Valuetainment - April 27, 2021


Reaction To Biden’s Proposed Tax Hikes


Episode Stats


Length

19 minutes

Words per minute

204.17259

Word count

3,970

Sentence count

292

Harmful content

Misogyny

3

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Biden's Tax Plan, Bitcoin drops below $50, Dow drops below 50, and the market reacts. What are we all thinking about this? What are the implications for the economy and the stock market? What will happen to the dollar, Bitcoin and the Dow, and what does this mean for the markets?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.000 Okay, so you see this drop-off right here to go from here, Dow Jones, to all the way down here,
00:00:04.940 and one day that's not a good thing, and that's what happened to the market yesterday after
00:00:08.100 the media got a hold of Biden's proposal on his tax plan, and the market went nuts,
00:00:14.340 they went crazy. Dow dropped a percent in a day, even Bitcoin dropped, you know, from 55 Dow
00:00:21.880 all the way down to 49 Dow, and, you know, even Bitcoin just a few days ago was at $65,000,
00:00:28.900 high $62,000, now it's at a down of $49,000, but the market's been reacting. What happened with
00:00:34.680 this Biden tax plan? You know, New York Times writing articles about it, Biden's, this is
00:00:40.180 Bloomberg, Biden eyeing tax rate as high as 43.4% in a next economic package, MarketWatch talking
00:00:46.900 about how get ready for $178 billion selling ahead of the capital gains tax hike that's going to
00:00:54.720 happen this year, Bitcoin drops below $50,000, and then there's another story here by Reuters,
00:00:59.880 which, fantastic story, Biden to float historic tax increase on investment gains on the rich,
00:01:06.360 and we're going to get a little bit into it, and here's the reality here about taxes, I'm
00:01:10.140 going to show you a video by the time we're done with, is the following. There are three
00:01:14.060 camps that are going to be going through the tax hikes, okay, number one is those who directly
00:01:20.040 know that they're going to be affected by this, right, and we'll talk about those guys,
00:01:23.920 those who indirectly are aware that they're going to be affected by this, and then there's a third
00:01:29.820 camp, you know who it is? Those who are not aware that they're indirectly going to be affected by
00:01:35.760 this, I'll address all those three camps here in a minute, but let's read this article here
00:01:39.040 on what they talk about with the tax plan. So, President Joe Biden will roll out a tax plan on
00:01:44.760 raise tax on the wealthiest Americans, including the largest ever increase in levies on investment
00:01:49.220 gains to fund about a trillion dollars in child care, universal pre-kindergarten education,
00:01:53.620 and paid leave for workers. Sources familiar to the proposal said the plan is part of a White
00:01:59.360 House push to sweep an overhaul of UL tax system to make the rich and big companies pay more and
00:02:05.360 help foot the bill for Biden's ambitious economic agenda. The proposal calls for increasing the top
00:02:11.780 marginal income tax rate to 39.6 from 37, and sources said that this week it would also nearly
00:02:20.100 double capital gains to 39.6 for people earning more than a million dollars. That would be the
00:02:26.220 highest tax rate on investment gains, which are mostly paid by the wealthiest Americans since 1920s.
00:02:32.280 The rate has not exceeded 33.8 in the post-World War II modern era. It's also corporate tax rates going
00:02:41.620 from 21 to 28% that they're also pitching as well. And to kind of put the numbers here at the bottom
00:02:47.480 of what it says, where is the one where it gives you the idea about the states? Let's see here. Okay,
00:02:53.120 all the way in the bottom. Okay, this is good here. Erica York, an economist at the Tax Foundation said
00:03:00.280 the proposal would put U.S. capital gains taxes at the top of the global charts anywhere around the
00:03:05.220 world. Average capital gains taxes in Europe is around 19.3. Can you imagine Europe is known for being a
00:03:10.700 socialistic European Union? The average is 19.3. Today's U.S. capital gains is 23.9 because it's 20
00:03:19.480 plus the Obamacare that you put on top of that. So we are higher than socialistic countries in Europe
00:03:25.680 currently, even with the 23.9. And the highest rating is Denmark, which collects 42%. France and
00:03:32.500 Finland charge 34% for residents of some states and cities that assess their own capital gains levy.
00:03:38.800 Biden's tax plan would push to the total capital gains rate to more than 50%, York said. The rate
00:03:45.880 would rise to 56.7% in California, 68.2% in New York City, and 57.3% in Portland, Oregon. You see
00:03:55.700 these numbers here, 68.2% in New York City. That almost doesn't even look real when you read a number
00:04:01.720 like that. 68.2%. So now, if you're looking at this, what are you thinking? Well, there's a few
