Episode 421： US – Iran WWIII Or Regime Collapse
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
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Summary
In this episode, Patrick talks about the events leading up to Soleimani's death, and Iran's possible response to the U.S. military strike on the Iranian embassy in Yemen on June 21st, 2019, and how Iran may retaliate.
Transcript
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I feel I'm so close I could take sweet victory.
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Yeah, why would you bet on Goliath when we got Bet David?
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This world of entrepreneurs, we get no value to haters.
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I'm Patrick Bet, David, your host of Valuetainment.
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Just a few months ago, I did a video on the history of U.S.-Iran Explained.
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Then it was 30 minutes, and it got millions on top of millions of views.
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And now, with the recent conflicts U.S. has been having with Iran,
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everybody asks me, Pat, can you talk about what's going on today with Soleimani,
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Should we be worried about how is U.S. going to respond?
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I go into depth in this episode regarding what's going on with U.S. and Iran today.
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The thing I want you to keep in mind is that I'm not going to cover everything,
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although I'm going to leave the links for you to go out there and do your research.
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But I'm going to give you the main things that took place leading up to the killing of Soleimani
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April 8, 2019, Trump announced the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
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So next, June 20th, U.S. drone shot down by Iranian forces.
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U.S. claimed they were flying on international airspace.
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Iran claims it was Iran's airspace, so they shot it down.
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The next day on June 21st, Trump tweets, he stopped last-minute drone strike as retaliation.
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The following day on June 22nd, Iran said they would respond firmly to U.S. if U.S. did anything.
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On July 1st, Iran exceeds limited amount of enriched uranium,
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which is what the most people are concerned about around the world.
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Following, on September 10th, Bolton gets fired over Iran because Trump was a little bit too concerned.
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A lot of people that know John Bolton, John Bolton really wants to go to war.
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Some even call him a warmonger, so Trump fired him.
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Aramco, that by the way just went public in September.
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Houthis, which is a Yemen rebel group, took responsibility.
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But pretty much everybody around the world knows this was Iran.
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Next, on September 24th, Trump asks countries around the world to tighten economic tension towards Iran at U.N. General Assembly.
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No responsible government should subsidize Iran's bloodlust.
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This is very interesting because at this time, a month after that, I was at Monaco.
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I went to Canada and I spoke to a very strong political figure out of Lebanon.
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And he says, when this took place, they had to tighten all the banks, all the businesses with Iran.
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This really hurt Iran's economy, but they were not feeling it yet.
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They were furious because Iran, all of a sudden, with no warning, raised gas prices by 200 to 300%.
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That was told by the opposition, but Amnesty International said it was around 300.
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Iran denied it regardless that the event took place.
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Next, on December 11th, sanctions on Iran now included shipping and airline industry,
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which is obviously getting tighter and tighter and tighter with making money.
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On December 27th, two days after Christmas, a U.S. contractor was killed in Iraq by Hezbollah,
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And obviously, this infuriated a lot of people on Trump's administration.
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A couple days later, U.S. targets militia sites as a retaliation for the attacks of the contractor that they killed.
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On New Year's Eve, December 31st, a pro-Iranian paramilitary broke into a heavily fortified American embassy in Baghdad.
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Now, obviously, this is like, wait a minute, are you wanting to push the envelope?
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You're pushing yourself right now where the U.S. may retaliate.
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Then comes January 2nd, U.S. Secretary of Defense, Mark Epser, warns Iran may be planning attacks.
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So everybody's like, wait a minute, what do you mean Iran is planning attacks?
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And this leads us to the big event, which is on January 3rd, okay?
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U.S. kills Ghassam Soleimani at Baghdad airport at 1.20 a.m.
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This is very important for you to know what 1.20 a.m. means.
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Iran comes out and says there's going to be a harsh retaliation, okay?
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On January 4th, Trump tweets and threatens Iran that if they do anything, we will hit 52 cultural sites of Iran,
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A couple days later, he took that back and said we couldn't do it because they came back.
