Valuetainment - “Iran BROKE The Ceasefire” - Two Ships SEIZED at Strait of Hormuz By Iran

00:00:00.000 This morning at 425, Iran's attack at around the Strait of Hormuz, three ships, two of them they seized.

00:00:08.360 One is a Panamanian ship.

00:00:09.640 One is a ship from Greece that we have different names for them as well.

00:00:14.920 Rob, you can pull it up.

00:00:15.780 Yeah, those are the ships.

00:00:17.620 So while this happened, you know, this morning, if you look at the market oil prices, if you want to go to it, it's up a little bit.

00:00:24.240 It's 9137.

00:00:26.720 There's not been a negative reaction to this yet.

00:00:29.380 The president came out yesterday, and I believe he said that indefinitely, the cease, what do you call it, the ceasefire continues indefinitely, but not a date.

00:00:40.060 And so we don't know when it's going to stop.

00:00:41.860 We don't know when it, is this it, Rob?

00:00:43.100 Yes, sir.

00:00:43.480 Okay, go for it.

00:00:44.180 Play this clip, and then we'll get right into it. 0.84

00:00:45.760 To be clear, you're saying that you need at least a prospect for a signed deal today and tomorrow, or else you would resume bombing Iran. 0.99

00:00:59.380 Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that's a better attitude to go in with. 1.00

00:01:05.380 But we're ready to go.

00:01:07.380 I mean, the military is raring to go.

00:01:09.380 They are absolutely incredible.

00:01:10.380 You know, I built the military in my first term.

00:01:12.380 I'm using it now.

00:01:13.380 The military, when I took it over from Barack Hussein Obama, they had just, it was so depleted,

00:01:19.380 so sad.

00:01:20.380 And I built it in my first term.

00:01:22.380 You remember those big numbers.

00:01:23.380 You talked to me about it once.

00:01:24.380 That's a lot of money for the military.

00:01:26.380 I built it.

00:01:27.380 a great job with our military and uh we're using it now and rebuilding it too we know it's

00:01:34.500 indefinitely sean hannity said based on some intel i think rob if you got that clip that at

00:01:40.840 any point you know attack could happen go for it rob and welcome to hannity tonight we start with

00:01:49.180 this fox news alert now new reporting tonight sources telling me that the ceasefire extension

00:01:54.460 in Iran announced by the president that will be short-lived unless a deal is reached quickly.

00:02:00.180 Now, earlier today, the president announced that American strikes will not yet resume and he will

00:02:05.840 allow peace negotiations to continue. According to my sources, mostly this was out of respect for

00:02:11.120 the Pakistani mediators and as a final push for peace for the war-torn Iranian people. The

00:02:17.500 president is also giving more time to Iran's regime to attempt to coordinate and actually

00:02:23.640 We communicate with each. Tom, what do you think is going on here?

00:02:26.700 So what I think is going on is the president is doing what he always does.

00:02:32.080 Well, maybe I will. Maybe I won't. This is what I think. Maybe I won't.

00:02:36.100 I think this is literally a day by day ceasefire. He's trying to keep them unbalanced.

00:02:43.440 And unfortunately, they said that Vance was pulled back. I guess he's not going to the next.

00:02:48.020 uh um the previous public um just what did they say that previously they had made a public

00:02:56.220 statement about what the next negotiation would be so that's the one where we can see them all

00:03:00.480 at the table and we see the media talking about it but there's things going on behind closed doors

00:03:05.020 i think trump's trying to keep them off balance i think he's trying to get a deal done i think

00:03:09.520 whitkoff is working in the background and but the public you know everybody sits at the big

00:03:14.860 beautiful table and everything uh that's not happening uh uh tomorrow thursday and vance

00:03:21.460 was pulled back there you go david your thoughts well the question is uh who are the americans

00:03:30.060 talking to look who's the iranian delegation and who's in charge uh in iran right now because my

00:03:37.780 sense is that it's not the clerics it's the IRGC and they are definitely hardened so you know my

00:03:46.860 thoughts for this I think the bombing campaign is over the I think that Trump pays attention

00:03:54.660 to the stock market and I think he's paying attention to the public opinion polls and I

00:04:01.680 he has to take uh note of the fact that his mega base is starting to uh deteriorate in terms of

00:04:09.920 the support for the war so i think he's looking for an off-ramp and i think that we're just

00:04:16.480 further in this age of disinformation it's not just the iranians but it's also you know what

00:04:22.320 we're hearing out of truth social i mean we were bombarded with no fewer than seven messages from

00:04:29.040 his uh social media account last friday uh and next thing you know the dad was up a thousand

