Valuetainment - November 25, 2019


Episode 393： Who Can Beat Trump In 2020


Episode Stats


Length

28 minutes

Words per minute

209.61305

Word count

5,883

Sentence count

521

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged

Hate speech

7

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, Patrick Medvee and I discuss the history of presidential election landslides and explain why Donald Trump can t beat Donald Trump in 2020. We also talk about why George H.W. Bush and George W.J. Bush are the only two candidates who have ever won a presidential election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 30 seconds. One time for the underdog. Ignition sequence start. Let me see you put them up. Reach the sky, turn the stars up above. Cause it's one time for the underdog. One time for the underdog.
00:00:17.240 I'm Patrick Medevi, host of IITM, and today we're going to talk about who can actually beat Donald Trump in 2020 election.
00:00:25.060 So let's get right into it. By the way, this is going to be probably the most technically challenging election to win because the moving parts today are way more than they've ever been.
00:00:36.240 So strategically, winning this one is like winning a war in ways no country or nation has ever had to face. Very technical to win today's election, but we'll cover that.
00:00:46.960 Let's first go into the history books. Okay. From 1920 till today, who's won presidency and what are some events that are taking place?
00:00:54.220 Obviously, 2020 we don't know yet. We have President Trump as a Republican nominee. If he stays this way, then we have the Democratic nominee that we'll find out who it's going to be.
00:01:02.680 There's a lot of guys fighting for, but we'll find out who it's going to be.
00:01:04.760 2016 Trump meets Hillary Clinton, 306 to 232. Then it's Romney, Obama. Obama wins 332 to 206. McCain-Obama. Obama wins 365 to 173.
00:01:17.720 Kerry went against Bush Jr. in 2004. 286 to 251. Bush wins. Bush Jr. against Gore. Very close one. Nader was also competing in this one.
00:01:27.240 You're looking at 271 to 266. One of the closest elections of all time where Florida had to come out and figure out and recount all this stuff.
00:01:37.340 Anyways, Bush Jr. ends up winning and beats Al Gore.
00:01:40.380 1996 Bob Dole against Clinton. Clinton wins Bill, 379 to 159, a landslide.
00:01:47.180 And Bill Clinton also beat Bush Sr. four years prior to that, 370 to 168.
00:01:52.980 And in that year, 1992, there's an interview done with George Bush Sr. before he passed away.
00:01:58.180 And the interviewer asked the question about, what are your thoughts about Ross Perl?
00:02:02.160 It was the only topic he didn't want to talk about because he got upset when the name Ross Perl was mentioned.
00:02:07.900 Because if Ross Perl doesn't run in that election, odds are George Bush Sr. would have won again.
00:02:13.800 He was a former director of CIA, decorated type of a resume.
00:02:17.880 But Ross Perl helped Bill Clinton become president. Very interesting election.
00:02:21.960 Then prior to that, I was senior against Dukakis.
00:02:24.380 Obviously, senior wins 426 to 111.
00:02:27.660 It was interesting when Dukakis tried to go around in the tank and didn't look good.
00:02:31.620 Military kind of people started making fun of them.
00:02:33.760 And in one of the cases during the debate, somebody asked him, what would you do if somebody, you know, was to rape your wife?
00:02:40.260 Would you want that person to get the death penalty? 0.64
00:02:42.840 And instead of showing any kind of emotion on what happened to his wife, he just went very illogical.
00:02:47.940 And the American people are like, does this guy have a heart?
00:02:50.040 He just, the person that asks you the question in the debate, that's your wife.
00:02:52.740 How do you answer just like that?
00:02:54.080 Like, it's normal.
00:02:54.740 You can't answer like that.
00:02:55.760 Where is your heart?
00:02:56.820 And so that lost, and the other tank thing hurt him, and the next thing you know, he loses.
00:03:00.240 By the way, he had a chance of actually beating Bush Sr., but ended up changing due to debates and a couple other things.
00:03:05.180 Reagan, Bondale, 525 to 13.
00:03:09.720 Landslide is what we're talking about.
00:03:11.180 And then Reagan, Carter, also a landslide, 489 to 49.
00:03:15.460 And then Ford against Carter.
00:03:16.820 Carter, one close race, 297 to 241.
00:03:19.960 Prior to that, Nixon went against McGovern, 520 to 17.
00:03:24.780 Landslide, second biggest landslide, based on what we're talking about here.
00:03:29.200 Third biggest landslide we'll talk about here in a minute.
00:03:31.280 Why McGovern lost is a very interesting story on what some of the guys, the nominees, when it comes down to the real debate.
00:03:38.620 This decision, one decision, hurt McGovern from the chances of beating Nixon, but it didn't happen.
00:03:44.440 Nixon went against Humphrey, beat him out 302 to 191.
00:03:47.960 George Wallace was also in it, but he won that one.
00:03:50.300 In 1964, Goldwater went against Lyndon Johnson, and that one, obviously, Goldwater lost as a Republican.
00:03:55.740 LBJ won 46 to 52.
