Valuetainment - Future of Afghanistan Under Taliban Control - What’s Next？

00:00:00.000 My guest today is Aditya Rajkhol, who is a journalist specializing in conflicts having

00:00:06.260 to do with Kashmir, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. He's been reporting a lot on what's been going

00:00:11.480 on in Pakistan. So with that being said, Aditya, thank you so much for being a guest on Belletainment.

00:00:30.000 So I have a question for you to get more for your perspective is, I think almost everybody

00:00:45.300 in America agreed on the idea of eventually leaving Afghanistan, left, right, middle,

00:00:49.880 was a very small percentage of people in America that didn't want to leave Afghanistan and they

00:00:54.720 wanted to stay because they thought it would have taken a long time to shift the mindset

00:00:58.580 of folks in Afghanistan. Where did we go wrong with the way we left Afghanistan recently?

00:01:04.680 Well, the entire exit strategy of the United States has collapsed. And I would say, Patrick,

00:01:10.500 that they did not have any kind of an idea of how soon the Taliban is really going to take over.

00:01:16.780 And that's where we begin. Now, nobody is saying that the United States should not have gone out.

00:01:22.740 Yes. There's been a larger consensus that, yes, there needs to be an exit. Let's face it,

00:01:28.200 United States was not in Kabul or in Afghanistan for nation building. It was not there for governance.

00:01:34.840 It was not there to, in fact, have a democratically elected government or have a conducive atmosphere

00:01:40.840 for elections to take place. It was there to fight the Al-Qaeda and perhaps the larger nexus

00:01:46.040 of the terror groups that have their epicenter in Afghanistan's neighborhood in Pakistan. So that's

00:01:52.640 where the United States has collapsed. It has collapsed, not just in the understanding of the

00:01:58.220 Taliban, on its understanding of the Pakistan, of its understanding of the ethnic groups and their

00:02:03.740 divide within Afghanistan, but also how there is perhaps intra, you know, United States collapse

00:02:10.620 of policy on Afghanistan, on Pakistan and this entire region. I say this because military on one hand

00:02:18.060 is doing something else. The diplomats are doing entirely different. So they are trying to convince

00:02:23.860 the Afghan people that their every step is Afghan-led, is for the people of Afghanistan. But to the contrary,

00:02:31.060 what happens on ground is we see the same brutality. Taliban in power, you know, exactly what was happening

00:02:39.040 when the 9-11 attacks happened. What we see, Patrick, is again, those gory visuals, you remember, of that,

00:02:46.960 you know, aircraft of the Air Force at the Kabul airport, running away, almost fleeing, you know, the Kabul Hamid

00:02:55.880 Karza International Airport, and people trying to escape. Imagine what would be going through their minds that they are

00:03:02.740 declining the wings of that aircraft to just escape that land somehow. And that is where the U.S. has

00:03:10.060 completely collapsed or shattered. Over the last two years, Zalmay Khalilzah and, you know, U.S. diplomats

00:03:16.480 kept saying that we have a plan, we have a strategy, we know where we are going, we absolutely have an idea,

00:03:23.180 but the reality now is what the history will remember is the United States betrayed every Afghan

00:03:30.620 that stood for democracy, that stood for progress, that stood for better ties with the United States,

00:03:36.820 but they felt completely abandoned. You know, and by the way, were you there when that plane was taken

00:03:42.040 off? Were you in Afghanistan when all this was taking place? I wasn't there. I was tracking it from 0.92

00:03:47.180 New Delhi, but I've been in touch with the NDS, which is, of course, the secret service of the Afghan, 1.00

00:03:54.240 and I've been in touch with several ministers there, including senior diplomats. I, in fact, very recently,

00:04:00.620 was one of the very few journalists who interviewed Amrullah Saleh, the current acting president of

00:04:06.340 Afghanistan, who we actually do not know where he is right now, but he spoke to me at length for

00:04:11.600 almost half an hour and gave details of what his future strategy or what his thought process really

00:04:16.660 is. So, so let's go back. So I think the biggest thing that I believe, and I'm curious to know what

00:04:23.540 your thoughts are on this, is the challenge was sequencing. It wasn't leaving. It was in what sequence

00:04:28.820 do we leave? What goes first? What goes last? So do you mind sharing some light on what was the

00:04:36.360 sequence we took and what would have been a better strategy of sequencing and leaving Afghanistan?

00:04:41.740 You know, for the first time, you know, I would say that the entire trust factor in the Taliban in 0.95

00:04:48.760 Pakistan was the beginning of the betrayal. You know, United States somehow, the diplomats of 0.97

00:04:55.580 United States who were in the negotiating team, led by Zalmay Khalilzad himself, were almost convinced

00:05:03.880 by the Pakistan ISI, the Pakistani diplomats, and even the Taliban, that whatever commitments will

00:05:10.160 happen in Doha will be abided by. Whatever will be signed will be done in letter and spirit.

00:05:16.340 But let's face it, you know, we are talking about Taliban. I mean, people who have been radicalized

00:05:21.980 in different seminaries of both Pakistan as well as in Afghanistan. Those people who are completely 1.00

00:05:27.180 illiterate, who only believe in Sharia law, they do not believe in any kind of democracy. They do not

00:05:32.900 believe in any kind of education for the women or equal rights for women. So why did Zalmay Khalilzad and

00:05:41.160 the negotiating team have a blind faith over the last two years? And I'll tell you, in 2008, almost

00:05:47.040 this entire process began. I think it was in the middle of 2018, when, you know, Zalmay Khalilzad was

00:05:53.520 appointed formally, you know, as a special onward. And earlier, I think, I don't remember the exact

00:06:00.080 time, but earlier in 2018, I interviewed Zalmay Khalilzad when he was in New Delhi. And the entire

00:06:06.640 half in our interview, he was slamming Pakistan. He said, almost that Pakistan was the mothership

00:06:12.920 of terrorism, the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Lashkar-e-Jangvi, the Jayshar-e-Mohamad, the Haqqani network,

00:06:18.580 and all these terror groups were helped, aided, and supported by Pakistan. And the world, including

00:06:24.120 the United States, including India, and different other countries, need to speak up, need to have a

00:06:28.540 cohesive vision, and some kind of a cooperation against these Pakistan-sponsored terrorists.

