Valuetainment - ＂Expect A Recession＂ – Jamie Dimon SHOCKS Wall Street With DARK Economic Prediction

00:00:00.000 Jamie Dimon says recession is likely outcome with Trump's tariff turmoil.

00:00:04.200 Rob, if you have that clip, Jamie Dimon comes out and is officially using the R word,

00:00:09.640 recession, being there.

00:00:11.840 Do you have it, Rob?

00:00:12.740 I do.

00:00:13.080 Let me read this to you if you don't.

00:00:14.260 Okay, there you go.

00:00:14.860 Go for it.

00:00:16.240 And then how it affects consumer sentiment.

00:00:18.520 Sorry.

00:00:19.140 Personally expect a recession.

00:00:21.040 I am going to defer to my economy at this point, but I think probably that's a likely outcome.

00:00:25.960 Because markets, I mean, when you see a 2,000 point decline, it sort of feeds on itself, doesn't it?

00:00:33.980 Because it makes you feel like you're losing money in your 401k, you're losing money in your pension.

00:00:38.820 You've got to cut back.

00:00:39.840 Yeah.

00:00:40.240 I always remind people markets aren't always right, but sometimes they are right.

00:00:43.780 And I think this time they are right because they're just pricing uncertainty at the macro level

00:00:47.860 and uncertainty at the micro level at the actual company level.

00:00:51.140 And then how it affects consumer sentiment, it's hard to tell.

00:00:54.700 You know, consumers still have jobs.

00:00:56.840 Wages are going up at the low end, which I think is a good thing.

00:00:59.460 But if companies start cutting back, yeah, the consumer sentiment changes and business sentiment changes.

00:01:03.920 I think you've already seen business sentiment change a little bit.

00:01:06.640 Hopefully, you know, no one's wishing for that, but hopefully if there is one, it'll be short.

00:01:11.280 But I do think fixing these tariff issues and traders should be a good thing to do.

00:01:17.240 Benny.

00:01:18.920 Recession.

00:01:19.320 So two – let's get the terms right.

00:01:25.500 So two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

00:01:28.660 Yeah.

00:01:29.000 Recession.

00:01:29.640 All right.

00:01:30.100 Under Trump, that's the definition.

00:01:31.640 Under Biden, it's not the same.

00:01:32.480 Yeah, that's because that happened.

00:01:33.960 That happened under Biden.

00:01:35.420 Yeah, that happened.

00:01:36.080 There's a lot of this stuff that happened under Biden.

00:01:37.560 Obviously, you have these self-made billionaires that are in charge of the country.

00:01:44.780 And I would say – and I just want to give a shout out.

00:01:46.360 I don't know him.

00:01:47.020 I've never met him.

00:01:48.080 But the person who has become a rock star in all of this is Scott Bessett.

00:01:52.300 Man, that guy is impressive.

00:01:54.620 And everybody is now hanging on his every word.

00:01:57.300 I've never seen a treasury secretary command so much power and also have such clarity.

00:02:02.120 He spoke to the banks.

00:02:03.060 And we talked about banks.

00:02:03.820 And then I want to get back to the recession point.

00:02:05.060 And he spoke to the banks just yesterday, and Scott Bessett is sitting there giving a talk to all of the large American banks.

00:02:11.760 And it was just a point that you made about large banks and conglomeration with financial services.

00:02:17.480 And he said, your days are over.

00:02:19.940 You had a great run.

00:02:21.260 Now it's time for Main Street.

00:02:22.560 Like, we're done with Wall Street.

00:02:23.840 Now it's time for Main Street.

00:02:25.020 The balls on this guy to stare down the banks right here, this clip, to stare down the banks and say, this administration is not about you.

00:02:33.340 We ran for the working man. 0.91

00:02:35.720 And now it's time to serve them.

00:02:38.140 I don't know how long this clip is.

00:02:39.860 27 seconds.

00:02:40.760 Let's have a listen.

00:02:41.920 For too long, financial policy has served large financial institutions at the expense of smaller ones.

00:02:48.740 No more.

00:02:49.860 No more.

00:02:52.120 That takes a lot of guts to see.

