Episode 450： Coronavirus - How It Shutdown The World
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Summary
In this episode of the podcast, I talk about the coronavirus outbreak, the timeline of events leading up to it, and the 5 types of people that are worried about it. I also talk about what to do if you or someone you know is suffering from it.
Transcript
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I feel I'm so close I could take sweet victory.
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Yeah, why would you bet on Goliath when we got Bet David?
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This world of entrepreneurs, we get no value to haters.
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I mean, the Feds just dropped the rates to zero.
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The last time we did this was in 08, right before a potential depression.
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You may be a parent, a family member, somebody that's running a business, an entrepreneur,
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You want to know more, but you don't have all the time in the world to sit there researching
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On Saturday, I came to the office from morning till night.
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We're going to talk about the timeline of what it led to where we are today.
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We're going to talk about cases in the countries, death in countries, by state.
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The main concern that we have with hospital beds on where we rank versus other countries,
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how infectious this disease is, and the death rate, and then 10 people you ought to follow.
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Yesterday, I was in communication with so many different people.
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I'd say 400 or 500 people through a text or phone call till 1 o'clock in the morning.
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And the conclusion I come up with that there are five different types of people with the
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These are folks that don't really know what's going on.
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They're kind of worried a little bit because everybody else is worried, but they're not
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grabbing paper and finding out what's going on.
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The second kind are those that are probably the biggest threat to what's going on today.
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They don't know what's going on, but they have opinions because they heard something
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from here on a meme or a social media post or something they read over here, and they're
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Then the third kind are the irresponsible people.
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These are people that know what's going on, but they're not making the right responsible
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The fourth kind are those that are into conspiracy theories.
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Let me tell you this because it's more of a juicy story.
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These are people that love gossip, and they want to share this stuff with other people.
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And the fifth kind are those that are the critical thinkers that don't want to listen
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to somebody talk and sensationalize what's going on.
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They want to do research, and they want to go see data, and they want to see what the experts
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Today, I'm sharing with you what these experts are talking about.
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So, the goal is by the time you're done, you're living a busy life, you can say, okay, I kind
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On December 31st, China alerts WHO, which is a World Health Organization, of a flu-like
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We don't really know much about it right now, but at least they alerted them.
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On January 1st, Wuhan market identified as the outbreak hub.
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On January 5th, WHO, World Health Organization, advises against travel restrictions.
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The same ones that said this is a pandemic advised against travel restrictions because
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January 6th, SARS, MERS, and bird flu ruled out.
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On the 27th of December, he thought he had flu.
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January 13th, first confirmed case outside of China in Thailand.
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January 17th, second death, 69-year-old man from Wuhan.
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January 21st, U.S.'s first coronavirus case on Washington, 30-year-old man who traveled
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January 22nd, WHO declares international health emergency.
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Okay, now they're taking a little bit more seriously.
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January 23rd, China implements travel ban to and from Wuhan.
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The whole Hubei community, around 50 million people.
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So, that's a pretty big deal they announced right there.
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January 30th, Russia closes 2,700-mile border to China.
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January 30th, Russia already said no one can come here from China.
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February 2nd, Trump announces travel ban to and from China.
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February 7th, Chinese whistleblower doctor who tried to issue early warning dies of coronavirus.
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This doctor, he's worried that this could be bigger than what they think it is, but Chinese
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He comes down and says, you guys got to be worried about this.
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February 27th, Iranian VP is officially testing positive for the coronavirus.
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February 29th, U.S. officially reports the first death, and Trump announces travel ban
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On March 3rd, Iran releases 54,000 prisoners to prevent spread of the virus.
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This is a way of us trying to prevent the virus because everybody's in prison together.
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March 9th, Italian prime minister imposes countrywide lockdown.
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WHO declares the outbreak of pandemic, and Trump extends the travel ban to and from Europe.
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March 12th, Italy's death toll hits 1,000 in Italy.
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And Trump, on March 13th, declares national emergency.
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By the time you watch this, this number's increasing.
