Valuetainment - Professor Who Predicted a Trump Win in 2016 Now Predicts a Biden Win in 2020

00:00:00.160 The hardest thing about being a forecaster,

00:00:02.760 it's not knowing history, although you got to know history.

00:00:04.960 It's not knowing politics, or you got to know politics.

00:00:07.340 It's not knowing math, although you got to know math.

00:00:09.340 It's putting aside your own political preferences.

00:00:13.880 You're obviously a Democrat.

00:00:15.680 You said Trump would win in 2016

00:00:18.100 when people thought you were crazy for choosing Trump.

00:00:20.240 It was extremely unpopular.

00:00:21.900 I did get a note and it said,

00:00:23.840 Professor, congrats, good call, Donald J. Trump.

00:00:27.720 You want to see it?

00:00:28.560 You got it, let me see it.

00:00:30.480 There it is.

00:00:31.500 So let's talk about the 13th.

00:00:33.020 It's what we call a very robust model

00:00:35.360 that's lasted through enormous change.

00:00:37.320 The Civil War, the Great Depression, World War II.

00:00:40.820 We just looked at patterns.

00:00:42.080 It's brilliant when you think about it.

00:00:43.780 Judgments here have to be objective and nonpartisan.

00:00:47.160 All I need to do is say true or false.

00:00:49.120 So if it's false, that's one key against them.

00:00:51.780 The party mandate, which side do you choose with that?

00:00:53.840 No primary contest, incumbency, third party,

00:00:57.160 short-term economy, long-term economy,

00:00:59.360 seven is policy change, social unrest,

00:01:02.380 scandal number nine, foreign military failure,

00:01:05.500 challenger's charisma, which is Biden,

00:01:07.420 incumbent charisma.

00:01:08.920 That one I count as false.

00:01:11.420 You've got to have charisma for advertisers to say,

00:01:14.880 Mike, what's your track record of predicting elections?

00:01:16.880 Come on.

00:01:19.480 The most important thing you have as president

00:01:21.680 is your credibility.

00:01:23.060 And the rest is history.

00:01:28.080 So my guest today is a historian.

00:01:30.120 And on top of that, he got his PhD from Harvard

00:01:32.460 and wrote a couple books.

00:01:33.460 He's read many of them, but he wrote a couple books.

00:01:36.080 One was called The Keys to the White House.

00:01:38.380 And the other one recently, the title is The Case for Impeachment.

00:01:41.780 In his book, he met a Russian man, which I'll let him tell you the whole story,

00:01:46.300 that helped him come out with a model based on three indicators

00:01:49.900 to determine who can win the White House.

00:01:52.540 And since 1984, every single time he's got it right,

00:01:57.620 and it's not one-sided, it was five Republicans, four Democrats.

00:02:01.260 Even though he's a Democrat, he'll tell you up front,

00:02:03.580 he still chose five Republicans and four Democrats.

00:02:06.180 So he's on a nine-game winning streak.

00:02:08.700 And with that being said, my guest today, Alan Lichtman.

00:02:11.980 Alan, thank you so much for being a guest on Valuetainment.

00:02:14.420 My great pleasure.

00:02:15.940 So, Alan, how do you and this friend of yours that you met, tell us that story.

00:02:21.220 How did this happen to come up with these 13 indicators?

00:02:24.660 Yeah, I'd love to tell you I came up with them with my brilliant thinking.

00:02:28.900 But if I were to tell you that, to quote the late, not-so-great Richard Nixon,

00:02:33.620 that would be wrong.

00:02:35.780 In 1981, I was a distinguished visiting scholar at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

00:02:43.700 And there I met the Russian, Vladimir Kailas Borak, the world's leading authority on earthquake prediction,

00:02:52.260 the head of the Institute of Pattern Recognition and Earthquake Prediction in Moscow.

00:02:57.300 And he suggested we collaborate.

00:03:00.340 And being foresightful, of course, I said, we're not going to collaborate.

00:03:04.980 Earthquakes may be a big deal here in Washington, D.C., but I have to go back, excuse me, in Southern California,

00:03:10.660 but I have to go back to Washington, D.C.

00:03:12.740 Nobody cares about earthquakes.

00:03:14.420 That's right.

00:03:14.820 You know, I teach at American University.

00:03:16.900 And he said, I don't want to do earthquakes.

00:03:20.580 I already solved that.

00:03:21.540 You're right.

00:03:22.100 Get this.

00:03:23.060 He said in 1963, under President John F. Kennedy, he was part of the Soviet scientific delegation

00:03:32.020 that negotiated the most important treaty in the history of the world, by far, the nuclear test ban treaty

00:03:39.860 that stopped us from poisoning the atmosphere, the oceans, and the earth.

00:03:44.900 And he said, I fell in love with politics.

00:03:47.940 And I always wanted to use the methods of earthquake prediction to predict elections.

00:03:53.300 But he said, look, I live in the Soviet Union.

00:03:56.260 Elections?

00:03:57.780 Forget it.

00:03:58.580 It's supreme leader or off with your head.

00:04:02.340 But you know all about elections.

00:04:05.620 So we became the odd couple of political research.

00:04:10.820 And I can tell you what happened after that, if you want to know.

00:04:13.780 I want to know about it.

00:04:14.820 Tell me.

00:04:15.620 OK, so our key insight was to reconceptualize presidential elections in earthquake geophysical

00:04:25.140 terms.

00:04:25.940 Remember, this is 1981.

00:04:28.420 Not as Carter versus Reagan, not as Republican versus Democrat, not as liberal versus conservative,

00:04:36.100 but as stability, the party in power keeps the White House and earthquake, the party in power

00:04:44.820 is turned out.

00:04:46.740 So the second big insight was we were going to base our model on the idea that American

00:04:55.540 presidential elections are essentially votes up or down on the strength and performance of

00:05:01.860 the party holding the White House.

00:05:03.780 Should we give them four more years?

00:05:05.540 And so based on those two ideas, we looked at every American presidential election from 1860,

00:05:12.740 the horse and buggy days of politics, when Abraham Lincoln was elected, to 1980, the modern

00:05:18.820 era when Ronald Reagan was elected.

00:05:20.980 And using the methods of pattern recognition to see what patterns are associated with stability

00:05:27.700 in earthquake, we came up with our 13 key indicators, the 13 keys to the White House, and our simple

00:05:35.700 decision rule.

00:05:37.700 If six or more of the keys go against the party holding the White House, they are predicted losers.

00:05:45.460 Any six.

00:05:46.820 It's a nonlinear system.

00:05:49.300 I then first used the keys, if you want to hear about that next, in 1982 to make my first

00:05:56.820 advance prediction.

00:05:58.500 And you made that two years before the election.

00:06:01.060 I mean, it wasn't like you made the prediction three months prior to the election.

00:06:05.620 In 82, you made your prediction, nobody was expecting that.

00:06:08.660 Nobody.

00:06:09.160 It was in April of 1982, almost three years before the election.

00:06:13.380 You know, two and a half years before the election.

00:06:16.660 And I predicted the reelection of Ronald Reagan.

00:06:19.620 Now, mind you, I am a Democrat.

00:06:21.460 And I'm very clear that my predictions are predictions, not endorsements.

00:06:25.380 You've always been a Democrat.

00:06:26.660 This is not like you change parties.

00:06:28.180 You've always been a Democrat.

00:06:29.380 I've always been a Democrat.

00:06:30.740 You know, I went to Brandeis University in the 1960s, hotbed of radicalism.

00:06:36.180 And I was a Bobby Kennedy Democrat then, which put me on the way on the right wing back in

00:06:42.580 the 60s.

00:06:43.380 I'm still a Bobby Kennedy Democrat, which I guess puts me now on the left.

00:06:47.060 It's very strange what happens at any rate.

00:06:49.460 So I predicted Ronald Reagan's reelection in the midst of what was then the worst recession

00:06:56.420 since the Great Depression.

00:06:57.700 Everyone was talking about a one term president.

00:07:02.500 And it caught someone's attention.

00:07:04.180 I get a call in my office in 1982 from a gentleman with a heavy southern accent.

00:07:11.860 And he says, Professor Lickman, this is Lee Atwater calling political director of the

00:07:17.860 Ronald Reagan White House.

00:07:19.620 We want you to come to the White House.

00:07:22.020 So I said, well, maybe maybe you got the wrong guy.

00:07:23.940 You know, I kind of like George McGovern.

00:07:25.540 He says, no, we know who you are.

00:07:27.300 So I go to the White House.