00:06:33.380 And, to the contrary, within a few months, we see a different tune altogether, where Zalmay Khalilzad

00:06:40.640 is in bed with, you know, Pakistan, almost convinced at every step, and being almost an envoy of Pakistan 0.88

00:06:48.280 in the United States, telling them that we need to trust them. We need to be completely convinced

00:06:52.640 that they will abide by whatever happens. Now, what happened? Taliban said that they will not,

00:06:58.380 you know, kill innocents. They said the suicide bombings will stop. They said the Americans will

00:07:03.520 also not be targeted. But what happened in reality? We had targeted attacks and assassinations

00:07:09.460 taking place, not just in Kabul, but all across Afghanistan. We had not just the NDS and the

00:07:16.020 ANDSF of the Afghan army being attacked, but we also had targeted attacks at Afghan University,

00:07:22.780 American University in Kabul, at hospitals, emergency services, in government buildings,

00:07:29.120 Ministry of Interior, and several other, you know, important buildings in Kabul and elsewhere.

00:07:36.180 So, where did the Taliban cooperate with the United States? It did not. And still, the United States

00:07:42.740 had only one thing in mind, that we have to somehow leave and vacate. Because Joe Biden has been

00:07:48.460 always of the view that, you know, we should not have boots on ground. We are not there to,

00:07:54.460 you know, tackle the internal dynamics of Afghanistan. We are not there to have a democratic 0.64

00:07:59.400 government. But we are there to, in fact, you know, launch an attack on al-Qaeda. Perhaps it ended

00:08:05.100 when Osama bin Laden was killed. And in fact, he was found in Pakistan. So, the entire exit strategy 0.68

00:08:11.060 collapsed. You know, that is when, you know, when the trust factor was not there. When, of course,

00:08:18.260 any kind of a rapport that was built up, in reality, wasn't there. I mean, any of the demands of the

00:08:23.780 United States or the negotiated team were not being fulfilled. Then how did the US really trust Taliban?

00:08:31.460 On the other hand, the Afghan government, be it Ashraf Ghani, be it Amarullah Saleh,

00:08:37.780 be it any of their, you know, ambassadors to the UN or to the US or others, or even Hamid Karzai,

00:08:44.020 for that matter, and to an extent, even Abdullah Abdullah. If all of them were not in page,

00:08:49.300 on the same page, with the Doha agreement, then how did you dare to announce a timeline,

00:08:56.340 abide by the timeline, and actually fulfill that promise given to the Taliban? And it's not just

00:09:01.780 Biden. Trump did the same. You know, Trump and Biden equally shoulder the responsibility of

00:09:08.580 abandoning the innocent Afghans. And what we have seen over the last one month or a little more is 0.97

00:09:16.180 just a teaser of what the Taliban is really going to do over the many months now. And it's not just the

00:09:23.060 question, Patrick, of Afghanistan. It's the question of the entire regional security.

00:09:28.740 I mean, how much the other terror groups, the Islamist radical Sunni terrorist groups,

00:09:35.860 will get emboldened with the fact that here is a Sharia law that has been applied completely in

00:09:42.340 Afghanistan. We have a safe shelter. We can run terror camps. We can have a hiding space there.

00:09:48.500 And what kind of a defeat that United States has faced, because that is what is the chatter.

00:09:53.780 I've been monitoring the dark web, where not just the Al-Qaeda, the ISIS and other terror groups are

00:09:58.580 active. And they feel emboldened. They see this as a defeat of the United States in Afghanistan.

00:10:05.380 And the hell will break loose now. Because, you know, there are two countries that are completely 0.85

00:10:10.900 focused on diplomatically and otherwise supporting the Taliban. One is Pakistan, obviously. And second,

00:10:17.460 of course, is China. Now, China, I don't know how they will do this, how they will be the next, 0.99

00:10:23.700 you know, so-called superpower to actually enter Afghanistan, or whether they will,

00:10:28.580 because it is only going to be a one-way investment. It's going to be a very tricky

00:10:34.580 affair. It's going to be a very tricky affair. So when you say hell will break loose, I got two

00:10:39.060 questions for you. One is, are we at a point of no return? Meaning, is it too late? So if yes,

00:10:45.620 how do we salvage what we have right now? And number two, unpack to me what it means

00:10:49.780 when you say hell will break loose. Well, one, for starters, that all terror

00:10:55.860 groups in the region, be it in Pakistan, be it in Afghanistan or elsewhere, will get emboldened now.

00:11:01.380 They will, you know, you'll have to understand what happened in Pakistan. Over the last three years,

00:11:05.860 Pakistan-based terror groups are underground because of the fact that Financial Accident Task Force,

00:11:12.500 FATF, has put Pakistan on the grey list. And this means economic challenges for Pakistan. Now,

00:11:18.740 FATF is a global money laundering, you know, action place that actually monitors how money laundering

00:11:27.060 is used not just by the drug mafia, but also by terror groups. Now, in Pakistan, they felt that state 0.77

00:11:33.460 was in fact facilitating the finances for different terror groups. Now, FATF had put them on the grey list,

00:11:39.540 and if in the next six months or so, Pakistan does not comply with the guidelines, it will fall on the

00:11:45.380 black list category in which the global aid from the global bank, the ADB and others will not fall in.

00:11:51.540 Now, this is one. After Taliban takeover, where there is no United States President or NATO in Afghanistan,

00:11:59.540 these terror groups, who were somewhat in hiding due to FATF pressure, got emboldened. Now,

00:12:05.460 many of these prisoners, who were from the Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Lashkar-e-Jangui,

00:12:10.260 or even Haqqani Network, who were in Kabul prison, who were in different other prisons, are out now.