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When it comes down to war, you cannot hit cultural sites.
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But afterward, January 5th, Iraqi parliament calls for expulsion of foreign troops, meaning KUS, leave Iraq.
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So Trump says if you want us to leave, we're going to put the war sanctions, worse than Iran, on Iraq.
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And Iraq kind of came back and said, okay, okay, just stay.
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But listen, stop kind of making our life a little bit tougher than what it is right now because Iran is trying to attack us.
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January 6th, Rouhani tweets, those who refer to 52 should also remember the number 290.
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In the tweet, he explains that 290 was the amount of civilians killed on an airline that was shot down under the Reagan administration back in the 80s.
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January 7th, 56 people were killed in the stampede during the ceremony, during the funeral of Soleimani,
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which they had to delay the funeral and actually change some of the times because of the 56 people that were killed.
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Iran comes out and says on January 7th, look, we're willing to work with you.
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We're willing to go peace and make this thing work.
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And U.S. is like, oh, okay, Iran's willing to work with us.
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So after Rouhani says that, watch what they do.
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At 1.20 a.m. on January 8th, Iran shoots 12 missiles and hits Iraqi bases that houses U.S. military forces.
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Then, few hours later, Khamenei comes out and talks to Iranians and says the following.
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This is a way of saying we responded to what U.S. did to us.
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This is the timeline we have so far on what's taking place with U.S. and Iran.
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So now let's talk about who Ghassam Soleimani is.
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Ghassam Soleimani was born in religious city of Rome.
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He was raised in Khamenei, which Khamenei is very well known for politics that they teach and what Iran stands for and traditions.
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And by the way, the funeral was held in Khamenei later on.
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What I told you earlier on April 8th, Trump announced the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
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At the beginning of the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and played many roles until he took over leadership of the Quds Force in 1997.
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IRGC specializes in unconventional warfare and military operations that supports non-state actors.
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These are rebels, militia rebels, in many countries, such as Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, in the Gaza Strip or West Bank, Yemeni, Houthis, Shia militias in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.
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And he is the voice behind all of these guys, supporting them with strategies of what to do next.
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And he is brilliant when it comes down to being strategic.
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But when he passed away, it was said that 82% of Iranians supported him.
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Now, part of this could be propaganda because a lot of times, you know, like there's a lot of Trump supporters that will never say they're Trump supporters until the day comes to go vote.
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But they will never talk about it, never say anything.
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And then, boom, 58 million people show up to go out there and vote from whatever the number is.
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I don't know where you never talked about Trump because they're afraid because they know if you support Trump, maybe the media is going to say stuff to them.
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There were also some people that opposed them but never wanted to say anything.
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These are the people that voted to say we support him 82%.
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He's seen as the potential next leader of Iran.
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Not just a general military strategist, the commander of special forces.
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I want to remind you, I did an interview with Sammy DeWil-Gravano.
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He says, Patrick, never worry about the person that pulls the trigger.
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Always worry about the person that's orchestrating in the back, behind the scenes and pulling the strings of what to do next.
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A lot of times we can talk about it all from everybody's perspective on how glad they are that he's dead.
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You don't mind having a guy like this on your side, if that makes any sense.
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So, you know how everybody has that one friend that everybody fears?
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You don't mind having that guy with you because everyone fears him.
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And if he's your enemy, you've got to get rid of him because he wasn't a supporter of U.S.
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Let's talk about the three reasons why there's always war and havoc in the Middle East.
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Here's some basic things you've got to know about religion.
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93% of the population in the Middle East, they're Muslims.
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This is interesting to know what the breakdown of Muslim is.
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Muslim has two different denominations, if you want to put it, right?
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Now the Sunnis, of the 93% of Muslims in the Middle East, 85% are Sunnis, 15% are Shias.
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In the world population, there's 1.6 billion Muslims worldwide.
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Of the worldwide population, 1.4 billion is Sunnis, 200 million is Shias.
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Now, how did the Sunnis and Shias controversy start?