00:03:58.580 And this was a time, the reason why it's a landslide is because Goldwater didn't necessarily support civil rights.
00:04:03.940 And prior to that, in 1960, African Americans voted 60% of African Americans voted Democrat, 40% voted Republican.
00:04:11.960 But after Goldwater, the next election, for what he did, it went from 64% to 92% of African Americans voting Democrat,
00:04:21.700 because they were not happy about a Republican taking a position there.
00:04:25.020 So it shifted the African American vote to pretty much all Democratic, because of that one single event that takes place.
00:04:32.140 Nixon, JFK, obviously JFK wins 303 to 219.
00:04:36.120 This is very interesting, because during that time, in 1950 in America, elections were being shown on TV and radio.
00:04:44.180 Only 11% of Americans in 1950 had a TV.
00:04:48.280 One more time.
00:04:48.820 1950, 11% had a TV.
00:04:51.400 1960, 88% had a TV.
00:04:54.080 So when the 1960 debate took place between Nixon and John F. Kennedy, what people didn't know is
00:05:00.920 Nixon had just come out of the hospital, and he was sick, he was hospitalized for several days,
00:05:07.080 he didn't shave, he had a 5 o'clock shave, he looked totally tired, and John F. Kennedy showed up tanned,
00:05:13.340 looking good, perfectly shaped, nice suit.
00:05:15.580 88% of Americans had TV to watch and said, oh my gosh, John F. Kennedy won.
00:05:18.980 But the interesting thing part, was that everybody that was listening to the radio, they said Nixon won.
00:05:24.020 Things changed against TV, changed the game.
00:05:26.540 JFK wins.
00:05:27.340 Eisenhower against Stevenson, 457 to 73.
00:05:31.180 Eisenhower wins.
00:05:32.420 Back-to-back, same candidates, 442 to 89.
00:05:35.920 Dewey against Truman, 303 to 189.
00:05:39.080 Truman wins.
00:05:39.880 Dewey goes against FDR.
00:05:41.200 Obviously, FDR wins.
00:05:42.480 FDR beats Wilkie.
00:05:43.460 FDR beats Landon.
00:05:44.540 I mean, these are just landslides.
00:05:45.860 FDR beats Hoover.
00:05:46.580 Look at the score of what it was like.
00:05:49.320 523 to 8.
00:05:50.540 That is a landslide of landslides.
00:05:52.640 It's the greatest landslide in the last 100 years.
00:05:55.280 Then you've got Hoover goes against Smith.
00:05:56.640 Hoover wins.
00:05:57.260 And then Coolidge goes against Robert Lafollette, and he wins.
00:06:00.700 And then last but not least, Harding goes against Coase, and he wins as well.
00:06:04.180 404 to 127.
00:06:05.280 So when you look at this, a couple things to think about.
00:06:07.140 The yellows is when a president, the existing president, runs for re-election, and they lose.
00:06:12.960 Bush Sr. lost.
00:06:14.580 Carter lost for re-election.
00:06:16.040 Ford didn't ever get nominated for president or vice president.
00:06:19.240 It just so happens that it was a tricky thing that happened that he ended up becoming a president.
00:06:23.560 But when he did run for re-election, he lost.
00:06:26.100 And then obviously Hoover lost as well when against FDR.
00:06:28.180 So when you're looking at this, it's important to know history and events that shift everything
00:06:32.980 with politics.
00:06:33.660 You've got to realize, a lot of things up here that shifted had to do with social media.
00:06:38.580 You know, Trump had to do with Twitter.
00:06:40.540 Obama had to do with Facebook.
00:06:42.520 You know, it had to do with YouTube.
00:06:44.080 A lot changed there when people started looking at this stuff.
00:06:46.640 Now, today's topics.
00:06:48.760 You hear a lot of different things that's being debated.
00:06:51.120 What could cause an election to be won or lost?
00:06:54.340 What are the topics that are people wanting to know about?
00:06:56.520 People that are watching right now.
00:06:57.940 I was at a place the other day.
00:06:59.360 Guy asked me a question saying, Pat, I'm in Yontville.
00:07:02.520 Yontville is by Napa Valley.
00:07:04.560 Yontville, one of the fun factors, it's a city that has more Michelin star restaurants
00:07:08.320 in Yontville than any other city in the world.
00:07:10.780 Because people with money go to this place.
00:07:13.300 And a guy comes up and he says, hey, Pat, so what do you think is going to happen with
00:07:15.480 the economy?
00:07:16.280 What do you think is going to be taking place?
00:07:17.600 I said, there's so many moving parts today.
00:07:20.080 More than my entire, in my generation, I've never seen so many different moving parts.
00:07:24.940 There's so many things changing that you've got to almost pay attention to the things
00:07:27.660 that's going on.
00:07:28.140 So here's a few things.
00:07:28.760 So five key geopolitical issues that are trending right now, number one is power plays by different
00:07:32.940 countries.
00:07:33.420 What's going to happen?
