Valuetainment - November 20, 2025


＂Nvidia Is FUELING The AI Revolution＂ - Will Nvidia’s Earnings Call REVEAL The AI Bubble BURSTING？


Episode Stats

Length

13 minutes

Words per Minute

195.70297

Word Count

2,596

Sentence Count

210


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 So, NVIDIA said there's a major call going on today, okay, that everybody is waiting for, okay?
00:00:07.240 The forecast of NVIDIA.
00:00:09.080 What is it going to be, okay?
00:00:11.340 Today or tomorrow, it's either going to be a bloodbath.
00:00:15.640 It could be a very, very interesting day.
00:00:19.820 Rob, if you want to play this clip, go for it with NVIDIA's earnings.
00:00:22.960 How big are NVIDIA's earnings on Wednesday night?
00:00:25.980 It's just Super Bowl, not just for tech earnings, but I think this market, right?
00:00:29.720 I mean, the reality is that there's only one godfather of AI, and that's Jensen.
00:00:35.160 And NVIDIA, look, it's the foundation in terms of what demand looks like in terms of what we're seeing.
00:00:41.120 And Gene and I talk about it often.
00:00:43.080 I think it's going to be actually a huge positive growth catalyst that we see, not just for NVIDIA, but for tech stocks.
00:00:50.380 But it all comes down to on Wednesday night, you're going to be able to hear a pin drop on trading floors around the world.
00:00:57.040 I just don't know, Gene, how you even plan for this normally.
00:01:00.980 You know, you've got the analyst estimates.
00:01:02.360 You've got a little bit of a whisper number.
00:01:03.920 If they kind of come in a little bit above it, it's good news.
00:01:06.720 Everybody knows NVIDIA's numbers are going to be gigantic.
00:01:10.380 Is that a fair statement?
00:01:11.760 Yeah, it's not only a fair statement.
00:01:13.380 Back on the 28th, Jensen went at the GTC.
00:01:16.540 He basically gave us the playbook through the end of next year.
00:01:19.880 He said there's $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue.
00:01:22.720 If you take that, for his word, that they're going to be able to do that now, if they can get supply, that implies a 54% revenue growth rate for next year.
00:01:31.360 The street's at 41%.
00:01:32.980 Now, it's come up from 34 to 41.
00:01:35.400 But that's the gap, as I think about this, Brian, that's the gap between where they've set the bar on the 28th.
00:01:40.820 He gave us 54% revenue growth.
00:01:43.780 I don't know a lot about Wall Street, except I do know this.
00:01:47.440 54% ain't going to do it when it comes to the stock, is it?
00:01:50.040 It's going to have to be better than 54%, isn't it?
00:01:54.440 I don't think it needs to be better than 54 this week.
00:01:57.500 I think it needs to be better than the 41 where the street's at.
00:02:00.220 Yep.
00:02:01.340 And to Gene's point, look, we're just getting back from Asia being there three weeks.
00:02:05.480 Demand to supply for NVIDIA chips is 12 to 1.
00:02:09.520 So it comes down to there's one chip.
00:02:11.220 12 people want to order for every one potential chip that exists to order.
00:02:14.700 So there's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution.
00:02:18.900 And that's why it speaks to our view that anyone that talks about it all the time, anyone that talks about an AI bubble here, we are in the third inning of where this is all playing at.
00:02:28.800 And I think that's why this is an inflection point.
00:02:30.820 You're going to see ultimately what the demand looks like from Jensen himself.
00:02:34.880 And I view it as a bullish.
00:02:36.380 I mean, I was going to say, what do you think about his pink jacket?
00:02:38.540 But what do you think about, Jeff, what they're saying here?
00:02:40.940 I think, you know, it's a lot of words to basically say we have no freaking clue what's going to happen.
00:02:48.600 And what happens in all of these disruptive technological cycles is that, yes, the numbers look good until they don't, right?
00:02:54.940 Yeah.
00:02:55.200 It's a 12 to 1 demand to supply.
00:02:57.360 Well, one of these days, it'll be 11 to 1.
00:03:00.180 And then it'll be 10 to 1.