00:07:28.980 And Lee Atwater is a brilliant guy. 0.93

00:07:30.740 Dirty trickster who actually died very young and recanted all his dirty tricks.

00:07:36.340 And he wanted to know about Kennedy versus Nixon and other elections. 0.92

00:07:40.180 But at the end of the day, he looked me in the eye and asked me the question, which was

00:07:44.020 really why he brought me there.

00:07:45.380 He said, Professor Lickman, what would happen if Ronald Reagan didn't run again in 1984?

00:07:52.980 A reasonable question for a man in his 70s.

00:07:56.820 And I'm thinking, oh, the damage.

00:07:58.420 No, I'll give it to you straight.

00:07:59.860 Remember, six keys and you're out.

00:08:02.340 Right now, I predicted a Reagan win with only three keys against him.

00:08:06.980 But look what happens if he doesn't run again.

00:08:09.140 You lose the incumbency key.

00:08:11.140 You lose the internal party contest key because Bush and Robertson and Kemp will fight like

00:08:17.060 crazy.

00:08:17.460 And without the gipper, you lose the incumbent charisma key. 0.70

00:08:22.020 You know, George Bush, charismatic.

00:08:24.340 He's about as charismatic as a shopping center on a Sunday morning in Passaic, New Jersey,

00:08:30.020 you know.

00:08:31.460 So you go from a sure win to a sure loss.

00:08:33.300 Lee Atwater looks me in the eye, sighs a big relief and says, thank you so much, Professor

00:08:40.820 Lickman.

00:08:42.180 And the rest is history.

00:08:43.460 That was how I first got into the prediction business.

00:08:48.420 Yeah.

00:08:48.740 And I see this.

00:08:49.380 You started off with Reagan.

00:08:50.580 Then you went Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush, Obama, Obama, Trump, Biden.

00:08:54.100 And I think at one point you had the only thing that was a little bit off was the Al Gore one,

00:08:58.740 right?

00:08:59.060 2000, exactly.

00:09:00.820 You know, what was the right prediction in 2000?

00:09:03.060 There wasn't one.

00:09:03.780 I predicted Gore would win the popular vote.

00:09:06.260 He then loses Florida by 537 votes.

00:09:09.940 It was a stolen election, as I proved in my 2001 report to the Distinguished United States

00:09:16.900 Commission on Civil Rights.

00:09:18.100 It's still on their website.

00:09:19.540 And as other scholars have proven, Bush only won that election because of the discarding and

00:09:26.260 suppression of tens of thousands of African-American votes who are 95 percent Democratic.

00:09:32.500 A Gore should have won even the Electoral College going away. 0.95

00:09:37.620 So I think I came about as close as you can get.

00:09:40.020 You know, if I predicted Bush, people would be bashing me for saying, oh, you predicted Bush,

00:09:44.980 but I only won because he stole the election.

00:09:46.820 You know, an impossible election to call.

00:09:49.140 Makes sense.

00:09:49.860 Now, here's a question for you.

00:09:51.220 This is just off topic.

00:09:53.220 When you went back with Vladimir and you ran this from 1860 to 1980, how bad did Reagan beat

00:09:59.140 Carter on his first turn?

00:10:00.260 Because I know it was 49 out of 50 states when you ran it on the 13.

00:10:03.780 Do you remember what it was when it was him against Carter?

00:10:06.500 Yes, it was, I think, eight or nine keys out against Carter.

00:10:10.180 I remember Carter was the incumbent and the polls were inconclusive.

00:10:13.940 Sure.

00:10:14.260 The polls weren't telling you what was going to happen.

00:10:17.460 And Reagan wound up winning by 10 points.

00:10:19.620 It wasn't quite the blowout in 1984, but it was a pretty bad blowout.

00:10:26.180 But no one since 1984 has won by 10 points.

00:10:30.340 And he also overwhelmingly won the electoral college.

00:10:33.460 Yeah, 1984 was the one where, you know, he wasn't really going out there and campaigning

00:10:37.700 again.

00:10:38.420 Everybody was kind of like, he's going to win it no matter what.

00:10:40.580 And then last minute, his people are telling him, listen, you better get out there and

00:10:43.380 campaign or else you could lose this one.

00:10:45.460 And then he got to work.

00:10:46.580 But it's interesting seeing how it was.

00:10:48.740 By the way, out of all the indicators you guys went through, you and Vladimir, was there

00:10:52.340 anything that was swept?

00:10:53.780 Did anybody get swept 13 for 13 or no?

00:10:56.900 Once.

00:10:57.700 Who?

00:10:58.020 And that was retrospective.

00:11:00.980 Teddy Roosevelt, Theodore Roosevelt in 1904, he was the incumbent.

00:11:06.420 He had become president when William McKinley was killed, assassinated.

00:11:10.660 And he had a perfect score, no keys out against him.

00:11:14.660 And he was running against the most obscure presidential candidate in history.

00:11:20.420 Someone no one has ever heard of, Alton B. Parker, who was a New York State judge who

00:11:26.740 was never heard from again.

00:11:30.740 All kinds of stories here.

00:11:32.180 It's not just, you know, you predict something and that's it.

00:11:36.420 Exactly.

00:11:36.820 I wonder if there was a sweep.

00:11:38.340 And I figured Reagan first time against Carter would probably be a good one as well.

00:11:41.780 So, so let's talk about the 13.

00:11:43.380 When you guys came up with the 13, did you originally, was it kind of like, like I visualize

00:11:48.260 you sitting in a boardroom, you and Vladimir, you're talking and you got 30 of them.

00:11:52.260 And he say, not this one, not this one, not this one.

00:11:54.580 Did you guys go from 30 to 13?

00:11:56.420 Or was it no, 13 is what you came up with.

00:11:58.980 No, you got it right.

00:11:59.780 I don't remember exactly how many, but it was, it was somewhere like 30, 25.

00:12:04.340 And the computer, you know, we're doing pattern recognition.

00:12:08.900 Most models are so-called, I don't know how much you want me to get into the weeds on this,

00:12:14.740 multiple regression models, big equations with parameters.

00:12:18.580 We didn't do it that way.

00:12:19.940 We just looked at patterns.

00:12:21.380 And the computer came up with the number of keys and the decision rule that best separated

00:12:28.180 stability incumbent winds from earthquakes.

00:12:32.020 So we windowed it down to 13.

00:12:33.780 And you know what we did?

00:12:34.820 We published it like two academics in an academic journal, the world's leading scientific journal

00:12:42.740 of all things, the journal of the United States National Academy of Sciences.

00:12:47.220 And you expect, oh, at least four or five people to read your journal article when you're an academic.

00:12:52.820 But six people read it.

00:12:54.740 And the sixth person was the science reporter for the Associated Press.

00:12:59.300 And I opened my newspaper.

00:13:00.660 I'm back at American University, young college professor.

00:13:03.940 And there is this article, Odd Couple Discovers Keys to the White House.

00:13:10.180 And it was only that article that motivated me to get out into the wider world outside of academia

00:13:17.780 and become a predictor.

00:13:20.900 You know, you know what I'm curious about?

00:13:22.260 I'm curious about out of the other, you know, 12 or 17 that didn't make it,

00:13:27.300 how many of them had to do with facts?

00:13:29.940 How many of them had to do with the candidate?

00:13:31.860 Because, you know, out of the year 13, two is only about candidates.

00:13:34.100 The other 11 is just you can pretty much measure it.

00:13:36.900 And the last two is about candidates.

00:13:39.300 Yeah.

00:13:39.700 For example, we had some keys relating to candidate ideology and candidate fundraising.

00:13:45.460 Turns out ideology fundraising issues are absolutely non-predictive.

00:13:53.220 If you had used that in 2016, you would have predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide because

00:13:58.980 on conventional candidate measures, she's way ahead of Donald Trump.

00:14:03.380 Did looks or voice have anything to do with it?

00:14:06.020 The only reason I asked the question about looks or voice is because you remember the

00:14:10.020 first time when Kennedy and Nixon got on the debate?

00:14:12.820 Yeah.

00:14:13.220 And it was on TV and Nixon hadn't shaved.

00:14:15.620 He had the four o'clock shave.

00:14:16.740 And, you know, Kennedy went to the tanning salon the day before.

00:14:19.460 He looked really good and looked better on camera than he did on radio.

00:14:23.540 Was voice or looks, did that have anything to do with it or no?

00:14:27.220 Absolutely not.

00:14:27.940 It had nothing to do with it.

00:14:29.940 You know, was Richard Nixon better looking than George McGovern or, you know,

00:14:35.940 Hewitt Humphrey?