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When Prophet Muhammad died in 632, he had four followers.
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One of them was Abu Bakr, which was a good friend of his.
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Then it was Umar, Uthman, and then it was Ali, which was his son-in-law.
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When that took place, he hadn't created a succession plan.
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A lot of people said he would have chosen Abu Bakr as his successor,
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because that was his best friend, and it was his number one follower.
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But a lot of people said, no, it's got to be somebody part of his family, it's got to be Ali.
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They voted, and they voted for Abu Bakr to be the leader and the successor of Prophet Muhammad and the Muslim religion.
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They became Sunnis, and those who said Shia Ali, they became Shias.
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To keep that part of mind, you have to know that Iran is mostly Shia.
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90% of Iranian population, the Muslims are Shias, 10% Sunnis.
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And Saudi Arabia is Sunni, so keep that in mind.
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You have Iran is Shia, Iraq is in the middle, and in Saudi is Sunni.
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Now, as we're looking at these things, this was religion.
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Obviously, everyone knows what's going on with oil.
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There's two numbers I want you to be thinking about with oil.
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How many billions of barrels the top five biggest suppliers of oil are?
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Three out of the five top suppliers of oil all live neighboring each other.
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Three out of five are right next to each other.
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Do you think there's a little bit of controversy and conflict going on there with competitiveness?
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And this is a lot of the fracking that we're doing in the Dakotas.
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It's not necessarily that we're bringing it in or we're selling it.
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We're pretty much using everything that we need with the oil because we need it.
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The reason why I put China here is for a point I'll make to you later on.
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How this whole thing could hurt China, you'll see why in a minute.
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By the way, 90% of all nuclear warheads are owned by two countries.
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And there's only nine nations that have nuclear warheads.
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Out of all the countries that we have, only nine have nuclear warheads.
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You mean to tell me Germany has big of an empire that they had?
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Yes, because they signed a treaty that they wouldn't.
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Japan had to do some of the similar things after what happened with U.S.
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Iran is not trusted to own nuclear warheads because people are afraid.
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They could cause havoc here because the world is relying on the supply of oil here.
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The world wants this place to be safe, not just the Middle East.
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So, so far we've talked about the three reasons.
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Let's talk about these countries here, this region.
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They did a survey the other day saying, American voters, can you show on an unlabeled map where
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And only 28% of voters could say, here's where Iran is.
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Not because you wake up in the morning and go study geography.
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You just have better things to do in life than want to study this map, which I understand.
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Then you have Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel is all the way on this
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So, Saudi Arabia, there's a small country called Kuwait.
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And then down here you got Dubai, Oman, Yemen, okay?
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Iraq essentially plays the wall between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
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This gives peace to Saudi Arabia because it is a cushion between them.
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The weaker Iraq is, the more Iran can use their militia from here to come to Saudi.
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So, to do that, I got an illustration here for you to give you an idea of who gets along
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with who in this region of the Middle East, okay?
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I have a Hezbollah, a lot of different things, but I'm just going to talk about three other
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So, if you look at Iran, Iran gets along with Iraq, doesn't get along with Israel,
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That should tell you the whole thing pretty much.
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And if you look at Saudi, they don't get along with Iran or Iraq, especially today on what's
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going on because Iran and Iraq have kind of joined forces a little bit today, right,
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Let me bring you over here on the three countries, Iran, Saudi, and Iraq, okay?
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Their size, land-wise, it's 636,000 square miles.
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Saudi's only 33 million population, but they're 830,000 square miles, okay?
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And then Iraq is only 38 million, but it only has 168,000 square miles.
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If you combine a population of Iraq and Saudi Arabia together, it's still smaller than Iran.
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And if you combine the size of land between Iran and Iraq, it's still smaller than Saudi Arabia.
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So, the reason between this conflict between Iran and Saudi is because years ago, Saudi Arabia
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And when the Ottoman Empire took over Iraq and then there was some conflicts, these guys
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They won their land and they won this land over and they named it Saudi Arabia in 1932,
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So, 1932 is the only timeline that Saudi Arabia has been around.