00:02:53.860 This administration aims to give all banks the chance to succeed, whether it's J.P. Morgan or your local mortgage and loan.

00:03:03.040 It aims to get capital to Americans who need it by getting bureaucracy out of the way.

00:03:09.180 For too long.

00:03:09.760 PBD is exactly what you just talked about.

00:03:11.800 And, you know, people are.

00:03:13.460 This was yesterday?

00:03:14.080 When was that, Rob?

00:03:15.040 This was yesterday.

00:03:15.600 Yep.

00:03:15.740 Yesterday.

00:03:16.280 Great.

00:03:16.540 National Bankers Association, funded by the big banks, created wholesale by corporate banks.

00:03:21.900 And so to be able to have the temerity to go in and say that and then also his background is so impressive.

00:03:27.580 And I cannot believe I'm doing this.

00:03:28.880 Please don't come for me in the comment in the chat.

00:03:31.360 Please, chat, don't come for me over this.

00:03:32.660 But I'm telling you, when you go into his background and see that he worked with George Soros, Scott Bessett worked with George Soros as his chief risk manager when he collapsed the British pound.

00:03:44.720 When George Soros did a strategic collapse of the British government doing it through, hear me out on this, an overinflated stock market in the U.K., an overvalued currency in the U.K.,

00:03:59.660 mass immigration that was disproportionate and making the culture wobbly, and an elite class that had sold out to the working class of their country. 0.95

00:04:08.260 That's what the U.K. was in the 90s.

00:04:10.540 And he and Scott Bessett, our current treasury secretary with George Soros, swooped in and made a fortune that couldn't be spent in 100,000 lifetimes by betting against, by shorting the U.K. government in the pound.

00:04:22.980 And this man saw the structural inefficiencies and the risks associated with this single greatest financial coup in world history, arguably, what made George Soros famous.

00:04:35.220 I'm only saying that to say this.

00:04:37.820 Trump is a genius, man, for bringing this guy on, for ignoring the fact that he's friends with Soros, bringing this guy on to work out these structural inefficiencies in our country so that this can't happen to us.

00:04:49.980 And that's what I believe is actually happening here. Will it lead to a recession?

00:04:53.100 I don't know. I'll leave that for people with much higher IQs. I went to community college.

00:04:57.100 But is Scott Bessett on a warpath to create a wall around our home?

00:05:04.320 And I like using the home analogy, the metaphor. I'm sorry. It's going to get old.

00:05:08.400 But Scott Bessett is out there to reinforce against someone like Soros doing that to the American dollar and the American economy.

00:05:14.860 I am 100 percent in favor of that. Yes, there will be pain. Yes, you'll have to exercise some demons.

00:05:20.740 These are the kind of things that happen when you have a when you have demonic possession, which is what the country has right now.

00:05:27.500 When you have things that are really bad and wrong with the country, you're going to have to exercise them out.

00:05:31.820 But that's what Scott Bessett is doing.

00:05:33.460 And if you understand the full picture of what's happening there as he's trying to reinforce to protect against what he did to the UK, he's doing that for us.

00:05:42.220 That's amazing. Very interesting. I didn't know that, by the way.

00:05:45.860 Tom, your thoughts. Recession.

00:05:47.940 So recession. You heard what he was talking about.

00:05:51.200 Jimmy was talking about sentiment. So he says the sentiment of the consumer sentiment.

00:05:56.100 He said it three times. Why?

00:05:58.020 Why? Because if the consumer gets worried and you're worried about tomorrow, then you don't buy incremental things that you might think are luxuries.

00:06:07.420 You save. If you're worried about what's going to happen tomorrow, maybe you, you know, honey, we were going to take a trip and we were going to go to Orlando and we were going to go to all the theme parks and everything.

00:06:18.700 What if we go to the Grand Canyon and go to the national parks and do some things like that the summer with the kids, do something fun, but let's not spend three grand.

00:06:28.100 Let's spend twelve hundred bucks and let's save the rest of it. 0.98

00:06:31.180 These this is not fiction. These are the decisions that a populace that looks at all this, because most Americans are not in the stock market and they think the stock market's the economy,

00:06:41.820 because that's what comes screaming out of the news at them. The stock market is not the economy.