00:14:36.820 Richard Nixon was not exactly your great looking, you know, great sounding candidate,

00:14:41.460 but he won election twice.

00:14:43.380 I only say that because Kennedy was a, you know, if you ask the ladies and you do a poll

00:14:47.300 on the ladies with Kennedy, it'd be a 100% handsome looking guy right there.

00:14:51.780 Well, something does come into play there and we can talk about it when we get to the keys,

00:14:55.780 to the two candidate keys.

00:14:57.140 And Kennedy is one of my models for that.

00:15:00.180 Okay, so why don't we go through the 13?

00:15:02.180 Do you want to take the lead or you want me to read them off?

00:15:04.740 You read them off.

00:15:05.620 It's probably easier to go back and forth.

00:15:07.220 I got them right here for me.

00:15:08.180 So I'll go through all of them here, what you have.

00:15:10.660 So these are the 13 different indicators that you have.

00:15:13.860 Party mandate.

00:15:14.820 Okay.

00:15:15.220 Before we get to that, remember, six and you're out.

00:15:17.860 Six and you're out.

00:15:18.580 Six and Trump is out.

00:15:19.860 Right.

00:15:20.180 Sure.

00:15:20.420 So let's just go through it together and you can tell me who's out.

00:15:25.060 So party mandate, which side do you choose with that?

00:15:27.780 Remember, all I need to do is say true or false.

00:15:30.100 Okay.

00:15:30.580 Because it's always based on the incumbent party.

00:15:33.940 So if it's false, that's one key against them.

00:15:37.620 And that one is obviously false because the Republicans took a huge beating in the midterm

00:15:43.220 elections, which is that, that's what it's measured on.

00:15:46.340 So one false.

00:15:47.460 So one false.

00:15:48.340 So that, that favors, just so the viewers watching is that favors the Dems.

00:15:52.420 Right.

00:15:52.660 Or it goes against Trump.

00:15:54.100 Exactly.

00:15:55.060 Either way.

00:15:55.460 Not contest.

00:15:56.580 Second one.

00:15:57.380 No primary contest.

00:15:58.900 No, Trump wasn't opposed.

00:16:00.340 That one's true.

00:16:01.540 Okay.

00:16:01.860 Got it.

00:16:02.260 Three incumbency.

00:16:04.020 He's the sitting president.

00:16:05.220 That one's true.

00:16:06.180 No question.

00:16:06.820 Third party.

00:16:08.260 Ah, you know, forget about Kanye West.

00:16:10.340 Didn't even make it to the ballot.

00:16:11.620 That one is true.

00:16:12.660 So the first four, which I call the political keys, only one false.

00:16:17.380 Only one false, which is the house.

00:16:19.380 He lost the house and they got a lot of work to do in the house.

00:16:22.260 Okay.

00:16:22.500 Yes.

00:16:22.980 So short-term economy.

00:16:25.300 Well, that's based on whether there's an election year recession.

00:16:28.180 That was looking good until we got the pandemic recession.

00:16:31.700 That one is false.

00:16:33.380 Okay.

00:16:33.780 Six long-term economy.

00:16:35.860 That was also looking good until we got this relentlessly negative growth this year that

00:16:40.900 drove the average down so far.

00:16:42.900 So that's the third false.

00:16:45.700 Seven is policy change.

00:16:48.180 Absolutely.

00:16:48.740 You know, he came in intent on undoing everything Obama had done, and he's mostly done it by executive

00:16:55.940 orders, but certainly the policies now are very different.

00:16:59.140 That one's true.

00:17:00.100 Social unrest.

00:17:01.620 That was also looking good until the death of George Floyd and the social unrest raging

00:17:08.340 across the land.

00:17:09.780 So that one is false.

00:17:13.300 So we're now at four falses.

00:17:16.020 Scandal number nine.

00:17:18.500 Ah, my favorite key, the scandal key.

00:17:20.740 And we can talk about it.

00:17:22.580 But as you know, because I wrote the book case for impeachment at the same time, I predicted

00:17:28.500 Donald Trump would win.

00:17:29.540 I also predicted he would be impeached and he was.

00:17:32.180 He's only the third American president ever to be impeached by the full house.

00:17:36.740 Richard Nixon resigned before that happened.

00:17:39.140 So that one is false.

00:17:40.980 That's five down.

00:17:42.020 OK, got it.

00:17:43.140 Ten foreign military failure.

00:17:45.620 Well, you can argue there have been failures on Bush's watch.

00:17:50.340 But again, these judgments here have to be objective and nonpartisan.

00:17:55.780 And they have to be based on how I called the keys since 1860.

00:17:59.700 And we're talking about big, splashy failures like 9-11 or losing a war.

00:18:05.300 Nothing of that magnitude.

00:18:07.220 So I count that one is true. 0.98

00:18:09.940 So that one is true.

00:18:10.980 OK, so that that favors more on Trump.

00:18:13.620 So foreign military success.

00:18:16.180 Yeah.

00:18:16.420 You know, I've looked around.

00:18:19.220 He got nowhere in North Korea except to pump up Kim Jong-un, gave up Syria to the Russians. 0.94

00:18:25.780 Nothing accomplished there.

00:18:27.140 Nothing accomplished in Iran or in Venezuela.

00:18:29.620 Now, recently, we did have this UAE treaty with the Israelis.

00:18:36.660 But it's a bogus treaty because it just says suspend annexations.

00:18:41.060 And Netanyahu said he can unsuspend at any time.

00:18:44.500 And the whole, you know, God knows how many hours of the Republican convention.

00:18:49.540 You've probably watched it, too.

00:18:51.380 One line on the UAE treaty, one line in Trump's speech.

00:18:54.980 That's it.

00:18:55.460 So I don't count that.

00:18:56.900 So that one is false.

00:18:58.100 So that one is false in your eyes.

00:18:59.540 We're now six.

00:19:01.140 Yes.

00:19:01.380 So now it's incumbent charisma.

00:19:04.020 This is the one I get the most flack about.

00:19:06.580 But again, it's not someone's opinion.

00:19:09.220 It's how it fits my model.

00:19:11.380 And this is a very high threshold key, Patrick.

00:19:14.660 Very high.

00:19:15.860 We're talking about the once in a generation inspirational candidate like on the Republican side,

00:19:22.420 Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, who brought in all those Reagan Democrats.

00:19:26.340 And to win this key, you have to be broadly appealing.

00:19:30.020 Trump's a great showman.

00:19:31.380 But as we know, he appeals to a narrow base, about 40 to 43 percent.

00:19:38.340 And the strong approval is 25 to 30 percent.

00:19:41.460 More than 60 percent of the American people don't trust him and don't like him.

00:19:46.260 So that one I count as false.

00:19:49.860 That's seven.

00:19:51.540 So then that's all he needs.

00:19:52.580 And then the last one is challenger's charisma, which is Biden.

00:19:56.180 So if Biden was charismatic, that would count against Trump.

00:19:59.300 But he's not.

00:19:59.860 You know, he's an experienced guy, decent guy, just as Trump is no Ronald Reagan.

00:20:06.100 Joe Biden is no John F. Kennedy.

00:20:08.180 So that one is true.

00:20:10.260 But we have seven.

00:20:12.020 So based on your prediction, you predict who will be president come election day.

00:20:17.620 Yes.

00:20:17.940 Based on my prediction with seven keys down and only six to count out the party holding the

00:20:23.540 White House, I predict Donald Trump will lose.

00:20:26.580 And therefore, Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States.

00:20:31.380 A reversal of my prediction for Donald Trump in 2016.

00:20:36.100 But remember, he was the challenger then, so he didn't have to defend a record.

00:20:42.180 Now he's the incumbent.

00:20:43.540 He still doesn't understand that he's going to be judged on his record, not on what he says.

00:20:49.220 To be fair with viewers watching this, somebody may say, well, he hates Trump.

00:20:54.020 That's why he would go against Trump.

00:20:55.220 You said Trump would win in 2016 when people thought you were crazy for choosing Trump. 0.98

00:21:00.420 People thought I was nuts. 0.54

00:21:01.780 And again, I teach in Washington, D.C.

00:21:04.180 You know, it's the Democratic stronghold of the world.

00:21:08.340 Yeah.

00:21:08.740 And I was extremely unpopular.

00:21:10.500 I took huge heat for it.

00:21:12.420 But I did get a note and it said, Professor, congrats.

00:21:17.780 Good call.

00:21:18.740 And in big Sharpie letters, Donald J. Trump.

00:21:21.540 You want to see it?

00:21:22.260 I have it.

00:21:23.060 If you got it, let me see it.

00:21:24.580 I got it.