00:12:15.780 They have entered Pakistan. Many of them have also entered the Pakistani side of Kashmir, Pakistan-occupied

00:12:21.060 Kashmir, and are ready at launch pads to enter Kashmir also. And perhaps even the Pakistani Taliban,

00:12:27.540 who attacked Pakistani security forces and others. So, the hell will break loose in such a way that

00:12:33.060 Taliban will continue with its carnage and killings, etc., in Afghanistan. But the same will happen in 0.94

00:12:40.260 Pakistan. Now, many asked me, many journalists asked me, and many experts asked me that what will

00:12:45.380 happen in Kashmir, because Kashmir has been a potpoiler, you know, of radical terrorism as well.

00:12:52.180 What I say is that Kashmir is still a far-pest thought. What will happen to Pakistan? You know, 1.00

00:12:56.820 because Pakistan has been aiding, abiding, and completely supporting the Taliban. And in months

00:13:04.420 from now, I see massive radicalization happening across Pakistan, in the society, in the entire

00:13:11.540 atmosphere. It's already creeped in. But with the Taliban takeover, it will only grow aggressively.

00:13:16.820 And before you ask me your next question, we have to understand what the Taliban really is.

00:13:21.300 Talib means student. Taliban is its plural. There were, you have to understand, in the 90s,

00:13:29.780 students, Islamic students who were from Afghanistan in Pakistani seminaries, what we call Madarsas,

00:13:38.020 and they were being trained there. And when trucks used to go from Pakistan to Iran for trade,

00:13:44.260 many of these Afghan warlords used to capture these trucks. They were thieves, they were thugs, 0.97

00:13:49.060 they were warlords, others, who used to capture these trucks in Afghan territory, 0.99

00:13:53.140 and take over the goods. So Pakistan suffered a lot. So Pakistan ISI decided to arm these Afghan 0.99

00:13:58.980 students who were studying in seminaries and mosques in Pakistan, the biggest of which is in KPK,

00:14:04.660 Khyber Paktoon Walk. And it is actually called the University of Jihad, the Haqqania Mosque. 0.54

00:14:10.500 And Haqqania Mosque is where the Haqqani network gets its name. So they decided to arm these students. 0.84

00:14:18.820 And these students, Patrick, used to provide security to these trucks. Slowly, this grew into a Taliban 0.94

00:14:24.740 movement. They became active, not just providing security to these trucks in different villages of

00:14:30.180 Afghanistan, but they in itself became a militant terror movement supported by the Pakistan ISI.

00:14:37.540 So this has been a long-term strategy of the Pakistan ISI in Afghanistan, in Kashmir,

00:14:43.140 and in this entire region, which again, the United States did not realize and got confused in this

00:14:48.820 entire web of extremism, different groups, and Al-Qaeda, Taliban, and Pakistan chemistry,

00:14:55.780 well, the Biden administration, the Trump administration, and perhaps Bush in the past,

00:15:01.060 and Obama as well, thought that Pakistan was its closest ally in the region in fight against terror,

00:15:07.380 but they didn't realize that Pakistan was in fact breeding the same terror.

00:15:11.220 How did they not know that though? How do all these secret intelligence not know that?

00:15:16.260 Well, perhaps they did, but they thought it was important to keep Pakistan as an ally, 0.98

00:15:20.980 rather than actually nipping them in the butt. So let me ask you maybe a different kind of a 0.95

00:15:27.140 question. Who does Taliban fear the most today? Well, perhaps the United States itself,

00:15:32.820 because as of now, they see United States both as an ally, as an oppressor as well. Because,

00:15:40.660 you know, all the years, the chemistry has completely changed. We've seen

00:15:46.020 a time when, of course, Taliban attacked not just the Afghan people, the Afghan government,

00:15:52.420 but also the United States as well. There were so many troops of the, you know, United States that

00:15:57.940 actually fell to the bullets of the Taliban in different attacks. We also saw situations where

00:16:04.420 the Taliban actually infiltrated into the Afghan army and attacked not just the Afghan army,

00:16:09.780 but the United States troops as well. Now, I see this argument time and again on, you know,

00:16:15.700 US television. And of course, the Biden administration has been backing this argument

00:16:19.540 that, you know, we trained three lakh, 300,000 of the Afghan soldiers, and we gave them ammunition,

00:16:26.900 we trained them, we did whatever we could, and that's all we could do. Now, do they tell you that 90% of

00:16:33.300 these Afghan troops are actually illiterate? Do they tell you that 90% of these Afghan troops

00:16:40.260 do not have basic education? They do not know how to read and write? Do they tell you that they are

00:16:46.340 only trained in, you know, firing and ammunition, etc. But they do not know, they cannot calibrate a

00:16:52.340 strategy. They cannot defend themselves properly in a proper strategic way. Then how do you say that we

00:16:59.780 have 300,000, you know, Afghan troops, we have given them Humvees and latest, you know, gun ships,

00:17:05.700 etc. It's not going to work. It's certainly not going to work. I completely understand your argument

00:17:12.020 when you say that you are not there for governance, you're not there for elections, you're not there

00:17:16.180 for nation building. But once you entered, once you have said that you're going to attack the Al-Qaeda,

00:17:23.300 this war is against terror, and there is this huge NATO resolute support, you know,

00:17:28.580 group that has come up. You need to have an exit strategy. You need to have support of the people

00:17:35.540 there or the local government while you leave. You cannot abandon them or make them sitting ducks.

00:17:42.340 You know what happened in Iraq, Patrick? United States had to return. They had to return to fight 0.86

00:17:47.460 the ISIS. Many experts now say that here also there is ISIS, but in a very different form. ISIS here is

00:17:54.340 called the ISIS Islamic State Khorasan province. But again, this ISIS, this ISKP is not the same as

00:18:01.860 the ISIS of Iraq or Syria. This is very different. The initial fighters of the ISIS or the ISKP in

00:18:09.540 Afghanistan in 2014, 15, 16 came from Pakistan. They were the disgruntled elements of the Haqqani

00:18:18.660 network and the Al-Qaeda and, you know, majority of the fighters were from Pakistan. So again and again,

00:18:26.020 there is one term that you may also see, you know, which is Pakistan. Now, many may say that I'm an Indian

00:18:32.260 and, you know, I may go on a rhetoric spree against Pakistan, but there are facts. There are books that

00:18:37.620 have been written. There's research that has happened. Not just that, the intelligence agencies and the cooperation

00:18:42.500 between CIA, Mossad, RNAW in India, even ISI for that matter, will reveal what the reality is.

