Valuetainment - “Heating Prices is Up 31%” - Bills SPIKING Before Winter Arrives

00:00:00.040 Okay, when I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice.

00:00:04.800 I want to help my kids, and I want to give back to the community.

00:00:07.940 Ooh, then it's the vacation of a lifetime.

00:00:12.200 I wonder if my out-of-office has a forever setting.

00:00:15.740 An IG Private Wealth Advisor creates the clarity you need

00:00:19.060 with plans that harmonize your business, your family, and your dreams.

00:00:23.480 Get financial advice that puts you at the center.

00:00:26.440 Find your advisor at igprivatewealth.com.

00:00:30.000 heating oil let's tell the story because this is truly concerning a lot of different people

00:00:34.480 especially in the northeast of what could happen a lot of people talk about diesel they talk about

00:00:38.800 gas prices but heating oil bill is expected to jump ready 31.3 percent this winter with northeast

00:00:49.380 households averaging nearly twenty three hundred dollars averaging twenty three hundred dollars

00:00:57.300 So let's kind of go through this.

00:00:59.300 Heating oil households will pay an average of $2,300 between mid-November and mid-March, a 31.3% increase from last winter.

00:01:06.200 The National Energy Assistant Director Association projected nearly 4.8 million U.S. homes.

00:01:10.740 Ready? 4.8 million U.S. homes.

00:01:13.420 Homes.

00:01:13.840 How many people live per home?

00:01:15.620 Two, four, five?

00:01:17.240 4.8 million U.S. homes using heating oil, about 82% in the northeast.

00:01:21.640 The U.S. war with Iran that began at the end of February disrupted shipping through the Strait.

00:01:28.220 Brent crude, the source of nearly all U.S. heating oil, sat at 106 a barrel in mid-September, up more than 30 percent from previous to when the war began.

00:01:36.860 While the war may be thousands of miles away, families will feel it when the heating oil truck pulls into their driveway, said NEADA Executive Director Mark Wolf.

00:01:46.360 President Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen the strait,

00:01:49.600 and senators from both parties have asked him to release emergency heating oil.

00:01:52.640 The American Gas Association projected gas households will pay about 14 percent less

00:01:57.720 than last winter, averaging $4.97 versus $7.94 for electric space heating

00:02:03.840 with record dry gas production expected in 2026.

00:02:09.140 NEADA forecasts overall winter heating costs rise more than 8.7 percent

00:02:14.340 to a national average of 10.30.

00:02:16.180 Tom, thoughts on this?

00:02:17.000 So let's go take a look at a chart.

00:02:18.140 I just sent the guys a chart right here.

00:02:19.820 Click on one year.

00:02:20.720 Perfect, one year.

00:02:21.940 Take a look at this, Pat.

00:02:23.240 If you go down to February, at the end of last winter, Vinny, $2.47, $2.38.

00:02:30.580 You see that?

00:02:31.700 Multiply that times two, $4.80.

00:02:33.620 Go look at where we are right now.

00:02:34.860 We're at $4.36.

00:02:38.100 You know what this means.

00:02:39.740 It's going to be 2x.

00:02:41.160 There it is, Pat.

00:02:42.040 It's about to be 2x.

00:02:44.340 At $4.80, it's exactly 2x last winter.

00:02:48.280 So those people are going to have double the price of heating oil one winter to the next.

00:02:55.080 That's not sustainable.

00:02:57.020 And earlier today, right after the jobs report, President Trump called on Europe to release their surplus stocks of diesel because he's trying to bring more diesel into the market to help.

00:03:08.920 That's what's going on.

00:03:10.220 So we need a reversal.

00:03:13.740 But, Pat, I don't think we can get it.

00:03:15.700 It takes about, they said, 75 days to turn the price based on.

00:03:20.440 What do you think we won't get it?

00:03:22.400 I don't think we're going to get a decrease unless it's artificial.

00:03:25.620 It takes 75 days.

00:03:26.800 75 days today is what?

00:03:28.800 November and October, November is 60 days.

00:03:33.320 And then, you know, that's December 10th.

00:03:35.480 Here comes winter.