00:04:08.360 different things to be thinking about. I'm surprised that people are surprised. What do I mean by this?
00:04:15.440 See, on the podcast here, this is September 4th, 2020. I want to zoom in so you see the date.
00:04:21.300 September 4th, 2020. It's myself, it's Adam, it's Tom Zenner. We're talking about Biden's tax plan
00:04:29.720 that he proposed seven months ago. Meaning, you're either somebody who voted and you said,
00:04:37.220 he'll never do this. They'll never raise the taxes. You were naive. Or you voted saying,
00:04:42.760 I hope they raise the taxes and he's keeping his commitments. Or you voted against him because you
00:04:48.240 feared this was going to happen, and it's happening. But regardless, everybody's in one
00:04:52.140 of three camps. And I read an email in this show that I got from Goldman Sachs. I want to play it
00:04:57.720 for you, only for the first few minutes. Let me put the speed on 1.5. If you want to slow it down,
00:05:03.860 you can slow it down on your end. But I'm going to listen to it on 1.5 so we can speed up this
00:05:07.240 process. So let's take a look at what we're talking about on this podcast episode.
00:05:13.160 Biden's tax plan. How about we talk about Biden's tax plan? So check this out.
00:05:15.380 Last week, I'm minding my own business. We're at our annual convention. We're preparing for it.
00:05:19.260 We've got a lot of stuff going on. I get an email from Goldman Sachs, from authorizer Goldman Sachs.
00:05:22.580 Good people there. We like them a lot. They look good for us. Every time we run them, very,
00:05:25.600 very helpful. This is not an article written by someone on HuffPost. This is not an article
00:05:30.140 written by a contributor on Forbes. This is from Goldman Sachs, talking about Biden's plan to prepare
00:05:34.680 CEOs, entrepreneurs, business owners on what is going to happen when this takes place.
00:05:38.700 Polls are trending. This is the email. Polls are trending in the Democratic Party's favor.
00:05:42.220 And while polls are unreliable, they have few questions around what happens to the financial
00:05:45.920 market if the Democrats take the White House and or the Senate. Politics aside, we are having
00:05:50.040 conversations with clients around what, if any, steps we should take over the next few
00:05:52.920 months. A few topics of note are below. Let's go through three of these topics with them,
00:05:55.900 okay, together. Number one, Biden team has published their tax plan, and it outlines increased
00:06:00.640 corporate tax rate, personal income rates increase, and capital gains tax rates increasing.
00:06:04.360 Specifically, the plan outlines an increase in long-term capital gains, which is what, anything
00:06:08.240 above one year. So you buy some, I buy a car for $500,000.
00:06:11.900 I sell it two years later for a million dollars, for $2 million, the capital gains taxes on
00:06:16.300 that is what? A million and a half. $500,000? Sell it for $2 million? I'm paying capital gains
00:06:19.800 on that additional million and a half I made.
00:06:21.020 The cost base is tax-free.
00:06:21.960 $1.5 million. Yes, exactly.
00:06:23.820 By the way, that is why it said in the article, if you look at the article we read a minute
00:06:28.540 ago, that is why it says getting ready for the $178 billion of selling ahead of the capital
00:06:34.380 gains tax hike. Why? Because if you sell now, you pay 23.9% on a million bucks, let's
00:06:41.880 say, which is $239,000. You get to keep the additional $761,000. But if you sell effective
00:06:51.460 January 1st, and let's just say they make this 2022, you would have to pay $439,000 instead
00:06:58.520 of $239,000. That's 2X-ing what you would have to pay. And on your million dollars, you would only
00:07:03.240 net $560,000. That's why here, it's important that people are selling off now, not waiting
00:07:11.660 till 2022. So let's continue.
00:07:13.660 So the long-term capital gains taxes from the current 20% is going to 39.6. So he's not
00:07:21.180 taking it from 20% to 25%.
00:07:22.540 They said this.
00:07:23.240 Not 30%. Not 35%.
00:07:24.300 For 39.6%.
00:07:25.380 Nobody should be surprised.
00:07:26.460 Taxes is what we're talking about. Nearly 2X increase, right? That's number one. Second
00:07:30.080 is he talks about the current gift of tax exclusion that stands at $11.4 million per person, roughly
00:07:34.520 $22 million per couple. And they're thinking about that this is going to go lower. During
00:07:37.880 Obama administration per person, that was $5 million. It's supposed to expire by 2025, but
00:07:41.160 he's saying Biden's probably going to speed up that process, and it's going to bring it
00:07:43.300 down to $5 million sooner. Okay? So this may not apply-
00:07:45.000 And they're thinking about making it even lower than that.
00:07:47.360 Then you go a little bit deeper here into the tax plan, and here's what you notice.
00:07:50.540 Biden would raise corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Corporate tax rate. That's seven
