Valuetainment - “Howard Lutnick Is The Problem” – Eric Bolling BLASTS Trump’s Tariff Plan As Anti-Free Market

00:00:00.000 Eric, your background, for some of the audience that don't know,

00:00:02.740 your background is actually finance before you got into TV.

00:00:05.320 If you don't mind, for some folks that don't know,

00:00:06.920 maybe take a minute or two and give a little bit about your background in finance.

00:00:09.960 Sure. I was a professional baseball player.

00:00:12.920 I blew my rotator cuff out and had nowhere to go, nothing to do.

00:00:16.000 I ended up in New York on Wall Street

00:00:17.480 and started on the New York Mercantile Exchange trading energy futures.

00:00:22.340 And I spent 12 years there.

00:00:24.460 I got to the boardroom.

00:00:26.920 I became a board member, brought the exchange public.

00:00:28.940 The first major financial, certainly exchange that went public on my push.

00:00:36.720 And I spent 15 years total on Wall Street and I've never left it.

00:00:40.980 I've traded, I continue to trade oil.

00:00:42.980 I trade gold, silver, agricultural commodities, but I'm an active stock trader as well.

00:00:49.400 And so I'm in and out of this.

00:00:51.700 And tariffs, honestly, Patrick, I just don't get it.

00:00:56.360 I'm an original MAGA.

00:00:58.460 I'm an OG MAGA.

00:00:59.620 Sorry, Chris.

00:01:00.220 I know you're not going to love this.

00:01:01.360 But one of the original Trump supporters, one of the original Steve Bannon supporters,

00:01:05.540 because back in the day when Bannon and Andrew Breitbart were developing America First,

00:01:12.340 I followed them.

00:01:14.320 And they were great.

00:01:15.460 And they brought President Trump to the presidency the first time.

00:01:19.180 So the original MAGA support, I do not get this idea of applying tariffs on the whole world.

00:01:27.320 We are the biggest consumer on the planet.

00:01:29.120 We have a lot of ways of exerting pressure on China to lower their tariffs and others, Brazil.

00:01:34.960 One of them would be use our massive oil infrastructure.

00:01:38.760 I mean, Trump loves to drill oil.

00:01:40.300 If we drilled a ton more oil, if we put liquefied natural gas, which we can now do to the point where we satisfy all of our domestic demand,

00:01:48.320 the excess demand, we could offer to China and say, look, you want to make a deal, lower your tariffs.

00:01:53.960 We will sell you LNG at market price without a tariff.

00:01:57.940 If you want to keep your tariffs, we'll jack it up.

00:02:00.120 China needs the oil.

00:02:01.320 They need that.

00:02:02.180 They're desperately seeking oil.

00:02:03.520 That's why they have the partnership with Russia.

00:02:06.660 Point is, I've done this for a really, really long time.

00:02:09.300 It's the one area I just can't get behind.

00:02:12.540 Free marketeer here.

00:02:13.860 And anytime government gets involved in anything in the markets, they pretty much screw it up.

00:02:18.800 Okay, so let's start off with the tariff topic.

00:02:20.580 I like that.

00:02:21.120 So Trump exempts phones, computers, and chips from new tariffs.

00:02:25.100 Rob, if you want to pull up the clip on that.

00:02:27.940 Here's President Trump talking about what they're doing with phones, computers, and chips.

00:02:32.160 Go for it.

00:02:34.060 Short-lived product exemptions.

00:02:36.740 Which specific products are you considering and how long is short-lived?

00:02:40.420 At least months?

00:02:41.020 I'm looking at something to help some of the car companies where they're switching to parts

00:02:46.220 that were made in Canada, Mexico, and other places.

00:02:49.340 And they need a little bit of time because they're going to make them here.

00:02:54.140 But they need a little bit of time.

00:02:55.540 So I'm talking about things like that.

00:02:57.080 What about any Apple products, other cell phones?

00:03:01.120 Look, I'm a very flexible person.

00:03:03.340 I don't change my mind, but I'm flexible.

00:03:05.840 And you have to be.

00:03:06.600 You just can't have a wall and you'll only go.

00:03:09.660 No, sometimes you have to go around it, under it, or above it.

00:03:12.320 There'll be maybe things coming up.

00:03:16.200 I speak to Tim Cook.

00:03:17.320 I helped Tim Cook recently in that whole business.

00:03:21.120 I don't want to hurt anybody.

00:03:23.380 But the end result is we're going to get to the position of greatness for our country.

00:03:28.200 We're the greatest economic power in the world if we're smart.

00:03:32.660 If we're not smart, we're going to hurt our country very badly.

00:03:36.540 So the latest number, Robert, if you can verify this, I think it's U.S. 145% tariff on China.

00:03:43.680 China's 125% tariff on U.S.

00:03:46.060 Okay?

00:03:46.700 It doesn't look like it's slowing down.

00:03:48.720 Xi just went to Vietnam.

00:03:50.060 Vietnam was the first person that we said we're going to lift the tariff.

00:03:53.000 So he's going to his neighbors to say, hey, don't forget we have a great relationship together.

00:03:56.760 The whole concept of we'll build this stuff here, we'll say made in China, but we'll put made in Vietnam.

00:04:01.380 We're still going to keep that agreement.

00:04:02.660 Let's not forget some of the stuff that we have going on here.

00:04:05.440 But you're not liking the position they're taking with tariffs.

00:04:08.420 Why is that?

00:04:09.740 Because, again, government getting involved in anything, they screw everything up.

00:04:14.060 Price controls screw up supply demand.

00:04:16.900 Just let supply and demand find the right one.

00:04:18.980 Now, originally, they launched it as we're going to put an equivocal tariff on any certain country, China, Brazil, Germany, whatever you're charging us.

00:04:30.260 Reciprocal.

00:04:31.200 Reciprocal.

00:04:31.700 Yeah.

00:04:32.020 Problem is they didn't do that, Patch.

00:04:33.580 What they did was they took the trade imbalance with the country.

00:04:36.500 For example, China, $130 billion trade imbalance.

00:04:39.660 That's what they sell us more than we sell them.

00:04:42.640 And they divided that number by the total export China into America, which is fine, but it's an equation.

00:04:48.980 It has nothing to do with their tariff structure at all.

00:04:51.500 It's a trade imbalance number.

