āIran BROKE The Ceasefireā - Two Ships SEIZED at Strait of Hormuz By Iran
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Summary
The latest on the latest in the Iran crisis, including Iran's attack on the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of renewed strikes, and the lack of a deal between the United States and Iran on a diplomatic solution.
Transcript
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This morning at 425, Iran's attack at around the Strait of Hormuz, three ships, two of them they seized.
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One is a ship from Greece that we have different names for them as well.
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So while this happened, you know, this morning, if you look at the market oil prices, if you want to go to it, it's up a little bit.
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There's not been a negative reaction to this yet.
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The president came out yesterday, and I believe he said that indefinitely, the cease, what do you call it, the ceasefire continues indefinitely, but not a date.
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Play this clip, and then we'll get right into it.
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To be clear, you're saying that you need at least a prospect for a signed deal today and tomorrow, or else you would resume bombing Iran.
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Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that's a better attitude to go in with.
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You know, I built the military in my first term.
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The military, when I took it over from Barack Hussein Obama, they had just, it was so depleted,
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a great job with our military and uh we're using it now and rebuilding it too we know it's
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indefinitely sean hannity said based on some intel i think rob if you got that clip that at
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any point you know attack could happen go for it rob and welcome to hannity tonight we start with
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this fox news alert now new reporting tonight sources telling me that the ceasefire extension
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in Iran announced by the president that will be short-lived unless a deal is reached quickly.
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Now, earlier today, the president announced that American strikes will not yet resume and he will
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allow peace negotiations to continue. According to my sources, mostly this was out of respect for
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the Pakistani mediators and as a final push for peace for the war-torn Iranian people. The
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president is also giving more time to Iran's regime to attempt to coordinate and actually
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We communicate with each. Tom, what do you think is going on here?
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So what I think is going on is the president is doing what he always does.
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Well, maybe I will. Maybe I won't. This is what I think. Maybe I won't.
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I think this is literally a day by day ceasefire. He's trying to keep them unbalanced.
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And unfortunately, they said that Vance was pulled back. I guess he's not going to the next.
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uh um the previous public um just what did they say that previously they had made a public
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statement about what the next negotiation would be so that's the one where we can see them all
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at the table and we see the media talking about it but there's things going on behind closed doors
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i think trump's trying to keep them off balance i think he's trying to get a deal done i think
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whitkoff is working in the background and but the public you know everybody sits at the big
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beautiful table and everything uh that's not happening uh uh tomorrow thursday and vance
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was pulled back there you go david your thoughts well the question is uh who are the americans
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talking to look who's the iranian delegation and who's in charge uh in iran right now because my
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sense is that it's not the clerics it's the IRGC and they are definitely hardened so you know my
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thoughts for this I think the bombing campaign is over the I think that Trump pays attention
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to the stock market and I think he's paying attention to the public opinion polls and I
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he has to take uh note of the fact that his mega base is starting to uh deteriorate in terms of
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the support for the war so i think he's looking for an off-ramp and i think that we're just
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further in this age of disinformation it's not just the iranians but it's also you know what
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we're hearing out of truth social i mean we were bombarded with no fewer than seven messages from
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his uh social media account last friday uh and next thing you know the dad was up a thousand
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points it's hard to know where this leads i think that i agree that um i think trump is looking for
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an off-ramp uh we don't know what sort of deal what sort of deal are we really expecting because
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the iranian list of demands and the u.s list of demands there's no overlap
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uh and uh you know as i go through this in my head uh i'm there thinking that uh trump i i don't think
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he can he can bomb anymore i think it's a classic case of uh einstein's definition of insanity like
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where's the bombing uh what's it going to accomplish that hasn't accomplished uh right now
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what Iran has found out is that it has an economic engine that they can
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stranglehold the world through the strait I think a lot of us already knew
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that because it's not the first time this has happened but on this scale so
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you have a situation where as you mentioned about the strikes by Iran on
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those ships in the strait they're demonstrating that they're still in
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control uh and and and the u.s still has this blockade but does this break the ceasefire by
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them attacking those three ships i mean if you're talking ceasefire that's uh that well that that's
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really up that's really up to trump right you you would think that it would uh break the ceasefire
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you would think that uh hezbollah which wasn't mentioned i think just sent a few rockets into
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into northern israel uh did that break the ceasefire so this is almost um uh you know
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very loose definitions uh it's clear to me firstly that um trump wants an off-ramp we just don't know
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who he's talking to who's in charge in iran and what any deal is going to look like because
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how can we walk away from this war with the iranians still having uh those thousand pounds
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of enriched uranium and how do we walk away with Iran not abandoning its nuclear ambitions I don't
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really know how Donald Trump is going to wiggle his way out of this I think in the end what he
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wants to do is walk away and declare victory on his terms and then the Iranians are gonna declare
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victory on their terms and my biggest concern is do we just end up back where we were with
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with Barack Hussein Obama and the deal that he struck in 2015.
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Do we just end up right back there and that's all this damage?
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Are you speculating or are you thinking I'm going to end up there?
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There's a wide range of outcomes, but you have to have a base case scenario.
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You know, the thing is that Trump is under a lot of domestic political pressure.
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I think he's coming under some pressure in his own party.
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We have the midterm elections, all these things that Iran doesn't have to worry about.
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And then we have to consider all along, you know, how we've come to this place.
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This is a war over radical ideology and fanaticism.
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You know, when we had the Cold War with Russia,
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it wasn't really dealing with anybody who was irrational.
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Now, that wasn't religious ideology that you could argue.
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But you were dealing at least with rational actors.
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And this time around, you're dealing with irrational actors,
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and you're dealing with a regime that has no value on human life,
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even the human life of their own population, as we've seen.
