Valuetainment - April 02, 2026


＂The World Economy CANNOT Survive＂ - Iran Hormuz Oil Crisis Could Trigger GLOBAL MELTDOWN


Episode Stats

Length

13 minutes

Words per Minute

175.6231

Word Count

2,377

Sentence Count

184

Misogynist Sentences

2

Hate Speech Sentences

3


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode of the podcast, we discuss the recent events surrounding the election of President Trump and the potential impact it could have on the Iran situation. We also talk about the impact of the sanctions on China and Europe, and the implications for the rest of the world.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:27.540 And, you know, we've heard about this for so many years.
00:00:30.000 We need war against Iran.
00:00:31.380 We need war against Iran.
00:00:32.400 This has been said so many times.
00:00:33.740 It doesn't matter who's president.
00:00:35.580 That's been around as a major policy force.
00:00:37.700 And it looks like Charlie Kirk was the first casualty in this campaign.
00:00:44.880 You're going there?
00:00:45.720 Well, you know, he was very much against this war.
00:00:48.320 You think you're saying Charlie could have been a casualty in this?
00:00:51.260 It looks like it.
00:00:52.200 Just look at the amazing investigation done by Candace Owens.
00:00:55.840 Yeah.
00:00:56.220 She's done an amazing investigation.
00:00:58.500 She's asking questions.
00:00:59.740 Right.
00:01:00.000 And, you know, we should be allowed to ask questions.
00:01:01.420 That's, in fact, the phrase from Charlie Kirk himself.
00:01:03.840 We should always ask questions.
00:01:05.300 Right, right.
00:01:06.200 And he was close to President Trump.
00:01:08.540 He had clearly a lot of voting power, young people.
00:01:12.780 And he continued, particularly in the last year of his life, to argue stronger and stronger,
00:01:18.680 don't do this.
00:01:19.440 We don't want to get into this quagmire war against Iran.
00:01:22.740 But now that he is in here, what I'm trying to find out from you is, who has power now?
00:01:28.340 Who needs who now?
00:01:30.000 is nato getting so desperate that they're going to go closer to china like
00:01:33.620 who are they going to go and say we got to figure out it would open up this relationship with russia
00:01:37.980 like where are you at with natural just headline yesterday on reuters uh european union natural gas
00:01:45.160 imports from russia up 22 percent year over year so that's where it's going to push them i think
00:01:50.280 on some level is is they are they're desperate for energy to to richard's point they and and the
00:01:56.160 the hard part is, is energy and food are higher on Maslow's hierarchy of needs than stocks,
00:02:05.180 bonds, et cetera. And the nature of the economic system we've had over the last
00:02:09.440 30, 25 years in particular, there's something called the net international investment position.
00:02:16.240 It's simply a tallying as a balance sheet of how much do foreigners own of U.S. assets versus
00:02:22.600 netted against how much we own of foreigners' assets.
00:02:25.940 And in the first Iraq war, this number was probably negative 7% of GDP, of U.S. GDP.
00:02:34.600 In other words, foreigners owned roughly 7% more of U.S. GDP of our assets than we owned of theirs.
00:02:40.520 No big deal.
00:02:41.440 Second Gulf War, the number was probably up to 10%, maybe 12%.
00:02:45.160 Great financial crisis, the number was probably 15%.
00:02:48.180 since the great financial crisis, we have not had so much a recovery that has been talked about,
00:02:54.300 well, the U.S. has recovered so much better than the rest of the world. Yes, nominally. But what
00:02:58.380 really happened can be seen in this net international investment position balance
00:03:02.400 sheet, which is we went from a negative 15% of GDP, net international investment position,
00:03:07.740 to today we're at negative 87%. So we didn't recover. We just hocked our family silver to China,
00:03:14.100 to europe to japan to everybody that ran trade surpluses against us so the average person that
00:03:18.980 paying attention to the simplified for them why is this so important why is it so important is
00:03:23.200 because by cutting off european energy and southeast asian energy what this means is that
00:03:32.280 they now have no way to get enough energy they're going to have to pay a lot more for energy and
00:03:36.820 they will do anything to get it. What are they going to do? They own $70 trillion in U.S. dollar
00:03:43.880 assets gross, $27 trillion in U.S. dollar assets net. They are going to sell stocks. Who's they?
00:03:51.240 The whole rest of the world. Europe, China, everyone that is short energy.
00:03:55.240 Are you going to de-dollarization? Is that kind of where you're going right now to?