00:04:53.640 And they came off, like, I think 64%, and they said, oh, we're going to do 32%.

00:04:57.500 They did that with every single country in the world.

00:05:00.160 It had nothing to do with the actual tariffs.

00:05:02.380 So they sold it as we're going to raise our tariffs reciprocally, and when you lower country A, B, or C, we will lower with you, which is great.

00:05:11.460 That's fine.

00:05:12.060 You want to play that game?

00:05:13.180 Wonderful.

00:05:14.060 Then it became something different.

00:05:15.480 Then it became, we're doing this to everyone, and now we have 15 countries who want to negotiate.

00:05:21.080 Now we have 150 countries that want to negotiate.

00:05:24.020 And it became more about the world leaders coming to the Trump administration and begging for some relief, which isn't the real nature of it.

00:05:33.340 You want to play the tariff game, play it where the purpose is to lower tariffs completely both directions.

00:05:40.300 And I think they lost that script for a while.

00:05:43.500 They're trying to get it back now.

00:05:45.420 And then this whole idea of choosing certain industries to exempt from tariffs, not necessarily countries, but industries, chips, cell phones, computers, it just, I just don't like, I'm a free market person, Patrick.

00:05:58.120 The free market is what made this country number one, the greatest country on the planet, bar none, because we had the most free business environment markets.

00:06:06.840 And the tariff disrupts that whole apple cart.

00:06:09.840 Tom, your thoughts on this?

00:06:11.500 Well, Trump said, I want to leverage, I want to leverage things to get the world to come to the table.

00:06:17.760 And so, okay, we're using tariffs.

00:06:19.780 And I, and I'm on board with that.

00:06:21.660 But then the calculation of how you get them to the world, I thought that they, they kind of lost the headline there because it's like, wait a minute, how, to, to your point, how are you calculating to get them to the table?

00:06:34.860 You want to get them to the table and say, hey, look, you got two things here.

00:06:38.100 One of them is tariffs.

00:06:39.120 And, you know, you're not really bad on tariffs, Eric.

00:06:41.880 But you know what?

00:06:42.660 I know you're cheating.

00:06:43.720 And I know you got intellectual property things going on.

00:06:45.660 And I, and I know you've got some relabeling on country of origin.

00:06:48.640 And that's annoying.

00:06:49.600 So let's fix that.

00:06:50.960 So maybe the tariff gets them to the table.

00:06:52.860 Maybe leverage gets them to the table.

00:06:54.320 So you can talk about all these other things.

00:06:56.140 You know, the, the biggest one to deal with is China. 0.80

00:07:00.020 The biggest one to deal with.

00:07:01.280 But, Tom, I don't mean to interrupt, but they didn't use a tariff and add on difficulty getting into your market or back and forth.

00:07:09.780 They didn't use that.

00:07:10.740 They literally took the trade imbalance of country A, B, or C, and they divided it by the exports.

00:07:15.720 I agree.

00:07:15.940 That's why I said I was confused by the calculation, but I understood the purpose.

00:07:18.480 Which is a non-formula.

00:07:20.080 It is a formula that does not exist.

00:07:22.100 It's a formula, but it's not what they sold us.

00:07:24.640 Right.

00:07:24.820 It's not what they said.

00:07:25.660 It was going to be a tariff, we'll raise to you.

00:07:29.060 Oh, and they said we're going to be lenient and only do half.

00:07:31.720 Right.

00:07:32.040 But the number they are using is the tariff that, that we're being charged had nothing to do with the tariff.

00:07:37.520 And again, I'm putting this on Howard Lutnick because this is Howard Lutnick's baby here.

00:07:42.360 And I've known that guy for 30 years.

00:07:45.580 I wouldn't trust him to, you know, park my car over there.

00:07:51.040 Lutnick's the problem.

00:07:51.960 Only the best.

00:07:52.720 Tell me why.

00:07:53.740 Only the best.

00:07:55.160 You want me to tell you why?

00:07:56.100 Yeah.

00:07:56.980 Trump brings in only the best, though.

00:07:58.780 What?

00:07:59.560 Only the best.

00:08:00.820 Again, so I was on with O'Reilly and he said, oh, Ballinger, you're a MAGA psychophant.

00:08:05.680 He can do no wrong.

00:08:07.240 Is there anyone in this administration, he may know, I think he made a mistake with Lutnick.

00:08:11.520 I just, I believe you do.

00:08:12.740 Chris, you and I were in New York when the World Trade Center came down, right?

00:08:15.960 Oh, boy.

00:08:16.860 Howard Lutnick was CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald.

00:08:19.640 Howard was, wasn't at the World Trade Center the day it came down because he was taking

00:08:25.460 his kid to school.

00:08:26.680 Right.

00:08:27.200 His brother dies.

00:08:28.780 115 of his employees die.

00:08:30.400 The families of his employees weren't, didn't have money.

00:08:36.960 They didn't have health care.

00:08:38.460 They had to sue Howard Lutnick to get health care.

00:08:41.280 Correct me if I'm wrong.

00:08:43.560 I mean, this is, this is out there.

00:08:45.060 It's a bad history.

00:08:45.460 But it's 25 years ago and people are like, oh, Howard Lutnick.

00:08:48.160 They don't remember.

00:08:49.240 Since then, my first experience with Howard Lutnick, because I was trading oil on the

00:08:53.220 New York Mercantile Exchange.

00:08:54.380 I was on the board.

00:08:55.340 We were huge.

00:08:56.420 We were growing.

00:08:57.200 We were the premier oil trading platform in the world.

00:09:01.240 For every single barrel of oil, it was, price was discovered on the New York Merc, and

00:09:05.320 it still is.

00:09:06.960 I was a board member there.

00:09:07.940 Howard calls from Canter before the World Trade Center comes down.

00:09:12.160 He says, I'm going to put you guys out of business.

00:09:14.360 I'm developing an oil contract that is going to bury the New York Mercantile Exchange.

00:09:18.200 So I went over there with a couple of other board members to have a nice conversation with

00:09:21.960 him to see if there's a way we could all work together to put, to discover prices for

00:09:27.800 oil.

00:09:28.060 The more price discovery, the more people involved, the better.

00:09:31.040 He just literally looked at this and I'm going to develop the contract, putting you guys

00:09:34.780 out of business.