00:03:36.780 You know, you're going to see how cold it is just watching playoff games.

00:03:41.240 Baseball, it's going to be down into the 50s.

00:03:43.060 You guys got to remind me of their place.

00:03:44.400 It's time for that.

00:03:45.740 So I saw this coming, and I'm really heavy about it because this is really.

00:03:52.360 No, this is real because this is going to really impact the consumer.

00:03:55.280 2x.

00:03:55.920 2x.

00:03:56.460 That's real cost that we're talking about.

00:03:58.960 And so, Tom, when this happens, you know, to some,

00:04:03.320 what percentage of these 4.8 million households do you think it will impact directly?

00:04:09.280 Of course it's 100% of them, but which one of them are going to be like,

00:04:11.940 turn off the heater you know let's do this wear more clothes what percentage you think can even

00:04:17.980 financially afford this increase i probably only about 60 because a lot of people are on natural

00:04:23.960 gas and newer home communities and the the heating oil is in some of the older communities and older

00:04:28.740 homes so you know i'm going to say there's probably um a full third that's going to be my

00:04:37.800 I guess a full third of the customers in the Northeast have limited budgets and can't take that hit.

00:04:44.120 Okay, when I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice.

00:04:48.760 I want to help my kids, and I want to give back to the community.

00:04:51.900 Ooh, then it's the vacation of a lifetime.

00:04:56.280 I wonder if my out-of-office has a forever setting.

00:04:59.160 An IG private wealth advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business, your family, and your dreams.

00:05:07.460 Get financial advice that puts you at the center.

00:05:10.460 Find your advisor at IGPrivateWealth.com.

00:05:15.120 Vinny, thoughts on this?

00:05:17.440 I'm going back to it.

00:05:18.520 So, Tom, this is all coming from what?

00:05:20.400 Why the drastic increase?

00:05:23.760 Refining cost and the cost of a barrel of oil.

00:05:26.180 The cost of a barrel of oil is about 60% of the increase in gasoline.

00:05:30.640 The other is the increase in refining cost, also known as 3-2-1 crack spread.

00:05:35.320 Those two things are there.

00:05:36.700 We've closed refineries in California.

00:05:38.780 We closed a refinery on the Gulf Coast.

00:05:40.940 We have not built new refineries or refinery capacity.

00:05:43.980 So the refining is up.

00:05:45.820 The cost to refine is up because of the shortage of factories to refine it.

00:05:49.780 But then $99, I think, today.

00:05:52.960 Is it a barrel?

00:05:53.680 I think it's $99 a barrel.

00:05:55.480 So, Tommy, what are you just saying?

00:05:57.560 It's supply and demand?

00:05:59.180 No, no.

00:06:00.640 Yes, it's supply of oil, but it's also supply of refining.

00:06:04.300 And it's going to take a while to turn this.

00:06:06.320 Because even if you brought the price of oil down, you're only going to get about 60% of the increase in cost for gasoline diesel down.

00:06:13.540 So is it safe to say the short-term pain for the long-term game?

00:06:16.360 It's not going to be a short-term pain, Tom.

00:06:18.380 This is going to take a long time.

00:06:20.080 This is going to be a long-term pain because they have to build it.

00:06:22.760 No, they have to build a refineries.

00:06:24.520 I hope that there's some artificial means to do it.

00:06:26.320 It doesn't appear that the natural market forces are going to be able to turn the corner on this until maybe the second half of the winter.

00:06:34.160 and it's not going to go down to where it was last January.

00:06:36.940 Adam.

00:06:37.880 Well, being that I'm from Miami, I've never had to worry about a heating bill,

00:06:42.220 so this is not something I'm familiar with.

00:06:43.720 I will say that winter is coming for all you people out there,

00:06:45.660 and you might want to get a nice jacket like the one Vinny's wearing to stay warm.

00:06:49.460 But can we touch on the story that is right above that one,

00:06:52.460 where it talks about the everyday cost increase and the high gas prices

00:06:56.100 that are spurring states to waive taxes and regulations amid midterms,

00:07:01.580 which kind of, I think, correlates with this story.

00:07:04.160 which, in my interpretation, this is a great move that certain states are doing.