00:03:57.820 Well, it's not even de-dollarization. It is simply a desperate reaction. You have a pile
00:04:03.900 of stocks and bonds, you lose your job, you need to feed your kids. Do you let your kids starve or
00:04:11.360 do you sell your stocks and bonds to feed your kids? That's not even a choice. That is the
00:04:15.600 position Europe is now in. That is the position Southeast Asia, Japan. And this is why you can
00:04:20.240 see in this, people thought when this war started that treasury yields, long-term treasury bond
00:04:25.220 yields would drop, right? Risk off. What have they done? They've gone straight up at the fastest pace
00:04:29.880 in a long time, and they're going to keep going up. You are going to have an oil shock where rates
00:04:34.380 go up, stocks go down, and it's going to devolve into a severe, people are saying, well, we're in
00:04:39.420 the best position. Nominally, vis-a-vis energy, absolutely. But this is going, the world is
00:04:46.140 connected in a way, it is going to spiral into U.S. asset markets, bond yields, borrowing costs,
00:04:54.280 they're all going to go much higher. And it all ties back to Richard's point of now the second
00:04:58.880 energy lifeline is cut. So now they're in a desperate situation. The Europeans have been
00:05:03.340 running surpluses against America for what, 50 years, 70 years, 80 years? And a lot of those
00:05:08.380 surpluses have been deployed into US stocks and bonds. Now that's their rainy day fund. That's
00:05:13.800 their piggy bank. So what business do you run? You have clients, institutional clients. So maybe
00:05:18.960 walk us through what business you run. I'm a consultant. I'm a macroeconomic consultant
00:05:24.000 for institutional, high net worth, and sophisticated individual investors.
00:05:28.700 What are they asking you?
00:05:29.560 What questions do they ask you, and how do you consult them?
00:05:32.080 It's not a fee-based model.
00:05:33.800 It's a subscription-based model.
00:05:34.960 So I write two reports a week, and I basically am focused on current events
00:05:42.120 and the implications for markets in these types of manners.
00:05:44.920 Where do you stand with what's going to happen with the market next?
00:05:47.840 With everything, with gas for, okay, if it's at 112 right now,
00:05:51.760 We know gas is probably going to $4.25 to $4.50.
00:05:54.000 We're going to start seeing five some places if it continues like this.
00:05:57.360 Markets dipping.
00:05:59.300 Has the market opened up yet, Rob, or no?
00:06:02.320 What is the market right now if we look it up?
00:06:04.880 It's got to be down big.
00:06:07.200 Okay, the market right now is down.
00:06:09.880 Dow is down $6.67.
00:06:12.100 So Dow is down a 0.4.
00:06:14.540 NASDAQ two points.
00:06:16.520 S&P 1.46.
00:06:18.140 What do you see happening next?
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00:07:19.960 If you look at the drop in oil consumption, this is a supply-side drop in oil consumption.
00:07:31.420 This isn't because we're in a recession and so demand has dropped.
00:07:34.560 If you look at oil consumption year over year globally, going back to 1965, global oil consumption has only been negative three times.
00:07:46.980 1973 oil shock it was down one to two percent going from memory the 1980 double dip recession
00:07:53.760 that we had here in the u.s 15 percent interest rates etc it was down 4.3 percent year over year
00:07:59.240 and in covid when we shut down the world it was down 9.2 percent year over year
00:08:03.420 right now the oil supply out of the gulf depending on what net adjustments you make for strategic
00:08:12.700 petroleum reserve rundowns, et cetera, we have lost roughly 7% to 11% of the world's oil and
00:08:20.340 its supply side. What does this mean for markets? This is going to sound hyperbolic, but it's not.
00:08:26.960 It's literal math. It's guaranteed double entry bookkeeping math supply chain reality. The world
00:08:35.060 economy cannot survive a 7% to 11% loss of oil supply. It will not survive. We can debate,
00:08:43.180 is Europe going to go first and collapse? Is Southeast Asia going to go first and collapse?
00:08:47.620 Will America collapse first? But the global economy, it is a certainty it will collapse
00:08:54.500 if we keep oil supplies down 7%. What's the likelihood we go there and we stay there? What's
00:09:01.260 the timeline like if we go to 7 11 for how long well we've been there for six weeks and I think
00:09:06.540 if we get to mid-April like you're already seeing flights I just woke up this morning a discount
00:09:11.900 airline and out of London Gatwick canceled all flights can't get fuel so now you're going to