00:18:50.420 What's been happening in seminaries or what we call Madarsas in the University of Jihad in KPK.

00:18:57.460 Samyul Haqq, who was a radical element there and majority of the government of Taliban Patrick,

00:19:03.860 which is in power right now, has come from the same seminary in Pakistan, in KPK. So this is the

00:19:10.260 reality of the day. You said, what does Taliban fear the most right now? I don't think they fear

00:19:15.380 anything. They've achieved their goal. And in the days ahead, in the months ahead, it's going to be

00:19:22.980 worse. It's going to be worse for the Afghan people. And that's why I see people from various 1.00

00:19:29.220 ideologies, you know, people from different ideologies in Afghanistan are running for shelter.

00:19:35.300 They do not want to only come to U.S. or India, but anywhere but Afghanistan. It's heartbreaking

00:19:40.340 seeing the stuff that you see out there. Now, this takes me to a couple of different places.

00:19:44.980 You said they fear U.S. Perhaps they fear U.S. And then at the end, you say they don't fear anybody.

00:19:51.140 OK, so let's set that aside. But also at the same time, who's come to their savior is China, right?

00:19:58.260 And you kind of brought up China yourself earlier. This morning, Secretary Anthony Blinken

00:20:04.340 sends a tweet out, right? I don't know if you heard this or not, or if you read this. I'm sure you have.

00:20:08.900 Beijing should let the voices of all Hong Kongers be heard. The PRC's disqualification of district

00:20:14.100 counselors only weakens Hong Kong's long-term political and social stability. We stand with

00:20:20.020 the people of Hong Kong and continue to support their human rights and fundamental freedoms.

00:20:25.380 This is Secretary Anthony Blinken sends this at five. This is a goes out.

00:20:33.860 I don't know what time the 526 PM. Apparently, this is yesterday when he sends his tweet.

00:20:38.020 What happens immediately? He takes it down. He deletes the tweet, right? And takes a tweet down.

00:20:43.220 This may have been a couple of days ago. And then that generated a couple of different theories.

00:20:48.580 Some would call it a conspiracy theory. Some call it a theory. Why is he taking it down?

00:20:52.660 Is he taking it down? Because who's the one country that hates that message? It's only one. And we know

00:20:58.820 who that is. It's China. If Jack Ma said one thing about Hong Kong, Jack Ma lost all his money. And if

00:21:04.820 anybody voices too much defending Hong Kong, it doesn't sit too well with them. What role is China

00:21:10.820 playing today that scares our Secretary Anthony Blinken from the most powerful country in the world to

00:21:18.660 delete a tweet just because China's upset? Where is the connection there with China, Taliban, and US?

00:21:25.300 Let me tell you one thing, Patrick. United States had massive leverage in this particular region.

00:21:31.220 But with their steps, their exit strategy, they have completely lost any kind of that leverage.

00:21:37.220 And China, on the other hand, has increased that leverage to a great extent.

00:21:43.060 And let's also remember, Patrick, that there are many American citizens who are still on Afghan soil.

00:21:50.020 Now, the priority of the Biden administration, as they say in their own words, is to actually

00:21:55.220 rescue those citizens. And we know how closely embedded China is right now, Pakistan is right now, 0.77

00:22:02.660 with, of course, you know, the Taliban. And perhaps Anthony Blinken. Now, this is, I'm just guessing it.

00:22:10.660 I do not know what the reality is. But perhaps he thought that China or got some kind of an intelligence,

00:22:18.500 that China will not like it. China may take some aggressive steps and reciprocate in some way,

00:22:25.620 not in China, not in US, but in Afghanistan. That's my fear right now, because I realize this,

00:22:32.180 because it's not just Americans. There are many other, you know, international citizens who are

00:22:37.140 there in Afghan soil. And many countries are facing a tough time with the Taliban. And Taliban, on the

00:22:42.660 other hand, is using these citizens who receive money, who receive humanitarian aid, who receive whatever is

00:22:50.420 possible at the stake. So, at one time, this is an embarrassing moment for the Biden administration

00:22:59.780 and Anthony Blinken after the kind of a rhetoric spree that Trump went into against China. Is the

00:23:07.380 Biden administration again going to have a hot and cold approach towards China ahead of, you know,

00:23:13.460 amidst the UNGA? You know what Biden said at UNGA? He said he does not want any kind of a Cold War

00:23:19.460 strategy. He does not want another renewed approach of a Cold War happening. He said,

00:23:25.140 we will go on a diplomatic streak all across the world. Now, perhaps he does believe that he does

00:23:33.620 not want another war. Perhaps he does realize that he doesn't want another kind of an Iraq or Afghanistan. 0.61

00:23:40.020 But is this how your approach is really going to be? By abandoning people completely? By actually

00:23:46.500 emboldening terror groups to attack your closest allies and to leave Afghan people high and dry

00:23:54.260 without any kind of a support. And now perhaps becoming an ally of the Taliban where you not

00:24:00.260 just send a humanitarian aid, but leave massive amounts of ammunition for them to use against you

00:24:08.020 and your allies. So I think China is going to increasingly play a very significant and important

00:24:13.940 role in Afghanistan. They're going to invest massively. They already have some projects underway

00:24:18.820 in Afghanistan, including railway projects, because there has been the road connectivity

00:24:25.060 project, which is very close and dear to Xi Jinping. And they want to connect not just

00:24:31.060 with Pakistan, with Afghanistan, but to entire Central Asia. Now, will that bring any kind of economic

00:24:36.580 dividends for Xi Jinping or China? That is up for debate right now. But certainly, strategically,

00:24:44.820 it is going to be a win-win situation for China, at least in the immediate future.

