Valuetainment - April 12, 2026


“Iran Won In A Big WAY” - Israel DEFIES U.S. Ceasefire With Lebanon Strikes


Episode Stats


Length

15 minutes

Words per minute

204.68602

Word count

3,177

Sentence count

240

Harmful content

Toxicity

6

sentences flagged

Hate speech

59

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

On this episode of the show, Pat and Tom discuss the recent ceasefire between Iran and Hezbollah in Syria and Israel's response to it. They also discuss why they don't think Israel should have been more involved in the effort to bring an end to the conflict.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Netanyahu says he backs Trump ceasefire with Iran, but he says the deal excludes Lebanon.
00:00:04.520 Why would he say that, Tom? 0.60
00:00:06.100 Because he's working on creating a buffer zone in Lebanon similar to what they created in Gaza. 0.78
00:00:11.820 I mean, let's just objectively look at the attacks. 0.93
00:00:14.840 Let's look at where it is.
00:00:16.180 And that's what's going on.
00:00:17.400 And what did he have in the hills of Lebanon up there on the northern border?
00:00:21.100 He had problems.
00:00:21.780 He had a combination of independent and Hezbollah had strike areas up there.
00:00:28.940 You can check me on that. But I think what he's looking at is saying, listen, you know, Iran was funding and arming Hezbollah.
00:00:38.820 They were here in my backyard on the northern border. I'm going to go take care of this as part of taking care of Iran. 0.86
00:00:45.240 Now, you don't have to agree or disagree with Israel, Pat, but that's what they said. 1.00
00:00:49.920 And so they're saying, I'm not done with these guys over here, Hezbollah. 1.00
00:00:53.660 I regard them as my problem across from my border. 1.00
00:00:57.500 They're in Lebanon. 1.00
00:00:59.180 Tough. 1.00
00:00:59.900 I'm going to finish this.
00:01:01.420 And I think that's what Israel is saying.
00:01:03.180 Whether you agree or disagree, they are creating a buffer.
00:01:06.940 You know what's kind of annoying?
00:01:07.860 What's that? 1.00
00:01:08.640 I mean, wasn't this something that they cared deeply about, what was happening with Iran?
00:01:14.500 Israel.
00:01:15.060 You're talking about Israel?
00:01:15.740 Yeah.
00:01:16.180 Something they were kind of invested in terms of caring about the outcome.
00:01:18.640 You think Israel is happy about the ceasefire?
00:01:20.640 I don't, but I'm not happy about the fact that they had any attention at all on a whole different country to different conflict when we were doing something that was helpful for them.
00:01:29.360 Like, shouldn't they be allocating the resources to do everything they could to help us?
00:01:32.020 I know they were taking out some leaders with precision airstrikes and everything.
00:01:35.040 But, I mean, you shouldn't be sending out your resources to something completely different and unrelated if, you know, you have this big thing that you're supposedly invested in.
00:01:43.060 Tom, what do you think?
00:01:44.420 So what do I think?
00:01:46.140 I think that two things about Israel and this.
00:01:50.640 I thought they should have been participating, and I thought they were selective about, well, I'm going to do this, but I'm not going to do that.
00:01:56.380 I'm not going to put boots in the ground over here, but I'm going to do this over here.
00:01:59.400 Wait a minute. You were lobbying for this. You had intelligence. You had your own Mossad.
00:02:04.940 This is not a dispute, what I'm about to say.
00:02:07.040 You had multiple Mossad mini camps and infiltrators all through the arid regions of Iran that were snooping out where you had, you know, training facilities, small drone airstrips, all these things. 0.92
00:02:21.280 And you had buckets of this intelligence and you're out there and you've openly said, I want this this Iran to be put down because they were funding Hezbollah and Hamas that were causing problems for me right here. 0.88
00:02:35.440 Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with their intelligence reports, they were already there. 0.92
00:02:40.340 So why don't you step up and be part of the solution that is actually benefiting you?
00:02:45.700 And I thought they should have.
00:02:47.540 I think it's kind of selective, Pat, in my opinion, to say, well, I'm not going to do this, but I'm going to do this.
00:02:53.020 I'm not going to do that, but I am going to do that.
00:02:55.000 Oh, you ceasefire over there. Thanks for your help.
00:02:57.160 Wait a minute. Israel complicated the first two weeks of the war when they killed more people than they had told us that they were aiming at. 0.72