00:21:25.460 That's hilarious.

00:21:26.100 Let me know if it's in the picture.

00:21:27.780 I totally see it.

00:21:29.060 There it is.

00:21:30.500 Good for him.

00:21:32.420 So that means you have a good collection because if your predictions are right, you're about

00:21:36.500 to get a Biden autograph here soon.

00:21:38.820 He better.

00:21:39.860 He better.

00:21:41.460 Or he's going to have to answer to me.

00:21:43.620 So, and by the way, you're obviously a Democrat, PhD, Harvard, Harvard leans left.

00:21:50.260 You're 1993 Scholar Professor of the Year at American University.

00:21:54.580 So it's not like you're in that world.

00:21:57.060 So to go against in 2016 against Hillary, you probably were, you know, many of the people

00:22:04.820 that were having lunch with you on a weekly basis probably said, you know what?

00:22:07.220 I don't know if I want to have lunch with you this week when you chose Trump.

00:22:10.020 Exactly.

00:22:10.500 Let me tell you something.

00:22:11.940 The hardest thing about being a forecaster, it's not knowing history.

00:22:16.340 They got no history.

00:22:17.780 It's not knowing politics.

00:22:19.060 So you got no politics.

00:22:20.260 It's not knowing math although you got no math.

00:22:22.660 It's putting aside your own political preferences.

00:22:27.620 If I just made forecasts according to my political preferences, I'd be useless as a forecaster.

00:22:35.300 And my training as an historian, which teaches us to look at the past in an impartial way,

00:22:40.900 was critical to my being a successful, and as you say, totally impartial forecaster.

00:22:48.580 Now, can I challenge you on a couple of your 13 if that's okay?

00:22:51.140 Of course.

00:22:51.860 Okay, let's have some fun here.

00:22:53.140 Okay.

00:22:53.460 Absolutely.

00:22:54.260 So on the short-term economy, how far back do you go on the short-term economy?

00:23:00.020 Because if you look at the economy starting November 9th, Trump gets elected.

00:23:05.620 Dow goes up 250 that day.

00:23:07.460 Dow ends at 18,589.

00:23:10.500 Today, the Dow is at 29,081.

00:23:13.540 We're talking about a very substantial growth in the last four years, right?

00:23:18.420 So short-term economy could be a true, couldn't it?

00:23:21.540 No.

00:23:22.260 I mean, you can have that opinion.

00:23:25.140 But again, you've got to do it according to the definitions of the keys.

00:23:30.420 And one of the great things about the keys, unlike most prediction systems, which are these

00:23:34.820 big impenetrable equations, they're a great teaching tool.

00:23:38.740 And they're a great tool for discussion, right?

00:23:41.460 But here's exactly what the key says.

00:23:45.060 The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

00:23:50.980 And we absolutely have a recession now during the election campaign.

00:23:56.660 The National Bureau of Economic Research declared a recession, said it began in February.

00:24:01.460 It hasn't ended.

00:24:02.420 And we've had two consecutive negative quarters.

00:24:06.260 So whatever else you may say, and you have a right to say it, you've got to stick to the definition.

00:24:10.580 I'm just trying to help you get a 10-game win streak.

00:24:12.980 I mean, this is like a double-digit win streak because the one thing when you look at recessions,

00:24:18.500 you know, there are certain things that you control.

00:24:21.380 There are certain things that you don't control with a pandemic.

00:24:25.140 That is the one part where I don't know, even if your model may need to have like a disclaimer

00:24:29.300 saying this model doesn't pertain to yours with a pandemic because none of the years you've

00:24:35.380 gone, there's been a pandemic.

00:24:37.060 So there may be a good out for you so you can be 10 for 10 because double-digit winning streak

00:24:42.660 in baseball, basketball, NHL is a big deal.

00:24:45.700 It's a very big deal.

00:24:46.820 And you know, every four years, someone comes to me and says, your model's not going to work

00:24:52.740 this year because we have an African-American running.

00:24:55.940 We've never had that before.

00:24:58.180 Or we have a woman running. 1.00

00:24:59.620 We've never had that before.

00:25:00.900 Your model's not going to work.

00:25:02.020 And here's my answer.

00:25:03.540 If you remember retrospectively, the model goes all the way back to 1860.

00:25:09.700 Yeah.

00:25:10.260 Women didn't vote. 1.00

00:25:11.620 My ancestors from Eastern Europe weren't even here yet.

00:25:15.060 Neither were your ancestors even here yet, right?

00:25:17.860 We had an agricultural economy.

00:25:20.180 We had no polls, no radio, no appeals.

00:25:25.140 And so it's what we call a very robust model that's lasted through enormous change.

00:25:30.420 The Civil War, the Great Depression, World War II, and of course, the aftermath of even worse

00:25:37.460 pandemic right after World War I.

00:25:39.540 The only reason I say this is the following.

00:25:42.420 So I've been in a financial industry 20 years.

00:25:44.180 I got out of the army.

00:25:45.060 I went to Morgan Stanley Dean Wooder a day before 9-11.

00:25:48.580 So I remember when a market tanked right after 9-11.

00:25:53.060 The way people handled their finances was very weird and different.

00:25:56.100 Nobody wanted to sit down and talk to you about stocks, mutual funds, money under management.

00:26:00.260 They were a little bit more hesitant.

00:26:02.100 In 08, when the market tanked, you remember 08, when the market tanked 38% in a year, 401ks became

00:26:08.180 201ks.

00:26:08.980 And short sales, places like Riverside had 65% turnover with their property.

00:26:14.900 Just a very scary time.

00:26:16.500 Even though there was quantitative easing and bailout, American people didn't get $600 a

00:26:23.140 week every week.

00:26:24.180 So I felt it as an advisor when I was dealing with clients.

00:26:27.380 They were struggling financially.

00:26:29.220 But during this pandemic, I got to tell you, Alan, when you're dealing with customers and

00:26:34.500 you're talking to them, even though 55 million people may be unemployed, it doesn't give the

00:26:39.140 feeling I'm a day-to-day person.

00:26:40.500 So I'm dealing with people regularly.

00:26:42.420 It doesn't give the same feeling of recession as an 08 or even slightly in an 01.

00:26:48.420 It's very different language out there because people are financially not doing as bad as

00:26:54.180 they did in 08 or 01.

00:26:55.300 What do you think about that?

00:26:56.260 Well, again, I don't look behind the keys.

00:27:01.620 As Herbert Hoover, a man who should know, certainly said, presidents get the credit for

00:27:08.180 the sunshine and the blame for the rain.

00:27:11.300 You know, he didn't cause the Great Depression and yet caused the crash of his presidency and

00:27:16.180 the crash of his Republican Party.

00:27:18.740 But I would say further that while you may say the pandemic, you know, is an act of God,

00:27:24.500 it was Donald Trump's botched response to the pandemic that has put us into the economic

00:27:31.940 difficulties that we see today.

00:27:34.100 I know he takes no responsibility for that.

00:27:37.140 But as Herbert Hoover said, when you're the president, you cannot escape responsibility.

00:27:42.580 Moreover, I would say, again, just to answer your argument, because the key is the key.

00:27:49.540 This is much worse than most previous recessions, much worse than the George H.W. Bush recession of

00:27:56.660 1991, 92, much worse than the 1960 recession that Richard Nixon had to face.

00:28:04.100 You know, it may not be as bad as the Great Recession of 2008, 2009.

00:28:10.660 But you know what?

00:28:11.380 My good friend, you may have heard of him, the late, great Jack Germond, the journalist,

00:28:15.860 the fat man in the middle, had this to say.

00:28:18.260 He said, there's an economist at every street corner in Washington, D.C., and not one agrees

00:28:24.980 with any other.

00:28:25.620 So I stick to the objective model.

00:28:30.180 I respect that.

00:28:31.540 I respect that.

00:28:32.180 I just, I just wonder, I wonder if there isn't, because let me tell you, when I read your 13

00:28:39.060 markers that you guys have the indicators, it's brilliant when you think about it.

00:28:43.060 And, but I think there is an element of opinion there.

00:28:46.500 There's a little bit of room for opinion because, you know, even right now, when you said,

00:28:51.060 you know, you may say the pandemic was, you know, from, you know, not something that we could have

00:28:55.220 prevented.

00:28:55.700 It kind of happened, even though we shut down China, et cetera, et cetera.

00:28:58.660 Still, Herbert Hoover says, if it happens during your term, it happens during your term.

00:29:01.940 And Trump didn't take responsibility for anything.

00:29:04.900 Say you're right about all of that.

00:29:06.340 There's a part of it that's opinion.