00:24:48.580 I mean, when you look at the statistics, the average age of a Pakistani median age is 24. The average age

00:24:55.140 in Iran is 30. But the average age of an Afghani is 19 years old, youngest in the world. So that's a great 1.00

00:25:01.540 resource right there for China to be able to leverage. Then you have Afghanistan that has 0.86

00:25:05.540 estimated over a trillion dollars of untapped mineral reserves. And that's not even talking

00:25:10.420 about lithium that you're talking about there. But let me set that part aside. So this leads me to

00:25:15.380 two areas. And I know you commented on this earlier. I want to see what you say

00:25:19.700 on this topic here. I was born and raised in Iran. And I remember when Carter's campaign

00:25:27.220 was human rights. That's what he campaigned around. Human rights, human rights, human rights,

00:25:32.420 human rights. And he went to Iran, and that's what he does with the Shah. And then he leaves

00:25:38.180 December 31, 1977. He does the toast. He leaves. Him and Kissinger promised, we're not going to let

00:25:43.860 the revolution happen to the Shah. They leave it alone. They don't help him. Shah leaves. Next thing

00:25:48.420 you know, Iran flips, and boom, 3,000 political prisoners come out. And 9-11, many people say it's linked

00:25:55.220 to that. I'm not going to speculate. I'm going to say a lot of people said that was linked to it.

00:25:59.460 I see Biden. I see Carter. I see them as brothers, meaning very similar ways of leading,

00:26:06.580 both nice, kind, peaceful, wanting things to be, hey, it's all going to work out. Let's not get

00:26:15.700 involved in the conflicts of Iran. Let's not get involved in the conflicts of Afghanistan.

00:26:19.780 Both of them made one of the biggest mistakes. Some say Biden's is bigger than Carter's,

00:26:25.620 because we still haven't seen the residual effects of what's going to happen with Biden's mistake.

00:26:28.820 And it's going to take 5, 10, 15, 20 years to see it. We actually know what happened with Carter

00:26:32.740 the next 10 years, half a million lives, et cetera, et cetera. I don't even need to get into that.

00:26:36.900 This is where it takes me to. And I think you're going to disagree, but I want to hear you on why you're

00:26:42.580 going to disagree with this. My opinion, when Reagan came overnight, Khomeini gave the prisoners

00:26:49.220 of war. You remember that. And Reagan gave the credit to Carter. When they said, hey, you know,

00:26:53.860 they're releasing the prisoner of war and Reagan could have taken the credit because Khomeini knew

00:26:58.020 Reagan's going to do something about it. He didn't feel like Carter was going to do anything about it.

00:27:01.300 He thought Carter was just a nice president. Nobody feared. And Reagan said it's because of Carter.

00:27:05.620 He gave the credit to him. As much as 80 million people voted against this guy named,

00:27:10.980 I don't know if you've heard of his name, Donald J. Trump, right? They voted against this guy.

00:27:14.740 And 76, whatever million people voted for him. While he was president, we may have had a lot of

00:27:22.740 riots. We may have had a lot of protests in the U.S. We may have had a lot of stuff that was going on

00:27:28.020 in the U.S. Nobody even talked about ISIS for four years. Nobody talked about anything. He put China, 0.76

00:27:35.460 held them accountable with all the issues that was going on with the sanctions and everybody else.

00:27:40.500 So there was a certain level of fear to know that no one was going to do anything under him.

00:27:46.100 Do you think a situation like this gives the opposing side an argument to say,

00:27:51.780 well, this is exactly why they didn't fear Trump? If Trump was in the House right now,

00:27:56.340 this would have never happened. That's what you hear millions of people talking about right now.

00:28:00.820 I'm curious to know what your thoughts are on this. Well, when we speak about Afghanistan,

00:28:05.780 I believe that the Biden and the Trump administration almost had the similar objectives.

00:28:11.380 And when I say similar objectives, both of them wanted no boots on ground. Both of them wanted

00:28:18.260 a similar exit strategy. And both of them did not want any kind of an interference from the United

00:28:23.380 States anymore in the internal situation in Afghanistan. Now, many believe I've seen those

00:28:28.420 tweets. I've seen articles being written, columns being written, and many experts arguing that if

00:28:34.500 Trump was here, perhaps this was not going to be an exit strategy. I personally do not believe that.

00:28:40.580 I think that the exit strategy would have been would have been similar. You know, there was no detailed

00:28:49.300 planning of even how the Bagram air base should have been kept in the last moment. And I think

00:28:56.660 whatever the military commanders down on ground advised the Biden administration, the same advice

00:29:02.580 would have been gone to the Trump administration, and similar action would have been taken. Secondly,

00:29:08.340 you know, when it comes to China, one has to realize and study the pattern that China has really caught 0.72

00:29:15.620 into in the region, their dynamics to become a superpower. And when in 2012-2013, Xi Jinping came to power,

00:29:24.020 his entire project, his speeches about China dream, his vision of China dream, and his tendency

00:29:30.740 of expansionist tendency, his vision of China's expansion across the region and the globe. You know,

00:29:39.220 we have faced this here in India, where just last year, after 40 long years, we had a situation in Ladakh,

00:29:47.300 the northernmost part of India, where the Chinese came in, and there was a confrontation, and 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives.

00:29:56.500 We also had a situation in the same confrontation. Many of the Chinese soldiers were killed. Some figures say

00:30:02.660 that there were 30 to 40 Chinese soldiers, but China never, as it always happens, they've never came up

00:30:08.660 with a figure. Later, a year later, they came out that six or seven of their senior soldiers were killed

00:30:15.460 in that confrontation. So, the expansionist tendency has been there, time and again. Another important

00:30:22.180 factor of economic upheaval that China engages in is the debt trap. It has done that in Sri Lanka, in Maldives,

00:30:31.140 in many places in African region, in somewhat places in the Middle East also, Djibouti and others.

00:30:41.620 So, this debt trap is something that China is going to exploit in Afghanistan as well. Now, 0.85

00:30:49.940 how it does that with the Taliban is something that one needs to see because Taliban does not have any

00:30:55.540 kind of a recognition or diplomatic recognition right now from any of the global countries. There

00:31:00.580 are only a handful that are willing to cooperate and go along with them, apart from, of course,

00:31:06.020 the United Nations humanitarian aid that will come in. But how will the debt trap strategy really work

00:31:12.020 in Afghanistan? I'm curious about that. I'm really curious about how China takes about the important

00:31:19.140 infrastructure projects in Afghanistan because, you know, the Soviet Union has been there, has done that.

