Valuetainment - June 28, 2026


＂Nobody Wants to Fix It＂ – ITR Warns Government Debt Could Trigger a Global Depression

Topics
ITR global depression forecast government debt
Hosted by
Patrick Bet-David
Mentioned
Grandpa Vinny Adam
＂No Longer Republican＂ – Tucker Carlson Breaks With the Republican Party “You Don’t Get Rewarded For Failure” – Uruguay’s Post‑World Cup Backlash

Episode Stats


Length

12 minutes

Words per minute

190.26

Word count

2,347

Sentence count

206

Harmful content

Hate speech

11

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

On this episode of the Stock Market Movers podcast, the guys discuss a new report from ITR predicting a major global depression in the 2030s. They also discuss the impact of the aging Baby Boomer population on Social Security and Medicare.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00 Celebrate Canada Day by getting even more for your points.
00:00:04 It's the Super Redemption event at Shoppers Drug Mart.
00:00:07 Friday, June 26th to Wednesday, July 1st.
00:00:10 Valid in-store and online.
00:00:15 Can you pull up ITR that's been around since 1948?
00:00:18 Just type in ITR 1948.
00:00:22 Yeah, just type in 1948.
00:00:24 These guys have been predicting and forecasting
00:00:26 what's going to happen to the economy, okay?
00:00:30 since 1948, and they've been accurate 94.7% of the time.
00:00:36 94.7% of the time, they've been accurate.
00:00:40 Okay, they just came out and they predicted,
00:00:44 they state that this figure is their overall forecast accuracy since 1985,
00:00:50 based on their own audited methodology.
00:00:52 It's not a claim that they correctly predicted 90.
00:00:55 It is a claim that 94.7% of all economic events,
00:00:59 And ITR has for years argued that the world is heading towards a major global depression in 2030.
00:01:08 With the trough around 2036, so around a six-year period,
00:01:14 they have built an entire research series around this thesis.
00:01:17 Their argument is the following, and Tom, I'm coming to you first,
00:01:20 and then definitely to Vinny next.
00:01:22 Their argument is based on several long-term structural trends.
00:01:27 Number one, aging population and shrinking workforce.
00:01:31 Number two, high government debt levels.
00:01:34 Number three, rising entitlement obligations, which we just talked about snapping one of them.
00:01:40 Number four, slower productivity growth.
00:01:43 And number five, demographic shifts occurring simultaneously across many developed countries.
00:01:51 Tom, do you agree with them that there will be a major global depression in the 2030s?
00:01:55 30s so to answer your question from earlier i didn't remember it was itr but i remember reading
00:02:01 about this this long-term thing um and i believe i don't know if it's the 30s but there is merit
00:02:09 to something the first is people are retiring united states and they're not being replaced
00:02:14 with people that are you know earning as much and so one argument is well just open the borders and
00:02:19 let everybody work and make sure everybody pays taxes, and country debt and the long-term
00:02:28 obligations on Social Security and Medicare.
00:02:30 We're already having the discussions.
00:02:34 As a matter of fact, there was a poll last week, and did we cover the story?
00:02:38 I think we covered the story, Pat.
00:02:39 Which one?
00:02:40 The poll about how people—it was a poll, and it was bookended.
00:02:43 People in their 30s were not in favor of continuing to pay higher taxes for Social Security, but people in their 70s were not in favor of cutting their Social Security benefits.
00:02:55 So the chart was like an X exactly along what you would think, the 10-year age lines.
00:03:03 So there's two parts to it.
00:03:05 They're correct about government debt needs to be corrected.
00:03:07 When we're paying now more interest on the debt than our defense spending, we've got a problem.
00:03:12 So that's got to work itself out. And then what do we do with the aging population? We already see what's happening to health care. And what this study just says, listen, guys, somewhere around 2030, three years from now, it's got to break and it's got to shift and it will take five years to correct itself.
00:03:31 So they're saying there would be like a 2008 to 2009.
00:03:37 Remember, we had a bounce back in 2009.
00:03:40 Guess what?
00:03:40 What they're saying, it's going to be a 2008, and it's not going to bounce back to 2013.
00:03:46 So they're saying there's going to be this major correction based on these things.