00:03:06.540 That's a fact. And even Trump said, well, there was a couple of guys we kind of like. 0.64
00:03:11.040 They keep killing them. And they keep killing them. Who's they? 0.94
00:03:14.860 Trump was saying that. He said, well, there was one guy we thought we liked, like even he wasn't sure.
00:03:19.520 But he said, but they killed him. Yeah. So you can't you can't.
00:03:24.220 Sorry to rant, Pat.
00:03:25.480 No, no, I'm with you.
00:03:26.160 But you think in a situation like this, Israel's sitting around saying, I'm glad the ceasefire happened?
00:03:31.640 No. 0.53
00:03:32.060 Or you think they're sitting around saying, you know, let's finish this because we could have just emboldened Iran to give a timeout for them to go back and re-strategize? 0.81
00:03:41.080 They'd like to see a lot of these neighbors gone. 0.83
00:03:43.600 Israel. 1.00
00:03:43.880 Yeah, I think they would have liked to. 0.99
00:03:45.900 I mean, frankly, I think they've been jerking us around.
00:03:48.920 I mean, I think they they roped us into this whole thing and they would have loved to see this go on for a much longer time period than it has here.
00:03:57.960 So I don't know. I look at it and I keep coming back to, you know, why are we fighting their fight in a lot of ways here?
00:04:06.700 I mean, they're big boys. They've got big guns. They've got big missiles, too.
00:04:10.700 So I don't know why they needed us to come in and start fighting their fight because they're perfectly capable of fighting.
00:04:16.420 How many military bases do we have around the Gulf?
00:04:18.920 How many military bases do we have around the Gulf, Rob?
00:04:21.360 What's the number?
00:04:23.220 At least a few dozen probably.
00:04:25.020 Yeah, the problem is the number used to be we had 780 military bases around the world.
00:04:32.380 Okay?
00:04:32.920 I don't know what the number is around Gulf.
00:04:37.000 I want to know exactly how many military bases does the U.S. have in the Gulf.
00:04:41.180 And the only reason I'm saying this, I'm looking at this because to answer your question,
00:04:44.620 For U.S. to be involved, you wonder if Israel attacks Iran and the war is one-on-one, what is Iran going to do? 0.76
00:04:54.400 Win. 0.68
00:04:55.500 Well, not Iran's going to win.
00:04:57.440 How would Iran retaliate if it's 1v1?
00:05:02.080 If it's a 1v1 war, okay, it says 8 to 10 major U.S. military bases in the Gulf region is what we have,
00:05:08.240 two in Qatar, one in Bahrain.
00:05:09.840 Bob, go a little bit lower to see how many in Kuwait, three in Kuwait, one in UAE, one in Saudi.
00:05:13.960 So you wonder, because what has Iran done so far with the war?
00:05:18.380 You attack them. 0.65
00:05:19.300 What do they attack?
00:05:20.200 Gulf states.
00:05:21.660 And then they want the Gulf states to call and say,
00:05:24.220 hey, man, now we're being impacted by it.
00:05:26.380 Can you guys stop?
00:05:27.680 So they're like, hey, you're hitting me.
00:05:32.600 Those are your best friends. 0.99
00:05:34.120 I'm hitting them because they're weaker than you, 1.00
00:05:35.860 and I'm saying, hey, hit those guys. 1.00
00:05:37.580 And then they're calling him, and they're saying, hey, Tom,
00:05:39.980 this is getting a little bit out of control, man.
00:05:42.020 I just got hit by this.
00:05:43.140 How long are you going to do this, Tom?
00:05:45.820 How long are you going to go about this?
00:05:47.500 So they know he's not going to listen to me.
00:05:49.580 They were putting pressure on MBS.
00:05:50.760 They were all calling MBS.
00:05:51.800 You understand what I'm saying? 0.92
00:05:52.900 So to me, I think this is a part where Iran figured out what buttons to press to get the call back. 0.53
00:06:01.880 And, yeah, look, here's the reality with the president.
00:06:05.900 Vinny showed me something very important this morning.
00:06:08.040 He says, look, and, you know, we've been kind of talking about this.
00:06:10.920 But he says if Trump brokers a peace deal, Trump's a taco.
00:06:17.200 OK, if he broke the peace deal, what a sissy cannot believe this. 0.56
00:06:21.880 Iran won. If he drops a bomb on him, he's a what? War criminal. 0.99
00:06:26.980 If he, you know, didn't get involved, he's weak.
00:06:31.700 So the reality of it is anybody who is critical of Trump, those that no matter what he does,
00:06:39.120 You know, he's never going to be getting the victory, period.
00:06:41.760 You know, but he knows in this situation, you know, what his outcome is and what he wants to do.
00:06:46.860 Nobody really knows how this is going to go.
00:06:48.460 I will tell you, if it goes ceasefire, and right now the 10 points that they're talking about,
00:06:52.740 who knows if these 10 points are right or not.
