Valuetainment - November 03, 2026


Kalshi’s Weirdest Markets： Taylor Swift, Goats & Onions

Kalshi Had Bolsonaro at 85%. Lula Won. Kalshi Founder Explains Brazil’s Upset

Episode Stats


Length

6 minutes

Words per minute

203.92

Word count

1,412

Sentence count

105

Harmful content

Misogyny

2

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.000 How many total markets have you guys ever had?
00:00:01.760 We have tens of thousands.
00:00:03.400 All time.
00:00:04.160 Millions now.
00:00:04.820 Millions now.
00:00:05.540 How many active do you have right now?
00:00:06.840 I think tens of thousands.
00:00:07.820 Tens of thousands.
00:00:10.780 And the method of creating, tracking, approving, what is that process?
00:00:18.000 Like, does a group come in?
00:00:18.980 What things will you say no to?
00:00:19.940 It does.
00:00:20.160 I mean, like, look at the Dodgers market real quick.
00:00:22.580 If you Google maybe, like, Dodgers or Calci Hatch, maybe just Google it.
00:00:26.560 and Cal State Dodgers, I mean, maybe Reuters,
00:00:34.540 the article right below that one.
00:00:39.420 You know, that was a market that we already had.
00:00:43.000 I mean, we already had markets on the teams.
00:00:45.980 They were like, okay, I want that specific market
00:00:47.620 and then not making it past the playoffs
00:00:49.160 because that's the risk that we really incur.
00:00:51.680 And you see that $60,000 hedge,
00:00:54.660 they didn't do it to make money.
00:00:55.740 They did it to offset some of the risks that they had.
00:01:00.480 And we discussed this a little bit.
00:01:02.440 Sometimes these market formations
00:01:03.580 is like specific to the risks that a person has.
00:01:05.660 And sometimes it's more broad
00:01:06.580 where like they basically buy the index.
00:01:08.220 Like, oh, the Dodgers are going to do well over time
00:01:09.900 or do less well over time.
00:01:11.520 And we always have to balance like,
00:01:12.880 is there going to be enough liquidity?
00:01:14.420 Are there going to be enough investment?
00:01:15.280 How do liquidity comes?
00:01:16.220 It's from people that are speculating, right?
00:01:18.640 Because whenever someone is hedging,
00:01:20.160 who's on the other side?
00:01:21.460 It's a speculator.
00:01:21.980 Someone is doing it for making money.
00:01:23.540 And that's the key thing.
00:01:24.500 We always think about what are the markets that will have enough liquidity
00:01:26.820 where people are going to be speculating trading enough.
00:01:28.320 You know, people say, do people bet on cash?
00:01:29.640 Like, yeah, they bet like they bet on the stock market.
00:01:31.420 But that speculation is the thing that helps get the market efficiency
00:01:35.120 and the prices to help the hedgers do what they need to do.
00:01:37.360 Give me the weirdest markets you've had, weirdest positions you've had.
00:01:40.280 Oh, the goat herder is one of them.
00:01:41.940 That's one of them.
00:01:42.580 What else have you had?
00:01:43.580 Taylor Swift is always very popular.
00:01:46.660 Taylor Swift.
00:01:47.120 Any kind.
00:01:47.580 Where she was going to get married.
00:01:49.920 You know, I have a deal with MSG.
00:01:51.520 So people always, you know, when I talk to policymakers,
00:01:53.620 They come to me and they say, why are people trading on Taylor Swift?
00:01:56.480 Like, what is the economic purpose of her?
00:01:59.200 Like, it's, you know, wedding dress is another example.
00:02:03.280 And I'll tell you that.
00:02:06.280 Whether she picks Dior or not, do you believe it's going to move the Dior stock price?
00:02:10.320 Now, they're a private company, but do you believe it will move it?
00:02:12.380 I think so.
00:02:13.100 For sure.
00:02:13.640 I mean, like, yeah.
00:02:14.600 I mean, think about.
00:02:15.380 402,000.
00:02:16.160 So what.
00:02:16.760 Think about the number of people.
00:02:18.080 Think about the number of people that will pick Dior as their wedding dress just because Taylor Swift picked her wedding dress.
00:02:23.620 just think about that just surely that so so isn't that a lot of opportunities there 0.85
00:02:28.120 for somebody for even for her team to go to Dior and say hey 50 million dollars will have you be 1.00
00:02:37.120 the dress up isn't there like opportunities like that I mean but they probably pay her to do that
00:02:40.860 by the way think about it you don't think George is going to pay that's what I'm saying I would
00:02:44.220 that's advertisers what they do I mean you know people we had a market where she was going to get
00:02:48.620 married okay people are like well that's frivolous why would anyone care about that i'll tell you