00:09:35.580 Make a long story short.

00:09:36.540 The exchange is still here.

00:09:38.200 It's a $150 billion entity, and Howard's making tariff numbers.

00:09:45.240 Why do you think he is, though?

00:09:46.340 Why do you think he is?

00:09:47.580 So for everybody, they have a sword to die on, right?

00:09:50.700 If we're talking about specific to tariffs, why do you think that's Lutnik's sword to die

00:09:56.400 on?

00:09:57.300 Well, I think he sold it as his expertise.

00:10:00.720 I mean, he came in as the commerce secretary, and he had an idea.

00:10:04.440 Trump liked the idea, but the problem is that the idea of raising your own tariffs to reduce

00:10:12.220 global tariffs on incoming imports, their exports are imports, is a nice idea.

00:10:18.540 It's maybe it would work.

00:10:20.680 Maybe it wouldn't.

00:10:21.180 I don't know.

00:10:21.740 Maybe it throws people, the world into a global recession.

00:10:24.780 I'm not sure, but he sold it, and Trump kind of liked the idea, and then he got away.

00:10:30.260 It became something different.

00:10:31.480 I think it'll get back to what the original was.

00:10:33.820 So, by the way, I want to make sure we're fair here.

00:10:35.660 Rob, can you pull up what happened with Lutnik?

00:10:38.160 Because I don't know the whole story.

00:10:39.180 They got a chunk of money as a settlement, right, as a lot of the people who were affected did.

00:10:43.680 The initial criticism was that Lutnik had taken a lot of the money, and it looked like

00:10:49.300 it was going to go his way, not the family's way.

00:10:51.860 Over time, he did more and more for the families.

00:10:55.640 They got insurance.

00:10:56.560 They got settlements.

00:10:57.440 Correct.

00:10:57.660 But it was a bad look early on.

00:11:01.240 Is this about him committing a crime?

00:11:03.080 No. 0.99

00:11:03.400 Is it about him screwing them, period? 0.99

00:11:04.940 No, no. 0.90

00:11:05.680 I'm not suggesting he committed any crimes.

00:11:06.520 I want to make sure, because I'm reading this here.

00:11:08.020 But there was bad blood early on.

00:11:08.740 He promised to give 25% of Cantor's future profits to the families, the 658 employees

00:11:13.520 who died.

00:11:14.680 And over the years, he gave more than $180 million distributed to those families.

00:11:18.740 He's also created a relief fund offering health care and financial support to those left

00:11:22.580 behind.

00:11:23.660 And Fitzgerald was one of the few companies who stayed in business after losing two-thirds of

00:11:27.540 the staff.

00:11:27.960 So he ended up making it right afterwards with some of the stuff.

00:11:32.140 So I want to make sure we put that.

00:11:32.740 It depends who you ask, but it wound up better than it started.

00:11:37.000 Put it that way.

00:11:38.560 But Eric is not wrong to say that the impression of him was very negative.

00:11:43.600 Fair enough.

00:11:44.160 I wasn't there.

00:11:44.740 I'm not in the know of exactly what happened.

00:11:48.560 If somebody is more interested in it, they can look into it and respond to it here.

00:11:52.020 But let's go to tariff.

00:11:52.760 So, Eric, Chris, are you guys both on the same page on the tariff position with what he's

00:11:57.080 taking?

00:11:57.320 Would you say you're relatively on the same page?

00:11:59.000 I'll add one piece.

00:12:00.620 Please.

00:12:00.920 Okay.

00:12:01.280 Which is, first, you know, this is as nice an assessment as Trump is going to get of

00:12:05.880 this, right?

00:12:06.400 If this had been Biden who had done this, you know, everybody's head would be on fire in

00:12:10.300 this room right now.

00:12:11.560 The ambition is a good ambition.

00:12:15.060 The mistake the left is making is hating the ambition, helping the American worker, having

00:12:21.060 new economy jobs here that pay more, bringing things back that we need to make here so that

00:12:26.080 people can't hold us hostage like happened in the beginning of the pandemic when we didn't

00:12:30.140 have any of the PPE that we needed.

00:12:31.600 I think that's all good.

00:12:33.060 And I think it's wrong to criticize it just because Trump is doing it.

00:12:37.360 That's why I talk about the president and the administration a lot.

00:12:40.680 I try to keep Trump's name out of it so people on the left can keep their head straight about

00:12:44.900 the idea.

00:12:45.320 So I respect the ambition, you know, the expression, we all know it failing to plan is planning

00:12:53.000 to fail.

00:12:53.800 And what they're doing here is a ready shoot aim situation.

00:12:58.260 That's why he has to keep backing off.

00:12:59.980 I have a little bit of a suspicion about why he's helping cook cook, uh, gave him a ton

00:13:04.940 of money, why he's helping the car companies that he is.

00:13:07.880 They gave him a ton of money.

00:13:09.120 I don't think he should play favorites how he wants to do this.

00:13:12.780 Eric is right to question, uh, and you're hearing it.

00:13:15.880 It's not unusual criticism, but the ambition is a good one.

00:13:19.380 I'm, I'm fine with what he wants to do.

00:13:21.260 The question is, is this the way to get it done?

00:13:24.240 It's very hard to find anybody who doesn't work for him who says yes.

00:13:27.820 Can I, can I, uh, can we have a friendly banter here on this topic?

00:13:30.580 Let's just kind of, uh, go through some of the ideas here.

00:13:33.280 So what is the alternative?

00:13:34.980 If, if they don't do it this way and we just sit there and you're like, look, just use the

00:13:40.280 oil reserves.

00:13:40.880 We have plenty of oil.

00:13:42.060 We're going to be okay.

00:13:42.780 Use that as the, you know, method of getting back and, you know, China needs our oil, but

00:13:47.080 don't take this approach.

00:13:48.600 Fair.

00:13:49.060 If we go with that approach, you're assuming a similar type of a leader is going to get

00:13:53.500 elected after him.

00:13:54.560 What if he's not?

00:13:55.700 What if it's going to be a different kind of a president that takes a different approach

00:13:58.220 that doesn't believe in drill, baby, drill. 0.67

00:14:00.180 So, oh, okay.

00:14:00.880 Let's go with tariffs.

