＂Oil Could Be 5 Cents A Barrel!＂ - Trump’s Tiny Car Pitch TRIGGERS Energy Reform FIRESTORM
Episode Stats
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Summary
Trump wants to build tiny cars in America, but what are they going to look like? And how will they compare to the Japanese cars that he wants to make? And what are the problems with them? Today, Dan and Adam talk about it all.
Transcript
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The one thing that I like, are you following this tiny car thing closely?
00:00:04.060
Are you following that closely, Tom, on what's going on with the tiny car?
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If you just go back and type in tiny car and go to news.
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The third one says Trump's tiny car dream has problems.
00:00:28.340
You see that Japanese Kai cars that he's talking about?
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Honestly, when you're younger, you don't really care about what they look like.
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You're trying to find the thing that you can afford, right?
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Like even what you want and what you can afford are two different things.
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Look what happened with car regulation in America, okay?
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Gas went from 30 cents to a dollar in a decade.
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Reagan comes out with something called the CAFE.
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The regulation, which stands for corporate average fuel economy under Reagan that he came up with this, you know, issues on how to address this.
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So then there was a couple different things that we looked at during that time.
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This led to, through 2008, 2011, 2012, they came up with new emission standards that the bigger the car was, the easier it was for your car to get approved on the emission standards that we had.
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I don't know if you have this chart or not, Rob.
00:01:48.120
And let me send you Trump's tweet on tiny cars.
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This is so interesting for all of us to be looking at because I think this is at least something that they're doing.
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All the three ones, one of them is this tweet, and then it's the pictures of the emission standard cars and how ridiculous it is, what we've done to the market with cars.
00:02:07.160
We have incentivized companies to build bigger cars.
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Now, an 11-foot car, a small sedan right now is 12 1⁄2 to 13 1⁄2 feet, okay?
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Then you have trucks that go from 13 1⁄2 to 16 1⁄2 feet, and then you have the SUVs that go 18 1⁄2,
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and you have the bigger trucks that can go all the way up to 22 feet.
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And they do this because car companies like Ford are sitting there saying,
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hey, man, this is allowing us to build bigger cars.
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Bigger cars allow us to go with lower standard emissions that we have in place, and we're making a shit ton of money.
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75% of registrations of cars today, Dan, are either SUVs or trucks.
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Plus, 75% of cars being registered in 2024 are SUVs or trucks.
00:03:05.100
The automatic, they're like, hell, yeah, let's keep doing this, right?
00:03:08.000
That one right there, Rob, if you can make that one bigger.
00:03:18.260
The bigger the car, you see the footprint up top and a miles per gallon.
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The smaller the car, the more miles per gallon it needs to have.
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But the bigger the car, the less mile per gallon it needs to have that it gets approved.
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So they're sitting there saying, you know, here's what we're going to be doing.
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You know, Ford's going to say, guys, keep doing this because we're selling cars and car prices are going to $50,000.
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We're making a ton of money selling these trucks.
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And then Trump comes out with this saying, I have just approved.
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Manufacturers have long wanted to do this just like they are successfully built in other countries.
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They can be propelled by gasoline, electric, or hybrid.
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These cars of the very near future are inexpensive, safe, fuel efficient, and quite simply amazing.
00:04:06.460
This was inspired by a car called the Topolino.
00:04:18.320
And it gives you, fastest it goes is 28 miles an hour.
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And so then the argument on why these things they're not fans of, the other argument on the regulation is America has the widest lanes.
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Because we had so many accidents that was taking place.
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Because in Europe, cars go like this because their lanes are very tight.
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If you notice the roads in Europe, you go to Italy.
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And they're like, this is the dumbest thing to do in Italy when you ran Escalades.
00:05:01.640
Vinny has to get out of the car and come back, do this.
00:05:03.780
We're doing all the old school Middle Eastern stuff.
00:05:10.540
In America, they build wider lanes, fewer accidents.
00:05:15.840
So to me, this could be a major opportunity for some automakers to come out and say, I'm
00:05:25.640
Maybe we go back to a $10,000 car, $15,000 car new, $5,000 car used.
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Some of these cars looking like this, by the way, Rob, if you want to make it bigger.
00:05:34.520
I think it has to be something to do with homes where they live, rent and house, something
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But there needs to be actual solutions of what to do.
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Because I didn't know about the EPA thing right there.