00:31:26.100 The United States has been there, done that. And they have seen the failure of any kind of a situation of

00:31:35.380 nation building or any kind of a governance with such ethnic stride, with such kind of a, you know,

00:31:42.100 even illiteracy out there. So, how will China manage is something that one needs to witness because it 0.98

00:31:49.940 could be again, Patrick, that a decade from now, you would be interviewing me or I would be interviewing

00:31:56.420 you and we will be discussing how China is now exiting Afghanistan. So, it would be a similar situation, but

00:32:02.260 you started your question comparing the Biden administration's policies with the Trump

00:32:07.940 administration. Or Carter. Or Carter. Trump or Carter. Like, the similarities between Carter and

00:32:13.220 Biden and then how Trump would have had military go last rather than military go first. Because

00:32:20.260 my challenge is purely a sequencing challenge. Why did military leave first? You leave military last

00:32:26.500 before you get everybody out there. So, that's the biggest difference between Trump's

00:32:31.060 existence. The objective is the same. No one's saying, first of all, Trump never wanted to go

00:32:34.820 in there anyways in the first place. 20 years ago, he did a whole article about the fact that,

00:32:38.900 you know, going against Bush. You know, I don't oppose New York Times or USA Today. So,

00:32:42.820 he's never wanted to be there. But to leave, leaving with soldiers last rather than leaving with,

00:32:48.180 that's why I'm asking about the sequencing side. And then comparing Biden and Carter as being nice

00:32:53.620 people. But does the world fear those two? I think history says no.

00:32:58.580 Well, I agree with you. But, you know, I'll give you one example. And this is where I will end this

00:33:06.900 particular argument. You know, what the United States did in Afghanistan over the last 20 years,

00:33:12.260 apart from the military occupation that happened, they let a corrupt regime prosper. They let drug 0.89

00:33:20.020 mafia and drug growth, heroin, hashish, ganja, and opium grow massively. This is what they did.

00:33:30.260 There was a point, and perhaps I don't have the latest figures right now with me, but 93 to 95 percent

00:33:35.860 of the global heroin and opium came from Afghanistan. I mean, the kind of killings that are happening all

00:33:42.900 across the globe, the drug mafia killing, the drug laws, etc. Their production, their entire epicenter

00:33:48.980 was in Afghanistan. And secondly, be it Hamid Karzai or be it Ashraf Ghani. Ashraf Ghani, of course,

00:33:55.620 has become the latest villain and a punching bag, perhaps, for the United States. They were corrupt. 0.97

00:34:03.220 I mean, everybody knew this. The US knew this. The NDS knew it. The regional governments here in 0.98

00:34:09.380 South Asia knew it. And still, they let them prosper. I mean, there was no mechanism of transparency

00:34:15.540 or some kind of, you know, questions being asked anywhere. So this led to a complete collapse as well,

00:34:24.820 where, you know, you have a government which only works for money, which knows that the US is going to

00:34:30.500 arm you and give you a lot of protection and give you money. And that's your end goal. Your end goal

00:34:37.220 is not peace. Your end goal is not transparency. Your end goal is not to keep your flock together

00:34:42.180 and keep all tribes and ethnic people together. So I think the United States failed in that miserably

00:34:48.340 as well, where they could not check one, the menace of drugs. Second, the menace of a corrupt government

00:34:55.620 that only grew further. And third, and the most important, which I emphasize, the menace of a nexus

00:35:02.740 between the Pakistan ISI, the Taliban and mushrooming the terror groups, Sunni Islamist terror groups,

00:35:10.260 which are anyway now even going to grow further. So these are the terrible mistakes that have happened.

00:35:16.740 Of course, I completely agree with you that the least and the basic thing that perhaps even any

00:35:23.300 strategist from any of the top universities in the US would have told them is that the military needs

00:35:28.740 to stay till the very end. You need to evacuate each and every citizen first. Yeah. And by the way,

00:35:34.180 that's not even Democratic or Republican. That's not politics. That's just basic military strategy.

00:35:40.820 So who do you think ought to be, and you may or may not have an opinion on this, who ought to be held

00:35:46.420 accountable in the sequence of how we left? Who is supposed to be held accountable for the way we left

00:35:52.420 Afghanistan? I think it is Biden. I mean, Biden and nobody else. I mean, Trump, of course,

00:36:01.140 because the kind of timelines that he set up were unrealistic. I mean, May 1st, it was impossible

00:36:08.820 to, in fact, evacuate not just American citizens, other citizens from other countries or Afghan SIV

00:36:16.660 applicants and others who, anyway, many of them are still stranded there. And the timelines were

00:36:21.940 unrealistic completely, could not have been fulfilled. Now, Biden says that there were timelines set and

00:36:26.900 he had to abide by it is something that I do not agree with. What are negotiations for? What is

00:36:33.780 your leverage for? Why are you called a superpower over the last many decades? So I think they had a

00:36:41.380 certain amount of leverage. They had a huge amount of leverage in the negotiations and they could have

00:36:46.420 pushed this further. I agree. And a strategy of collapse that completely happened where the military

00:36:52.740 would have advised them because their focus was not, mind you, Patrick, to evacuate people. Their

00:36:59.620 focus was to evacuate their military. So their strategy, if you go to Biden's statements in the

00:37:05.460 past, if you go to statements of Lincoln or even other diplomats, they say repeatedly that these are the

00:37:12.900 many troops that will remain. These are the many troops that will remain and will exit finally. So their

00:37:18.660 focus was not on these many thousand innocents that will be evacuated. So let's face it that now

00:37:25.860 Blinken might create a show all across the globe that we rescued more than 100,000 people. And that was a

00:37:33.540 major task in the process. 13 US soldiers also lost their life. But the reality of the matter is that they

00:37:41.060 never wanted to rescue citizens. That was not their priority. Their priority was to exit this conflict that

00:37:47.780 was created by the United States, a monster that was created and perhaps a monster that will remain 0.89

00:37:53.620 for the Afghan people and perhaps the remaining few Afghan citizens.