00:04:33.920 points it's hard to know where this leads i think that i agree that um i think trump is looking for

00:04:40.720 an off-ramp uh we don't know what sort of deal what sort of deal are we really expecting because

00:04:47.040 the iranian list of demands and the u.s list of demands there's no overlap

00:04:51.920 uh and uh you know as i go through this in my head uh i'm there thinking that uh trump i i don't think

00:05:01.880 he can he can bomb anymore i think it's a classic case of uh einstein's definition of insanity like

00:05:08.240 where's the bombing uh what's it going to accomplish that hasn't accomplished uh right now

00:05:13.460 what Iran has found out is that it has an economic engine that they can 0.70

00:05:23.460 stranglehold the world through the strait I think a lot of us already knew 0.94

00:05:27.080 that because it's not the first time this has happened but on this scale so

00:05:31.100 you have a situation where as you mentioned about the strikes by Iran on

00:05:37.400 those ships in the strait they're demonstrating that they're still in

00:05:40.080 control uh and and and the u.s still has this blockade but does this break the ceasefire by

00:05:47.140 them attacking those three ships i mean if you're talking ceasefire that's uh that well that that's

00:05:51.380 really up that's really up to trump right you you would think that it would uh break the ceasefire

00:05:55.840 you would think that uh hezbollah which wasn't mentioned i think just sent a few rockets into

00:06:00.540 into northern israel uh did that break the ceasefire so this is almost um uh you know

00:06:08.420 very loose definitions uh it's clear to me firstly that um trump wants an off-ramp we just don't know

00:06:15.620 who he's talking to who's in charge in iran and what any deal is going to look like because

00:06:22.040 how can we walk away from this war with the iranians still having uh those thousand pounds 0.51

00:06:31.760 of enriched uranium and how do we walk away with Iran not abandoning its nuclear ambitions I don't

00:06:42.980 really know how Donald Trump is going to wiggle his way out of this I think in the end what he 0.94

00:06:47.780 wants to do is walk away and declare victory on his terms and then the Iranians are gonna declare

00:06:54.560 victory on their terms and my biggest concern is do we just end up back where we were with 0.90

00:07:00.440 with Barack Hussein Obama and the deal that he struck in 2015.

00:07:06.360 Do we just end up right back there and that's all this damage?

00:07:10.700 Are you speculating or are you thinking I'm going to end up there?

00:07:12.880 Well, I'm always scenario building.

00:07:18.240 There's a wide range of outcomes, but you have to have a base case scenario.

00:07:24.660 You know, the thing is that Trump is under a lot of domestic political pressure.

00:07:31.280 I think he's coming under some pressure in his own party. 0.90

00:07:34.520 We have the midterm elections, all these things that Iran doesn't have to worry about. 0.76

00:07:39.100 And then we have to consider all along, you know, how we've come to this place.

00:07:44.860 And this isn't like a war over land.

00:07:49.000 This is a war over radical ideology and fanaticism.

00:07:53.660 This is a different sort of war.

00:07:56.220 You know, when we had the Cold War with Russia,

00:07:59.560 it wasn't really dealing with anybody who was irrational.

00:08:03.160 Khrushchev was not irrational.

00:08:05.380 Now, that wasn't religious ideology that you could argue.

00:08:09.480 That was more economic ideology.

00:08:12.240 But you were dealing at least with rational actors.

00:08:16.200 And this time around, you're dealing with irrational actors,

00:08:18.680 and you're dealing with a regime that has no value on human life,

00:08:24.360 even the human life of their own population, as we've seen.

00:08:29.740 So I think the template you want to look back to,

00:08:33.700 and this is what I would advise the president if I was there,

00:08:37.160 is just know what you're getting into here,

00:08:40.100 because from 1980 to 1988, Iran and Iraq fought an eight-year war.

00:08:46.600 now Saddam Hussein wanted to create a buffer you could argue that was partly

00:08:52.300 about land but it was also about ideology because it was right after the

00:08:56.440 revolution and Hussein was very concerned that this radical ideology was going to

00:09:03.240 spread into Iraq after year two of that war Saddam Hussein actually offered an

00:09:11.080 olive branch to the Ayatollah to end the war to call for a permanent truce

00:09:15.780 Iran walked away and the war lasted another six years

00:09:21.640 over 500,000 deaths um so that's what we're dealing with right now uh so there's a wide

00:09:30.700 range of outcomes uh I think that uh what's obvious to me what's obvious to me I mean this

00:09:35.940 is now uh you know what is a deadline right now what's a deadline now the deadline is over and

00:09:41.860 Now it's basically, you know, there's no timeline attached.