00:29:08.020 I wonder if there's an out there for these 13 indicators.

00:29:12.340 The other one is charismatic.

00:29:13.620 You know, when you say, let me comment on that, because you make a great point there.

00:29:18.020 And when I first came out with the keys, I was slammed for that very thing.

00:29:23.300 The professional forecasters, the political scientists, and by the way, you know, as well

00:29:28.100 as I, political science is not hard science, but the political scientists, the forecasters

00:29:33.780 were saying, come on, Lickman, you committed the great sin, the sin of subjectivity.

00:29:39.620 You've got some judgment in your keys.

00:29:41.460 And my answer is, I'm an historian.

00:29:44.100 I know that you cannot reduce the human world to pure numbers.

00:29:49.460 It doesn't work.

00:29:50.340 Even the big, you know better than I, even the big econometric models, the Wharton School

00:29:54.500 model, they don't work very well to predict the economy.

00:29:58.100 There has to be an element of judgment.

00:30:00.180 It took about 10 to 15 years.

00:30:03.380 And then the political forecasting world realized that the most successful models are like the keys,

00:30:08.980 which combine purely numerical measures like midterm election results with measures with

00:30:14.980 some judgment, not random judgment, because you've got to go with how it's defined in the model.

00:30:19.540 And the keys became the hottest thing in forecasting.

00:30:22.980 I twice keynoted, keynoted the International Forecasting Summit.

00:30:27.780 I published in all the big forecasting journals.

00:30:30.900 You know, I was interviewed by great people like you all over the world.

00:30:35.460 So yes, you know, there is an element of judgment, but I don't think that invalidates the system.

00:30:41.380 I think it makes it stronger.

00:30:42.900 Well, I mean, that's the part.

00:30:44.340 That's what makes it impressive.

00:30:46.660 But that's what also, if you get this one right, let me tell you,

00:30:50.260 this one's going to be very impressive for you to hit double digit.

00:30:55.620 It'll be very impressive because when I look, the only factor for me is two factors.

00:31:00.420 One is that one.

00:31:02.260 And even military success, you gave it false, which on the, on the military success,

00:31:07.780 one could argue the UAE and Israel.

00:31:10.580 One could argue Soleimani because Soleimani was, uh, uh, uh, you know, I'm from Iran myself.

00:31:16.420 So being somebody that's from Iran and I was in the U S army and, you know, follow military

00:31:19.940 based on what's going on and all the proxy wars that was going on.

00:31:23.140 Soleimani was a leader behind a lot of these proxy wars taking place.

00:31:26.820 So one could say Soleimani was a military success, similar to when Obama had, you know,

00:31:32.980 Osama bin Laden, that was a military success. 0.99

00:31:35.060 So that one could also be a little bit debated.

00:31:37.300 What are your thoughts?

00:31:38.340 Yeah.

00:31:38.580 Here's the difference.

00:31:39.780 There are two things when you read the book and when everyone buys my book, predicting the

00:31:44.500 next president, the keys to the white house, 2020 number one, it has to be big enough to

00:31:52.260 be consistent with the way the key was called.

00:31:54.900 This is a high threshold key.

00:31:57.300 Number two, it has to be of great substantive significance.

00:32:01.620 And, you know, there are lots of, I'm not a Middle East expert.

00:32:04.900 There are lots of Middle East experts who said that killing made things less safe, less stable

00:32:11.140 in the Persian Gulf.

00:32:12.180 I don't know if that's true, but there's a lot of division.

00:32:15.940 Unlike other big foreign policy successes, then it has to be broadly recognized.

00:32:20.740 I promise you, 90% or more of the American people could not name General Soleimani.

00:32:30.020 Osama bin Laden was a household name before and after he was killed.

00:32:36.660 He was public enemy number one.

00:32:39.140 He was the international Al Capone.

00:32:42.260 Soleimani unknown to Americans, still unknown to Americans, and it's unclear whether anything

00:32:49.380 is different in the Persian Gulf.

00:32:51.700 And they hardly mentioned it in their convention.

00:32:54.020 If this was a big deal, you know, it would have been featured in the convention.

00:32:58.260 It was barely mentioned, only in Trump's speech.

00:33:01.140 I noticed you go to convention a lot.

00:33:03.540 So do you gauge a lot also what the incumbent is talking on their speech at their convention?

00:33:08.100 Yes, that's very important.

00:33:09.620 What they think is important.

00:33:11.940 And by the way, well, I'll side here.

00:33:14.100 I love virtual conventions.

00:33:16.420 I've been to conventions.

00:33:17.700 And you know why people go to conventions?

00:33:19.780 To party, because the conventions don't do anything.

00:33:23.220 The nominee is already selected.

00:33:25.620 So think of the carbon footprint we've saved.

00:33:30.180 Think of the money we've saved by having virtual conventions.

00:33:33.540 Plus, previously in the in-person conventions, no one could hear the preliminary speeches

00:33:41.140 because delegates are milling around the floor.

00:33:43.860 They're talking.

00:33:44.580 No one pays attention until you get the president, the vice president.

00:33:48.340 Now in the virtual convention, everyone comes across crystal clear.

00:33:52.340 Interesting.

00:33:52.660 Very, very good point.

00:33:54.100 By the way, what you're saying there, and just so you know, our viewers who own local

00:33:59.220 bars near where conventions are being done, they're offended by your comments.

00:34:02.260 Just so you know.

00:34:02.740 I'm sure they are.

00:34:03.460 And that's a good point on the other side.

00:34:05.940 You're minimizing all the after parties taking place.

00:34:09.460 Yeah.

00:34:10.340 But anyways, let's continue.

00:34:11.620 OK, so so far we've done a couple.

00:34:12.900 By the way, Soleimani, in many military generals eyes, he was the right hand guy.

00:34:19.460 I mean, he was the one that made things work.

00:34:21.540 And he was feared by a lot of people because he had so many strong contacts on the other

00:34:25.860 side.

00:34:26.260 But fine.

00:34:27.060 Let's just say you're right.

00:34:28.340 He is not Osama bin Laden.

00:34:29.700 Again, the element of judgment is the one that I like when you say there's the element

00:34:34.100 of judgment.

00:34:34.820 That's why we can discuss it.

00:34:36.340 We can't discuss the Wharton model.

00:34:38.580 You know, this is why I invited you, because I really like your style on how you are and how

00:34:44.980 you go back and forth and you're very open about it.

00:34:47.140 So this last one is the incumbent is not charismatic.

00:34:53.300 Right.

00:34:53.460 I give the charisma key to neither Trump nor Biden.

00:34:56.180 That's right.

00:34:56.580 I mean, so let me ask you a question.

00:34:58.340 Would you consider yourself charismatic?

00:35:01.620 I have no idea.

00:35:03.060 I think you're very charismatic.

00:35:04.900 I'm not, you know, the one time I ran for office, I did terribly.

00:35:08.900 No, but, but, but I say, I say most guys, if I were to say right now, without showing

00:35:14.020 the face, my next guest is going to talk to us about predicting the next president.

00:35:19.140 He's a historian.

00:35:20.580 If I told them, judge the speaker based on him being a historian, 80% of people will be

00:35:27.140 logging off because a historian is going to talk like this.

00:35:29.700 Well, yes, as a doctor, I've been been in the, you don't talk like that.

00:35:35.220 You've got a personality.

00:35:36.340 So you know your world.

00:35:37.380 They're boring people when you listen to them.

00:35:39.140 All right.

00:35:39.380 Let me tell you though, the difference, unlike me, we have metrics to measure Donald Trump

00:35:47.060 and we can measure those metrics against the once in a generation inspirational candidates.

00:35:53.060 You can't call someone broadly inspirational when over 60% of the American people don't trust

00:35:59.940 him and don't like him.

00:36:01.540 And he's never come close to 50% approval and a strong approval is 25 to 30%.

00:36:07.860 I've been hit by a lot of people who say, well, he's charismatic to his base.

00:36:12.420 And I agree with that, but that's not the definition of the key.

00:36:16.740 Okay.

00:36:17.300 Okay.

00:36:17.380 So Alan, you are smarter than I am more educated than I am more experienced than I am.

00:36:22.260 And I'm, you know, uh, you know, I'm I, this is your world.

00:36:25.540 Okay.

00:36:25.860 Whenever anyone says that to me, I start to worry.

00:36:31.460 Okay.

00:36:31.780 But here's the part, what show have you watched over and over and over again?

00:36:38.100 Like if you were to say, Pat, you know, I'm a CSI guy or, you know, I've watched, uh, I

00:36:43.940 don't know, maybe you're a narcos guy.