00:07:53.780 additional percent for corporate tax rate. Restore the top individual tax rate from 37%
00:07:57.120 to 39.6%. It went lower. It's going to go back to 39.6%. His tax plan would raise between
00:08:01.460 $3.35 trillion to $3.67 trillion over a decade.
00:08:04.220 Same thing you've been talking about.
00:08:05.440 In full, starting in 2021. Okay, let me say that one more time. That means $3.35 trillion of American
00:08:09.460 people is going to go to the government. That's really what that means.
00:08:11.160 Just so you know. $3.35 trillion over a decade. That's a lot of money.
00:08:14.140 Biden's tax plan is highly progressive, increasing taxes for the top 1% earners by 13% to 18%.
00:08:18.460 Okay? And then continuously for people who are at the bottom. It's like, well, Pat, I'm
00:08:21.200 not really affected by this. This is just for the rich people. Major proposals by Biden's
00:08:24.580 campaign would raise $1.6 to $1.9 trillion over a decade from corporations. $1 trillion
00:08:28.260 to $1 trillion will come from high earners on their income tax. $800 billion to $1 trillion
00:08:31.240 on Social Security taxes on high-wage earners. And then he's adding tax fees, fees on bank
00:08:35.460 fees, $100 billion, and a bunch of other things that he's doing. Meaning, taxes are going up.
00:08:38.280 When I told you the capital gains was going from $20 to $39.6 trillion, Adam, what was
00:08:40.880 your reaction to it?
00:08:41.700 You know, it's pretty unbelievable. Like I said before, the only reason that I personally
00:08:46.700 would vote for Trump is for the economy.
00:08:48.720 You mean taxes? This is the only reason. Taxes.
00:08:49.900 The only reason. Money guy. I don't find him likable. I don't find him credible.
00:08:53.880 Okay. Let me stop right there. If you want to watch the rest of it, we'll put the link
00:08:58.140 here for you to watch the video on this episode. But let's go back to this entire conversation
00:09:04.340 about what's going to happen with this. Remember earlier I said to you, there are three different
00:09:08.100 types of people, right? Those who know, they're aware that they're directly going to be impacted
00:09:12.740 by the tax plan, right? Corporate tax, where it's going for 21, 28. Somebody's got business
00:09:17.240 they want to sell or something they want to sell, you know, 20% to 39%, which is really
00:09:21.800 going from 23.9 to 43%. They're aware of it. Then there's a community of people who work
00:09:30.220 for somebody who is running businesses and is relying on them to make more with the money
00:09:37.440 that they have the capital gains. They know they're indirectly going to be affected by
00:09:41.500 it. And then there's those who are not aware that they're indirectly going to be affected
00:09:44.540 by it. Let's forget about the first camp. You know how they're going to be affected by
00:09:47.760 it. They already know they're getting ready to get, you know, the increase in taxes, what
00:09:52.800 they'll have to do, businesses, sell off stocks, all of that takes place. Let's talk about the
00:09:57.280 other two that are indirectly going to be affected by this. Now, how do you indirectly get affected
00:10:02.600 by this? I remember four or five years ago when the taxes dropped. Okay, when they dropped,
00:10:09.660 I had a meeting with my staff and I said, gang, did you guys hear about what happened with
00:10:12.560 taxes? You know, yeah, we heard it's going to go to 20%. Yes, capital gains. Did you hear
00:10:16.280 about what's going on with corporate taxes? Yeah, we heard it's going to go to 21%. Yes.
00:10:19.800 I said, do you know what we're doing? What are we doing? And I sat there and I had a conversation
00:10:24.080 with my staff. I said, look, for every month you've been with us, we're going to give you $100 up
00:10:28.760 to a certain amount of months. And they said, what do you mean? What do you mean by that? I said,
00:10:31.920 you're getting a $100 bonus up to a certain amount of months. We're getting a $100 bonus
00:10:36.100 for the amount of months you've been with us. And they're sitting there saying, are you serious?
00:10:38.760 And we started giving the bonuses out. And this is not like five employees. You're paying
00:10:42.200 this to a lot of people and those bonuses were paid out. Everybody said, why are we doing this?
00:10:46.260 I said, because when the company gets benefit in taxes, those benefits get passed down to everybody
00:10:52.160 else. Because of the tax cuts, we nearly tripled the amount of employees that we had because we
00:10:57.840 went and started hiring. And we didn't just hire paying lower wages. I had a meeting with my staff
00:11:03.700 and I said, I want to pay higher wages. Why? Because the money's flowing through us. I can go higher
00:11:11.060 and pay better wages. So rather than saying, hey, let's just kind of try to do this, get somebody
00:11:16.000 with a four-year degree, get somebody with an MBA on this, get somebody that's got more experience