00:07:08.300 You know how they say that all politics are local?

00:07:10.760 Yes, we acknowledge that prices are up.

00:07:14.260 Tom taught me a lot about Brent oil and West Texas oil.

00:07:18.660 Dubai oil.

00:07:19.200 Dubai oil.

00:07:20.020 Tom was teaching me all this stuff.

00:07:21.540 It's like wine.

00:07:22.700 By the way, your clip that you put on VT has like a half a million views.

00:07:28.100 It was great.

00:07:28.960 Oh, on gasoline.

00:07:29.760 On gasoline, it was great.

00:07:30.740 But what I found interesting is that certain states can do certain measurements to actually lower the cost.

00:07:38.280 It says about one-third of U.S. states have implemented some form of fuel tax relief.

00:07:44.200 But here's the catch, and this is where politics get into it.

00:07:47.560 Most of those states, if not all, are Republican states.

00:07:51.260 They're red states.

00:07:51.880 governors in alabama arkansas louisiana missouri nebraska north carolina north dakota oklahoma and

00:07:58.820 texas have all provided fuel tax relief for their agriculture and have helped lower tax costs trucks

00:08:05.980 and tractors on farm because they actually want to help their people now in my opinion why are the

00:08:11.160 blue states not helping their people we all know that california new york new jersey connecticut

00:08:16.860 who all trend incredibly blue, why don't they lower the cost for their people?

00:08:22.040 Because in my opinion, they want their people to feel the increase of cost.

00:08:27.840 Feel the pain.

00:08:28.360 And say, Trump did this to you.

00:08:30.280 Bad orange man.

00:08:30.620 We're not going to do anything, nothing to lower the cost. 0.77

00:08:34.240 We're going to actually hold up this price and make you suffer more.

00:08:38.520 So this is where this gets a real tricky situation.

00:08:41.720 Because each of these states are helping their people.

00:08:44.160 in red states, blue states are doing nothing.

00:08:47.000 Let me give you this here.

00:08:47.940 The NEADA says low-income Northeast households alone

00:08:51.340 are expected to pay almost $1.1 billion more

00:08:55.200 in heating this winter.

00:08:57.340 You divide it apart, that's around 878 increase average

00:09:00.800 that points to an order of magnitude

00:09:03.180 of around 1.2 to 1.3 million low-income oil-heated households.

00:09:09.120 So then if I'm asking a question and saying,

00:09:10.760 who are these people, who gets hit hard? 0.93

00:09:12.700 Seniors and people living in fixed incomes, which makes sense.

00:09:15.320 Households under roughly 60K a year.

00:09:18.320 And I ask what percentage is under 60K a year.

00:09:21.740 The EIA 2024 data shows energy rise.

00:09:24.640 Approximately 64% of households under 10,000.

00:09:27.860 58% of households, 41% at 30,000 to 60,000 reported some form of energy insecurity.

00:09:36.020 Above 100,000, it drops dramatically.

00:09:38.140 Okay, so it makes sense.

00:09:38.880 Above 100,000, you're still going to be fine.

00:09:40.400 at the 60,000 number that's going to be impact.

00:09:44.300 Households already behind on utility bills.

00:09:48.320 NEAD estimates that about 21.5 million U.S. households,

00:09:51.540 roughly one in six, are already behind on energy bills. 0.99

00:09:54.620 Damn. 0.99

00:09:55.920 Did you know that? 1.00

00:09:57.260 I did not know that.

00:09:58.220 I did not know that.

00:09:59.480 Did you hear the number?

00:10:00.800 Vinny, one in six households in America right now

00:10:04.800 are behind on energy bills, not credit cards.

00:10:08.640 Just owing money to...

00:10:10.800 That's scary.

00:10:11.160 So one in six, 21.5 million households are behind on energy bills.

00:10:16.240 Low-income households currently spend about 8.6% of their income on household energy

00:10:20.700 versus 3% for other households and people in New England.

00:10:24.640 This is extremely concentrated geographically in an AIA 2020 data.

00:10:28.760 Roughly 53% of Maine and Vermont households, 43% in New Hampshire, 40% in Connecticut,

00:10:34.100 32% of Rhode Island, 26% of Massachusetts received few oil deliveries.