00:14:01.820 If we keep it the way it is from, from 1971, where we kind of opened it up and they started

00:14:09.020 doing business to 2001 when world trade organization, they joined it and they kind of started doing

00:14:14.000 more business.

00:14:14.480 How much has China grown compared to us?

00:14:16.340 What happened to us?

00:14:17.120 How much, how many of jobs did we give away?

00:14:18.840 It almost sounds like, Eric, what you're saying is similar to what Yellen is saying.

00:14:23.100 Yellen said, bringing manufacturing back is a pipe dream.

00:14:27.060 I don't understand the rationale for tariffs.

00:14:29.360 You sound like Janet, if that's your position, and you can disagree with it, Rob, if you want

00:14:33.860 to play this clip.

00:14:34.900 This is Janet Yellen, former Treasury Secretary.

00:14:37.220 Go ahead, Rob.

00:14:37.680 Perhaps it's to bring back American manufacturing, but I really think that's a, that's a pipe 0.97

00:14:45.540 dream and not something that is likely to be accomplished.

00:14:50.640 And we could even raise questions about whether or not in a broad-based way, that's a desirable

00:14:56.860 goal.

00:14:57.720 Okay.

00:14:58.320 So this is traditional way of thinking establishment saying this is a pipe dream.

00:15:02.720 What are your thoughts on that?

00:15:03.620 I think Janet Yellen should never been Treasury Secretary. 0.99

00:15:07.040 I think she's ridiculous. 0.70

00:15:08.440 She's the one who said inflation was transitory when it was clearly not transitory for the 0.97

00:15:12.340 better part of four years of Joe Biden's presidency.

00:15:14.760 It was directly tied to their policy.

00:15:17.620 I just happen to also question whether or not raising tariffs will actually create American

00:15:25.980 jobs and what kind of American jobs are we going to create here if we do this?

00:15:29.660 And we're going to, clearly product prices are going to go up by, if all things stay the

00:15:35.080 same, tariffs stay high with China and others, product prices will go up globally.

00:15:40.400 Hopefully there's enough demand to support the higher price.

00:15:42.900 Maybe there is.

00:15:43.560 I believe there's a lot of demand in the U.S. economy right now, but you have to worry about

00:15:47.020 China.

00:15:47.360 China right now is on that precipice of, is there enough demand to keep them paying for

00:15:53.540 their growth?

00:15:54.000 I'm not sure.

00:15:54.620 So that's the risk.

00:15:56.420 And the payoff would be, Patrick, is Tim Cook says, I'll give a half a trillion dollars.

00:16:01.260 We're going to build $500 billion worth of manufacturing in America.

00:16:05.700 Lutnik said, OK, we're going to have Americans screwing those little screws in iPhones. 0.97

00:16:10.220 No, that's not how it happens.

00:16:11.740 They come back.

00:16:12.500 And if they do spend money to build a manufacturing plant here, which would be great, economic

00:16:17.760 activity is good, they'll all be robotics.

00:16:20.940 Every single iPhone will be built with robotics.

00:16:23.340 The only reason why it's not happening now is because it's too expensive to build a new

00:16:26.720 manufacturing plant with the robotics.

00:16:28.360 But if you're going to make it expensive to import, then you'll do it here.

00:16:32.760 And there won't be more Americans working in manufacturing.

00:16:36.100 There'll be more manufacturing, but not more Americans manufacturing products and stuff.

00:16:40.160 Everything's going robotic.

00:16:41.800 But that's going to happen no matter what.

00:16:43.300 I mean, that's not, it's like saying, hey, when back in the days, in the 1900s, you know,

00:16:47.660 41% of people worked in farms and then all of a sudden a tractor and fertilizer eliminated

00:16:53.200 those jobs and they're like, what the hell do I do?

00:16:55.480 And everybody was afraid.

00:16:56.700 But we adjusted.

00:16:57.440 We pivoted to a different place.

00:16:58.540 And that's the key.

00:16:59.200 Yeah.

00:16:59.520 The key is the adjustment.

00:17:00.640 That's why Trump shouldn't liken this to the Gilded Age.

00:17:03.420 OK, I'm sure we all saw what was in the Woodward book where Gary Cohn was trying to explain

00:17:08.640 to the then president in the first term, we don't want to go back to the Gilded Age.

00:17:12.740 Americans don't want that kind of job. 1.00

00:17:14.220 We can do better than that.

00:17:15.800 And Trump, for whatever reason, was fixated on that being America's best time, which is

00:17:20.460 hard to justify economically.

00:17:23.380 You are right to characterize what Lutnik said the way you are, because his quote was taken

00:17:28.680 out of context.

00:17:29.740 He gave a nod that we're not going to be turning screws.

00:17:32.380 Those will be robotic jobs.

00:17:34.860 But why?

00:17:37.020 China underwrites the cost of those factories in their country.

00:17:41.340 So you say you want to start one.

00:17:42.740 We come in with value tainment.

00:17:44.160 We want to do it as a consortium.

00:17:46.160 China underwrites it.

00:17:47.800 That's what the United States has to do.

00:17:50.420 So it's not just starting with tariffs.

00:17:52.640 It's not going to get you where you want to be.

00:17:54.320 The ambition is fine.

00:17:56.020 But what I don't like is China is outplaying us right now in this moment. 0.98

00:18:02.120 They see an opportunity.

00:18:03.640 We overreached.

00:18:04.660 We pissed everybody off.

00:18:06.240 Everybody wants to meet with China all of a sudden, which did not happen before.

00:18:09.140 Who's everybody?

00:18:09.640 Japan, South Korea, the EU.

00:18:13.520 They're taking meetings.

00:18:14.760 Vietnam didn't just talk to Xi.

00:18:17.000 They signed over a dozen new trade deals in that meeting.

00:18:21.940 So China isn't reciprocal tariffing us.

00:18:24.940 What are they doing?

00:18:26.140 Restricting.

00:18:27.080 Meaning what?

00:18:27.940 They're not going to punish their consumers to the extent that they have a robust base there.

00:18:31.680 They're just not allowing us access to these things.

00:18:34.800 They are being very savvy.

00:18:36.760 They need us, though.

00:18:37.400 They definitely need us.

00:18:38.880 They can play with Vietnam and whomever else they want to play with all they want. 0.66

00:18:42.900 But what are we, maybe net-net 20% of their business?