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So I think the template you want to look back to,
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and this is what I would advise the president if I was there,
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because from 1980 to 1988, Iran and Iraq fought an eight-year war.
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now Saddam Hussein wanted to create a buffer you could argue that was partly
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about land but it was also about ideology because it was right after the
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revolution and Hussein was very concerned that this radical ideology was going to
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spread into Iraq after year two of that war Saddam Hussein actually offered an
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olive branch to the Ayatollah to end the war to call for a permanent truce
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Iran walked away and the war lasted another six years
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over 500,000 deaths um so that's what we're dealing with right now uh so there's a wide
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range of outcomes uh I think that uh what's obvious to me what's obvious to me I mean this
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is now uh you know what is a deadline right now what's a deadline now the deadline is over and
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Now it's basically, you know, there's no timeline attached.
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Absolutely, because I think that, you know, you've got to finish what you started.
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You know, the problem I have is that President Trump says,
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Or, you know, he's going to say we actually got one of the things that we wanted,
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which was regime change, but we got a worse regime.
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And then he says, well, these are more regional people than we had before.
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And then it's a matter of what people have to know is that it's the Revolution Guard
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I think that you ought to finish what you start.
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And I think that the ultimate goal was really to get that 60% enriched uranium out of Iranian hands
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and to permanently end their nuclear ambitions.
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Now, the reality is that you actually would need to have a new and more peaceful regime to do that.
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The question is, because when you think about what the spark was,
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the spark was the uprisings that we saw, the popular uprisings back in January.
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I mean, you could actually argue that the Iranians were prepared
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because they killed, let's say, the number is 30,000.
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Now the Iranian population is scared to go out and do it again.
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And that to me is really, when you're talking about regime change,
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I think that always should have been the goal, because when you think about how do we end this nuclear ambition,
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I think that a nuclear bomb in Iranian hands is a danger for the entire world.
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And what you need to do is you need to get to a place where the army, the regular army,
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I'd like to hear, what I'd like to hear is that that's who Wyckoff and Jared Kushner and Vance are talking to.
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Are their back channels into the actual regular Iranian army?
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Because when you look at previous revolutions, King Louis XVI,
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The revolution was successful only when the army turned their back on the king.
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When you look at Nicholas II, okay, it's only when the army realized that their survival was at stake, that they abandoned the Tsar.
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So it's not like they're passing it to the people.
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And, you know, I mean, there's always risks about having a revolution, like, and you'll create this political vacuum, and let's face it, Iran is not a homogeneous society.
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But the thing is that, how do you incentivize the people and the army to turn against the clerics?
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and to me you know that that's why look the the whole notion of bombing power plants and bridges
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or even you know using the strait the blockade to block food imports and medical supplies and
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then there's all sorts of uh commotion and noise around well the us be breaking international law
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we'll never mind about all the international laws that the iranians have broken but you see
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But, you know, the thing is that, and this is going to sound pretty radical,
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But the question is, how do you incentivize the Iranian people into another uprising,
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which they did in January, but now they have fear because they know that the Guard are going to kill them.
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I always thought the Kurds were at least a good start.
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It would be actually a very good distraction to the to the Revolutionary Guard.
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Yeah. You know, can Mossad or the IDF get involved?
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They're all sure. But they're also under, you know, they're under, you know, Trump's control as well.
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To me, that would be the most effective endgame.
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How it's accomplished. Look, I'm not a I can't I don't claim to be a military expert.
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But I would say that without regime change, nothing's going to change.
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And then it's a matter of how you accomplish it.
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Would you accomplish it through, say, real boots on the ground?
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Like you'd need like, you'd probably need like a million troops.
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And that's why I said a week or two ago, I said that I think they should use an Iran-Contra model.
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I mean, any revolution that's ever happened, it's been through rebel groups, through militia groups that the CIA or Mossad type of group helps organize and helps them get together and helps smuggle weapons to them.
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And that's really how an uprising could actually happen.
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Like, you know, right now it's just a bunch of people without weapons that get slaughtered by the government when they organize in public.
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There really is no off ramp with this in terms of changing leadership in an effective way.
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No matter what, even if you take out the guy who's in charge right now, somebody just like him from the IRGC is going to be put in his place.
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And until that whole mindset or that whole IRGC regime is gone, then it's the same situation, probably even worse.
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So even if we do agree to a deal, there's not an offer that exists with the same group.
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31% of the military is part of the IRGC, but the IRGC does control all the military weapons.
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But, yeah, it's a bad situation because I don't see what that option is
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to, like, totally eliminate it because it's not like they're in one place.
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It's not like it's one group of people, like a small group of people.
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But saying you're extending the ceasefire indefinitely
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They're saying we're enforcing the law because they're acting as if they created new laws.
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So because of that, they're enforcing new laws.
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You know, it's a this is not breaking a ceasefire. But in a way, Iran is trying to say is, look, we're they're not showing the real players, not real players.
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They're not showing their ethical players here. So if that's the case, what do you do?
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So if his position is, well, Trump wants to get out of this because he's paying attention to the market.
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Market's doing better. Everything is up. You know, earnings are coming through really good.
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Numbers are coming through really good. People are pretty optimistic.
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The market, I don't know where S&P is today, was at 7,000.
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And hey, so, but that's a different story between Main Street and Wall Street.
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S&P's at 71.49 right now, up almost three quarters of a point.
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So, but if he goes back in a tax, if he goes back, let's just say we hear the news.
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But if he's going to do it, Iran's telling you we're not ethical negotiators.
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This guy who was Obama's or Clinton's, Clinton's guy in 1996, he says Iran's never been an honest negotiator.
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You're dealing with somebody that's ethical now?