00:36:45.940 I can't put you on a certain show that you'll watch over and over again.

00:36:48.820 What is a show that you'll watch over and over and over again for years?

00:36:52.020 Like, are you friends?

00:36:53.620 I don't know.

00:36:54.340 What was the show that you watched over and over again?

00:36:57.060 New York Yankees baseball, being a, being a native New Yorker.

00:37:01.220 Yes.

00:37:01.780 Well, I, I respect that because I am trying to get my hands on a 1952 tops,

00:37:07.300 Mickey Mantle, PSA 10, and only three people own it.

00:37:10.020 Then the two don't want to sell them.

00:37:11.460 One of them does, but he's asking for a lot of money.

00:37:13.860 I'm a Yankees guys.

00:37:14.660 Well, so, but here's my point to you.

00:37:16.660 My point to you is this.

00:37:18.100 Do you think somebody who lacks charisma could have a show on TV that last 15 seasons?

00:37:27.780 Alan, you gotta have charisma for advertisers to say, we like advertising during the show

00:37:34.580 ran by this guy who keeps telling people you're fired.

00:37:37.540 What do you think about that?

00:37:38.820 Hey, you know, I never watched the show.

00:37:40.980 I have to tell you once, so I'm the wrong person, but we're not judging him on his TV show.

00:37:47.540 Come on.

00:37:48.180 We're judging him on his performance as a candidate and president.

00:37:52.100 And when over 60% turn thumbs down, and when he has one of the narrowest bases in the history

00:37:59.060 of the presidency, he doesn't fit my definition.

00:38:02.820 He may fit some other definition, and that's fine.

00:38:06.500 But if you're going to call the keys, you've got to call them within the context of my definitions.

00:38:12.260 You can have a different opinion, and that's fine, but that's not the keys.

00:38:17.780 So I've gone through your keys, and based on your keys, the score I have is 9-4 Trump, okay?

00:38:24.340 The keys I have.

00:38:25.300 Now, listen.

00:38:26.500 And what's your track record of predicting elections?

00:38:30.180 Come on.

00:38:30.980 I'm not intruding in your realm.

00:38:33.460 Well, listen.

00:38:34.500 If, here's what I'm willing to do.

00:38:36.580 If you get it right, I'll get you the best seats on Yankees.

00:38:40.580 You tell me which ticket you won season.

00:38:42.500 I'll get you the sickest seats wherever you want for four people. 0.99

00:38:45.220 Take your family.

00:38:46.420 If I win, you come back and you say, Pat, you were right.

00:38:48.900 Is that a fair deal?

00:38:49.780 Deal.

00:38:50.340 You know, I got to deal.

00:38:51.300 I got to tell you something, Pat.

00:38:52.980 I'm 73, right?

00:38:54.180 Yes.

00:38:54.580 I've been doing this since almost before you were born, right?

00:38:57.140 Since 1982.

00:38:59.700 And every four years, I get butterflies in my stomach.

00:39:04.100 It's a hell of a thing to put yourself on the line.

00:39:07.140 I bet.

00:39:07.620 I got a lot of respect.

00:39:08.740 Every four years.

00:39:09.220 I bet.

00:39:10.020 And everyone is just waiting for you to be wrong so they can pounce on you, right?

00:39:14.980 You know, I've been right nine times, but all anyone will look at would be if I'm wrong

00:39:19.380 this time.

00:39:19.940 And I got to tell you two other things.

00:39:22.420 Two things outside the realm of the keys that keep me up at night.

00:39:26.340 One is voter suppression.

00:39:28.740 We saw that in Florida in 2000.

00:39:30.980 That's why that election got screwed up.

00:39:32.980 Now it's nationwide.

00:39:34.260 And here's the thing.

00:39:35.300 The Republican base is old white guys like me.

00:39:38.980 You can't manufacture more old white guys. 1.00

00:39:41.540 Can't make us live, unfortunately, to be 150.

00:39:44.900 But what you can do is restrict the voting of the Democratic rising base of minorities

00:39:50.740 and young people.

00:39:51.620 And Trump has been fiercely trying to do that.

00:39:55.060 And his guy at the post office has messed up the post office, which is going to make it very

00:39:59.700 difficult to get mail-in ballots, an essential thing during the pandemic in on time.

00:40:05.060 Second thing is Russian intervention.

00:40:08.740 We know they're here.

00:40:09.780 They're setting up already all of these trolls on behalf of Donald Trump.

00:40:13.860 They're probably better at it this time because they've had all that experience.

00:40:17.300 And we know Trump will welcome it and exploit it just like he did in 2016.

00:40:23.780 And by the way, don't read the Mueller report.

00:40:25.860 The Mueller report is, to me, the biggest embarrassment and disappointment in modern history.

00:40:32.100 Read the bipartisan report of the Republican-controlled Senate Intelligence Committee.

00:40:38.740 It goes way beyond the disappointing Mueller report to prove collusion between the Trump campaign

00:40:45.860 and the Russians.

00:40:47.380 That's a fair assessment because, you know, when it comes down to the meddling part, I think it's

00:40:53.780 fair to say that, you know, we have been meddling, America's been meddling with other people's

00:40:59.220 elections for God knows more than any other country has ever meddled into our elections.

00:41:03.460 You know this.

00:41:04.420 We're famous for meddling in other people's elections.

00:41:06.660 I mean, even I had a guest on a month and a half ago, John Perkins.

00:41:10.420 He wrote a book called The Economic Hitman, which you probably know John Perkins if you don't.

00:41:15.540 His business model is how to meddle in other people's elections who have resources, countries

00:41:19.860 with resources.

00:41:20.900 So I think this meddling stuff is going to keep going on and people are just getting very

00:41:24.740 good at hacking.

00:41:25.460 But, you know, to go back and see who you picked, just to go back and see who you picked.

00:41:29.700 You picked Reagan.

00:41:31.060 OK, and very impressive to pick Reagan in 81, 82, two years before.

00:41:37.540 Unbelievably impressive.

00:41:38.820 OK, Bush 88.

00:41:41.620 OK, fine.

00:41:42.500 Bush 88 makes sense. 0.91

00:41:43.700 It was an embarrassing moment for his opponent.

00:41:46.020 Wait, wait, wait.

00:41:46.740 Let me stop you. 0.95

00:41:47.380 Let me stop you. 0.95

00:41:48.180 I picked Bush 88 in May of 1988, long before the Willie Horton ad, the tank by Dukakis.

00:41:59.860 Long before the tank.

00:42:00.420 Long before.

00:42:01.060 OK, that's impressive.

00:42:01.860 May of 1988.

00:42:03.300 So let me ask you that.

00:42:04.260 Let me finish.

00:42:04.900 Yeah.

00:42:05.300 When Bush was 17 points behind Michael Dukakis, I wrote, he's a shoe into it.

00:42:13.140 And again, people thought I was crazy.

00:42:14.660 Wow.

00:42:15.140 OK, let's go through every one of them.

00:42:16.500 I'm actually curious now.

00:42:17.220 When did you choose 92 Clinton against Bush?

00:42:20.180 Was it before the debate that the lady asked, hey, President Bush, how do you feel about the

00:42:25.140 national debt?

00:42:25.780 And he says, what, you don't think I'm affected by it?

00:42:28.260 You know which one I'm talking about.

00:42:29.380 Did you choose before that?

00:42:31.620 Yes, but I chose that 92 in 2016 were my latest calls.

00:42:37.300 And the reason, OK, they were both six key elections.

00:42:41.620 And in 92, you may remember this crazy guy, Ross Perot, he's in, he's out, he's in, he's out.

00:42:50.820 And it was very and that was the sixth key, the third party key that sided the election.

00:42:55.460 And so it was very difficult for me to make that call until finally we knew Ross Perot really was in.

00:43:01.940 Very tough call.

00:43:02.820 That makes a lot of sense.

00:43:03.940 Thanks for clarifying that.

00:43:06.180 So then you have 2000 Bush, which, OK, 2000.

00:43:10.020 Crazy, crazy.

00:43:11.140 We already went through that crazy situation.

00:43:13.140 Yeah.

00:43:13.220 And then all four and then Obama and when you did Obama against Hillary and you did Obama,

00:43:18.500 I'm sorry, Obama against McCain and he did Obama against Romney.

00:43:24.260 What was the score when you did it?

00:43:25.700 I'm so curious out of the 13.

00:43:27.060 Yeah, these were overwhelming scores.

00:43:28.820 I called 2008 in early 2006, again, almost three years ahead of time, because I saw how

00:43:39.940 many of the keys were going to fall in a very difficult second Bush term.

00:43:46.020 In fact, I became infamous for saying this early that the Democrats could pick a name

00:43:52.180 out of the phone book and elect that person president.

00:43:55.460 And that's kind of what they did.

00:43:56.740 Right.

00:43:56.900 Whoever heard of Barack Obama, you know, senator.

00:43:59.860 Yeah.

00:44:00.020 Yeah.

00:44:00.420 Yeah.

00:44:00.980 One term.

00:44:01.380 And what was he wasn't even a senator yet then?

00:44:03.940 I don't think I think he was elected in 2006.

00:44:06.420 So he wasn't even a senator when I called it.

00:44:10.180 Uh, and then I called 2012, which is a very hard to call election in January of 2010, because

00:44:20.420 again, I could early see the keys lining up and I got a blistering attacks from none other

00:44:27.140 than you may have heard of this guy, Nate Silver, right?

00:44:30.420 1911 out of the blue gratuitously.

00:44:33.060 He writes a 20 page attack on my prediction saying you can't predict this early. 0.95

00:44:38.420 This is ridiculous. 0.97

00:44:39.540 Can't do it. 0.90

00:44:40.500 I wrote a big response.

00:44:41.940 It was great.

00:44:43.060 And of course, I was ultimately right.

00:44:45.380 And then much later, based on the polls, he came comes along.

00:44:49.700 So I write him an email and I said, Nate, let's do a joint article showing how two different

00:44:56.420 analysts using utterly different methods came to the same answer.

00:45:00.820 Never heard from him again.

00:45:02.180 Never heard of him.

00:45:03.060 Wow.

00:45:03.380 Never, never.

00:45:04.100 He never answered my email.

00:45:05.380 By the way, you said 1911.

00:45:06.740 I'm assuming he wrote it in 2011.

00:45:08.260 2011.

00:45:09.060 Yeah.

00:45:09.220 Got it.

00:45:10.020 So even I wasn't around in 1911.

00:45:11.860 No, exactly.

00:45:12.340 That's what I figured.

00:45:12.980 Yeah, good catch.

00:45:14.660 Yes.

00:45:15.300 I'm a little dyslexic in my old age.

00:45:17.460 It's, it's all good.

00:45:18.500 I have other issues, but, uh, you know, it's, it's totally fine.

00:45:21.380 So now he here's the, he's the other thing to be thinking about.

00:45:25.300 You know, in October, everybody's got something up their sleeves.

00:45:27.460 Well, I'm going to pull this card or we have this recorded tape of Trump with this woman, 0.94

00:45:32.580 or we have this, you know, four people that are going to come out against Biden, or we have

00:45:36.980 some new stuff that's going to come out from Epstein or Jelaine Maxwell, or we have some stuff

00:45:41.060 that's going to come out from the RNC or the DNC.

00:45:43.380 You're saying anything that comes out is irrelevant.

00:45:46.580 Exactly.

00:45:48.020 Keep your eye on the big picture and don't worry about this day to day stuff.

00:45:54.660 Look, these media pundits, they're all friends of mine and they're terrific.

00:45:59.060 They're smart, but they have a handicap that I don't have. 0.99

00:46:03.220 They have to cover the election every single day.

00:46:05.380 So they got to make a big deal out of all of these, you know, day to day events.

00:46:09.700 They just can't say Lickman predicts Biden.

00:46:12.980 See you in three months.

00:46:15.540 They wouldn't sell a lot of ads like that.

00:46:17.060 So, so exactly based on your model though, if there is no third party debates are irrelevant.

00:46:22.420 Yeah, debates are irrelevant.

00:46:25.060 Let me tell you something, too, about this, you know, the media and the candidates.

00:46:30.340 You may know that in 1961, the great Republican President Dwight Eisenhower gave the most famous

00:46:37.380 farewell address ever, where he warned about the country being in the grip of the military

00:46:43.460 industrial complex.

00:46:44.740 This is from the war hero.

00:46:46.100 And the military industrial complex is based on what we call the iron triangle, the defense

00:46:52.580 contractors who make money, the members of Congress who want defense industries in their

00:46:58.820 districts, and the military that wants all this hardware.

00:47:02.580 Well, we now have a political industrial complex with its own iron triangle.

00:47:07.860 There are the pollsters, the consultants, the admin, who make huge amounts of money on this

00:47:13.620 notion that the election is decided by all these day to day events.

00:47:17.540 Then there's the media that makes huge money covering the election day by day.

00:47:22.740 And then there are the candidates who are afraid to go against the media and the consultants.

00:47:28.340 And I've been screaming for four years to try to break this iron triangle.

00:47:33.140 But like the one in the military industrial complex, it's very hard to break.

00:47:38.660 Yeah.

00:47:38.980 So, so again, to go back to it, debates irrelevant.

00:47:42.020 So no matter what can be said, so no, no one liner that comes back and nowadays a video

00:47:47.380 goes viral, gets 150 million views, irrelevant in your eyes.

00:47:50.980 Hillary Clinton won all the debates by all the polls, won them handily, made no difference 0.56

00:47:56.660 in the election.

00:47:57.460 John Kerry in 2004, won the debates, made absolutely no difference.

00:48:04.820 Interesting.

00:48:05.940 That's, uh, and by the way, how about this other one here?

00:48:08.580 I'm just trying to pull right now to see if you're going to say anything, but I'm very,

00:48:12.340 you're April 4th.

00:48:13.380 My dad's April 10th.

00:48:14.340 You're not cracking.

00:48:15.060 I mean, you're like, uh, you're staying strong.

00:48:17.620 You know, you're, you're not, you're not saying anything that there's any possibilities.

00:48:21.220 How about this one here?

00:48:22.500 So this whole thing with, uh, COVID, you know, CDC comes out two days ago saying 96,

00:48:27.380 6% of the causes of the 150,000 people that died.

00:48:30.500 The number one reason wasn't COVID.

00:48:31.940 It was something else.

00:48:32.580 Only 6% cause was COVID.

00:48:34.420 What do you think about that data that comes out?

00:48:36.260 Is that any leverage that gives Trump or no?

00:48:39.940 I'll get to that in one second, but let me follow up on your comment about my not crack.

00:48:45.540 You may not know this, but another thing I do is I've been an expert witness in 100,

00:48:52.260 100 civil rights cases, big cases in Texas and Florida, North Carolina, California,

00:49:00.740 Wisconsin.

00:49:01.700 I have been cross-examined for eight hours, you know, by some of the best lawyers in the

00:49:06.740 world who want to take my head off.

00:49:09.460 So, you know, I'm used to taking the heat.

00:49:12.660 And again, the secret of the keys is nothing matters unless it turns a key.

00:49:21.300 If that opens up the economy and all of a sudden, you know, we have an economic miracle,

00:49:27.220 you know, where we have 60% growth that wipes out the negative growth of the first two quarters,

00:49:32.820 that will change a key.

00:49:34.260 But unless it changes a key, I can't go outside my system.

00:49:38.420 Because if I go outside my system, I've counterfeited my own system.

00:49:42.740 I cannot do that.

00:49:44.900 But let me just comment as an expert in history and politics, leaving aside my system.

00:49:51.860 And I wrote about this in the case for impeachment.

00:49:54.500 The most important thing you have as president is your credibility.

00:49:59.140 Well, Trump has lost all credibility on COVID, you know, promoting quack cures like swallowing

00:50:05.700 bleach and putting ultraviolet light into your body, saying 99% of cases are harmless.

00:50:12.500 Kids are immune.

00:50:13.940 He no longer has any credibility.

00:50:15.780 So anything coming out of this White House on COVID, the great majority of the American people

00:50:22.340 aren't going to believe it because there is no credibility.

00:50:26.260 Okay, all right.

00:50:29.700 I mean, that's all I got for you.

00:50:30.900 You did great, just so you know that.

00:50:32.500 Now, my only questions I got for you have nothing to do with this.

00:50:34.660 I'm just curious to know what you can say about this since you've been around the block.

00:50:38.740 So 1970, American people, this is a poll that came out.

00:50:42.180 I know you love polls.

00:50:43.780 This is a poll that came out.

00:50:45.620 This is a poll that came out that said in 1970, during the Walter Cronkite era,

00:50:50.420 80% of the American people trusted the media.

00:50:53.460 That same poll that came out said 20% of people trusted the media today.

00:50:59.780 You've been around.

00:51:00.740 What's changed in the last 50 years?

00:51:03.140 Yeah, a couple of things have changed.

00:51:06.740 The more important thing is people's views of their government.