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The date I'm shooting this is Monday, March 16th is the date today.
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So if you see it on another, it's a hire today for you to know how fast it's escalating.
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South by Southwest, Ultra Music Festival, Miami, Boston Marathon, NBA, NHL, MLB, Masters,
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MLS, Coachella, Adobe, TET 2020, F8, which is the biggest Facebook conference of the year,
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GDC, which is a game developers conference, Shopify, Quartz, Jury Duty.
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I can give you many Apple shut down all their stores.
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So many different things that are taking place.
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I'm surprised the Olympics, Japan hasn't yet made any announcement.
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Because what country in the next four or five months is going to feel comfortable sending
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You may watch this in May and say they've already announced it.
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What is some of the biggest concern that people are having?
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Because when you look at the cases of the 173,000, China's number one at 80,000, say 81,000.
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By the way, it's been slowing down a little bit.
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Italy's number two at 24,747 because they didn't get ahead of it.
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They kind of, they didn't take it that seriously.
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Then it's South Korea, Germany, France, US, Switzerland, then UK.
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That's why a lot of people are going to Mexico because it's one of the safest places to be
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today because coronavirus can't do anything to Mexicans as of today.
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By the way, the most interesting number everybody's looking at is the following.
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US has 3,802, half, more than half the cases, but only shy from South Korea by six.
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You'll see a data that we'll get through here for you to take a look at.
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But for those of you guys that are from US, this next data is for you to see where America's
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Then it's New York, then it's California, then Massachusetts, Florida, Colorado, Louisiana,
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And death toll as far as state number one is Washington with 40.
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Five of it's from a cruise line that came in, which would make it 27, but it's 22.
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Virginia, South Dakota, Jersey, Louisiana, Kansas, Georgia, Colorado, all at once.
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I gave you an example of South Korea and where am I going with this.
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Here's one of the biggest concerns that people are having in America today.
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Because in America, hospital beds, we have a total of 924,100 hospital beds.
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Of which around 600 to 650 is being used, which means we have around 300,000 available beds.
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And that's concerning because what if this outbreak taking place and it goes so fast?
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They don't have enough beds and enough respiratory machines to give to people.
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That's what they're deciding between in Italy on what to do.
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And America doesn't want to get to that point because of hospital beds.
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The way we measure hospital beds is how many hospital beds a country has per thousand people.
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Number one is Japan at 13.05 bets per thousand.
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And all the way somewhere in the bottom, US is at 2.8.
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Just to kind of give you some perspective because if this thing spreads in Mexico, they're also
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not a good situation, but US is at 2.8 bets per thousand.
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But first of all, I used to have a neighbor of mine that in my office in Northridge, his
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And he says, you have no idea how great business is.
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Anybody in the hospital bed business, American hospitals are giving them calls because they
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I mean, really, when I'm looking at this, should I really be worried?
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The concern with this and why a lot of people, friends of mine on the inside, today's March
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16, I got information from the inside that there may be a shutting down of any kind of
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Trump may be coming out and making that announcement or they may even have a full-on lockdown for
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a week or two just to have this virus die out and not create any momentum.
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But I presume that a lot of travel coming in from Europe and Iran and any other country
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is probably going to be on lockdown for a long time until they slow down their cases.
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Even if U.S. slows down and takes control of the cases and other countries or not, don't
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expect travel to be open to a lot of other countries for quite some time unless if they
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But having said that, let's look at compound interest.
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Because if cases double at this pace, how bad could it be?
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Remember, just in January 29th, it was only 5,974 cases.
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I took it if the number of cases doubled every four days, six days, 10 days, how bad could
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February 25th is only three weeks prior to today.
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From March 3rd to March 10th, it goes to 1,004, which is eight times.
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So I said, let's double these cases every four days, every six days, every 10 days.
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If you double the 4,000 cases every four days, March 20th, we're at 8,000.
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By May 22nd, everyone in America has coronavirus.
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Right now, here's just something to be thinking about.