00:06:47.300 The economy is Costco yesterday said I had a really good first quarter. That's the economy.

00:06:52.460 The American consumer shopping at Costco. And so, and by the way, the market for, you know, an hour and a half is going to love the Costco earnings report.

00:06:59.800 It's going to go up. And so, you know, that's that's what it is.

00:07:04.240 So what is a recession? Two quarters of negative GDP growth.

00:07:07.940 That doesn't mean we're in the shitter. That means excuse me. That means that the growth stops.

00:07:14.820 Why does the growth stop? The sentiment stops.

00:07:18.080 And then if corporate sentiment, which was mentioned by Jamie Dimon and consumer sentiment or more conservative, hey, let's let all this tariff stuff sort out.

00:07:27.180 Then they buy less. That's what a recession is. It's not a depression and a collapse of all the mechanisms.

00:07:32.460 It's merely two quarters or six and a half quarters, if it's the Biden math of negative GDP growth.

00:07:40.300 And so I think Jamie Dimon could be correct. But I believe he's correct about one thing at the end.

00:07:47.280 If there is one, it will be brief because I think he's also looking and he said, I'm gonna leave it to my quants, 0.96

00:07:53.040 that the negotiation of all of these tariff things, Pat, where do you think it's going to be in four months, six months?

00:07:59.340 It's going to be the food poisoning. We're going to be out of the bathroom, over our food poisoning and back at work.

00:08:06.400 Yeah, I mean, out of the bathroom, Tom.

00:08:09.160 No, I'm saying it's a bad case of food poisoning. I don't know what you ate.

00:08:12.120 I'm saying it's a bad visual, but I'm saying it's restaurants.

00:08:14.540 The tariffs, think of it, think of the tariffs as having a really bad cold and you're off work for a couple of days because it's a bad cold.

00:08:22.320 And now guess what? And you're going to be back. That's what the tariffs are. It's a medicine we have to take.

00:08:26.120 Can somebody explain to me why Joe Biden wasn't hit with the R word?

00:08:30.560 Retard? 0.99

00:08:31.260 He was in this room, but that's the right question, Benny.

00:08:35.420 Which R word, Benny?

00:08:37.360 I just threw it out there.

00:08:39.260 You're talking recession?

00:08:40.360 So PBT just goes like the Biden recession, but that did not sink in.

00:08:45.620 They changed the definition of that.

00:08:47.140 Okay. So what happened there?

00:08:49.200 Yeah. They changed the definition while we were literally live on the air.

00:08:52.060 Well, I look at it a little bit different because this is kind of the conversation I was having with Brandon the other day where he's like,

00:08:58.920 you have to understand the macroeconomics and what happens with the quantitative easing.

00:09:02.560 And then what happens is, I was like, well, have you started investing yet?

00:09:06.200 He's like, no.

00:09:07.520 I'm like, why are you so worried about the world's economy?

00:09:10.920 You should be worried about your own economy.

00:09:13.740 And then he's like, well, you know, I'm just waiting on the time to buy the dip.

00:09:16.900 I go, you probably want to buy today.

00:09:18.760 And I go, because I've seen these markets go up and down all my life since I've been in this investing world.

00:09:23.840 The next day, all time biggest increase in the stock market we've ever seen in our lifetime.

00:09:29.480 It's like, did you buy it?

00:09:30.480 He goes, no, I was waiting.

00:09:31.340 I was like, you missed your chance.

00:09:33.260 What's my point?

00:09:33.960 I don't know if a recession is happening.

00:09:35.740 You're saying that it might be four months.

00:09:37.060 It might be six months, consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

00:09:40.420 We don't know.

00:09:41.320 What we do know is what you can, is control the controllable.

00:09:45.240 So is Jamie Dimon right?

00:09:46.520 Hold on, Vinny.

00:09:47.140 I know you're a financial advisor.

00:09:48.220 Let me just want to say it.

00:09:48.620 I know, I'm ready to drop the ball.

00:09:49.600 But the only economy that you should be focusing on is your economy right now.

00:09:54.060 Make sure that you're doing what you need to do to keep your job.

00:09:57.020 You know, be inflation proof.