00:09:16.740 start having tourism fall you agree with supply chains that's very true it was announced in the
00:09:23.100 UK that the last shipment of kerosene was just made this week and there's no further known
00:09:30.900 shipment arriving in the UK, which is pretty crazy. But it also tells you that this is a policy
00:09:37.840 outcome because nobody seems to care. There's no countermeasures. There's alternative ways.
00:09:42.820 There's things you could do if you wanted to. They don't. Why? Because this feeds into this
00:09:47.480 other agenda that's ongoing and that we mustn't forget. We mustn't take our eyes off that.
00:09:52.320 And that is, you know, I've just explained sort of the background with the European Union. It's
00:09:56.880 actually central planners wanting to centrally plan more and more. And it looks like they're
00:10:04.440 going to use this opportunity to impose digital controls and the types of restrictions of
00:10:10.320 individual freedoms that will be at least as bad as during this COVID PSYOP or worse. Of course,
00:10:17.760 now under the excuse of, oh, there's no energy. You have to stay at home. You can't use your car.
00:10:22.440 You think that kind of stuff is a possibility?
00:10:24.100 It looks like that's what they want, because there were so many policy decisions actually ahead of this closure of the Strait of Hormuz that already indicated that actually they want to restrict energy usage.
00:10:37.880 This is who?
00:10:38.420 This is you?
00:10:39.880 This is the European administrators.
00:10:42.200 I wouldn't say leaders, because they're not really the decision makers.
00:10:45.320 Who's debating them?
00:10:45.880 Who's arguing with them and disagreeing with them?
00:10:48.080 Nobody's arguing with them, because it's a dictatorship.
00:10:51.120 They can do anything.
00:10:52.860 They can put somebody in prison without legal due cause.
00:10:55.960 They can sanction people without legal due cause.
00:11:00.440 And that's what's happening already.
00:11:02.640 You know, that's why they're cracking down on freedom of speech.
00:11:07.340 You know, this Digital Services Act.
00:11:08.720 What do you live today?
00:11:11.080 Switzerland, spending time in Hungary as well.
00:11:14.420 You feel safe there?
00:11:15.780 So far, yes.
00:11:16.780 But, you know, Switzerland is also under enormous pressure from the US and from the EU to cozy up to them
00:11:21.940 and essentially implement whatever they are doing.
00:11:24.620 There's this legal framework.
00:11:26.540 Are you seeing friends and family leave in the EU?
00:11:30.780 Well, I think what I see is a lot of people thinking,
00:11:34.140 should we stay within the EU?
00:11:36.140 There's a lot of Germans who want to move away.
00:11:39.520 And also, first of all, they're sending their money out.
00:11:42.380 And it's not because it's some kind of hidden money, black money or anything.
00:11:45.820 No, this is post-tax official money.
00:11:48.480 You just don't want the German government to, and they're talking about it, taking people's money.
00:11:54.040 You know, that's how bad it is.
00:11:55.860 So in other words, yes, what we see is the imposition of controls and restrictions under this excuse.
00:12:03.540 It's almost as if it's welcome that the Strait of Hormuz is now being closed because these administrators in Europe who are running the show for the deep state
00:12:14.920 seemed to have been given the task sheet to implement controls anyway.
00:12:19.580 And it's like, oh, great, we have this fantastic excuse now.
00:12:22.140 Oh, it's too bad we're out of kerosene now.
00:12:24.960 And yeah, so now it's just there's no choice.
00:12:27.180 We have to do this.
00:12:28.260 And of course, they will blame it on President Trump.
00:12:30.880 They will blame it on all sorts of other forces.
00:12:33.460 But they love it, and they're doing nothing against it.
00:12:36.700 Because literally, you could change the situation dramatically.
00:12:40.740 President Putin has repeatedly told the Europeans,
00:12:45.500 you notice that operation that was done,
00:12:48.320 the terrorist attack on the Nord Stream 2,
00:12:50.880 didn't completely destroy all the pipelines.
00:12:53.660 There's one pipeline that is intact.
00:12:56.140 We're happy to open it and deliver,
00:12:58.080 even at the original price that the contract that was made
00:13:00.800 was signed a long time ago, which is super cheap.
00:13:03.580 He said that.
00:13:04.860 What's the reaction?
00:13:05.880 And essentially, they're not allowed to say, yes, please.
00:13:08.160 and Richard Werner's on Manect.
00:13:09.780 If you want to ask him any questions,
00:13:11.840 we're going to put his QR code around here
00:13:13.300 and the link as well.
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