00:51:11.940 You know, we talk about the Kennedy era, you know, as this shining moment like Camelot under King Arthur.

00:51:19.780 And obviously that's a myth. But one thing that is true, it used to be 70, 75, 80% of the American people thought that their government most of the time worked for them.

00:51:34.340 Now we're down to 20% of the American people believing that.

00:51:39.220 So both the media and the government have collapsed in terms of public trust.

00:51:47.860 And this is a huge crisis for our democracy, because if people can't believe in reliable sources of information and people can't believe in long established institutions, then our democracy is in a lot of trouble.

00:52:02.500 And you know, because you've had experience abroad, democracies are fragile.

00:52:06.980 You know, we tend to believe, oh, American democracy can never collapse.

00:52:10.740 But you know, as well as I, in the great era, first great golden age of democracy after World War I, there were dozens of democracies.

00:52:18.700 By the mid-1940s, we were down to 12.

00:52:22.420 So, and according to Freedom House, in the last 10 or 15 years, 25 democracies.

00:52:28.900 They haven't become complete autocracies, but they have greatly declined in their democratic strength.

00:52:35.940 So, is that, is that something, so if you're saying right now, that when it comes down to the democracy, you know, with 20%, we don't trust the media, nor do we trust the government.

00:52:46.980 I'm not sure it's 20%, but I think it's higher than that. 0.98

00:52:50.960 I think it's more like 40%.

00:52:52.780 But let's just say we don't.

00:52:54.260 I mean, is that a good thing or a bad thing?

00:52:56.240 And if it's a bad thing, who do we trust?

00:52:58.780 Who do the American people lean on trusting to give the right source?

00:53:02.480 Well, you know, what's happened, unfortunately, is people tend to trust the media that echoes their own views.

00:53:13.640 Those who watch Fox News are fundamentally different than those who watch MSNBC.

00:53:21.460 And while these are all long-term trends, all these trends have been greatly exacerbated by Donald Trump.

00:53:27.280 You know, Richard Nixon famously said, the media is the enemy of the people, right?

00:53:32.240 But he said it in private.

00:53:33.760 People don't realize he never said that in public.

00:53:36.960 Trump has had said that dozens of times in public and has tweeted attacks on the media over 1,500 times since he took office.

00:53:47.720 And we know the ways in which he has been divisive racially, gender, religion.

00:53:54.220 And so we've had a president who loves chaos and loves division.

00:53:59.040 And that's been a huge problem.

00:54:01.860 It's very impressive on how much you love President Trump.

00:54:04.340 It's felt.

00:54:05.480 It's just it oozes out of you.

00:54:07.260 You know, you just kind of feel it.

00:54:09.140 I'd love to have a president I could trust.

00:54:12.080 When's the last time you had that?

00:54:15.720 I trusted Obama.

00:54:17.220 I have a lot of criticisms of Obama.

00:54:19.100 I'm not just fawning on Obama, but one thing for the most part, he could be trusted.

00:54:24.760 Cool.

00:54:25.220 Let's do a quick speed run.

00:54:26.800 I'll give you a name.

00:54:27.580 Tell me the first thing that comes to your mind.

00:54:29.560 OK, so Al Gore.

00:54:33.560 Al Gore, boring.

00:54:35.400 Nixon. 0.99

00:54:37.160 Crook.

00:54:38.240 Roger Stone.

00:54:40.080 Crook.

00:54:40.920 Joe Biden.

00:54:43.580 Decent but boring.

00:54:45.380 Clinton.

00:54:45.700 Bill Clinton.

00:54:49.240 Bill Clinton.

00:54:51.360 Brilliant but flawed.

00:54:54.900 Hillary.

00:54:58.340 Too uptight.

00:55:01.900 Obama.

00:55:04.460 Brilliant but never understood the political role of the president.

00:55:10.440 Interesting.

00:55:11.160 Trump. 1.00

00:55:13.960 Dishonest, divisive. 1.00

00:55:16.180 Cuomo. 0.98

00:55:17.920 Which?

00:55:19.760 Andrew Cuomo.

00:55:23.160 Mixed, kind of, you know, coming into his own, but made mistakes too.

00:55:29.900 Vladimir Kelis Borak.

00:55:32.660 Brilliant, great guy.

00:55:34.700 May he rest in peace.

00:55:36.520 Absolutely.

00:55:37.580 Tucker Carlson.

00:55:40.900 Inflammatory. 0.98

00:55:43.340 Dishonest.

00:55:44.620 AOC. 0.98

00:55:45.020 Dishonest.

00:55:47.720 Inflammatory. 0.67

00:55:49.080 Maybe the future.

00:55:52.300 Bernie Sanders.

00:55:55.420 Inflammatory.

00:55:55.900 No longer the future.

00:55:58.460 Anderson Cooper.

00:56:00.820 Solid.

00:56:01.980 Solid.

00:56:02.560 OK, we'll finish on solid.

00:56:03.720 I think it's good to finish on a good note.

00:56:05.280 You know, we'll say Anderson Cooper's solid.

00:56:07.320 And you can see, you know, I was brutally honest with you.

00:56:10.220 I wasn't just whitewashing every Democrat.

00:56:12.240 But I tell you what, that's what I appreciate about you.

00:56:14.440 Because when I saw how you were, I said, I mean, I even saw what you said on Bill Maher.

00:56:18.340 You said something about Republicans have no principles, but they have spine.

00:56:22.760 Democrats are with principles, but without any spine, you know, with no spine.

00:56:26.880 I mean, you've made some very direct call-outs to Republicans.

00:56:31.480 You don't hold back.

00:56:32.680 But at the same time, you'll say 2016, Trump wins.

00:56:35.460 So the audience needs to know how much you're against Republicans, but you're still willing

00:56:39.920 to go based on your 13 indicators and say who's going to win and who's going to lose.

00:56:44.000 That's correct.

00:56:44.880 It is critically important if you're going to deal with political forecasting, as hard

00:56:49.860 as it is to put aside your own political views.

00:56:52.560 Otherwise, why bother? 0.99

00:56:54.080 You're useless as a forecaster. 0.99

00:56:56.100 You'll be wrong half the time. 0.99

00:56:57.460 But I got to tell you, since I've been even-handed in my predictions, every four years, I make half

00:57:03.480 the country really, really mad at me.

00:57:05.940 And since I've been doing this for 40 years, the whole country is really, really mad at me.

00:57:10.780 That's why everyone is waiting to pounce on me if I'm wrong.

00:57:13.940 So it's very hard to not like you.

00:57:16.040 I don't have to agree with you, but it's very hard not to like you.

00:57:20.440 I like you too.

00:57:21.820 Yeah, I've really enjoyed this time with you.

00:57:23.780 So I guess on November 4th, unless if Goldman Sachs is right, because Goldman Sachs is saying

00:57:27.960 this thing's going to take 35 days and they're going to do the recount kind of like it was

00:57:31.240 with Gore and they did 32 days.

00:57:33.340 So I don't know what, if they're not right, either I owe you on November 4th, four tickets

00:57:38.320 to Yankees game.

00:57:39.260 You tell me which game, or you're going to come back as a guest and we'll have a friendly

00:57:42.660 conversation together.

00:57:44.280 Take care, my friend.

00:57:45.520 Take care.

00:57:45.880 You as well.

00:57:46.300 Bye-bye, bye-bye.

00:57:46.760 So now that you know the 13 indicators, I'm curious, who do you think is going to win

00:57:50.340 the election?

00:57:50.920 Comment below, Biden or Trump?

00:57:52.340 I want to know because his score of 7-6, there's a part of it that's judgment, but I wonder

00:57:56.900 what you think about it.

00:57:57.720 And by the way, if you want to get his book, we're going to put a link to his book below.

00:58:01.860 They can go purchase.

00:58:02.700 They can follow him on Twitter, send him a message as well.

00:58:04.740 And if you enjoyed this interview today, I have another interview I want you to watch with

00:58:08.200 Roger Stone, who's on the complete opposite side of Lickman.

00:58:12.200 You'll get a chance to kind of decide for yourself on how these two different powerhouses, one's

00:58:17.980 a guy who predicts presidents, the other one's a good marketer that knows how to make presidents.

00:58:22.340 If you haven't seen the interview with Roger Stone, I think you'll enjoy it.

00:58:25.360 And if you've not subscribed to the channel, please do so.

00:58:27.980 Take care, everybody.

00:58:28.640 Bye-bye.

Valuetainment - September 04, 2020

Professor Who Predicted a Trump Win in 2016 Now Predicts a Biden Win in 2020

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