00:09:45.660 What does that tell us?

00:09:46.500 What's ideal for you, in your opinion?

00:09:48.520 Well, I'm, you know what, I'm pretty hardcore.

00:09:52.560 You know, I'm in the John Bolton camp, okay?

00:09:54.780 Really?

00:09:55.600 Absolutely, because I think that, you know, you've got to finish what you started.

00:10:00.400 What was the goal?

00:10:01.740 You know, the problem I have is that President Trump says,

00:10:04.340 well, we did achieve regime change.

00:10:07.140 Well, that's a lot of information right there.

00:10:08.880 Or, you know, he's going to say we actually got one of the things that we wanted,

00:10:13.540 which was regime change, but we got a worse regime.

00:10:16.640 And then he says, well, these are more regional people than we had before.

00:10:20.320 Well, you know, I don't really think so.

00:10:22.320 And then it's a matter of what people have to know is that it's the Revolution Guard

00:10:26.340 are the ones really in control.

00:10:28.280 And they're hardened.

00:10:30.260 I think that you ought to finish what you start. 0.98

00:10:33.780 And I think that the ultimate goal was really to get that 60% enriched uranium out of Iranian hands 0.90

00:10:45.480 and to permanently end their nuclear ambitions. 0.63

00:10:49.980 Now, the reality is that you actually would need to have a new and more peaceful regime to do that.

00:10:58.320 I think that's next to impossible.

00:11:01.100 The question is, because when you think about what the spark was,

00:11:04.540 the spark was the uprisings that we saw, the popular uprisings back in January.

00:11:10.200 And how do you incentivize? 1.00

00:11:12.220 I mean, you could actually argue that the Iranians were prepared 0.97

00:11:15.680 because they killed, let's say, the number is 30,000. 0.97

00:11:18.000 Now the Iranian population is scared to go out and do it again.

00:11:24.540 And that to me is really, when you're talking about regime change, 1.00

00:11:29.000 I think that always should have been the goal, because when you think about how do we end this nuclear ambition, 0.98

00:11:36.320 I think that a nuclear bomb in Iranian hands is a danger for the entire world. 0.99

00:11:40.880 How do you accomplish that? 0.99

00:11:42.400 And then you look at history.

00:11:44.260 How do you change regimes?

00:11:46.280 You don't do it from the outside.

00:11:48.420 You do it from the inside.

00:11:50.080 And what you need to do is you need to get to a place where the army, the regular army,

00:11:56.140 I'm not even talking about the IRGC.

00:11:58.380 I'm talking about the regular army.

00:11:59.940 There's a million of them.

00:12:01.540 Now, I don't know.

00:12:02.140 I'd like to hear, what I'd like to hear is that that's who Wyckoff and Jared Kushner and Vance are talking to.

00:12:13.320 Are their back channels into the actual regular Iranian army?

00:12:19.180 Because when you look at previous revolutions, King Louis XVI,

00:12:24.720 The revolution was successful only when the army turned their back on the king.

00:12:29.880 That hasn't happened yet.

00:12:30.680 No.

00:12:31.020 When you look at Nicholas II, okay, it's only when the army realized that their survival was at stake, that they abandoned the Tsar.

00:12:38.620 How do you get there?

00:12:39.640 How do you get there?

00:12:41.300 Well, I sort of— 0.99

00:12:43.320 Because you gave the weapons to Kurds. 1.00

00:12:45.120 They kept it. 0.93

00:12:45.780 So it's not like they're passing it to the people.

00:12:47.760 I like that.

00:12:48.280 I like that idea, but Turkey shot it down.

00:12:51.820 And, you know, I mean, there's always risks about having a revolution, like, and you'll create this political vacuum, and let's face it, Iran is not a homogeneous society.

00:13:02.700 But the thing is that, how do you incentivize the people and the army to turn against the clerics?

00:13:14.060 and to me you know that that's why look the the whole notion of bombing power plants and bridges

00:13:21.980 or even you know using the strait the blockade to block food imports and medical supplies and

00:13:30.680 then there's all sorts of uh commotion and noise around well the us be breaking international law

00:13:36.940 we'll never mind about all the international laws that the iranians have broken but you see

00:13:41.420 There's just more political pressure on Trump.

00:13:44.240 But, you know, the thing is that, and this is going to sound pretty radical,

00:13:48.720 and I don't want to sound mean.

00:13:50.840 I'm not a mean person.

00:13:52.060 But the question is, how do you incentivize the Iranian people into another uprising,

00:13:58.780 which they did in January, but now they have fear because they know that the Guard are going to kill them. 0.97

00:14:03.500 I always thought the Kurds were at least a good start. 0.94

00:14:07.020 It would be actually a very good distraction to the to the Revolutionary Guard. 0.99

00:14:12.180 Yeah. You know, can Mossad or the IDF get involved?

