Valuetainment - July 28, 2025


＂Tactical Nuclear Weapons＂ - Chris Cappy PREDICTS Putin’s Next Move In Ukraine War


Episode Stats

Length

9 minutes

Words per Minute

163.66643

Word Count

1,485

Sentence Count

77

Hate Speech Sentences

4


Summary

In this episode, we discuss the possibility of war between the United States and China, and the potential for conflict in the region, including the possibility that China invades Taiwan and Russia invades the Baltic states, and how that could affect U.S. relations with Taiwan.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 What's the one war you're worried about that could potentially happen?
00:00:03.820 What's the one that could get very nasty?
00:00:05.880 Is there anything out there that you hear about Taiwan, China, you hear the chips,
00:00:10.000 you hear all these other things.
00:00:11.040 What's the one that as you're doing your due diligence and research on this,
00:00:13.740 you're like, oh, shit, when that one takes off, that's going to be ugly.
00:00:18.600 The NATO Secretary General just brought up, I think, what was exactly on point,
00:00:23.700 which is the possibility that China invades Taiwan and at the same time Russia does some kind of military action
00:00:33.660 against one of the Baltic states, and it's a coordinated attack,
00:00:38.020 and that would seek to stretch American resources and personnel thin
00:00:43.440 because how do you respond to situations in both parts of the world?
00:00:49.000 That, I think, is something that they believe could happen in the next three years,
00:00:56.360 which is when the intelligence community assesses that China will be basically at its most,
00:01:04.000 at probably its peak of its power.
00:01:06.380 So if China were to invade Taiwan, it might be in their best interest to do it in the next three years,
00:01:14.900 sometime in that window.
00:01:16.120 Really?
00:01:16.480 They believe that is when they'll have the most favorable demographic conditions,
00:01:23.300 economic conditions, and their investment in their military power
00:01:27.800 will be at a point where they're ready to invade.
00:01:30.520 Will they do it?
00:01:32.160 Maybe, maybe not, but...
00:01:34.500 Is that just another war or is that a big war?
00:01:39.160 And if they're saying some Baltic, like, where are they talking about?
00:01:43.400 Well, Estonia, Russia would invade mass forces on the border with Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania,
00:01:51.360 and try...
00:01:52.540 Basically, they're very small countries with small standing forces, well-trained and well-motivated,
00:01:58.480 but there are tripwire forces there, essentially.
00:02:01.680 So the idea would be if Russia were to push in, there really wouldn't be much you could do short of nuclear weapons.
00:02:09.500 But something I think that we're learning more and more in the last three, four years
00:02:15.140 is that our tolerance and threshold for war below nuclear weapons is a lot higher than we originally thought.
00:02:23.340 So Russia, for instance, has taken a beating, and at one point they were retreating full on.
00:02:32.520 And Ukraine was, during their first counteroffensive, they were capturing a lot of territory back,
00:02:37.600 and it looked like the Russian forces, you might recall, looked like they might fully crumble at one point.
00:02:43.320 And they assessed that it was a 50-50 chance that they were going to use tactical nuclear weapons.
00:02:48.840 They were planting the seeds, saying that Ukraine was going to use some kind of dirty bomb.
00:02:53.340 It looked very likely, but it didn't happen.
00:02:57.280 India and Pakistan just had war recently and attacked each other's nuclear...
00:03:04.500 India sent missiles at Pakistan's nuclear sites, and no nuclear warfare happened.
00:03:11.980 I think it wouldn't be unlikely to believe that the United States and China could have some kind of battle over Taiwan
00:03:20.100 and it not be nuclear weapons, which I think is almost scary because it makes it more likely that they might assess
00:03:29.780 that it wouldn't be the worst thing to do.
00:03:33.420 Pakistan and India are top six, top seven most nuclear weapons, if I'm not mistaken.
00:03:38.540 Both of them have a few hundred. One's got 40 or 50 more than the other one, whatever the number is, Rob,
00:03:45.120 if you want to pull it up. I don't know what the number is, but it's got to be right.
00:03:48.100 180 and 170.
00:03:49.300 Okay, 180 and 170, 10 away from each other, so six and seven.
00:03:54.680 But would it be smart for China to try to do it when Trump's president,
00:03:57.720 or you got to wait to see until Newsom, Pritzker, Vance, or somebody else is president?
00:04:01.780 I don't know how much the administration goes into their thinking in China.
00:04:08.840 You think so?
00:04:09.360 It might, under any president in America, the policy towards Taiwan has surprisingly been very steadfast.
00:04:22.220 It's been this consistent form of strategic ambiguity here that we have.