00:09:58.340 Be recession proof.

00:09:59.240 Be good at what you do.

00:10:01.060 You know, we talk about the fear and greed index.

00:10:04.000 Rob, I sent you that, by the way.

00:10:06.100 Do you know the fear and greed index that we've mentioned?

00:10:07.960 Do you know where it's at right now?

00:10:09.200 Take a guess before you put it out there.

00:10:10.380 Happy.

00:10:11.100 You think people are happy?

00:10:12.580 I'm greedy.

00:10:13.860 Okay, people are greedy?

00:10:14.920 Well, they should be.

00:10:15.560 Go ahead.

00:10:15.980 Show it right now.

00:10:17.180 People are in extreme fear.

00:10:19.260 And whose fault is that?

00:10:20.180 And by the way, that's at an eight right now.

00:10:24.460 Do you know the all-time low it's ever been?

00:10:26.840 Two.

00:10:27.740 That was during COVID on March 12, 2020.

00:10:31.180 Do you know that two days ago, what the number was?

00:10:33.480 It was at a three.

00:10:34.760 So people in America, very, very fearful right now.

00:10:39.860 So what happens if you're fearful?

00:10:40.980 By the way, if you want to know what the highest greed ever was,

00:10:44.820 I think it was in 2012 when the fear and greed index hit about 90 is when it was.

00:10:51.680 So what can you do to prepare for a potential recession?

00:10:54.880 Get out of debt, save that money, and invest the right way.

00:10:59.300 So, Tom, you brought up a great point.

00:11:00.700 Instead of maybe going to Mykonos this summer, going to Ibiza,

00:11:03.800 maybe go to the Grand Canyon to go to Lake Michigan or something like that.

00:11:06.940 Instead of basically balling out.

00:11:08.260 Ibiza, just go to Key West.

00:11:09.040 There you go.

00:11:09.460 Instead of balling out when you get your tax refund, maybe you pump that into a Roth IRA.

00:11:14.340 I don't know.

00:11:14.760 Maybe you don't get a new car right now.

00:11:16.180 You just fix the old one.

00:11:17.980 Brace for impact, again, because we might have a recession.

00:11:21.420 But forget about what's going on in the macroeconomy.

00:11:23.860 What's going on in your economy?

00:11:25.340 And you saw the consumer price over month to month actually drop, Rob.

00:11:28.540 Can you put, Rob, there's a video, and Tom has a chart that inflation cools that actually went down 0.1%.

00:11:34.600 That's 9-11.

00:11:36.420 And Costco had a good quarter.

00:11:37.860 Isn't that interesting?

00:11:39.180 Some data and some facts.

00:11:41.040 No, Rob, I sent you a video on Slack.

00:11:42.720 What a metaphor.

00:11:43.140 The March consumer price index went to 0.2, 0.4.

00:11:49.860 I don't have that.

00:11:50.680 And while we're waiting for that to come up, the VIX today, the measure of volatility, did not jump back up as people thought.

00:11:58.700 It went up a little bit today, but it didn't jump back up.

00:12:00.860 It's staying at 37, which is, to Adam's point about the fear and greed index, that's a sentiment.

00:12:06.880 So the sentiment is actually calming on the market today.

00:12:10.020 And people say that what's going on today is some profit-taking because it's not America buying it.

00:12:15.700 It's 10% of people.

00:12:16.220 Have you looked at where the market is today?

00:12:17.380 I have not looked.

00:12:18.240 Take a guess.

00:12:19.100 Where do you think it is today?

00:12:20.880 We saw it.

00:12:21.900 Minus 800.

00:12:22.760 S&P 135 down.

00:12:24.480 So it's just, it's like a yo-yo.

00:12:26.780 It's like a.

00:12:27.220 Well, no, no.

00:12:27.660 But today it's, they say it's profit-taking pressure and the VIX only moved four points.

00:12:32.340 I concur with what Tom is saying.

00:12:34.680 Okay.

00:12:35.200 Let's go to the next story here.

00:12:36.620 Next, next story here.

00:12:37.900 One of the things I love about the team that we have here, our chief investment officer,

00:12:44.960 Vincent O'Shanna, crushes it.