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It hasn't been around for as long as Iran's been around.
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So, up until this point, Iran was a superpower, oil, all of these things that they had.
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They were still having a lot of conflict because Britain and Russia took over twice and they
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Six years later, they strike oil and they realize they have more oil than anybody else
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around the world at the time until they realized Venezuela's number one.
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But at the time, it was Saudi Arabia has more oil than North America, Central and South
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Everybody looked at Saudi Arabia as the superpower.
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Now, Iran's not happy about it because Saudi's getting detention.
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There's a reason why Iraq's playing a big role, right?
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Iran says Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia calls it Arabian Gulf.
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Matter of fact, there was a time when Michael Wallace is interviewing the Shah and he says the
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As you know, I have been across the Gulf, the Gulf that you call Persian and they call Arabian.
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What was the name that you have read during your school days?
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So, now, obviously, you can tell that, hey, what are you doing calling it Arabian?
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What did they call you when you went to school?
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There's already a little bit of competitiveness going there, right?
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Because Iran and Saudi Arabia have never had a direct fight before, but there's two different
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One is a cold war, which is pretty much everything except killing somebody.
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Meaning threats, propaganda, rumors, anything you do.
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It happened, obviously, between U.S. and Russia for a very, very long time.
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But a form of war that they can go is a cold war.
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What a proxy war is, when you use another nation to instigate them going against you.
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So, for instance, when Iraq is going against Iran, when Saddam Hussein was running the nation,
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Saudi Arabia is helping Iraq to go against Iran because that's a proxy war.
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And when some of the militia is going against Saudi, they, Iran, support the militia to go
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against whoever it is that they're going up against, right?
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They support what militia, that's what you call a proxy war.
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So, they've been going back and forth for a while.
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The current situation, Iran lost their number one general.
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Iran lost the person that was supposed to be the future leader of Iran.
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Iran's regime, Khomeini, Ruola, these guys are excited that this man is a strategist's brain.
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With our philosophies, with our belief system, with the things we believe in, the Shia, Khomeini
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Think about if you lose your number one guy, okay?
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It's on the list because Iran has some of the best hackers, but it's not number one on
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The jugular of global economy called the Strait of Hormuz.
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Okay, you see right here between Iraq and Iran and Saudi?
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Right here is what's called the Strait of Hormuz.
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Why is it called the jugular of global economy?
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Dozens of oil tankers pass through this daily, carrying upwards of 84 million gallons of
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Dozens a day each carrying 84 million gallons of oil.
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20% of the flow of global supply goes through right here.
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76% of the crude oil that moved through the choke point went to Asian market.
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Remember how I said China has oil supply daily of 3.9 million barrels a day?
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So if something happens here, a lot of the Asian market could take a hit.
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If Iran really wanted to get ugly, they would do it right here and they would hurt the world
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Another possibility of a 9-11 that could take place.
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Let me continue on what I think could take place.
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This is where we are weak as a country where U.S. is weak.
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It's almost as if the Democrats and the Republicans, the Democrats would be okay for a war to start
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There is such a major division that anything to get Trump out is a priority, not the protection
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It's like when parents go at it, hardcore, and it's all about mom getting something from
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You know, all this stuff that's taking place and they forget the kids are taking and paying
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You know, he should have came and told Congress that they're going to take out Soleimani.
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If he would have told Congress, Congress would have leaked it.
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They would have never had a shot to killing Soleimani.
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So if the intention was to kill Soleimani, they did the right thing.
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If they would have told Congress, the way our setup is something would have leaked, that
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We would have lost the opportunity of doing that.
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And during election, Democrats and mainstream media is going to go hardcore like never before.
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And the more they do, the more data they're giving to who?
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This is what could be taking place right now because U.S. is weak.
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Obviously, when you look at the whole timeline, Soleimani, three reasons, you know, the conditions
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here between these three nations and then who has retaliation methods of Iran, what U.S.'s weaknesses
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The last thing I want you to be thinking about is the following.