00:06:54.380 I'm just saying these are the 10 points that are spreading.
00:06:56.720 Number one is no further U.S. attacks on Iran.
00:06:59.240 Number two, Iran keeps control of Strait of Hormuz, which, by the way, that is a lot of power to give to.
00:07:04.520 Lots of power. 0.99
00:07:04.920 And that's why I'm saying they win.
00:07:05.960 I know.
00:07:06.840 That's a lot of power to Strait of Hormuz. 0.97
00:07:08.640 Recognition of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights. 0.89
00:07:11.480 Lift all sanctions. 0.96
00:07:13.240 End UN and IAEA resolutions against Iran. 0.91
00:07:15.840 Realize frozen Iranian assets.
00:07:19.520 U.S. withdrawal forces from the region. 0.78
00:07:21.520 Compensation for Iran's war damages. 0.54
00:07:23.320 Formal non-aggression guarantees. 0.65
00:07:25.200 Binding UN Security Council agreement.
00:07:27.680 People are saying this is not true.
00:07:29.860 But this is what's spreading.
00:07:31.180 So what I'm reading to you is what a lot of people are saying,
00:07:34.980 that this is what's on the line, you know?
00:07:37.120 But we're going to see what's going to be negotiated. 0.87
00:07:38.320 If it comes out and they get anywhere close to this, Iran won. 0.98
00:07:43.600 Yeah, 100%. 0.95
00:07:44.420 Iran won in a big way.
00:07:45.660 And then guess what happens? 0.79
00:07:47.320 You think they're going to sit on the sidelines
00:07:48.880 and not do anything the next two, three decades?
00:07:50.820 No.
00:07:51.300 I don't think so.
00:07:52.000 I think they just got bolder.
00:07:53.220 I think they just got tougher.
00:07:54.360 I think they just got stronger.
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00:08:57.180 Yeah.
00:08:57.920 They're going to come out and timing, just, you know,
00:09:01.340 especially if this kind of income is not going to be coming in every year,
00:09:04.660 what types of weapons do you think they're going to have in their arsenal?
00:09:07.020 What type of investments do you think they're going to be making?
00:09:09.740 What do you think they're going to go back to doing?
00:09:11.620 You think they're just going to sit and not do anything about it?
00:09:14.140 You know how they said the money that was sent to him to Iran,
00:09:16.460 that, hey, he was going to build bridges, he was going to do this to Iran,
00:09:18.760 all those monies went to what?
00:09:20.200 Weapons.
00:09:20.600 They were waiting.
00:09:21.280 Some of them went to them.
00:09:22.080 Some of them went to them.
00:09:22.580 So I don't know.
00:09:23.760 I think it's too early to tell.
00:09:25.240 I'm not a fan of the ceasefire right now.
00:09:27.740 I'm not.
00:09:28.240 I just think ceasefires are not going to be kept by anybody.
00:09:31.220 I think the other, we claim we agreed to a ceasefire.
00:09:33.920 And what did we do?
00:09:34.460 We attacked.
00:09:35.500 You know, Iran claimed that, and boom, same thing happened with Ukraine and Russia.
00:09:38.760 Remember how many times I said, oh, we agreed to a ceasefire instantly, hours later, there
00:09:42.840 was an attack.
00:09:43.420 So I don't know how much, historically, ceasefires have never worked, historically.
00:09:47.360 Can I recommend an idea to the president?
00:09:49.020 Yeah, of course.
00:09:49.560 Go for it.
00:09:49.980 So, you know, one of the most controversial things of all time I think would work perfectly
00:09:53.400 here, the Iran-Contra affair, where we built an arms manufacturing base secretly in a place
00:09:59.220 close to Nicaragua to send arms to the rebels to help them overtake the communist regime. So
00:10:05.280 you need to build an arms manufacturing facility in something like Saudi Arabia, somewhere close 0.88
00:10:09.320 by, and just get as many guns as possible into Iran, into the hands of citizens there. Because 0.87
00:10:13.180 it's not going to be, like, you know, when you say, what does, like, finishing the thing look
00:10:16.800 like? How do you finish them? You can take out as many leaders as you want, but there's still 25%
00:10:20.060 of the population that supports the IRCG. So there's always going to be somebody that pops up
00:10:23.660 and will take the leadership. So it needs to be a civil war type of situation. Right now,
00:10:27.440 the population that's against the regime isn't equipped for a civil war so if we could equip
00:10:31.280 them for a civil war it's not something that happens overnight how you do it though go ahead
00:10:34.380 and do it put a put an arms manufacturing facility as close as possible to iran and smuggle it in
00:10:38.760 it's a long-term thing not something's going to happen overnight but aside from that yeah the two 0.86