00:12:46.840 Thank you.

00:12:46.980 Like the amount of research his team comes up with is like.

00:12:49.880 I appreciate that.

00:12:50.520 What happens is you do so much legwork on the back end that when the podcast starts, he's

00:12:54.760 just tired.

00:12:55.460 He doesn't want.

00:12:55.900 I'm exhausted.

00:12:56.300 I was up to 2 o'clock in the morning talking about the index.

00:12:58.780 Researching inflation.

00:12:59.860 There you go.

00:13:00.160 The reciprocal tariffs.

00:13:01.240 It's incredible.

00:13:01.700 We want to have a million people wearing the Future Looks Bright gear.

00:13:04.740 So this is some of you that buy Future Looks Bright gear and the numbered ones.

00:13:08.860 And some of you that go and put it on eBay.

00:13:10.380 Look at this.

00:13:10.780 400 bucks.

00:13:11.340 One out of 50.

00:13:11.920 $199.

00:13:12.620 That's me on the left, Matt.

00:13:14.020 Who's not sure?

00:13:14.900 Can you go to the user one?

00:13:16.420 Hat number one.

00:13:17.760 10 grand.

00:13:19.220 Is that one out of 250?

00:13:20.720 Yes.

00:13:21.120 But he got the one out of 250?

00:13:23.200 That's good for him.

00:13:24.020 What's the user's name?

00:13:25.000 Can we see?

00:13:26.000 What is the user's name?

00:13:27.260 Rob Gargiulo.

00:13:28.080 No, it's not me.

00:13:30.700 Okay, go back.

00:13:31.780 Zone service.

00:13:32.480 Interesting.

00:13:32.740 10 grand.

00:13:33.260 Go back one, Rob, to see what else is up there.

00:13:35.040 Rob, that would have been so funny.

00:13:36.160 Go back if you can, Rob.

00:13:37.480 Okay, they go lower.

00:13:38.620 So that's another one numbered.

00:13:40.080 Another one, the 45, 47 number.

00:13:41.820 Keep going lower.

00:13:43.140 More of them numbered that are selling.

00:13:44.520 $3,000.

00:13:44.940 Holy moly, that's a 43 out of 50.

00:13:47.240 Okay, so here's what we're doing today.

00:13:50.480 This one took us a while to get, and I'll explain to you why.

00:13:54.180 This is the box, Valuetainment, if you ordered this hat.

00:13:58.000 When you open it up, the box, right there, you see the future looks bright in gold, and

00:14:04.200 then there's a card in there, from me to you, and this hat took a while to make for one specific

00:14:11.440 reason.

00:14:13.300 So this is a numbered out of 250, okay, and this says future looks bright, and all of it

00:14:19.980 is embroidered.

00:14:20.760 This is not like a wing job.

00:14:22.200 All of it says future looks bright, all around the hat, black, sick hat that just got launched

00:14:29.040 this morning, numbered out of 250, at 99, first come, first serve, just so you know, you

00:14:35.420 know how this works.

00:14:37.000 These go like hotcakes.

00:14:39.600 In no time, this goes.

00:14:40.960 So within 30 minutes, this will be gone, but if you're one of the people that collects

00:14:44.180 these numbered hats, we will not be doing this one again, specifically with this color,

00:14:49.920 black and white future looks bright, numbered out of one out of 250, go to vtmerish.com,

00:14:54.120 place your order.

00:14:55.300 By the way, look at this, Vinny.

00:14:56.840 Even down here, like the way it is.

00:14:58.560 Like if I bought one right now, so somebody's going to get the number one right now.

00:15:01.480 Someone's going to get the number one.

00:15:03.760 But anyway, that'll be in the box, with the box the whole night.

00:15:06.800 Now when we get the shipments with future looks bright, you know what's coming in.

00:15:09.720 This to know that it's coming strictly from us.

00:15:12.580 Go to vtmerish.com, place your order.

00:15:15.460 If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this, click here.

00:15:18.160 And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.

Valuetainment - April 11, 2025

＂Expect A Recession＂ – Jamie Dimon SHOCKS Wall Street With DARK Economic Prediction

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript