Valuetainment - June 28, 2026


＂Nobody Wants to Fix It＂ – ITR Warns Government Debt Could Trigger a Global Depression


Episode Stats


Length

12 minutes

Words per minute

190.26

Word count

2,347

Sentence count

183

Harmful content

Hate speech

11

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

On this episode of the Stock Market Movers podcast, the guys discuss a new report from ITR predicting a major global depression in the 2030s. They also discuss the impact of the aging Baby Boomer population on Social Security and Medicare.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.900 Celebrate Canada Day by getting even more for your points.
00:00:04.700 It's the Super Redemption event at Shoppers Drug Mart.
00:00:07.880 Friday, June 26th to Wednesday, July 1st.
00:00:10.940 Valid in-store and online.
00:00:15.340 Can you pull up ITR that's been around since 1948?
00:00:18.660 Just type in ITR 1948.
00:00:22.120 Yeah, just type in 1948.
00:00:24.360 These guys have been predicting and forecasting
00:00:26.800 what's going to happen to the economy, okay?
00:00:30.000 since 1948, and they've been accurate 94.7% of the time.
00:00:36.820 94.7% of the time, they've been accurate.
00:00:40.440 Okay, they just came out and they predicted,
00:00:44.700 they state that this figure is their overall forecast accuracy since 1985,
00:00:50.560 based on their own audited methodology.
00:00:52.600 It's not a claim that they correctly predicted 90.
00:00:55.080 It is a claim that 94.7% of all economic events,
00:00:59.260 And ITR has for years argued that the world is heading towards a major global depression in 2030.
00:01:08.000 With the trough around 2036, so around a six-year period,
00:01:14.520 they have built an entire research series around this thesis.
00:01:17.680 Their argument is the following, and Tom, I'm coming to you first,
00:01:20.720 and then definitely to Vinny next.
00:01:22.040 Their argument is based on several long-term structural trends.
00:01:27.340 Number one, aging population and shrinking workforce.
00:01:31.700 Number two, high government debt levels.
00:01:34.660 Number three, rising entitlement obligations, which we just talked about snapping one of them.
00:01:40.520 Number four, slower productivity growth.
00:01:43.840 And number five, demographic shifts occurring simultaneously across many developed countries.
00:01:51.160 Tom, do you agree with them that there will be a major global depression in the 2030s?
00:01:55.340 30s so to answer your question from earlier i didn't remember it was itr but i remember reading
00:02:01.340 about this this long-term thing um and i believe i don't know if it's the 30s but there is merit
00:02:09.060 to something the first is people are retiring united states and they're not being replaced
00:02:14.440 with people that are you know earning as much and so one argument is well just open the borders and
00:02:19.660 let everybody work and make sure everybody pays taxes, and country debt and the long-term
00:02:28.400 obligations on Social Security and Medicare.
00:02:30.880 We're already having the discussions.
00:02:34.260 As a matter of fact, there was a poll last week, and did we cover the story?
00:02:38.500 I think we covered the story, Pat.
00:02:39.680 Which one?
00:02:40.040 The poll about how people—it was a poll, and it was bookended.
00:02:43.360 People in their 30s were not in favor of continuing to pay higher taxes for Social Security, but people in their 70s were not in favor of cutting their Social Security benefits.
00:02:55.760 So the chart was like an X exactly along what you would think, the 10-year age lines.
00:03:03.020 So there's two parts to it.
00:03:05.300 They're correct about government debt needs to be corrected.
00:03:07.860 When we're paying now more interest on the debt than our defense spending, we've got a problem.
00:03:12.880 So that's got to work itself out. And then what do we do with the aging population? We already see what's happening to health care. And what this study just says, listen, guys, somewhere around 2030, three years from now, it's got to break and it's got to shift and it will take five years to correct itself.
00:03:31.980 So they're saying there would be like a 2008 to 2009.
00:03:37.380 Remember, we had a bounce back in 2009.
00:03:40.000 Guess what?
00:03:40.360 What they're saying, it's going to be a 2008, and it's not going to bounce back to 2013.
00:03:46.580 So they're saying there's going to be this major correction based on these things.
00:03:49.980 I can't argue against their arguments of the macro factors.
00:03:54.440 Does it happen this way, or do we find ways around it?
00:03:58.800 I don't know.
00:03:59.680 Is Elon Musk right that we're going to have such productivity boom that we're going to have UBI for everybody under $100,000 a year?
00:04:06.480 That everybody under $100,000 is just going to get paid for out of the taxes because we're going to tax the robots and stuff?
00:04:12.380 But I'll tell you, you can't argue against their points.
00:04:16.000 Their points are right.
00:04:16.960 Yeah, and by the way, a part of it is the fertility rate. 0.96
00:04:19.360 The other one is boomers are retiring, and we've got to take care of them with Social Security. 0.92
00:04:22.400 We saw the numbers if you want to pull it up with Social Security. 1.00
00:04:24.860 It's running out in 2032, which, by the way, when you're sitting down and thinking about the numbers,
00:04:28.920 they've been saying this in your if you've not looked at your Social Security statement,
00:04:32.840 just so you know, in your Social Security statement, you know what they put in there the last 20 years?
00:04:38.260 That this is going to run out of money in 2032.
00:04:43.200 Like, you know, when you get yours, have you ever looked at your Social Security statement?
00:04:47.080 No. OK, when they send it in, they tell you they've been telling you this for 20 plus years.
00:04:52.360 The fund is going to run out of money by 2032-ish.
00:04:56.440 I don't know what the exact numbers, but they've been saying that.
00:04:58.880 So, yeah, right there.
00:04:59.680 So what is that?
00:05:00.120 Social Security insolvency now projected for 2032, putting benefits at risk of a 22% cut.
00:05:06.060 You know who's worried about this?
00:05:07.320 There's 70 million Americans across the board, benefits that are sitting there saying,
00:05:11.480 what do you mean you're going to cut 22% of it by 2032?
00:05:14.060 We don't have a choice, is what they're saying.
00:05:17.180 We don't have the money. 0.64
00:05:18.620 So they're talking about boomers retiring, and they're counting on this. 0.86
00:05:22.440 Major economies like China, Europe, Japan, South Korea are aging simultaneously. 0.59
00:05:27.060 The government debt, which is what we just talked about.
00:05:29.820 Millions of experienced workers retiring.
00:05:32.840 Fewer young workers replacing them.
00:05:35.580 Rising wages squeeze business margins while slowing overall economic growth.
00:05:40.540 You just saw the story with Apple, which we'll get into here in a minute.
00:05:43.660 Adam, when you hear something like this, how do you react to it?
00:05:46.240 Well, you know, I said, if you don't learn from history, you're destined to repeat it.
00:05:49.360 They're saying this is going to start in the 2030s.
00:05:52.100 Depression begins around 2030 is what they say, and it ends in 2036.
00:05:56.320 So exactly 100 years prior was basically, I think, Black Tuesday.
00:06:00.660 That was, I think, in 1929, October of 1929.
00:06:03.720 That's basically when the stock market crashed.
00:06:05.620 And then the 1930s was a season where the banks fell.
00:06:08.540 Unemployment, I think, went to 25 percent.
00:06:11.480 Businesses were closed.
00:06:12.580 And then FDR came out, the new deal.
00:06:14.260 And the coup de grace was basically the U.S. entered World War II in 1941.
00:06:20.020 So it was a horrible year for America.
00:06:22.720 But it was a worse year, worse decade for the rest of the world.
00:06:26.480 Now, are they saying that this is going to be a global depression?
00:06:30.380 Global depression.
00:06:31.160 The global.
00:06:31.460 So not even the United States.
00:06:32.260 No, no, no.
00:06:32.740 Global.
00:06:33.060 Exactly.
00:06:33.500 So here's my point.
00:06:34.520 You know, they say when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world gets a cold.
00:06:38.680 So I'd be way more worried if I'm the rest of the world's reserve currency.
00:06:42.720 What happened?
00:06:43.480 I don't want to get COVID.
00:06:45.880 But look, all you can do,
00:06:48.540 who knows if this is going to happen or not,
00:06:50.200 all you can do is equip yourself in the meantime
00:06:52.060 to work, earn, save, and invest
00:06:54.160 and put yourself in a position that, God forbid,
00:06:55.920 something like this happens, you have the skills
00:06:57.900 and the prerequisites to make sure that you're not
00:07:00.040 one of the masses who are waiting in a food line.
00:07:02.280 Guy asked me a question on my neck literally
00:07:03.960 two days ago saying, Pat,
00:07:05.840 if this is what you guys are talking about
00:07:07.500 and this is what's going to be happening in the future,
00:07:09.060 how are you personally preparing yourself for this?
00:07:11.500 Our brand is what?
00:07:12.800 Future looks bright.
00:07:13.460 Right behind you right there.
00:07:14.540 Boom.
00:07:14.840 Future looks bright.
00:07:15.100 I don't even got to turn around, Pat.
00:07:16.020 I already know by heart.
00:07:16.640 It's right behind you, right?
00:07:17.660 Future looks bright.
00:07:18.340 And we believe in that.
00:07:19.320 I fully believe in that.
00:07:20.400 And my job when I get around anybody is to try to baptize you into believing that as well.
00:07:24.860 Anywhere I go, I especially wear the hat because it's such a big conversation starter.
00:07:30.120 Anywhere you go, people look at you.