00:18:47.380 20%?

00:18:47.940 We're 14% of exports, maybe 16%.

00:18:50.040 We're probably higher than that number and probably higher on a profitability basis, too.

00:18:55.000 Because not only do we, we don't just buy the little, you know, the Sharpies.

00:18:59.160 We buy iPhones expensive.

00:19:00.940 So there's a lot more profit margin in the stuff we buy.

00:19:04.040 They can't live without, they can't, Chris, they are on, they're on a path to not be able to actually go into more than a recession, maybe even a depression.

00:19:13.200 They can't keep up.

00:19:14.440 I mean, they've grown.

00:19:15.380 They had massive growth.

00:19:16.380 Their growth has almost stopped.

00:19:18.000 But they have structural advantages that Trump doesn't have to worry about.

00:19:20.960 Of course, yeah, in labor.

00:19:21.400 The people don't matter. 0.99

00:19:22.300 In labor.

00:19:23.340 Politicians don't matter. 0.99

00:19:24.500 Labor costs.

00:19:24.920 The currency doesn't matter.

00:19:26.740 You know, they have control over everything.

00:19:28.280 But let me ask you a question, though.

00:19:29.480 Okay, everything you're saying there, this is kind of how I process it.

00:19:33.480 The problem with the U.S. politics, here's a problem that I see, is the leverage she has is what? 1.00

00:19:41.500 When is his next election?

00:19:43.940 She? 0.98

00:19:44.360 She doesn't.

00:19:45.160 That's the point.

00:19:45.840 Yeah.

00:19:46.200 So the problem we have with America is what?

00:19:48.300 When is our next election?

00:19:49.860 Really?

00:19:50.360 Like in 16 months?

00:19:51.460 Yeah, midterms.

00:19:52.420 Okay, so what happens if there's a bloodbath and then, hey, look what's going on.

00:19:55.700 So then you've got to pivot.

00:19:56.840 Oh, my God.

00:19:57.500 So the challenge I have is the following.

00:20:01.420 If we don't do something now and the next president doesn't and the next president, everybody keeps, what's the word?

00:20:08.520 Kicking the can down the road.

00:20:09.160 Kicking, hey, you know, let's just get.

00:20:11.540 And then eventually, all of a sudden, you're going to wake up one day and they're going to be like, hey, guess what?

00:20:16.180 We got you.

00:20:17.340 Now we have you.

00:20:18.520 So because we don't want to deal with a little bit of pain today, we're like, no, no, no.

00:20:23.100 How do they have us?

00:20:26.300 And the portrayal is that because we have such a trade, massive trade imbalance, we're at some sort of.

00:20:34.120 Pull up numbers, Rob.

00:20:35.540 They're there.

00:20:36.460 I agree with you.

00:20:37.040 Pull up numbers.

00:20:37.160 We have a trillion dollar trade.

00:20:38.600 But tariffs aren't the reason for the imbalance.

00:20:40.300 Pull up the numbers.

00:20:41.000 Where was China?

00:20:41.880 Where did China rank in GDP in 1971?

00:20:45.780 Going 1971, where was China?

00:20:47.900 OK.

00:20:48.600 So where do they have us?

00:20:49.860 China was ranked what?

00:20:51.780 China was ranked over eighth.

00:20:53.620 Again, it was out of two points.

00:20:54.380 I mean, it was in 1970, suggesting a similar rank to 71.

00:20:56.960 OK.

00:20:57.460 Then go to where they were in 2001, pre-WTO.

00:21:01.680 OK.

00:21:02.860 And WTO, they were ranked what?

00:21:04.520 Third.

00:21:04.840 They jumped up.

00:21:05.320 OK, go to 2000 instead of 2001.

00:21:07.820 Go to 2000.

00:21:09.260 2000, they're still third?

00:21:10.520 Sixth.

00:21:10.900 Four.

00:21:11.340 Sixth.

00:21:11.960 So they go from sixth.

00:21:14.020 So boom.

00:21:15.380 Top 10.

00:21:16.840 Sixth.

00:21:17.580 WTO.

00:21:18.260 Third.

00:21:18.820 Where are they today?

00:21:19.880 Go to where they are today.

00:21:21.160 Second.

00:21:21.780 OK.

00:21:22.340 So what are the projections of where they're going to be by 2030?

00:21:25.280 First.

00:21:25.740 2035.

00:21:26.620 2040.

00:21:27.280 So we're supposed to sit here and just kind of cave and say a new regime's in town?

00:21:32.260 It's not about the what.

00:21:33.220 It's about the how.

00:21:33.900 Well, the argument you're having is about it's not that we got to do something about China.

00:21:38.680 We have to figure out how to protect ourselves and advance ourselves.

00:21:42.820 I think people can get on the same page with that, or they should.

00:21:45.560 It's the how.

00:21:46.740 The trade deficit is not because of tariffs.

00:21:48.820 In fact, when they got into the WTO, what did they have to do to get into it?

00:21:52.360 Lower their tariffs.

00:21:53.420 So as the trade deficit was growing, they were actually lowering tariffs.

00:21:57.780 So the point is, and what pisses off people like Eric, who understand tariffs, is it's not the right mechanism.

00:22:05.360 Yeah, I have a hard time with that, Chris.

00:22:06.700 Let me put it to you how I look at it.

00:22:08.200 So you said the way they could get on WTO was what?

00:22:11.020 To lower their tariffs.

00:22:11.840 They lowered their tariffs when they got in.

00:22:13.260 So let me ask you a question.

00:22:13.960 And for years after that.

00:22:14.640 Let me ask you a question.

00:22:15.240 How much has China shown a track record of following rules and guidelines and things that ask agreements to do?

00:22:21.880 They cheat.

00:22:22.600 They steal our stuff.

00:22:23.900 They're the enemy.

00:22:24.540 They may be helping right now in the Ukraine war by giving Russia manpower.

00:22:28.820 So let me get this straight.

00:22:30.960 They have a track record of agreeing on certain terms and not following through on the terms.

00:22:37.440 And you want us to take the negotiation seriously and try to play nice with these guys?

00:22:42.000 It's not like you're dealing with somebody.

00:22:44.060 When you deal with somebody, you do business, you'll have a phone call.

