Valuetainment - “They Control The World’s Oil” - Iran’s Strait Of Hormuz Power THREATENS Global Economy

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00:00:30.000 What power did Iran have with Strait of Hormuz with oil pre the attack?

00:00:35.240 And what level of power will they have with Strait of Hormuz post-attack, depending on negotiation?

00:00:40.600 What do you think is going to happen?

00:00:42.020 I mean, they obviously, I think they always had this power just because geographically, like you've done great work on that.

00:00:49.820 Geographically, I mean, it's so easy for them to control because of the sheer, you know, the mountainous region of it. 0.97

00:00:55.060 it's almost impossible for, you know, a foreign invader to put boots on the ground and actually 0.98

00:00:59.080 control that region the way that Iran can. So, I mean, there's a lot of strategists who have 0.98

00:01:06.640 known this, and it's why I think people were always very tepid about doing something, you know,

00:01:12.940 invading Iran, in part because this disruption was always so front and center. Going forward

00:01:18.320 now, though, it's just it's become so obvious to everybody that, hey, Iran plays a much bigger

00:01:23.380 role in the global oil market than they than we suspected. And that's not going to change going

00:01:28.460 forward. Big X factor, though, is the drones, because it's not even like you have to put a

00:01:32.220 blockade there now, like before people worried about them blockading or putting mines in the

00:01:35.720 water. But now they can make these drones in their garage for a couple thousand dollars. And 0.89

00:01:39.900 just the mere threat of that will stop people from going through. So I think the drones have

00:01:43.360 made the straight form was chokehold even more. Yeah, it's interesting how much the technology

00:01:46.760 starting to change now and influence the way the militaries are fighting, because you're seeing

00:01:51.100 these autonomous vehicles increasingly play such a big role that even a poorer country can actually

00:01:57.120 defend itself pretty well against the united states a ten thousand dollar drone could take

00:02:00.960 out a multi-billion dollar ship great case study it is such a great case study so guess what i'm a

00:02:06.800 small i'm a small oil nation i will never have enough uh troops to do anything in the in the

00:02:15.640 name of traditional warfare, nor will anybody sell me airplanes. I can't get the Mirages and

00:02:23.240 the Exocés, all those things that used to happen where Arab countries would buy from France. I can't 1.00

00:02:28.620 get that, nor can I get stuff from the United States. But I've got billions and billions and

00:02:32.420 billions of dollars. I will never have enough troops. There's your case study, Pat. But guess

00:02:36.100 what? All of a sudden, overnight, I got 10,000 drones. I got 10,000 drones. Guess what? Little

00:02:42.400 all me is now a military power

00:02:44.580 in my region. And the only question

00:02:46.560 is what payload do I have on them

00:02:48.340 and what is the sophistication of the

00:02:50.400 electronics to keep

00:02:51.940 because you can shoot down drones with

00:02:54.420 a variety of electronic things.

00:02:56.440 But this is exactly what we're talking about.

00:02:58.320 It's no longer who's got the biggest army

00:03:00.140 line up on both sides like Rome

00:03:02.380 or Breitbart. The question, Tom,

00:03:04.880 for right, for sure,

00:03:06.600 but how many of these shipping companies

00:03:08.460 are even going to trust the ceasefire?

00:03:10.400 Like here's one of the biggest ones. They're going to wait.

00:03:11.800 The story just came out five hours ago.

00:03:14.480 I don't understand why we're talking about shipping companies.

00:03:16.900 They didn't close the Gulf.

00:03:18.880 Lloyd's of London closed the Gulf.

00:03:20.300 The insurance guy closed it.

00:03:22.080 So if Mayer is cautious on Straits of Hormuz, my question is, do they have insurance and from who?

00:03:26.920 That's really what closed the member.

00:03:29.560 Lloyd said, you're not covered on insurance.

00:03:31.400 And everybody said, well, I don't want the risk.

00:03:33.100 And I have no insurance.

00:03:33.880 The president said he would take the risk.

00:03:35.360 And we said that we would make the United States Insurance Company.

00:03:38.760 And then they said, well, we'll worry about the live.

00:03:41.800 the people too that was the next excuse after the insurance but um i mean through the prism

00:03:45.860 of the insurance company would you feel comfortable insuring boats going through the rob how many have

00:03:49.960 already gone through this morning do we have has anything reported that anything's gone through

00:03:55.840 yet there was i saw a report right before i left the hotel that there was a ship going through there

00:03:59.440 was one going through you know where it was from i'm not sure can you pull up rob to see who it was

00:04:04.680 it's the straight they have a straight tracker sounds like straight jacket if you say it fast

00:04:10.780 Restricted today.

00:04:11.580 I just want to know how many went through today.

00:04:13.820 Are there any?

00:04:14.880 So it says 10 ships in transit.

00:04:19.540 Is there any other place to go see this, Rob, if anything's gone through?