00:03:01.280 As all these companies reassess the numbers that are being thrown around, the amount of revenue that's just required to even have a prayer of breaking even.
00:03:08.500 And then let's talk about the products themselves.
00:03:11.120 It doesn't live up to the hype.
00:03:12.780 So where are you going to get the demand from to maintain that type of growth rate?
00:03:16.880 So the danger isn't necessarily that it's, you know, NVIDIA's earnings today won't be 61% or 62%.
00:03:23.820 It's whether or not we're actually seeing tangible results that actually match expectations.
00:03:28.620 Tom, your thoughts?
00:03:29.480 There's a lot of forward that's built into NVIDIA.
00:03:32.120 And what Jeff just said is correct.
00:03:34.540 But I'll tell you something else that people are looking at right now.
00:03:37.580 Rob, if you could really quick go find Cisco and go MAX.
00:03:42.000 Cisco MAX.
00:03:43.780 Yep.
00:03:44.460 The chart.
00:03:45.440 You're going to go to Cisco and MAX.
00:03:48.160 And then pull up NVIDIA MAX.
00:03:51.460 No, Cisco's earning chart.
00:03:52.740 Cisco's stock chart.
00:03:54.240 Yep.
00:03:55.760 Yep.
00:03:56.360 And go to MAX.
00:03:58.120 All right.
00:03:58.400 Let's see if you can find the dot-com bubble.
00:04:00.320 It's easy to see.
00:04:01.460 It's, you know, it's right there.
00:04:03.480 Now, let's go take a look at NVIDIA and go to NVIDIA stock chart and go MAX.
00:04:10.560 There you have it.
00:04:11.600 Yep.
00:04:11.960 NVIDIA's on the front end of Cisco.
00:04:14.260 What was Cisco?
00:04:15.540 Cisco had 70.
00:04:16.600 Go back to Cisco.
00:04:17.720 Cisco had 70% market share in 1999 of routers.
00:04:23.140 7-0.
00:04:24.620 And then they bought, they were given all the IBM patents, and IBM said, screw it.
00:04:28.940 I'm out of the router business, as the story goes.
00:04:31.140 And they were at 84% market share of routers at the beginning of 2000.
00:04:36.900 Oh, March 2000.
00:04:38.320 First quarter.
00:04:38.880 Go right there, right there, right there.
00:04:39.880 Yep.
00:04:40.220 Yep.
00:04:40.460 Yep.
00:04:40.640 Yep.
00:04:40.880 There you go.
00:04:41.460 First quarter, 2000.
00:04:42.840 That's what 80% market share in a brand new market.
00:04:45.620 Well, we need routers.
00:04:46.540 Routers have to be everywhere.
00:04:47.540 It's going to power the internet.
00:04:48.560 They have to interconnect to each other.
00:04:49.740 That's correct.
00:04:50.720 That's very, very correct.
00:04:51.860 Now go to NVIDIA.
00:04:53.500 And you have here the one guy with the Blackwell chips that's got massive market share.
00:04:59.560 This is what people are looking at when they say AI bubble.
00:05:02.380 These are not a bunch of bears running around like Elizabeth Warren, hoping the sky will fall
00:05:07.240 on capitalists.
00:05:08.260 These are people really looking at it and saying, wow, could this be an AI bubble the same way
00:05:12.600 we had an infrastructure bubble for the internet?
00:05:15.100 And if so, that's kind of tough.
00:05:17.660 What I look for after hours today is, do we head for an adjustment?
00:05:23.400 Not a crash, but do we come to an adjustment where PEs come back into a line with a little
00:05:29.260 bit of reality?
00:05:30.320 And the way you do that is forward forecast.
00:05:32.540 And if forward forecast doesn't say, and we have demand, what's demand?
00:05:36.260 They're going to ask, what is demand?
00:05:37.800 12 to 1, 13 to 1, 11 to 1.
00:05:40.060 If the demand's coming back, they'll say, well, demand softening.
00:05:42.580 Maybe now we've got all the chips ordered that we need for the data centers, even though
00:05:47.060 you still have to make them.
00:05:48.560 But we priced in all the profit of making those chips into that spike right here.
00:05:54.380 And what's their PE?
00:05:56.060 52?
00:05:57.480 That's not horrible.
00:05:58.580 Yeah, it was 52 yesterday.
00:06:00.000 But if you listen to CNBC, they'll tell you it's cheap.
00:06:01.720 Yeah, exactly right.
00:06:04.380 So what I think about NVIDIA today, take a breath.
00:06:08.540 It's going to be OK.
00:06:10.300 There could be, and by the way, the option volume is suggesting that there could be a