00:22:47.400 You guys have been in the entertainment business for a while.

00:22:49.480 You know who to call.

00:22:51.080 Whatever they say, it's going to get done.

00:22:52.840 And I guarantee you, both of you guys have a name, that no matter what they say, you better verify it 17 times because you know nothing that person ever said was real.

00:23:00.000 I just don't know that tariffs is the right punch to throw to knock them out.

00:23:03.660 What's the alternative, though?

00:23:04.860 What's the alternative?

00:23:05.620 That's the discussion to have.

00:23:06.900 So I can give you an alternative.

00:23:08.380 Let's hear it.

00:23:09.920 Open up our markets.

00:23:11.640 Trump loves to drill for oil.

00:23:13.460 But if we became a global major exporter of oil, I mean...

00:23:17.340 That's a term, though.

00:23:18.100 You have a...

00:23:18.480 It's only a period.

00:23:19.260 So China goes to number one, Patrick. 0.89

00:23:21.100 Let's say they take over the United States in two, three, five years, whatever. 0.98

00:23:24.800 Yeah.

00:23:25.260 Do it by per capita now.

00:23:27.080 They have five times our population.

00:23:31.760 But they also don't care about how terrible they have.

00:23:34.180 No, but they...

00:23:34.820 They don't care about that here.

00:23:36.140 From a third world country to a developed nation.

00:23:38.880 They're not wired like you.

00:23:39.900 They're not wired like us.

00:23:40.680 And my point is, we get hung up.

00:23:42.820 Are we first or second?

00:23:44.460 Are we the biggest military or the second biggest military?

00:23:47.220 My point is, we're the most powerful country.

00:23:49.380 It doesn't matter if China has a bigger GDP than the United States.

00:23:52.120 We'll still be a heck of a lot more powerful than they will.

00:23:56.240 They would love to have what we have.

00:23:58.020 Based on what, though?

00:23:58.760 Based on what?

00:23:59.600 Our buying power.

00:24:00.760 We have a consumer that is the strongest consumer on the planet.

00:24:03.320 Our economy is the strongest economy on the planet.

00:24:05.180 And let me ask you a question.

00:24:07.020 Per capita GDP.

00:24:08.300 If this continues, if this continues, who's a slave to who?

00:24:12.900 They can't.

00:24:13.600 We can never be a slave to them. 1.00

00:24:15.360 We buy their shit. 1.00

00:24:17.360 We sell them stuff. 1.00

00:24:18.900 We pay them.

00:24:19.940 They can't stop.

00:24:20.620 What happened?

00:24:21.120 And they have a lot of our debt.

00:24:23.400 If they put us into a depression and we default on the trillions of dollars of our debt that

00:24:28.760 they hold, they don't want to do that either.

00:24:30.140 Yeah, but what's the...

00:24:31.420 Okay, so here's...

00:24:32.900 The more I'm listening to what we're saying, the more I'm processing it as

00:24:38.120 let's find a way to make it good now.

00:24:40.600 Yes.

00:24:41.200 Okay.

00:24:41.860 It's kind of like...

00:24:42.840 Although I don't believe anybody is going to run away from something that's working.

00:24:46.200 You know, the Democrats criticized Trump's tariffs on China in the first term.

00:24:50.220 Biden left them in.

00:24:51.280 People don't run away from success.

00:24:52.840 No, what I'm saying to you is if we have a chance to have this tough conversation now,

00:24:57.680 I have a feeling if we don't do it now, this may be the last chance ever to have it.

00:25:03.640 And why?

00:25:04.100 Let me explain why.

00:25:05.080 Here's what I mean by why.

00:25:06.840 When's the last time we had a guy like Trump as a president?

00:25:10.200 Never.

00:25:10.740 Four years ago.

00:25:12.360 Exactly.

00:25:13.240 Exactly.

00:25:14.020 Meaning himself.

00:25:14.960 That's what he's saying.

00:25:15.860 So when's the last...

00:25:16.780 Was Reagan like a Trump?

00:25:18.740 No.

00:25:18.900 Was Reagan more willing...

00:25:21.220 If you read the Jim Baker book, you know, and you read about Reagan, Reagan was actually

00:25:24.880 willing to compromise, right?

00:25:26.560 So Reagan had a different approach that he would still work with the establishment a

00:25:30.760 little bit and kind of, you know, be able to make that stuff work.

00:25:33.180 To me, if there is a wild card in this equation of a guy that can...

00:25:39.520 Like, I was talking to a couple NBA guys the other day with Scottie Pippen, and we're

00:25:43.860 talking about a guy named Zion Williamson, okay, who was...

00:25:46.380 Fat is what Zion is. 0.89

00:25:47.860 Exactly.

00:25:48.600 But you know what I said?

00:25:49.580 I said, let me ask you a question.

00:25:51.580 Earlier when I asked him about the whole challenge with Miami, he says, everybody leaves

00:25:54.880 Miami.

00:25:55.360 Why is that?

00:25:56.340 He says, because of Pat Riley.

00:25:57.640 Really, why?

00:25:58.600 Because Pat is known for that.

00:25:59.780 He has a reputation.

00:26:00.660 He drives people too hard.

00:26:02.160 I said, great.

00:26:02.860 30 minutes later, I say, let me ask you a question.

00:26:05.280 Zion Williamson, if there's a coach or somebody in the NBA that could change him, who would

00:26:08.580 it be?

00:26:08.880 He said, Pat Riley.

00:26:09.680 I said, wait a minute, you can't say this.

00:26:11.760 He says, I can.

00:26:13.320 I said, what are you doing here?

00:26:15.500 But the point is what?

00:26:16.380 It takes an effing Pat Riley to change certain things.

00:26:19.940 And I think the chances of getting another Trump in 4, 8, 12, 6, I don't know if we're

00:26:25.560 going to see another guy like that.

00:26:26.000 I don't know that you need it.

00:26:27.020 There's a plus minus on how he is.

00:26:29.100 Aggression is good. 1.00

00:26:30.400 Trump is aggressive.

00:26:31.560 He is assertive.

00:26:32.600 He sees everything as a nail and he's a hammer.

00:26:34.840 Okay.

00:26:35.500 But it's still about how good the strategy is and what the mechanism is for change.

00:26:40.600 Too early to tell.