00:07:31.620 And when anybody frowns, they make a noise like that.
00:07:34.680 What happened?
00:07:35.280 Do you not agree the future looks bright?
00:07:36.780 No, I don't believe the future looks bright.
00:07:38.660 And you want to have that conversation with them.
00:07:40.100 But he says, what are you doing in a situation like this?
00:07:41.820 I said, look, you can, one, hear fear porn like this and get scared and do nothing.
00:07:49.020 That is the worst thing you can do.
00:07:51.140 Number two, you can diversify your assets and know that if a global depression takes place, guess what's taking a hit?
00:07:59.340 You don't know what's going to be taking a hit.
00:08:01.360 Potentially everything could be taking a hit.
00:08:02.820 But if you have a little bit of gold, if you have a little bit of real estate, if you have some stocks, if you have some crypto, if you have some non-duplicatable assets, and you have savings in place to get through it, you should be okay.
00:08:18.660 But I think the reason why this is going to be happening eventually, and I don't know the exact timeline on when it will happen.
00:08:24.320 You know why I think, Tom, this is going to be eventually happening?
00:08:27.520 Because no candidate can actually do what is the right thing to do for America and get elected.
00:08:34.440 That's the problem.
00:08:35.360 And no one will.
00:08:36.340 No, no, because, hey, what are you going to campaign for?
00:08:39.020 I'm cutting Social Security and extending the age five years.
00:08:42.020 Okay, you're done.
00:08:43.540 What are you going to do? 0.96
00:08:44.660 I'm eliminating 80% of SNAP and only the people that are going to get it.
00:08:48.660 You have a six-month timeline before you go and get a job.
00:08:51.120 Okay, you're not getting elected.
00:08:52.440 What are you going to do?
00:08:53.380 I'm cutting spending in every aspect of our spending.
00:08:56.060 We're going to renegotiate all the contracts and doge.
00:08:58.500 Oh, you're going to jail.
00:08:59.720 What are you going to do?
00:09:00.840 Everything you campaign on, which is the right thing to do,
00:09:03.780 you're probably not going to get elected.
00:09:05.900 And here's what happens.
00:09:06.880 Guys, pull up the thing I just sent you,
00:09:08.580 a protest against austerity in Athens and Berlin, 2013.
00:09:13.360 Is this it?
00:09:13.940 2015. 0.99
00:09:15.120 Older Americans support raising taxes.
00:09:16.640 This is the chart that's hysterical, where younger Americans says,
00:09:19.760 cut benefits for grandpa.
00:09:21.480 Grandpa says, no, cut benefits for the young workers.
00:09:24.840 And then Grandpa says, keep my retirement.
00:09:27.280 And the young workers said, no.
00:09:29.060 So guess what?
00:09:29.800 Both ends are voting for themselves.
00:09:32.180 For sure they are.
00:09:32.900 Of course, that's how they vote.
00:09:34.160 But now watch the Guardian article, guys, that I just sent you.
00:09:37.760 It's in the – there we go.
00:09:39.760 This here, send that away.
00:09:41.520 This is 2015.
00:09:43.860 Let me read below it.
00:09:45.360 Obviously, this guy's blittied up.
00:09:47.260 Demonstrations against the Greek bailout deal were staged in Berlin.
00:09:50.780 as riots broke out in Athens and some of the most serious violence in over two years.
00:09:55.600 Police responded with tear gas. Why is that?
00:09:57.920 Because hundreds of people were protesting after the Greek parliament voted to approve austerity measures.
00:10:05.260 Translation, they cut Social Security and they raised taxes on the youth.
00:10:09.300 And take a look.
00:10:11.160 All the young people are in favor of, hey, cut the benefits a little for the older.
00:10:16.860 And then you had old people also protesting is, no, this is what happened in Greece when the parliament went bankrupt and they had no choice in 2015. 0.64
00:10:26.460 Yeah, I mean, that's coming to America. 1.00
00:10:28.280 That's exactly right. 0.99
00:10:28.920 And it's going to be a feud between the elderly and the youth.
00:10:32.300 And they're going to say, you screwed us over.
00:10:34.900 This is going to be the biggest webinar we've ever held.
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00:10:58.740 raise great kids and the challenges of it that we all go through collectively together i'm simply
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00:11:24.520 They're like, hey, I just want you to know, it's a doctor, I just want you to know, we're
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00:11:29.940 I'm like, that's great.
00:11:30.900 The different range of people that are getting on this webinar is going to be exciting.
00:11:34.880 Again, July 1st, 6 p.m.
00:11:37.040 Go to vtwebinar.com to register for it.
00:11:40.780 If you enjoyed this video, you want to watch more videos like this, click here.
00:11:43.340 And if you want to watch the entire podcast, click here.
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