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They say add an extra 20%, 30% of the price of a house.
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And then with that, that's obviously jacking up the price of it.
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And so the solution to it is to make it more feasible to build more of it, make it create
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circumstances in which it's profitable for the producers to build more of it.
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But they've put policies in place that make it more expensive to build things.
00:06:13.260
There's no reason that lumber and steel and electronics, all the inputs of cars and houses
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So if we get the policies to make those things cheaper, then they could build more of them.
00:06:28.560
I'm going to come to you with this one, Dan, because a part of these new emission standards
00:06:33.360
that Biden was pitching, that by 27, 2035, they want to get to certain levels, and they
00:06:38.360
want to lower gas-powered cars, and they want to increase hybrid-driven cars.
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And that model is kind of these regulations are preventing people from building cheaper
00:07:01.660
So far, none of you have talked about the higher death rate in these cars.
00:07:06.420
And there was a study in the UK four or five years ago that you had a less than 50% chance
00:07:11.980
of surviving ahead on accident in these little things.
00:07:14.940
And so a lot of the countries, especially Germany, who used to build tanks, backed off it.
00:07:23.020
And so environmentally, the gig is that right now, the American Petroleum Institute says we
00:07:34.860
have, let's say, 15 trillion barrels of reserves around the world, OK?
00:07:40.620
And that's probably off by a factor of at least three to five, because countries like Saudi Arabia,
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countries like Kuwait, who I had a 10-year relationship with, Venezuela, all don't cheat the numbers,
00:07:54.640
The Aramco, which is Saudi Arabia, basically, tried to go public for 25 years and couldn't go public.
00:08:00.740
They went to NASDAQ, New York Stock Exchange, Hong Kong, Beijing, et cetera.
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Nobody would take them public, because to go public, they had to have a reserve report,
00:08:09.100
meaning they have to have, by Ryder Scott, or one of the big engineering companies,
00:08:12.800
to say how much oil you really have, how much is producing oil.
00:08:18.600
So finally, Saudi, the kingdom, decided, well, we'll go public in Saudi.
00:08:25.940
So they made all government employees mandatory that they had to buy 50 shares or 350 shares
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And so they only sold or took two or three percent of Aramco public,
00:08:38.300
and they had more than a trillion dollar valuation.
00:08:40.920
If you knew, this audience knew, how many barrels of oil reserves were really in the world,
00:08:49.700
in my estimation, oil would be five cents a barrel.
00:08:53.940
Because there's 10, 20, 30 times more oil reserves,
00:08:57.000
and they keep coming up with secondary and tertiary methodologies to extract the oil.
00:09:01.200
For example, the North Sea, Bob Dyke, who was my partner when I went public many years ago,
00:09:08.820
And he said there's going to, at that time, it was only supposed to last 20 years.
00:09:12.400
So by the year from 79 to 2000, North Sea should be done.
00:09:16.720
Well, the North Sea's still got 50, 60, 70 years left because of all the oil reserves that are still there.
00:09:22.460
Okay, and so, but those cars, you wouldn't want,
00:09:26.820
I normally say you wouldn't want your wife driving that car.
00:09:43.760
You know, my God, I don't want to see those accidents.
00:09:48.600
I've been driving Rolls since 71, when I was a senior in college.
00:09:58.060
It was 30, Silver Cloud was 35 grand at the time.
00:10:01.580
I scraped a three grand because I was in sales.
00:10:03.720
The other guys were driving town cars, Eldorado Cadillacs.
00:10:09.120
And my sales manager, who was a biased, racist guy, a lawyer from Mississippi, said,
00:10:14.940
Pena, young boy, like you ought to be able to sell everybody that walks through the door.
00:10:19.580
But you've got to differentiate yourself from the other salesmen.
00:10:22.320
The other salesmen were driving Cadillacs and Continentals.
00:10:36.280
Yeah, I'm a three-wheels family now, and I haven't been for a long, long time.
00:10:49.680
John Morgan from Morgan & Morgan was here a few days ago.
00:10:53.140
He lands on the airport, and then he asks his driver,
00:10:55.840
So, driver, how long do we have left until we get to the office?
00:11:04.120
That's a fantastic point you bring up about the oil.
00:11:06.900
And I've been meaning to show these two charts on the podcast for a while.
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These are the biggest oil reserves in the world.
00:11:18.440
You know, the U.S. is way down at the bottom there.