00:07:34.000 China's trying to play power plays. 0.52
00:07:36.060 U.S., Russia, we're talking about trade wars, sanctions, 5G, AI.
00:07:40.480 This is all taking place.
00:07:42.160 And even right now, conversations of China willing to work with U.S.
00:07:46.140 And they're willing to share the 5G technology.
00:07:48.200 They're going back and forth.
00:07:49.100 All of this stuff.
00:07:50.260 I did a video called the U.S.-China trade war.
00:07:52.680 I think ended up getting two and a half, three million views.
00:07:54.640 And one of the things that I said is, Trump's playing the card of 5G with sanctions on China
00:08:00.840 with the hopes of China being able to give the technology of 5G for U.S. to be able to
00:08:05.160 do it.
00:08:06.060 And they weren't going to give it to U.S. because a lot of 57 different countries apparently
00:08:09.820 were going to get it, but not the U.S.
00:08:11.680 But now China's kind of starting to be open to because the whole Made in China 2025 plan
00:08:15.600 to become the largest, most powerful empire in the world is kind of shifted just because
00:08:20.140 of sanctions that we have.
00:08:21.020 So we don't still know what's going to happen here, but it's definitely one of the issues.
00:08:24.580 The second point is global economic risk, which is the market crash.
00:08:28.140 A lot of things pending with a market crash.
00:08:30.140 That could definitely hurt Trump because Trump is always using the economy card.
00:08:35.100 So if it doesn't work for President Trump, that's going to hurt him.
00:08:37.660 Obviously, Brexit, EU, Iran. 0.52
00:08:39.740 Iran is not backing down. 0.77
00:08:41.600 I mean, they're not sitting there saying, okay, U.S., let's find a way to negotiate.
00:08:44.740 And the whole controversy is what just happened.
00:08:46.880 The foreign minister, if you haven't seen the sit-down with CNN, one of the commentators
00:08:51.540 on CNN, sit-down with the foreign minister of Iran, Mohammad Zarif, you should hear how
00:08:57.520 he answers just the first two minutes.
00:09:00.060 Matter of fact, Kai, let's put the link below.
00:09:02.040 Very obvious.
00:09:03.460 He's not being cocky, arrogant.
00:09:04.800 He's just saying, if you want to go to war, we're ready.
00:09:07.640 Let's do it.
00:09:08.040 But we're not backing down.
00:09:08.980 So rather than expecting them to say, let's sit down and negotiate, they're not willing to
00:09:13.460 do that.
00:09:13.760 So that could be friction, especially during a time like this.
00:09:16.420 Point number three, Saudi stresses and global energy market.
00:09:19.480 Obviously, we know what happened with Saudi recently, where they're blaming Iran, Yemen,
00:09:25.200 who did it, we're not taking responsibility.
00:09:27.300 Then how did you get a strong drone like this to be able to attack?
00:09:30.540 That's not possible to go hundreds of miles.
00:09:32.920 People, regular guys, can't have the kind of money to be able to have a drone like that.
00:09:36.100 And Iran is saying, it's not us.
00:09:37.680 They said they did it.
00:09:38.500 We don't want to investigate it.
00:09:39.660 And it's, again, oil, who's going to have the power of oil in the Middle East, Iran,
00:09:44.220 Iraq, Libya, terror attacks.
00:09:46.440 A lot of that is in the same place.
00:09:48.040 And then four is an eventful year for Latin America.
00:09:51.580 Mexico has a new president who's somewhat like a Bernie Sanders socialist.
00:09:55.280 Brazil has a new president that's somewhat a Donald Trump capitalist.
00:09:59.060 He's changing the game over there with capitalism.
00:10:01.740 Venezuela going through what they're going through with Maduro, and there's still friction
00:10:05.160 there with oil.
00:10:06.000 So Latin America has a lot to do with the election.
00:10:08.720 An impending war that any time anything could take place.
00:10:11.180 There's a lot of moving parts right now.
00:10:12.740 President Trump is obviously saying that he is very hesitant to go to war.
00:10:16.320 A lot of people are saying, we've got to go attack, we've got to go attack, we've got
00:10:18.580 to go attack.
00:10:19.360 He's kind of holding back because he's never been for war.
00:10:22.660 If there's one thing about him the last 30 years, he's never been for war, and he's trying
00:10:26.500 to avoid it from going, but we'll see what's going to be taking place.
00:10:28.620 So then there's other issues.
00:10:30.000 Immigration.
00:10:30.460 You hear people talk about immigration.
00:10:32.600 What are we going to do with this wall?
00:10:33.760 What are we going to do with crimes and ICE and the kids?
00:10:36.920 All these things are topics that these candidates are going to talk about.
00:10:39.760 College debt.
00:10:40.980 Elizabeth Warren is talking about the fact that she wants to help the 42 million students
00:10:47.560 that have the debt to wipe theirs out.
00:10:49.740 But Bernie Sanders is going to a whole different level saying, I want to wipe out $1.6 trillion
00:10:54.260 and let's write it off.
00:10:55.720 Let's just eliminate all of it.
00:10:57.480 So, you know, it sounds noble, but can we afford it to say $1.6 trillion?
00:11:02.860 Because is the issue the debt that we write off, or is the issue colleges, why are they
00:11:08.180 charging so much?
00:11:09.100 Why does it cost so much to go to school?
00:11:11.240 Maybe it's not a debt issue.
00:11:12.540 Maybe it's a price issue that colleges need to change their pricing.
00:11:15.800 But that's going to be coming up.
00:11:16.860 Medicare for all.
00:11:17.540 You hear a lot of people saying, who raise your hand if you're Medicare for all?
00:11:20.420 They raise their hands automatically during the category when they do that.
00:11:23.880 Then you got the Green New Deal, marijuana legalization.
00:11:26.000 It's not as big as it was before because it's pretty much being accepted by a lot of states.
00:11:30.340 UBI is going to come up.
00:11:31.300 It's one of the reasons why Andrew Yang came up because at least he came up saying, this
00:11:35.120 is my plan.
00:11:36.560 He went from no one knowing who he is a day before, and then all of a sudden everyone
00:11:40.520 is saying Andrew Yang, Yang gang, created a ton of momentum, passed up by a lot of people.
00:11:44.880 I think he's number four right now as one of the candidates.
00:11:47.640 Then it's criminal justice, cyber security, electoral college.
00:11:50.420 Guns, medication, military, a lot of these that will come up.
00:11:53.600 Now, here's my ideas when it's coming down to 2020 election.
00:11:58.820 If I'm looking at who's winning today, there's 10 things I'm going to be thinking about.
00:12:02.380 If I'm on the Democratic side, obviously I know who I'm facing off.
00:12:05.240 And the easiest way to try to beat them is maybe the impeachment thing.
00:12:09.120 But this whole campaign of impeaching can backfire so much because it backfired on Republicans
00:12:15.460 years ago and it hurt them for a long time.
00:12:18.700 So if they do this, this whole impeachment process of needing two-thirds of Senate while
00:12:24.920 the Senate majority is Republican, to be able to beat the Senate majority at a time like
00:12:29.780 this, you've got to be able to control the House.
00:12:31.400 And it's just not as easy as they're making it out to be.
00:12:34.380 So I'm surprised, quite frankly, myself that Anansi Pelosi is going out there being that
00:12:38.540 public about being able to do something like this.
00:12:41.100 Knowing the results are you've got to convince the Senate two-thirds.
00:12:44.080 How are you going to do it?
00:12:44.900 You may be able to have it in place, but you can't finalize it.
00:12:47.360 So it's a move that the only time it makes sense to go and propose impeachment is if you
00:12:52.940 are certain you have all of it in place.
00:12:54.780 And they don't.
00:12:55.320 So it's way too risky to do that.
00:12:56.540 But let me give you a couple things.
00:12:57.800 Impact.
00:12:58.240 2020 election.
00:12:59.100 Number one is matchup.
00:13:00.580 Let me explain to you what I mean by matchup.
00:13:01.980 In sports, basketball, if I am the best team in the NBA and I have a great center and I'm
00:13:10.060 facing you, if you don't have somebody to match up with me and I'm the best player, you're
00:13:15.440 going to have a hard time competing against me if I'm the most dominant team in the league
00:13:19.780 and it's because of a big man and you don't have nobody to face off against me.
00:13:23.680 There's got to be some kind of a matchup there, right?
00:13:25.720 So the matchup's going to be Obama goes against McCain, young, McCain has a bigger resume,
00:13:31.540 but people are like, I don't know, I just, McCain doesn't excite me.
00:13:34.900 Nice, man, good resume, see the video, POW, respect.
00:13:38.560 But Obama gets up there and talks and smiles and wife smart and both and man, I just feel
00:13:44.500 good.
00:13:44.960 Matchup.
00:13:45.740 Favor, Obama.
00:13:47.100 Matchup.
00:13:47.700 Bill Clinton, boy senior.
00:13:49.280 Boy senior, you know, he's the typical guy that's, you know, been in politics for so much
00:13:54.120 and been in CIA and man, he's so like part of the institution and he's part of the swamp.
00:13:59.500 Do you want somebody like that?
00:14:00.560 Or maybe you bring somebody like a Bill Clinton who's young and vibrant and at the time Hillary
00:14:06.300 was like also pretty powerful with the matchup, right?
00:14:09.680 And the matchup was in, there was also Ross Pro that kind of helped out.
00:14:12.020 Reagan, Carter, oh my gosh, Reagan, dream America's the greatest country in the world
00:14:16.480 and Carter's like, well, we are not the best nation, we got some work to do.
00:14:20.300 It's the matchup, right?
00:14:21.540 So who's going to match up best with Trump?
00:14:23.540 Watch this.
00:14:24.720 I wrote out a chart here, okay?
00:14:27.100 Meaning, far left, liberal, far right, Republican.
00:14:31.280 Let's put the furthest right, Ted Cruz, right?
00:14:33.820 Ted Cruz is pretty much conservative in every policy you can think about, far right conservative.
00:14:39.620 Let's just say Ted Cruz.
00:14:41.060 Prior to that is Reagan, right in the middle of him and Trump.
00:14:43.700 Trump is, in my eyes, not really a Republican.
00:14:47.060 I see Trump more as an independent, leaning right.
00:14:50.120 It's really what he is.
00:14:51.060 It's like certain issues that many Republicans are like, what are you talking about?
00:14:54.440 You're okay with that?
00:14:55.060 Yeah, I'm okay.
00:14:55.400 It's not even an issue.
00:14:56.480 I don't want to talk about it.
00:14:57.400 So if we put Trump here and we put Bill Clinton somewhat left, okay, when he became a president,
00:15:04.000 he wasn't far left.
00:15:05.320 This is why he was good, where a lot of people liked him, minus Monica Lewinsky.
00:15:09.160 He actually wasn't a bad president.
00:15:10.180 He was a good president.
00:15:11.660 And he was okay with Newt Gingrich.
00:15:13.540 And I know some people always comment and say, how could you say he was a good president?
00:15:16.680 He was willing to go across the aisle and say, Newt, what do we want to do about this?
00:15:19.680 And Newt's like, this economy works.
00:15:21.540 And then boom, the economy was doing really good.
00:15:24.000 Obama's probably, people thought Obama was way more socialist.
00:15:26.960 He's not socialist.
00:15:27.860 He's probably a little bit left-hand bill because he came out with the Obamacare.
00:15:31.960 And then it's Warren to the left of Obama.
00:15:34.300 And then it's Sanders to the left of Warren.
00:15:37.360 So when you look at this and say the Democratic chairman or campaign manager or whoever it
00:15:44.320 is that's watching this, DNC chairman's watching this, he likes far left.
00:15:47.960 But today, far left is going to lose the people in the middle.
00:15:52.080 Trump won because a lot of the people in the middle said, okay, I can go this way.
00:15:56.920 I'll go this way.
00:15:58.180 If they really want to have somebody that can have a real matchup about him, with him,
00:16:03.000 it can't be somebody that's on the far left.
00:16:04.900 So we have to keep up with the matchup to see what's going to take place there.
00:16:07.820 Now again, they're going to choose whoever they're going to choose because it's going
00:16:10.000 to be based on who votes.
00:16:11.300 Number two, choosing the right VP.
00:16:12.900 Let me explain to you what I mean by right VP.
00:16:14.600 Do you remember here when I explained the story about Nixon and McGovern, why he lost 520-17?
00:16:20.320 Here's why.
00:16:20.960 McGovern wins the nominee.
00:16:22.960 He calls all these guys to be his vice president.
00:16:27.200 They all say no.
00:16:28.220 He makes the phone call to Senator Eagleton, who says yes, and he becomes his VP, right?
00:16:35.080 He says, I'll agree to do it because McGovern wanted to win the Catholic vote, so he brings 0.97
00:16:40.500 him in, but he doesn't vet the VP to find out what his background is.
00:16:44.300 August 1st, they announced that this guy's going to be the VP.
00:16:46.960 18 days later, he drops out because three times he was hospitalized for depression, and
00:16:53.400 two times he went through electroshock therapy.
00:16:56.860 Two times.
00:16:57.580 And once they came out, they're like, if you can't choose the right VP, how can you make
00:17:01.780 the right decisions as a president?
00:17:03.240 So whoever becomes the nominee on the Democratic side, who are they going to choose as a VP?
00:17:08.040 Very critical.
00:17:08.780 They've got to do the proper background and betting from now.
00:17:10.800 Now, if I'm working for Warren, Sanders, Biden, any of the main names, I'm already vetting
00:17:16.700 everybody's background right now to see what they have and what they don't have.
00:17:20.520 I'm not waiting until then, and I'm kind of starting to do the matchup to see what's
00:17:24.080 going to be taking place.
00:17:25.640 Next, anti-campaign versus pro-campaign.
00:17:28.120 You've seen a lot of people saying, all I know is when it comes down to the day of voting
00:17:33.860 for a new president, as long as Trump's not president, that's what matters.
00:17:37.300 Okay, rawr, awesome.
00:17:41.340 It may sound exciting, but that campaign doesn't win.
00:17:45.100 Let me explain to you why it doesn't win.
00:17:47.400 Because anti doesn't necessarily mean we know your plans.
00:17:51.980 O'Rourke is all anti-Trump, anti-Trump, white supremacist, all this stuff.
00:17:56.440 Nobody has any clue what his plans are.
00:17:59.500 And he goes and jeans picture and vanity fair and look at me, I'm so cool, people are going
00:18:04.300 to like me.
00:18:04.760 My name is Beto, I'm white, but I can talk Spanish, and I'm trying to connect with them.
00:18:09.980 But what are your plans?
00:18:11.760 What are you going to be doing?
00:18:13.340 If you only campaign around anti-Trump, you will not win.
00:18:17.420 If it's only anti-Trump.
00:18:19.100 There's got to be a plan.