00:03:49 I can't argue against their arguments of the macro factors.
00:03:54 Does it happen this way, or do we find ways around it?
00:03:58 I don't know.
00:03:59 Is Elon Musk right that we're going to have such productivity boom that we're going to have UBI for everybody under $100,000 a year?
00:04:06 That everybody under $100,000 is just going to get paid for out of the taxes because we're going to tax the robots and stuff?
00:04:12 But I'll tell you, you can't argue against their points.
00:04:16 Their points are right.
00:04:16 Yeah, and by the way, a part of it is the fertility rate. 0.96
00:04:19 The other one is boomers are retiring, and we've got to take care of them with Social Security. 0.92
00:04:22 We saw the numbers if you want to pull it up with Social Security. 1.00
00:04:24 It's running out in 2032, which, by the way, when you're sitting down and thinking about the numbers,
00:04:28 they've been saying this in your if you've not looked at your Social Security statement,
00:04:32 just so you know, in your Social Security statement, you know what they put in there the last 20 years?
00:04:38 That this is going to run out of money in 2032.
00:04:43 Like, you know, when you get yours, have you ever looked at your Social Security statement?
00:04:47 No. OK, when they send it in, they tell you they've been telling you this for 20 plus years.
00:04:52 The fund is going to run out of money by 2032-ish.
00:04:56 I don't know what the exact numbers, but they've been saying that.
00:04:58 So, yeah, right there.
00:04:59 So what is that?
00:05:00 Social Security insolvency now projected for 2032, putting benefits at risk of a 22% cut.
00:05:06 You know who's worried about this?
00:05:07 There's 70 million Americans across the board, benefits that are sitting there saying,
00:05:11 what do you mean you're going to cut 22% of it by 2032?
00:05:14 We don't have a choice, is what they're saying.
00:05:17 We don't have the money. 0.64
00:05:18 So they're talking about boomers retiring, and they're counting on this. 0.86
00:05:22 Major economies like China, Europe, Japan, South Korea are aging simultaneously. 0.59
00:05:27 The government debt, which is what we just talked about.
00:05:29 Millions of experienced workers retiring.
00:05:32 Fewer young workers replacing them.
00:05:35 Rising wages squeeze business margins while slowing overall economic growth.
00:05:40 You just saw the story with Apple, which we'll get into here in a minute.
00:05:43 Adam, when you hear something like this, how do you react to it?
00:05:46 Well, you know, I said, if you don't learn from history, you're destined to repeat it.
00:05:49 They're saying this is going to start in the 2030s.
00:05:52 Depression begins around 2030 is what they say, and it ends in 2036.
00:05:56 So exactly 100 years prior was basically, I think, Black Tuesday.
00:06:00 That was, I think, in 1929, October of 1929.
00:06:03 That's basically when the stock market crashed.
00:06:05 And then the 1930s was a season where the banks fell.
00:06:08 Unemployment, I think, went to 25 percent.
00:06:11 Businesses were closed.
00:06:12 And then FDR came out, the new deal.
00:06:14 And the coup de grace was basically the U.S. entered World War II in 1941.
00:06:20 So it was a horrible year for America.
00:06:22 But it was a worse year, worse decade for the rest of the world.
00:06:26 Now, are they saying that this is going to be a global depression?
00:06:30 Global depression.
00:06:31 The global.
00:06:31 So not even the United States.
00:06:32 No, no, no.
00:06:32 Global.
00:06:33 Exactly.
00:06:33 So here's my point.
00:06:34 You know, they say when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world gets a cold.
00:06:38 So I'd be way more worried if I'm the rest of the world's reserve currency.
00:06:42 What happened?
00:06:43 I don't want to get COVID.
00:06:45 But look, all you can do,
00:06:48 who knows if this is going to happen or not,
00:06:50 all you can do is equip yourself in the meantime
00:06:52 to work, earn, save, and invest
00:06:54 and put yourself in a position that, God forbid,
00:06:55 something like this happens, you have the skills
00:06:57 and the prerequisites to make sure that you're not
00:07:00 one of the masses who are waiting in a food line.
00:07:02 Guy asked me a question on my neck literally
00:07:03 two days ago saying, Pat,
00:07:05 if this is what you guys are talking about
00:07:07 and this is what's going to be happening in the future,
00:07:09 how are you personally preparing yourself for this?
00:07:11 Our brand is what?
00:07:12 Future looks bright.
00:07:13 Right behind you right there.
