660 We have to have an international coalition that gets stronger and stronger.

00:26:54.560 You still think we need China, we need Cuba, we need these guys to participate to help us

00:26:58.160 out.

00:26:59.160 Well, we need to figure ways to get them to stop supporting that regime.

00:27:03.700 It's going to be hard, but it would be very hard to militarily intervene in that country.

00:27:10.220 Yeah, it's like it's almost where it's a Pablo, except he runs the country.

00:27:17.720 Yeah.

00:27:18.720 It's a Pablo that's running the country, so it's not the usual dynamic we're used to. 0.91

00:27:25.560 Maybe we are used to a little bit of it, but we didn't do much about it back then.

00:27:28.980 Anyway, so last but not least, you've got a project where you're working on future workforce

00:27:33.600 with AI and you see a lot of people concerned about what AI could do and how jobs are changing.

00:27:40.540 You know, we have to reposition ourselves, we have to learn different things.

00:27:44.380 What are your thoughts with how AI is going to affect the future of economy and job placement?

00:27:49.500 Well, I think probably we're going to see about 30% of, on average, everybody's job change

00:28:01.000 over the next five to ten years.

00:28:04.260 Some jobs are going to be completely eliminated.

00:28:07.120 Some new ones are going to be created and then others are going to be reinvented.

00:28:11.080 And so if we don't get smarter about the mix of private sector business models, education

00:28:20.380 and education coming into the workforce and while you're in the workforce, and then government

00:28:26.320 policies that help support that, we're going to suffer some of the same problems we've

00:28:32.100 seen over this first 15 years or so of this decade with a lot of people feeling left behind,

00:28:38.420 getting pushed out of the workforce, being politically disgruntled.

00:28:43.180 We need to get ahead of it right now.

00:28:46.260 One recent study found that the same parts of the country that got hit by the first decade

00:28:54.620 of job losses are going to be hit again when AI comes in.

00:28:58.800 It's going to be these traditional manufacturing areas, on average, that are going to be hit harder.

00:29:04.000 So unless we change our approach, we're going to relive that same kind of pain.

00:29:10.260 So what I've been working on are a number of specific ideas of how governments, the education

00:29:16.060 sector and private companies can start working nationally at state levels and then locally

00:29:23.720 to really train people as part of just the way you do business.

00:29:28.240 So for all the entrepreneurs and business people watching your channel, it's building

00:29:33.240 into their model, I'm just going to have to count for spending money to invest in my

00:29:39.920 human capital, to give them retraining when we get new technologies.

00:29:44.860 Sometimes it might be a week, sometimes it might be a month, depends on the business.

00:29:49.880 And I'm going to have to be supportive of working with that local community college

00:29:54.400 or university that they actually give the courses that are going to make people good workers

00:29:58.940 for me.

00:29:59.940 They can't just do English literature, as important as that is, or history or those straight business

00:30:06.220 classes.

00:30:07.540 They really have to know what kind of technology is coming through, where business is going.

00:30:11.480 But aren't they slow?

00:30:12.480 Aren't colleges slow to adapt with what's needed to teach?

00:30:15.700 They are.

00:30:16.700 I mean, if there's a criticism of colleges, if there's skill set that is needed today, we're

00:30:19.440 not going to get it as a class for four years.

00:30:21.400 That's right, so that's why we, what I think is we have to establish these active, interactive

00:30:28.680 councils between government, education and business in different localities, it's something

00:30:33.640 that can be done regionally, to be talking about this on a regular basis, so people are

00:30:39.540 reinforcing the need to change, so they can do it more quickly.

00:30:43.900 And it's the same way for business, you know, business traditionally, if I need somebody new,

00:30:47.900 I'll hire that person new, and if these people don't have the skills, thank you for your

00:30:52.060 service.

00:30:53.060 I think that's going to have to change in a sense, as it already has in Germany and Japan.

00:30:59.120 They build that into their business model that, sure, some people leave, but they're

00:31:03.860 really training their workers along the way.

00:31:06.620 So when that new technology comes in, when those robots come in, when the machine learning

00:31:10.940 starts, they train those workers, and that's just part of the expense of doing business,

00:31:16.060 it's being more competitive to do that.

00:31:18.120 Yeah, it's going to be, again, with AI, I think private sector is going to be, those

00:31:24.040 who adapt and adjust quickly will have the edge, but I also read a lot of people say, experts

00:31:29.580 say that AI is not going to have a big effect for a long time.

00:31:33.520 And when it does, you know, those who adjust and adapt quickly will benefit from it.

00:31:38.020 Those who don't are going to take a hit, but it's not going to be the next five, 10 years.

00:31:42.140 There are some experts that are saying 30, 40 years is when it's really going to happen,

00:31:45.700 but nobody knows.

00:31:46.700 We're going to see what's going to happen.

00:31:47.700 Now, there are a number of studies, the World Economic Forum, Accenture, you know, a number

00:31:52.040 of the other manpower groups and stuff look at it and they say, no, you're really going

00:31:55.980 to start feeling it over the next five and 10 years.

00:31:59.060 So you, if you're smart, you just start changing your system.

00:32:02.100 Now you get ready.

00:32:03.100 Well, I think it's better to anticipate it coming, right?

00:32:06.320 I think it's smarter to anticipate it coming.

00:32:08.120 So you're not surprised.

00:32:09.120 The last thing you want to do in business is to be surprised.

00:32:11.120 We've seen a lot of companies do that.

00:32:13.280 And there's many, many cemeteries filled with companies like Blockbuster, Kmart, and many

00:32:18.860 other ones that are buried there.

00:32:20.660 So some of the areas, for example, you think, well, some of it is on the job learning, apprenticeship,

00:32:25.360 but there are other things like credentials.

00:32:27.220 Like when you're going to hire somebody, what does that credential mean?

00:32:30.540 So there are a lot of things you can do to make those credentials more, have more confidence

00:32:35.240 in them, to be shared more widely.

00:32:37.720 You can have data of the markets that's more transparent and more readily available for

00:32:42.600 all the businesses.

00:32:43.600 So they know, gee, over in New England, they have an excess of these engineers that we need.

00:32:51.560 Let's reach out there and get them.

00:32:53.540 There are things you can, governments can do to make that data more available.

00:32:56.520 So there are a whole bunch of things you can do to make this a smoother process.

00:33:01.040 And that's what we're looking at.

00:33:02.720 I think the wind either got excited or got upset at your feedback about AI, but we're

00:33:07.980 going to find that next five to 10 years.

00:33:09.320 What happens?

00:33:09.900 Tony, thank you so much for being a guest on Valuetainment.

00:33:12.040 A pleasure.

00:33:12.540 Appreciate you.

00:33:13.540 I really enjoyed it.

00:33:14.040 Thank you.

00:33:14.540 Thanks everybody for listening.

00:33:15.660 And by the way, if you haven't already subscribed to Valuetainment on iTunes, please do so.

00:33:20.140 Give us a five star, write a review if you haven't already.

00:33:23.120 And if you have any questions for me that you may have, you can always find me on Snapchat,

00:33:26.920 Instagram, Facebook, or YouTube.

00:33:29.200 Just search my name, Patrick Bid David.

00:33:31.100 And I actually do respond back when you snap me or send me a message on Instagram.

00:33:36.060 With that being said, have a great day today.

00:33:37.980 Take care, everybody.

00:33:38.700 Bye-bye.

Valuetainment - August 14, 2019

Episode 355： US Ambassador To Mexico Talks Trade War And Border

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