00:02:53.540 like i care about i mean i have a partnership with msg where the concourse on the sixth floor
00:02:57.820 is not the cashy concourse and i can tell you right now we have an internal model that tells
00:03:02.360 you how much value is that part you know we pay except let's call it that's not the right number
00:03:05.940 but let's say we call it we pay a million dollars a year for that partnership after taylor swift
00:03:09.680 decided to get married there that million dollars a year of value is now 2.5 million dollars a year
00:03:15.620 value think about it i mean it's you have but think think about you know what when advert people
00:03:23.880 always tell me sports have economic consequences obviously they have economic consequences like
00:03:27.220 if you we we if you sponsor like do you think my msg deal might the deal value of my msg
00:03:32.620 partnership went up after the next one no three x two and a half x exactly what so is that a binary
00:03:38.960 risk that i actually hold so far they gotta they gotta yeah they gotta do better but is there an
00:03:43.940 economic impact from the next winning or losing there's no question the main thing is to manipulation
00:03:48.020 and that's why it's regulated that's why it's regulated right like the regulatory what do you
00:03:53.320 do about there's manipulation in the stock market i mean actually you know you know this is funny
00:03:56.320 you know that onion futures are illegal in america illegal illegal look at the onion act no there's
00:04:04.920 no way you're gonna find if the onion act is gonna be repealed you're not gonna have
00:04:08.240 If you go look at Wikipedia, Onion Act, you know why?
00:04:13.940 So onion is the only vegetable where it's illegal to have a future on in America.
00:04:17.860 Why is that?
00:04:18.620 So onion, no, just do Onion Act, not Act.
00:04:22.200 Yeah.
00:04:23.160 Onion Future Act.
00:04:25.200 Is the United States law banning the trading of futures contracts on onions as well as motion picture box office?
00:04:29.980 Motion picture box office is another story, and we can talk about that.
00:04:34.320 But what happened?
00:04:35.240 Two guys, 1955, Sam Siegel and Vincent Kosuga,
00:04:39.300 what did they do?
00:04:41.080 Have you heard of a short squeeze?
00:04:42.860 They put a short squeeze.
00:04:43.820 Yeah, of course.
00:04:44.400 Yeah, they bought all the onions to pie,
00:04:45.480 put a short squeeze and then tanked the market,
00:04:47.280 which bankrupted a lot of farmers.
00:04:48.500 They manipulated the onion markets to make a profit.
00:04:52.600 What did Congress decide?
00:04:53.520 What was Congress' conclusion at the time?
00:04:55.700 Congress was like, you know what?
00:04:57.120 The problem is clearly onions here, not humans.
00:04:59.800 So we should ban onion futures.
00:05:00.880 That will fix the issue.
00:05:01.960 As if that could never happen
00:05:04.060 and corn futures or soybean futures
00:05:06.400 or financial markets that are at large.
00:05:08.420 The answer is not banning onion futures, as we know.
00:05:11.040 The answer is actually regulating them.
00:05:13.960 Add the right set of guardrails
00:05:15.200 and the same guardrails.
00:05:16.080 The risk exists anyways.
00:05:17.420 Humans will always try to game a system.
00:05:19.580 And by the way, you know, this is a bad outcome
00:05:20.900 because onion futures are one.
00:05:22.420 So if you go to my Twitter,
00:05:23.940 you'll see a tweet I put out recently
00:05:25.540 on I compared oil price volatility to onion prices,
00:05:28.660 which is not a one-to-one comparison,
00:05:29.620 but still it gives you a little bit of a feeling.
00:05:31.840 So if you go down a little bit,
00:05:32.800 a little bit more.
00:05:34.440 You're going to find the chart
00:05:35.360 a little bit more here.
00:05:37.180 If you open that chart,
00:05:39.040 look at the volatility
00:05:39.920 of onion prices against oil.
00:05:43.500 And by the way,
00:05:44.180 oil is considered to be a volatile,
00:05:45.520 you know how oil
00:05:46.240 will be excluded from inflation
00:05:47.320 because it's a very volatile commodity.
00:05:49.320 Look at the volatility
00:05:49.860 of onion prices.
00:05:51.020 You know why?
00:05:52.260 There's no futures market for it.
00:05:53.700 It's less predictable.
00:05:55.660 That's a bad thing.
00:05:58.000 So because of that,
00:06:00.320 interesting.
00:06:01.020 Isn't that like, isn't that,
00:06:02.100 I mean, this is an,
00:06:02.800 actual should we have bad onions and the answer is unequivocally no as a terrible decision very
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