00:04:28.360 And a lot of times people wonder, like, what is the United States even doing in Taiwan?
00:04:33.700 We used to have 30,000 soldiers stationed in Taiwan.
00:04:36.360 We used to have a huge military presence there.
00:04:39.720 And going back, like, we've had forces there since World War II when we helped China defeat Japan.
00:04:48.560 And we've had interest there in the South China Sea that we've been,
00:04:53.860 China's been aggressive to a lot of the internationally recognized borders.
00:04:58.260 And so ever since then, we've consistently sent aid and defensive weapons to Taiwan.
00:05:09.040 So whether it's Trump, Biden, Obama, I think they would face a very similar response under any of the American presidents.
00:05:18.560 It's one of the things that kind of crosses the political divide.
00:05:22.780 I think a part of it is also you think the president with strong, hard-line negotiation could tip off a war if you negotiate too strongly,
00:05:37.040 if you are too aggressive with your tariffs, if you're – you think that could prompt it or no?
00:05:46.980 That's not going to do it.
00:05:47.800 Because on the flip side, it's kind of like if you negotiate – if you do attack Taiwan now while we're doing negotiation,
00:05:54.160 kind of like what the president said right now.
00:05:55.960 I don't know whether – agree or not.
00:05:59.660 He said, you know, if the Washington commanders don't go back to the Redskins, we won't be funding whatever.
00:06:05.880 What do they need from them, Rob?
00:06:07.060 I think there's something that they need.
00:06:09.700 He says, what's his position with the commanders and – it's Trump's effort to squash D.C.'s NFL –
00:06:16.420 that the Washington commander would do the Redskins, the progressive activists who want to kill the plan to build a franchise and shine a new stadium.
00:06:24.860 I didn't believe at first that he would do something that stupid.
00:06:28.360 They're destroying the chance of bringing a stadium, and that's fine with me because I don't want a stadium.
00:06:33.360 Oh, so he's saying if you don't go back to the Redskins, we're not going to bring a stadium to you, okay?
00:06:39.260 And we're not going to prove the city to build a stadium.
00:06:42.240 All right.
00:06:43.440 So is this a war he wants to pick or not?
00:06:46.320 Who knows?
00:06:46.820 He gets himself in a lot of weird things, right?
00:06:50.340 To me, I still don't look at the Washington as Washington commanders.
00:06:53.620 I look at them as the Redskins.
00:06:55.120 I look at it as Mark Rippon.
00:06:57.340 That's who I look at.
00:06:58.060 Curtis Martin, I think they had a running back.
00:07:00.580 Was Curtis Martin ever with the Redskins at one point?
00:07:02.960 He used to be with the Patriots, but I think he was also with the Redskins at some point.
00:07:06.940 I may be wrong.
00:07:07.620 I don't know why I'm saying Redskins.
00:07:08.920 I think he was.
00:07:10.060 New York Jets and the Patriots.
00:07:11.400 Okay.
00:07:11.680 So who was the running back with the Redskins?
00:07:14.300 They had a real good running back with the Redskins, whoever he was.
00:07:16.800 Anyways, you know, when he gets in and he says, well, listen, if you do X, Y, Z to Taiwan, guess what?
00:07:24.060 We're going to do such and such to you.
00:07:27.260 Oh, Peterson, Clinton Portis.
00:07:28.640 That's his name that was there.
00:07:30.040 We're going to do X, Y, Z to you, right?
00:07:32.660 Do you think President Trump could be a guy that could prevent China from attacking Taiwan purely with the leverage on negotiations?
00:07:40.960 Yeah, absolutely.
00:07:41.920 And funnily enough, it would come a lot, I think, from the cooperation between the two countries.
00:07:48.700 So very recently we saw they relaxed the restrictions on H20 NVIDIA cards, I believe it was, or maybe it was H10.
00:07:58.860 A high-powered card that is used for AI, and the theory is, hey, maybe if we get them hooked on our AI chips, there'll be less likelihood of war.
00:08:13.880 So Biden was going the exact opposite direction.
00:08:16.820 He was cutting, basically trying to decouple.
00:08:19.140 I would be of the mind that possibly if you can find a way to avoid decoupling, I think it makes war, it pushes it back a little bit, makes it less likely from happening.
00:08:29.860 I think Trump certainly has a position right now where he could push the war, kick it further down.
00:08:37.240 I think so.
00:08:38.380 I think it's dumb for China to be able to do anything right now with the war.
00:08:41.600 Hi, I'm Chris Cappy.
00:08:42.600 You probably know me from the YouTube channel Cappy Army.
00:08:45.180 I'm now on Minect.
00:08:46.540 You can find me there and you can ask me any questions about war corresponding, if you're interested in how to get into that, geopolitics, defense industry, entrepreneurialism, anything you want to chat about, I'm on there.
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