00:37:57.540 In situations like this, to regain leverage like this may take a decade or two. When you have

00:38:02.580 opportunities like this, you don't let it go. The moment you lose leverage, it's over with. You don't

00:38:06.500 get a second chance for leverage. And now you're sending troops back. Why are you sending troops back if

00:38:12.020 the goal was to get them to go out? So your sequencing was all out of whack. The story you're reading

00:38:16.740 about with child wives where families are exchanging their daughters to Taliban for safety and freedom.

00:38:23.620 Is that just conspiracy or is that really happening right now?

00:38:26.900 It's really happening. It's not after US exited. I mean, when US exited, it aggravated the situation

00:38:34.260 and it's happening. I mean, there are stories of Afghan women who do not have money, families who do not

00:38:42.500 have money, and they are selling them to warlords who do not have children, and they are negotiating the price of their kids.

00:38:49.380 Imagine what's happening. And this will only grow further. I mean, the kind of human tragedy that we are witnessing here is massive.

00:39:01.380 And mind you, the international media's attention, Patrick, has been on Kabul. It has not been on the other

00:39:10.260 provinces all across Afghanistan. Their situation is worse. What's happening in Kandahar, which is the so-called

00:39:16.900 cultural or the, you know, religious epicenter of the Taliban. They're killing in a sense. They're killing

00:39:23.780 at point-blank range. Summary executions that are happening where not just the erstwhile Afghan army

00:39:31.620 people or the NDS secret service people, but innocent government employees. Somebody might have had an ego

00:39:38.660 hassle or some argument in the past with the Taliban. Those people, innocents, are being butchered

00:39:44.980 completely. So this is the reality of Afghanistan right now. And on your show today, Patrick, I'll tell you,

00:39:52.180 and I predict this, that years from now, the United States will be forced to enter Afghanistan again.

00:40:00.100 And it will not be to fight the ISIS. It will not be to fight the Taliban. It will be to fight the

00:40:06.260 monsters that they created and they did not care about. The mushrooming Islamist terror organizations 0.98

00:40:13.380 that will have their base camps in Afghanistan. Now, imagine globally the kind of Islamic terror 1.00

00:40:19.780 groups that were shadowing or perhaps underground did not have as much mechanism because of the

00:40:26.340 changing dynamics that happened after 9-11, the raised alarm bells, the security corporation,

00:40:32.180 the anti-terrorism corporation that happened will completely now die down because the kind of

00:40:38.980 emboldening that will happen. And perhaps, who knows, the Taliban and the Pakistan will use Afghanistan soil 0.96

00:40:45.140 to actually, you know, mushroom these militias, these terror groups on Afghanistan soil. It's been

00:40:52.180 already happening. It's not that something new will happen. In Helmand, there have been terror

00:40:57.380 camps of Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Jangui and others that have been running for years together. Now,

00:41:02.820 this is again the era of 1990, where Mullah Umar with the Pakistan ISI, you know, ran several camps.

00:41:10.660 You know, very interestingly, a few years back, I met some former terrorists in Kashmir,

00:41:16.660 in another part of Kashmir called Kupwara. We met at a cafe there and they confessed.

00:41:22.580 They were strong built, you know, more than six feet height, people who have, who had made, you know,

00:41:28.420 stayed in prison for almost two decades. And they confessed to me that, you know, they were made to

00:41:34.260 cross in 1990 from Kashmir to Pakistan. And in Pakistan, they met a colonel of the Pakistan.

00:41:40.340 Pakistan ISI, who blindfolded them, put them onto a truck, hundreds of them, and sent them to 0.87

00:41:45.700 Afghanistan. And in Afghanistan, they realized that, you know, hey, we are here in Afghanistan.

00:41:50.420 And they were pushed into a camp for three months, which was run by Mullah Umar and all these people.

00:41:56.900 And Mullah Umar and others, with the support of the Pakistan ISI and others, trained them.

00:42:01.860 And finally, they unleashed a war, you know, in Kashmir, where innocents were killed. 0.78

00:42:05.940 So this is an ongoing process. Now, of course, the Biden administration says that they will

00:42:12.740 see their diplomatic ties with Pakistan. They will see some kind of a realignment with Pakistan.

00:42:19.620 But I don't see a situation where the United States still realizes the consequences

00:42:25.860 of letting a pass on Pakistan. The same happened with Trump. You know, Trump, when he immediately

00:42:33.140 came to power, the Trump administration said, we will go hammer and tongs against Pakistan.

00:42:38.980 We will end the defense budget completely that is allotted to them. We will not have a security or

00:42:44.020 a terror corporation until they give us in writing or some kind of a proof that they will act against

00:42:49.860 terrorists. And look what happened. Trump fought, you know, over the years became so close to Pakistan

00:42:56.500 that finally, you know, Zalmay Khalilsev was appointed, who anyways was hated by the Pakistanis.

00:43:02.820 But, you know, they had a cooperation going. Pakistan was able to, you know, convince not just the CIA,

00:43:10.180 but the State Department as well, that they are their ally. And this is not going to change anytime soon,

00:43:15.780 mind you. And this is going to be the epicenter of the global jihad, the global Islamist terror 0.89

00:43:22.740 organizations. And unfortunately, we have yet to see worse, unfortunately, in the region.

00:43:28.580 Yeah. You know, there's a quote that says in every great successful business, you have the visionary,

00:43:36.260 you have the administrator and you have a son of a bitch, you know, somebody that's just the a-hole 1.00

00:43:39.860 that comes in. Sometimes I wonder if I want a president that is too liked by everybody versus 0.99

00:43:48.260 having somebody that's feared a little bit. You know, what's more important being feared or respected?

00:43:52.180 You hear the saying both, you know, whether you watch Godfather or you read general books and all

00:43:57.140 this other stuff. I don't see a lot of fear with the existing. I don't know if the enemy fears our

00:44:01.620 current administration. They sit there and say, oh, my gosh, I think they're going to retaliate versus

00:44:05.780 at least with the last guy. There was a level of fear from the enemy, which I think is necessary.