00:18:20.020 Even Trump went up there and says what?
00:18:21.920 Make America a grain again. 0.90
00:18:23.460 Wall, immigration, here's what I'm doing. 1.00
00:18:25.900 And he went and started preaching it, right?
00:18:27.860 You're seeing some people doing that with their campaigns.
00:18:29.900 Elizabeth Warren knows what she wants to do.
00:18:31.680 Bernie, you know what he wants to do.
00:18:33.220 Andrew Yank, you know what he wants to do.
00:18:34.800 Joe Biden, you somewhat know what he wants to do.
00:18:36.920 You kind of know what he wants to do.
00:18:39.020 Those are the people that have their ideas.
00:18:40.660 But if they go to a whole anti-Trump thing, it's going to backfire on them.
00:18:43.420 Because typically, history tells us you don't win when you go anti-Trump.
00:18:46.080 You've got to go policies.
00:18:47.940 Next, economy, four.
00:18:50.020 Economy's very good right now.
00:18:51.020 So if you try to go against the economy, you don't have a really good argument.
00:18:54.720 People are going to say, economy's already doing good.
00:18:56.360 What are you going to do to the economy that's not already happening right now?
00:18:58.500 So, but they have to be ready that if one of these things hits and economy shifts, they
00:19:05.440 got to have their story prepared.
00:19:07.060 Like, it's like playing football.
00:19:08.420 Somebody's coming from this side.
00:19:10.020 You got to have the blitz.
00:19:11.140 You got to have the blocking.
00:19:12.160 You got to have the fullback.
00:19:13.100 You got to have all that stuff prepared before it happens.
00:19:15.600 So they got to be prepared in case Dow drops 3,000, 4,000, 5,000 points, what is your argument
00:19:21.200 going to be now?
00:19:21.760 Because that's going to change the game.
00:19:23.000 So number five is focusing on areas of weakness.
00:19:25.320 Let me explain to you what I mean by this.
00:19:26.460 So if you took all these policies of Trump, see where his weak go there that matters to
00:19:31.880 the American people.
00:19:33.220 For instance, if you go to marijuana, and that's what you're going to focus on, but American 0.63
00:19:36.680 people are already saying, listen, man, I got it.
00:19:39.320 I'm good.
00:19:39.840 You know, marijuana, it's fine.
00:19:41.640 It's okay.
00:19:42.440 It's not really going to get that kind of traction.
00:19:44.020 It's got to be one of these issues that matters the most to the people that's going to get
00:19:48.240 traction, or you create one, like Andrew Yang created UBI.
00:19:51.680 I never thought about this.
00:19:53.320 AI is coming.
00:19:54.220 If it comes, it's going to take jobs.
00:19:55.680 We're going to lose trillions of dollars of jobs.
00:19:57.780 We need to give everybody $1,000, and people are like, remember the first time you heard
00:20:00.820 about it, you're like, $1,000 a month?
00:20:02.660 How can we afford that?
00:20:03.580 And it's like, well, maybe that makes sense.
00:20:05.720 He had a plan that no one was talking about.
00:20:08.720 Then everybody started doing research that brought a lot of publicity to him.
00:20:11.840 And now he's being interviewed all over the place because his topic resonated with a certain
00:20:16.460 audience.
00:20:17.540 So let me give you an example here.
00:20:19.120 Obama is debating Hillary.
00:20:20.740 There's a very special moment there.
00:20:22.580 The moderator asks Obama a question.
00:20:24.440 He says, hey, Senator Obama, you've been accused of plagiarizing and using other lines of other
00:20:31.180 people they use in their own debates.
00:20:33.180 In this state, this person used these lines, and you used it.
00:20:36.120 What do you think about the people that are saying you are plagiarizing your message, and
00:20:40.880 it's not really you.
00:20:41.900 You're using other people's message.
00:20:44.540 And Obama got up there and says, look, there's really two lines that I used.
00:20:48.160 It was this line and it was this line.
00:20:49.480 And it was used by this guy.
00:20:50.520 My campaign manager, whom I trust, told me the language of what we want to do is this
00:20:55.900 is what we want to do, and these are some of the things that we may want to talk about.
00:20:58.460 And I used the line.
00:20:59.340 Yes, I did.
00:21:00.300 I did use the line.
00:21:01.200 But here's what I want to do.
00:21:02.580 I hope this debate is not going to get petty, and we're going to talk about lines rather
00:21:07.580 than policies.
00:21:08.960 I'd much rather spend time on policies than he starts going through listing his policies.
00:21:12.560 Brilliant.
00:21:13.360 He went to what matters to the American people and says, because American people want to
00:21:17.000 be able to figure out pa, pa, pa, pa, pa, right?
00:21:19.080 Policies.
00:21:20.260 Then, Hillary, you know, what do you think about this?
00:21:23.300 And she says, well, you know, Barack, I can appreciate that you have a very good way
00:21:27.740 of speaking and communicating to people.
00:21:29.280 You're a great speaker, but look, if you're going to go out there and plagiarize, it's
00:21:33.920 not really what you stand for.