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If this grows this way, if it's every six days, it's by June 30th, everyone in America
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And if it's every 10 days, it's 9, 14, everyone in America is going to have coronavirus.
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That is the big concern that they have on how quickly it can spread.
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That's why they're making some of the big decisions that they're making today.
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So now, the biggest data when I saw this, my mind automatically went to is how infectious
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is this disease and how deadly is it compared to some other diseases out there.
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This is what it's looking like when it comes down to infectious.
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The number they look at is R0, which is a reproduction number, meaning per person that gets it,
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And where does COVID rank, coronavirus rank against others?
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If you get it, on average, 12 to 18 people will get it.
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It's different methods of getting the disease, but it's some data that I'm giving you here.
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Coronavirus is 1.4 to 3.9, which means when you get it, you can give it to 1.4 to 3.9.
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If you do get it, how many people you can give it to.
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It's still 10 times worse than seasonal flu, but it's still 1%.
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Now, obviously, they're talking about the data that if you're older, it's worse.
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But I'm giving you data that out of 100, 1% dies with this.
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I got 10 names I want you to follow of experts.
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This is Anthony Fauzi, who's the head of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease
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I'll put the link in the website that I want to send to you.
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Don't follow people that are journalists who need another story to sensationalize and put
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fear in you because they need you to go out there and watch them regularly so they're
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I did a webinar yesterday, and the way I started the webinar, everybody was wondering what's
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I said, there's three things you and I need to be thinking about right now.
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When it comes down to health, you have to be thinking about elderly parents, peers and
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siblings, spouse, then kids, then your friends where you're working at.
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Elderly parents, grandparents, peers, brothers, siblings, spouse, kids.
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So when it comes down to that, you need to be doing your own research on how to prepare
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How to get your immune system to be stronger because if your immune system is stronger,
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Like a state of the union type of a thing with your family.
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You know, the reality is there's a few things going on today.
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I've been in the financial industry since 2001 when 9-11 happened as a Series 7 broker,
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And there's a big difference between a market crash in 01 and 08 and today.
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01, no one could have predicted it because it was two planes that flew into World Trade
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You couldn't have said, on 9-11 at such and such time, 6.30 a.m. Pacific Standard Time.
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Then in 2008, greed got the best of everybody because it's kind of, oh, this is going to
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be like this forever and no income, no assets, and you can buy real estate.
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China's always going to buy the paper on the back and we're going to be okay.
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This is not something that you couldn't be prepared for.
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So the way you react to it protects your finances.
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So for instance, in 08, we had people that had their 401k, $700,000, it dropped to $350,000.
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And it was like, wow, I'm still going to stay one more day, one more day, one more day.
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Depending on the age you are, you have to look at the way you've allocated your funds.
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You have to look at the way your parents have allocated their funds.
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And you have to look at the way your grandparents have allocated their funds and how much equities
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Because maybe somebody above 60 shouldn't be in equities as much as they are today.
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Because this is not going away in the next week.
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This is probably going to be going on for the next four, eight, 16 weeks.
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But you have to be prepared for worst case scenario.
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And be nimble enough to make any kind of adjustments if numbers change.
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There are a lot of people that are getting fired today.
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There are many, many people that are going to get fired over the next two, four, eight weeks.
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Because companies are going to sit there and say, we simply don't need people like airlines.
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If airlines shut down for four weeks, what are they going to be doing?
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Apple's not going to just pay salary to everybody.
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You have to be thinking about what is going to be happening.
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You still have to figure out a way to make money on your own.
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You know, Kai was saying something earlier today.
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He says, do you think this is going to cause us to get back to the point where you can only really rely on your own income?
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But we've conditioned people to think they can rely on somebody else to support them as a government.
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People are going to be forced to learn how to make money today.
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Cash, the next four, eight, 16 weeks, baseball cards, real estate, you know, collectible cards, paintings, artifacts, you know, stocks in different industries.
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Whether it's airlines, hotel management, so many different places today.
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To have, if you've been disciplined enough to have cash.