00:06:14.440 7% downward swing today in the price.
00:06:18.160 And if that happens, how will the market react?
00:06:20.260 The market react badly because what was NVIDIA's peak three weeks ago?
00:06:25.600 2.08 or 2.10?
00:06:29.320 2.08.
00:06:30.400 2.07.
00:06:31.720 I think interday, there was like a 208.
00:06:34.060 So and now we're down at 186.
00:06:38.060 So we're 20 points down, 10% down.
00:06:42.360 Another 7% would be 17%.
00:06:44.660 That is a very typical correction.
00:06:47.540 Yesterday at Goldman Sachs event, people talked about you get 15% correction in a hot, frothy
00:06:53.500 market is not unusual.
00:06:55.300 And then they say you grow into your pants, right?
00:06:58.580 Now your pants are kind of baggy because the prices come down.
00:07:02.420 But now through sales, dominance, market share, you grow back into your pants.
00:07:07.380 And so it's a really big thing.
00:07:09.260 Just like they said today, it is the Super Bowl.
00:07:11.820 And it's going to determine whether we have like a Merry Christmas or where we have a managed
00:07:16.780 Christmas.
00:07:17.280 And what I mean by that is, does the market begin to make a little bit of adjustment?
00:07:20.980 And then people have to say, okay, maybe I'm a little more cash for the fourth quarter.
00:07:24.980 Maybe I'm this.
00:07:25.580 This will be normal things that happen, but there'll be a lot of, look, the liberal media
00:07:30.340 wants to see an adjustment so they can say, I told you it was a bubble.
00:07:34.080 All these Wall Street bastards, you know, now they're taking it, you know, and these guys
00:07:38.380 just lost $2 billion.
00:07:39.740 They didn't, they lost that on paper on, on net worth and stuff.
00:07:43.140 And so one way you're going to have, I think a flat, slightly up response and the other way
00:07:49.340 you have a down response.
00:07:50.700 But I don't see that we have NVIDIA saves the world like they did last summer.
00:07:55.620 Yeah.
00:07:55.920 So I have a whole follow-up question, but I'm going to come to you to see if you have a
00:07:59.280 different take on this.
00:08:00.240 Yeah.
00:08:00.640 And I got a follow-up for you guys.
00:08:01.820 Go ahead, Brandon.
00:08:02.500 Yeah.
00:08:02.700 I think the entirety of not only just the stock market, but the entire U.S. economy looks
00:08:07.720 well on the outside looking in because of the AI, I guess, bubble, because of the like
00:08:12.760 national flywheel that has all these giant seven companies spending money hand over fist
00:08:18.020 on these chips from NVIDIA and probably because they're competing to create the best AI product
00:08:23.180 and like that's what the data centers are for.
00:08:24.860 But like, that's like the sole reason that the economy looks good right now.
00:08:28.080 I think that the actual main street is doing much worse than the stock market.
00:08:32.080 But I think that if NVIDIA takes a dive, the entire market takes a dive because it's probably
00:08:36.040 what, like eight or 9% of the S&P right now?
00:08:39.020 Yeah.
00:08:39.400 And what is eight or 9% of the S&P?
00:08:41.540 NVIDIA.
00:08:42.180 Oh, so NVIDIA is eight or 9%.
00:08:44.160 But the question I was going to ask all three of you guys is this year, S&P 500 rate of
00:08:50.060 return is roughly 13 to 14%, give or take, right?
00:08:57.180 Do you know what percentage of the S&P 500 is the max seven companies?
00:09:01.440 And it's kind of max six.
00:09:02.900 28.
00:09:03.600 Huh?
00:09:03.880 28.
00:09:04.480 35 to 37%.
00:09:06.500 Yep.
00:09:07.560 Seven companies represent nearly 40%.
00:09:11.280 That's why they're talking about it being a Super Bowl because it's the only team
00:09:13.700 playing.
00:09:14.220 Well, but this is the scary part though, right there.
00:09:16.160 If you look at it at 35 to 38%, the seven companies, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta,
00:09:21.580 Microsoft, NVIDIA, and then Tesla.
00:09:22.780 So the question is, are these stocks representative of the economy?
00:09:26.040 That's the question, yes.
00:09:26.640 The overall system?
00:09:27.400 Or are they representative of just this neural segment?