00:07:14 Boom.
00:07:14 Future looks bright.
00:07:15 I don't even got to turn around, Pat.
00:07:16 I already know by heart.
00:07:16 It's right behind you, right?
00:07:17 Future looks bright.
00:07:18 And we believe in that.
00:07:19 I fully believe in that.
00:07:20 And my job when I get around anybody is to try to baptize you into believing that as well.
00:07:24 Anywhere I go, I especially wear the hat because it's such a big conversation starter.
00:07:30 Anywhere you go, people look at you.
00:07:31 And when anybody frowns, they make a noise like that.
00:07:34 What happened?
00:07:35 Do you not agree the future looks bright?
00:07:36 No, I don't believe the future looks bright.
00:07:38 And you want to have that conversation with them.
00:07:40 But he says, what are you doing in a situation like this?
00:07:41 I said, look, you can, one, hear fear porn like this and get scared and do nothing.
00:07:49 That is the worst thing you can do.
00:07:51 Number two, you can diversify your assets and know that if a global depression takes place, guess what's taking a hit?
00:07:59 You don't know what's going to be taking a hit.
00:08:01 Potentially everything could be taking a hit.
00:08:02 But if you have a little bit of gold, if you have a little bit of real estate, if you have some stocks, if you have some crypto, if you have some non-duplicatable assets, and you have savings in place to get through it, you should be okay.
00:08:18 But I think the reason why this is going to be happening eventually, and I don't know the exact timeline on when it will happen.
00:08:24 You know why I think, Tom, this is going to be eventually happening?
00:08:27 Because no candidate can actually do what is the right thing to do for America and get elected.
00:08:34 That's the problem.
00:08:35 And no one will.
00:08:36 No, no, because, hey, what are you going to campaign for?
00:08:39 I'm cutting Social Security and extending the age five years.
00:08:42 Okay, you're done.
00:08:43 What are you going to do? 0.96
00:08:44 I'm eliminating 80% of SNAP and only the people that are going to get it.
00:08:48 You have a six-month timeline before you go and get a job.
00:08:51 Okay, you're not getting elected.
00:08:52 What are you going to do?
00:08:53 I'm cutting spending in every aspect of our spending.
00:08:56 We're going to renegotiate all the contracts and doge.
00:08:58 Oh, you're going to jail.
00:08:59 What are you going to do?
00:09:00 Everything you campaign on, which is the right thing to do,
00:09:03 you're probably not going to get elected.
00:09:05 And here's what happens.
00:09:06 Guys, pull up the thing I just sent you,
00:09:08 a protest against austerity in Athens and Berlin, 2013.
00:09:13 Is this it?
00:09:13 2015. 0.99
00:09:15 Older Americans support raising taxes.
00:09:16 This is the chart that's hysterical, where younger Americans says,
00:09:19 cut benefits for grandpa.
00:09:21 Grandpa says, no, cut benefits for the young workers.
00:09:24 And then Grandpa says, keep my retirement.
00:09:27 And the young workers said, no.
00:09:29 So guess what?
00:09:29 Both ends are voting for themselves.
00:09:32 For sure they are.
00:09:32 Of course, that's how they vote.
00:09:34 But now watch the Guardian article, guys, that I just sent you.
00:09:37 It's in the – there we go.
00:09:39 This here, send that away.
00:09:41 This is 2015.
00:09:43 Let me read below it.
00:09:45 Obviously, this guy's blittied up.
00:09:47 Demonstrations against the Greek bailout deal were staged in Berlin.
00:09:50 as riots broke out in Athens and some of the most serious violence in over two years.
00:09:55 Police responded with tear gas. Why is that?
00:09:57 Because hundreds of people were protesting after the Greek parliament voted to approve austerity measures.
00:10:05 Translation, they cut Social Security and they raised taxes on the youth.
00:10:09 And take a look.
00:10:11 All the young people are in favor of, hey, cut the benefits a little for the older.
00:10:16 And then you had old people also protesting is, no, this is what happened in Greece when the parliament went bankrupt and they had no choice in 2015. 0.64
00:10:26 Yeah, I mean, that's coming to America. 1.00
00:10:28 That's exactly right. 0.99
00:10:28 And it's going to be a feud between the elderly and the youth.
00:10:32 And they're going to say, you screwed us over.
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00:11:40 If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this, click here.
00:11:43 And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.
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