00:44:10.020 A question for you in regards to Russia. And this will be the last one to wrap up with. It's been

00:44:14.820 great speaking with you. Patrick, before you ask me the further question,

00:44:19.300 I want to just comment on Biden because you made a very interesting point. You said that about fear

00:44:25.460 of Biden or of United States all across the globe. You know, I was in US last year when the election

00:44:32.180 process had actually begun. I was in D.C. with, you know, State Department had invited me for

00:44:40.980 an event there. And I witnessed the Iowa caucuses. I went to Iowa. I saw Biden. I met other leaders,

00:44:48.740 etc. And I almost predicted to my friends that here is Biden. You know, I respect him for his political

00:44:55.380 journey. I respect him for his conviction of courage. You know, he might have massive challenges.

00:45:01.940 He might have his own difficulties or criticisms. But, you know, here is a leader who has to be

00:45:07.780 there. So I won't call myself a Biden fan. But, you know, I respected his vision. I respected his

00:45:13.060 political journey, the hardships of life that he suffered. And he gave a fantastic speech on the

00:45:18.740 inauguration day. A wonderful speech that he gave, you know, which talked about how the wars need to

00:45:25.220 end, how, you know, there needs to be some kind of a compassion. And, you know, America will be there

00:45:31.380 as a superpower for the entire world. And how, you know, the focus will shift towards important issues

00:45:37.220 like climate change, etc. And that was with this, you know, with John Kerry's appointment, etc. But to

00:45:44.660 shut your eyes, to become a mute spectator, to not realize the consequences of each step that you take,

00:45:53.620 and the steps that were taken initially by the Obama government, or by the Trump government, or the Bush

00:45:59.540 administration. And now, you're just taking a U-turn, you're taking the most easiest thing to do,

00:46:05.540 and imagining people not realizing the consequences, the security challenges that this will lead to. So,

00:46:11.940 in my opinion, in the last 16 to 18 months, my opinion on Biden has drastically changed.

00:46:19.540 I do not see Biden with the same light. I think that Biden needs to rethink, recalibrate his strategy,

00:46:27.460 not just vis-a-vis South Asia, not just vis-a-vis Afghanistan and Pakistan, but with China as well,

00:46:33.060 with court, which was being talked about, you know, not playing so much of a relevant role that it has

00:46:40.260 to. So, I feel that Biden is not realizing the blunders or historic blunders that he is committing.

00:46:49.220 And perhaps, as you rightly pointed out, we'll only see five to 10 years down the line of what the

00:46:53.860 consequences of each of these steps really will be.

00:46:56.340 You know, we can wrap up on that. I'll share this with you. There are... I thought he was a good

00:47:00.820 two, Biden. You know, a lot of times, companies make a mistake. They take an employee within the

00:47:05.380 company that's been there for 30 years, and they're like, oh, this guy has the most, you know,

00:47:09.220 social capital. He knows the most about the company. He has the most history. He's been around

00:47:13.220 from day one when the founder was still alive, and he knew the wife and the kids and all of a sudden,

00:47:16.980 we need to make him the new CEO, and then make him the CEO. And the company goes from growing

00:47:20.820 out 22% to now lose its 18% because he simply is not a good number one. It is a very different...

00:47:28.100 Bill Clinton was a good number one. Certain people were good number ones. This guy's not

00:47:33.140 a good number one. He's a good two, three, four, five. He's not a good number one. There's a very

00:47:36.340 different pressure to being a CEO, a founder, a person running the largest corporation in the world

00:47:44.500 called the United States of America in a climate like this, where China's trying to exploit 0.99

00:47:49.860 and be the biggest empire to compete against the US. And it's the philosophy of wars on how they

00:47:56.820 govern versus how we govern. We like freedom of speech. They don't like it. They like censorship.

00:48:02.020 I think the mistake was on who was going to be number one. And even the topic right now is who

00:48:07.700 would have been different handling a situation like this, Biden or Hillary? You'd be amazed how

00:48:10.820 many people are saying Hillary would have been much better for the job than Biden would have been.

00:48:14.180 But anyways, it is what it is. And I agree. And I hope that Biden realizes this does some

00:48:20.100 course correction because there's still time. There's still time. I'm hoping against hope.

00:48:24.580 I know that. But let's see how things are. But that's not how it works. I don't think that's how

00:48:29.460 it works. I don't think when you're when you put the wrong person at the one spot, that person has

00:48:35.140 always been like that for 80 years. They're not going to all of a sudden change. Your DNA is your DNA.

00:48:40.340 You can't get a person that's a point guard to be a center all of a sudden. You can't do that.

00:48:44.260 You're a point guard. You're not a center. Michael Jordan wasn't a good basketball coach,

00:48:49.940 but he was a great player. Certain people are not meant to be number one. This guy's not a

00:48:54.900 number one. And we're paying a price for it right now. My suggestion would be to see a different.

00:49:01.540 Anyways, my solution is a different solution, but it's not a solution that would work in the current

00:49:05.380 system that we have here. But anyways, listen, you and I try to solve every problem in the world

00:49:08.740 in 45 minutes. I don't know if we're successful, but I think we had a great conversation here

00:49:12.580 together. And I appreciate you taking the time for coming on. And I look forward to having you

00:49:17.620 back on again in the future. Absolutely, Patrick. It was a pleasure. Thank you so much.

00:49:21.380 Take care of yourself. Thank you. Bye bye. Somebody who voted for Biden, but is not happy about what

00:49:25.220 happened with Afghanistan. What are your thoughts about what happened with Afghanistan? Do you think we

00:49:29.380 made the right decisions? Was there better sequencing? Curious to know your thoughts. Comment below.

00:49:33.380 And if you enjoyed this interview, I have a feeling you're also going to like the interview I did with

00:49:36.740 Matt Zeller on similar topics. He's a former CIA operative. If you've never watched that,

00:49:40.580 click here to watch that one. Take care, everybody. Bye bye.

Valuetainment - October 06, 2021

Future of Afghanistan Under Taliban Control - What’s Next？

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