00:10:42.520 options are either let them win or just nuke the country so because you can kill as many leaders
00:10:46.980 as you want but there's still millions of people there let me ask you a question let me ask you
00:10:50.760 question day one of the war versus today do you think the world is looking at iran and seeing
00:10:57.600 they're saying how weak they are or do you think they're looking at iran and saying okay they're
00:11:02.360 more capable and strategic than we thought we are what would they are what do you think the world
00:11:05.760 is saying they have more power than we thought and part of that is that do you think yeah i think
00:11:09.520 that they're wow they're more resilient than i thought it took that it's taken a long time
00:11:15.140 to take it to this level and they're still kind of standing this is surprising i think that's
00:11:20.580 what they're saying and by the way iran already has an arms manufacturing factory it's called
00:11:25.740 china and if you don't think that in the net by the way for itself though for the government well
00:11:30.100 you you asked me yeah who i thought won the ceasefire that's different from whether i think
00:11:34.860 it's going to work i don't think it's going to work and number one and number two i think we've
00:11:39.900 just given them a training so now they're going to figure out different techniques to use and
00:11:44.620 They're going to figure out ways to do it.
00:11:46.640 And if this is really impacting China's economy, then guess what? 0.87
00:11:51.540 China is the arms manufacturing factory that's going to help Iran. 0.56
00:11:55.060 But that's helping the government. 0.65
00:11:57.040 I'm talking about smuggling weapons to the citizens there.
00:11:59.360 We need a rebel group to form that's against the government.
00:12:02.040 That's not for the IRCG.
00:12:04.180 So that's what I'm saying with that.
00:12:07.080 Yeah, no, but going back to it.
00:12:08.840 So if you're talking about doing that, what I'm trying to say is the following.
00:12:11.640 If, like, the war with Ukraine and Russia, when they started attacking, what was the first thing everybody thought?
00:12:19.140 Putin or Russia was going to win.
00:12:20.360 Russia was going to what?
00:12:21.220 They're just going to walk in and take all that country back. 0.94
00:12:24.120 Humpty Dumpty, USSR is getting rebuilt. 0.96
00:12:26.340 What happened? 0.95
00:12:27.320 It became a quagmire.
00:12:29.160 But why, though?
00:12:29.860 This is different.
00:12:30.500 These are two different stories, but similar. 0.90
00:12:32.060 The reason why it's different is who had Ukraine's back? 0.86
00:12:34.620 All of Europe and the U.S. 0.84
00:12:36.540 And the U.S.
00:12:37.000 Democratic regime. 0.70
00:12:38.380 So Russia was by themselves.
00:12:40.300 Of course, they've got a couple other people that are helping them out, but they realize, wait a minute, that's not enough. 0.63
00:12:45.620 And Ukraine is destroying you with the smaller little drones that they're building. 0.74
00:12:50.000 You know, $2,000 drones, $20,000 drones flying into $4 million tanks, you know, whatever, $4 million equipment explosion, right?
00:12:56.420 Okay.
00:12:57.060 But they had backing.
00:12:58.060 Iran did this with who backing them up?
00:13:01.380 Not that much from anybody. 0.77
00:13:02.980 No.
00:13:03.660 If you think about it.
00:13:04.660 No one that would admit it.
00:13:05.800 No one that would admit it, but maybe a little bit, but not that much.
00:13:08.560 So to me, I don't know, to me, if this goes the way it's going. 0.53
00:13:15.940 So if you're saying, well, let's give weapons to their people.
00:13:19.360 Well, if U.S. and Israel went after Iran thinking there's going to be a regime change or regime collapse,
00:13:26.920 if the IRGC still runs Iran after the ceasefire, there is no regime collapse or regime change.
00:13:34.820 That's correct.
00:13:35.440 Yeah, no.
00:13:35.760 Let me say it again.
00:13:36.740 And if IRGC still runs Iran, there was no regime change or regime collapse.
00:13:42.720 So if you give weapons to the people, you think the people are going to have better weapons than America and Israel has?
00:13:49.720 No. 0.75
00:13:50.300 So I don't even think that's going to work.
00:13:52.080 I don't even think that's going to work.
00:13:53.420 I think you need a civil war there.
00:13:55.720 Yeah. 0.87
00:13:56.240 Yeah, the difference between a civil war that we had in America versus a civil war in Iran 0.92
00:14:02.560 is the civil war in Iran, the government is willing to kill its own people. 0.77
00:14:08.880 It's a very different kind of a civil war.
00:14:11.140 It's not the civil war that you think about.
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