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But then if you go to production, U.S. is producing the most.
00:11:22.860
So, imagine if we got the full potential of oil production out of those largest reserves in the world.
00:11:27.200
Yeah, there's an abundance of oil that we're not using.
00:11:31.220
Venezuela's number one in the amount it's sitting on.
00:11:35.200
But production, you don't see it in the top ten.
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You need a working power plant to turn on a refinery.
00:11:48.020
But then, is it holding back, or is it because the U.S. has put sanctions on Venezuela?
00:12:02.880
Because they know that someday, irrespective of what Elon Musk says, someday that oil is going to be worth its weight in gold, pun intended.
00:12:13.860
But the real, the big money, the guys like you, they're investing in water.
00:12:20.220
That much water will cost more than a barrel of oil 15, 20 years from now.
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The big money, this is what they're investing in.
00:12:29.160
But, I mean, so, but, and it's producing reserves are the ones that they normally use.
00:12:35.080
But in Saudi Arabia, it costs about $1.40 to get a barrel of oil from under the ground to the surface.
00:12:49.320
In the Gulf of America, formerly the Gulf of Mexico, it costs about $120.
00:13:00.700
Because you can pick up the oil with your hand.
00:13:04.400
When J. Paul Gideon found it all in Saudi Arabia back in the late 20s, early 30s, he was looking for water.
00:13:10.000
And there's this ugly black shit that kept coming out, the Bedouins out there.
00:13:17.360
And then he, you know, of course, and then he got rich as, and then he wouldn't pay ransom for his kid or grandson.
00:13:25.460
He wouldn't pay for his kid a million bucks each.
00:13:31.720
So you got a lot of people to cut their ears off of, was his comment.
00:13:39.060
And quick thing on that, too, and tell me if you would agree with this.
00:13:41.540
I think the scariest thing in the world for oil companies is oil going below $60 a barrel.
00:13:51.620
So I think they have a vested interest, too, in withholding that oil and not opening up Venezuela's oil.
00:13:59.000
Well, you compare United States to Saudi, it's not even close in terms of production.
00:14:06.840
Texas actually is a bigger economy, produces more oil than Saudi.
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So people, oh, Saudi, all these countries that are producing oil.
00:14:23.600
Regarding tiny cars, my opinion is the average American dude does not want a tiny car.
00:14:29.000
The average American person should not get a 50-year mortgage.
00:14:32.080
Just because Trump throws things out there, it's bombastic.
00:14:34.980
At the big, beautiful bill, there's going to be recalibration.
00:14:39.380
Listen, if you're Jean-Claude in Paris, go get yourself a tiny car.
00:14:43.660
If you're Giuseppe in Italy, go get yourself a tiny car.
00:14:47.020
If you're in America and your name's Rick, you want a Ford F-150.
00:14:52.340
I used to drive these little tiny cars around Miami.
00:14:55.300
Before Uber hit Miami in 2012, 2013, right around that time, 2014, Miami dropped off,
00:15:02.140
I think, a thousand of these cars all over the city.
00:15:04.620
And you would tap it when you would go in, and you'd use it for five minutes at a time.
00:15:09.860
You do not want to drive these cars on the highway.
00:15:13.200
You drive it to Miami, to Lincoln Road, whatever.
00:15:16.780
It's kind of like just renting a bike, but it's a little tiny car.
00:15:21.780
Do not get a car like this if you actually want to get laid.
00:15:26.780
Now, I had a girl at the time, so it wasn't a big deal.
00:15:31.340
So you're saying there's no room to jump into the non-existent backseat?
00:15:36.800
But don't guys still get cars as chick magnets?
00:15:47.620
I didn't even think about the backseat angle, but...
00:15:54.600
You're not going to have a hard time with that.
00:15:59.100
We love Christmas, and our Christmas merch is officially out.
00:16:02.960
And the hat that we couldn't keep, a single one of these.
00:16:19.680
And people were buying it as Christmas gifts for others, and then they were sending it
00:16:27.020
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00:16:45.920
If you want to go to this one, Rob, this Christmas on the bottom right.
00:16:53.920
Folks, look at our models wearing their, and these come with a nice, look at this.
00:17:04.980
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00:17:10.520
Forget about the socks Vinny's wearing that made it in there.
00:17:17.380
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00:17:28.720
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00:17:57.020
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