00:09:29.380 So a fellow on Manect is asking me a question yesterday, and I told him, I said, we're going
00:09:33.360 to talk about it on the podcast.
00:09:34.460 So he's getting the preview on this.
00:09:38.300 So S&P's up 13%, 14%.
00:09:41.800 Market's doing great.
00:09:43.780 You take seven out, it's a very different story, right?
00:09:47.540 So what is the market doing?
00:09:49.480 How is the market doing?
00:09:51.000 What's the market looking like when it comes down to wanting to, you know, buy properties,
00:09:56.480 you know, other industries, hotels?
00:10:00.020 You know, you're seeing some data coming out that just doesn't make any sense in certain
00:10:04.260 other industries.
00:10:04.900 So how bad are things outside of MAX 7?
00:10:08.140 Jeff, I'll come to first.
00:10:09.080 Yeah, that's the market you want to look at is not stocks.
00:10:11.640 Stocks are somewhat their own reality.
00:10:14.060 The market you want to look at for economic fundamentals is bonds, interest rates, shapes
00:10:17.780 of curves and things like that, esoteric indications.
00:10:20.620 But I will say for the stock market, I know we want to get into this a little bit later,
00:10:23.940 Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, is sort of a proxy for general risk taking.
00:10:29.100 With Bitcoin being crushed over the last couple of weeks, it suggests that there is a growing
00:10:33.880 anxiety about a whole bunch of topics I think we'll get into here that's not just related
00:10:38.380 to NVIDIA and what their demand versus supply numbers are.
00:10:41.460 It's the overall environment.
00:10:42.960 Has the AI bubble gone too far?
00:10:45.300 And what will that do to the overall economy if it does start to falter here?
00:10:48.380 What are the underlying mechanics in the economy itself?
00:10:50.760 And does that actually, does that lead to the marketplace, the financial marketplace looking
00:10:56.340 to take more risks in things like buying stocks or investing in real economy projects?
00:11:01.140 Because I know we were talking about this a little bit.
00:11:03.260 You're right.
00:11:03.940 The mainstream situation is not like it is in what you see in NVIDIA and AI.
00:11:09.520 You just look at the consumer, the consumer staple stocks, for example.
00:11:13.000 They are huge laggards to the rest of the market.
00:11:14.880 Yes, they're up.
00:11:15.800 They're not up nearly as much.
00:11:17.240 So the overall, that's why I think Bitcoin in particular is useful as a proxy for the
00:11:22.860 marginal risk taker in the marketplace.
00:11:25.160 And that one has turned decisively ugly over the last couple of weeks.
00:11:28.420 Okay.
00:11:28.700 If you got big plans for 2026, I am telling you right now, I can't tell you how many
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00:11:34.360 There's a reason why we went less than 22 hours to Dallas and come back because we want
00:11:39.320 to see exactly what's happening with 2026.
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00:11:44.560 And if 2026 is a big year for you as well, I want you to watch this clip.
00:11:47.780 Rob, can you go to the clip with the Jenga to show them what happens when it comes on to
00:11:52.760 business plan and how all of these things are necessary?
00:11:55.660 Go ahead, Rob.
00:11:56.780 Business is a lot like Jenga.
00:11:58.540 Every piece matters.
00:12:00.620 You need a vision.
00:12:02.280 Just carefully.
00:12:04.320 Ooh, fool, fool.
00:12:05.360 You need capital.
00:12:06.760 You definitely need capital.
00:12:07.820 Let's put this here.
00:12:09.980 Ooh, listen, hanging on a one piece here, by the way.
00:12:12.480 You need the right team.
00:12:14.120 For sure.
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00:12:16.300 You need sales.
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00:12:25.060 what happens?
00:12:30.080 The whole thing crumbles.
00:12:31.300 If you have big plans for 2026, on December 12th, I'm hosting an event called the Business
00:12:40.020 Planning Workshop, where all day we go through the 12 building blocks of writing an effective
00:12:46.240 business plan.
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