00:26:41.040 Our biggest advantage over China is our alliances.

00:26:44.960 Okay.

00:26:45.280 And that's why people were worried about the soft power.

00:26:48.180 That's why people were worried about how you talk to your allies.

00:26:50.820 When you see the EU saying, we're going to take, not just Spain, right?

00:26:55.400 We're going to take meetings with China.

00:26:57.100 That's a middle finger to us.

00:26:58.760 And the reason they're giving a middle finger to us, because they want to give it to Trump

00:27:01.720 because of how he talks about them.

00:27:03.120 Now you can say, yeah, but he's strong.

00:27:05.100 You need your friends to beat China, not just because of the number of human beings, 0.98

00:27:10.460 but because of the concentration of power.

00:27:13.660 That's the criticism is the way you're going about this is not going to get it done.

00:27:18.420 But what you want to get done is the right thing to go after.

00:27:22.540 Tom, do you have final thoughts?

00:27:24.280 Yeah.

00:27:24.500 I don't know, Chris, about that point on the EU.

00:27:28.000 I mean, the EU paraded Ursula von der Leyen, who's president of the EU Commission,

00:27:32.400 the Economic Commission, right?

00:27:33.600 And they paraded her out for the last week.

00:27:35.960 And she said, well, EU likes a good deal, would like a good deal, number one.

00:27:42.520 Number two, she was saying things about, hey, we want to come negotiate this.

00:27:47.920 We believe more in moderation.

00:27:49.740 Because they sent her out with the moderation message so that they can take these populist messages, 0.98

00:27:56.240 except Italy, forward to their media about, oh, you know, we're not going to be bullied by Trump.

00:28:02.660 We're not going to be like this and everything.

00:28:04.500 Meanwhile, they're coming out being very open about it.

00:28:07.540 Being open about what?

00:28:08.600 I don't understand your point.

00:28:10.060 No, she's talking about we want to come negotiate this, this, and this.

00:28:14.640 Right.

00:28:15.040 Right.

00:28:15.360 And so they send out Ursula von der Leyen to make those statements.

00:28:18.900 Meanwhile, you know, Macron says, oh, I don't know about this. 0.97

00:28:21.420 This guy is such a bully. 0.95

00:28:23.460 You see the difference? 0.96

00:28:24.280 Yeah, but I'm saying they say they're going to meet with China.

00:28:26.480 They shouldn't be saying that.

00:28:28.760 They are our friend, not China's friend. 0.99

00:28:31.600 And what's happening right now is a realignment because people are pissed at Trump.

00:28:35.640 And that's not necessarily good.

00:28:37.300 Look deeper into it, right?

00:28:39.320 Huge.

00:28:40.300 Auto industry is big in Europe, okay?

00:28:43.000 Yes.

00:28:43.420 So what's happening?

00:28:44.920 Why is Renault-Nissan, like, going to EU Commission and saying we need to investigate what's going on in Hungary with BYD?

00:28:52.880 They're building a factory there.

00:28:54.640 They're going to ship the cars over here.

00:28:56.180 They're subsidizing it, and they're going to screw all of us on the equivalent of, you know, cost dumping because they're going to subsidize the whole thing.

00:29:04.180 And so I don't see a lot of love there for all of what's going on in the auto industry in Europe.

00:29:08.900 And that's one of the things Ursula von der Leyen was talking about. 0.97

00:29:11.680 And I'm no fan of her.

00:29:12.780 But my point was I'm sitting there watching her versus watching prime ministers and things and presidents and saying, you know, as much as they're pissed at Trump, they're scared to death of what China is doing.

00:29:23.960 And so they're not running over there with open arms.

00:29:26.820 I was on record in the beginning, Chris.

00:29:28.580 I said, look, these tariffs are going to be tactics, not taxes.

00:29:31.580 And I said that many, many times, and people clicked on it and said, I think you're crazy.

00:29:36.900 I don't think I'm crazy.

00:29:37.960 I think that's what's happening now.

00:29:39.380 But if you look at the tariff like a medication, you're saying that's the wrong medication to be giving the patient.

00:29:46.240 Okay, you can certainly say that.

00:29:48.100 But you've got to do it.

00:29:49.160 You still have to cure the patient now.

00:29:51.360 And I believe these are tactics, not taxes.

00:29:54.240 Do I think that the calculation was like a wrong way to do it and opened your flanked ups to all kinds of criticism?

00:30:00.400 Yes.

00:30:01.440 But is it still the right thing to do to kind of, you know, hey, this is Holy Week, to flip over the tables and say we're going to change this?

00:30:09.200 Yes.

00:30:10.840 Maybe.

00:30:12.200 I think it's too early.

00:30:13.580 Like you said, but by the way, guys, this isn't my wheelhouse.

00:30:15.760 Just as an average American looking out, I think it's way too early.

00:30:19.520 China, I don't care. 1.00

00:30:20.420 Listen, we're at war with China.

00:30:21.920 We're not shooting guns.

00:30:22.980 We're not dropping bombs.

00:30:23.960 We're 100% at war with them.

00:30:26.420 And by the way, they've gone away for the past four years of what?

00:30:28.640 Like, spying, flying, spy balloons for what?

00:30:31.960 Nobody gave a damn.

00:30:33.300 They bought land by all of our military bases.

00:30:35.860 Now it's from Air Force Base.

00:30:37.340 Nobody's saying anything.

00:30:38.340 You need something drastic.

00:30:39.800 I think it's a little bit early.

00:30:41.500 Let them cook. 0.95

00:30:42.340 Let them do his thing.

00:30:43.340 And then at what point, here's my question.

00:30:44.700 At what point do we go, okay, did it work?

00:30:48.500 And we have to shift gears.

00:30:49.520 What?

00:30:49.880 At what point?

00:30:50.620 Because we're saying two years.

00:30:51.700 No, I don't think it's two years.

00:30:52.860 I think it's like, and by the way, if some people are saying as early as this summer,

00:30:58.840 if the market by summer is choppy, this is not going to be pretty.

00:31:03.160 Some are saying midterms.

00:31:04.920 Midterms, if it goes like this, I know it's too late.

00:31:07.280 It'll get wiped out.

00:31:08.040 It'll get wiped out.

00:31:08.780 So it could be summer is the latest.