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Let me give you the final thoughts here on how I'm processing it.
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And I'm in L.A. last week because I have a board meeting.
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And I go in with my wife and I take my kids because it's spring break for the kids.
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One of my main board members says, I can't fly out.
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Then another board member coming in from Connecticut.
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If I come to L.A., my mom and dad are going to get ticked if I don't go visit them.
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And if I visit them, I don't want to give them something I got.
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And I'm sitting there saying, okay, what are we going to be doing?
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I said, babe, we were planning on going to Universal Studios and visiting friends and family
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I said, Tico Dillon said, I got to talk to you guys.
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They're like all seriously lined up like this, you know.
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And I said, look, we're not going to Universal Studios today.
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I said, there's a virus going around called coronavirus.
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You know how sometimes you have a headache or you have a pain or an itch and we put some
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Yeah, they don't yet have the solution for this.
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And once they figure it out, things are going to go back to normal.
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So my oldest son is like, you know, dad, do you think we can come up with a solution
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Because what if we mix these two different medicines?
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And then after some conversation, they accepted the fact.
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I said, if coronavirus, we find a vaccine, can we come back to Universal Studios?
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I gave everybody the information on how to be prepared because that's what you're supposed
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I said, babe, what is the only way this is going to slow down?
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What is the only way this is going to slow down?
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The first thing I did Saturday, I got in, I came to the office.
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I'm kind of looking at how it's going to be if it doubles and how we need to be prepared for it.
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But I told my wife, I said, babe, here's probably the best thing we need to
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We have to accept the fact that many people are going to get coronavirus.
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The odds are people are going to get it because if these cases go into millions,
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if it's at 173 and it was at 5,600 just a couple months ago, just a few weeks ago,
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this thing's going to go into millions in no time.
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It's kind of like, well, people have this and people have that.
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And then from there, you have to study people that are in quarantine,
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that are going through a recovery mode, and we have to see what they're doing.
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And when we get that data and intel, because they're saying right now it's going to take 18 months
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Some are saying, Faust, you already found something, but nobody knows because every day
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I said, but I'm relying on innovators and problem solvers and entrepreneurs to fix this.
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When Trump got up and he announced and he says, Google's here, CVS is here, Walmart's here,
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that's all the entrepreneurs that are coming together figuring out a way to solve this problem.
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Because I've told you for many, many years, entrepreneurs are going to solve world's problems.
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And I've told you, cash is king and today's times validates both.
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Even the administration is leaning on innovators to find a solution for this.
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And they're getting the scientists and the brilliant minds to see what can we do about this kind of stuff.
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But in every single bad time you and I have been a part of.
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It was just like, it seems like 15 of them hit in a span of five minutes.
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Every time the buildings would come down, you would look.
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The place that would always stay is under the stairs all the way at the bottom.
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Man, if the man of the household is not worried, huh, maybe I shouldn't be.
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So it's not like, it's a surprise attack, right?
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As a 41-year-old with three kids and a wife and a family and two companies I'm running,
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Crisis tends to give birth to new heroes and families.
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Whether they're the naive, the irresponsible, the ignorant, they're panicking today.
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But also, every family, every community, every country, every city, every company has somebody
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that comes in with data, and they bring strength and confidence with execution there.
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Those end up coming out of this, and everyone leans on them as these are the leaders.
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So this is a chance for you to be in your family a leader, in your company a leader,
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A leader doesn't mean they don't do due diligence.
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A leader doesn't mean they're not looking at how serious it is.
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A part of a leader's responsibility is to go get the data for them, so they can send
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So if you do that, and things eventually end up getting better, we can look back and say,
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We can definitely no longer have 2.8 bets per thousand.
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We have to be prepared for these times, and we're going to get smarter.
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And by the way, if you haven't already subscribed to Valuetainment on iTunes, please do so.
00:24:31.100
And if you have any questions for me that you may have, you can always find me on Snapchat,
00:24:36.920
Just search my name, PatrickBitDavid, and I actually do respond back when you snap me