00:04:22.960 10 ships in transit.

00:04:24.860 Interesting.

00:04:25.460 If Colin is saying one went through, I'd be curious to know who that one was and where from.

00:04:30.160 Right here, ships transiting now, seven.

00:04:32.100 Seven right now.

00:04:33.060 Over the last 24 hours.

00:04:34.400 10.

00:04:35.460 Normal daily activity.

00:04:37.880 They're at 10%.

00:04:39.540 So can you find out if those 10 that went the last 24 hours paid anything to Iran?

00:04:46.020 Those 10 that went through the last 24 hours, did they pay anything to Iran?

00:04:50.800 Great question.

00:04:51.820 I'm curious to know if they're already demanding that and if the world is organically accepting the terms.

00:04:59.260 You know, to say, look, just pay the guy.

00:05:00.660 I saw a report that Trump was saying that they're going to split the tolls.

00:05:04.480 I don't know how truthful that is, but he said he was going to try to negotiate some way.

00:05:09.540 split the tolls yes some ships have reportedly paid in some cases i don't know if that's a good

00:05:13.700 thing or not what do you think about that 50 50 split ownership i don't know it seems like a

00:05:17.980 trump thing this seems like sort of a classic government you know snafu where the government

00:05:23.020 does something overplays its hand and then all of a sudden they're taxing everybody because who

00:05:26.940 ultimately pays for all this stuff i mean taxes taxes don't get paid by by nobody taxes ultimately

00:05:32.660 get paid by people who are consuming so all of this you know what does it do in the long run

00:05:36.740 It drives up, you know, inflation marginally and ultimately people who consume oil end up paying for for all of this.

00:05:44.540 So I don't know. Yeah, those prices will get passed on to the consumer.

00:05:49.060 Exactly. Well, we'll see. I mean, look, the reality of it is, do you think the president's going to come out of this without him not seeming like the, you know, victor in the negotiation?

00:06:02.480 You think he's going to come?

00:06:03.340 Make it sound good.

00:06:04.140 Not sound.

00:06:04.980 It has to be.

00:06:05.840 Because today, guys will filter out sound versus it being good.

00:06:11.140 It has to be good.

00:06:13.240 Like, I can't see. 0.98

00:06:15.500 If any of those 10 terms happen, Iran won. 0.98

00:06:17.880 Yeah.

00:06:18.720 If that 10 stuff I just read, that happens, there's no way he's going to let that happen.

00:06:22.480 I'd be shocked if he did that.

00:06:23.260 There's no way he's going to let that happen.

00:06:25.120 There's no way he's going to let that happen.

00:06:26.480 I don't think.

00:06:27.400 I don't think he's going to let that happen.

00:06:28.600 I think at this point, Trump Trump's win is do they win the midterms?

00:06:34.760 Do they even split the midterms at this point?

00:06:36.880 Because now, I mean, God, a month ago, the Senate, there was almost no chance the Senate was going to go Democrat.

00:06:42.680 And in the last, you know, 10 days, it's 50 50 now, which is kind of crazy to think.

00:06:48.100 North Carolina, which he won three times, a guy's running in North Carolina, a senator, Democrat, who I think the last time he won by three points, the president did.

00:06:56.720 the North Carolina race is now going potentially Democrat, Senate race.

00:07:01.480 So I don't know.

00:07:02.700 To me, that's an economic issue.

00:07:04.100 To me, that is you.

00:07:05.920 Affordability.

00:07:06.780 And this is why I don't like the ceasefire.

00:07:08.800 The ceasefire, you know, somebody, I said last night on Twitter that the problem with

00:07:14.320 what's going on is that you've got a flow through effect economically from the way these

00:07:19.340 prices are going to be reported in things like CPI and in all the economic data where

00:07:25.460 you could get into a point where we're into, say, the middle of June, July, August, where

00:07:31.220 inflation is still high in all of the readings, in large part because the year-over-year oil

00:07:36.460 prices are just going to be so high in comparison.

00:07:39.160 You've got to get, I mean, you even look at the prices today, like people are saying,

00:07:42.200 oh, the price is down so much.

00:07:43.680 The price is still $92.

00:07:45.500 It was $60 six weeks ago.

00:07:47.780 So we're up 50%, you know, still.

00:07:50.420 So you need another 30%, 40% decline in oil prices to get back to just where we were.

00:07:56.760 And we already had an inflation problem before any of this started.

00:08:00.580 There was some tiptoeing by the Fed around, you know, ah, can we actually cut rates more?

00:08:05.640 Or do we need to start, you know, being more cautious about all this?

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00:08:46.520 Friday, April 10th to Wednesday, April 15th.

00:08:49.980 Sell it in store and online.

00:08:53.920 Is unemployment real?

00:08:55.540 There's all these things that handcuff the labor market looks weak.

00:08:58.500 You know, so there's so many things that were already going on.