00:21:35.400 It's just like being Xerox, your copy machine.
00:21:38.160 She says that.
00:21:39.000 Then Obama says, that's not what that is, Hillary. 0.97
00:21:41.440 Like, it's a shot.
00:21:42.720 So that moment, people are like, she went for a shot, and he went for policies.
00:21:49.480 We know who ends up winning, right?
00:21:51.280 So if you're going to go a direction and get away from weaknesses, you have to be able to
00:21:55.900 go back and stick to policies.
00:21:57.220 A lot of people don't know how to do that.
00:21:58.360 We'll see who's going to be able to do that this time.
00:21:59.860 Six, likability matters.
00:22:01.500 People like Obama.
00:22:02.860 They just did.
00:22:03.560 People like Bill Clinton.
00:22:04.700 People like George Bush.
00:22:06.340 You know, people like, what do you call it, Reagan.
00:22:08.740 People like some of these candidates.
00:22:10.580 People like JFK.
00:22:11.420 Now, Trump, his audience likes him because he's tough.
00:22:14.780 That's still a part of likability.
00:22:16.380 It's not like, because Trump's the guy that's not, you know, you don't just like Trump.
00:22:21.280 You either love him or you hate him.
00:22:22.640 It's a love-hate relationship, right?
00:22:23.800 But the people who like him, they love him.
00:22:26.420 It's like, oh my gosh, he stands up.
00:22:28.660 He's going to go against Swamp.
00:22:29.780 He still has a high likability score with the people in his party.
00:22:34.260 And it's increasing in certain areas and decreasing in certain areas.
00:22:38.940 But likability matters as well.
00:22:40.100 So when you look at the candidates, who's likable?
00:22:42.180 Seven, debate approach.
00:22:43.900 Dirty or clean?
00:22:45.720 You know, you look at the games.
00:22:47.660 Like, if people try to play the game against Trump, the way Trump is playing it, and you
00:22:51.940 say, I'm going to go after him the way he goes after people.
00:22:54.440 But if it's not naturally part of your approach, you're going to fail.
00:22:57.600 Because Trump has been Trump for 70-something years.
00:23:01.280 He's been witty for 70-something years.
00:23:03.360 He didn't take a book on Masterclass or go watch a video on YouTube saying, 20 steps to
00:23:08.140 being witty.
00:23:08.720 You don't learn how to be witty.
00:23:10.020 You either are witty or you're not witty.
00:23:11.720 So if you try to go at him with being witty, you're going to lose.
00:23:14.960 Just ask Rubio and Ted Cruz.
00:23:16.300 They couldn't do it, because it doesn't work if you go at it with him that way.
00:23:19.840 It's not.
00:23:20.540 You've got to go, look, I understand you want to go this direction.
00:23:22.920 Here's the policies.
00:23:23.740 But look, in reality, look what's happened in these three areas that you haven't paid
00:23:26.240 attention to.
00:23:27.300 Let's focus to policies.
00:23:28.560 So if I'm competing against him, I'm saying, let's focus here.
00:23:32.340 American people want to know this.
00:23:33.820 Let's focus here.
00:23:34.960 Let's focus policies.
00:23:36.360 He's going to be confused, but he's playing your game.
00:23:39.020 Like in sports, if you're going against somebody, you want them to play your game.
00:23:41.940 Now you play their game.
00:23:43.160 You play their game.
00:23:44.060 They've been playing their game longer than you.
00:23:45.440 You're going to lose.
00:23:46.500 Make them play your game.
00:23:48.320 We'll see if he's going to do that or not.
00:23:50.500 They're going to do that or not.
00:23:51.200 Number eight, social media team.
00:23:52.500 It's very important right now.
00:23:53.320 Whichever candidate has got a strong social media team, it's going to matter.
00:23:55.520 Social media team is so important today.
00:23:57.580 Obama has a strong social media team.
00:23:59.560 Trump has an incredibly strong social media team.
00:24:02.220 Quick videos, quick edits, creative ideas, videos.
00:24:06.680 You know, video that gets six million views, two million views, eight million views, three
00:24:10.280 million views.
00:24:10.860 The moment you have a line, boom, put that up there.
00:24:12.800 The moment you have another one, put that up there.
00:24:14.580 Social media team is going to be very, very critical because, you know, when we're talking
00:24:18.300 at 88, Nixon went against JFK and there was, not 88, 88% of TVs, people had TVs in America
00:24:26.780 in 1960 versus 11% in 1950.
00:24:29.880 Social media, video.
00:24:31.420 Oh my gosh, did you hear what Elizabeth Warren just said to Trump?
00:24:34.840 Oh my goodness, did you hear what Bernie said?
00:24:36.860 Did you hear what Biden just said?
00:24:38.780 Did you hear what?
00:24:39.480 Because that's the video.
00:24:40.340 It's viral.
00:24:40.820 Share, share, share, share.
00:24:42.220 Social media team.
00:24:43.020 And then nine is work ethic.