00:10:38.880 Maine was still around 50% dependent on heating oil in 2024.

00:10:44.040 And last but not least is old folks' homes, old homeowners, old homeowners.

00:10:48.320 Heating oil is much more common in the older northeastern.

00:10:51.560 This is, we're praying for you.

00:10:54.140 This, you know, hopefully they figure this part out

00:10:57.260 and some states find ways to get creative with this.

00:11:00.360 But I kind of agree that they're not going to let this happen

00:11:05.440 because they need this crisis to blame it on Trump.

00:11:07.260 They need it.

00:11:07.980 There's no way in the world they're going to fix it.

00:11:08.960 You can choose not to drive.

00:11:10.200 You can't choose not to freeze.

00:11:12.020 We got a special announcement for you.

00:11:13.760 If you notice why I'm wearing the jacket here,

00:11:15.540 this beautiful jacket that on the back it says faith over fear.

00:11:19.100 I want my friend to my left, your right, Vincent O'Shanna,

00:11:22.220 to tell you about this jacket.

00:11:23.080 Well, thank you, Pat.

00:11:23.640 So, guys, we had this jacket for insiders only at the vault,

00:11:27.660 And they were sold

00:11:29.340 I think they sold in two days

00:11:31.640 I called you I'm like Vinny let's go have lunch

00:11:33.220 You're like Pat I can't everybody wants this jacket

00:11:35.360 Everybody was buying this jacket

00:11:36.920 So I want to let you guys know

00:11:38.360 The front of it has our crest

00:11:40.040 We have the lion crest here as well

00:11:42.780 And on the back guys

00:11:43.720 Our hats say faith over fear

00:11:45.960 This is kind of small

00:11:46.800 This is letting people know right off the jump

00:11:49.020 Faith over fear is on the back 0.84

00:11:50.380 Is that ridiculous with Hebrews 11.1 on the back

00:11:53.720 The inside of the jacket 0.52

00:11:55.860 It has all of our shields.

00:11:58.740 I'm telling you right now, how warm is it?

00:12:00.340 We're talking about winter.

00:12:01.400 Be real.

00:12:02.060 It's freaking warm in this thing.

00:12:03.580 I love it.

00:12:03.980 So, guys, and everybody was asking.

00:12:05.920 And I'm telling you guys right now, limited supply.

00:12:07.980 We only have 100.

00:12:08.900 Yep.

00:12:09.100 100.

00:12:09.800 And they're going to go like that.

00:12:11.080 A guy came up to you.

00:12:12.840 What did he do? 1.00

00:12:13.220 An atheist. 1.00

00:12:14.200 I'm outside.

00:12:15.180 Adam's inside the store talking to people and taking photos.

00:12:17.260 A guy goes out to me wearing the jacket.

00:12:18.600 He's like, Vinny.

00:12:19.220 Oh, my God.

00:12:19.540 He goes, listen, I'm going to be honest with you.

00:12:21.280 I'm not a big believer.

00:12:22.680 I believe in some spiritual something.

00:12:24.740 I'm basically an atheist, but I have to rock the jacket

00:12:27.300 because I love how it looks.

00:12:28.860 An atheist bought this jacket, and Adam was there.

00:12:32.120 Adam's my witness.

00:12:32.840 So, anyway, guys, go right now to FLB.com and get yours.

00:12:36.620 I'm almost positive this is going to be gone by the time the show's over.

00:12:40.700 And, by the way, if you do it right, get the hat and the shirt with it

00:12:44.040 to have the entire combination, the white shirt that goes with it,

00:12:48.020 and kind of like Vinny right now, the white shirt, the jacket, and the hat.

00:12:51.640 Go to FLB.com.

00:12:52.560 less than a hundred of these jackets left, especially by sizes.

00:12:56.460 If you enjoy this video, you want to watch more videos like this, click here.

00:12:59.400 And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.

00:13:06.440 Feel like you know enough to start your own sports podcast?

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Valuetainment - October 05, 2026

“Heating Prices is Up 31%” - Bills SPIKING Before Winter Arrives

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