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Obviously, if we play the game of chess, Iran took out a contractor, which many people
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So it's not like it's pawn for pawn or queen for queen.
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That's why Iran's foreign minister said Iran is a very patient nation.
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Well, I mean that Iran is a very patient country.
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We will take our action after necessary deliberation.
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But I'm sure that it will be taken at the time of our choosing, not the time of the United
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Before they made the attacks, is he talking patient like, hey, we send the 12 missiles?
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I think the 12 missiles were simply to save face in front of Iranian people.
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And I think they knew that nobody was going to get killed.
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Here's what I think they knew nobody was going to get killed.
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Because the current administration in U.S. is ran by a man who is very proud.
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Who in the history of U.S. has had a bigger ego than President Donald Trump?
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Actually, think about who is more proud of his accomplishments.
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If you actually think about it, maybe Lyndon Johnson?
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Barack Obama, I'm so proud of what I've done, right?
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And what happens with people that are very proud of their accomplishments?
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Whether you put a Brady, Kobe, Jordan, any of these guys that were the best of the
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best, in their eyes, what do you not do to them?
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You don't publicly humiliate somebody with an ego.
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And if you do, they are willing to go to measures that maybe others are not willing to go to.
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That's why they didn't retaliate, but they just kind of shot the 12 missiles to places
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But I also think the foreign minister says Iran is a patient nation, which means we got time.
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Six months, 12 months, 24 months, post-Trump being gone.
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Maybe when Jimmy Carter was presidency, Iran had the 52 hostages.
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When Reagan was getting elected that day, here's your 52 hostages back because Reagan said,
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we're going to retaliate and get those people back.
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And Iran knew they would retaliate and they don't want to go to war with Reagan.
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Maybe they don't want to go to war with Trump, but maybe they will go to war with the next
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Maybe it's going to be a democratic president that doesn't want to go to war with them.
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We have to make up for it and then blame somebody else and let it kind of slide.
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They're not somebody that's going to forget about this.
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Just listen to what his daughter said and what a lot of the leaders said.
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Now, having said that, in U.S., there is one thing that hasn't happened in this entire
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Neither U.S. nor Iran has touched the other nation's soil.
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Meaning, U.S. hasn't done anything to Iran's soil.
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So, if Iran was to do something to U.S. soil during Trump administration, how far do you
00:27:19.760
That he may go places that were as bad as some of the wars in the past.
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That if you remember Japan, he can go places that maybe others don't want to go to.
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Because he's got control at the top as a president.
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This is going to be bad for everybody around the world.
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But let me tell you why Iran definitely doesn't want to go right now.
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Because the current conditions in Iran remind me of what happened in 1978.
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If the current regime, Khomeini and the rest, don't want to see Iran go through another
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revolution, if they don't figure out a way to become better with U.S., and they keep playing
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And if they lose their people and there's a coup, Iranian people is in their blood.
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If they wanted to do a coup, they could do a coup.
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This is probably the best time to do a coup if you're Iranian people wanting to see the
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And go back to more of a friendly environment where somebody like me can go and vacay, go
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And other people, like back in the days when Elizabeth Taylor was dating Zahedi and, you
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know, all these singers and performers, Dean Martin, Frank Sinatra would go to Iran and
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You know, all these vacation rich people would go to Iran.
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There are many people that would like to go back to those days of Kabbalah Tehran days.
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But the current regime doesn't want it to go there.
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If they push a little too hard, the Iranian people have a good memory.
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Because if you touch my pocket, as a populist, I can't feed my kids.
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I'm in shambles with fights because you want to make up the money of your loss with the
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sanctions of Iran by raising the price of gas with me.
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And we, the people, historically, has always won.
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And if that happens, things could get very, very ugly.
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And by the way, if you haven't already subscribed to Valuetainment on iTunes, please do so.
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And if you have any questions for me that you may have, you can always find me on Snapchat,
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And I actually do respond back when you snap me or send me a message on Instagram.