00:24:44.000 When you look at Trump versus Hillary Clinton.
00:24:46.380 Hillary Clinton did 63 rallies.
00:24:48.280 Trump did 132 rallies.
00:24:49.620 You can't compete with 132 rallies if you're only going to do 63.
00:24:52.920 Every time you saw President Trump, another Facebook Live, another Facebook Live, another
00:24:56.520 Facebook Live, one Facebook Live, Hillary.
00:24:58.760 Another Facebook Live, another Facebook Live, another Facebook Live, one Hillary.
00:25:02.280 You can't compete with those kinds of numbers.
00:25:03.820 And last but not least is media.
00:25:04.900 Here's the thing about media.
00:25:06.600 You know how people say, well, everybody on the left, and the media's on the left.
00:25:10.480 They are, just so you know that.
00:25:11.760 The only TV station that's on the right is Fox News.
00:25:14.060 Everybody else is on the left.
00:25:15.120 Every one of them is anti-Trump.
00:25:17.700 Let me explain to you what happens here.
00:25:19.180 Let me explain to you what happens here.
00:25:21.180 So one time I'm listening to this guy, Morning Joe.
00:25:23.860 Okay?
00:25:24.360 He works for MSNBC.
00:25:26.620 And he grew up conservative, but he went to a very liberal school.
00:25:30.180 He made the most incredible point.
00:25:31.700 He says, I went to a liberal school.
00:25:33.300 Every time I brought up a point to debate, and I was against the teacher, 20 students would
00:25:42.080 attack me, and the teacher always defended the 20 students.
00:25:45.280 Make sense?
00:25:45.760 Because he's conservative.
00:25:46.600 They're all liberal.
00:25:47.540 So the teacher would say, Larry's right.
00:25:49.020 Bobby's right.
00:25:49.580 Jackie's right.
00:25:50.080 Joe, how do you know if you're right?
00:25:51.680 Because the teacher's liberal.
00:25:52.780 Because the school's liberal.
00:25:54.080 And everybody else in class is pretty much liberal.
00:25:56.040 Right?
00:25:56.700 He said, here's what ended up happening.
00:25:59.120 Every time the teacher agreed with the students, the students didn't need to go do research
00:26:02.820 to make their arguments stronger because the teacher already agreed.
00:26:05.180 But every time they disagreed with me, I had to go make my arguments stronger.
00:26:09.100 Boom.
00:26:09.440 I got better in debating.
00:26:10.680 They did not.
00:26:11.540 Point.
00:26:13.200 All the guys in the media, they get up and say, if Biden went against today, they would
00:26:18.560 win 56% over Trump.
00:26:20.940 What they don't realize is, when you put as if Biden or Warren or Sanders already has an
00:26:27.300 edge against Trump, you know what you're doing.
00:26:29.000 Let me explain to you what this media is doing.
00:26:31.500 You make Democrats not come out to vote.
00:26:35.660 You make liberals not come out to vote.
00:26:38.760 And conservatives watch this on CNN or MSNBC or ABC.
00:26:42.420 And they say, oh my gosh, we're behind.
00:26:44.080 Guys, guys, get everybody.
00:26:45.120 Get everybody.
00:26:45.600 Go vote.
00:26:46.520 So what media doesn't know is, even though they're going to be pro-whoever on the left,
00:26:51.740 they're going to hurt the left because all they do is defend the left and voters don't
00:26:55.420 come out because they think it's already done.
00:26:57.840 If I'm the chairman of either one of those political sides, I'm calling media saying,
00:27:03.640 stop saying we're ahead.
00:27:06.080 Stop saying we're ahead.
00:27:07.720 Guys are not coming out.
00:27:09.200 You got to say we're behind.
00:27:10.880 Because the person that's going to win the 2020 election is the underdog.
00:27:14.100 Trump was the underdog.
00:27:15.060 Obama was the underdog.
00:27:16.260 Last two presidents, the underdog has won.
00:27:18.900 The underdog is winning.
00:27:20.640 Go last four presidents.
00:27:21.900 Bill Clinton was underdog.
00:27:22.980 George Bush was underdog.
00:27:23.960 The underdogs are our last four presidents.
00:27:26.440 If the media wants to help seeing who wins the next election, you better produce an underdog
00:27:32.240 mentality.
00:27:32.820 If you do, you have a shot.
00:27:33.760 If you don't, your next president in 2020 is going to be Donald Trump again.
00:27:39.140 Thanks, everybody, for listening.
00:27:40.820 And by the way, if you haven't already subscribed to Valuetainment on iTunes, please do so.
00:27:45.380 Give us a five-star.
00:27:46.700 Write a review if you haven't already.
00:27:48.280 And if you have any questions for me that you may have, you can always find me on Snapchat,
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00:27:54.320 Just search my name, Patrick David.
00:27:56.200 And I actually do respond back when you snap me or send me a message on Instagram.
00:28:01.220 With that being said, have a great day today.
00:28:02.960 Take care, everybody.
00:28:03.680 Bye-bye.
00:28:03.920 Bye-bye.