00:31:12.240 Some are some.

00:31:12.640 But again, this is the part about how things work in negotiation.

00:31:17.040 If you read Trump's book of Art of the Deal, the amount of times he was willing to go past

00:31:23.840 the level of pain that the average negotiator couldn't handle, that's a skill set.

00:31:30.160 I don't know if he's going to practice that here because in that sense, the pain is you.

00:31:36.500 Us.

00:31:37.020 No, no, him, Trump, because it's your deal.

00:31:39.640 But in this sense, the pain is who?

00:31:41.720 The people.

00:31:42.460 So I don't know how he's going to manage that pain because maybe he can handle pain for himself

00:31:46.360 and his employees, but maybe the pain when he sees around his people, what they're going

00:31:49.500 to be saying, maybe it's going to be different.

00:31:50.640 I don't think anyone saw a $10 trillion meltdown in the equity markets.

00:31:57.540 I mean, the day before they announced, we knew the announcement was coming on April 2nd.

00:32:02.100 We knew it was coming.

00:32:02.880 April 1st, the market was up, flat top a little bit.

00:32:07.100 A $10 trillion, $1,600 on a Friday, $2,600 on the Monday, $1,500 the next day, up a thousand.

00:32:16.360 When that happened, Trump's smart.

00:32:18.660 He said, wait a minute, maybe this isn't the right.

00:32:22.260 We thought it sounded great, and I agree with you that it should have been, let's use this

00:32:27.360 to lower all tariffs, but they didn't realize how much the market anticipated the downdraft.

00:32:33.380 But why do your guys feel that way in the markets?

00:32:36.280 Okay, like I've done a really weird thing on my show since this happened.

00:32:39.620 I have pros on the show.

00:32:40.960 It's a global recession, that's why.

00:32:42.820 So guys who are, like you, like you guys, I'm having them come on my show now, not polished

00:32:48.360 TV people to talk economics.

00:32:50.320 These are guys, they're real institutional traders.

00:32:53.040 They're real economics working as analysts for big places.

00:32:55.700 And they're saying, look, they needed to message this first.

00:33:01.020 You had to tell us what your plan was, why you were doing it this way, and you had to

00:33:05.340 hold to it because we're afraid with Trump of uncertainty or what, you know, we call chaos

00:33:10.580 in the punditry business.

00:33:11.980 And they didn't do that, and I think they didn't do it because he didn't have a plan.

00:33:15.880 He had what Tom is talking about, which is a basic feel and a tactic to get it in.

00:33:21.940 And now let's see what happens.

00:33:23.620 And the markets don't like that.

00:33:25.840 And the problem is, he's not she.

00:33:28.260 He can't look at the people who don't like what he's doing and saying, but you're going 0.99

00:33:31.380 to stay quiet because I'll kill you. 0.98

00:33:33.280 Trump can't do that. 0.95

00:33:34.260 No, he's got to be responsive to the criticism.

00:33:36.480 And the problem is when he's responsive to the criticism, it makes it even worse because

00:33:41.200 now it's feeding the sense of uncertainty.

00:33:43.140 Well, what's he going to change next?

00:33:44.760 Well, which is this going to happen?

00:33:45.980 Are these going to happen or not?

00:33:46.920 How do I plan?

00:33:48.100 Where do I put my money?

00:33:49.520 That's what you're seeing happen.

00:33:50.620 A lot of you have been asking about the Cigar Lounge that you want to come to it.

00:33:54.040 And we've been having back to back to back.

00:33:56.040 This last Friday was the biggest event we ever had at the Cigar Lounge, which was fantastic.

00:34:01.160 However, grand opening is this Thursday night.

00:34:03.680 This Thursday night.

00:34:04.840 And this is what we're doing.

00:34:05.960 Thursday, we're not doing a podcast in a morning.

00:34:08.740 Thursday, we're doing a live podcast at our comedy club at Cigar Lounge, $59.90 live.

00:34:14.300 Tickets are being sold.

00:34:15.160 It'll be myself, Vinny, Tom, and Adam.

00:34:17.700 Live audience.

00:34:18.880 Come on down. 0.94

00:34:19.740 Bar opens at 6.

00:34:20.760 If you get there at 6 p.m., you buy tickets.

00:34:23.560 No matter whether you buy the regular ticket, the general, the premium, or VIP, if you get

00:34:28.160 the ticket and you're there early, we're going to give private tours of the Cigar Lounge and

00:34:31.640 then bring you back in the room.

00:34:33.060 And the podcast will start at 7 p.m.

00:34:35.020 It's going to be a skeptic.

00:34:35.920 I mean, it's going to be, if you've been to it before, it's a spectacle.

00:34:38.880 It's incredible.

00:34:39.680 The energy, the vibe, the announcements, different things that we do on a lot of people networking

00:34:43.300 together.

00:34:43.820 But that's the QR code.

00:34:45.860 The website, Rob, if we can give them the website so some of the folks on Spotify can

00:34:49.140 go to it as well.

00:34:50.380 I believe it's boardroomcigarlounge.com.

00:34:55.200 Boardroomcigarlounge.com.

00:34:56.420 Go a little bit lower so it gives the details.

00:34:58.980 You'll get the tickets.

00:34:59.940 So go lower, Rob, lower, lower for the tickets.

00:35:01.780 There's general premium VIP, $100, $250, $500.

00:35:05.260 VIP, you get a chance to actually go afterwards to the Cigar Lounge and we'll be with you guys.

00:35:09.340 And we're doing it Thursday instead of Friday because Friday is Good Friday.

00:35:11.980 So Thursday, we'll celebrate it together.

00:35:13.920 Come on down, bring a friend, network, join the rest of us.

00:35:17.540 We'll have a good time.

00:35:18.200 If you've been to it before, typically the people that have been to it before, they know

00:35:21.680 VIP sell out immediately.

00:35:23.160 This year, we have fewer VIPs because platinum members get first on those seats.

00:35:28.620 So if you want to have a VIP seat, hurry up and place your order and we'll see you guys

00:35:31.780 Thursday night.

00:35:32.400 If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this, click here.

00:35:35.100 And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.

Valuetainment - April 16, 2025

“Howard Lutnick Is The Problem” – Eric Bolling BLASTS Trump’s Tariff Plan As Anti-Free Market

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