00:11:19.780 on this, get somebody with five years experience, get somebody with 10 years experience, rather than
00:11:23.960 let's just get what we can in this area. So it means the company, me, us, small business
00:11:29.420 owners were more aggressive, being willing to pay more for talent to come and work with
00:11:34.520 them, work for them, right? That's the benefit. So when capital gains goes away, some of these
00:11:40.920 folks that are running companies, they're going to sit there and say, well, where's this money
00:11:43.820 going to come from? Maybe we're going to have to cut some staff. Maybe we're going to have
00:11:47.520 to cut some investment into the company. So maybe the government's going to invest money
00:11:51.360 into infrastructure. But I mean, we got to hold back a little bit and wait three to four
00:11:54.600 years and see what we're going to be doing with our finances, right?
00:11:58.080 And then you'll kind of see those effects taking place where, well, it's the company's
00:12:02.680 fault. So there's going to be a little bit of a division between employees working with
00:12:06.440 employers because they're going to say, they're right, all you care about is the money.
00:12:10.460 And the employer's like, listen, I typically have a little bit more money that I can deal
00:12:13.580 with with taxes to put into the business. But at this point of the game, we have to make
00:12:17.360 the decisions ourselves because we just lost 7% on our corporate tax rate. We just doubled
00:12:22.500 our capital gains. And if I'm affected by it, customers are affected by it, employees are
00:12:27.020 affected by it, I'm affected by it, everybody's affected by it. So we have to find somehow to
00:12:32.100 cut expenses. We have to find somehow to cut the spending that we have wherever it is.
00:12:37.560 There's going to be an indirect effect taking place there.
00:12:40.240 Now let's talk about the opposite side, which is the real question to be thinking about.
00:12:45.100 There's two philosophies, right? There's two philosophies. I talked about this briefly
00:12:49.020 on what happened with Mayor Garcetti. The philosophy is punishment. The philosophy is incentive.
00:12:54.920 I do believe the punishment, whatever way you create with taxes, you're punishing and you're
00:13:00.100 incentivizing people, right? If you lower taxes and you lower the taxes for small business owners,
00:13:06.100 you produce more small business owners because the incentive is, let me go take my life savings
00:13:12.060 and start a business. Because the incentive you're giving me is you're lowering my capital
00:13:16.980 gains. You're lowering my what? My corporate taxes. So I'm willing to put more money into
00:13:24.660 the business and take the risk. I'm willing to take that money out and go start a business.
00:13:28.980 Incentive. If you punish and you double capital gains, you increase corporate tax, you increase
00:13:35.300 everything up and you're punishing, there are side effects to this. The side effects to this
00:13:40.220 is the following. Watch what happens. So think about the states that businesses are in today
00:13:46.260 that don't pay state taxes. Think about those states, okay? Let's go to those states first,
00:13:50.820 which is what? Texas, Tennessee, Nevada, Florida, whatever those seven states are that you're not
00:13:56.960 paying any state taxes in, right? So imagine you own a small business there and they're sitting
00:14:01.300 there saying, well, you know, the Biden tax plan, what is it going to do? I'm, you know,
00:14:05.500 I have to pay capital gains. It's doubling for me. I'm going from 20 to 39.6 plus to Obamacare,
00:14:09.880 3.9 states, 43% that I'm paying for capital gains. Corporate tax rates going from 21 to 28.
00:14:15.280 Even with the states that don't have state taxes, they're affected by this. But the problem is not
00:14:21.180 those states. Let me tell you what the problem is. The problem is with the states that are already
00:14:25.960 paying and charging a lot for taxes. So for those of you that love states and you live in Oregon,
00:14:34.380 you live in New York, you live in California, if you thought due to COVID people left your state,
00:14:42.280 the people who are taking and making money in capital gains and running businesses to make up
00:14:49.060 that 20% increase in capital gains, they will go and avoid that 13.9% in California and they'll go
00:14:57.680 right next door to Nevada. And yes, they'll lose still 7% or 6%, but they'll leave California.
00:15:04.280 They will leave New York and come to Florida and Miami will boom. South Florida will boom
00:15:09.760 because they're avoiding that additional taxes that they have to pay in New York. Illinois will take a hit. 0.81
00:15:15.080 You got Oregon will take a hit. So there will be a even more mass exodus. A lot of people left New
00:15:22.840 York and California because of how COVID was handled, meaning shut down, shut down, shut down,
00:15:28.160 restaurants, restaurants, restaurants. Nobody left New York and California because of taxes. Let's
00:15:33.360 understand that part. People left New York and California simply because the over regulations,
00:15:39.520 regulations. But watch what happens. 2020, lots of people leave New York and California due to
00:15:46.020 overregulation. In 2021, people are not leaving California and New York for overregulation because
00:15:51.480 the market's going to be opening up 2022. They're going to be leaving New York and California because
00:15:56.260 of over taxes. So what are Florida and Texas and Tennessee and these people going to be doing?
00:16:01.600 Nevada people going to be doing? They're going to be upset, but they're going to have to adjust.
00:16:04.400 They're going to have to pivot. They're not going to be happy about it, but they're going to have to
00:16:07.480 make long-term adjustments and go figure out a way, a strategy to sit there and whatever their
00:16:11.940 strategy is going to be. But this hurts the states that I talked about even more and it's back to
00:16:20.300 back to back. Now, can these taxes pass Senate with 50 seats? I don't know. House is proposing.
00:16:28.100 Can they pass it? They're short. Will it make it past Joe Manchin? Probably not. If you follow Joe
00:16:33.940 Manchin's story, Joe is not somebody that's going to be just sitting there saying, oh, I'm a Democrat.
00:16:37.480 No matter what. He even said there's about six or seven people that are probably not going to agree
00:16:42.040 with this and that are not going to vote for this on the Democratic side, on the Senate side.
00:16:46.680 But it's going to be interesting to see how this thing ends up turning out. I think it's a story
00:16:51.840 you ought to be following because it's going to directly or indirectly affect you and your family.
00:16:57.500 And if you are living in one of those states where you were worried and concerned and not happy about
00:17:03.380 the way COVID was handled and the politicians handled regulations, like imagine how many
00:17:08.300 restaurant owners took a hit. All these restaurant owners that took a hit that are dealing with
00:17:12.220 margins like this. Restaurant owners deal with four, five, six, seven percent margins. You want to
00:17:17.420 increase their corporate tax rate from 21 to 28? They're already dealing with small margins. Like
00:17:22.800 they're dealing with such small margins. Go to a restaurant, sit there, like actually sit there and
00:17:28.000 say, okay, I paid 12 bucks for this hamburger. Okay, no problem. How long did the waitress serve 1.00
00:17:32.740 my table? Okay, when I came and sat on the left, how long was she there? Say she helped you, you
00:17:37.800 were there for one hour. How many tables was she helping? Three other tables. That one burger 0.98
00:17:42.280 is 10 bucks. Say the other guys are also ordering burgers for 10 bucks. Okay, what's the cost for
00:17:46.760 the meat? What's the cost for the bread? What's the cost for the paper plate? What's the cost for
00:17:51.780 everything they brought you? What's her cost? What's the cost of the building? What's the cost of
00:17:57.040 electricity? What's the cost of water? What's the cost of cleaning crew? What's the cost of,
00:18:02.100 do you understand? Like, so then you want to, all these restaurants you shut down, you even want to
00:18:07.100 put it like you're putting salt on a wound. I don't know. It's not a, I don't know if I would be
00:18:12.320 taking this direction. Maybe they're overly confident about midterms because they don't think
00:18:17.700 anyone on the right is going to win the midterms with house. And maybe they're right. We don't know yet,
00:18:22.200 but they're playing their cards and pushing this agenda as if they're determined that everything's going to be
00:18:26.820 on their side. But for those of you who voted for this and you said, this will never happen.
00:18:33.600 Joe Biden, if there's anything to give him and his camp credit up, what they're proposing today,
00:18:39.800 it's not like it was just leaked yesterday. This was released to Goldman, Morgan, Merrill, everybody,
00:18:46.880 seven, eight months ago. And we all knew about it before we voted. So we're just getting exactly
00:18:53.140 what the majority of Americans voted for. Now you got to either hope your senator votes a different
00:18:59.060 direction, but more importantly, you got to have a strategy to know whether you're directly or
00:19:04.860 indirectly affected by this, how to make your own next moves. By the way, if you want to see the video
00:19:09.340 you saw on the podcast where Adam and I are talking, you want to kind of hear what we say the rest of
00:19:12.560 the time, click over here to watch that video. And if you want to watch the video, I did 10 reasons to
00:19:16.880 consider moving to another state. And you're actually getting more serious about wanting to make another move to
00:19:21.500 another state. Click over here to watch that video. With that being said, have a great day, everybody.
00:19:25.980 Take care. Bye-bye.