00:14:18.980 I don't know. They're under a short leash.

00:14:20.380 They're all sure. But they're also under, you know, they're under, you know, Trump's control as well.

00:14:26.660 To me, that would be the most effective endgame.

00:14:31.340 How it's accomplished. Look, I'm not a I can't I don't claim to be a military expert.

00:14:35.880 I'm an interested observer.

00:14:38.500 But I would say that without regime change, nothing's going to change.

00:14:45.680 And then it's a matter of how you accomplish it.

00:14:48.140 Would you accomplish it through, say, real boots on the ground?

00:14:51.520 Like you'd need like, you'd probably need like a million troops.

00:14:55.500 Brandon, what do you think?

00:14:56.120 It would be interesting.

00:14:56.780 What do you think yourself?

00:14:57.700 I mean, I agree. 0.95

00:14:58.680 And that's why I said a week or two ago, I said that I think they should use an Iran-Contra model. 0.65

00:15:03.140 I mean, any revolution that's ever happened, it's been through rebel groups, through militia groups that the CIA or Mossad type of group helps organize and helps them get together and helps smuggle weapons to them.

00:15:14.000 But that doesn't exist in Iran.

00:15:15.520 There's no organized militia or rebel group.

00:15:17.840 And that's really how an uprising could actually happen.

00:15:19.860 Like, you know, right now it's just a bunch of people without weapons that get slaughtered by the government when they organize in public.

00:15:25.080 So I agree.

00:15:26.080 There really is no off ramp with this in terms of changing leadership in an effective way.

00:15:30.340 No matter what, even if you take out the guy who's in charge right now, somebody just like him from the IRGC is going to be put in his place.

00:15:36.640 And until that whole mindset or that whole IRGC regime is gone, then it's the same situation, probably even worse. 0.53

00:15:43.540 So even if we do agree to a deal, there's not an offer that exists with the same group. 0.61

00:15:48.660 And I just looked it up, actually.

00:15:50.220 31% of the military is part of the IRGC, but the IRGC does control all the military weapons.

00:15:55.180 So that's what that looks like in that regard.

00:15:56.860 But, yeah, it's a bad situation because I don't see what that option is

00:16:01.760 to, like, totally eliminate it because it's not like they're in one place.

00:16:05.100 It's not like it's one group of people, like a small group of people.

00:16:07.160 But saying you're extending the ceasefire indefinitely

00:16:11.720 and then these guys break the ceasefire.

00:16:14.940 Immediately.

00:16:15.100 And they're saying we did not.

00:16:16.800 They're saying we're enforcing the law because they're acting as if they created new laws.

00:16:21.940 So because of that, they're enforcing new laws.

00:16:24.000 So we didn't do anything wrong.

00:16:25.200 We're just kind of doing our part.

00:16:26.480 You know, it's a this is not breaking a ceasefire. But in a way, Iran is trying to say is, look, we're they're not showing the real players, not real players.

00:16:35.560 They're not showing their ethical players here. So if that's the case, what do you do?

00:16:39.960 So if his position is, well, Trump wants to get out of this because he's paying attention to the market.

00:16:46.000 Market's doing better. Everything is up. You know, earnings are coming through really good.

00:16:49.680 Numbers are coming through really good. People are pretty optimistic.

00:16:52.120 The market, I don't know where S&P is today, was at 7,000.

00:16:55.960 And hey, so, but that's a different story between Main Street and Wall Street.

00:17:00.520 S&P's at 71.49 right now, up almost three quarters of a point.

00:17:05.200 So, but if he goes back in a tax, if he goes back, let's just say we hear the news.

00:17:09.740 Boom, we're bombing again.

00:17:10.800 What happens to the market?

00:17:12.700 Two to three percent adjustment?

00:17:14.500 Yeah, it goes back the other way.

00:17:15.560 S&P goes back down to 69.

00:17:17.580 Yeah.

00:17:17.780 But if he's going to do it, Iran's telling you we're not ethical negotiators.

00:17:24.420 This guy who was Obama's or Clinton's, Clinton's guy in 1996, he says Iran's never been an honest negotiator.

00:17:34.460 They always lie.

00:17:35.700 So what are you going to do now?

00:17:37.240 You're dealing with somebody that's ethical now?

00:17:38.780 Who knows?

Valuetainment - April 22, 2026

“Iran BROKE The Ceasefire” - Two Ships SEIZED at Strait of Hormuz By Iran

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