00:09:01.060 And this kind of throws a wrench in so many of those narratives where, I mean,

00:09:04.560 you need oil back down to 60 bucks yesterday at this point.

00:09:11.480 Otherwise, I mean, with the ceasefire, the way traders are going to look at this,

00:09:14.360 They look at a ceasefire and they say, OK, we we know that the risks are reduced, but we need to hedge our bets still, because what if something transpires in the next two weeks where, you know, oil potentially goes back to one hundred and fifteen bucks?

00:09:28.440 So they're looking at this and they're they're kind of waffling on this that they're not going to oil traders aren't going to take this right back to 60 bucks anytime soon, because now they're looking at it and say, well, there's still there's still a two week window of risk here at least.

00:09:40.080 So I would have preferred to see something that was definitive,

00:09:43.940 that where, you know, you were able to actually look at this and say,

00:09:46.560 this is a done deal.

00:09:47.760 This isn't a ceasefire.

00:09:49.020 This is over.

00:09:50.220 And I mean, at least in terms of the economics of what's going on.

00:09:53.080 Yeah, because the pressure is never going to be as high as it was 24 hours ago.

00:09:56.480 Now it's gone.

00:09:58.000 And the time that you're able to negotiate exactly what you want is when.

00:10:02.100 And the pressure is at the highest.

00:10:03.400 You think the pressure is going to get any higher than 24 hours ago?

00:10:06.320 I don't think so.

00:10:06.820 I think you just lose a lot of leverage for negotiation.

00:10:11.420 There's time to break.

00:10:12.660 There's time to rest.

00:10:13.600 There's time to think.

00:10:14.500 There's time to re-strategize.

00:10:15.680 There's time now to think, make maneuvers, move people from different areas, assume what's going to happen next.

00:10:21.100 They've shown they're pretty ready for the east of Iran in case something happens with those mountains.

00:10:28.520 I don't know.

00:10:28.880 Look, my heart breaks.

00:10:30.000 Let me tell you where I go to.

00:10:31.540 Of course, I'm an American, but I was born and raised in Iran.

00:10:34.240 And when the Iran revolution happened and the war with Iraq, I sympathize with the families and the parents how scared they are today.

00:10:42.960 I saw the other day Armenians were celebrating Easter at an Armenian church.

00:10:51.220 And Armenians were in the church.

00:10:52.420 It reminded me of when I was a kid and we'd go to these churches with my mom and my sister or we'd go to this Assyrian church down the street from my grandmother's old house that she would live there.

00:11:03.080 Rosa with Johnny and Victor

00:11:05.300 and we would go to her house right after the church

00:11:07.440 and it was a great experience

00:11:08.540 and how afraid we were of what could happen

00:11:12.020 the wars when my dad would put the black tapes on the window

00:11:15.080 me and my sister, I would sleep right by the window

00:11:16.920 I had a yellow Porsche poster above my bed

00:11:20.540 when my dad would come and tape the windows

00:11:22.400 and I would ask, why are you taping the windows?

00:11:23.920 he says, because the blast is not going to cause the windows to go out if we tape them

00:11:27.680 you would come to every house, it's black tape windows there

00:11:30.380 I sympathize with these kids that just want to be free.

00:11:34.440 I sympathize with these parents that are there that just want to do the right thing for their kids.

00:11:40.020 That's hard, very hard.

00:11:42.560 And I'd love nothing more for them to have similar liberties and freedoms that we have here in America.

00:11:47.700 But unfortunately, as long as IRGC is in power, that'll never happen to them.

00:11:52.700 They don't think that way.

00:11:54.260 They are fanatical type of people.

00:11:57.600 And then the argument can be for people to say, you know, well, that's not our problem.

00:12:01.260 That's their problem.

00:12:02.080 I understand that logical libertarian argument.

00:12:04.220 Trust me, I used to be a libertarian full on.

00:12:06.640 I would see that.

00:12:07.400 And this morning I'm reading scripture and I come across Psalms.

00:12:11.340 And Psalms 82.4 says,

00:12:13.020 Rescue the weak and the needy, deliver them from the hand of the wicked. 0.96

00:12:17.560 Man, there's some wicked people in Iran, man, and they don't run it like you and I do. 0.99

00:12:22.920 They don't live their lives like we do. 0.91

00:12:24.660 But all we can do is pray.

00:12:27.240 There are certain things that happens in your life that is out of your hands.

00:12:31.820 And the only thing you can do in those moments is pray.

00:12:34.340 God is a big God, and he's done things that seem impossible to the average person.

00:12:38.600 And my faith is always going to be there to see what miracle could happen here.

00:12:44.100 Anyways, we'll see.

00:12:44.980 Many times when people think about Valuetainment, all they think about is a podcast.

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Valuetainment - April 09, 2026

“They Control The World’s Oil” - Iran’s Strait Of Hormuz Power THREATENS Global Economy

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